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T54A
Posts: 203
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:47 am

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:41 pm

T54A wrote:
Its almost certain the SAA has signed for some A350's (probably two for now). This will need to be announced soon.



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Arion640
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:47 pm

Miquel787 wrote:
Apparantly Willie Walsh is looking at the 737 MAX for Vueling..And also see a role for the MAX at BA in the future. Source: simpleflying.com


Interesting how he notes the MAX could fit in at BA Gatwick. I could see how it would work from there, but perhaps another negotiating tactic with airbus similar the one they used on the 777X.
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keesje
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:17 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Draken21fx wrote:

The 321 was already outselling Boeing by far. They were in no need to rush things as they were making plenty of money.


the a320 leads the nb market, but only by like 8%. why not hit boeing while they're down and further the lead?


Are you referring to the A320neo family as a whole as I calculate roughly 6500 neo ( family ) sales vs just under 5000 for the MAX ( family ) as far more than 8%?


I think 5000 is a bit on the positive side.. the backlog is 4425 according to Boeing. How much MAX were delivered? 387? Total 4812. Is Jet Airways still in?

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/?cm_re=March_2015-_-Roadblock-_-Orders+%26+Deliveries/#/orders-deliveries

While Airbus.com says 6505 NEO orders today.

If NB marketshare moves well below 40% this week, Boeing will have discussions behind the curtains in the next 2 months. Btw Airbus includes A220 as single aisle. If we include that, or only A220-300 that are A319/737-7 sized..
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Waterbomber2
Posts: 350
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:06 pm

keesje wrote:
ACCS300 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:

the a320 leads the nb market, but only by like 8%. why not hit boeing while they're down and further the lead?


Are you referring to the A320neo family as a whole as I calculate roughly 6500 neo ( family ) sales vs just under 5000 for the MAX ( family ) as far more than 8%?


I think 5000 is a bit on the positive side.. the backlog is 4425 according to Boeing. How much MAX were delivered? 387? Total 4812. Is Jet Airways still in?

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/?cm_re=March_2015-_-Roadblock-_-Orders+%26+Deliveries/#/orders-deliveries

While Airbus.com says 6505 NEO orders today.

If NB marketshare moves well below 40% this week, Boeing will have discussions behind the curtains in the next 2 months. Btw Airbus includes A220 as single aisle. If we include that, or only A220-300 that are A319/737-7 sized..


Well there is market share and backlog.
Does boeing include E2's in its backlog?

Bargain hunters may still order MAX's taking advantage of the whole situation, and it's not like Airbus has a lot of delivery positions to sell within the next 5 years.
Airbus dearly needs to seize the opportunity and ramp-up both A220 and A320 production rates if they want to win market share and sell more aircraft.
If I were Airbus I would also take the A330neo production back to 120 units per year ASAP, even producing white tails to bridge gaps between major orders. Off the shelf i.s.o. to order.
 
musman9853
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:05 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
If I were Airbus I would also take the A330neo production back to 120 units per year ASAP, even producing white tails to bridge gaps between major orders. Off the shelf i.s.o. to order.


but the orders aren't there for the neo, at least not yet. the rate's being dropped to 3.5, which would be 1/3 your goal for them. rate 10 probably isn't even sustainable for the a350, let alone the a330neo
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:27 am

musman9853 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
If I were Airbus I would also take the A330neo production back to 120 units per year ASAP, even producing white tails to bridge gaps between major orders. Off the shelf i.s.o. to order.


but the orders aren't there for the neo, at least not yet. the rate's being dropped to 3.5, which would be 1/3 your goal for them. rate 10 probably isn't even sustainable for the a350, let alone the a330neo


There are still lots of A330/A340/B777's to be replaced.
Why wouldn't it be sustainable?
 
musman9853
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:39 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
If I were Airbus I would also take the A330neo production back to 120 units per year ASAP, even producing white tails to bridge gaps between major orders. Off the shelf i.s.o. to order.


but the orders aren't there for the neo, at least not yet. the rate's being dropped to 3.5, which would be 1/3 your goal for them. rate 10 probably isn't even sustainable for the a350, let alone the a330neo


There are still lots of A330/A340/B777's to be replaced.
Why wouldn't it be sustainable?


I'm sure the a350 could run at rate 10 for a few years, but sales have been really anemic for the a350 these last few years, in a time where the market is really good. it's gotten like 75 orders the last 2 and a half years. in the same time the 787 has sold around 250. there's no reason to think that trend won't hold, which means at rate 10 airbus could run out in like 5 years. still a healthy backlog, but not healthy enough to last till a350neo at the current rate.

besides, if theres a economic downturn, the widebody bubble could pop pretty quickly. I think that in that environment everyone's production rates are probably gonna be a bit high.
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Jouhou
Posts: 1933
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:21 am

musman9853 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:

but the orders aren't there for the neo, at least not yet. the rate's being dropped to 3.5, which would be 1/3 your goal for them. rate 10 probably isn't even sustainable for the a350, let alone the a330neo


There are still lots of A330/A340/B777's to be replaced.
Why wouldn't it be sustainable?


I'm sure the a350 could run at rate 10 for a few years, but sales have been really anemic for the a350 these last few years, in a time where the market is really good. it's gotten like 75 orders the last 2 and a half years. in the same time the 787 has sold around 250. there's no reason to think that trend won't hold, which means at rate 10 airbus could run out in like 5 years. still a healthy backlog, but not healthy enough to last till a350neo at the current rate.

besides, if theres a economic downturn, the widebody bubble could pop pretty quickly. I think that in that environment everyone's production rates are probably gonna be a bit high.



I'm pretty sure the anemic rate of orders lately has had to do with many seeing the evidence of a global downturn long in advance and airlines planning accordingly. We've been seeing a lot of deferrals to years 3-5 after the long predicted recession (next year). It seems about right.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:00 am

musman9853 wrote:
keesje wrote:
The list of airlines that could buy/convert to A321XLR keeps growing,
It could be more than 3-4. Mentioned are:
- Airasia
- Jetblue
- AA
- MEA
- United
- IAG
- Indigo
- Azul
- Air Malta
- LEVEL
- Lufthansa Group
- Icelandair
- Wizz Air
I remember A spread NEO's out over the week


the 321xlr seems to be a hit. I wonder why airbus is so reticent for a rewing though? surely the investment would be worth it


It's the only popular family in production with a 30 year old wing. There must be something they can do that's worth the cost, especially if you look at it as an investment for the next 20 years of A320 production.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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ElroyJetson
Posts: 632
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossibs, Announcements

Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:13 am

edealinfo wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:

I would love to see some A 220 sales as I think it is an outstanding aircraft.


Outstanding? In what way?



Extremely efficient. A generation ahead of other aircraft in its class, With its range a real game changer.
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Asiaflyer
Posts: 841
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:50 am

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:26 am

Norwegian is in talks with Airbus to convert current order, or part of it, for 30 A321LR to the XLR model

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BN727227Ultra
Posts: 587
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2014 7:15 pm

So, with DL basically quiet at Paris...

Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:53 pm

Can one make an educated guess that they're in bed w/ Boeing for the 797/MLM/NMA/Whatchamacallit? Or are they keeping powder dry for the A220-500?
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