777ER
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New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:56 am

Welcome to the June 2019 edition.

Link to the May 2019 viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1421465
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Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
777ER
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Sun Jun 02, 2019 7:21 am

The first A320NEO International service for WLG arrived yesterday from BNE. Today -NHA operated WLG-MEL-WLG-BNE.

A321s scheduled to operate Saturday's WLG - NAN - WLG for 11 weeks from August and Sunday's WLG - MEL - WLG also from August for 11 weeks.
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Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
777ER
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:09 am

With the QF/AA JV having received its interim approval by the USDOT, what could we see here from AA/QF? Obviously AA AKL-LAX will receive a boost, but could there be a possibility of say AKL-DFW?
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With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:57 am

777ER wrote:
With the QF/AA JV having received its interim approval by the USDOT, what could we see here from AA/QF? Obviously AA AKL-LAX will receive a boost, but could there be a possibility of say AKL-DFW?


I was thinking the same and mentioned it in the OZ thread, they mentioned 3 new routes initially of which QF will do 2 Being BNE-SFO/ORD, the 1 for AA could be AKL-DFW? This has been mentioned in the past. MEL-DFW is a certainty at some point but may need to wait for project sunrise imo, I see QF doing DFW-OZ however given the catchment, however I can’t see QF doing anything long haul ex AKL so I think an AA service AKL-DFW is quite likely.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:59 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
777ER wrote:
With the QF/AA JV having received its interim approval by the USDOT, what could we see here from AA/QF? Obviously AA AKL-LAX will receive a boost, but could there be a possibility of say AKL-DFW?


I was thinking the same and mentioned it in the OZ thread, they mentioned 3 new routes initially of which QF will do 2 Being BNE-SFO/ORD, the 1 for AA could be AKL-DFW? This has been mentioned in the past. MEL-DFW is a certainty at some point but may need to wait for project sunrise imo, I see QF doing DFW-OZ however given the catchment, however I can’t see QF doing anything long haul ex AKL so I think an AA service AKL-DFW is quite likely.


There is definitely a New Zealand route in the offing - but not listed above.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:06 am

a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
777ER wrote:
With the QF/AA JV having received its interim approval by the USDOT, what could we see here from AA/QF? Obviously AA AKL-LAX will receive a boost, but could there be a possibility of say AKL-DFW?


I was thinking the same and mentioned it in the OZ thread, they mentioned 3 new routes initially of which QF will do 2 Being BNE-SFO/ORD, the 1 for AA could be AKL-DFW? This has been mentioned in the past. MEL-DFW is a certainty at some point but may need to wait for project sunrise imo, I see QF doing DFW-OZ however given the catchment, however I can’t see QF doing anything long haul ex AKL so I think an AA service AKL-DFW is quite likely.


There is definitely a New Zealand route in the offing - but not listed above.


Not AKL-DFW? How about something left field like CHC-LAX?
 
NPL8800
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:42 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I was thinking the same and mentioned it in the OZ thread, they mentioned 3 new routes initially of which QF will do 2 Being BNE-SFO/ORD, the 1 for AA could be AKL-DFW? This has been mentioned in the past. MEL-DFW is a certainty at some point but may need to wait for project sunrise imo, I see QF doing DFW-OZ however given the catchment, however I can’t see QF doing anything long haul ex AKL so I think an AA service AKL-DFW is quite likely.


There is definitely a New Zealand route in the offing - but not listed above.


Not AKL-DFW? How about something left field like CHC-LAX?


That was my thinking as well actually as I have heard rumblings about something like that in the works for CHC.

A 3-4/weekly 788 summer seasonal wouldn't be the most high risk option out there. Add the increased likelihood of AKL-LAX going year round 789 maybe 788 in NS that'd probably round out the NZ ops quite nicely initially.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:58 am

NPL8800 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
a7ala wrote:

There is definitely a New Zealand route in the offing - but not listed above.


Not AKL-DFW? How about something left field like CHC-LAX?


That was my thinking as well actually as I have heard rumblings about something like that in the works for CHC.

A 3-4/weekly 788 summer seasonal wouldn't be the most high risk option out there. Add the increased likelihood of AKL-LAX going year round 789 maybe 788 in NS that'd probably round out the NZ ops quite nicely initially.


Interesting aye, I thought UA maybe with a seasonal 788 SFO-CHC would be the most likely for CHC.

Outside of AKL-DFW I can’t think of anything else ex AKL, QF won’t do long haul ex NZ again, and AA don’t have any other reasonable international hubs, they don’t do much ex ORD these days and JFK is to far and not doable with their fleet.
 
Sylus
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:59 am

NPL8800 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
a7ala wrote:

There is definitely a New Zealand route in the offing - but not listed above.


Not AKL-DFW? How about something left field like CHC-LAX?


That was my thinking as well actually as I have heard rumblings about something like that in the works for CHC.

A 3-4/weekly 788 summer seasonal wouldn't be the most high risk option out there. Add the increased likelihood of AKL-LAX going year round 789 maybe 788 in NS that'd probably round out the NZ ops quite nicely initially.


I too have heard rumblings about something like that for CHC, particularly from a US carrier. Hopefully something like that happens. Would be cool. And Let's be honest, you probably couldn't get a more ideal aircraft for a CHC-LAX route than the 788.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:43 am

What about AA or QF doing JFK - AKL? NZ/UA beat QF/AA to ORD - Australasia, so maybe QF/AA want to beat NZ/UA to NYC - Australasia?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:46 am

Sylus wrote:
NPL8800 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Not AKL-DFW? How about something left field like CHC-LAX?


That was my thinking as well actually as I have heard rumblings about something like that in the works for CHC.

A 3-4/weekly 788 summer seasonal wouldn't be the most high risk option out there. Add the increased likelihood of AKL-LAX going year round 789 maybe 788 in NS that'd probably round out the NZ ops quite nicely initially.


I too have heard rumblings about something like that for CHC, particularly from a US carrier. Hopefully something like that happens. Would be cool. And Let's be honest, you probably couldn't get a more ideal aircraft for a CHC-LAX route than the 788.

I've heard NZ is actually losing market share at CHC, on long-haul connections - that is to say, the growth in in-bound long-haul travel to CHC is coming via Australia, and not via AKL. That, to me, would indicate that AA/QF may be happy to leave US - CHC as is, routing via Australia.

It'll be interesting to see if NZ reconsiders CHC - LAX again. We will soon see NZ's 787-9's doing CHC - SIN, in addition to CHC - PER, so the scope for tying in a rotation to LAX may increase? Or, alternatively, we may see UA use its smaller 787-8 to do LAX or SFO - CHC, in the JV?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:50 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
AA service AKL-DFW is quite likely.

Agree - this has to be the front-runner for any new AA service here. The connections through DFW are growing - like with AA's new DFW - DUB flight, launching this week.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:52 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
AA don’t have any other reasonable international hubs.

AKL - MIA? It would be shorter than AKL - ORD.

:lol: :lol:

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:15 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
AA don’t have any other reasonable international hubs.

AKL - MIA? It would be shorter than AKL - ORD.

:lol: :lol:

Cheers,

C.


Yes indeed - AKL-MIA would be quite possible. But likely? AA is not one for ultra long haul flying. It might be possible if it tags on across the ditch to Sydney or similar - but I'd still say DFW is more likely. But I haven't done an analysis of AA international connections out of MIA. Certainly, DFW is home base and has quite a lot of connections to Central America but no longer so many to South America as those depart from MIA along with many Caribbean routes the market for which can't be huge from this part of the world. Anyway - can't see it's in AA's interests to fly only from LAX. I guess we will find out soon! I wouldn't be holding my breath for CHC.
Plane mad!
 
NYKiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:54 pm

Have a question on the NZ / UA JV.

My understanding is that they are metal neutral, and that also the fares should be the similar? Or under a JV can one price differently to the other. Case in point, I am looking at a trip back home at the end of August, and NZ have a fare sale for approx. $1,350 NY - AKL, but when I look at UA their fares are still $1,950 for the same flights. I am trying to book a UA ticket but on NZ flights so not sure if that makes any difference as I presumed they would price similarly...of under a JV can the 2 airlines still price, or have to price independently. The only other option I can think of is that UA just haven't updated their fares yet to match NZ.

interested in any comments here as I want to buy through UA as I get more miles than on NZ ticket. Thanks.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:47 pm

Delivery of Air NZ A320-271N (msn 9207) ZK-NND appears to be about mid October 2019.

https://aibfamily.flights/production-list/A320 has just been updated and ZK-NND is XFW built msn 9207. A320-251N (msn 8939) was delivered from XFW on 03 Jun and is 268 aircraft earlier on the production list. The A320 family production rate is about 65 a month, so 03 Jun plus four and a bit months.

PA515
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:50 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
AA service AKL-DFW is quite likely.

Agree - this has to be the front-runner for any new AA service here. The connections through DFW are growing - like with AA's new DFW - DUB flight, launching this week.

Cheers,

C.


I suspect CHC-LAX with AA is part of the deal to get regulatory approval here in New Zealand for the JV (just as I suspect CX's CHC-HKG seasonal was as well, and the reason why SQ first flew CHC-SIN in the 1980's). If thats the case then its non-negotiable and will happen once the US DoT process is complete - although the delay might mean it wont happen this NW and maybe next.

There have been significant questions raised in the wider tourism industry about the wider benefits of these deals and the lack of growth away from AKL - and the govt seems to be listening.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:17 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
What about AA or QF doing JFK - AKL? NZ/UA beat QF/AA to ORD - Australasia, so maybe QF/AA want to beat NZ/UA to NYC - Australasia?

Cheers,

C.


Other than JFK-TYO I don’t think AA do any long haul ex JFK only 6-8 hrs to Europe, very little chance that they would consider a 17.5 hr flight to AKL, their 789 seats 285 50 more than QF who won’t do long haul from AKL again with their own metal.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:22 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Sylus wrote:
NPL8800 wrote:

That was my thinking as well actually as I have heard rumblings about something like that in the works for CHC.

A 3-4/weekly 788 summer seasonal wouldn't be the most high risk option out there. Add the increased likelihood of AKL-LAX going year round 789 maybe 788 in NS that'd probably round out the NZ ops quite nicely initially.


I too have heard rumblings about something like that for CHC, particularly from a US carrier. Hopefully something like that happens. Would be cool. And Let's be honest, you probably couldn't get a more ideal aircraft for a CHC-LAX route than the 788.

I've heard NZ is actually losing market share at CHC, on long-haul connections - that is to say, the growth in in-bound long-haul travel to CHC is coming via Australia, and not via AKL. That, to me, would indicate that AA/QF may be happy to leave US - CHC as is, routing via Australia.

It'll be interesting to see if NZ reconsiders CHC - LAX again. We will soon see NZ's 787-9's doing CHC - SIN, in addition to CHC - PER, so the scope for tying in a rotation to LAX may increase? Or, alternatively, we may see UA use its smaller 787-8 to do LAX or SFO - CHC, in the JV?

Cheers,

C.


I guess QF have grown in CHC by reinstating BNE/MEL service in the last few years, I’m surprised in some way that EK haven’t added DXB-CHC maybe short of 77Ls?

Outside of DFW-AKL to me LAX-CHC is the next most obvious route to NZ.

Personally I’d see UA running a 787 LAX/SFO-CHC over an NZ operated service, I was surprised when NZ announced their own service CHC-SIN.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:23 pm

PA515 wrote:
Delivery of Air NZ A320-271N (msn 9207) ZK-NND appears to be about mid October 2019.

https://aibfamily.flights/production-list/A320 has just been updated and ZK-NND is XFW built msn 9207. A320-251N (msn 8939) was delivered from XFW on 03 Jun and is 268 aircraft earlier on the production list. The A320 family production rate is about 65 a month, so 03 Jun plus four and a bit months.

PA515


Think you mean ZK-NNF.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:26 pm

a7ala wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
AA service AKL-DFW is quite likely.

Agree - this has to be the front-runner for any new AA service here. The connections through DFW are growing - like with AA's new DFW - DUB flight, launching this week.

Cheers,

C.


I suspect CHC-LAX with AA is part of the deal to get regulatory approval here in New Zealand for the JV (just as I suspect CX's CHC-HKG seasonal was as well, and the reason why SQ first flew CHC-SIN in the 1980's). If thats the case then its non-negotiable and will happen once the US DoT process is complete - although the delay might mean it wont happen this NW and maybe next.

There have been significant questions raised in the wider tourism industry about the wider benefits of these deals and the lack of growth away from AKL - and the govt seems to be listening.


Yes you could well be right there, I thought CHC had done alright, it has picked up CZ/CX, lost CI, but more SIN services, always been a bit surprised KE haven’t been back since 2005/06, maybe a PVG service, would have to be MU as NZ/CA have a JV but CA would likely operate to PEK instead.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:31 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:

Personally I’d see UA running a 787 LAX/SFO-CHC over an NZ operated service, I was surprised when NZ announced their own service CHC-SIN.


Remember it was a requirement of the NZ/SQ JV to NZ to do it. With SQ introducing the lower capacity A350 into CHC it would have resulted in a loss of annual seats which im sure would have broken the agreement with the govt. NZ flying the seasonal flights SQ used to do with a larger configuration preserves capacity and, as it turns out, is better for the CHC market giving more seats during the NW peak season when flights are full and less seats during the NS low season.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:37 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
[
Yes you could well be right there, I thought CHC had done alright, it has picked up CZ/CX, lost CI, but more SIN services, always been a bit surprised KE haven’t been back since 2005/06, maybe a PVG service, would have to be MU as NZ/CA have a JV but CA would likely operate to PEK instead.


I think CHC has done quite well. Many times though airlines will follow what is perceived to be the less risky tried and true of flying to the biggest city and are not prepared to take a punt on a more risky option which may turn out to be just as profitable for them. In these cases its the govt of the day that can "encourage" airlines to try something new.

I suspect with all the unfortunately issues Christchurch has been having it will be a long time before a Korean carrier returns. Definitely scope for CHC to get any of the airlines that are currently flying to AKL when they consider expansion.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:17 pm

a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Personally I’d see UA running a 787 LAX/SFO-CHC over an NZ operated service, I was surprised when NZ announced their own service CHC-SIN.


Remember it was a requirement of the NZ/SQ JV to NZ to do it. With SQ introducing the lower capacity A350 into CHC it would have resulted in a loss of annual seats which im sure would have broken the agreement with the govt. NZ flying the seasonal flights SQ used to do with a larger configuration preserves capacity and, as it turns out, is better for the CHC market giving more seats during the NW peak season when flights are full and less seats during the NS low season.


True, SQ have a large gap in their long haul fleet from the 4 class 77W 264 seats, 3 class A359 253 seats to the A380 at 409 or 441 seats and 471 on the new A380s, they do have some regional 78Js 337 seats and A359s 303 seats that wouldn’t be able to serve CHC, I guess they wouldn’t make money with a seasonal A380 441 seat version like AKL gets so frequency is the best option.

NZ will use the code 2 789 with the same schedule as AKL-SIN so an easy swap CHC-SIN-AKL to rotate the frames.

Will SQ push the CHC departure back as they did with AKL? To allow shorter European connections? Or leave it as is to allow more connections? Granted AKL has 3 daily services NZ/SQ.
 
torin
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:56 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Sylus wrote:

I too have heard rumblings about something like that for CHC, particularly from a US carrier. Hopefully something like that happens. Would be cool. And Let's be honest, you probably couldn't get a more ideal aircraft for a CHC-LAX route than the 788.

I've heard NZ is actually losing market share at CHC, on long-haul connections - that is to say, the growth in in-bound long-haul travel to CHC is coming via Australia, and not via AKL. That, to me, would indicate that AA/QF may be happy to leave US - CHC as is, routing via Australia.

It'll be interesting to see if NZ reconsiders CHC - LAX again. We will soon see NZ's 787-9's doing CHC - SIN, in addition to CHC - PER, so the scope for tying in a rotation to LAX may increase? Or, alternatively, we may see UA use its smaller 787-8 to do LAX or SFO - CHC, in the JV?

Cheers,

C.


I guess QF have grown in CHC by reinstating BNE/MEL service in the last few years, I’m surprised in some way that EK haven’t added DXB-CHC maybe short of 77Ls?

Outside of DFW-AKL to me LAX-CHC is the next most obvious route to NZ.

Personally I’d see UA running a 787 LAX/SFO-CHC over an NZ operated service, I was surprised when NZ announced their own service CHC-SIN.


Havent EK 77L's been de-LR'ed? I thought Id read the thinks that make it an LR (except the engines) were deactivated and cargo capacity increased
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:09 pm

torin wrote:
Havent EK 77L's been de-LR'ed? I thought Id read the thinks that make it an LR (except the engines) were deactivated and cargo capacity increased


Personally im not convinced CHC is quite there yet in terms of a DXB-CHC non-stop. Its a pretty seasonal market and a service like that would pretty much only be catering for European traffic which has other 1-stop options via SIN, CAN, HKG and soon LAX. I've always thought a DXB-WLG-CHC-DXB would be the way to go, combining two half markets (WLG+CHC) with different seasonality (WLG's premium traffic supporting during low season) and overcoming WLG's runway by flying out via CHC. Maybe this will be a B777-8 option when EK gets them in 2022.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:59 pm

a7ala wrote:
torin wrote:
Havent EK 77L's been de-LR'ed? I thought Id read the thinks that make it an LR (except the engines) were deactivated and cargo capacity increased


Personally im not convinced CHC is quite there yet in terms of a DXB-CHC non-stop. Its a pretty seasonal market and a service like that would pretty much only be catering for European traffic which has other 1-stop options via SIN, CAN, HKG and soon LAX. I've always thought a DXB-WLG-CHC-DXB would be the way to go, combining two half markets (WLG+CHC) with different seasonality (WLG's premium traffic supporting during low season) and overcoming WLG's runway by flying out via CHC. Maybe this will be a B777-8 option when EK gets them in 2022.


True and I guess the SYD stop works well with the QF/EK deal, rather than via an Asian port SIN/BKK/KUL, I wonder if a BKK/KUL stopover would work given no one flies there from CHC?

I’d see the AKL-DPS moving to SIN maybe given more year round and premium demand.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:13 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
a7ala wrote:
torin wrote:
Havent EK 77L's been de-LR'ed? I thought Id read the thinks that make it an LR (except the engines) were deactivated and cargo capacity increased


Personally im not convinced CHC is quite there yet in terms of a DXB-CHC non-stop. Its a pretty seasonal market and a service like that would pretty much only be catering for European traffic which has other 1-stop options via SIN, CAN, HKG and soon LAX. I've always thought a DXB-WLG-CHC-DXB would be the way to go, combining two half markets (WLG+CHC) with different seasonality (WLG's premium traffic supporting during low season) and overcoming WLG's runway by flying out via CHC. Maybe this will be a B777-8 option when EK gets them in 2022.


True and I guess the SYD stop works well with the QF/EK deal, rather than via an Asian port SIN/BKK/KUL, I wonder if a BKK/KUL stopover would work given no one flies there from CHC?

I’d see the AKL-DPS moving to SIN maybe given more year round and premium demand.


Rumours were that was the original plan for EK to fly AKL-SIN-DXB but NZ/SQ got wind of it and they suddenly announced the 3rd daily AKL and so EK had to find another stopover (DPS). EK couldnt make it work against NZ/SQ 3/daily. The New Zealand-SIN market just isnt that big.
 
NYKiwi
Posts: 43
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:48 am

I think NZ would want to compete on the potential.CHC - LAX is AA start this. Cant see them just sitting there and now with 787 the have a better aircraft. Just my 2 cents
 
a7ala
Posts: 278
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:58 am

NYKiwi wrote:
I think NZ would want to compete on the potential.CHC - LAX is AA start this. Cant see them just sitting there and now with 787 the have a better aircraft. Just my 2 cents


I doubt it. Unfortunately its a fact of life for a hub and spoke carrier that other airlines will come in over time to your spokes (as they become bigger) and continually erode your hub. Its the price you pay for operating that model but of course there is significant upside from that model as well.

The question is whether there is anything innovative they can do to fend off this erosion. One idea thats been discussed before is extending long haul widebody flights from AKL intl down to WLG and CHC intl providing a thru flight and a business class all the way - this would allow them to continue to operate their hub and spoke but being more competitive in the spoke markets.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:00 am

a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
a7ala wrote:

Personally im not convinced CHC is quite there yet in terms of a DXB-CHC non-stop. Its a pretty seasonal market and a service like that would pretty much only be catering for European traffic which has other 1-stop options via SIN, CAN, HKG and soon LAX. I've always thought a DXB-WLG-CHC-DXB would be the way to go, combining two half markets (WLG+CHC) with different seasonality (WLG's premium traffic supporting during low season) and overcoming WLG's runway by flying out via CHC. Maybe this will be a B777-8 option when EK gets them in 2022.


True and I guess the SYD stop works well with the QF/EK deal, rather than via an Asian port SIN/BKK/KUL, I wonder if a BKK/KUL stopover would work given no one flies there from CHC?

I’d see the AKL-DPS moving to SIN maybe given more year round and premium demand.


Rumours were that was the original plan for EK to fly AKL-SIN-DXB but NZ/SQ got wind of it and they suddenly announced the 3rd daily AKL and so EK had to find another stopover (DPS). EK couldnt make it work against NZ/SQ 3/daily. The New Zealand-SIN market just isnt that big.


Big enough for up to 6 daily flights in peak season,
3x AKL
2x CHC
1x WLG via MEL

That’s probably the largest long haul market ex NZ to a single city by quite a distance, sure it’s a hub but flights spread across AKL/WLG/CHC.

Probably not big enough however for another carrier At this stage.
 
a7ala
Posts: 278
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:05 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

True and I guess the SYD stop works well with the QF/EK deal, rather than via an Asian port SIN/BKK/KUL, I wonder if a BKK/KUL stopover would work given no one flies there from CHC?

I’d see the AKL-DPS moving to SIN maybe given more year round and premium demand.


Rumours were that was the original plan for EK to fly AKL-SIN-DXB but NZ/SQ got wind of it and they suddenly announced the 3rd daily AKL and so EK had to find another stopover (DPS). EK couldnt make it work against NZ/SQ 3/daily. The New Zealand-SIN market just isnt that big.


Big enough for up to 6 daily flights in peak season,
3x AKL
2x CHC
1x WLG via MEL

That’s probably the largest long haul market ex NZ to a single city by quite a distance, sure it’s a hub but flights spread across AKL/WLG/CHC.

Probably not big enough however for another carrier At this stage.


Most of the traffic on the New Zealand-SIN sector is connecting to/from Europe and Asia - very little is actually travelling to/from Singapore (there will be some stopovers of course). Given that, how could EK compete providing no connectivity in SIN to Asia, and becoming two-stop to Europe via DXB. They are finding that out the hard way on DPS.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:13 am

a7ala wrote:
NYKiwi wrote:
I think NZ would want to compete on the potential.CHC - LAX is AA start this. Cant see them just sitting there and now with 787 the have a better aircraft. Just my 2 cents


I doubt it. Unfortunately its a fact of life for a hub and spoke carrier that other airlines will come in over time to your spokes (as they become bigger) and continually erode your hub. Its the price you pay for operating that model but of course there is significant upside from that model as well.

The question is whether there is anything innovative they can do to fend off this erosion. One idea thats been discussed before is extending long haul widebody flights from AKL intl down to WLG and CHC intl providing a thru flight and a business class all the way - this would allow them to continue to operate their hub and spoke but being more competitive in the spoke markets.


I agree I’m not convinced NZ would do anything but they could use UA maybe, they now do SFO-PPT/MEL.

Long haul aircraft to WLG/CHC is an interesting one, remember they had a 733 from AKL international to CHC in the morning and back in the evening for connections. Lasted a while maybe 2-3 years, I thought they might have tried ex WLG aswell.

Long haul frames to WLG/CHC I guess could be said to be like Using them to Australia, would they then need 1 at each end of the day? Depart AKL 0700- 0730 and back then another one in the afternoon returning AKL 1800-1830.

They had a same plane flight number CHC-AKL-LAX for a couple years weekly in the early 2000s on a 744 that did Japan-CHC.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 333
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:22 am

a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
a7ala wrote:

Rumours were that was the original plan for EK to fly AKL-SIN-DXB but NZ/SQ got wind of it and they suddenly announced the 3rd daily AKL and so EK had to find another stopover (DPS). EK couldnt make it work against NZ/SQ 3/daily. The New Zealand-SIN market just isnt that big.


Big enough for up to 6 daily flights in peak season,
3x AKL
2x CHC
1x WLG via MEL

That’s probably the largest long haul market ex NZ to a single city by quite a distance, sure it’s a hub but flights spread across AKL/WLG/CHC.

Probably not big enough however for another carrier At this stage.


Most of the traffic on the New Zealand-SIN sector is connecting to/from Europe and Asia - very little is actually travelling to/from Singapore (there will be some stopovers of course). Given that, how could EK compete providing no connectivity in SIN to Asia, and becoming two-stop to Europe via DXB. They are finding that out the hard way on DPS.


I'd like to see some stats on connectivity.

I would be most surprised if there isn't a large amount of O and D between 2 first world markets. Also, Singapore is one of the world's most visited cities.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:54 am

NTLDaz wrote:
a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Big enough for up to 6 daily flights in peak season,
3x AKL
2x CHC
1x WLG via MEL

That’s probably the largest long haul market ex NZ to a single city by quite a distance, sure it’s a hub but flights spread across AKL/WLG/CHC.

Probably not big enough however for another carrier At this stage.


Most of the traffic on the New Zealand-SIN sector is connecting to/from Europe and Asia - very little is actually travelling to/from Singapore (there will be some stopovers of course). Given that, how could EK compete providing no connectivity in SIN to Asia, and becoming two-stop to Europe via DXB. They are finding that out the hard way on DPS.


I'd like to see some stats on connectivity.

I would be most surprised if there isn't a large amount of O and D between 2 first world markets. Also, Singapore is one of the world's most visited cities.


Some years ago when NZ dropped SIN in 2006 they did so because 95% of traffic was connecting, they have had a JV with SQ since 2014 and went back in early 2015 themselves, I’m unsure of the numbers now but SIN does continue to be a strong hub ex NZ with WLG via MEL and AKL/CHC growing in the number of flights.

SIN is so visited partly because of geography, and it’s a lovely place.
 
a7ala
Posts: 278
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:56 am

NTLDaz wrote:
a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Big enough for up to 6 daily flights in peak season,
3x AKL
2x CHC
1x WLG via MEL

That’s probably the largest long haul market ex NZ to a single city by quite a distance, sure it’s a hub but flights spread across AKL/WLG/CHC.

Probably not big enough however for another carrier At this stage.


Most of the traffic on the New Zealand-SIN sector is connecting to/from Europe and Asia - very little is actually travelling to/from Singapore (there will be some stopovers of course). Given that, how could EK compete providing no connectivity in SIN to Asia, and becoming two-stop to Europe via DXB. They are finding that out the hard way on DPS.


I'd like to see some stats on connectivity.

I would be most surprised if there isn't a large amount of O and D between 2 first world markets. Also, Singapore is one of the world's most visited cities.


From StatsNZ International Travel (YEMarch19):
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-r ... march-2019

Singapore visitor arrivals to New Zealand = 61,622
New Zealand resident arrivals from Singapore = 26,202
Total = 87,824
Times 2 for two directions = 175,648

Capacity New Zealand-SIN = 870,500 seats (including WLG-MEL-SIN)

So around 20% of the New Zealand-SIN capacity is the New Zealand-SIN market. And that will be an overstatement as some of the market will be connecting via Australian airlines.
 
PA515
Posts: 1482
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:23 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
PA515 wrote:
Delivery of Air NZ A320-271N (msn 9207) ZK-NND appears to be about mid October 2019.

https://aibfamily.flights/production-list/A320 has just been updated and ZK-NND is XFW built msn 9207. A320-251N (msn 8939) was delivered from XFW on 03 Jun and is 268 aircraft earlier on the production list. The A320 family production rate is about 65 a month, so 03 Jun plus four and a bit months.

PA515


Think you mean ZK-NNF.


Sorry about that. ZK-NHD is msn 9207. Must not post when tired.

PA515
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 333
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:24 am

a7ala wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
a7ala wrote:

Most of the traffic on the New Zealand-SIN sector is connecting to/from Europe and Asia - very little is actually travelling to/from Singapore (there will be some stopovers of course). Given that, how could EK compete providing no connectivity in SIN to Asia, and becoming two-stop to Europe via DXB. They are finding that out the hard way on DPS.


I'd like to see some stats on connectivity.

I would be most surprised if there isn't a large amount of O and D between 2 first world markets. Also, Singapore is one of the world's most visited cities.


From StatsNZ International Travel (YEMarch19):
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-r ... march-2019

Singapore visitor arrivals to New Zealand = 61,622
New Zealand resident arrivals from Singapore = 26,202
Total = 87,824
Times 2 for two directions = 175,648

Capacity New Zealand-SIN = 870,500 seats (including WLG-MEL-SIN)

So around 20% of the New Zealand-SIN capacity is the New Zealand-SIN market. And that will be an overstatement as some of the market will be connecting via Australian airlines.


Thanks. That really surprises me.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2628
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:54 am

a7ala wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
AA service AKL-DFW is quite likely.

Agree - this has to be the front-runner for any new AA service here. The connections through DFW are growing - like with AA's new DFW - DUB flight, launching this week.

Cheers,

C.


I suspect CHC-LAX with AA is part of the deal to get regulatory approval here in New Zealand for the JV (just as I suspect CX's CHC-HKG seasonal was as well, and the reason why SQ first flew CHC-SIN in the 1980's). If thats the case then its non-negotiable and will happen once the US DoT process is complete - although the delay might mean it wont happen this NW and maybe next.

There have been significant questions raised in the wider tourism industry about the wider benefits of these deals and the lack of growth away from AKL - and the govt seems to be listening.


So why is the government slapping on a new visitor tax of $35 each from July 1? How will that encourage tourism or new long haul services? That's another $140 for a 4-person family from the States, another disincentive on top of distance for their annual 2 weeks vacation.
 
777ER
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Topic Author
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:38 am

aerokiwi wrote:
a7ala wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Agree - this has to be the front-runner for any new AA service here. The connections through DFW are growing - like with AA's new DFW - DUB flight, launching this week.

Cheers,

C.


I suspect CHC-LAX with AA is part of the deal to get regulatory approval here in New Zealand for the JV (just as I suspect CX's CHC-HKG seasonal was as well, and the reason why SQ first flew CHC-SIN in the 1980's). If thats the case then its non-negotiable and will happen once the US DoT process is complete - although the delay might mean it wont happen this NW and maybe next.

There have been significant questions raised in the wider tourism industry about the wider benefits of these deals and the lack of growth away from AKL - and the govt seems to be listening.


So why is the government slapping on a new visitor tax of $35 each from July 1? How will that encourage tourism or new long haul services? That's another $140 for a 4-person family from the States, another disincentive on top of distance for their annual 2 weeks vacation.

Will passengers really notice the slight cost increase when its included in the ticket price? If it was collected at the border then yes it will leave a sour taste but lets be real here, passengers won't notice a slight cost increase. Did passengers notice a slight cost increase when the fuel charges went up? No cause it was included in the ticket price
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With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:03 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
What about AA or QF doing JFK - AKL? NZ/UA beat QF/AA to ORD - Australasia, so maybe QF/AA want to beat NZ/UA to NYC - Australasia?

Cheers,

C.


Other than JFK-TYO I don’t think AA do any long haul ex JFK only 6-8 hrs to Europe, very little chance that they would consider a 17.5 hr flight to AKL, their 789 seats 285 50 more than QF who won’t do long haul from AKL again with their own metal.


Slight correction there, AA don't do JFK-HND or NRT and haven't for some time. They code-share with JL on JL metal.
Plane mad!
 
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QuayWeeAir
Posts: 18
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:14 am

Qantas set to operate the B787 between Sydney and Auckland replacing the A330 services this coming December/January.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6821
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:21 am

QuayWeeAir wrote:
Qantas set to operate the B787 between Sydney and Auckland replacing the A330 services this coming December/January.



Right, either the third frame to be based in SYD not being used yet although more likely between SYD-SFO arriving at 0630 and departing at 1830 or something so a

SYD 0830 AKL 1335
AKL 1500 SYD 1640
 
tu2130
Posts: 40
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:46 am

Hi guys! Just checked AibFamilyFlights and noticed ZK-NHD so October it will be in Air New Zealand heck So guys, how's your winter been going?
Air New Zealand. Proud to fly.
 
User avatar
Birdiey
Posts: 15
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:06 am

Hamilton Airport getting an upgrade:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/113215576/hamilton-airports-multimillion-dollar-upgrade

Hamilton Airport is set for a major revamp with plans for a complete refurbishment.
The multi-million dollar upgrade includes a revamped departure area, new flooring and interior colours, more workspaces with charging units and digital display units showing local history, tourism and events.
Airport chief executive Mark Morgan said more passengers and a strong regional economy are factors behind the project. He declined to give an exact cost of the project while the work is out for tender.
Morgan said the project would be funded directly by the airport company WRAL and would not require any financial support from its five shareholding councils. WRAL is a council-controlled organisation owned by Hamilton City, Otorohanga, Waipa, Waikato and Matamata-Piako District Councils. [More in article]
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:49 am

a7ala wrote:
NYKiwi wrote:
I think NZ would want to compete on the potential.CHC - LAX is AA start this. Cant see them just sitting there and now with 787 the have a better aircraft. Just my 2 cents


I doubt it. Unfortunately its a fact of life for a hub and spoke carrier that other airlines will come in over time to your spokes (as they become bigger) and continually erode your hub. Its the price you pay for operating that model but of course there is significant upside from that model as well.

The question is whether there is anything innovative they can do to fend off this erosion. One idea thats been discussed before is extending long haul widebody flights from AKL intl down to WLG and CHC intl providing a thru flight and a business class all the way - this would allow them to continue to operate their hub and spoke but being more competitive in the spoke markets.

Is an option as there are multiple flights arriving around the same time in the morning or departing in the evening. Between them shouldn’t be too hard to fill a 787 to CHC (I don’t see the justification for WLG though - too short a flight). Could be tied in with relocating aircraft for the likes of PER/SIN etc. Could be a seasonal option over the peak summer months.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
aerokiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:21 pm

777ER wrote:
aerokiwi wrote:
a7ala wrote:

I suspect CHC-LAX with AA is part of the deal to get regulatory approval here in New Zealand for the JV (just as I suspect CX's CHC-HKG seasonal was as well, and the reason why SQ first flew CHC-SIN in the 1980's). If thats the case then its non-negotiable and will happen once the US DoT process is complete - although the delay might mean it wont happen this NW and maybe next.

There have been significant questions raised in the wider tourism industry about the wider benefits of these deals and the lack of growth away from AKL - and the govt seems to be listening.


So why is the government slapping on a new visitor tax of $35 each from July 1? How will that encourage tourism or new long haul services? That's another $140 for a 4-person family from the States, another disincentive on top of distance for their annual 2 weeks vacation.

Will passengers really notice the slight cost increase when its included in the ticket price? If it was collected at the border then yes it will leave a sour taste but lets be real here, passengers won't notice a slight cost increase. Did passengers notice a slight cost increase when the fuel charges went up? No cause it was included in the ticket price


Yeah, I think they will, especially if they are groups of people. And it's that kind of attitude that leads to further increases - they won't notice. These taxes never stop. They start and they get bigger. They never go away. New Zealand, already a high cost, long distance destination, gets ever more expensive. That's hardly the government supporting new air services.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1022
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:23 pm

a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
a7ala wrote:

Personally im not convinced CHC is quite there yet in terms of a DXB-CHC non-stop. Its a pretty seasonal market and a service like that would pretty much only be catering for European traffic which has other 1-stop options via SIN, CAN, HKG and soon LAX. I've always thought a DXB-WLG-CHC-DXB would be the way to go, combining two half markets (WLG+CHC) with different seasonality (WLG's premium traffic supporting during low season) and overcoming WLG's runway by flying out via CHC. Maybe this will be a B777-8 option when EK gets them in 2022.


True and I guess the SYD stop works well with the QF/EK deal, rather than via an Asian port SIN/BKK/KUL, I wonder if a BKK/KUL stopover would work given no one flies there from CHC?

I’d see the AKL-DPS moving to SIN maybe given more year round and premium demand.


Rumours were that was the original plan for EK to fly AKL-SIN-DXB but NZ/SQ got wind of it and they suddenly announced the 3rd daily AKL and so EK had to find another stopover (DPS). EK couldnt make it work against NZ/SQ 3/daily. The New Zealand-SIN market just isnt that big.


Rumour or speculation? EK was to announce AKL-BKK-DXB but had some issues around timings in BKK and switched to DPS. Fact direct from EK itself. It was at a time when TG was performing well and was expected to announce a seasonal AKL-HKT flight, on the back of NZ's 'success' with SGN and DPS.

The NZ/SQ growth was earmarked from the time the alliance was formed just not made publicly aware of for obvious reasons.
 
a7ala
Posts: 278
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:38 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
a7ala wrote:
NYKiwi wrote:
I think NZ would want to compete on the potential.CHC - LAX is AA start this. Cant see them just sitting there and now with 787 the have a better aircraft. Just my 2 cents


I doubt it. Unfortunately its a fact of life for a hub and spoke carrier that other airlines will come in over time to your spokes (as they become bigger) and continually erode your hub. Its the price you pay for operating that model but of course there is significant upside from that model as well.

The question is whether there is anything innovative they can do to fend off this erosion. One idea thats been discussed before is extending long haul widebody flights from AKL intl down to WLG and CHC intl providing a thru flight and a business class all the way - this would allow them to continue to operate their hub and spoke but being more competitive in the spoke markets.

Is an option as there are multiple flights arriving around the same time in the morning or departing in the evening. Between them shouldn’t be too hard to fill a 787 to CHC (I don’t see the justification for WLG though - too short a flight). Could be tied in with relocating aircraft for the likes of PER/SIN etc. Could be a seasonal option over the peak summer months.


I dont think the distance AKL-WLG vs AKL-CHC is particularly material - its only a 15min difference in flight time and both would be relatively short for a widebody. And interestingly there is as much international traffic connecting via AKL to/from WLG as CHC (CHC market is larger overall but most of them use the directs out of CHC). But the real benefit for WLG is offering the premium class product connection to international markets.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1022
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:56 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
I too have heard rumblings about something like that for CHC, particularly from a US carrier. Hopefully something like that happens. Would be cool. And Let's be honest, you probably couldn't get a more ideal aircraft for a CHC-LAX route than the 788.

planemanofnz wrote:
I've heard NZ is actually losing market share at CHC, on long-haul connections - that is to say, the growth in in-bound long-haul travel to CHC is coming via Australia, and not via AKL. That, to me, would indicate that AA/QF may be happy to leave US - CHC as is, routing via Australia.


Losing market share..... perhaps better said as diluted by the Chinese growth? a market foreign carriers are struggling to pick up. For example, look at the number of Chinese seats into Australia in proportion to the number QF offer.

I've not seen any strong evidence of a substantial shift in market share around CHC.

If you're implying, NZ is losing market share on N.A routes to AA/QF/VA/DL who are taking them via Australia then that's incorrect.

planemanofnz wrote:
It'll be interesting to see if NZ reconsiders CHC - LAX again. We will soon see NZ's 787-9's doing CHC - SIN, in addition to CHC - PER, so the scope for tying in a rotation to LAX may increase? Or, alternatively, we may see UA use its smaller 787-8 to do LAX or SFO - CHC, in the JV?.

777ER wrote:
With the QF/AA JV having received its interim approval by the USDOT.. I think an AA service AKL-DFW is quite likely.

ZK-NBT wrote:
Not AKL-DFW? How about something left field like CHC-LAX?


Regarding CHC and North America. I agree the 787 is a well-suited aircraft for this route. I agree there is a market here.

I'm also pleased with the QF/AA approval and I hope this offers broader competition and options between NZ and the US..

Are we just back to drawing lines on a map though?
-Why CHC/LAX when NZ has so many CHC-AKL sectors and can also 'flex in' CHC-AKL widebody extension and/or reopen this sector with ease.
- How is SYD-DFW working for QF and does AA/QF want to or need to expand capacity between them and if so why AKL and not BNE? Would it be MEL-AKL-DFW? While on the surface AKL-DFW looks obvious, is it? What do both carriers want to achieve, there seems to be an assumption that they will default to connecting AA's hub with AKL for some reason.
- AKL-MIA, why?

Questions should be looked at to understand how important NZ is to both QF and AA and/or is this a midpoint transfer to open new markets while also strengthening NZ.

- Could we see AKL-LAX daily year round with a 772 or 77W?
- Would they follow the trend of connecting Australasia and East Coast USA, if so would they take on NZ in Chicago, a massive AA hub? could they beat NZ to NYC or perhaps look at WAS and leave NYC for project sunrise in a few years when those aircraft come online.

I go back to a point I raised a few months back, how interested in the NZ market is QF? Would opening or expanding an AKL/CHC-LAX/SFO/DFW sector offer their Australian market anything when they've got this covered nicely? and how much desire is there to do this for the NZ market? If you're starting to wonder this, perhaps starting to think how could AKL/CHC be used to support or supplement the QF and AA primary bases?

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