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TObound
Posts: 66
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:52 pm

Whatever Boeing says, I'd caution against assuming the 777X will get a smooth ride. I would bet money a lot of regulators (particularly EASA) are probably going to do a full review to determine if the cert codes Boeing's want to sign off against are valid. The MAX is a process failure, with some part played by regulators who allowed Boeing to use older codes (all driven by process). They won't want to get caught with their pants down again. And a single 777X thundering in would kill more than the combined MAX crashes.

I think the airlines are right to expect a delay. But if it comes, also won't be all that bad. Maybe a few months while they all argue over which standards and codes are appropriate. I'm sure Boeing is building margin on every reg and standard they certify against.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6257
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:59 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
TObound wrote:

Everything I've read on the 777X has me more confident than the MAX. Also, I think there's a lot more natural caution when wings and cockpits are changed.




I'll be honest. I think sometimes professionals lose the forest for the trees. And I strongly suspect there's an element of this in the MAX case. You sign off changes all the time. You talk about different cert codes and basis all the time. And it's easy to get complacent or not realize that the change being considered is as impactful as it is. The MAX really looks like a case bordering on normalization of deviance hiding behind regulatory gobbledy-gook. Cert code this. Cert basis that. Oh look the compliance matrix is all signed off. Should be good right?

Everybody needs to ask themselves how this airplane got signed off. And not just the US. The rest of the world needs to ask if reciprocity is really helping if the results are nobody waving the bullshit flag on cases like this.


All valid points. I’m not personally an AR so don’t sign anything off.

I’ve stated before. There were some assumption about flight crew response baked into the safety analysis. Did it prove to be wrong? Apparently, with tragic results. Were mistakes made? Yes.

What I have been pushing back on are ridiculous notions that Boeing neglects safety to improve profits. Or that the FAA and Boeing are in bed, etc.


You see mistakes, I see a complete break down of checks and balances regarding a safety relevant design.


However you want to word it, I can agree with you. 360 people were lost so clearly something broke down big time.

Ironic part is that one of the big Whistleblowers should have been one of those checks and balances, but he dropped the ball. From his job role, he should have flagged MCAS as being a significant enough change to how the Flight Control system interacts with the flight crew, that it warranted a human factors review and pilot trials of potential failure modes. If he’d done his job properly, the problem might have been caught and fixed before delivery.

Funny how he forgets to mention this minor detail when he talks to the press. ;)
Last edited by BoeingGuy on Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 12943
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:02 am

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Now after weeks of discussions, Boeing finally starts warning on 777X delays, because of the way the aircraft is certified.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/06/05/stabi ... um=twitter from today quotes Boeing's CFO speaking to a room filled with financial analysts:

Boeing’s newest jetliner, the 777X, has not been affected by the need to re-certify the 737 MAX, Smith said.

The first two 777X flight test aircraft are on the ramp at Boeing’s Everett plant, and the next two are in final assembly there. GE’s massive GE9X engine has required retesting, which has slowed progress. However, it is not an issue with the 777X program’s production system, Smith assured the conference attendees.

“We still expect to fly this year with a 2020 entry into service,” he said.

No warning here.

FUD narrative derailed.


The CFO is right, the 777X has not been affected.
But his boss warned it might happen a few days ago.

“I don't see anything there right now that would significantly alter the timeline for the 777X, but it's possible we could see something that would alter the content of the test program or how we go about certification”.


Image

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aerotime.aero/aerotime.team/22693-boeing-ceo-says-777x-not-yet-affected-by-737-max-crisis%3fv=amp

Making a perfectly solid certification program even better?

Feel free to ignore / forget.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Revelation
Posts: 20610
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:21 am

keesje wrote:
The CFO is right, the 777X has not been affected.
But his boss warned it might happen a few days ago.

Right, there might be impact or there might not be impact, but at this point he sees nothing that would significantly impact the timeline.

Since these statements have captivated your interest, and since you're an aerospace professional, feel free to go beyond offering up pictures of Boeing's CEO that any internet geek could embed in a post and instead offer up your professional assessment:

    By how many months do you think 777x will miss its stated 2020 EIS date?

keesje wrote:
Feel free to ignore / forget.

Thank you, I think I will, unless you have something more substantial to offer rather then FUD.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 13697
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:40 am

Revelation wrote:
Right, there might be impact or there might not be impact, but at this point he sees nothing that would significantly impact the timeline.

Since these statements have captivated your interest, and since you're an aerospace professional, feel free to go beyond offering up pictures of Boeing's CEO that any internet geek could embed in a post and instead offer up your professional assessment:

By how many months do you think 777x will miss its stated 2020 EIS date?



I am hearing while the grandfathering and the certification process will not change, I hear the FAA is asking for more documents and data than expected and this might translate into a 12 month slip.

Boeing does no anything for certain, it cannot say at this stage there will be a slip. That does not mean investors at a later date will not litigate against them for not being more forthcoming like the action that has commenced regarding 737MAX disclosures.

What does seem to be irreversible by the 737MAX issues is the automatic acceptance of FAA certification by other CAAs. This is more of an issue as the first few years of production are all exports.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8361
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:38 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

All valid points. I’m not personally an AR so don’t sign anything off.

I’ve stated before. There were some assumption about flight crew response baked into the safety analysis. Did it prove to be wrong? Apparently, with tragic results. Were mistakes made? Yes.

What I have been pushing back on are ridiculous notions that Boeing neglects safety to improve profits. Or that the FAA and Boeing are in bed, etc.


You see mistakes, I see a complete break down of checks and balances regarding a safety relevant design.


However you want to word it, I can agree with you. 360 people were lost so clearly something broke down big time.

Ironic part is that one of the big Whistleblowers should have been one of those checks and balances, but he dropped the ball. From his job role, he should have flagged MCAS as being a significant enough change to how the Flight Control system interacts with the flight crew, that it warranted a human factors review and pilot trials of potential failure modes. If he’d done his job properly, the problem might have been caught and fixed before delivery.

Funny how he forgets to mention this minor detail when he talks to the press. ;)


A mistake is a mistake, but there should be a system at Boeing to catch mistakes. If mistakes are not caught, that shows that the system to catch mistakes is not working, not existing, or certain persons can order the system to be bypassed. The last is the most horrifying.

The other glaring example of not catching a mistake, was the 787 battery debacle.

In regards to grandfathering, there is always somebody having to make a the decision if a thing is unchanged or changed so little, that it may be grandfathered. There again there should be a system to catch mistakes.

My example for grandfathering gone bad, is the trim wheel in the 737. It should be the last resort safety it is declared to be, it should be working if you need it to work, all over the flight envelope of the 737.
It may have been OK that you needed a roller coaster process to use it 60 years ago, but is that OK today? It went through a redesign from the classic to the NG, getting less authority, due to smaller wheels and added dampers, and having to move a larger surface, enlarged horizontal stabilisier, needing actually more power to move it.
At the move from the classic to the NG that system should have been seriously looked at, if a redesign was needed, instead of grandfathering it.

My point is, the system that reevaluates safety critical decisions, seems to be not existing or seriously hampered at Boeing, the saving grace seems to be, that Boeing has not done a lot of mistakes.
 
smartplane
Posts: 977
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:53 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
Ironic part is that one of the big Whistleblowers should have been one of those checks and balances, but he dropped the ball. From his job role, he should have flagged MCAS as being a significant enough change to how the Flight Control system interacts with the flight crew, that it warranted a human factors review and pilot trials of potential failure modes. If he’d done his job properly, the problem might have been caught and fixed before delivery.

Funny how he forgets to mention this minor detail when he talks to the press. ;)

Even more ironic, is the FAA compliance maturity accorded to Boeing, which underpins the level of self-approval for the MAX and X, is there should be three checks and balances, not one, and certainly not by one person.
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1359
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:02 pm

zeke wrote:
What does seem to be irreversible by the 737MAX issues is the automatic acceptance of FAA certification by other CAAs. This is more of an issue as the first few years of production are all exports.

Agreed, In my pollyannaish version of the world, I thought other certifying agencies actually did peer-review their counterparts. Rather it seems like its "Oh the FAA says it's cool, so we're good too. Where are we going for lunch?" deal. Extra eyes actually doing their jobs is a good thing for all parties, especially the flying public.
 
smartplane
Posts: 977
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:39 pm

Bricktop wrote:
zeke wrote:
What does seem to be irreversible by the 737MAX issues is the automatic acceptance of FAA certification by other CAAs. This is more of an issue as the first few years of production are all exports.

Agreed, In my pollyannaish version of the world, I thought other certifying agencies actually did peer-review their counterparts. Rather it seems like its "Oh the FAA says it's cool, so we're good too. Where are we going for lunch?" deal. Extra eyes actually doing their jobs is a good thing for all parties, especially the flying public.

Peer reviews by other certification authorities are one of the five components to safer global aviation, referenced in FAA and EASA material. But what was the offline discussion as to it's practical application?
 
SteelChair
Posts: 987
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:23 am

To the original question......yes grandfathering has been taken too far.

I am aghast that no executives have taken the fall for this. Boeing is totally mis-managed right now, a total trainwreck imho. If anyone other than an executive caused 360 lives to be lost, they would probably be facing jail time. And this is after all the other major snafus of the last 15 years. Isn't there any accountability whatsoever? Aren't the leaders of the company ultimately resonsible? They sure when to take credit for the good when stock options and other compensation are discussed.
 
Ziyulu
Posts: 550
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:35 am

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:50 am

What about the 747-8? Only three passenger airlines operate it, so it could be dangerous, but not enough flight hours to prove deadly.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6257
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:21 am

SteelChair wrote:
To the original question......yes grandfathering has been taken too far.

I am aghast that no executives have taken the fall for this. Boeing is totally mis-managed right now, a total trainwreck imho. If anyone other than an executive caused 360 lives to be lost, they would probably be facing jail time. And this is after all the other major snafus of the last 15 years. Isn't there any accountability whatsoever? Aren't the leaders of the company ultimately resonsible? They sure when to take credit for the good when stock options and other compensation are discussed.


You are aware there has been significant turnover in Executive Leadership, right? Dennis was president of BDS; and Kevin wasn’t even working at Boeing when the 737 Max design and all the other things you refer to occurred.

So who exactly do you propose be fired now? Or does it just feel good to say that?

Despite the fact that I’ve defended Boeing over a lot of ridiculous assertions posted on A.net, no-one detests how Boeing has been so mismanaged that past 20+ years more than I. Selling off the Training department in 1997 and then lying to the press about every aspect of it was when I knew things were declining. DCAC/MRM was another disaster. It just continued. All the while Harry and McSlimeball were lining their pockets with money.

You know who’s fault this really is? Wall Street. McSlimeball has been the most disastrous CEO in company history. He’s dismantled and laid off World Class organizations that benefited Boeing; he cut benefits; threatened employees, all while making himself rich.

And you know what? While McSlimeball is running the company into the ground, the stock price had record growth. Blame Wall Street for the 360 deaths if you want.

I have observations why every Boeing program is late and over budget too that I’ll share in another reply sometime. More incompetence. Save money upfront and then spend ten times more later to fix it.

I think Harry and McSlimeball are despicable corrupt men (Harry even cheated on his wife while CEO). Phil wasn’t so much a slimeball, but just an unstable incompetent boob who might have meant well (he also cheated on his wives while a Boeing executive).

Having said all this; I think Dennis and Kevin deserve a chance. They inherited this mess, not create it. I think they are huge improvements over their predecessors. (I did like Jim Albaugh too, but Ray Conner seemed like a jerk).

What you are proposing could be disastrous. What, fire Dennis and replace him with another Harry? Let’s use some common sense here, not emotion.
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 12943
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Has grandfathering been taken too far?

Fri Jun 28, 2019 8:03 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
Blame Wall Street for the 360 deaths if you want.
.....
What you are proposing could be disastrous. What, fire Dennis and replace him with another Harry? Let’s use some common sense here, not emotion.


It's a different topic but you might be right. Boeing has been one of the most popular, proud US stocks over the last decade & that put a lot of pressure on people influencing / deciding on time tables & promises to the market. Maybe the higher management should be given a good salary & not mainly stock options in an industry where safety should be #1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-15/boeing-increases-ceo-s-pay-27-to-23-4-million-for-last-year

Kind of agree on Dennis. He is an engineer who understands the challenges behind the problem. It showed he couldn't resists the stupid communication briefings he got early on in this drama. The handling of the Lionair crash (before Ethiiopian) is a highly disturbing example how financial power, public preferences & media perception management easily defeated aviation safety. That was real worrying in my opinion. I assume the board will forgive Dennis his public unhandyness, keep him out of the media, let him fix this & provide him a good retirement plan / supervisory position afterwards. Some one has to do the job.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
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