To be honest I don’t know how SpiceJet is helped by more seats to DXB. They will get a good chunk of Jet’s ME routes / seats (to DXB and other markets). I feel like Spice is helped by higher fares more than being EK’s lackey on just sending people to DXB for $800 fares to the US.
That will come down to what SG decides to do with the codeshare. The reason EK is successful in addition to the ad nauseam discussion on Tier 1 v Tier 2/3 is that there is a healthy O&D between DXB and India. There are in excess of a million expats working and living in UAE in addition to the Dubai Shopping festival crowd. Flights from the US only feed 1 EK bank at DXB ( 2 if Tier 1) But most EK stations see multiple dailies.
Let's take an example of a market like Indore which is not served by EK. So today you have to travel IDR-BOM/DEL-DXB vice versa (I did not bother to check if Air Arabia or FlyDubai serve IDR). Can SG fill that connection gap at BOM so that the worker from Indore can connect on to SG from EK500/EK502?
Or does SG open a port of call in India using the (subject to availability) bilateral to fly DXB - IDR? Combine IDR-DXB O&D with market for IDR-DXB-XXX, if seamless travel is made possible on EK, you just eliminated one stop. EK and SG don't have to open the same port of call.
Not everything is centered on pushing on traffic to the US.
Spice can just look at how Jet’s pushing people through AUH worked for them. I mean look at all the seats and cities they could fly to AUH. And it failed.
Key phrase: "could". That is as much on EY as it is on 9W. EY re-timed half of their US/NA bank flights which messed with onward connections to/from non-BOM/DEL/BLR stations. Poor execution of strategy is not the fault of the strategy itself. Note: of the remaining EY stations in the US, ORD has been reverted back to the evening departure from the US side.
If I was the GOI I would continue with the proposal of converting unused AUH, SHJ seats to DXB seats. That is the fair thing to do and a win win for both. Remember both sides have unused seats and the UAE benefits by more indian tourists to DXB.
I very much doubt Abu Dhabi or Sharjah will agree to that. What they should do is keep the current seats and then move the BASA to 1 for the UAE v separate for each Emirate.