Indian Aviation Thread - June 2019

avier · Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:26 am

SATexan wrote:

Bengaluru is completely sold out on the 7th and 8th of June even as there is availability to Mumbai.
Lufthansa

            
               BLR              BOM
JFK            6778            6682
SFO            6675            6648
ORD           6623            6481
IAD            6576            6493

That doesn't reflect the reality of things like the way you make it seem.
You haven't even considered other factors like BOM having way more options/seats on int'l markets which would mean pax have other ways to get to those above mentioned cities you have used as a reference. Hence, BOM would have seats available at last minute while BLR wouldn't, but that doesn't prove the latter has more demand.
That logic would be fair if the seat count or frequencies to Int'l markets were almost equal out of the two airports, which it's clearly not.
BA has 18 weekly flights from LHR to BOM , just 7 weekly to BLR.
LH has from BOM a total 14 weekly to Germany (FRA+MUC) plus Swiss 7 weekly, so total 21 weekly from LH group. BLR just 7 weekly from LH group.
14 weekly non-stop services from BOM-EWR on Star Alliance carriers (AI+UA). Whereas BLR has none, and no non-stops even to USA. AC operates from YYZ on and off to BOM too.
SQ has 21 weekly (all WB's including an A380) , CX 14 weekly (77W's) , EK 35 weekly (including an A380) and such, while BLR receives far fewer seats from those carriers. The list of such carriers goes on from BOM , many of which don't even serve BLR.
So last minute availability of seats out of a city or the price is not a defining factor to show which airport's more popular or having more demand. If last minute fares on flights (or its availablity thereof) from Rajkot to Amreeka cost more than BOM to Amreeka, we can't apply your flawed logic of RAJ having more demand than BOM for US flights. It's a factor of number of available seats out of the city. Rajkot has barely a single daily to BOM/DEL each, so it would cost more at the last moment obviously because seats would be booked out on such limited inventory.
BLR still has comparatively has far fewer int'l seats than the big two Indian airports , and is even lesser than MAA as per the last data. Heck, till a year back or so, even COK had more int'l seats than BLR. So your data goes on to prove nothing.
Also, if BLR airport authorities go on harping about more premium demand at their airport than any other Indian airport, well, thats their PR job to woo more airlines. But the airlines are not fools, they have access to all the valuable pax data and know more about each city's potential than what BLR airport authorities claim.

binayak · Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:17 am

SATexan wrote:
devmapper wrote:
The fact that there isn't one just goes to show that BLR isn't as high-yielding as some people think it is.

There are airport data shared by the BLR airport officials themselves that are buried somewhere in these Indian aviation threads. Additionally, I have presented two sets of data in the posts above. You can interpret them however you want and draw your own conclusions.

I agree that BLR is definitely one of the highest yielding airport in India. However the way you are comparing with BOM is wrong because you have to take into consideration the capacity deployed in both the cities. In case of LH, capacity is quite near but there is a huge difference in capacity to BOM and BLR by BA, EK.

Second of all, checking NYC to BOM one stop J fares is not a proper way to compare as since there's a non stop in that route, one stops are bound to be cheaper.

To conclude, ULH from BLR to USA is difficult because :
1. Despite excellent volumes of J traffic, there are less people to fill up the back of the plane. However BLR cannot be a connection point for most Indian cities thus domestic feed will be less.
2. As the other poster mentioned, what can be high yielding for one stop , may not be high yielding for non stop.

unnayan · Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:29 am

avier wrote:
SATexan wrote:
Bengaluru is completely sold out on the 7th and 8th of June even as there is availability to Mumbai.
Lufthansa
Code: Select all
            
               BLR              BOM
JFK            6778            6682
SFO            6675            6648
ORD           6623            6481
IAD            6576            6493
That doesn't reflect the reality of things like the way you make it seem.
You haven't even considered other factors like BOM having way more options/seats on int'l markets which would mean pax have other ways to get to those above mentioned cities you have used as a reference. Hence, BOM would have seats available at last minute while BLR wouldn't, but that doesn't prove the latter has more demand.
That logic would be fair if the seat count or frequencies to Int'l markets were almost equal out of the two airports, which it's clearly not.
BA has 18 weekly flights from LHR to BOM , just 7 weekly to BLR.
LH has from BOM a total 14 weekly to Germany (FRA+MUC) plus Swiss 7 weekly, so total 21 weekly from LH group. BLR just 7 weekly from LH group.
14 weekly non-stop services from BOM-EWR on Star Alliance carriers (AI+UA). Whereas BLR has none, and no non-stops even to USA. AC operates from YYZ on and off to BOM too.
SQ has 21 weekly (all WB's including an A380) , CX 14 weekly (77W's) , EK 35 weekly (including an A380) and such, while BLR receives far fewer seats from those carriers. The list of such carriers goes on from BOM , many of which don't even serve BLR.
So last minute availability of seats out of a city or the price is not a defining factor to show which airport's more popular or having more demand. If last minute fares on flights (or its availablity thereof) from Rajkot to Amreeka cost more than BOM to Amreeka, we can't apply your flawed logic of RAJ having more demand than BOM for US flights. It's a factor of number of available seats out of the city. Rajkot has barely a single daily to BOM/DEL each, so it would cost more at the last moment obviously because seats would be booked out on such limited inventory.
BLR still has comparatively has far fewer int'l seats than the big two Indian airports , and is even lesser than MAA as per the last data. Heck, till a year back or so, even COK had more int'l seats than BLR. So your data goes on to prove nothing.
Also, if BLR airport authorities go on harping about more premium demand at their airport than any other Indian airport, well, thats their PR job to woo more airlines. But the airlines are not fools, they have access to all the valuable pax data and know more about each city's potential than what BLR airport authorities claim.

The most logical explanation I have seen on a.net in long time.. well written

anshabhi · Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:06 am

Kinda cool - Vistara helps man in proposing to a girl and she accepted
https://twitter.com/airvistara/status/1 ... 3145155588

I am expecting those 2 people already had cordial relations with each other. If they were strangers, :roll:

....

dtw2hyd · Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:05 pm

SATexan wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Friday outbound (and Friday return) for business travel in J. Is that common in India? No US corp would pay for an extra night in a hotel with J and no US employee would spend the weekend on business travel.

Fair point. Though I personally like to spend the Sunday resting before starting work on Monday.

I re-ran the numbers for one-way Business class with the shortest connection times and both segments being on the same airline. I tried pricing out for two dates. The dates being June 15th (Saturday) / June 16th (Sunday)

Not questioning or debating your anecdotal data sample, but I can hazard a guess about one thing. After BA announced 772 to 789 equipment swap, KIAL management panicked, hyperventilated, rolled on the floor and presented BA with terabytes of data on premium demand until BA agreed to give them an A350.

hohd · Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:03 pm

BLR total demand is definitely much less including in J when compared to BOM and DEL, but higher than MAA to Europe/USA. However having flown on BOM-FRA flight many times, I found that the flight to be half empty many times especially mid week.

binayak · Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:13 pm

hohd wrote:
BLR total demand is definitely much less including in J when compared to BOM and DEL, but higher than MAA to Europe/USA. However having flown on BOM-FRA flight many times, I found that the flight to be half empty many times especially mid week.

Yes.
Now that I can see AI placing it's code on LH trans atlantic flight, many might have shifted to AI FRA BOM flight as that one has better timings and AI 788 product is better than LH 744 IMO.

avier · Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:14 pm

IndiGo will be starting Mumbai- Dammam and will be adding second daily frequency on Mumbai-Doha, with one of the two flights also being upgauged to an A321Neo along with BOM/DEL-AUH and DEL-DOH receiving this new larger variant plying the routes.
Interesting how 6E is using the limited bilateral's to DOH to increase frequency/capacity from the major metros instead of the smaller towns, unlike what other users on here wished for regarding their feeding the global hubs strategy. Afterall, they will go where the market demand is.
Also a new twice daily flight on Chennai- Kuala Lumpur.

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/indigo-to-start-flights-on-mumbai-dammam-and-chennai-kuala-lumpur-routes-from-july/articleshow/69649856.cms

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/284697/indigo-expands-a321neo-middle-east-network-from-june-2019/

sabby · Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:16 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
SATexan wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Friday outbound (and Friday return) for business travel in J. Is that common in India? No US corp would pay for an extra night in a hotel with J and no US employee would spend the weekend on business travel.

Fair point. Though I personally like to spend the Sunday resting before starting work on Monday.

I re-ran the numbers for one-way Business class with the shortest connection times and both segments being on the same airline. I tried pricing out for two dates. The dates being June 15th (Saturday) / June 16th (Sunday)

Not questioning or debating your anecdotal data sample, but I can hazard a guess about one thing. After BA announced 772 to 789 equipment swap, KIAL management panicked, hyperventilated, rolled on the floor and presented BA with terabytes of data on premium demand until BA agreed to give them an A350.

BA 789s have more premium seats (including 8 F, more W) than the code 2 77E they usually send to BLR. Their A35K will also have more J seats (albeit no F) and more W seats. Airports can roll as much as they want, Airlines (private) run on business cases, not on charity.

dtw2hyd · Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:07 pm

sabby wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
SATexan wrote:
Fair point. Though I personally like to spend the Sunday resting before starting work on Monday.

I re-ran the numbers for one-way Business class with the shortest connection times and both segments being on the same airline. I tried pricing out for two dates. The dates being June 15th (Saturday) / June 16th (Sunday)

Not questioning or debating your anecdotal data sample, but I can hazard a guess about one thing. After BA announced 772 to 789 equipment swap, KIAL management panicked, hyperventilated, rolled on the floor and presented BA with terabytes of data on premium demand until BA agreed to give them an A350.

BA 789s have more premium seats (including 8 F, more W) than the code 2 77E they usually send to BLR. Their A35K will also have more J seats (albeit no F) and more W seats. Airports can roll as much as they want, Airlines (private) run on business cases, not on charity.

789 is a significant quality upgrade, but for a numbers run airport, losing 76Y creates havoc on their growth sprout data model.

789 +F8 +J8 +W15 -Y76
351 0 +J8 +W32 +Y16

For a premium heavy airport like BLR, 789 is a better option than 351. Isn't it.

aarbee · Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:10 pm

devmapper wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
You cannot get LH or AF/KL unions to agree to operate FRA-AMD or CDG/AMS-AMD even there is enough connecting traffic. They are worst than AI unions. All the load factor/yield story is to cover the actual issues.

why would the unions care? If the route is profitable, why would the unions care if they have to spend a day in a hotel in a large Indian city?

That's what I was pondering over too. Why would LF, AF, KL union have a say in what city there is a business case to fly to?

-R

aarbee · Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:14 pm

anshabhi wrote:
Kinda cool - Vistara helps man in proposing to a girl and she accepted
https://twitter.com/airvistara/status/1 ... 3145155588

I am expecting those 2 people already had cordial relations with each other. If they were strangers, ....

Leads to a dead page.

unrave · Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:19 pm

devmapper wrote:

why would the unions care? If the route is profitable, why would the unions care if they have to spend a day in a hotel in a large Indian city?

Those are just alternative facts from a parallel universe. Best avoided.

TEMPO · Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:30 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
sabby wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Not questioning or debating your anecdotal data sample, but I can hazard a guess about one thing. After BA announced 772 to 789 equipment swap, KIAL management panicked, hyperventilated, rolled on the floor and presented BA with terabytes of data on premium demand until BA agreed to give them an A350.

BA 789s have more premium seats (including 8 F, more W) than the code 2 77E they usually send to BLR. Their A35K will also have more J seats (albeit no F) and more W seats. Airports can roll as much as they want, Airlines (private) run on business cases, not on charity.

789 is a significant quality upgrade, but for a numbers run airport, losing 76Y creates havoc on their growth sprout data model.

789 +F8 +J8 +W15 -Y76
351 0 +J8 +W32 +Y16

For a premium heavy airport like BLR, 789 is a better option than 351. Isn't it.

This doesn’t seem right. From Seatguru, British Airways and news websites:
++++++++++
The British Airways Airbus A350 holds 331 passengers. This is split across 56 business suites in a 1-2-1 configuration, 56 premium economy seats in a 2-4-2 layout, and 219 economy seats in a 3-3-3 arrangement.

The Boeing 787-9 aircraft seats 216 and features 8 First Class open suites, 42 flat bed Club World seats, 39 World Traveller Plus seats, and 127 standard Economy Seats.

The Boeing 777-200 3-class aircraft seats 275, with 48 Club World seats, 24 World Traveller Plus and 203 World Traveller seats.
++++++++++

binayak · Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:41 pm

aarbee wrote:
devmapper wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
You cannot get LH or AF/KL unions to agree to operate FRA-AMD or CDG/AMS-AMD even there is enough connecting traffic. They are worst than AI unions. All the load factor/yield story is to cover the actual issues.

why would the unions care? If the route is profitable, why would the unions care if they have to spend a day in a hotel in a large Indian city?

That's what I was pondering over too. Why would LF, AF, KL union have a say in what city there is a business case to fly to?

-R

Unfortunately for them, India is a place they don't want to fly. Union mgmt negotiations are the single biggest reason why EU legacies couldn't expand in India in the past.
Think about this : DL has had AF and KL to fly India EU and provide Indian feed to ST hubs in EU. Still why did they need 9W ? LH has been talking about restarting HYD / CCU for couple of years but no solid action so far. Why?

sabby · Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:54 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
sabby wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Not questioning or debating your anecdotal data sample, but I can hazard a guess about one thing. After BA announced 772 to 789 equipment swap, KIAL management panicked, hyperventilated, rolled on the floor and presented BA with terabytes of data on premium demand until BA agreed to give them an A350.

BA 789s have more premium seats (including 8 F, more W) than the code 2 77E they usually send to BLR. Their A35K will also have more J seats (albeit no F) and more W seats. Airports can roll as much as they want, Airlines (private) run on business cases, not on charity.

789 is a significant quality upgrade, but for a numbers run airport, losing 76Y creates havoc on their growth sprout data model.

789 +F8 +J8 +W15 -Y76
351 0 +J8 +W32 +Y16

For a premium heavy airport like BLR, 789 is a better option than 351. Isn't it.

No one claimed BLR is premium heavy, just that enough premium demand is there for non-stop ultra long hauls when the capable and economically feasible planes are available. Also, you are not using the code 2 77E in your calculation, the other user posted the correct configuration for that. And btw, A35K will have the latest J seats of BA fleet, they could have easily used that plane for other routes if they didn't want to compete in this route. AI added a non-stop LHR-BLR, so demand is definitely there. The switch from 77E to 789 is probably due to refitting of the 77E and it is only a few months till the A35K comes up.
I honestly do not understand your resentment towards BLR, it isn't BOM or DEL but it is the fastest growing and with 2nd runway and new terminal, the growth should keep on. I think the fact that BLR is served by so many diverse carriers (for it's int'l traffic) is a boon to the aviation fans and customers can choose from a wide array of hard and soft products as opposed to being pigeonholed by a hub carrier.

sabby · Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:02 pm

binayak wrote:
aarbee wrote:
devmapper wrote:

why would the unions care? If the route is profitable, why would the unions care if they have to spend a day in a hotel in a large Indian city?

That's what I was pondering over too. Why would LF, AF, KL union have a say in what city there is a business case to fly to?

-R

Unfortunately for them, India is a place they don't want to fly. Union mgmt negotiations are the single biggest reason why EU legacies couldn't expand in India in the past.
Think about this : DL has had AF and KL to fly India EU and provide Indian feed to ST hubs in EU. Still why did they need 9W ? LH has been talking about restarting HYD / CCU for couple of years but no solid action so far. Why?

9W operated daily flights to ST hubs from BOM, DEL, BLR and MAA. Apart from the single MAA daily, which wasn't having good load and yield as I recall, the other airports are already served by AF/KL/VS. BA and LH serve all those plus LH serve (stopped after PrivatAir went belly up) PNQ and BA serve MAA and HYD. LH had exhausted their bilateral limits and both CCU&HYD probably do not have enough premium demand yet for them to restart.

anshabhi · Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:19 pm

aarbee wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
Kinda cool - Vistara helps man in proposing to a girl and she accepted
https://twitter.com/airvistara/status/1 ... 3145155588

I am expecting those 2 people already had cordial relations with each other. If they were strangers, ....

Leads to a dead page.

The tweet has been deleted probably

dtw2hyd · Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:56 pm

sabby wrote:
...
I honestly do not understand your resentment towards BLR..

I don't have any resentment toward BLR or Bangalore. Kannadigas are the nicest people in entire South India and Bangalore was the most beautiful city in India when I lived there.

I do have resentment towards entities which forget their core business and turn themselves into a Data Analytics and/or PR freakshows. EK, 6E, Tesla(non-av) are few examples.

No one can deny BLR's achievement in their growth. Dumping data on the public is not going to make them any better, just annoying.

They could have courted an FSC to become a domestic hub helping international FSCs, that is a lost opportunity.

dtw2hyd · Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:48 pm

TEMPO wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
sabby wrote:

BA 789s have more premium seats (including 8 F, more W) than the code 2 77E they usually send to BLR. Their A35K will also have more J seats (albeit no F) and more W seats. Airports can roll as much as they want, Airlines (private) run on business cases, not on charity.

789 is a significant quality upgrade, but for a numbers run airport, losing 76Y creates havoc on their growth sprout data model.

789 +F8 +J8 +W15 -Y76
351 0 +J8 +W32 +Y16

For a premium heavy airport like BLR, 789 is a better option than 351. Isn't it.

This doesn’t seem right. From Seatguru, British Airways and news websites:
++++++++++
The British Airways Airbus A350 holds 331 passengers. This is split across 56 business suites in a 1-2-1 configuration, 56 premium economy seats in a 2-4-2 layout, and 219 economy seats in a 3-3-3 arrangement.

The Boeing 787-9 aircraft seats 216 and features 8 First Class open suites, 42 flat bed Club World seats, 39 World Traveller Plus seats, and 127 standard Economy Seats.

The Boeing 777-200 3-class aircraft seats 275, with 48 Club World seats, 24 World Traveller Plus and 203 World Traveller seats.
++++++++++

Those are delta numbers. 772v789 and 772v351

772-F0C48W24Y203
789-F8C42W39Y127
351-F0C56W56Y219

Keeping the new J on 351 aside, 789 is better suited for high yield premium destinations. F8 should bring a lot more revenue than C14+W17. Am I wrong?

edealinfo · Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:17 pm

Indigo is expected to record $400 to $500 million in profits this year

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 43003.html

unrave · Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:16 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
I do have resentment towards entities which forget their core business and turn themselves into a Data Analytics and/or PR freakshows. EK, 6E, Tesla(non-av) are few examples.

EK and 6E are highly successful airlines, unlike 9W and AI

Dumping data on the public is not going to make them any better, just annoying.

-Participate in a aviation forum
-Complain about people sharing data about airports :roll:

They could have courted an FSC to become a domestic hub helping international FSCs, that is a lost opportunity.

FSCs are of course available dime a dozen in India

unrave · Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:18 pm

https://twitter.com/sandeeprrao1991/sta ... 1066134529

After 1 month IndiGo has restarted Bengaluru-Phuket flight, this time with a much better timings. Arriving at Phuket around noon, which looks perfect IMHO. Bookings have reopened.

lightsaber · Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:52 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Indigo is expected to record $400 to $500 million in profits this year

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 43003.html

From your link:
"Overall, the domestic traffic growth will be "muted", with full-year traffic growth expected to be below five per cent year-on-year, it said."

My take is yields will remain good in FY 2019.

We know the highly elevated yield will drop. But with 20% annual demand growth, yield will be excellent for those airlines with disciplined cost control. I expect Indigo, SpiceJet, and GoAir to thrive in FY 2019. The others need more discipline.

I'm highly curious as to how much of Indigo's and SpiceJet's growth will be international. That is where the real profit and risk is today.

Lightsaber

lightsaber · Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:56 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
TEMPO wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

789 is a significant quality upgrade, but for a numbers run airport, losing 76Y creates havoc on their growth sprout data model.

789 +F8 +J8 +W15 -Y76
351 0 +J8 +W32 +Y16

For a premium heavy airport like BLR, 789 is a better option than 351. Isn't it.

This doesn’t seem right. From Seatguru, British Airways and news websites:
++++++++++
The British Airways Airbus A350 holds 331 passengers. This is split across 56 business suites in a 1-2-1 configuration, 56 premium economy seats in a 2-4-2 layout, and 219 economy seats in a 3-3-3 arrangement.

The Boeing 787-9 aircraft seats 216 and features 8 First Class open suites, 42 flat bed Club World seats, 39 World Traveller Plus seats, and 127 standard Economy Seats.

The Boeing 777-200 3-class aircraft seats 275, with 48 Club World seats, 24 World Traveller Plus and 203 World Traveller seats.
++++++++++

Those are delta numbers. 772v789 and 772v351

772-F0C48W24Y203
789-F8C42W39Y127
351-F0C56W56Y219

Keeping the new J on 351 aside, 789 is better suited for high yield premium destinations. F8 should bring a lot more revenue than C14+W17. Am I wrong?

Last I looked, for BA 70% of the traffic was connecting (reduced yield). That is too high. Now, my numbers are at least 2 years old, but unless growth has been higher than I expected, I believe a reduction in capacity is appropriate to stop chasing market share and instead go for profits.

The reality is, BLR needs fragmentation and that means NMA. Not for this LHR-BLR flight, but to reduce connections to grow business.

Lightsaber

sabby · Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:50 pm

lightsaber wrote:

The reality is, BLR needs fragmentation and that means NMA. Not for this LHR-BLR flight, but to reduce connections to grow business.

Lightsaber

I'd argue that NMA wouldn't be much useful for BLR. Most of the high demand destinations are either within 2000nm or further than 4200nm. So, right out of NMA's optimization range. For medium/long haul routes, the A330/B787/A350 family seem more suitable.

lightsaber · Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:14 pm

sabby wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

The reality is, BLR needs fragmentation and that means NMA. Not for this LHR-BLR flight, but to reduce connections to grow business.

Lightsaber

I'd argue that NMA wouldn't be much useful for BLR. Most of the high demand destinations are either within 2000nm or further than 4200nm. So, right out of NMA's optimization range. For medium/long haul routes, the A330/B787/A350 family seem more suitable.

4200nm brings in all of China, most of Asia, CDG and MUC (not FRA):

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=4209nm%40blr

So I disagree.

Lightsaber

sabby · Fri Jun 07, 2019 6:16 pm

lightsaber wrote:
sabby wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

The reality is, BLR needs fragmentation and that means NMA. Not for this LHR-BLR flight, but to reduce connections to grow business.

Lightsaber

I'd argue that NMA wouldn't be much useful for BLR. Most of the high demand destinations are either within 2000nm or further than 4200nm. So, right out of NMA's optimization range. For medium/long haul routes, the A330/B787/A350 family seem more suitable.

4200nm brings in all of China, most of Asia, CDG and MUC (not FRA):

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=4209nm%40blr

So I disagree.

Lightsaber

BLR-China traffic is negligible and chinese bilateral are exhausted. Almost all destinations in Asia are <2000nm so narrow body range. BLR to other Asian hubs demand are met by 777/A350. The only case for NMA is BLR-ICN/NRT - none of which are served today so demand is not that high. JAL will start NRT service using 788 from Summer 2020. CDG/MUC may be within 4200nm but those are at extreme range of speculated NMA and belly cargo as well as pax demand warrant more capable frames. AF serve with A330, Not sure of O&D demand between BLR-MUC, other EU gateway are routed through FRA by LH and they use 748.

edealinfo · Fri Jun 07, 2019 6:51 pm

lightsaber wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Indigo is expected to record $400 to $500 million in profits this year

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 43003.html

From your link:
"Overall, the domestic traffic growth will be "muted", with full-year traffic growth expected to be below five per cent year-on-year, it said."

My take is yields will remain good in FY 2019.

We know the highly elevated yield will drop. But with 20% annual demand growth, yield will be excellent for those airlines with disciplined cost control. I expect Indigo, SpiceJet, and GoAir to thrive in FY 2019. The others need more discipline.

I'm highly curious as to how much of Indigo's and SpiceJet's growth will be international. That is where the real profit and risk is today.

Lightsaber

What do you mean by “discipline” and why doesn’t Air Asia and Vistara have it?

devmapper · Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:38 pm

binayak wrote:
aarbee wrote:
That's what I was pondering over too. Why would LF, AF, KL union have a say in what city there is a business case to fly to?

-R

Unfortunately for them, India is a place they don't want to fly. Union mgmt negotiations are the single biggest reason why EU legacies couldn't expand in India in the past.
Think about this : DL has had AF and KL to fly India EU and provide Indian feed to ST hubs in EU. Still why did they need 9W ? LH has been talking about restarting HYD / CCU for couple of years but no solid action so far. Why?

I do not know what prevents LH from starting HYD, but, speaking as a former resident and VFR passenger, CCU is extremely low yield, without any significant biz connections to EU. Most passengers on FRA-CCU were connecting to NA. The moment EK started double dailies to CCU, the load factors on the FRA-CCU flight dropped like a rock. Of course, LH is not blameless, they did not have any frames that could fly the route profitably. The 333 operated on the route had 8F/42J.

Without having a background into why the EU3 unions don't like flying into secondary cities in India, I think it would be useful for respective state governments to start thinking about ways to make these cities attractive for biz opportunities like BLR has managed to, instead of "demanding" airlines start flights. I remember there were news stories about how a chief minister "demanded" that AI fly non-stop from CCU to LHR, like AI doesn't already lose money hand over fist.

On a completely different note, I have looked at the water woes that plague cities like MAA, BLR and HYD, and wonder what CCU could have been with plentiful water and electricity, local cheap fresh vegetables and fruits and other natural advantages, only if the political leadership wasn't so self-destructive. I know a lot of the talent actually lives and works out of BLR now (6E alone has 8 daily non-stops each way between BLR and CCU).

devmapper · Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:44 pm

unrave wrote:
devmapper wrote:

why would the unions care? If the route is profitable, why would the unions care if they have to spend a day in a hotel in a large Indian city?

Those are just alternative facts from a parallel universe. Best avoided.

well, other commenters indicate there might be a grain of truth to that statement, so maybe I need to revisit my assertion that well-run airlines don't use emotion to make decisions.

devmapper · Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:49 pm

avier wrote:
BLR still has comparatively has far fewer int'l seats than the big two Indian airports , and is even lesser than MAA as per the last data. Heck, till a year back or so, even COK had more int'l seats than BLR. So your data goes on to prove nothing.
Also, if BLR airport authorities go on harping about more premium demand at their airport than any other Indian airport, well, thats their PR job to woo more airlines. But the airlines are not fools, they have access to all the valuable pax data and know more about each city's potential than what BLR airport authorities claim.

That is a much more logical and well-reasoned answer that I could have ever hoped to construct myself.

binayak wrote:
2. As the other poster mentioned, what can be high yielding for one stop , may not be high yielding for non stop.

Thanks for reinforcing my point.

edealinfo · Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:11 pm

http://www.newindianexpress.com/busines ... 87232.html

Excellent article in the link above that also provides the following information:

1. Additional aircraft to be added to the fleet between now and the end of July:
SpiceJet: 20
Indigo: 18
Go Air: 10
Vistara: 10

2. More of Jet's international routes will be awarded to the above 4 carriers.

3. So Far, of Jet's international allocation, Air India was awarded 5,700 seats to Dubai, 5,000 to London and 4,600 to Qatar but Air India has been slow in using that quota.

4. Most private carriers want traffic rights for short-haul destinations, namely, Dubai, Doha, Dhaka, Singapore and Bangkok.

Why has no carrier bid for Hong Kong????????????

edealinfo · Sat Jun 08, 2019 4:04 pm

Air Inida is now offering 50% discount on is newly launched India to Dubai flights. They got these flights by taking over Jet's slots. You would think they would be charging the highest prices because of the demand but they are heavily discounting. Go figure!

https://www.ndtv.com/business/air-india ... le-2050148

unrave · Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:23 am

Some BLR stats

ameya · Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:53 am

How SpiceJet became the biggest beneficiary of the slots vacated by Jet Airways

In a recent annual general meeting, airline group International Air Transport Association (IATA) unanimously passed a resolution urging governments to adhere to global slot allocation guidelines and it has come at a time when the rules have been making news in India.

IATA has been on the forefront for demanding a single slot coordinator in the country. India is one of the handful of countries that do not follow the international slot allocation timelines for its domestic schedule, opting for its own calendar and process instead. As Jet Airways suspended operations, nearly 750 slots were left vacant at airports, which were being distributed across airlines by a committee which included the regulator (DGCA), representatives of private airport operators and those of state-run Airports Authority of India.

However, the committee came up with a set of rules that were not in sync with the World Slot Guidelines (WSG). There were reasons.

avier · Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:38 pm

IndiGo announces Kolkata - Hong Kong from August 21.

SG's new launches and additional flights on exisiting sectors using Q400's :
BLR- Mangalore (x2) /Gwalior/ Belagavi
CCU- Dibrugarh/ Gwalior
GAU- Dibrugarh/ Dhaka ( 1st int'l UDAN flight)

Vistara new flights from BOM using Jet slots:
BOM - Chennai (x3) / Kolkata (x2)/ Varanasi/ Goa .
All these new flights using former 9W 737's .

avier · Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:44 pm

Air India could post over ₹7,600 crore loss in 2018-19, highest so far

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/air-india-could-post-over-rs-7-600-crore-loss-in-2018-19-highest-so-far-1560179371682.html

Their single annual loss alone is equal to 9Ws entire loan related debts owed to banks which caused it to shut shop. Unfair practices by the govt. indeed.

edealinfo · Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:53 pm

avier wrote:
Air India could post over ₹7,600 crore loss in 2018-19, highest so far

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/air-india-could-post-over-rs-7-600-crore-loss-in-2018-19-highest-so-far-1560179371682.html

Their single annual loss alone is equal to 9Ws entire loan related debts owed to banks which caused it to shut shop. Unfair practices by the govt. indeed.

IF NG has to be prosecuted for Jet’s losses (leading to its failure), logically shouldn’t the top boss or bosses at Air India and the Government need to get the same treatment? Or, in India, is “equality” the same as in socialist countries, wherein equal treatment under the law for everybody is only on paper?

anshabhi · Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:31 pm

United Newark to Mumbai diverted to Delhi because of severe weather at BOM.

https://mobile.twitter.com/aneeshp/stat ... 5880671232

Surprised to see they carry so much extra fuel

avier wrote:
Air India could post over ₹7,600 crore loss in 2018-19, highest so far

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/air-india-could-post-over-rs-7-600-crore-loss-in-2018-19-highest-so-far-1560179371682.html

Their single annual loss alone is equal to 9Ws entire loan related debts owed to banks which caused it to shut shop. Unfair practices by the govt. indeed.

Ohhh wait CAPA predicted AI will be net profitable this fiscal for the first time in 12 years

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 201_1.html

avier · Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:00 pm

anshabhi wrote:
avier wrote:
Air India could post over ₹7,600 crore loss in 2018-19, highest so far

Ohhh wait CAPA predicted AI will be net profitable this fiscal for the first time in 12 years

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 201_1.html

CAPA is predicting that for this fiscal as in FY 2019-2020, which is obviously after Jet shut down.
The one stating the huge loss is for 2018-2019, one concluded.

Now if you even understand or comprehend fiscal year calculations.

Either which ways, CAPA prediction will still be wrong for AI, even for current fiscal.

edealinfo · Tue Jun 11, 2019 3:01 am

avier wrote:
IndiGo announces Kolkata - Hong Kong from August 21.

Vistara new flights from BOM using Jet slots:
BOM - Chennai (x3) / Kolkata (x2)/ Varanasi/ Goa .
All these new flights using former 9W 737's .

They brought in 5 new planes (4 737s and 1 A320 neo). The new routes don't seem too much to warrant 5 planes. Did they not also increase flights for existing routes?

unrave · Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:32 am

edealinfo wrote:

They brought in 5 new planes (4 737s and 1 A320 neo). The new routes don't seem too much to warrant 5 planes. Did they not also increase flights for existing routes?

You should follow route announcements more closely.

avier · Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:22 am

SQ will be introducing the new "Suites" cabin product A380 on Singapore- Mumbai route from Sep '19. These are private first class suites and is the new product on their reconfigured A380's. This along with their existing frequency to BOM receiving the premium heavy A350's. DEL receives A380 and 787-10 and BLR/CCU the regional config. A350's.

https://www.traveltrendstoday.in/news/aviation/item/7209-singapore-airlines-to-launch-reconfigured-a380-on-mumbai-route
https://livefromalounge.boardingarea.com/2019/06/02/airbus-a380-singapore-airlines-india/

avier · Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:26 am

edealinfo wrote:
They brought in 5 new planes (4 737s and 1 A320 neo). The new routes don't seem too much to warrant 5 planes. Did they not also increase flights for existing routes?

They had first started using 737's out of DEL to ATQ/GAU/IXC(x2).The A320 towards restoring some flights they pulled out when they first jumped for Jets slots.

sabby · Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:10 am

avier wrote:
SQ will be introducing the new "Suites" cabin product A380 on Singapore- Mumbai route from Sep '19. These are private first class suites and is the new product on their reconfigured A380's. This along with their existing frequency to BOM receiving the premium heavy A350's. DEL receives A380 and 787-10 and BLR/CCU the regional config. A350's.

https://www.traveltrendstoday.in/news/aviation/item/7209-singapore-airlines-to-launch-reconfigured-a380-on-mumbai-route
https://livefromalounge.boardingarea.com/2019/06/02/airbus-a380-singapore-airlines-india/

Are you sure SQ use the long haul config A350 at BOM instead of the regional config ? That'd be quite a loss of seats.

avier · Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:32 am

sabby wrote:
Are you sure SQ use the long haul config A350 at BOM instead of the regional config ? That'd be quite a loss of seats.

SQ has two configs for their A350's: a Regional one and another more premium heavy one, the latter used on BOM route.
I guess you're confusing with the A350ULR which is a completely different variant/config in their fleet.

anshabhi · Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:33 am

sabby wrote:
avier wrote:
SQ will be introducing the new "Suites" cabin product A380 on Singapore- Mumbai route from Sep '19. These are private first class suites and is the new product on their reconfigured A380's. This along with their existing frequency to BOM receiving the premium heavy A350's. DEL receives A380 and 787-10 and BLR/CCU the regional config. A350's.

https://www.traveltrendstoday.in/news/aviation/item/7209-singapore-airlines-to-launch-reconfigured-a380-on-mumbai-route
https://livefromalounge.boardingarea.com/2019/06/02/airbus-a380-singapore-airlines-india/

Are you sure SQ use the long haul config A350 at BOM instead of the regional config ? That'd be quite a loss of seats.

Its like India is their best choice to send for maximizing a/c utilization. After a 30 hour round trip long haul you can do a 10 hour India round trip over a 48 hour cycle

FligtReporter · Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:15 am

Ok I never comment and usually just go through posts However In these recent turbulent times in Indian aviation where we have seen a 25 year old Airline like 9W shutting down and falling to its demise and AI goin through its new norm of losses Im forced to wonder if this is what the new norm of Indian aviation is and is this how its gona be like forver.

Now LCCs like Spice and 6E are making their benefits out of both 6E obviously the king of Indian aviation in terms of fleet and pax count So My worries aint in that department its more in the FSC department.

Now AI,Being the oldest asian airline and ofcorse the flag carier of our country doesn't look good as its always making losses.However I did read somewhere a few days ago its Sub AIX had a good load on its Gulf flights...so wheres the problem..I assume its management or sarkari babus who dunno how to run an airline.

I mean I like their domestic product which is very good compared to Vistara which was my favourite untill I realized I was being cheated in payin extra for their so called Premium Economy whereas AI offered me the same in their Economy.

Now I see a lot of people talkin about how the Gov should shut AI down and stuff though there are reports of it being privatised but I dunno what the future holds,However For me,I think AI has served the Indian people in many great ways like carrying out the worlds largest Human Evacuation by a commercial airline,Evactuation of Indians and foreigners in Yemen and also Kathmandu Earthquake 2015 etc.

I mean it has been making losses i get it,Its sort of a white elephant however if its shut down then what will happen to its employees,We saw what a mess 9Ws collapse created and their staff on social media is still hopefull though i know the airline is gone,Can the govt afford to lose AI ?

So my question to all the respected aviation pundits is that If/when AI shuts down will Vistara or IndiGo or Spice offer the same relief flights to rescue Indians stranded abroad and play the default Flag carier ?

Also Do you think AI will continue to fly forver like it is flying being in gov's hand and gov will keep pumpin in the money like the case is with Italian gov and Alitalia ?

Cause I honestly Feel AI is only flying cause India has a huge middle class population and huge economy and its the common man thats flying AI had it been Air Zimbabwe or Air Zambia it would have long gone.

do share your thoughts !

edealinfo · Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:35 am

avier wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
They brought in 5 new planes (4 737s and 1 A320 neo). The new routes don't seem too much to warrant 5 planes. Did they not also increase flights for existing routes?

They had first started using 737's out of DEL to ATQ/GAU/IXC(x2).The A320 towards restoring some flights they pulled out when they first jumped for Jets slots.

Thank you for the clarification!

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