JibberJim
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:00 am

62k64k wrote:
The above example shows that maybe there is a 3rd option – that is to not replace the E190’s and use A320Ns and A321Ns instead of the LCY E190s and smaller A319s. Indeed, we know that BA will be reducing their present 42x A319 fleet to 20x by the end of 2023 and replacing them with A320N and A321N. Looking at the flight data, this could work for most of the destinations from LCY.


however that would mean leaving LCY, have you looked at the ticket prices between the different airports, LCY certainly commands a per traveller revenue advantage, if it is enough of a one with under 100 seats on old tech aircraft or very low density new tech aircraft I don't know.
 
62k64k
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:30 am

JibberJim wrote:
62k64k wrote:
The above example shows that maybe there is a 3rd option – that is to not replace the E190’s and use A320Ns and A321Ns instead of the LCY E190s and smaller A319s. Indeed, we know that BA will be reducing their present 42x A319 fleet to 20x by the end of 2023 and replacing them with A320N and A321N. Looking at the flight data, this could work for most of the destinations from LCY.


however that would mean leaving LCY, have you looked at the ticket prices between the different airports, LCY certainly commands a per traveller revenue advantage, if it is enough of a one with under 100 seats on old tech aircraft or very low density new tech aircraft I don't know.


Indeed though it would be difficult to see what the premium is presently even when looking at public prices. Perhaps if they do order the A220 or E190E2 (and for same number of frames) then we know that the premium is worth it for BA, for some routes at least. I could though see routes like Prague, Mallorca, JFK, Malaga and Ibiza potentially being removed from BACF at LCY in any event. I just can't see there being a large premium on these routes vs BA LHR or LGW on much more effective planes such as A320N/A321N.

This is of course with the present 99 seat scope limit, if the limit would be relaxed to 125 or so then no doubt, the A220 and E190E2 would be much more interesting options, though I have not heard of any potential changes to this, and given the present Pilot Situation at BA, I doubt this would be changed anytime soon.

jghealey wrote:
But the A320neo can't land at LCY? Also, Rotterdam is operated by CityFlyer not wetlease partners. I don't know if you're referring to BA mainline or CityFlyer when you mentioned mainline but BA mainline certainly has no presence at LCY other than the JFK route.


Sorry, I wasn't clear, A320neo is certainly not certified at LCY and by Mainline I mean BA flights from LHR and LGW. Rotterdam is BACF but this, along with IOM (which is wetleased), are only (non-seasonal) destinations that aren't flown by BA from LHR or LGW. Note, Vueling operates the Florence route from LGW and is a BA codeshare.
 
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Kindanew
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sat Aug 24, 2019 10:43 am

What I hear from inside City Flier is that both the A220 and the E2’s are still in the running. The existing fleet will be replaced and the first new aircraft will arrive in 2021.

Personally I think this will go to Embraer. Simpler transition and Airbus clearly aren’t as desperate for sales.
 
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DLHAM
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:24 pm

HP69 wrote:
I think they should consider adding more A318s instead, as it is expensive to introduce a new fleet type.


Does Airbus still even offer A318s?

The A318 is heavy, expensive and inefficient. The only advantage seems to be Container Loading, that should be about it. Commonality yes, but there are also more than 40 A319s which need replacment in the coming years, both the CS100 and E195E2 are perfect for that. Airbus could easily win the order - I think - by finally offering a CS500, which could as well replace part of the 60+ A320. Only problem left would be no Container Loading which is Important for BA at LHR AFAIK.
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eagles94
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:32 pm

The talks of dropping the BA name all together are becoming stronger within the staff community at BACF.
If this is the case the seat rule would be dropped and they can ship in some A220s.
I’d imagine the leisure market would greatly expand if this happened, the sun routes seem to be doing quite well.

I’m sure IAG would come up with a super uncreative generic name for them like they do everyone else.
 
Lufthansa
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:13 pm

A220. Even if it requires the Shannon stop that's not such a bad thing due to the US pre clearance there. You'd have to spend more time going through customs at JFK anyway, rather than just walk off states side. If they really wanted to do something interesting, see if they could get an exemption to
use LGA instead and have a water taxi meet everybody at the Marine air terminal to shuttle everybody to Manhattan and avoid the traffic.
 
62k64k
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:24 pm

DLHAM wrote:
HP69 wrote:
The A318 is heavy, expensive and inefficient. The only advantage seems to be Container Loading, that should be about it. Commonality yes, but there are also more than 40 A319s which need replacment in the coming years, both the CS100 and E195E2 are perfect for that. .


22 of the 42 LHR and LGW A319s are being replaced with A320neo's and A321neo's by 2023. 10 of the A319s are due to be retired this year, 6 of them in November alone.

Back to topic, we have:

    "At least 26" A220s (probable -100) and limited to 99 seats
    "At least 26" E190 E2 also limited to 99 seats

My thought of reducing the size of BACF at LCY and concentrating on higher yielding destinations as both of the above options are less than ideal vs the LGW/LHR short-haul fleet and route map - this includes the JFK route. In extremis, and with a large disclaimer that I do not know the yields, that BA could potentially close their presence at LCY completely due to points made earlier:

    - extremely similar route map as LHR/LGW that BA mainline fly from presently
    - frequency still decent from LHR/LGW on most routes (Edinburgh example made earlier)
    - Crossrail/Liz line
    - LCY being almost exclusively OD so whether moving capacity to LGW or LHR does not matter so much
    - Competitive planes in terms of 180 seat A320N and 220 seat A321N for BA mainline at LHR/LGW (and higher capacity than present A319 fleet so limited requirement for more slots; though BA still have the 20 daily pairs of ex-Monarch slots at LGW that need to be utilised fully)
    - Effective blocked seats for A220 and E190 E2 at LCY due to scope clause at BACF
    - Costs of additional pilots/crew/maintenance on relatively small subfleet at LCY

Edit, so much talk on the LCY/JFK route earlier on in this thread, this is such a tiny part of BA's presence at LCY (though crewed by LGW staff) that it's not worth spending much time on. Crossrail (and potential T5B at LHR pre-clearance) will likely kill this route, as mentioned, I was on this route last year and was one of 7 passengers.
 
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Aisak
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:00 pm

62k64k wrote:
Edit, so much talk on the LCY/JFK route earlier on in this thread, this is such a tiny part of BA's presence at LCY (though crewed by LGW staff) that it's not worth spending much time on. Crossrail (and potential T5B at LHR pre-clearance) will likely kill this route, as mentioned, I was on this route last year and was one of 7 passengers.

Even more challenges for the LCY JFK route...
-Now the 318 is crewed from LGW based staff but soon there will be no Airbus short haul based at LGW as new MAX frames come in.
-The Club World offering is so distinct on the 318, that BA decide to name it differently. Will the Club suites fit on a narrowbody? Will it look better (read fit) on the 318 or the 220-100? Pretty soon the City ClubWorld will be subpar to the longhaul offering from LHR/LGW.
-SNN will soon have a different inmigration (and customs but that’s negligible) and security policy (EU) than LCY (UK ex-EU). So the processing of passengers and their baggage from LCY onwards to JFK could be way different than the one we see today.

I’m not sure if LCY long haul (only 6xweekly 1 destination route) will last any much longer so it should not be a driver to take into account on future fleet decisions...
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sun Aug 25, 2019 1:23 am

I think a 99 seat E2 would have better CASM than a 99 seat A220-100. I could be wrong. But I cannot overlook the E2 here, it has to be the main choice.
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:32 am

62k64k wrote:
So here is what we know:

[list]
A single 32 J seat A318 operates 6 times a week (bar some weeks over the Summer and Winter) on the JFK specialty flight.

BACF has a franchise partnership with Sun-Air (Billund).


The A318 has nothing to do with BACF. It is operated by BA mainline itself using Airbus-qualified flight crews from the LHR/LGW pilot pool, and cabin crews from the BA mainline base at LGW.

The Sun-Air franchise partnership is between BA generally and Sun-Air, on the same basis as the one with Comair (South Africa). BACF doesn't get involved in these activities.
 
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FlyCaledonian
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:10 pm

Any indication that BA sees a future in the longer term for LCY-JFK would be a refurbished of G-EUNA with the new Club World suites, or a variant thereof. With the Suites rolling out onto some JFK flights in the Autumn (and reconfiguratioon of the Hi-J 744s likely starting in early 2020) the Club World London City product is going to look very dated.
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:27 pm

SEU wrote:
I think a 99 seat E2 would have better CASM than a 99 seat A220-100. I could be wrong. But I cannot overlook the E2 here, it has to be the main choice.

If the other terms are the same, the E2-190 should have a lower cost per flight. Since the same quantity of seats, same CASM. The A220-100 could add American style J class fat daddy seats to improve revenue.

BA knows how to improve revenue. They will do a cost/benefit and decide based on expected costs and revenue.

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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:39 pm

SEU wrote:
I think a 99 seat E2 would have better CASM than a 99 seat A220-100. I could be wrong. But I cannot overlook the E2 here, it has to be the main choice.


Pro about the A220-100 is that the cabin is wider. So wide that it can fit 5-abreast seating. With a 99-seats scope clause yo can have a nice 4 abreast seating. The main con is the limited stands available at LCY for an aircraft its size.
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:21 pm

It's been deleted now, but earlier today John Slattery (Embraer CEO) tweeted a picture of an E2 in BA livery to congratulate BA on their centenary..
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:35 pm

SQ317 wrote:
It's been deleted now, but earlier today John Slattery (Embraer CEO) tweeted a picture of an E2 in BA livery to congratulate BA on their centenary..


No the tweet is still there, and it's an E1
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:59 am

queb wrote:
SQ317 wrote:
It's been deleted now, but earlier today John Slattery (Embraer CEO) tweeted a picture of an E2 in BA livery to congratulate BA on their centenary..


No the tweet is still there, and it's an E1

It's an E1 now, but they definitely had an earlier tweet with an E2 in the BA livery. I saw it myself.

Edit: someone got a screenshot of it:

Image
https://twitter.com/emrepeker09/status/ ... 3819622407
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:44 am

lightsaber wrote:
SEU wrote:
I think a 99 seat E2 would have better CASM than a 99 seat A220-100. I could be wrong. But I cannot overlook the E2 here, it has to be the main choice.

If the other terms are the same, the E2-190 should have a lower cost per flight. Since the same quantity of seats, same CASM. The A220-100 could add American style J class fat daddy seats to improve revenue.

BA knows how to improve revenue. They will do a cost/benefit and decide based on expected costs and revenue.

Lightsaber


Depends where BA want to fly it to, A220 will have greater range at LCY weights so it could be used to develop new routes.
BV
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:45 am

I think LCY-JFK will go the way of the dinosaurs once Crossrail opens next year and LHR is brought much closer to The City in travelling time.

At that point the value of A220 vs 190-E2s starts to diminish as a key advantage would be being able to op -100s to do long-haul J only flights to places like JFK as the A318s do now, alongside the -300s that CityFlyer would presumably get.

The E2 is a smaller plane than an A220-300 in terms of ramp footprint and is I imagine a little easier to handle on the ground. I fly through LCY once or twice a week every week and am always amazed at how tight the apron space is and how C L O S E they get to other aircraft when parking up. Up-gauging from E190 to A223, from a large aircraft to a very large aircraft indeed (by LCY standards) is not an inconsiderable thing. You only have to see the size difference of the Swiss A220s when they come in compared to the mainly E-jet ramp to see how much bigger they look.

My view is the E-jets do very nicely for BA CityFlyer and have the right performance level and costs to really be competitive at LCY. They are quite the little rocket ships, I really love them. I flew on a packed full E190-SR from LCY-RTM last night on the 1940 departure and we rotated after a twelve second takeoff run, brakes off to V1/rotation. It wasn't even a TOGA departure. I have the video on my IG if anyone wants to see it.

The crews are all Embraer type rated, the route network is optimized for E-jets and the E2 is a very competitive product. I'd be quite surprised if they went A221/3 to replace them. Conversely i'd be a little bit surprised if they didnt buy a couple of dozen A220s to replace the last of the A319s and the older A320s at LHR so i do think we'll see A220s in Speedbird livery, just probably not at CityFlyer.
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:42 am

As an aside I always wondered why BA Mainline didn't have some sort of arrangement with BACF for rotating the E-jets through LGW/LHR at weekends.

Right now they do places like Skiathos, Ibiza etc at weekends from LCY and I am not sure how profitable they are - looks like placeholding for utilisation to me. Surely doing bucket and spade / leisure routes ex-LHR/LGW at weekends would be much more profitable, and also allow them to rotate the short haul Airbus fleet out for much-needed MX and cleaning, upgrades etc?
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:49 am

CHRISBA35X wrote:
As an aside I always wondered why BA Mainline didn't have some sort of arrangement with BACF for rotating the E-jets through LGW/LHR at weekends.

Right now they do places like Skiathos, Ibiza etc at weekends from LCY and I am not sure how profitable they are - looks like placeholding for utilisation to me. Surely doing bucket and spade / leisure routes ex-LHR/LGW at weekends would be much more profitable, and also allow them to rotate the short haul Airbus fleet out for much-needed MX and cleaning, upgrades etc?


At LHR I believe it’s to protect Pilot jobs/contract agreement.

LGW was done a few summers ago to cover all the extra slots they BA gone from Monarch
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:11 am

CHRISBA35X wrote:
As an aside I always wondered why BA Mainline didn't have some sort of arrangement with BACF for rotating the E-jets through LGW/LHR at weekends.

Right now they do places like Skiathos, Ibiza etc at weekends from LCY and I am not sure how profitable they are - looks like placeholding for utilisation to me. Surely doing bucket and spade / leisure routes ex-LHR/LGW at weekends would be much more profitable, and also allow them to rotate the short haul Airbus fleet out for much-needed MX and cleaning, upgrades etc?

The 190s do a lot of scheduled charters from the regions at Weekends, too.
E.g. G-LCYJ flew LCY-IBZ on Saturday morning, then flew IBZ-MAN, before doing a MAN-JMK-MAN rotation that afternoon, on Sunday it flew MAN-NCE-MAN before flying MAN-AGP-LCY.
Likewise G-LCYM flew the 'normal' LCY-EDI on Saturday morning, before doing an EDI-FLR-EDI rotation on Saturday afternoon.

There's loads more examples every weekend. So they do non-placeholder routes, too.
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:19 am

The MAN flights are not charters, they are scheduled flights. To be charters, it needs to be chartered by someone and the MAN flights are not, they are all seat only.
 
skipness1E
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:40 am

The bulk of the non LCY will be canned sharpish if the curfew is removed.
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:07 am

Given the growing anti-Aviation sentiment that is currently taking place, one wonders just how easily the LCY curfews could be removed.

Secondly, LCY mostly caters for the city of London and Canary Wharf workers. Given those 2 areas are absolute ghost towns on Saturdays (seriously, it’s like a scene from 28 days later or I am Legend for the American posters), what would be the actual uptake in flights look like on Saturday mornings, as I would hazard a guess it would either be half empty or incredibly low yielding due to low fares to try and fill the flights.
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:55 am

Opus99 wrote:
george77300 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:

Thanks for your comments:

- Sorry on this one - I was sure BA was getting some MAX but thought that Vueling would continue on a Aribus only. That's why I considered IB might get them. Wrong on my side;
- Obviously LGW for BA is now MAX so no A220s there but, I see soooo many (moderators included...) betting on A220s on BA that I wondered if there would not be a chance despite the containerization issue (how did BBD miss this on the project???)
- I imagined that BA would consider something in between the A319 and A320 and that's where the A220-300 would fit in. I wonder if Airbus will not make pressure this eventually
- For a prospective order of 26 aircrafts, you might be right and the E2 will make the grade.


Now worries at all. Maybe A220s for IB one day? I could see that. I just don’t see it happening at BA mainline for sure. As for CityFlyer there just isn’t the capability at LCY and they would HAVE to go split with E-Jets for their full timetable. BA for sure don’t want smaller than A320neo at LHR (and require containers). They just recently swapped more A320neos to A321neos. I don’t see the BA personally.

We’ll see I guess. But the MAXs are 100% at this time anyway for Level/ Vueling and BA LGW only. None for IB/EI/BA LHR. Obviously this could change but as IB/EI are all Airbus and relatively small compared to BA and also no containers capability for BA LHR I don’t see this changing.

Actually BA can operate at LHR without containers if they want to. It is done actually. Not on a large scale but if they want to they can.


Thanks for the clarification but I do not think LHR's container-free routes warrant a significant order at a point of BA to add a brand new frame, although Airbus could "bundle" some A220s on a bigger A320 order for example. They seem to be upber-agressive now probably capitalizing on Embraer/Boeing's stagnation in market th E2 bundled with other Boeing products until the JV is done/MAX issues are dealt with
 
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OA940
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:54 am

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but is the E2 even certified for LCY yet? I haven't heard anything. I assume considering it's a new type they'd need certification. Also is it really such a stretch to assume the 99-seat restrictions would be abolished? I mean even the E2 with 31" of pitch takes 104 so... Also as much as I'd like the A220 to win its gonna be a close battle regardless. Don't underestimate either plane.
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Kindanew
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:05 pm

The E2 flew in to City on a demonstration flight earlier this year and performed multiple take offs and landings.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:47 pm

OA940 wrote:
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but is the E2 even certified for LCY yet? I haven't heard anything. I assume considering it's a new type they'd need certification. Also is it really such a stretch to assume the 99-seat restrictions would be abolished? I mean even the E2 with 31" of pitch takes 104 so... Also as much as I'd like the A220 to win its gonna be a close battle regardless. Don't underestimate either plane.

I agree, do not underestimate either plane. I believe this is a seriously contested order.

The advantage for IAG is they will not be the launch operator for either type. For example, as an intense opperator and launch opperator, JetBlue is always discovering new issues with the E-190. IAG doesn't buy new for that reason. In my opinion, the first 18 months of production has teething issues and an airline wants to be at least a year behind that for maintenance processes to mature. IAG should be fine with either.

One think to consider is that during the first two years of Airbus or Boeing ownership, the aircraft will be modified to their standards. So IAG should consider that timeline too.

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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:

One think to consider is that during the first two years of Airbus or Boeing ownership, the aircraft will be modified to their standards.

Lightsaber


Which “standards” you mean???
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:45 pm

I'm really if/why IAG isn't considering this order in a group context. Surely, an E2 or A220 fleet would do well at EI too.
 
SEU
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:48 pm

TObound wrote:
I'm really if/why IAG isn't considering this order in a group context. Surely, an E2 or A220 fleet would do well at EI too.


I believe they will order both. A220s would be fantastic at EI, E2s perfect for BACF and others.
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:35 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

One think to consider is that during the first two years of Airbus or Boeing ownership, the aircraft will be modified to their standards.

Lightsaber


Which “standards” you mean???

Software, paper, and some structural to meet their concepts of planning. Components to improve maintenance.

For example, the E2 has predictive maintenance. It would be inefficient to maintain a separate code base from the A320. So the best of the E2 will remain and go into the A320 also. The rest will maintain E2 specific constants and subroutines, but the A320 code will take over.

Maintenance plans will be aligned to the owning company standards to cut costs. Some details of the subsystems will have to be modified as they weren't built to the buying company's maintenance standards.

Initially, it will be a minimum, but not zero. Repairs will be analyzed to Airbus/Boeing standards. All re-engineered components will go through buying company engineering reviews and will be held to their internal processes. By this I mean structural design, testing requirements, electrical grounding, details on coatings, coatings, surface preparation, all the way to align with vendor specifications and manufacturing processes.

Booth the E2 and A220 need PiPs. All the PiPs will align to the buying company's standards. We live in the process generation and aerospace is process driven.

Airbus will force vendors to align to Airbus process on electrical noise, control logic review, use their wonderful mathematical proofs on control logic, fatigue. For stress calculations, align with Airbus vibration, stress limits for each materials, shock assumptions, and acoustic assumptions.

Boeing will do the same for the E2. Both will force vendor alignment to reduce costs on as much as possible as quickly as economical.

Both the E2 and A220 are certified for 60,000 FC and 90,000 FH. To extent those, which I believe is required, the buying company will insist on their structural standards to simplify review. Right now we see about 26 year old A320s being retired at about 26 years or about 4,600 hours per year. Unless A220s/E2s will be scrapped at 20 years, they must have a PiP.

Flight control and maintenance software will be assimilated. So will maintenance plans.

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0A340
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:43 pm

If I were Airbus, I would offer the A220 at 100% list price. Zero discount. Just for the gigs they are doing with the 737MAX.
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:56 pm

Crossrail will mean customers who currently choose BACF services will suddenly prefer Heathrow.
Hmmmm. I'm not so sure. My logic below.

Crossrail will only service T5 (the main base) twice per hour. Most Crossrail services (4 per hour) will go to T4. It'll need a change of train to get to T5. So it's suddenly not quite as convenient or quick as it appears

LCY has the advantage of speedy exit. There are many regular flyers coming in from Edinburgh and Glasgow who know that if the plane lands at 8am they can be confident of being in an office in the Wharf or the City before 9am, with a bit of luck just after 0830. Even when Crossrail is open and running smoothly, you'll never be able to match this from Heathrow. I've managed touch down to DLR in nine minutes - nine minutes after touch down at Heathrow you may well still be taxying to the terminal.
These early flights into City always sell out - try a test booking and look at the fares BA can charge on these routes. I do not see these regular customers switching to Heathrow.

The notion that LCY only serves customers in the City of Wharf is out of date. I know folk in East Anglia who choose City - it's the fastest option because of a direct DLR link from Stratford - the main rail route for that area. It's also surprisingly convenient for folk using Waterloo. The jubilee DLR connection is slick and swift.
BACF have a load of flights to the Balieric islands - there are wealthy villa owners from across London who are choosing these services. Many are retired, maybe they made their money in the City but that's not where they're based now.
 
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OA940
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:42 am

0A340 wrote:
If I were Airbus, I would offer the A220 at 100% list price. Zero discount. Just for the gigs they are doing with the 737MAX.


And that's exactly why you're not working at Airbus. Because I'm fairly sure there has been no order in modern aviation history that was made at list price
A350/CSeries = bae
 
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lightsaber
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:42 am

OA940 wrote:
0A340 wrote:
If I were Airbus, I would offer the A220 at 100% list price. Zero discount. Just for the gigs they are doing with the 737MAX.


And that's exactly why you're not working at Airbus. Because I'm fairly sure there has been no order in modern aviation history that was made at list price

In a competitive process where bidding is required, telling a customer to go away us silly. If anything, Airbus will sell near cost in an attempt to keep the E2 from attaining a viable economy of scale.

The aviation market isn't what it used to be. Due to the discounts automation provides a doubling of production reduces cost 13%. Some of the better automated machines, such as friction welders, cost $12 million each. Since investors require a backup, it quickly becomes non-viable to produce less than a hundred per year of related aircraft.

Note: I say related as, for example Cessna, shares wings, gear, tails, and cockpits between aircraft to acheive economy of scale between aircraft marketed to be more different than they are.

The E2 has unique subsystems (as does the A220). To keep the maintenance supply chain busy enough will require 600+ aircraft in service. The engines will be easy as 80% commonality is shared between engines on the A220, MRJ (many subsystems use the exact same rebuild kits as A220), G500/600, 6X, E2 and what looks like a growing list of military applications (I only mention military for the benefits to commercial spares economy of scale).

At this point, the A220 is certain to deliver 600+ just with top off orders (at 511, with many orders in question). Between JetBlue, Delta, LH group AF, KE, and AirBaltic, the A220 has a great list of opperators with more certain to come. There is a separate thread I started for their sales campaigns:
viewtopic.php?t=1428303

The E2 started all out sales campaigns about 30 months ago with the profit shark campaign. 324 orders to date. Embraer must double sales before COOs become excited about considering the type.

The E2 has Azul, KLM, and leading companies. Aircastle is getting beat up in every quarterly conference call for not being able to place E2s. I hope soon to read they placed their 2020 deliveries.
I started a thread on their sales campaigns too (hey, I'm a Pratt fan, so I want both to thrive):

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1429033

So this IAG order is crucial for both. As is AeroMexico.

Lightsaber
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Jomar777
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:05 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

One think to consider is that during the first two years of Airbus or Boeing ownership, the aircraft will be modified to their standards.

Lightsaber


Which “standards” you mean???


Mainly one single word (but other bits wold also apply) - COMMONALITY. The C-Series is no more. It is the A220 now. E2 will follow a similar path once the JV is established.

That's why for example, I do not belive on a A220-500. It is because the likelihood is for Airbus to introduce wholesale changes (or even a clean sheet project) which will comprise the actual A220 family all the way probably to what is today the A320/321 family. I do not know when but this is the way to go.

Boeing will do exactly the same and they will compete heads on as always did. The only exceptions were the A380 and B747 concepts. Some might argue that the B787 is not really a direct competitor to the A350 but it is: fact! The specifications, in a wider scenario are not so different.
 
Jomar777
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:25 pm

IslandDweller wrote:
Crossrail will mean customers who currently choose BACF services will suddenly prefer Heathrow.
Hmmmm. I'm not so sure. My logic below.

Crossrail will only service T5 (the main base) twice per hour. Most Crossrail services (4 per hour) will go to T4. It'll need a change of train to get to T5. So it's suddenly not quite as convenient or quick as it appears

LCY has the advantage of speedy exit. There are many regular flyers coming in from Edinburgh and Glasgow who know that if the plane lands at 8am they can be confident of being in an office in the Wharf or the City before 9am, with a bit of luck just after 0830. Even when Crossrail is open and running smoothly, you'll never be able to match this from Heathrow. I've managed touch down to DLR in nine minutes - nine minutes after touch down at Heathrow you may well still be taxying to the terminal.
These early flights into City always sell out - try a test booking and look at the fares BA can charge on these routes. I do not see these regular customers switching to Heathrow.

The notion that LCY only serves customers in the City of Wharf is out of date. I know folk in East Anglia who choose City - it's the fastest option because of a direct DLR link from Stratford - the main rail route for that area. It's also surprisingly convenient for folk using Waterloo. The jubilee DLR connection is slick and swift.
BACF have a load of flights to the Balieric islands - there are wealthy villa owners from across London who are choosing these services. Many are retired, maybe they made their money in the City but that's not where they're based now.


Actually, you forget that Crossrail will follow the Piccadilly, Heathrow Express, Heathrow Connect path. I.e. - you would likely connect either at Hatton Cross or Heathrow Central (even Hayes & Harlington for Connect and Cross Rail) seamlessly.

What is mentioned about LCY's demise is not really huge but it is significat in the fact that LCY would still exist and compete but probably back to the standards where you have mainly Businessmen from Europe coming to the City (US ones will go to Heathrow due to the better service and multi US cities availability which avoid them having to connect at JFK to land at LCY).

I know there's no comparison on the "landing to train" time between LHR and LCY but it only works for what LCY can serve whic is not really much. Last time I came to land at LCY was on a plane from AMS but my original departure was GRU. It was OK but, if I was coming for example from ORD, DEN, LAX, ect, I much rather fly on straight rather than face a connection at JFK (or in continental Europe) to them land at LCY - if I have the choice. (I actually only did the GRU-AMS-LCY trip to be able to fly on an Avro RJ before they did go out of service)
 
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:23 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

One think to consider is that during the first two years of Airbus or Boeing ownership, the aircraft will be modified to their standards.

Lightsaber


Which “standards” you mean???


Mainly one single word (but other bits wold also apply) - COMMONALITY. The C-Series is no more. It is the A220 now. E2 will follow a similar path once the JV is established.

That's why for example, I do not belive on a A220-500. It is because the likelihood is for Airbus to introduce wholesale changes (or even a clean sheet project) which will comprise the actual A220 family all the way probably to what is today the A320/321 family. I do not know when but this is the way to go.

Boeing will do exactly the same and they will compete heads on as always did. The only exceptions were the A380 and B747 concepts. Some might argue that the B787 is not really a direct competitor to the A350 but it is: fact! The specifications, in a wider scenario are not so different.

Yes, COMMONALITY answers it all.

So the customer receives one experience, one common training (for example, for mechanics). I can see aligning to Boeing (or Airbus) part numbers for identical or equivalent parts (bolts, washers, lubricants). Some testing/part redesign is required.

IMHO, getting the software code bases common is a big part of the effort so there is only one code base, with modified configuration files, as much as possible.

Sadly, it means the sellers lose a tap into lessons learned. What is Latin for seller beware? That always applies to IP.

Lightsaber
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Jomar777
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:59 am

lightsaber wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:

Which “standards” you mean???


Mainly one single word (but other bits wold also apply) - COMMONALITY. The C-Series is no more. It is the A220 now. E2 will follow a similar path once the JV is established.

That's why for example, I do not belive on a A220-500. It is because the likelihood is for Airbus to introduce wholesale changes (or even a clean sheet project) which will comprise the actual A220 family all the way probably to what is today the A320/321 family. I do not know when but this is the way to go.

Boeing will do exactly the same and they will compete heads on as always did. The only exceptions were the A380 and B747 concepts. Some might argue that the B787 is not really a direct competitor to the A350 but it is: fact! The specifications, in a wider scenario are not so different.

Yes, COMMONALITY answers it all.

So the customer receives one experience, one common training (for example, for mechanics). I can see aligning to Boeing (or Airbus) part numbers for identical or equivalent parts (bolts, washers, lubricants). Some testing/part redesign is required.

IMHO, getting the software code bases common is a big part of the effort so there is only one code base, with modified configuration files, as much as possible.

Sadly, it means the sellers lose a tap into lessons learned. What is Latin for seller beware? That always applies to IP.

Lightsaber


You are absolutely correct.

The Latin word is actually CAVEAT, by the way :-)
 
Amiga500
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:02 am

lightsaber wrote:
IMHO, getting the software code bases common is a big part of the effort so there is only one code base, with modified configuration files, as much as possible.


I'm not sure what you mean - what code base exactly?

FADEC?
FCS?
Diagnostics?
Avionics?

It is not as if airlines "maintain" software code on the aircraft anyway - it is very access restricted for the express purpose of preventing inadvertent tinkering with it.

I agree that installing updates can be a pain in the... but its much easier now than it was 15 years ago. Even 10 years ago.
 
skipness1E
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:09 am

eagles94 wrote:
The talks of dropping the BA name all together are becoming stronger within the staff community at BACF.
If this is the case the seat rule would be dropped and they can ship in some A220s.
I’d imagine the leisure market would greatly expand if this happened, the sun routes seem to be doing quite well.

I’m sure IAG would come up with a super uncreative generic name for them like they do everyone else.

BA isn't going to remove the brand from it's core frequent flier market out of LCY.
Leisure flying is merely the icing on the cake, core business point to point out of LCY is bread and butter and loads have by far the highest % of BA's elites per flight. There has been quite enough degrading of the existing product without a stupid rebrand to deal with.
Perhaps this is why Alex Cruz has gone to ground :p
 
0A340
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:07 pm

OA940 wrote:
0A340 wrote:
If I were Airbus, I would offer the A220 at 100% list price. Zero discount. Just for the gigs they are doing with the 737MAX.


And that's exactly why you're not working at Airbus. Because I'm fairly sure there has been no order in modern aviation history that was made at list price



I was hoping that you would get the pun embedded. In all seriousness, here is why I still believe this should be the 'ethical' and 'proper' attitude by Airbus.
(a) The A220 line cannot at this point produce fast enough to satisfy a large order book. Production is still slow, so going on an aggressive sales pitch without adequate production will not make sense. If you do it, it only makes sense to sell as close to list price as possible, make the most out of it. Why sell very close to your cost? This is not a well-developed line (like the A330 or the 320 lines are)...

(b) Yes, if Embraer gets wind that Airbus is not engage into a bloody sales campaign will do the same, or close to the same. I.e. not aggressively discount their offer.

(c) This is good for BOTH of them.

(d) the pun embedded:
Who loses? IAG. They want the 737, placing an order (still a LOI, hope it is a LOL LOI)? They can get the 737. They did not ask for an offer by Airbus. Let them do the same for the rest of their fleet acquisition.

just my € 0.02.
 
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Polot
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:32 pm

0A340 wrote:
...

(b) Yes, if Embraer gets wind that Airbus is not engage into a bloody sales campaign will do the same, or close to the same. I.e. not aggressively discount their offer.

???

If Embraer hears Airbus is not discounting they will continue to heavily discount to win high profile orders from the A220 (something the E2 needs right now), gain critical mass, and to make it harder for Airbus to gain market share when they decide to continue discounting again.

(d) the pun embedded:
Who loses? IAG. They want the 737, placing an order (still a LOI, hope it is a LOL LOI)? They can get the 737. They did not ask for an offer by Airbus. Let them do the same for the rest of their fleet acquisition.

IAG doesn’t lose-they still get cheap 737s. And IAG will gladly order more 737s, 787s, 777Xs over A320, A330, A350s if Airbus refuses to discount (because Boeing still will discount to take over EI/IBs fleet in a marketing coup).
 
vfw614
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:58 pm

Not sure what all the excitement about Crossrail is about. For short-hauls, Crossrail will change very little with regard to LHR's T5 compared to LCY. And as far as longhauls are concerned, were are talking about a maximum number of how many annual departing pax? Even with a full load every day, less than 10.000...
 
Lavdumper
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:13 pm

Everyone knows the A220-100 would offer Cityflyer a much more range-flexible and ergonomic/customer-friendly option than the E2. The challenges are finding the gate space for the bigger airframe and the clear transition costs associated with moving from the E-Jets to the A220. That said, the A220 offers a more compelling product for Cityflyer/BA. The E170/190/E2 cabin is not in the same class as the A220 cabin. If BA continues to emphasize customer experience as a competitive priority (as a part of their larger group branding/experience investment), and if it wants range flexibility that the A220-100 affords, the A220 "should" be the natural choice for the future fleet - despite the initial challenges the transition presents. IMO, the E2 would be the easy, but not the right, choice for the replacement considering BA's future ambitions for Cityflyer. Matching Swiss's quality A220 offering out of LCY should be the minimum goal going forward.
 
BAorNoWay
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:46 pm

Lavdumper wrote:
Everyone knows the A220-100 would offer Cityflyer a much more range-flexible and ergonomic/customer-friendly option than the E2. The challenges are finding the gate space for the bigger airframe and the clear transition costs associated with moving from the E-Jets to the A220. That said, the A220 offers a more compelling product for Cityflyer/BA. The E170/190/E2 cabin is not in the same class as the A220 cabin. If BA continues to emphasize customer experience as a competitive priority (as a part of their larger group branding/experience investment), and if it wants range flexibility that the A220-100 affords, the A220 "should" be the natural choice for the future fleet - despite the initial challenges the transition presents. IMO, the E2 would be the easy, but not the right, choice for the replacement considering BA's future ambitions for Cityflyer. Matching Swiss's quality A220 offering out of LCY should be the minimum goal going forward.


I have to agree with you, whilst the E2 seems like the easier choice to transition to due to the existing fleet, I don't think we can underestimate the better performance and cabin interior options provided by the A220. It is also likely that Airbus have a few slots still held back for an important customer like BA too, so they could be slotted into the production line.

In addition, we are all probably making too much about how difficult it would be to change aircraft type. BA CityFlyer wouldn't be receiving all the aircraft over night, the delivery schedule would be gradual, therefore they could train pilots and cabin crew at a much slower rate (as was the case historically when they upgraded from the RJ to the Embraer).

Many of the previous commentators have mentioned about stand capacity at City being an issue. This will not be so much of an issue in the next couple of years as the airport is currently building 7-8 additional aircraft stands and then reconfiguring the existing stands as part of the airport development plan. I would imagine that the aircraft would be arriving to coincide with the development of the airport, which is due to be completed around 2023. Therefore, they would like operate a mixed fleet at the beginning and slowly transition over to the new aircraft. Delivery would probably begin in 2021/2022 and go on for two to three years. LCY will greatly increase its capacity, firstly with the completion of the parallel taxiway that will be completed in the next year or so (freeing up stand capacity) and further more with the additional stands. In addition, if the airline purchases the A220, the sector length of some aircraft is likely to increase due the aircraft's range performance, which was recently highlighted in the updated version of the London City Airport Master Development Plan, see the route map in the document below (Slide 42):

https://downloads.ctfassets.net/ggj4kbqgcch2/3Qtm9y6I1jULZeCWZbkHAv/d991f956090615113bc9109ce9c8bf9d/p01-85_LCY_MP_Final_Reduced.pdf
 
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lightsaber
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Re: IAG deciding between A220 and Embraer E2 for BA Cityflyer

Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:06 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
IMHO, getting the software code bases common is a big part of the effort so there is only one code base, with modified configuration files, as much as possible.


I'm not sure what you mean - what code base exactly?

FADEC?
FCS?
Diagnostics?
Avionics?

It is not as if airlines "maintain" software code on the aircraft anyway - it is very access restricted for the express purpose of preventing inadvertent tinkering with it.

I agree that installing updates can be a pain in the... but its much easier now than it was 15 years ago. Even 10 years ago.

The aircraft provider updates software regularly.
Predictive maintenance is the big one. Who doesn't love a 40% decrease in line maintenance? I estimate it took the 787 until the 8th build. Other software gets annual updates. For example, the wing droop, flap speeds, and other flight controls are tuned to reduce fuel burn and maintenance. FADAC software is a bigger deal to upgrade, but the 2nd PiP on the V2500 was a pure software PiP to extend maintenance intervals and a small reduction in fuel burn.

Only the 787, MAX, A320NEO (some old CEO too), A330NEO, A350 NEO, A220, E2, and MRJ even have the avionics to run the software I'm discussing.

Haven't you ever upgraded the software in you automobile? I was amazed how much better it made my car run (1 mpg better fuel economy too). Tesla's are the extreme example.

Technology is becoming software and only the newest machines can run it.

Why would Boeing have two sets of software for flap settings for fuel economy and minimizing maintenance. Update one code base and be done with it.

The 787 maintenance burden drops every update to the avionics software. The same is true of the Airbus products. A GE (or CFM) engine runs so much maintenance prediction software it is mind boggling. But also a marketing advantage.

Lightsaber
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