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LindyFlight
Posts: 20
Joined: Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:48 pm

Re: Skyteam DL/AF/KL EU-US New routes?

Thu May 30, 2019 6:45 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
LindyFlight wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
Would anyone know the PDEW from AMS/CDG - PHX/SAN/DEN/CLE, I am curious how much is being funneled thru other hubs

CDG-SAN sees over 70 PDEW while AMS-SAN Sees around 35 PDEW. However, both will see numbers rise during the peak season.

WOW I didnt expect SAN to be so high, what is your source?

I’ve got a friend who was an intern for KTPA’s air service development team. He’s provided me with some very helpful data.
 
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LindyFlight
Posts: 20
Joined: Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:48 pm

Re: Skyteam DL/AF/KL EU-US New routes?

Thu May 30, 2019 6:46 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
LindyFlight wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
Would anyone know the PDEW from AMS/CDG - PHX/SAN/DEN/CLE, I am curious how much is being funneled thru other hubs

CDG-SAN sees over 70 PDEW while AMS-SAN Sees around 35 PDEW. However, both will see numbers rise during the peak season.

WOW I didnt expect SAN to be so high, what is your source?

*duplicate post*
 
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PatrickZ80
Posts: 3924
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:33 am

Re: Skyteam DL/AF/KL EU-US New routes?

Thu May 30, 2019 7:11 pm

onwFan wrote:
EWR still seems like the biggest hole in their transatlantic JV. DL pulled out of EWR-AMS and EWR-CDG in the recent past - however VS still flies once daily to LHR (if I am correct). However with recent increase in competition on these routes, they may not be worth re-attempting in the immediate future. With the shutdown of 9W and AF/KL trying to recapture India-US traffic, one-stop options to EWR could be important (but of course, not necessarily high-yielding).


Newark is a hole indeed, but that's logical as all Delta activities around New York are concentrated at JFK. Same goes for it's partners. It's not like New York is completely unserved, far from that. JFK is a very important hub for Delta. With such a hub, serving the airport right next to it sounds like nonsense.
 
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Polot
Posts: 9481
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Skyteam DL/AF/KL EU-US New routes?

Thu May 30, 2019 7:17 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
EWR still seems like the biggest hole in their transatlantic JV. DL pulled out of EWR-AMS and EWR-CDG in the recent past - however VS still flies once daily to LHR (if I am correct). However with recent increase in competition on these routes, they may not be worth re-attempting in the immediate future. With the shutdown of 9W and AF/KL trying to recapture India-US traffic, one-stop options to EWR could be important (but of course, not necessarily high-yielding).


Newark is a hole indeed, but that's logical as all Delta activities around New York are concentrated at JFK. Same goes for it's partners. It's not like New York is completely unserved, far from that. JFK is a very important hub for Delta. With such a hub, serving the airport right next to it sounds like nonsense.

It makes sense that DL no longer flies intercontinental from EWR, but it is surprising that KLM or AF can’t make it work either. There is a large (and fairly wealthy) population in New Jersey that would never consider flying out of JFK. Not everyone using EWR lives/works in NYC.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5114
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Re: Skyteam DL/AF/KL EU-US New routes?

Thu May 30, 2019 7:32 pm

LindyFlight wrote:
CDG-SAN sees over 70 PDEW while AMS-SAN Sees around 35 PDEW. However, both will see numbers rise during the peak season.

I'm sorry but even though I'd love to believe that number for SAN-PAR's traffic, I would need to have it confirmed elsewhere. (And I don't know where to find that sort of int'l data.) I would love to be proved wrong in my assumptions but I just find it too good (read: high) to be true...

The easiest explanation would be that the figure of 70 is not PDEW but is actually the TOTAL (r/t) traffic in the market.

Perhaps the O&D traffic isn't really all that important anyway since the majority of pax on board any flight from Europe to SAN is undoubtedly going to be connecting to/from points beyond. Either AMS or CDG would provide ample connecting opportunities to make a SkyTeam flight viable, although possibly not daily in the beginning. (As we are seeing with LH to FRA.)

bb
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5870
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Skyteam DL/AF/KL EU-US New routes?

Thu May 30, 2019 8:25 pm

The problem with that argument is that a prospective SAN-CDG-XXX already competes with Delta 1-stops SAN-ATL-XXX and SAN-JFK-XXX. If you're not offering a ton of new destinations XXX, or getting people to pay a premium for non-stop SAN-CDG/AMS, there's little point. AMS just isn't a strong O&D to much of the U.S. - it's not LON by any stretch of the imagination.
 
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adamh8297
Posts: 3102
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

Re: Skyteam DL/AF/KL EU-US New routes?

Thu May 30, 2019 10:22 pm

SANFan wrote:
LindyFlight wrote:
CDG-SAN sees over 70 PDEW while AMS-SAN Sees around 35 PDEW. However, both will see numbers rise during the peak season.

I'm sorry but even though I'd love to believe that number for SAN-PAR's traffic, I would need to have it confirmed elsewhere. (And I don't know where to find that sort of int'l data.) I would love to be proved wrong in my assumptions but I just find it too good (read: high) to be true...

The easiest explanation would be that the figure of 70 is not PDEW but is actually the TOTAL (r/t) traffic in the market.

Perhaps the O&D traffic isn't really all that important anyway since the majority of pax on board any flight from Europe to SAN is undoubtedly going to be connecting to/from points beyond. Either AMS or CDG would provide ample connecting opportunities to make a SkyTeam flight viable, although possibly not daily in the beginning. (As we are seeing with LH to FRA.)

bb


That number could be right based on the publicly available data from Brookings (mentioned a million times on this site) which listed 2003 and 2011 for the top metro areas in US. One caveat - 2003 was much higher!!! 58 PDEW vs 40 PDEW and that may have been economy related at the time.

https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/ ... n-america/ You have to select San Diego.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
amadorE175
Posts: 194
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:25 pm

Re: Skyteam DL/AF/KL EU-US New routes?

Fri May 31, 2019 12:25 am

adamh8297 wrote:
SANFan wrote:
LindyFlight wrote:
CDG-SAN sees over 70 PDEW while AMS-SAN Sees around 35 PDEW. However, both will see numbers rise during the peak season.

I'm sorry but even though I'd love to believe that number for SAN-PAR's traffic, I would need to have it confirmed elsewhere. (And I don't know where to find that sort of int'l data.) I would love to be proved wrong in my assumptions but I just find it too good (read: high) to be true...

The easiest explanation would be that the figure of 70 is not PDEW but is actually the TOTAL (r/t) traffic in the market.

Perhaps the O&D traffic isn't really all that important anyway since the majority of pax on board any flight from Europe to SAN is undoubtedly going to be connecting to/from points beyond. Either AMS or CDG would provide ample connecting opportunities to make a SkyTeam flight viable, although possibly not daily in the beginning. (As we are seeing with LH to FRA.)

bb


That number could be right based on the publicly available data from Brookings (mentioned a million times on this site) which listed 2003 and 2011 for the top metro areas in US. One caveat - 2003 was much higher!!! 58 PDEW vs 40 PDEW and that may have been economy related at the time.

https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/ ... n-america/ You have to select San Diego.


And the airport's own data from maybe 2018 or 2017 put SAN's leakage of France-bound passengers to LAX alone at 41 PDEW so it's not crazy to think that there might be an additional 30 or so folks per day who are France-bound but connecting elsewhere. I've argued previously that AF and CDG could make more sense than AMS.

MIflyer12 wrote:
The problem with that argument is that a prospective SAN-CDG-XXX already competes with Delta 1-stops SAN-ATL-XXX and SAN-JFK-XXX. If you're not offering a ton of new destinations XXX, or getting people to pay a premium for non-stop SAN-CDG/AMS, there's little point. AMS just isn't a strong O&D to much of the U.S. - it's not LON by any stretch of the imagination.


True, though making 1-stop in CDG/AMS to markets DL doesn't serve from ATL/JFK could be appealing and would save on having to connect twice to those markets. UA has SAN-EWR/IAD-XXX and LH is still here. LON is a different animal, of course, but AA too has similar alternative routings. I think in a couple years there would be enough demand to fly SAN-CDG.

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