OAG Changes 5/26/2019:AA Exits CLT-GDL,PHL-EYW/SRQ/MLB to daily;AV Exits MIA-SAL;SY Extension;UA Tweaks

enilria · Sun May 26, 2019 12:30 pm

FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

9X ACK-HVN JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.2[0]
9X ACK-OWD JUN 0>0.5[0] JUL 0>0.7[0] AUG 0>0.7[0] SEP 0>0.7[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]
9X ACK-PVD JUN 0>0.7[0] JUL 0>0.9[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>0.5[0]

AA AVL-DFW JAN 0.2>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]
AA CLT-EYW NOV 1.0>1.3[1.7] DEC 1.0>3[2] JAN 1.0>5[4] FEB 1.0>5[4]
No resumption
**AA CLT-GDL JAN 0.8>0[0.8] FEB 1.0>0[1.0]
AA CLT-PBI DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>6[5] FEB 4>6[6]
AA CLT-RSW DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>6[5] FEB 4>6[6]
AA CLT-SRQ JAN 4>5[3] FEB 4>5[4]
AA CUN-DFW JAN 6>7[6] FEB 6>7[6]
AA CYS-DFW OCT 2>1.1[0] NOV 2>1.0[0.9] DEC 2>1.0[1.0] JAN 2>1.0[1.0] FEB 2>1.0[1.0]
How big is the terminal in EYW?
*AA EYW-PHL DEC 0.1>0.5[0] JAN 0.1>1.0[0] FEB 0.2>1.0[0.1]
Must be thinking of ways to use those slots after the construction ends
*AA JFK-RIC NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>3[0] JAN 0>3[0] FEB 0>3[0]
AA MIA-PLS SEP 3>2[3]
AA MIA-PTY JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[3]
AA MIA-SNU DEC 2>1.5[1.1]
*AA MLB-PHL DEC 0.1>0.5[0] JAN 0.1>1.0[0] FEB 0.2>1.0[0.1]
*AA PHL-SRQ DEC 0.3>0.6[0] JAN 0.3>1.0[0.2] FEB 0.3>1.0[0.3]

AC MCO-YHZ DEC 0.3>0.5[0.3] FEB 0.6>0.8[0.5]
AC MCO-YOW JAN 0.7>1.0[0.7]
AC PHX-YUL NOV 0.6>0.8[0.6]
AC RSW-YUL NOV 0>0.3[0]
AC RSW-YYZ NOV 1.5>2[1.5] DEC 1.8>2[1.8] JAN 1.6>2[1.6]
AC SRQ-YYZ JAN 0.7>1.0[0.7]
AC TPA-YHZ DEC 0.2>0.4[0.2] JAN 0.2>0.6[0.2] FEB 0.4>0.9[0.4]
AC TPA-YOW JAN 0.3>0.5[0.3] FEB 0.3>0.7[0.3]
AC TPA-YUL NOV 0>0.4[0]
AC TPA-YYZ JAN 1.6>2[1.6]

*AM DTW-GDL JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0]
*AM DTW-SLP JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0]

AN ABQ-SVC JAN 0.6>0.5[2] FEB 0.3>0[2]
AN PHX-SVC JAN 0.4>0.2[0.8] FEB 0.3>0[1.0]

AT BOS-CMN DEC 0.4>0.7[0]

AV BOG-MCO OCT 1.0>1.5[1.0]
*AV MIA-SAL NOV 1.0>0.1[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0]

B6 BDA-BOS NOV 1.0>0.4[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.4[1.0]
B6 BDA-JFK NOV 1.0>0.6[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.5[1.0]

CZ JFK-WUH NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.4[0] JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]

It would appear these cuts are pretty consistent with last year, a little deeper in DEC.
DL AMS-MCO NOV 1.0>0.5[0.6] DEC 1.0>0.6[0.5] JAN 1.0>0.6[0.6] FEB 1.0>0.6[0.6]
DL AMS-PDX JAN 1.0>0.7[0.7] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.7]
DL AMS-SLC FEB 1.0>0.7[0.7]
DL ATL-BRU NOV 1.0>0.5[0.6] DEC 1.0>0.5[0.6] JAN 1.0>0.5[0.6] FEB 1.0>0.6[0.5]
DL ATL-CAE OCT 8>7[7] NOV 8>7[7]
DL ATL-DUS NOV 1.0>0.7[0.8] DEC 1.0>0.6[0.8] JAN 1.0>0.7[0.7] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.7]
DL ATL-FCO NOV 1.0>0.7[0.7] DEC 1.0>0.7[0.7] JAN 1.0>0.6[0.6] FEB 1.0>0.6[0.6]
DL ATL-MUC JAN 1.0>0.7[0.7] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.7]
DL ATL-PAP JAN 0.7>1.1[1.0] FEB 0.7>1.2[1.0]
DL ATL-SJU NOV 1.6>1.1[1.5]
DL ATL-STR NOV 1.0>0.7[0.8] DEC 1.0>0.6[0.8] JAN 1.0>0.7[0.7] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.7]
DL BCN-JFK JAN 1.0>0.7[0.7]
DL BOS-CDG NOV 1.0>0.7[0.7] DEC 1.0>0.7[0.7] JAN 1.0>0.7[0.7] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.7]
DL CDG-CVG NOV 1.0>0.7[0.8] DEC 1.0>0.6[0.9] JAN 1.0>0.7[0.7] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.7]
DL CDG-IND NOV 1.0>0.5[0.6] DEC 1.0>0.5[0.6] JAN 1.0>0.4[0.5] FEB 1.0>0.4[0.4]
DL CDG-LAX NOV 1.0>0.8[0.4] DEC 1.0>0.7[0.4] JAN 1.0>0.7[0.5] FEB 1.0>0.6[0.4]
DL CDG-RDU NOV 1.0>0.7[0.7] DEC 1.0>0.6[0.7] JAN 1.0>0.7[0.7] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.7]
DL CDG-SEA JAN 1.0>0.7[0.7] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.7]
DL CDG-SLC NOV 1.0>0.7[0.8] DEC 1.0>0.7[0.9] JAN 1.0>0.5[0.7] FEB 1.0>0.6[0.6]
DL CHS-MSP JUL 0.9>0.6[0]
DL EDI-JFK JAN 1.0>0.5[0.1] FEB 1.0>0.6[0]
DL FCO-JFK NOV 1.0>0.7[0.7] DEC 1.0>0.7[0.7] JAN 1.0>0.6[0.6] FEB 1.0>0.6[0.6]
DL GIG-JFK JAN 0>0.9[0.7] FEB 0>1.0[0.6]
DL JFK-LIS NOV 1.0>0.7[0.7] DEC 1.0>0.7[0.7] JAN 1.0>0.6[0.5] FEB 1.0>0.6[0.6]
DL MSP-TPA JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3]
DL PIT-RDU DEC 1.0>0.6[0]

EI BOS-DUB JAN 1.2>1.5[1.2] FEB 1.0>1.4[1.0]

G3 BSB-MIA AUG 1.0>0.7[0] SEP 1.0>0.7[0]
G3 FOR-MCO OCT 0.9>0.5[0] NOV 1.0>0.6[0.6] DEC 1.0>0.7[0.8]
G3 FOR-MIA OCT 1.0>0.4[0] NOV 0.8>0.4[0.3] DEC 1.0>0.6[0.5]

G4 ALB-MYR SEP 0>0.3[0]
G4 BNA-CID SEP 0>0.3[0]

In, out, in, out
*IG LAX-MXP JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.4[0] SEP 0>0.6[0] OCT 0>0.5[0]

O6 GRU-JFK JUN 1.0>0.7[1.0]
O6 GRU-MIA JUN 1.0>0.7[1.0]

SY BNA-PVD JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
SY CUN-DFW JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
SY CUN-MSP DEC 0.5>1.0[0.8] JAN 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>1.8[1.7]
SY DFW-LAS JAN 0>0.3[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[1.0]
Surprised they didn't operate this last Winter
*SY DFW-MSP JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
SY EWR-MSP DEC 0.5>0.9[0]
SY HNL-PDX DEC 0.3>0.8[0.6] JAN 0>0.5[0.6] FEB 0>0.4[0.6]
*SY LAS-PVD JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
SY LAS-SAT DEC 0.3>0.5[0]
SY LAX-MSP DEC 0.7>1.8[2] JAN 0>1.0[1.2] FEB 0>0.9[0.8]
SY LIR-MSP JAN 0>0.3[0.5] FEB 0>0.4[0.5]
SY MBJ-MSP FEB 0>1.0[1.1]
SY MSN-RSW DEC 0>0.2[0.3] FEB 0>0.3[0.5]
SY MSP-ORD DEC 0.5>0.8[0]
SY MSP-PDX DEC 0.4>0.9[0.6] JAN 0>0.5[0.4] FEB 0>0.4[0.3]
SY MSP-PHL DEC 0.5>0.8[0]
SY MSP-PSP DEC 0.4>0.9[1.0] JAN 0>0.7[0.9] FEB 0>1.0[1.1]
SY MSP-PVD DEC 0.5>0.8[0]
SY MSP-PVR DEC 0.1>0.5[0.5] FEB 0>0.9[0.8]
SY MSP-SAN DEC 0.3>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.6[0.5]
SY MSP-SAT DEC 0.3>0.5[0]
SY MSP-SEA DEC 0.5>1.5[1.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.2]
SY MSP-SFO NOV 0.7>1.0[1.4] DEC 0.3>1.4[1.6] JAN 0>0.8[0.5] FEB 0>0.6[0]
SY MSP-SJD FEB 0>0.7[0.6]
That'll be rough in Winter
*SY MSP-STL DEC 0.3>0.6[0] JAN 0>0.5[0] FEB 0>0.6[0]
SY MSP-TPA DEC 0.2>0.8[0.8] FEB 0>1.6[1.8]
SY MSP-TUS DEC 0>0.2[0.3] FEB 0>0.4[0.6]
SY MSP-ZIH JAN 0>0.3[0.1] FEB 0>0.3[0.1]
SY MSY-PVD JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
SY PDX-SFO JAN 0>0.6[0.3] FEB 0>0.6[0.3]
SY PSP-SFO JAN 0>0.6[0.3] FEB 0>0.6[0.3]
*SY PUJ-PVD JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
SY RSW-STL FEB 0>0.3[0.5]

Unusual close in JUL changes/cuts
UA AMS-IAD JAN 0.5>0.7[0.5]
UA AUS-DEN JAN 4>3[3]
UA AVL-ORD JUL 4>3[4]
UA AVP-ORD DEC 3>2.0[3] JAN 3>1.9[2] FEB 3>1.8[1.9]
UA BNA-EWR JAN 7>6[5]
UA BNA-SFO JUL 2>1.5[1.9]
UA BOI-DEN JAN 5>4[4]
UA BOS-LAX JUL 3>2.0[3]
UA BOS-SFO JUL 8>7[8]
UA BWI-DEN JUL 3>1.9[2]
UA BZN-ORD JUL 2>1.4[2]
UA CLE-LAX JUL 3>1.8[1.8]
UA CRW-ORD NOV 3>4[1.9] DEC 3>4[1.6] JAN 3>4[0.9] FEB 3>4[0.9]
UA DEN-IAD JAN 7>6[5]
UA DEN-MCI JAN 6>5[4]
UA DEN-MIA DEC 1.8>1.3[1.2]
UA DEN-MKE JAN 3>2[2]
UA DEN-MSY JAN 3>2[1.9]
UA DEN-PDX JAN 5>4[4]
UA DEN-PHL JAN 3>2[2]
UA DEN-PHX JAN 6>5[4]
UA DEN-SEA JAN 5>4[4]
UA DEN-SMF JAN 5>4[4]
UA DFW-SFO JAN 5>4[3]
UA DLH-ORD JUL 4>3[4]
UA DTW-IAD JAN 4>3[3]
UA EWR-GSP DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3]
UA EWR-LAX JAN 11>10[9]
UA EWR-LIM OCT 0.6>0.9[0.6]
UA EWR-SEA JAN 3>2[1.9]
UA EWR-SFO JAN 13>11[10] FEB 14>13[10]
UA EWR-SMF DEC 0.6>0.1[0.4]
UA FLL-IAH JAN 5>4[4]
UA FLL-ORD JUL 1.9>1.0[3]
UA FWA-ORD JUL 3>2[3]
UA IAD-LAX JAN 6>5[5]
UA IAD-MDT JUL 4>3[3]
UA IAD-MHT JUL 3>2[0]
UA IAD-SEA JAN 3>2[1.9]
UA IAH-MSP JUL 5>4[4]
UA IAH-PHX JAN 5>4[4]
UA IAH-PNS FEB 6>5[4]
UA IAH-RSW JAN 2>3[3] FEB 2>3[3]
UA IAH-SEA JUL 6>5[6]
UA IAH-SLC JUL 5>4[5]
UA LAS-LAX JUL 5>4[5]
UA LAX-MFR JAN 3>2[2]
UA MBS-ORD JUL 3>2[3]
UA MCO-ORD JUL 6>5[6]
UA MSP-SFO JUL 3>1.6[2]
UA MSY-ORD JUL 3>2[3]
UA ORD-PDX JAN 4>3[2]
UA ORD-SAN JUL 5>4[5] JAN 5>4[4]
UA ORD-SMF JAN 3>2[2.0]
UA ORD-SPI JUL 3>2[3]
UA ORD-YYC JAN 3>2[2]
UA PIT-SFO DEC 1.1>1.6[1.4]

At least they are still scheduling something?
VC AMA-AUS JUN 0.6>0.3[0] JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0.3] OCT 0.5>0[0.9] NOV 0.6>0[0.9] DEC 0.6>0[0.8] JAN 0.6>0[0.4] FEB 0.6>0[0.4]
VC AUS-BHM JUN 0.6>0.3[0] JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0]
VC AUS-BKG JUL 0.4>0[0.5] AUG 0.5>0[0.5]
VC AUS-BTR JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.4>0.1[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.4]
VC AUS-LIT JUN 0.6>0.3[0.8] JUL 0.5>0[0.9] AUG 0.6>0[0.9] SEP 0.6>0[0.7] OCT 0.5>0[0.7] NOV 0.6>0[0.9] DEC 0.6>0[0.8] JAN 0.6>0[0.5] FEB 0.6>0[0.3]
VC AUS-MEM JUL 0.6>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.6>0[0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.6>0.0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0]
VC AUS-TUL JUN 0.6>0.3[0.8] JUL 0.5>0[0.9] AUG 0.6>0[0.7] SEP 0.6>0[0.7] OCT 0.5>0[0.8] NOV 0.6>0[0.9] DEC 0.6>0[0.8] JAN 0.6>0[0.5] FEB 0.6>0[0]
VC BDL-PIT JUL 0.2>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.6>0[0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.6>0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0]
VC BFM-SFB JUN 0.6>0.3[0] JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0] OCT 0.3>0[0] NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0] JAN 0.3>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0]
VC BHM-PIT JUN 0.6>0.3[0] JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0]
VC BHM-RDU JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.5>0[0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.6>0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0]
VC BTR-SFB JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0]
VC CAE-SFB JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0]
VC JAN-SFB JUL 0.5>0.3[0.6] AUG 0.6>0.3[0.6] SEP 0.6>0.3[0.6] OCT 0.5>0.3[0.5]
VC MEM-PIT JUL 0.6>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.6>0[0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.6>0.0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0]
VC MGM-SFB JUL 0.3>0[0.6] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.6]

XE BUR-CCR JUN 0>1.5[0.8]
XE BUR-LAS JUN 0>6[0.9]
XE BUR-OAK JUN 0>5[1.1]
XE LAS-OAK JUN 0>3[0]
XE LAS-SNA JUN 0>3[0]
XE OAK-SNA JUN 0>1.8[0]

Ishrion · Sun May 26, 2019 12:35 pm

Is Volaris still on CLT-GDL?

EvanWSFO · Sun May 26, 2019 12:44 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Is Volaris still on CLT-GDL?

They appear to be, at least through June.

Bigant0408 · Sun May 26, 2019 12:57 pm

I’m wondering with all this expansion/extension from SY if they’re receiving more aircrafts this year. Regardless glad to see them doing well overall

Chuska · Sun May 26, 2019 12:58 pm

The two markets on AN that are showing cut (ABQ-SVC and PHX-SVC) are probably not happening as these are EAS markets. AN is contracted to service these routes through 2020.

LAXdude1023 · Sun May 26, 2019 1:02 pm

Actually not surprised about MIA-SAL. The Salvadoran population in South Florida is actually quite small.

Runway28L · Sun May 26, 2019 1:14 pm

The UA changes for July likely have to do with their MAX grounding window being extended from July 1st to the middle of August, hence the close-in adjustments.

RJNUT · Sun May 26, 2019 1:15 pm

Runway28L wrote:
The UA changes for July likely have to do with their MAX grounding window being extended from July 1st to the middle of August, hence the close-in adjustments.

it also seems to reflect a staffing issue at a UA Express carrier.

enilria · Sun May 26, 2019 1:19 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Is Volaris still on CLT-GDL?

They appear to be, at least through June.

Yes. Seems like a big potential win for them.

RJNUT wrote:
Runway28L wrote:
The UA changes for July likely have to do with their MAX grounding window being extended from July 1st to the middle of August, hence the close-in adjustments.

it also seems to reflect a staffing issue at a UA Express carrier.

That makes more sense. I can’t believe they are doing MAX cancels 30 days out at this point. The crew bid is probably closed.

Bigant0408 wrote:
I’m wondering with all this expansion/extension from SY if they’re receiving more aircrafts this year. Regardless glad to see them doing well overall

I believe they are growing quite a bit. Wikipedia?

rajincajun01 · Sun May 26, 2019 1:26 pm

Nice growth for AC in TPA. Surprised it’s taken this long.

CMHtraveler · Sun May 26, 2019 1:56 pm

enilria wrote:
*AM DTW-GDL JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0]
*AM DTW-SLP JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0]

What’s the deal with these? They weren’t scheduled to begin until July 15 and 16 respectively. Are they now going to be flown by DL or cut completely?

As someone who goes to SLP once or twice a year and usually has to connect through DFW or IAH, a third option would/would’ve been nice.

OB1504 · Sun May 26, 2019 2:06 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Actually not surprised about MIA-SAL. The Salvadoran population in South Florida is actually quite small.

Isn’t SAL Avianca’s Central American hub? With the loss of this route from MIA, only BOG will offer meaningful amounts of connecting opportunities to Central America on Avianca.

pmanni1 · Sun May 26, 2019 2:20 pm

Bigant0408 wrote:
I’m wondering with all this expansion/extension from SY if they’re receiving more aircrafts this year. Regardless glad to see them doing well overall

Adding 6 aircraft and removing 3 this year. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -c-454367/

Bigant0408 · Sun May 26, 2019 2:25 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Bigant0408 wrote:
I’m wondering with all this expansion/extension from SY if they’re receiving more aircrafts this year. Regardless glad to see them doing well overall

Adding 6 aircraft and removing 3 this year. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -c-454367/

Thank you for this

LAXdude1023 · Sun May 26, 2019 2:28 pm

OB1504 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
Actually not surprised about MIA-SAL. The Salvadoran population in South Florida is actually quite small.

Isn’t SAL Avianca’s Central American hub? With the loss of this route from MIA, only BOG will offer meaningful amounts of connecting opportunities to Central America on Avianca.

But from a demographic perspective, South Florida's Hispanic population is predominately South American and Caribbean. There are a lot of Central Americans there but from Honduras and Nicaragua mainly. AV will still fly to SAP, TGU, and MGA as well as GUA from MIA. That more than covers it IMO.

avi8 · Sun May 26, 2019 2:33 pm

The SAL-MÍA cut is shocking. It really is. I assume the rest of Central American-MIA flights will be cut as well, given that the hub flight was cut. AV’s crisis always amazes me. Hope they make it

PSU.DTW.SCE · Sun May 26, 2019 2:35 pm

CMHtraveler wrote:
enilria wrote:
*AM DTW-GDL JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0]
*AM DTW-SLP JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0]

What’s the deal with these? They weren’t scheduled to begin until July 15 and 16 respectively. Are they now going to be flown by DL or cut completely?

As someone who goes to SLP once or twice a year and usually has to connect through DFW or IAH, a third option would/would’ve been nice.

The start date for these flights keeps getting rolled back because of the MAX grounding. AM is using the E90s that were to operate these new flights to cover other routes in the interim.

LAXdude1023 · Sun May 26, 2019 2:35 pm

avi8 wrote:
The SAL-MÍA cut is shocking. It really is. I assume the rest of Central American-MIA flights will be cut as well, given that the hub flight was cut. AV’s crisis always amazes me. Hope they make it

I dont see how. They fly to the other Central American cities because thats where the demand from MIA is. There isnt much demand from MIA to SAL.

It makes perfect sense to me.

MAH4546 · Sun May 26, 2019 2:42 pm

avi8 wrote:
The SAL-MÍA cut is shocking. It really is. I assume the rest of Central American-MIA flights will be cut as well, given that the hub flight was cut. AV’s crisis always amazes me. Hope they make it

I agree it’s shocking but SAL is the smallest local market from Miami, hence it is cut. Not a small market, but still smaller than the rest. It’s the main Central America “hub” but AV serves the main connection markets nonstop from Miami. The sky isn’t falling. Miami’s Central American community is primarily from Honduras and Nicaragua.

LAXdude1023 · Sun May 26, 2019 2:44 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
avi8 wrote:
The SAL-MÍA cut is shocking. It really is. I assume the rest of Central American-MIA flights will be cut as well, given that the hub flight was cut. AV’s crisis always amazes me. Hope they make it

I agree it’s shocking but SAL is the smallest local market from Miami, hence it is cut. It’s the main Central America “hub” but AV serves the main connection markets nonstop from Miami. The sky isn’t falling.

Yes. If AV didnt fly to SAP, TGU, and MGA, it would have been shocking to me. But as is, it makes perfect sense.

Not to mention they fly to LIM and multiple cities in Colombia.

CMHtraveler · Sun May 26, 2019 3:00 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
CMHtraveler wrote:
enilria wrote:
*AM DTW-GDL JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0]
*AM DTW-SLP JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0]

What’s the deal with these? They weren’t scheduled to begin until July 15 and 16 respectively. Are they now going to be flown by DL or cut completely?

As someone who goes to SLP once or twice a year and usually has to connect through DFW or IAH, a third option would/would’ve been nice.

The start date for these flights keeps getting rolled back because of the MAX grounding. AM is using the E90s that were to operate these new flights to cover other routes in the interim.

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks!

TVNWZ · Sun May 26, 2019 3:07 pm

Nice to see AC expanding TPA service a little.

joeblow10 · Sun May 26, 2019 3:21 pm

Bigant0408 wrote:
I’m wondering with all this expansion/extension from SY if they’re receiving more aircrafts this year. Regardless glad to see them doing well overall

Looking at their website though - there’s lots of routes they flew this winter or are currently flying that don’t appear to be coming back. Because they never loaded it though - doesn’t show up in his report. You’d only see it in a YOY compare.

Either this is actually a capacity reduction, or they’ll add a lot more winter flying in the next few months? Hard to tell...

sunking737 · Sun May 26, 2019 3:22 pm

SY as of today, May 26th, has a fleet of 30 737's. 3 -700 are leaving this fall. 3 more -800 are coming this fall/winter. The million dollar question is how many they will lease from Transavia for winter 2019.20. They could end up with 35 737's this up coming winter.

dcajet · Sun May 26, 2019 3:23 pm

O6 GRU-JFK JUN 1.0>0.7[1.0]
O6 GRU-MIA JUN 1.0>0.7[1.0]

Something's not quite right in there. Not only did O6 cancelled all international flying last month, as of Friday it is no longer operating. Brazil's ANAC suspended its AOC until they can prove they are operating safely.

gatibosgru · Sun May 26, 2019 3:37 pm

Glad to see JFK-GIG return. I know it was announced as a seasonal cut but I was afraid it wouldn't come back.

Chuska · Sun May 26, 2019 3:57 pm

United is bringing mainline jets back to COS with two daily to DEN effective June 6, an A319 and a 739.

FlyHossD · Sun May 26, 2019 3:58 pm

enilria wrote:
\
RJNUT wrote:
Runway28L wrote:
The UA changes for July likely have to do with their MAX grounding window being extended from July 1st to the middle of August, hence the close-in adjustments.

it also seems to reflect a staffing issue at a UA Express carrier.

That makes more sense. I can’t believe they are doing MAX cancels 30 days out at this point. The crew bid is probably closed.

If I recall correctly, the monthly bidding for the pilot group ends on the 12 of the prior month with schedules coming out starting the 15th. So the UA pilot group won't have July schedules until June 15th at the earliest for captains and a few days later for first officers.

Scarebus34 · Sun May 26, 2019 4:02 pm

enilria wrote:
EvanWSFO wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Is Volaris still on CLT-GDL?

They appear to be, at least through June.

Yes. Seems like a big potential win for them.
RJNUT wrote:
Runway28L wrote:
The UA changes for July likely have to do with their MAX grounding window being extended from July 1st to the middle of August, hence the close-in adjustments.

it also seems to reflect a staffing issue at a UA Express carrier.

That makes more sense. I can’t believe they are doing MAX cancels 30 days out at this point. The crew bid is probably closed.
Bigant0408 wrote:
I’m wondering with all this expansion/extension from SY if they’re receiving more aircrafts this year. Regardless glad to see them doing well overall

I believe they are growing quite a bit. Wikipedia?

You don’t have to believe it, but they are. They just extended the Max cuts to August this week.

kyrone · Sun May 26, 2019 4:11 pm

Thank you for your hard work and pardon my poor reading skills, is Sun Country staying all year in ORD? I might recall incorrectly, but I thought they were summer seasonal.....

CLT704 · Sun May 26, 2019 4:47 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Is Volaris still on CLT-GDL?

They appear to be, at least through June.

Volaris has bookable CLT-GDL flights through the 1Q of 2020.

Good for them.

Antarius · Sun May 26, 2019 5:13 pm

CLT704 wrote:
EvanWSFO wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Is Volaris still on CLT-GDL?

They appear to be, at least through June.

Volaris has bookable CLT-GDL flights through the 1Q of 2020.

Good for them.

The AA flight was J7 on an a319 almost every single time I looked at it. Last minute round trips were 180 bucks.

Not surprising to see them cancel it. How is Volaris doing?

many321 · Sun May 26, 2019 5:30 pm

avi8 wrote:
The SAL-MÍA cut is shocking. It really is. I assume the rest of Central American-MIA flights will be cut as well, given that the hub flight was cut. AV’s crisis always amazes me. Hope they make it

In total agreement. Kreite has stepped in. Let's see if he with the person the board pick as president are able to lift AV from the situation they're in.

AirFiero · Sun May 26, 2019 5:57 pm

Something that wouldn’t show up in the OAG report but is worth noting is that AA didn’t resume the SJC-CLT route this month for the extended summer season. It was expanding YOY from 2 months to 6. This year, nothing. Although they flew it with an Airbus, I’m assuming it’s MAX8 related (short on planes)?

LAXdude1023 · Sun May 26, 2019 5:59 pm

many321 wrote:
avi8 wrote:
The SAL-MÍA cut is shocking. It really is. I assume the rest of Central American-MIA flights will be cut as well, given that the hub flight was cut. AV’s crisis always amazes me. Hope they make it

In total agreement. Kreite has stepped in. Let's see if he with the person the board pick as president are able to lift AV from the situation they're in.

What’s wrong with cutting unprofitable routes? They’ve upgraded elsewhere

avi8 · Sun May 26, 2019 6:28 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
many321 wrote:
avi8 wrote:
The SAL-MÍA cut is shocking. It really is. I assume the rest of Central American-MIA flights will be cut as well, given that the hub flight was cut. AV’s crisis always amazes me. Hope they make it

In total agreement. Kreite has stepped in. Let's see if he with the person the board pick as president are able to lift AV from the situation they're in.

What’s wrong with cutting unprofitable routes? They’ve upgraded elsewhere

Nothing wrong with it. Business is business. I’m just surprised this route was cut. We’ll see how things turn out with Avianca.

nkops · Sun May 26, 2019 6:46 pm

[

At least they are still scheduling something?
VC AMA-AUS JUN 0.6>0.3[0] JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0.3] OCT 0.5>0[0.9] NOV 0.6>0[0.9] DEC 0.6>0[0.8] JAN 0.6>0[0.4] FEB 0.6>0[0.4]
VC AUS-BHM JUN 0.6>0.3[0] JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0]
VC AUS-BKG JUL 0.4>0[0.5] AUG 0.5>0[0.5]
VC AUS-BTR JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.4>0.1[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.4]
VC AUS-LIT JUN 0.6>0.3[0.8] JUL 0.5>0[0.9] AUG 0.6>0[0.9] SEP 0.6>0[0.7] OCT 0.5>0[0.7] NOV 0.6>0[0.9] DEC 0.6>0[0.8] JAN 0.6>0[0.5] FEB 0.6>0[0.3]
VC AUS-MEM JUL 0.6>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.6>0[0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.6>0.0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0]
VC AUS-TUL JUN 0.6>0.3[0.8] JUL 0.5>0[0.9] AUG 0.6>0[0.7] SEP 0.6>0[0.7] OCT 0.5>0[0.8] NOV 0.6>0[0.9] DEC 0.6>0[0.8] JAN 0.6>0[0.5] FEB 0.6>0[0]
VC BDL-PIT JUL 0.2>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.6>0[0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.6>0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0]
VC BFM-SFB JUN 0.6>0.3[0] JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0] OCT 0.3>0[0] NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0] JAN 0.3>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0]
VC BHM-PIT JUN 0.6>0.3[0] JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0]
VC BHM-RDU JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.5>0[0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.6>0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0]
VC BTR-SFB JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0]
VC CAE-SFB JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0]
VC JAN-SFB JUL 0.5>0.3[0.6] AUG 0.6>0.3[0.6] SEP 0.6>0.3[0.6] OCT 0.5>0.3[0.5]
VC MEM-PIT JUL 0.6>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.6>0[0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.6>0.0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0]
VC MGM-SFB JUL 0.3>0[0.6] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.6]

not even sure why they publish a schedule, they never fly any of it

KLMatSJC · Sun May 26, 2019 6:48 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Something that wouldn’t show up in the OAG report but is worth noting is that AA didn’t resume the SJC-CLT route this month for the extended summer season. It was expanding YOY from 2 months to 6. This year, nothing. Although they flew it with an Airbus, I’m assuming it’s MAX8 related (short on planes)?

It was announced quite a few months ago (November, I believe) that the flight wouldn't return, so it wasn't MAX related. Definitely weird since it went from 2 months of an A319 to 6 months of an A321 in just 2 years.

FlyGuy27 · Sun May 26, 2019 7:10 pm

Interesting UA cuts on the premium trans cons (BOS/EWR - SFO/LAX) - understood its most likely MAX related but that can’t be an insignificant loss of (potential) J revenue.

LAXdude1023 · Sun May 26, 2019 7:18 pm

Going back to AV and why MIA may have been cut, AV's route planning is predictable to me. Why MIA was cut makes perfect sense to me as well. AV seems to base things off of demographics. Take a look at the below:

AV's destinations from SAL:
LAX - 3x daily
IAD - 3x daily
NYC - 1x daily JFK and 1x daily EWR
IAH - daily (codeshares on two additional flights operated by UA) recently upgraded to 319/320
SFO - 2x daily
DFW - daily - recently upgraded to 320
MCO - 3x weekly

The largest Salvadoran populations in the US:
Los Angeles: 505,723
Washington DC: 359,847
New York City: 269,250
Houston: 214,781
San Francisco/San Jose: 149,951
Dallas/Fort Worth: 104,093

For perspective, Miami/Fort Lauderdale has 50,484.

Looking at their BOG hub, its a similar trend.

AV destinations from BOG:
NYC - 3x daily from JFK and a codeshare operated by UA daily to EWR
MIA - 3x daily and daily to FLL
MCO - Daily
IAD - Daily
LAX - Daily
IAH - 2x daily codeshare operated by UA.

Now the largest Colombian populations in the US:
New York City - 320,375
Miami/Fort Lauderdale - 251,772
Orlando - 57,186
Boston - 45,505
Houston - 41,307
Los Angeles- 40,084
Tampa - 37,020
Washington DC - 34,143

The only exception to the above is Boston and perhaps they felt the Northeast was well served via NYC and IAD from. TPA is to a lesser degree as well, but MCO is just down the road. In addition, AV serves MDE and CLO from NYC and MIA as well as CTG and BAQ from MIA. This underscores the demographical tie.

You also have to realize something about SAL: there is very little business traffic from the US. Its almost all ethnic. That is going to be a huge reason why the markets served mirror the largest ethnic ties.

AirFiero · Sun May 26, 2019 7:37 pm

KLMatSJC wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Something that wouldn’t show up in the OAG report but is worth noting is that AA didn’t resume the SJC-CLT route this month for the extended summer season. It was expanding YOY from 2 months to 6. This year, nothing. Although they flew it with an Airbus, I’m assuming it’s MAX8 related (short on planes)?

It was announced quite a few months ago (November, I believe) that the flight wouldn't return, so it wasn't MAX related. Definitely weird since it went from 2 months of an A319 to 6 months of an A321 in just 2 years.

Damn. I wonder why. I was likely to use that flight this summer.

rainaviation2 · Sun May 26, 2019 8:03 pm

Bigant0408 wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
Bigant0408 wrote:
I’m wondering with all this expansion/extension from SY if they’re receiving more aircrafts this year. Regardless glad to see them doing well overall

Adding 6 aircraft and removing 3 this year. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -c-454367/

Thank you for this

I recently flew on one of the -800s they received from FlyDubai and the aircraft was quite impressive! It was equipped with the Boeing Sky Interior with the new SY seats, it did not feel like I was flying on a LCC or ULCC aside from the no first class.

They seem to be doing well but I am sad to see some routes which did not work out such as MSP-SKB (wonder if STT or SXM is coming back) or BNA-RSW/TPA. They do have some flexibility now this winter with some new routes, I wonder if SY will try some new markets or add at PDX/PVD/DFW/BNA even more.

grbauc · Sun May 26, 2019 8:19 pm

KLMatSJC wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Something that wouldn’t show up in the OAG report but is worth noting is that AA didn’t resume the SJC-CLT route this month for the extended summer season. It was expanding YOY from 2 months to 6. This year, nothing. Although they flew it with an Airbus, I’m assuming it’s MAX8 related (short on planes)?

It was announced quite a few months ago (November, I believe) that the flight wouldn't return, so it wasn't MAX related. Definitely weird since it went from 2 months of an A319 to 6 months of an A321 in just 2 years.

Is it possible there routing the connecting traffic Through another hub? PHX DFW PHL?

Gulfstream500 · Sun May 26, 2019 9:12 pm

Winners for this week:

EYW: 5 daily flights to CLT!!! (It’s about time). When is the mainline 737-700/A319 coming???

MSP: never seen this much growth from SY in one thread.

JAN and SFB: not for gaining anything, but for being the only airports that could keep Via Air’s services.

Losers for this week:

CLE: they just keep on losing with UA. This week, they lost half of their frequencies to LAX. (It’s about time that AA or DL start this one)

AUS: dehubbed by Via

CDG: DL basically took every 1x daily and made it into a 0.7x daily.

klm617 · Sun May 26, 2019 9:14 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Winners for this week:

EYW: 5 daily flights to CLT!!! (It’s about time). When is the mainline 737-700/A319 coming???

MSP: never seen this much growth from SY in one thread.

JAN and SFB: not for gaining anything, but for being the only airports that could keep Via Air’s services.

Losers for this week:

CLE: they just keep on losing with UA. This week, they lost half of their frequencies to LAX.

AUS: dehubbed by Via

DTW All the growth that was suppose to happen internationally at Detroit this summer has been evaporated. First WOW and now this.

RWA380 · Sun May 26, 2019 9:16 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Bigant0408 wrote:
I’m wondering with all this expansion/extension from SY if they’re receiving more aircrafts this year. Regardless glad to see them doing well overall

Looking at their website though - there’s lots of routes they flew this winter or are currently flying that don’t appear to be coming back. Because they never loaded it though - doesn’t show up in his report. You’d only see it in a YOY compare.

Either this is actually a capacity reduction, or they’ll add a lot more winter flying in the next few months? Hard to tell...

IIRC, last year it was the summer before SY started selling new destinations for the winter. I see none of the other routes out of PDX besides MSP & HNL. But I bet PSP, PHX, LAS, SFO & SAN will remain. I honestly hope with crew bases here or coming soon, we will see an increase of destinations.

Ishrion · Sun May 26, 2019 9:17 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Winners for this week:

EYW: 5 daily flights to CLT!!! (It’s about time). When is the mainline 737-700/A319 coming???

MSP: never seen this much growth from SY in one thread.

JAN and SFB: not for gaining anything, but for being the only airports that could keep Via Air’s services.

Losers for this week:

CLE: they just keep on losing with UA. This week, they lost half of their frequencies to LAX.

AUS: dehubbed by Via

AA at EYW has grown a ton in the past year or so with the addition of PHL, DFW, and ORD.

How many flights did CLT-EYW have at this time last year?

AA doesn't operate the 737-700... would the 737-800 and A319 be able to fly on EYW's 4,801 ft runway?

EvanWSFO · Sun May 26, 2019 9:19 pm

klm617 wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Winners for this week:

EYW: 5 daily flights to CLT!!! (It’s about time). When is the mainline 737-700/A319 coming???

MSP: never seen this much growth from SY in one thread.

JAN and SFB: not for gaining anything, but for being the only airports that could keep Via Air’s services.

Losers for this week:

CLE: they just keep on losing with UA. This week, they lost half of their frequencies to LAX.

AUS: dehubbed by Via

DTW All the growth that was suppose to happen internationally at Detroit this summer has been evaporated. First WOW and now this.

"and now this" what? The post you quoted has no mention of DTW.

fun2fly · Sun May 26, 2019 9:22 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:

Losers for this week:

CLE: they just keep on losing with UA. This week, they lost half of their frequencies to LAX. (It’s about time that AA or DL start this one).

UA just took the July 737MAX cancellations off the schedule and 1x LAX isn't too bad for CLE. See the CLE thread for more details on UA at CLE, it's not all bad.

Kronesian · Sun May 26, 2019 9:29 pm

Well overdue for MLB. With Elite ending scheduled flights here, it will be nice to see more AA here to take the place.

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