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Andy33
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 7:04 am

ORDfan101 wrote:
ER757 wrote:
ORDfan101 wrote:
I think that in order to capture many orders, the nma should be launched in Paris

Very doubtful this will happen - IMO they are still trying to close the business case - will they be able to make a sufficient ROI? Don't count on a launch announcement - probably just an update on where they stand at this point.


I believe it is necessary for them to launch because the retirement frame for many 757/767s is fast approaching meaning that they must act fast


Thing is, outside the USA, most airlines (though admittedly not all) have already replaced their passenger 757/767s or already have planes on order to do that. It doesn't mean that airlines won't order a 797 because it potentially does what they need at an operating cost they can afford, but they won't be ordering it purely as a replacement for the planes they never had to begin with or no longer have.

As an example, in Europe the only significant numbers of 757s remaining with scheduled/semi-charter carriers are with Condor (15), Icelandair (28), Jet2 (11) and TUI Group (11). TUI Group have already decided that the MAX8 is an adequate replacement and have lots on order. Once the grounding is lifted, 757s start leaving in quantity this winter. Condor, along with the rest of the Thomas Cook Group airlines, is up for sale, so are unlikely to order anything at all this year. Now 767s do still exist with first-tier airlines in Europe, but only six,, with OS. At the moment owner Lufthansa Group says that earnings at Austrian are too low to finance fleet renewal.
After that we're back to TUI Group (6) (who seem to prefer 788s in this size category), Condor(16) and Icelandair (4) again.
Why do I mention Europe specifically? Well, it is customary for manufacturers sales teams to try for orders from the region an airshow is held in above all, as this secures maximum publicity for both them and their customers.
 
FlyingSlowly
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 7:55 am

TC957 wrote:
Maybe news about launching the A220-500 ?


The problem right now is that everyone wants the Delta price on the A220s...

Short of the A220-500, what reason do other large airlines have to pay more than Delta? Just play the waiting game. Someone will be desperate to sell some A220s at a bargain again, eventually.

Besides, the A220-500 is the plane that many airlines really need to replace their A319s and B737-700s...
 
Canuck600
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:10 am

Any chance that Viking Air might get some Twin Otter sales in Paris? AFAIK the purchase of the Q Series from Bombardier hasn't closed yet? So any Q sales would go to Bombardier.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:12 am

I would like to see a lot of positive activity with the E2 and A220. These aircraft need more love.

It will be relatively boring to hear another A32Xneo or 737 Max order (although the latter will be surprising for other reasons...)

On the WB side I'd like to see more orders for the A35K and 779.

The A35K is in service and seems to be really exceeding expectations.

The 779 is gaining traction in the testing and production departments so more airlines may be ready to commit.

I'm not really expecting anything big. It will be a modest air show, IMO.

Again, I would love to see A220 and E2 orders. Lots of them!
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Jomar777
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:19 am

lightsaber wrote:
Sales season is fully underway. Airline buyers are already at Paris and the Leasing companies are there in full force.

For myself, the most exciting order is Spirit for either the E2 or A220. If the A220 wins, future sales will be easier. We have a separate thread on a MTOW increase.

The E2 must sell or it is in trouble. The E2-175 has no viable orders. The combined E2-190/195 sales are insufficient. Aircastle has struggled to sell their E2s and until the customer base multiplies, no other leasor will buy and there goes half of sales

Pratt is meeting contract now, so they maintain an exclusive on the A220, E2, and MRJ.

I'm curious as to business jet launched. Gulfstream had a long reign with the G650. They must spoil the Global 7500 by launching a new larger top aircraft. The question is when and what engine (Pearl growth, Passport, or a geared PW800).

Cessna is due to make noise post Hemisphere.

Will Dassault come out with a stretch of the 6X. I would be shocked if not already in work. Again, which engine (see above, but also a possibility of a less ambitious stretch with the PW816 or current Pearl, but TPAC range).

Boeing and Airbus will sell. I'm not expecting an exciting year. The reality is what would be a small sale for the MAX or NEO is huge for the A220 or E2.


keesje wrote:
No to forget: Mitsubishi’s next MRJ model "the project"

Mitsubishi Aircraft is planning to reveal specific details on the significant changes it will be making to the smaller of its two MRJ regional jets under development during the Paris Air Show next month.

Chief development officer Alex Bellamy stated on 10 May, that the aircraft formally known as the MRJ70 is now dubbed “the concept” and will seat 76 passengers in three-class configurations.


Only re-arranged seatmaps to make 76 seat look good & derated MTOW paperwork would be a deception IMO, lipstick..

Image
https://www.hmgaerospace.com/news/lara/mitsubishi-mrj/

I fully expect orders for this new MRJ.

Lightsaber


Regardless of the Spirit order or not, the main headline for the E2, or Embraer as a whole, will be the announcement of their JV. LIkewise for the A220, which as a CS300/CS100 frame did not sell in many numbers, so it will be for the E2 or the E program as a whole. It is becoming a Boeing now so the marketing and strategy will adapt. Actually, it will be slightly better given that they have one thing that Airbus has not yet solved with the A220 - production output and slots.

I feel it is going to be a quiet market save from maybe an AF/KL order here and there.

Spirit's decision on the A220/E2 might come into place and will mostly depend on when they want/ex[ect to receive their new aircraft.

I do not see a LH order coming unless if it is for the group and, form the US3, not much will come (no sources - but that's exactly the point - no sources for new orders...).

Boeing might (just might) make some NMA announcement but I feel that the main one might be the announcement that they are ready with the MAX's upgrades to the point that the grounding will end.

Airbus might also come up witht he A321XLR if, and only if, they can disclose orders for it.

Whatever Emirates do (alreadyposted about it) will happen on Dubai Airshow and I do not see anything from Qatar Airways also.

It would be interesting to see how COMAC does given the present trade war with the US.
 
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MrBren
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:21 am

I have recently flown from Paris to Bangalore on an AF 777. This was so noisy. I hope AF will order more A350s to get rid of these 777.
 
majano
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:59 am

Momo1435 wrote:
I think there will be an announcement for an LOI for an unidentified customer. The type of aircraft that they will order will be decided on in a later stage. This deal will be for 5 to 50 planes and when firmed up will be delivered between 2027 and 2035.

:D If I were to put money on any of the predictions / hopes / expectations on this thread, this would be it.
 
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LaunchDetected
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 9:04 am

MrBren wrote:
I have recently flown from Paris to Bangalore on an AF 777. This was so noisy. I hope AF will order more A350s to get rid of these 777.


It would be a big loss for the 777X.
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fcogafa
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 10:09 am

The A321XLR will be launched with great fanfare although with 'orders' that mostly consist of conversions from the A321LR

Otherwise, as per last Farnborough, many orders will be announced that are not actually orders or are ones that have already been announced
 
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keesje
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 11:08 am

Jomar777 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Sales season is fully underway. Airline buyers are already at Paris and the Leasing companies are there in full force.

For myself, the most exciting order is Spirit for either the E2 or A220. If the A220 wins, future sales will be easier. We have a separate thread on a MTOW increase.

The E2 must sell or it is in trouble. The E2-175 has no viable orders. The combined E2-190/195 sales are insufficient. Aircastle has struggled to sell their E2s and until the customer base multiplies, no other leasor will buy and there goes half of sales

Pratt is meeting contract now, so they maintain an exclusive on the A220, E2, and MRJ.

I'm curious as to business jet launched. Gulfstream had a long reign with the G650. They must spoil the Global 7500 by launching a new larger top aircraft. The question is when and what engine (Pearl growth, Passport, or a geared PW800).

Cessna is due to make noise post Hemisphere.

Will Dassault come out with a stretch of the 6X. I would be shocked if not already in work. Again, which engine (see above, but also a possibility of a less ambitious stretch with the PW816 or current Pearl, but TPAC range).

Boeing and Airbus will sell. I'm not expecting an exciting year. The reality is what would be a small sale for the MAX or NEO is huge for the A220 or E2.


keesje wrote:
No to forget: Mitsubishi’s next MRJ model "the project"



Only re-arranged seatmaps to make 76 seat look good & derated MTOW paperwork would be a deception IMO, lipstick..

Image
https://www.hmgaerospace.com/news/lara/mitsubishi-mrj/

I fully expect orders for this new MRJ.

Lightsaber


Regardless of the Spirit order or not, the main headline for the E2, or Embraer as a whole, will be the announcement of their JV. LIkewise for the A220, which as a CS300/CS100 frame did not sell in many numbers, so it will be for the E2 or the E program as a whole. It is becoming a Boeing now so the marketing and strategy will adapt. Actually, it will be slightly better given that they have one thing that Airbus has not yet solved with the A220 - production output and slots.

I feel it is going to be a quiet market save from maybe an AF/KL order here and there.

Spirit's decision on the A220/E2 might come into place and will mostly depend on when they want/ex[ect to receive their new aircraft.

I do not see a LH order coming unless if it is for the group and, form the US3, not much will come (no sources - but that's exactly the point - no sources for new orders...).

Boeing might (just might) make some NMA announcement but I feel that the main one might be the announcement that they are ready with the MAX's upgrades to the point that the grounding will end.

Airbus might also come up witht he A321XLR if, and only if, they can disclose orders for it.

Whatever Emirates do (alreadyposted about it) will happen on Dubai Airshow and I do not see anything from Qatar Airways also.

It would be interesting to see how COMAC does given the present trade war with the US.


Now the MRJ is maturing, MITAC is looking for strategic options to recoup their investments / get traction.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/05/29/mitsubish-renaming-revamping-mrj-considers-us-production-line-nikkei-asia-news/
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ORDfan101
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 12:01 pm

Andy33 wrote:
ORDfan101 wrote:
ER757 wrote:
Very doubtful this will happen - IMO they are still trying to close the business case - will they be able to make a sufficient ROI? Don't count on a launch announcement - probably just an update on where they stand at this point.


I believe it is necessary for them to launch because the retirement frame for many 757/767s is fast approaching meaning that they must act fast


Thing is, outside the USA, most airlines (though admittedly not all) have already replaced their passenger 757/767s or already have planes on order to do that. It doesn't mean that airlines won't order a 797 because it potentially does what they need at an operating cost they can afford, but they won't be ordering it purely as a replacement for the planes they never had to begin with or no longer have.

As an example, in Europe the only significant numbers of 757s remaining with scheduled/semi-charter carriers are with Condor (15), Icelandair (28), Jet2 (11) and TUI Group (11). TUI Group have already decided that the MAX8 is an adequate replacement and have lots on order. Once the grounding is lifted, 757s start leaving in quantity this winter. Condor, along with the rest of the Thomas Cook Group airlines, is up for sale, so are unlikely to order anything at all this year. Now 767s do still exist with first-tier airlines in Europe, but only six,, with OS. At the moment owner Lufthansa Group says that earnings at Austrian are too low to finance fleet renewal.
After that we're back to TUI Group (6) (who seem to prefer 788s in this size category), Condor(16) and Icelandair (4) again.
Why do I mention Europe specifically? Well, it is customary for manufacturers sales teams to try for orders from the region an airshow is held in above all, as this secures maximum publicity for both them and their customers.

True but many of them recognize that they need this aircraft and time is running out before they order a321s (and some already have!)
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 1:16 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
I think there will be an announcement for an LOI for an unidentified customer. The type of aircraft that they will order will be decided on in a later stage. This deal will be for 5 to 50 planes and when firmed up will be delivered between 2027 and 2035.


I heard whispers there would even be a second order like that.... :spit:

MoKa777 wrote:
It will be relatively boring to hear another A32Xneo or 737 Max order (although the latter will be surprising for other reasons...)



well, this time a 737MAX order announcement would not be boring! Unless it's another UFO of course :bored:

EK2 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
EChid wrote:
Emirates never had options, they had an MOU which was non-binding. They have no reason to shift orders around and order something else like they did with Airbus. I don't expect any order action for EK this show.

EK has made noise about still ordering the 787-10. However, such orders will be held for the Dubai airshow.

Thinking about business jets more, most of what I posted above will wait for that Airshow. :(. At least business jet related.

Lightsaber

Interestingly Sam Chui recently did an article where he commented that Emirates had removed the 787 from its backlog and by inference the order was dead. Emirates then contacted him and stated “In November 2017, Emirates announced a memorandum of understanding for the purchase of 40 Boeing 787s which at this time has not been converted into a firm contract. However, we can confirm that discussions on the 787 are on-going.”
It seems quite possible that they are still looking at taking , at least some, of the 787 - 10's.

Karl

Hmm, including the A330neo/A350 EK almost has as many pax planes on order as they are operating now... So if the 787 (-10 and or -9) is going to be ordered by EK, it will be at the expense of the 777X IMO. But not at PAS.

LHA320 wrote:
1) AF/KLM narrowbody order

Not happening. At least not very soon. Perhaps later this year.
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QuawerAir
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 1:25 pm

VGO87 wrote:
LHA320 wrote:
1) AF/KLM narrowbody order
2) Project Sunrise
3) Maybe AS decision for more A321Neo or cancellation and more MAX
4) A220 order from Spirit, AA and LH
5) TK ULH order
6) Emirates confirmation of A330Neo or 789
7) Russian Airlines order SSJ to demonstrate safety

Did I forget something?


The replacement for Finnair's short haul fleet.

Hopefully. It was first planned to be announced in spring 2017. Last year, the former CEO, Pekka Vauramo said to Lentoposti that the decision will be made in 2019.
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DartHerald
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 1:38 pm

Russian order for A350s seems likely.
 
AirwayBill
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 1:39 pm

frigatebird wrote:

well, this time a 737MAX order announcement would not be boring! Unless it's another UFO of course :bored:



The only way I'd see an airline getting the MAX this year is either via UFO order or through an agreement with a lessor (which will remain confidential until people forget about the scandal). But in no way would an airline want to publicly commit to the MAX today, except maybe for some funny characters like O'Leary.

I'm really looking forward to a possible AF/KL nb order, wondering if the whole group could go neo as a standardization measure in the next decade or so.

Edit: ugly German keyboard typos
Last edited by AirwayBill on Wed May 29, 2019 1:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 1:39 pm

I’m expecting the A321XLR to formally launch. I think Airbus will try to launch with around 400 commitments like Boeing did 2 years ago with the 737-10 launch at the Paris Airshow
 
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alberchico
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 1:52 pm

This has been flying under the radar but the prototype for the Eviation Alice all-electric commuter plane is set to be unveiled at the airshow. They have enough funds to last for the duration of the flight test program, so they have a shot at success.

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsJ0vYnrMxo
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PW100
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 2:32 pm

Revelation wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
There is an Aeroflot top-up A350 order somewhere in the pipeline

I see what you did there! :biggrin:


Kudos to both of you, I wonder how many recognized that one!
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 2:34 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Sales season is fully underway. Airline buyers are already at Paris and the Leasing companies are there in full force.

For myself, the most exciting order is Spirit for either the E2 or A220. If the A220 wins, future sales will be easier. We have a separate thread on a MTOW increase.

The E2 must sell or it is in trouble. The E2-175 has no viable orders. The combined E2-190/195 sales are insufficient. Aircastle has struggled to sell their E2s and until the customer base multiplies, no other leasor will buy and there goes half of sales

Pratt is meeting contract now, so they maintain an exclusive on the A220, E2, and MRJ.

I'm curious as to business jet launched. Gulfstream had a long reign with the G650. They must spoil the Global 7500 by launching a new larger top aircraft. The question is when and what engine (Pearl growth, Passport, or a geared PW800).

Cessna is due to make noise post Hemisphere.

Will Dassault come out with a stretch of the 6X. I would be shocked if not already in work. Again, which engine (see above, but also a possibility of a less ambitious stretch with the PW816 or current Pearl, but TPAC range).

Boeing and Airbus will sell. I'm not expecting an exciting year. The reality is what would be a small sale for the MAX or NEO is huge for the A220 or E2.


keesje wrote:
No to forget: Mitsubishi’s next MRJ model "the project"



Only re-arranged seatmaps to make 76 seat look good & derated MTOW paperwork would be a deception IMO, lipstick..

Image
https://www.hmgaerospace.com/news/lara/mitsubishi-mrj/

I fully expect orders for this new MRJ.

Lightsaber


Regardless of the Spirit order or not, the main headline for the E2, or Embraer as a whole, will be the announcement of their JV. LIkewise for the A220, which as a CS300/CS100 frame did not sell in many numbers, so it will be for the E2 or the E program as a whole. It is becoming a Boeing now so the marketing and strategy will adapt. Actually, it will be slightly better given that they have one thing that Airbus has not yet solved with the A220 - production output and slots.

I feel it is going to be a quiet market save from maybe an AF/KL order here and there.

Spirit's decision on the A220/E2 might come into place and will mostly depend on when they want/ex[ect to receive their new aircraft.

I do not see a LH order coming unless if it is for the group and, form the US3, not much will come (no sources - but that's exactly the point - no sources for new orders...).

Boeing might (just might) make some NMA announcement but I feel that the main one might be the announcement that they are ready with the MAX's upgrades to the point that the grounding will end.

Airbus might also come up witht he A321XLR if, and only if, they can disclose orders for it.

Whatever Emirates do (alreadyposted about it) will happen on Dubai Airshow and I do not see anything from Qatar Airways also.

It would be interesting to see how COMAC does given the present trade war with the US.

The JV is known.

I agree on a slow airshow. That makes every order count. I only know of one large order. Perhaps AF/KLM.

I 100% agree the xLR only launches with sufficient orders.

I'm hearing zero on the NMA. That isn't good.

Lightsaber
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PHBVF
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 2:36 pm

alberchico wrote:
This has been flying under the radar but the prototype for the Eviation Alice all-electric commuter plane is set to be unveiled at the airshow. They have enough funds to last for the duration of the flight test program, so they have a shot at success.

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsJ0vYnrMxo


Wonder how a design like this will cope with a tip mounted engine failing?
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VSMUT
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 2:46 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I only know of one large order. Perhaps AF/KLM.


There is the long awaited Air France-KLM next generation narrowbody, rumoured to be decided at Paris. Then there is Qantas rumoured to announce a decision around the same time, with the 737 and A330 replacement and new ULR plane, and possibly Jetstar replacing the 787-8 with A321LR.
 
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LaunchDetected
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 2:49 pm

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422007#unread

IndiGo was supposed to prepare a large Airbus order
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ODwyerPW
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 3:05 pm

787-10ER authority to offer will be announced by Boeing.
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keesje
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 3:10 pm

PHBVF wrote:
alberchico wrote:
This has been flying under the radar but the prototype for the Eviation Alice all-electric commuter plane is set to be unveiled at the airshow. They have enough funds to last for the duration of the flight test program, so they have a shot at success.

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsJ0vYnrMxo


Wonder how a design like this will cope with a tip mounted engine failing?


Yes, I'm considering investing my family savings in the Eviation Alice. Electric is the future and everybody wants to preserve our planet. Investing in the future, what could possibly go wrong? Battery capacity surely is making huge advantages & wingtip strikes will be solved too. Just stretch the landingear, use foldable wingtip whatever..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Sooner787
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 3:25 pm

I think Paris is where Boeing PR minions launch their campaign to restore the image of the Max program.

Big part of that effort would include detailed explanations, demonstrations of the fixes they've
submitted to the FAA.

Not sure if a MAX jet will fly to the show or if it would even be allowed right now.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 4:39 pm

VSMUT wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I only know of one large order. Perhaps AF/KLM.


There is the long awaited Air France-KLM next generation narrowbody, rumoured to be decided at Paris. Then there is Qantas rumoured to announce a decision around the same time, with the 737 and A330 replacement and new ULR plane, and possibly Jetstar replacing the 787-8 with A321LR.

Likely at Paris
Indigo (India) (A32x to lose, engine selection ambiguous)
AF/KLM Narrowbody (A32x to lose, CFM most likely engine, possible widebodies?)
Spirit (E2 vs. A220)

I agree the Qantas order will be large. From what I've been hearing, I think post Paris. I hope I am wrong.


Lightsaber
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Whiteguy
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:15 pm

WS will action it’s options for 10 additional B789s and order 20+ more.....IMHO
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:18 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
I think Paris is where Boeing PR minions launch their campaign to restore the image of the Max program.

Big part of that effort would include detailed explanations, demonstrations of the fixes they've
submitted to the FAA.

Not sure if a MAX jet will fly to the show or if it would even be allowed right now.


I concur, don't think that the proposed 797 is going to be launched, first get the MAX-problems out of the way.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:28 pm

ODwyerPW wrote:
787-10ER authority to offer will be announced by Boeing.


Is the 787-10ER actually a real concept or is this something airliners.net has made up?
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:42 pm

Arion640 wrote:
ODwyerPW wrote:
787-10ER authority to offer will be announced by Boeing.


Is the 787-10ER actually a real concept or is this something airliners.net has made up?


I think it's something we made up. ANZ buying the -10 has turned into the -10 can do SYD-LHR year round. :-)
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:52 pm

A321xlr / A322 combo would be nice. Light a fire under Boeing and the engine makers to go a little bigger.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:55 pm

keesje wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Sales season is fully underway. Airline buyers are already at Paris and the Leasing companies are there in full force.

For myself, the most exciting order is Spirit for either the E2 or A220. If the A220 wins, future sales will be easier. We have a separate thread on a MTOW increase.

The E2 must sell or it is in trouble. The E2-175 has no viable orders. The combined E2-190/195 sales are insufficient. Aircastle has struggled to sell their E2s and until the customer base multiplies, no other leasor will buy and there goes half of sales

Pratt is meeting contract now, so they maintain an exclusive on the A220, E2, and MRJ.

I'm curious as to business jet launched. Gulfstream had a long reign with the G650. They must spoil the Global 7500 by launching a new larger top aircraft. The question is when and what engine (Pearl growth, Passport, or a geared PW800).

Cessna is due to make noise post Hemisphere.

Will Dassault come out with a stretch of the 6X. I would be shocked if not already in work. Again, which engine (see above, but also a possibility of a less ambitious stretch with the PW816 or current Pearl, but TPAC range).

Boeing and Airbus will sell. I'm not expecting an exciting year. The reality is what would be a small sale for the MAX or NEO is huge for the A220 or E2.



I fully expect orders for this new MRJ.

Lightsaber


Regardless of the Spirit order or not, the main headline for the E2, or Embraer as a whole, will be the announcement of their JV. LIkewise for the A220, which as a CS300/CS100 frame did not sell in many numbers, so it will be for the E2 or the E program as a whole. It is becoming a Boeing now so the marketing and strategy will adapt. Actually, it will be slightly better given that they have one thing that Airbus has not yet solved with the A220 - production output and slots.

I feel it is going to be a quiet market save from maybe an AF/KL order here and there.

Spirit's decision on the A220/E2 might come into place and will mostly depend on when they want/ex[ect to receive their new aircraft.

I do not see a LH order coming unless if it is for the group and, form the US3, not much will come (no sources - but that's exactly the point - no sources for new orders...).

Boeing might (just might) make some NMA announcement but I feel that the main one might be the announcement that they are ready with the MAX's upgrades to the point that the grounding will end.

Airbus might also come up witht he A321XLR if, and only if, they can disclose orders for it.

Whatever Emirates do (alreadyposted about it) will happen on Dubai Airshow and I do not see anything from Qatar Airways also.

It would be interesting to see how COMAC does given the present trade war with the US.


Now the MRJ is maturing, MITAC is looking for strategic options to recoup their investments / get traction.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/05/29/mitsubish-renaming-revamping-mrj-considers-us-production-line-nikkei-asia-news/


Spacejet is an awful name. Please don't do that.
Spacejet is so generic that it will be confused with the Superjet.

I also don't think that they thought the MRJ name through. You don't want the thing to be nicknamed MRJency after its first write-off.
Mitsubishi Small Jet MJ70/MJ90 seems most appropriate.

MITAC needs to stop working on concepts and start delivering.
That's what the market wants.
Stop investing and improving, start manufacturing and delivering.
 
passyflyer
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 8:55 pm

Luxair has publicly stated that they want an aircraft which fits between their Q400 and the 737. However they keep pushing out their order which was supposed to be for the Embraer E2 or the A220. Does anybody know where they are in the decision making process? Something to announce in Paris?
 
behramjee
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 10:48 pm

My guesses for Paris Air Show are as follows:

1. Air France for A220s + A321Neos
2. An order for few more B77Fs from one big network carrier
3. Airbus will launch the A321Neo-XLR with many orders (most likely LR conversions)
4. Saudia order for their 10 B781s made official
5. Spirit order for A220s instead of E2s
6. An order or exchange of an order from India
7. Flynas order for A321Neos
8. If SAA is allowed by the Govt, then an order for 20 A359s
 
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ER757
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 11:25 pm

Arion640 wrote:
ODwyerPW wrote:
787-10ER authority to offer will be announced by Boeing.


Is the 787-10ER actually a real concept or is this something airliners.net has made up?

It's an A.net plane - just like the A350-1100
 
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ER757
Posts: 3397
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed May 29, 2019 11:26 pm

ORDfan101 wrote:
ER757 wrote:
ORDfan101 wrote:
I think that in order to capture many orders, the nma should be launched in Paris

Very doubtful this will happen - IMO they are still trying to close the business case - will they be able to make a sufficient ROI? Don't count on a launch announcement - probably just an update on where they stand at this point.


I believe it is necessary for them to launch because the retirement frame for many 757/767s is fast approaching meaning that they must act fast

Prepare to be disappointed
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 2:46 am

I'd like to hear new developments from the electric commuter aircraft world and the start-up SST manufacturers.

And I'll always have my fingers crossed for a United A220 order.

But I believe this will be a boring PAS.
When wasn't America great?


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YIMBY
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 5:48 am

QuawerAir wrote:
VGO87 wrote:
LHA320 wrote:
1) AF/KLM narrowbody order
2) Project Sunrise
3) Maybe AS decision for more A321Neo or cancellation and more MAX
4) A220 order from Spirit, AA and LH
5) TK ULH order
6) Emirates confirmation of A330Neo or 789
7) Russian Airlines order SSJ to demonstrate safety

Did I forget something?


The replacement for Finnair's short haul fleet.

Hopefully. It was first planned to be announced in spring 2017. Last year, the former CEO, Pekka Vauramo said to Lentoposti that the decision will be made in 2019.


I also think this to be more likely than the above. They may have had reason to delay the order, maybe good availability of leasing aircraft, good condition of the aging aircraft, ongoing negotiations with a subcontractor to take care of some short-haul operations, waiting for the announcement of 321XR and/or A220-500, or resolving the problems of new engines, unless just waiting for a better price?

Definitely, if they announce, it is Airbus. (Unless they replace 330's with a new Boeing fleet which would doubly surprise me)
 
Avgeek21
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 6:15 am

What about flydubai ordering A321Neo's due to the MAX saga? They've vowed confidence in the MAX but the big boss of the Dubai Aviation Cooperation said they might consider ordering Airbus if the delay takes too long. So why not replace the MAX 10 with A321Neo's (LR?) The initial MAX 10 order is 50 and possibly more. Or would they wait for the Dubai Airshow this November?
 
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QuawerAir
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 6:40 am

YIMBY wrote:
QuawerAir wrote:
VGO87 wrote:

The replacement for Finnair's short haul fleet.

Hopefully. It was first planned to be announced in spring 2017. Last year, the former CEO, Pekka Vauramo said to Lentoposti that the decision will be made in 2019.


I also think this to be more likely than the above. They may have had reason to delay the order, maybe good availability of leasing aircraft, good condition of the aging aircraft, ongoing negotiations with a subcontractor to take care of some short-haul operations, waiting for the announcement of 321XR and/or A220-500, or resolving the problems of new engines, unless just waiting for a better price?

Definitely, if they announce, it is Airbus. (Unless they replace 330's with a new Boeing fleet which would doubly surprise me)

I agree. Additionally, Wikipedia says A321XLR is expected to be launched this year and would enter into service in 2021 or 2022. I also happened to notice that A321XLR has a range of up to 8,400 km (4,400 nmi), which would make Finnair able to fly with A321 to entire China, India, Canada and some parts of Japan, even with the range of 7,800 km (c. 4,200 nmi). The cabin product should be the same as on wide-body aircraft if they want good passenger experience on such long flights on narrow-body aircraft.
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zkncj
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 7:19 am

Arion640 wrote:
ODwyerPW wrote:
787-10ER authority to offer will be announced by Boeing.


Is the 787-10ER actually a real concept or is this something airliners.net has made up?


Made up at this stage, but an watch this space thing.

Boeing/NZ have said as apart of the three recent 787-10 order. That we’re working on range for the -9/10 and Boeing was able to offer them what they needed.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 8:12 am

lightsaber wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Sales season is fully underway. Airline buyers are already at Paris and the Leasing companies are there in full force.

For myself, the most exciting order is Spirit for either the E2 or A220. If the A220 wins, future sales will be easier. We have a separate thread on a MTOW increase.

The E2 must sell or it is in trouble. The E2-175 has no viable orders. The combined E2-190/195 sales are insufficient. Aircastle has struggled to sell their E2s and until the customer base multiplies, no other leasor will buy and there goes half of sales

Pratt is meeting contract now, so they maintain an exclusive on the A220, E2, and MRJ.

I'm curious as to business jet launched. Gulfstream had a long reign with the G650. They must spoil the Global 7500 by launching a new larger top aircraft. The question is when and what engine (Pearl growth, Passport, or a geared PW800).

Cessna is due to make noise post Hemisphere.

Will Dassault come out with a stretch of the 6X. I would be shocked if not already in work. Again, which engine (see above, but also a possibility of a less ambitious stretch with the PW816 or current Pearl, but TPAC range).

Boeing and Airbus will sell. I'm not expecting an exciting year. The reality is what would be a small sale for the MAX or NEO is huge for the A220 or E2.



I fully expect orders for this new MRJ.

Lightsaber


Regardless of the Spirit order or not, the main headline for the E2, or Embraer as a whole, will be the announcement of their JV. LIkewise for the A220, which as a CS300/CS100 frame did not sell in many numbers, so it will be for the E2 or the E program as a whole. It is becoming a Boeing now so the marketing and strategy will adapt. Actually, it will be slightly better given that they have one thing that Airbus has not yet solved with the A220 - production output and slots.

I feel it is going to be a quiet market save from maybe an AF/KL order here and there.

Spirit's decision on the A220/E2 might come into place and will mostly depend on when they want/ex[ect to receive their new aircraft.

I do not see a LH order coming unless if it is for the group and, form the US3, not much will come (no sources - but that's exactly the point - no sources for new orders...).

Boeing might (just might) make some NMA announcement but I feel that the main one might be the announcement that they are ready with the MAX's upgrades to the point that the grounding will end.

Airbus might also come up witht he A321XLR if, and only if, they can disclose orders for it.

Whatever Emirates do (alreadyposted about it) will happen on Dubai Airshow and I do not see anything from Qatar Airways also.

It would be interesting to see how COMAC does given the present trade war with the US.

The JV is known.

I agree on a slow airshow. That makes every order count. I only know of one large order. Perhaps AF/KLM.

I 100% agree the xLR only launches with sufficient orders.

I'm hearing zero on the NMA. That isn't good.

Lightsaber


You might also have seen the press release from Boeing about the JV name (which sucks but... here you go...). The highlighting fact on this was the well know fact (in Brazil, at least) that the JV will kickstart at the end of the year. It seems, heceforth, that the E2 program will linger in some sort of sidelines until the JV is effectivelly operating and, maybe, a C-Series to A220 style rebranding is done on the program.

One thing I do not know but may indirectly impact on this - Delta's CS/A220 Order - this was announced just before Airbus taking over the program. Will Airbus take a cut on this or BBD wll keep this one for them? LIkewise, Boeing might be considering whether to really push E2s now or not given the JV is not fully operating (agreements apart...)
 
FlyHPN
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 10:55 am

ER757 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
ODwyerPW wrote:
787-10ER authority to offer will be announced by Boeing.


Is the 787-10ER actually a real concept or is this something airliners.net has made up?

It's an A.net plane - just like the A350-1100


I believe you’ve made a typo. It’s the A350-2000. :stirthepot:
 
mxaxai
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 11:07 am

QuawerAir wrote:
I agree. Additionally, Wikipedia says A321XLR is expected to be launched this year and would enter into service in 2021 or 2022. I also happened to notice that A321XLR has a range of up to 8,400 km (4,400 nmi), which would make Finnair able to fly with A321 to entire China, India, Canada and some parts of Japan, even with the range of 7,800 km (c. 4,200 nmi). The cabin product should be the same as on wide-body aircraft if they want good passenger experience on such long flights on narrow-body aircraft.

The more interesting decision is their "regional" E-jet fleet. Will Airbus add some A220s to their A320/321 package? Or will Finnair stick to Embraer?
Both choices can easily cover most of Europe, as well as central Asia.
 
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Polot
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 11:07 am

Jomar777 wrote:
One thing I do not know but may indirectly impact on this - Delta's CS/A220 Order - this was announced just before Airbus taking over the program. Will Airbus take a cut on this or BBD wll keep this one for them? LIkewise, Boeing might be considering whether to really push E2s now or not given the JV is not fully operating (agreements apart...)


Airbus gets a cut off the revenue of all A220s delivered now (granted with DL’s original order that isn’t very much, the order was very much a loss leader) whether the order was signed by BBD or Airbus.

Boeing won’t market/sell the E2 until it has all approvals and the JV official by the end of the year. Knowing that Boeing will soon be on board may encourage previously hesitant airlines to talk/sign with Embraer though.
 
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QuawerAir
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 12:48 pm

mxaxai wrote:
QuawerAir wrote:
I agree. Additionally, Wikipedia says A321XLR is expected to be launched this year and would enter into service in 2021 or 2022. I also happened to notice that A321XLR has a range of up to 8,400 km (4,400 nmi), which would make Finnair able to fly with A321 to entire China, India, Canada and some parts of Japan, even with the range of 7,800 km (c. 4,200 nmi). The cabin product should be the same as on wide-body aircraft if they want good passenger experience on such long flights on narrow-body aircraft.

The more interesting decision is their "regional" E-jet fleet. Will Airbus add some A220s to their A320/321 package? Or will Finnair stick to Embraer?
Both choices can easily cover most of Europe, as well as central Asia.

I believe the E-jets will remain in the fleet for a few years to come and so will ATRs. IIRC, Pekka Vauramo said that AY will probably take deliveries of new narrow-body aircraft around 2025 (if the decision on the aircraft order is being done this year or next year). I can see Finnair purchasing A220s to replace E-jets and ATRs after 2025. They can indeed cover central Asia, but I don't see AY expanding there much as Aeroflot is already a strong player in the market. Of course, AY can expand in Nur-Sultan (Astana) and open a route to Almaty and Urumqi (which apparently is reachable with A220, as well as Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia), but these are probably the only destinations in central Asia AY might fly to (pretty unlikely though).
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JayWings
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 3:12 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Not expecting it, but would love to see AS concert the existing A320neo order into a mix of A321neo and A220 frames.


I would love to see AS turn that order for the 320 NEO into an order for the A220 family. This would allow the inherited 319/320 fleet to go off lease and the 737-700 sub fleet to be retired. I don’t see that happening unfortunately, as I believe AS is looking to get back to a simplified fleet, but one can dream.

Also that earlier typo RE: AS ordering 788’s had me SPEECHLESS! Haha!
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 4:09 pm

Maybe Phillipines will convert options on another 5 A350s, possibly -1000s for what would be their second batch.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 4:16 pm

Polot wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
One thing I do not know but may indirectly impact on this - Delta's CS/A220 Order - this was announced just before Airbus taking over the program. Will Airbus take a cut on this or BBD wll keep this one for them? LIkewise, Boeing might be considering whether to really push E2s now or not given the JV is not fully operating (agreements apart...)


Airbus gets a cut off the revenue of all A220s delivered now (granted with DL’s original order that isn’t very much, the order was very much a loss leader) whether the order was signed by BBD or Airbus.

Boeing won’t market/sell the E2 until it has all approvals and the JV official by the end of the year. Knowing that Boeing will soon be on board may encourage previously hesitant airlines to talk/sign with Embraer though.

Embraer must step up their game. Next year production economics becomes driven by the E2.

For myself, the E2 vs. A220 competitions will be the most interesting to watch at Paris. I can only hope both garner orders.

Lightsaber
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musman9853
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu May 30, 2019 4:36 pm

Avgeek21 wrote:
What about flydubai ordering A321Neo's due to the MAX saga? They've vowed confidence in the MAX but the big boss of the Dubai Aviation Cooperation said they might consider ordering Airbus if the delay takes too long. So why not replace the MAX 10 with A321Neo's (LR?) The initial MAX 10 order is 50 and possibly more. Or would they wait for the Dubai Airshow this November?


max will probably be flying in a couple of months though.
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