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keesje
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:48 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
I predict there will be no 737 Max 8 orders. :crazy:


Indeed FAA is mentioning december now, a bad sign. Not good for the admosphere in the marketplace / Paris.
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Checklist787
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:07 pm

keesje wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
I predict there will be no 737 Max 8 orders. :crazy:


Indeed FAA is mentioning december now, a bad sign. Not good for the admosphere in the marketplace / Paris.


Who expects there will be Max's orders @ PAS'19?

It's neither a surprise nor a predict ... :roll:
 
Skywatcher
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:20 pm

According to another thread the A220 delivery forecast for 2019 is between 45 and 48 aircraft. It is year end heavy loaded.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:38 pm

Skywatcher wrote:
According to another thread the A220 delivery forecast for 2019 is between 45 and 48 aircraft. It is year end heavy loaded.

Looks like BBD is learning a lot of business practices from their Airbus partners! :biggrin:
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musman9853
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:23 pm

The air current is reporting that the a321xlr will be launched at the PAS. at least 1 US airline (AA?)

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 1466206208
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Erebus
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:36 pm

musman9853 wrote:
The air current is reporting that the a321xlr will be launched at the PAS. at least 1 US airline (AA?)

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 1466206208


Or jetBlue?
 
797
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:05 pm

Here's a pretty good forecast of what's coming ahead at the show:

https://airwaysmag.com/paris-air-show/p ... to-expect/

Boeing will have a terrible time. I wouldn't want to be sitting in front of hundreds of headline-hungry journalists asking about 737 MAX and 777X delay.
Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
 
Airlines0613
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:08 pm

797 wrote:
Here's a pretty good forecast of what's coming ahead at the show:

https://airwaysmag.com/paris-air-show/p ... to-expect/

Boeing will have a terrible time. I wouldn't want to be sitting in front of hundreds of headline-hungry journalists asking about 737 MAX and 777X delay.

I don’t see any negative publicity against the 777X. Instead, you’ll most likely see an influx of order, as you can read of all the current orders under negotiation, as the EIS is a year away.
 
T4thH
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
sciing wrote:
musman9853 wrote:

wow, that ramp is super slow. no wonder bbd couldn't get it to work.

This is the ramp for Mobile. Mirabel should go to 10/month.

Mobile will quickly ramp to 4 per month, about 50 per year.

Mirabel needs a redo. As Mobile produces, Mirabel will be re-engineered for 10/month.

I believe production, dispatch reliability, PIP funding, and in service performance (range, fuel economy, passenger acceptance, field performance) is ready for orders of the A220:
1. IAG (rumored 26) vs. E2
2. Spirit (I have read qty 25 to 125) vs. NEO/MAX
3. AF/KLM vs. NEO, MAX, E2
4. Small airline with attention deficit disorder looking at 16 aircraft models for a mere quantity of 5.
5. Korean Air, quantity unknown.

I could hope for a few other airlines, but for now only the voices in my head see potential orders. Although I hear from Pratt contacts about options negotiations. For all I know, KE will take that route (do they have options open?). So I could be double reporting.
Lightsaber


My few Cents:
Mobile: Production/assembly will start in Q3 2019 somewhere in the A320 FAL building (training of the new crews?).
First delivery from new A220 FAL will be performed mid of 2020.
One per month will be reached in year 2021, two for 2022, three in 2023 and 4 in year 2024.
Maximum production numbers, I have seen mid last year, were 8 and 6 for Mobile A220 FAL, but correct seems to be 4/month.
Mirabel shall ramp up to 10/month, this shall be reached expected during year 2024..
(Please note, Airbus calculates a year for smallbodies with 11.5 month (and 11 for widebodies)).

What is planned for Mirabel: Nice one on Fliegerfaust.
https://www.fliegerfaust.com/airbus-a220-news-2621763995.html


Regarding orders:
Korean Air has confirmed, they will order further A220, as the number of 10 A220 they already have, is to low. They are happy with them. They are highly interested in a A220-500 )the prolonged A220 version, name unknown and postulated as A220-500).
Korean Air wiill order them, but not during Paris Air Show, earliest in Q4 this year. most likely next year.

Royal Jordanian (this with disorder, mentioned by Lightsaber) wants to order up to 16, either A320 family, E2 or A220. I do not believe in the E2 in this case and "up to". "Or" not "and/or".

Air Baltic has further 30 options. First delivery dates of options are the year 2022. They have to take the option latest 18 to 24 month before scheduled option dates, as stated, they will earliest order next year (2020 or 2021). They are not intersted in MTOW increase.

LH Group. Regarding bad 2018 Q3 and Q1 of 2019, LH Group Board has now stopped further order of small bodies (for this year). Now the zoo of the small airlines of LH Group and LH is reorganized and number of types is reduced to best only one per airline.Without bad Q4 and Q1, we would have seen a nice A220 order at Paris Air Show. My bet, in 2020 we will see the A220 order (from the pending options (30 left). Please note, I expect changing of existing A220 family orders to A320Xlr during Paris Air Show.

I have seen discussions, IndiGo is interested (to close the gap between their A320 and ATRs), there shall be an interest in China (they will get the certificate soon/2019), Russia (will get certificate 2019, and yes Red Wings has cancelled), several leasing corporations and even AA and UA, as they were comitted, as Delta is succesful with their A220 and they start to fear Moxy and JetBlue.

We will know soon, Paris Air Show will start in few days.

Did you know, MTOW increase for A220-300 will be 2020, and for for the A220-100 in the year 2021.
[code]Scheduled for approval in the A220-300 in mid-2020 and in the A220-100 about a year later, the mtow and resulting range increase will certainly open more transatlantic routes[/code
 
T4thH
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:28 pm

musman9853 wrote:
The air current is reporting that the a321xlr will be launched at the PAS. at least 1 US airline (AA?)

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 1466206208

Everyone seems to be interested in the A321Xlr, especially all airlines in the "middle of europe" (LH Group, IAG, AF/KLM), IndiGo will order further A321 LR and new A320Xlr (already stated)...
US: We will see orders by more than one Airline, including AA and others. We will see many orders by airlines, who are "important".
 
flyabr
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:34 am

I seriously hope there is at least one "total surprise" order at the show, like DL ordering 100 MAX 8s to replace the A320s and 738s! :D
 
smartplane
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:05 am

Wouldn't be surprised if China is announced as an A220 partner (excluding royalties), funding a quantum lift in production volumes.
 
impilot
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:25 am

smartplane wrote:
Wouldn't be surprised if China is announced as an A220 partner (excluding royalties), funding a quantum lift in production volumes.

Why would airbus do that? I see zero upside.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:00 am

flyabr wrote:
I seriously hope there is at least one "total surprise" order at the show, like DL ordering 100 MAX 8s to replace the A320s and 738s! :D


Doubtful - the A320's are today's DC-9's due to the 1988 Factor and 95% parts commonality with their brand new NEO's.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:12 am

I'm curious about the availability of the XLR. This piece from Scherer himself seems to indicate that they are not committing to anything before 2023-24:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... us-458630/

However, we're now hearing airlines converting their orders will get theirs sooner. What do people think we'll find out next week? :bouncy:
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
freqflyer
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:07 am

IndiGo dumps PW for CFM - 600+ engine order rumoured at Paris

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 766098.cms
 
VV
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:12 am

Skywatcher wrote:
According to another thread the A220 delivery forecast for 2019 is between 45 and 48 aircraft. It is year end heavy loaded.


Is this the formal target stated by Airbus Canada Limited Partnership?
 
T4thH
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:42 am

VV wrote:
Skywatcher wrote:
According to another thread the A220 delivery forecast for 2019 is between 45 and 48 aircraft. It is year end heavy loaded.


Is this the formal target stated by Airbus Canada Limited Partnership?

a number of 45 was stated by an official in a recent interview in Jun, but I do not know where anymore. It was just one small remark.
 
unitedewr737
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:38 pm

Is it possible that Etihad might announce and make official its long-rumored joining of star alliance at the air show? Seems like it might be a good place to do so with many if not all of the member airlines and some execs likely to be there.
 
rrbsztk
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:57 pm

T4thH wrote:
VV wrote:
Skywatcher wrote:
According to another thread the A220 delivery forecast for 2019 is between 45 and 48 aircraft. It is year end heavy loaded.


Is this the formal target stated by Airbus Canada Limited Partnership?

a number of 45 was stated by an official in a recent interview in Jun, but I do not know where anymore. It was just one small remark.


Ive been looking for an official statement and no luck at all finding it. Someone also mentioned a while ago a German news source said 44.

viewtopic.php?p=21429475#p21429475
Second post on page 5 of this thread has the latest table with delivery numbers where the 48 came from. Although not airbus official delivery goal, i was able (with help from a.net users - thanks) to piece together news reports etc. to figure out what airlines are expecting each year. There's some uncertainty, a couple times I just split deliveries evenly across years when no exact data was available. Overall though it should give you a rough idea for the next couple few years
 
rrbsztk
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:02 pm

rrbsztk wrote:
T4thH wrote:
VV wrote:

Is this the formal target stated by Airbus Canada Limited Partnership?

a number of 45 was stated by an official in a recent interview in Jun, but I do not know where anymore. It was just one small remark.


Ive been looking for an official statement and no luck at all finding it. Someone also mentioned a while ago a German news source said 44.

viewtopic.php?p=21429475#p21429475
Second post on page 5 of this thread has the latest table with delivery numbers where the 48 came from. Although not airbus official delivery goal, i was able (with help from a.net users - thanks) to piece together news reports etc. to figure out what airlines are expecting each year. There's some uncertainty, a couple times I just split deliveries evenly across years when no exact data was available. Overall though it should give you a rough idea for the next couple few years


And I found the source with 45! (Or a different source then mentioned above...maybe it's in multiple articles).
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ainonl ... tial%3famp
 
YIMBY
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:10 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
I'm curious about the availability of the XLR. This piece from Scherer himself seems to indicate that they are not committing to anything before 2023-24:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... us-458630/

However, we're now hearing airlines converting their orders will get theirs sooner. What do people think we'll find out next week? :bouncy:


Then I expect there to be something more than minimum upgrades. It will not take five years just to design a fuel tank.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:25 pm

YIMBY wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
I'm curious about the availability of the XLR. This piece from Scherer himself seems to indicate that they are not committing to anything before 2023-24:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... us-458630/

However, we're now hearing airlines converting their orders will get theirs sooner. What do people think we'll find out next week? :bouncy:


Then I expect there to be something more than minimum upgrades. It will not take five years just to design a fuel tank.


I suspect Scherer chose his words very carefully.

Specifically - note the use of "A321 versions" (plural) and then saying “The earliest you can expect any new versions of an A321 with some serious work done on it would be the 2023-24 timeframe.

So could that mean A321XLR-as-we-know-it launched at Paris next week, with a rewinged, even more capable verison launched by 2025? :scratchchin:
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Skywatcher
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:08 pm

VV wrote:
Skywatcher wrote:
According to another thread the A220 delivery forecast for 2019 is between 45 and 48 aircraft. It is year end heavy loaded.


Is this the formal target stated by Airbus Canada Limited Partnership?


No-it was a reasonably derived number that originated on another Airliners.net thread.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:14 pm

Ryanair might surprise us with a big MAX order.
Boeing is in big booboo, Ryanair could use more Maxes, time to pull out the chastity kit.
Now is the time to order if you ask MOL.

Perhaps the B737MAX could change its name.
Spacejet sounds nice....oh wait.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:18 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Ryanair might surprise us with a big MAX order.
Boeing is in big booboo, Ryanair could use more Maxes, time to pull out the chastity kit.
Now is the time to order if you ask MOL.

Perhaps the B737MAX could change its name.
Spacejet sounds nice....oh wait.


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Michiganatc
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:40 pm

I don’t see the Beluga XL on the schedule for any of the days. I assumed Airbus would have wanted to show it off.
 
DartHerald
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:57 am

 
DartHerald
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:04 am

deleted -double post.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8361
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:39 am

T4thH wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
sciing wrote:
This is the ramp for Mobile. Mirabel should go to 10/month.

Mobile will quickly ramp to 4 per month, about 50 per year.

Mirabel needs a redo. As Mobile produces, Mirabel will be re-engineered for 10/month.

I believe production, dispatch reliability, PIP funding, and in service performance (range, fuel economy, passenger acceptance, field performance) is ready for orders of the A220:
1. IAG (rumored 26) vs. E2
2. Spirit (I have read qty 25 to 125) vs. NEO/MAX
3. AF/KLM vs. NEO, MAX, E2
4. Small airline with attention deficit disorder looking at 16 aircraft models for a mere quantity of 5.
5. Korean Air, quantity unknown.

I could hope for a few other airlines, but for now only the voices in my head see potential orders. Although I hear from Pratt contacts about options negotiations. For all I know, KE will take that route (do they have options open?). So I could be double reporting.
Lightsaber


My few Cents:
Mobile: Production/assembly will start in Q3 2019 somewhere in the A320 FAL building (training of the new crews?).
First delivery from new A220 FAL will be performed mid of 2020.
One per month will be reached in year 2021, two for 2022, three in 2023 and 4 in year 2024.
Maximum production numbers, I have seen mid last year, were 8 and 6 for Mobile A220 FAL, but correct seems to be 4/month.
Mirabel shall ramp up to 10/month, this shall be reached expected during year 2024..
(Please note, Airbus calculates a year for smallbodies with 11.5 month (and 11 for widebodies)).

What is planned for Mirabel: Nice one on Fliegerfaust.
https://www.fliegerfaust.com/airbus-a220-news-2621763995.html


Regarding orders:
Korean Air has confirmed, they will order further A220, as the number of 10 A220 they already have, is to low. They are happy with them. They are highly interested in a A220-500 )the prolonged A220 version, name unknown and postulated as A220-500).
Korean Air wiill order them, but not during Paris Air Show, earliest in Q4 this year. most likely next year.

Royal Jordanian (this with disorder, mentioned by Lightsaber) wants to order up to 16, either A320 family, E2 or A220. I do not believe in the E2 in this case and "up to". "Or" not "and/or".

Air Baltic has further 30 options. First delivery dates of options are the year 2022. They have to take the option latest 18 to 24 month before scheduled option dates, as stated, they will earliest order next year (2020 or 2021). They are not intersted in MTOW increase.

LH Group. Regarding bad 2018 Q3 and Q1 of 2019, LH Group Board has now stopped further order of small bodies (for this year). Now the zoo of the small airlines of LH Group and LH is reorganized and number of types is reduced to best only one per airline.Without bad Q4 and Q1, we would have seen a nice A220 order at Paris Air Show. My bet, in 2020 we will see the A220 order (from the pending options (30 left). Please note, I expect changing of existing A220 family orders to A320Xlr during Paris Air Show.

I have seen discussions, IndiGo is interested (to close the gap between their A320 and ATRs), there shall be an interest in China (they will get the certificate soon/2019), Russia (will get certificate 2019, and yes Red Wings has cancelled), several leasing corporations and even AA and UA, as they were comitted, as Delta is succesful with their A220 and they start to fear Moxy and JetBlue.

We will know soon, Paris Air Show will start in few days.

Did you know, MTOW increase for A220-300 will be 2020, and for for the A220-100 in the year 2021.
[code]Scheduled for approval in the A220-300 in mid-2020 and in the A220-100 about a year later, the mtow and resulting range increase will certainly open more transatlantic routes[/code


Airbus calculates like everybody else with 12 month in regards to the monthly rate. In earlier years, as the production closed down in TLS for the summer holidays the calculation for TLS was different. XFW, BMS and TSN never closed down for summer holidays, so it was always monthly rate times 12 month. TLS is not any longer closing completly down for two weeks in August.

Mirabel is, as it is, at about 4 frames a month, loading, and it is projected to deliver 45 to 48 frames this year.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8361
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:09 am

T4thH wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
sciing wrote:
This is the ramp for Mobile. Mirabel should go to 10/month.

Mobile will quickly ramp to 4 per month, about 50 per year.

Mirabel needs a redo. As Mobile produces, Mirabel will be re-engineered for 10/month.

I believe production, dispatch reliability, PIP funding, and in service performance (range, fuel economy, passenger acceptance, field performance) is ready for orders of the A220:
1. IAG (rumored 26) vs. E2
2. Spirit (I have read qty 25 to 125) vs. NEO/MAX
3. AF/KLM vs. NEO, MAX, E2
4. Small airline with attention deficit disorder looking at 16 aircraft models for a mere quantity of 5.
5. Korean Air, quantity unknown.

I could hope for a few other airlines, but for now only the voices in my head see potential orders. Although I hear from Pratt contacts about options negotiations. For all I know, KE will take that route (do they have options open?). So I could be double reporting.
Lightsaber


My few Cents:
Mobile: Production/assembly will start in Q3 2019 somewhere in the A320 FAL building (training of the new crews?).
First delivery from new A220 FAL will be performed mid of 2020.
One per month will be reached in year 2021, two for 2022, three in 2023 and 4 in year 2024.
Maximum production numbers, I have seen mid last year, were 8 and 6 for Mobile A220 FAL, but correct seems to be 4/month.
Mirabel shall ramp up to 10/month, this shall be reached expected during year 2024..
(Please note, Airbus calculates a year for smallbodies with 11.5 month (and 11 for widebodies)).

What is planned for Mirabel: Nice one on Fliegerfaust.
https://www.fliegerfaust.com/airbus-a220-news-2621763995.html


Regarding orders:
Korean Air has confirmed, they will order further A220, as the number of 10 A220 they already have, is to low. They are happy with them. They are highly interested in a A220-500 )the prolonged A220 version, name unknown and postulated as A220-500).
Korean Air wiill order them, but not during Paris Air Show, earliest in Q4 this year. most likely next year.

Royal Jordanian (this with disorder, mentioned by Lightsaber) wants to order up to 16, either A320 family, E2 or A220. I do not believe in the E2 in this case and "up to". "Or" not "and/or".

Air Baltic has further 30 options. First delivery dates of options are the year 2022. They have to take the option latest 18 to 24 month before scheduled option dates, as stated, they will earliest order next year (2020 or 2021). They are not intersted in MTOW increase.

LH Group. Regarding bad 2018 Q3 and Q1 of 2019, LH Group Board has now stopped further order of small bodies (for this year). Now the zoo of the small airlines of LH Group and LH is reorganized and number of types is reduced to best only one per airline.Without bad Q4 and Q1, we would have seen a nice A220 order at Paris Air Show. My bet, in 2020 we will see the A220 order (from the pending options (30 left). Please note, I expect changing of existing A220 family orders to A320Xlr during Paris Air Show.

I have seen discussions, IndiGo is interested (to close the gap between their A320 and ATRs), there shall be an interest in China (they will get the certificate soon/2019), Russia (will get certificate 2019, and yes Red Wings has cancelled), several leasing corporations and even AA and UA, as they were comitted, as Delta is succesful with their A220 and they start to fear Moxy and JetBlue.

We will know soon, Paris Air Show will start in few days.

Did you know, MTOW increase for A220-300 will be 2020, and for for the A220-100 in the year 2021.
[code]Scheduled for approval in the A220-300 in mid-2020 and in the A220-100 about a year later, the mtow and resulting range increase will certainly open more transatlantic routes[/code


Airbus calculates like everybody else with 12 month in regards to the monthly rate. In earlier years, as the production closed down in TLS for the summer holidays the calculation for TLS was different. XFW, BMS and TSN never closed down for summer holidays, so it was always monthly rate times 12 month. TLS is not any longer closing completly down for two weeks in August.

Mirabel is, as it is, at about 4 frames a month, loading, and it is projected to deliver 45 to 48 frames this year.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8361
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:21 am

mjoelnir wrote:
T4thH wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Mobile will quickly ramp to 4 per month, about 50 per year.

Mirabel needs a redo. As Mobile produces, Mirabel will be re-engineered for 10/month.

I believe production, dispatch reliability, PIP funding, and in service performance (range, fuel economy, passenger acceptance, field performance) is ready for orders of the A220:
1. IAG (rumored 26) vs. E2
2. Spirit (I have read qty 25 to 125) vs. NEO/MAX
3. AF/KLM vs. NEO, MAX, E2
4. Small airline with attention deficit disorder looking at 16 aircraft models for a mere quantity of 5.
5. Korean Air, quantity unknown.

I could hope for a few other airlines, but for now only the voices in my head see potential orders. Although I hear from Pratt contacts about options negotiations. For all I know, KE will take that route (do they have options open?). So I could be double reporting.
Lightsaber


My few Cents:
Mobile: Production/assembly will start in Q3 2019 somewhere in the A320 FAL building (training of the new crews?).
First delivery from new A220 FAL will be performed mid of 2020.
One per month will be reached in year 2021, two for 2022, three in 2023 and 4 in year 2024.
Maximum production numbers, I have seen mid last year, were 8 and 6 for Mobile A220 FAL, but correct seems to be 4/month.
Mirabel shall ramp up to 10/month, this shall be reached expected during year 2024..
(Please note, Airbus calculates a year for smallbodies with 11.5 month (and 11 for widebodies)).

What is planned for Mirabel: Nice one on Fliegerfaust.
https://www.fliegerfaust.com/airbus-a220-news-2621763995.html


Regarding orders:
Korean Air has confirmed, they will order further A220, as the number of 10 A220 they already have, is to low. They are happy with them. They are highly interested in a A220-500 )the prolonged A220 version, name unknown and postulated as A220-500).
Korean Air wiill order them, but not during Paris Air Show, earliest in Q4 this year. most likely next year.

Royal Jordanian (this with disorder, mentioned by Lightsaber) wants to order up to 16, either A320 family, E2 or A220. I do not believe in the E2 in this case and "up to". "Or" not "and/or".

Air Baltic has further 30 options. First delivery dates of options are the year 2022. They have to take the option latest 18 to 24 month before scheduled option dates, as stated, they will earliest order next year (2020 or 2021). They are not intersted in MTOW increase.

LH Group. Regarding bad 2018 Q3 and Q1 of 2019, LH Group Board has now stopped further order of small bodies (for this year). Now the zoo of the small airlines of LH Group and LH is reorganized and number of types is reduced to best only one per airline.Without bad Q4 and Q1, we would have seen a nice A220 order at Paris Air Show. My bet, in 2020 we will see the A220 order (from the pending options (30 left). Please note, I expect changing of existing A220 family orders to A320Xlr during Paris Air Show.

I have seen discussions, IndiGo is interested (to close the gap between their A320 and ATRs), there shall be an interest in China (they will get the certificate soon/2019), Russia (will get certificate 2019, and yes Red Wings has cancelled), several leasing corporations and even AA and UA, as they were comitted, as Delta is succesful with their A220 and they start to fear Moxy and JetBlue.

We will know soon, Paris Air Show will start in few days.

Did you know, MTOW increase for A220-300 will be 2020, and for for the A220-100 in the year 2021.
[code]Scheduled for approval in the A220-300 in mid-2020 and in the A220-100 about a year later, the mtow and resulting range increase will certainly open more transatlantic routes[/code


Airbus calculates like everybody else with 12 month in regards to the monthly rate. In earlier years, as the production closed down in TLS for the summer holidays the calculation for TLS was different. XFW, BMS and TSN never closed down for summer holidays, so it was always monthly rate times 12 month. TLS is not any longer closing completly down for two weeks in August.

Mirabel is, as it is, at about 4 frames a month, loading, and it is projected to deliver 45 to 48 frames this year.


edit. I should have written BFM instead of BMS.
 
na
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:29 am

Any 747-8F orders?
A new operator, or a 744F operator like SQ, CI or OZ renewing their fleet? Confirmations from Air Bridge or Silkway? Additional orders from Cathay Pacific, Cargolux or Atlas Air?
 
T4thH
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:47 pm

double post, so deleted.
Last edited by T4thH on Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
T4thH
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:49 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Airbus calculates like everybody else with 12 month in regards to the monthly rate. In earlier years, as the production closed down in TLS for the summer holidays the calculation for TLS was different. XFW, BMS and TSN never closed down for summer holidays, so it was always monthly rate times 12 month. TLS is not any longer closing completly down for two weeks in August.

Mirabel is, as it is, at about 4 frames a month, loading, and it is projected to deliver 45 to 48 frames this year.

edit. I should have written BFM instead of BMS


No, I have now only a source in German and only for small-bodies. I have seen it earlier e.g. but I have not any more the sources and I have just found this after short search. The "Airbus Produktionskalender", so a "Airbus production-year?" is 11.5 month.

Airbus arbeitet dagegen mit einem Produktionskalender, der nur 11,5 Monate umfasst, daher würde eine Produktionsrate von 60 Stück pro Monat am Jahresende 690 Auslieferungen betragen.

https://www.fool.de/2016/10/26/kann-airbus-die-flugzeugproduktion-von-boeing-uebertreffen/

Please note, In Hamburg/Germany, the production lines are closed between Christmas and Happy new year. Widebody assembling e.g. TSL, France, summer Holiday. Is there a production between Christmas and Happy New Year, this I do not know? So 11 month for widebodies?
Please note, I have read it somewhere with Airbus and a calculated 11 month production-year for widebodies, but I do not have any more the source.

Strong editing, as it started to be corrupt.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:08 pm

Seems to be a strong rumor circulating that KQ will order/ lease up to 25 E190 E2’s.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:13 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Seems to be a strong rumor circulating that KQ will order/ lease up to 25 E190 E2’s.


That'd be interesting, and perhaps a bit surprising, given that they are said to be interested in exercising A220 options.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:51 pm

In case it has not been said... Boeing announces 797 with many airlines signing up, subsequently with many airlines quietly announcing they are trading their 737-8,9, and 10 orders up to the Boeing 797 in the following months.

One particularly conservative airline completely comes to mind. Southwest will stick with their all Boeing 737 fleet. American will snap up devalued versions much like Southwest will do begrudgingly.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
NZ321
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:30 pm

I reckon Boeing will book at least 1 777x customer and 1 - 2 new 787 customers and a couple of 787 top ups including new customer for 78J. I also think Airbus will get 1-2 new A350 customers including an order for A35K and possibly more A330 Neo customers onto the books. I would predict 2-3 airlines to order A330N. This plane seems to be on the verge of the breakthrough it has been seeking. Plus bumper A321LR and A220 announcements. Maybe 3 or 4 airlines each. MRJ maybe 1-2 significant orders in the pipeline. That will be the lion's share of the show and Boeing will go home with their tail between their legs when it comes to the max. Let's hope they get that sorted soon. Not easy times for them. Just perhaps a new airline will buy the max on the assumption the fix announcement is imminent but I am less confident about this for Paris. Suspect we will need to wait some more months for max orders. Will be interesting to see. What about COMAX?
Plane mad!
 
Scorpio
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:32 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:

That'd be interesting, and perhaps a bit surprising, given that they are said to be interested in exercising A220 options.


I think you're mixing up your airlines codes: KQ = Kenya Airways. KE = Korean Air.
 
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ER757
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:35 pm

NZ321 wrote:
I reckon Boeing will book at least 1 777x customer and 1 - 2 new 787 customers and a couple of 787 top ups including new customer for 78J. I also think Airbus will get 1-2 new A350 customers including an order for A35K and possibly more A330 Neo customers onto the books. I would predict 2-3 airlines to order A330N. This plane seems to be on the verge of the breakthrough it has been seeking. Plus bumper A321LR and A220 announcements. Maybe 3 or 4 airlines each. MRJ maybe 1-2 significant orders in the pipeline. That will be the lion's share of the show and Boeing will go home with their tail between their legs when it comes to the max. Let's hope they get that sorted soon. Not easy times for them. Just perhaps a new airline will buy the max on the assumption the fix announcement is imminent but I am less confident about this for Paris. Suspect we will need to wait some more months for max orders. Will be interesting to see. What about COMAX?

This is probably as an accurate summary as we're likely to see on this entire thread. I'll concur with almost everything you stated. This was going to be Airbus' show anyhow as it should be with their 50th anniversary and all, but Boeing's recent difficulties will make it even more so. But yeah, they're not going home empty-handed.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:13 pm

Scorpio wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

That'd be interesting, and perhaps a bit surprising, given that they are said to be interested in exercising A220 options.


I think you're mixing up your airlines codes: KQ = Kenya Airways. KE = Korean Air.

As a Pratt fan, both are great news! The E2 needs a good sale. But how many are Aircastle?

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:51 pm

Scorpio wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

That'd be interesting, and perhaps a bit surprising, given that they are said to be interested in exercising A220 options.


I think you're mixing up your airlines codes: KQ = Kenya Airways. KE = Korean Air.


Ha - yep. :-)
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:10 pm

flyabr wrote:
I seriously hope there is at least one "total surprise" order at the show, like DL ordering 100 MAX 8s to replace the A320s and 738s! :D


A total surprise would be WN canceling all MAX orders and replacing them all with A320s!

Speaking of single aircraft fleets, any updates on Spirit and the A220/other regional aircraft?
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
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keesje
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:39 am

The list of airlines that could buy/convert to A321XLR keeps growing,
It could be more than 3-4. Mentioned are:
- Airasia
- Jetblue
- AA
- MEA
- United
- IAG
- Indigo
- Azul
- Air Malta
- LEVEL
- Lufthansa Group
- Icelandair
- Wizz Air
I remember A spread NEO's out over the week
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
DartHerald
Posts: 59
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:02 am

Another couple of potential orders to look out for:

New leasing company Accipiter : https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/lesso ... 26603.html

and MEA : https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinrive ... 713655a788
 
dongone04
Posts: 2
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:04 am

LaunchDetected wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
keesje wrote:
- 777X progress, first flight

That would be great!

keesje wrote:
- A380, will it be in the flight program, static Show

That's a very good and interesting question. Not from the point of view of an aviation enthusiast or plane spotter, but from the point of view of a hobby psychologist
Signed, N14AZ, hobby psychologist ;-)

But seriously, with production ending, wouldn't it be a waste of money?


The A380 test frame will stay in Le Bourget after the airshow for static display inside the museum, it will not be that expensive i think.

I bet on a Korean 777X order, and for the big AF/KLM narrowbody some A220 and A320neo.

I also bet on Korean`s 777X order. They said there is a high possibility to expand their fleet of 787s, but I think they`ll stick to the 777X with a 3-3-3 seating which is also on their current 777s and offer wider seats. Also, their oldest 777 and A330 is expected to be phased out soon because their age have almost reached 22 years, the age which Korean retires their planes. As their 744s are going out, too, I bet on the 777X for a replcement. Even a Korean media reported that they`re in preparation to purchase the 777X soon.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Sat Jun 15, 2019 4:25 am

dongone04 wrote:
I also bet on Korean`s 777X order. They said there is a high possibility to expand their fleet of 787s, but I think they`ll stick to the 777X with a 3-3-3 seating which is also on their current 777s and offer wider seats. Also, their oldest 777 and A330 is expected to be phased out soon because their age have almost reached 22 years, the age which Korean retires their planes. As their 744s are going out, too, I bet on the 777X for a replcement. Even a Korean media reported that they`re in preparation to purchase the 777X soon.


KE 787 is configured with the normal 3-3-3 seating in Y so I doubt they will be averse to 3-4-3 on a 777X. I do not mean to suggest that they will order the 777X though.
Never be proud. Always be grateful.
 
Lewton
Posts: 91
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:48 am

NZ321 wrote:
I reckon Boeing will book at least 1 777x customer and 1 - 2 new 787 customers and a couple of 787 top ups including new customer for 78J. I also think Airbus will get 1-2 new A350 customers including an order for A35K and possibly more A330 Neo customers onto the books. I would predict 2-3 airlines to order A330N. This plane seems to be on the verge of the breakthrough it has been seeking. Plus bumper A321LR and A220 announcements. Maybe 3 or 4 airlines each. MRJ maybe 1-2 significant orders in the pipeline. That will be the lion's share of the show and Boeing will go home with their tail between their legs when it comes to the max. Let's hope they get that sorted soon. Not easy times for them. Just perhaps a new airline will buy the max on the assumption the fix announcement is imminent but I am less confident about this for Paris. Suspect we will need to wait some more months for max orders. Will be interesting to see. What about COMAX?


If the A330neo doesn't add any significant orders next week, how much longer shall we keep saying that it's on the verge of a breakthrough?
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1375
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:54 am

Lewton wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I reckon Boeing will book at least 1 777x customer and 1 - 2 new 787 customers and a couple of 787 top ups including new customer for 78J. I also think Airbus will get 1-2 new A350 customers including an order for A35K and possibly more A330 Neo customers onto the books. I would predict 2-3 airlines to order A330N. This plane seems to be on the verge of the breakthrough it has been seeking. Plus bumper A321LR and A220 announcements. Maybe 3 or 4 airlines each. MRJ maybe 1-2 significant orders in the pipeline. That will be the lion's share of the show and Boeing will go home with their tail between their legs when it comes to the max. Let's hope they get that sorted soon. Not easy times for them. Just perhaps a new airline will buy the max on the assumption the fix announcement is imminent but I am less confident about this for Paris. Suspect we will need to wait some more months for max orders. Will be interesting to see. What about COMAX?


If the A330neo doesn't add any significant orders next week, how much longer shall we keep saying that it's on the verge of a breakthrough?

IMO, the A339's best days are ahead of it. It's a no-brainer replacement for the A333 and that cycle really hasn't started yet. The A338 on the other hand could really use some orders to justify its existence, but Airbus probably makes more money on the larger frame so they may not really care.
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