speedbird52
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Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:43 am

https://simpleflying.com/emirates-a380-retirement/

Sorry for not getting a better source but the quotes make it reliable. If you ask me mid 2030s isn't that disastrous of a life span. That would mean the youngest would be around 14 years which seems to be the norm for Emirates aircraft. I assume this would also be good for other A380 operators as it means parts supply lines will last for the near future?
 
pa747sp
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:09 am

I think that one of the issues for EK is that they factored in a good second-hand value for the aircraft as they rolled them over for newer aircraft. That value is expected to be much lower now that that production is ending, and the A380 isn't a good prospect for conversion to a freighter.
Nothing seems as good since the VC10.
 
DominoxX
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:27 am

Why isn't the A380 a good candidate for a freighter? It has a wing box and wingspan meant to hold more weight. Or is simply the fact its nose doesn't open like the 747's already puts it a big disadvantage ?

In the second hand market I see the A380 ending up in charter carriers, and in Air Peace
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flee
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:32 am

DominoxX wrote:
Why isn't the A380 a good candidate for a freighter? It has a wing box and wingspan meant to hold more weight. Or is simply the fact its nose doesn't open like the 747's already puts it a big disadvantage ?

I think it is the strength of the floors that does not allow for heavy loads to be carried. However, package carriers like FedEx might like them, if the economics makes sense.
 
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flee
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:34 am

speedbird52 wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/emirates-a380-retirement/

Sorry for not getting a better source but the quotes make it reliable. If you ask me mid 2030s isn't that disastrous of a life span. That would mean the youngest would be around 14 years which seems to be the norm for Emirates aircraft. I assume this would also be good for other A380 operators as it means parts supply lines will last for the near future?

I would take all these long range projections with a grain of salt. EK might retire the A380s earlier, or later. It all depends on the business case for having them in the fleet. Also, a different management team will be in charge - so their policies might differ from the present team.
 
c933103
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:40 am

Not able to find a better source? The article have a link to a more direct source built in: https://atwonline.com/iata-agm-2019/iat ... l-year-end
Clark pointed out that the A380s still provide “enormous market pull” and are operated at very high load factors in the premium cabins in particular. “We will continue to invest in them and fly them into the mid-2030s,” he said.
This is a placeholder.
 
KFLLCFII
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:42 am

speedbird52 wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/emirates-a380-retirement/

Sorry for not getting a better source but the quotes make it reliable. If you ask me mid 2030s isn't that disastrous of a life span. That would mean the youngest would be around 14 years which seems to be the norm for Emirates aircraft.

Wishful thinking on their part...Epecially if the price of oil keeps climbing and if they continue to find themselves in increasingly challenging times.

They could very well all end up stored in the desert by or before 2030.
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
speedbird52
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:43 am

flee wrote:
DominoxX wrote:
Why isn't the A380 a good candidate for a freighter? It has a wing box and wingspan meant to hold more weight. Or is simply the fact its nose doesn't open like the 747's already puts it a big disadvantage ?

I think it is the strength of the floors that does not allow for heavy loads to be carried. However, package carriers like FedEx might like them, if the economics makes sense.

Wouldn't they require new equipment to reach the upper deck? I would certainly like to see them though.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:53 am

I hope to be retired by the mid 2030s, too
 
AIRT0M
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:12 am

KFLLCFII wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/emirates-a380-retirement/

Sorry for not getting a better source but the quotes make it reliable. If you ask me mid 2030s isn't that disastrous of a life span. That would mean the youngest would be around 14 years which seems to be the norm for Emirates aircraft.

Wishful thinking on their part...Epecially if the price of oil keeps climbing and if they continue to find themselves in increasingly challenging times.

They could very well all end up stored in the desert by or before 2030.



Woulda shoulda coulda ... I guess you know better than EK.
 
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AirKevin
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:04 am

DominoxX wrote:
Why isn't the A380 a good candidate for a freighter? It has a wing box and wingspan meant to hold more weight. Or is simply the fact its nose doesn't open like the 747's already puts it a big disadvantage ?

The nose would be irrelevant because as far as I'm aware, a 747 that was converted to a freighter doesn't have the nose cargo door, either.
Captain Kevin
 
TC957
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:06 am

Well, I'm happy EK knows exactly how aviation will pan out in the next 15 years so accurately.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:00 pm

pa747sp wrote:
I think that one of the issues for EK is that they factored in a good second-hand value for the aircraft as they rolled them over for newer aircraft. That value is expected to be much lower now that that production is ending, and the A380 isn't a good prospect for conversion to a freighter.

Airliners used to be built with strong enough floors for freight service. No longer. I believe the latest widebody with a strong enough floor is the A330. So the era of airliners having a second life as freighters is probably coming to an end.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
thegrew
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:08 pm

SEPilot wrote:
pa747sp wrote:
I think that one of the issues for EK is that they factored in a good second-hand value for the aircraft as they rolled them over for newer aircraft. That value is expected to be much lower now that that production is ending, and the A380 isn't a good prospect for conversion to a freighter.

Airliners used to be built with strong enough floors for freight service. No longer. I believe the latest widebody with a strong enough floor is the A330. So the era of airliners having a second life as freighters is probably coming to an end.
That it interesting if true. I guess there is a weight penalty to the stronger floor. Could one be retrofitted as part of conversion or would it be prohibitively expensive?

Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:08 pm

TC957 wrote:
Well, I'm happy EK knows exactly how aviation will pan out in the next 15 years so accurately.


I was thinking the same thing. Forecasts of fuel prices 15 years out, relative fuel efficiency of 77X (or whatever may exist then), parts support, network configuration...
 
DartHerald
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:10 pm

Could the issue of needing special equipment for loading the upper floor be addressed by loading through the lower deck and having an internal lift. I could see package operators using them on trunk routes where volume is more important than weight.
 
A388
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:37 pm

That's a quality article on the simpleflying website :roll:

A388
 
N91
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:51 pm

And what a sad day it will be. Admittedly I'm not a very frequent flyer, and I don't know much about airline economics, just a passing interest, but of all the flights I've been on, the A380 was my favourite by far, followed by the 747. And they'll both be gone in 15-20 years :(
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:13 pm

For published leases on aircraft delivered from now until production ends, will be interesting to compare details with earlier leases, in particular the Loan A and B values, and the total. Of course, there are parts which aren't disclosed, so no comparisons possible, like EOL formula, capped cycles and hours, and related engine maintenance contract T&C's.
 
dcs921
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:27 pm

thegrew wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
pa747sp wrote:
I think that one of the issues for EK is that they factored in a good second-hand value for the aircraft as they rolled them over for newer aircraft. That value is expected to be much lower now that that production is ending, and the A380 isn't a good prospect for conversion to a freighter.

Airliners used to be built with strong enough floors for freight service. No longer. I believe the latest widebody with a strong enough floor is the A330. So the era of airliners having a second life as freighters is probably coming to an end.
That it interesting if true. I guess there is a weight penalty to the stronger floor. Could one be retrofitted as part of conversion or would it be prohibitively expensive?

Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk


Yes. The floor beam issue has caused issues and delays with the A320 and 777 freighter conversion programs.

DartHerald wrote:
Could the issue of needing special equipment for loading the upper floor be addressed by loading through the lower deck and having an internal lift. I could see package operators using them on trunk routes where volume is more important than weight.


Adding an internal lift would add a lot of extra weight, take up valuable floor space, add complexity, and add cost to the conversion program. Not too mention if the lift breaks you'll leave packages stuck without any way of finishing loading or unloading the aircraft. Effectively grounding the aircraft.
 
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:42 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/emirates-a380-retirement/

Sorry for not getting a better source but the quotes make it reliable.


Nothing is reliable if you are talking those sorts of timelines. This is aviation. Fuel prices, wars, economic instability, mergers, new management etc. will upend those plans countless times before the mid 2030s. Tim Clark will be well past retirement at that point, and even the country itself may have had a change of leadership.



AA and Delta went from an exclusive 20 year deal with Boeing to becoming some of Airbus' biggest customers in less time.
 
Bhoy
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:15 pm

KFLLCFII wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/emirates-a380-retirement/

Sorry for not getting a better source but the quotes make it reliable. If you ask me mid 2030s isn't that disastrous of a life span. That would mean the youngest would be around 14 years which seems to be the norm for Emirates aircraft.

Wishful thinking on their part...Epecially if the price of oil keeps climbing and if they continue to find themselves in increasingly challenging times.

They could very well all end up stored in the desert by or before 2030.

In the desert? You mean Dubai, surrounded by sand? :duck:
 
texl1649
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:30 pm

The question is still about 10 years out I think; which will have the last passenger flight, the A380 or 748? LH I could see outlasting EK certainly.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:45 pm

Emirates, A380, and the R-word in the same sentence on a.net, that also in a thread title.

I need a moment...
 
Dominion301
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:26 pm

N91 wrote:
And what a sad day it will be. Admittedly I'm not a very frequent flyer, and I don't know much about airline economics, just a passing interest, but of all the flights I've been on, the A380 was my favourite by far, followed by the 747. And they'll both be gone in 15-20 years :(


The 747 as a passenger hauler yes probably in 20 years max. However, as a freighter (and VIP transport), will probably be more like 2050. Heck Boeing might still be building 747Fs in the 2030s are there's nothing on the horizon that can replace it, not even a 778F.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:28 pm

Clark is probably gasping at the lease rates for the upcoming deliveries. Suddenly the lease has costs over the 12 year term, not 20+. The residual value has tanked to parts level. But parts are worthless the moment the last ones are in the air.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:40 pm

DominoxX wrote:
Why isn't the A380 a good candidate for a freighter? It has a wing box and wingspan meant to hold more weight. Or is simply the fact its nose doesn't open like the 747's already puts it a big disadvantage ?

In the second hand market I see the A380 ending up in charter carriers, and in Air Peace


It cannot handle outsized freight to maximize it's immense volume.. the cockpit is too low to handle outsized cargo .to maximize it cubic space
 
Strato2
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:43 pm

texl1649 wrote:
The question is still about 10 years out I think; which will have the last passenger flight, the A380 or 748? LH I could see outlasting EK certainly.


Is it? The 748 is less efficient than the A380, has passenger appeal like a A320 and an orphan fleet of about 30 worldwide. Also need to remember LH also flies the 380. The only hope for 748 is if they are converted into freighters.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:45 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Clark is probably gasping at the lease rates for the upcoming deliveries. Suddenly the lease has costs over the 12 year term, not 20+. The residual value has tanked to parts level. But parts are worthless the moment the last ones are in the air.

And parts cost escalate the moment the production line closes.

It's going to be a mighty big whipsaw effect.

Consider that we have Lufthansa, an airline known for running frames till they can't be run any more, returning six A380s to Airbus in 2022-3 ( ref: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgol ... -dump-jet/ ).

Clearly they want to get out sooner rather than later, which is what I predict the rest of the operators will do.
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:12 pm

thegrew wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
pa747sp wrote:
I think that one of the issues for EK is that they factored in a good second-hand value for the aircraft as they rolled them over for newer aircraft. That value is expected to be much lower now that that production is ending, and the A380 isn't a good prospect for conversion to a freighter.

Airliners used to be built with strong enough floors for freight service. No longer. I believe the latest widebody with a strong enough floor is the A330. So the era of airliners having a second life as freighters is probably coming to an end.
That it interesting if true. I guess there is a weight penalty to the stronger floor. Could one be retrofitted as part of conversion or would it be prohibitively expensive?

Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk

The problem is it is too expensive. That is why the 777 has no P to F conversion program. The passenger version has composite floor beams, and the freighter has aluminum. Changing them is apparently cost prohibitive. I believe it is the same with the A380, which has the additional drawback that it will, with normal density freight, max out on weight long before it is full. That is why, when they offered it as a freighter only FedEx and UPS were interested. And the 787 and A350 are going to have the same issue as well, I am sure.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
LXA340
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:57 pm

EK has a whole terminal dedicated to the A380, I guess by the time they will retire the A380's the terminal also hits around 20 years + and will be closed down for a major renovation.

On another note, if the demand for air travel will continue to grow that drastically, we will need again planes such as the A380 in 20 years + since the space is limited and at some point only frequency will not be enough since by increasing demand you will be able to fill such aircraft profitably
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:00 pm

LXA340 wrote:
EK has a whole terminal dedicated to the A380, I guess by the time they will retire the A380's the terminal also hits around 20 years + and will be closed down for a major renovation.
...

Well, maybe that's the master plan now? Retirement of A380 coinciding with retirement of the terminal, and the entire DXB airport? Then DXB is relegated to general aviation, with all civil aviation relocating to DWC? And DWC designed for post-A380 operations.
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