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ElroyJetson
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What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:09 am

There have been multiple media reports regarding NZ recent commitment to purchase eight 787-10 aircraft from Boeing. NZ is stating that after intensive discussion with Boeing they feel the 787-10 can fly any existing 77E route In their network. The statement suggests Boeing has made upgrades to both the 789 and 787-10. Keep in mind that NZ has the 77E currently flying AKL-IAH which is 6448 nm, and also flying AKL- YVR at 6181 nm. If the 787-10 can truly fly these missions that would be a significant upgrade.

Credible media reports are stating Boeing is increasing the 787-10's MTOW by six tons. If true, this would make the 787-10 a true 14 hour plane.

So if Boeing is able to boost payload/range performance for the 787-10 to match the 77E what are the implications for the A359 which has been marketed as a direct 77E replacement?

Do the rumored 787-10 upgrades seriously encroach on the A 359? Is there a place for both frames as a 77E replacement?
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LAX772LR
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:16 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
Do the rumored 787-10 upgrades seriously encroach on the A 359? Is there a place for both frames as a 77E replacement?

Yes.

The 78X might poach off some orders on the lower end of the 77E's performance/capacity spectrum, but it could do that now, even without an increased range... it's still an aircraft that can cross the northern Pacific or fly from the west coast of N.Am to western Europe.

A359 can either fill the aforementioned role as a cargo monster, or turn around and do an 17hr flight to SIN while still carrying a profit-potential payload, even without -ULR modification.
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ElroyJetson
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:28 am

LAX772LR wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Do the rumored 787-10 upgrades seriously encroach on the A 359? Is there a place for both frames as a 77E replacement?

Yes.

The 78X might poach off some orders on the lower end of the 77E's performance/capacity spectrum, but it could do that now, even without an increased range... it's still an aircraft that can cross the northern Pacific or fly from the west coast of N.Am to western Europe.

A359 can either fill the aforementioned role as a cargo monster, or turn around and do an 17hr flight to SIN while still carrying a profit-potential payload, even without -ULR modification.



I agree with you there is a place for both aircraft as 77E replacements. But I wonder if a more capable 787-10 can eat into future A359 sales. Do you really need to carry around 7% more structural weight per passenger for a few potential ULH flights? It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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Jefford717
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:46 am

If the rumors are true it could bring a lot of sales and could potentially sway swing operators to buy the 787-10 instead of the A359. Many here on Anet believe that the current 787-10 has very close payload range to that of the 268t A359 so the improve -10 available starting 2022 could pretty much do most of the A359 missions; realistically speaking, most operators do not use their aircrafts full capability (often times they don’t takeoff at MTOW which could favor the lighter, higher capacity -10 (-10 is about 10 feet longer than A359 from door 1 to door 4 so about 10-30 passengers more in favor of the 787)).

I am fully aware that OEM has a very strict contract to airlines when canceling commitments. I am in no way saying that many operators who has an order for the A359 will all of a sudden cancel orders in favor of the 787. Also it is very common that airlines place an order for a type mainly on availability (classic example here on Anet is a346 over 77W). If rumors are true, I do believe that airlines who operates both type will likely select the 787 for top up orders or exercise options for -10.

This news might be what Boeing needs after a difficult start of the year 2019.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:52 am

Quite a lot of assumptions based on a comment from a single airline, but that is par for the course with you.

If we believe the 787 vs A359 range thread in tech ops, then we see that the 789's fuel burn vs the A359 narrows/diminishes at longer ranges. The 78X will burn more fuel than the 789 (overall, not per passenger), so it's entirely possible that the A359 will still hold an edge on the very longest flights. Would a potential 6T increase narrow the business case? Sure. Will the A359 still sell? It sells on its ability to fly ULH routes with a lot of cargo, with that comes a lot of flexibility. It'll still have a wide appeal to airlines and will continue to sell quite well. The A359 has long surpassed the 77E's sales, it's carved out its own place and found homes at airlines that didn't have 77Es before, so not really a question of replacement apart from a few cases.

Extra structure doesn't necessarily mean greater fuel efficiency/CASM, and any range increase could entirely come with a fuel burn penalty that narrows any efficiency gap with the A359 anyway

Lovely way to start another A vs B thread with a loaded question, yet again clearly intended to get some bites/opportunities for gloating.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:52 am

We still don’t know for sure what changes have occurred to the 787-10, so it’s a bit early to say what it could do.

The reality is that the -10 has not exactly been a huge seller, just as the -1000 model hasn’t achieved huge orders yet for Airbus.

The A350-900 also continues to evolve and become even more capable, so potential comparisons aren’t exactly easy to do.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:08 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
There have been multiple media reports regarding NZ recent commitment to purchase eight 787-10 aircraft from Boeing. NZ is stating that after intensive discussion with Boeing they feel the 787-10 can fly any existing 77E route In their network. The statement suggests Boeing has made upgrades to both the 789 and 787-10. Keep in mind that NZ has the 77E currently flying AKL-IAH which is 6448 nm, and also flying AKL- YVR at 6181 nm. If the 787-10 can truly fly these missions that would be a significant upgrade.

Credible media reports are stating Boeing is increasing the 787-10's MTOW by six tons. If true, this would make the 787-10 a true 14 hour plane.

So if Boeing is able to boost payload/range performance for the 787-10 to match the 77E what are the implications for the A359 which has been marketed as a direct 77E replacement?

Do the rumored 787-10 upgrades seriously encroach on the A 359? Is there a place for both frames as a 77E replacement?


I just wrote a piece (in Korean, lol) about this opportunity as well. A 260T MTOW 787-10 can do Northeast Asia-US West Coast very comfortably.
Previously Korean Air CEO Walter Cho said he wouldn't buy 787-10 b/c it couldn't do LAX-ICN. Probably he had some cargos in mind. But with the MTOW increase, it can definitely can even with cargos.

787-10 can't probably do AKL-IAH-AKL with enough cargos though.
ANZ 772 did IAH-AKL with 240 pax (77% L/F) with 5.9t cargo with 58t available payload on November 2018. AKL-IAH, same load factor but 8.6t cargo.
This is too much of a stretch for 787-10 and probably A350-900 can still hold its place.

But most of the routes are shorter than this, and that's where it can be a serious contender for A359.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:13 am

All interesting speculation but I haven’t seen any official press releases from
Boeing on a MGTOW boost


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aryonoco
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:23 am

Let's wait until there is something official out before speculating about what this hypothetical MTOW increase means for the A359.

Both frames are new clean sheet designs. Both will receive updates and evolve for decades to come.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:45 am

The B78X will benefit from a MTOW increase? Yes
Does it decreases the gap when compared to the A359? Yes
Does it means that every Airline Company in the world will buy it? No
Can a B78X and a A350 co exist in the same Airline Company? Yes
With this supposed MTOW increase on the B78X will we see in the future more Airlines operating both types? I really think yes
Last edited by AECM on Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:46 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
There have been multiple media reports regarding NZ recent commitment to purchase eight 787-10 aircraft from Boeing. NZ is stating that after intensive discussion with Boeing they feel the 787-10 can fly any existing 77E route In their network. The statement suggests Boeing has made upgrades to both the 789 and 787-10. Keep in mind that NZ has the 77E currently flying AKL-IAH which is 6448 nm, and also flying AKL- YVR at 6181 nm. If the 787-10 can truly fly these missions that would be a significant upgrade.

Credible media reports are stating Boeing is increasing the 787-10's MTOW by six tons. If true, this would make the 787-10 a true 14 hour plane.

So if Boeing is able to boost payload/range performance for the 787-10 to match the 77E what are the implications for the A359 which has been marketed as a direct 77E replacement?

Do the rumored 787-10 upgrades seriously encroach on the A 359? Is there a place for both frames as a 77E replacement?



NZ didn’t say that, they said the 78J could fly similar missions to the 77E not all missions, IAH seems stretch, I’d be surprised if they are looking at the 78J even with the MTOW increase for anything other than LAX/SFO.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:22 am

Just a reminder to debate the topic without provoking other users with the name calling and flamebait, if it continues the thread will be locked
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:41 am

I thought the 787 landing equipment is already maxed out!
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:49 am

sadiqutp wrote:
I thought the 787 landing equipment is already maxed out!



That's my understanding too...the landing gear it seems can take no more.

But if it is at all possible, remains the fact that 6 tons is huge...assuming that it would all go into fuel to prolong range, where is that extra fuel storage space going to come from? From my understanding the wing box is substantially full already...where are you going to store that 6T of fuel then?

If it can be done with 6T of extra fuel, the 787-10 would IMHO seriously reduce the A359's appeal...


Faro
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:16 am

What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Nothing business as usual!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:20 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
There have been multiple media reports regarding NZ recent commitment to purchase eight 787-10 aircraft from Boeing.


Where are these links and quotes from media reports to demonstrate the existence of such news ? We know John has a paid subscription on his website to get access to his blog, where are these media reports ?

If such news is true, assuming 6 tonnes more fuel ONLY equates to about 350 nm more range. Boeing quotes they design range of 6430 nm, that would change it to 6780 nm, still about 1000 nm short of a 268 tonne A350-900.

Jefford717 wrote:
IMany here on Anet believe that the current 787-10 has very close payload range to that of the 268t A359 so the improve -10 available starting 2022 could pretty much do most of the A359 missions;


The payload range of the 787-10 is well behind the A350-900. In this thread regarding SQ possibility of operating SIN-YVR had this quote of the 787-10 currently flying the TLV-EWR flight. (Which appears to be the longest regular 787-10:flight people mention, I heard Stitch mention another, when I looked at it it was regularly a smaller 787).

From viewtopic.php?t=1422657

“Take for example today's 5/29/2019 UA85 TLV-EWR flight the MTOG for the 78X is 560,000 today's TOG was 559,235. Now before you said I told you so lets take a look at what is on that aircraft. First and foremost the aircraft went out full with 318 passengers and 326 bags and 26,089 pounds of cargo. Lets break it all down the OEW is 300,563 the weight of all 318 passengers is 60,903, the weight of their 326 bags is 9780 pounds and there was 26,089 pounds of cargo add those number together we get a ZFW of 397,335 out of a MXFW of 425,000. The cleared fuel was 161,900 so when you add the cleared fuel to the ZFW you get a TOG of 559,235.

The block time for UA85 is 11 hours 9 minutes”

So on a 12 hr sector the 787-10 lifts a total payload of 43.9 tonnes. The A350-900 will lift about 60 tonnes payload over the same flight time. To put this is perspective the A350-900 can do AKL- JFK without even needing MTOW. The 787-10 with the 6 tonne increase would have that sort of payload range for NZ24 AKL-YVR which is 12:50.

Increasing the TOW on the 787-10 will only result in something like another 45 minutes of range, it will burn about 2 tonnes of the 6 tonnes to carry it 12 hours.
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:27 am

Faro wrote:
If it can be done with 6T of extra fuel, the 787-10 would IMHO seriously reduce the A359's appeal...

IMHO it will also reduce the appeal of the 789 for those airlines which don’t need the max. range of the 789. Unfortunately the OP only focussed at the A359 (for obvious reasons), but a more capable 78X will also have some consequences for the 789.
And maybe it will trigger Airbus to develop a lightweight A358 and/or a lighter A359.
Interesting times ahead
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:43 am

MrHMSH wrote:

Quite a lot of assumptions based on a comment from a single airline, but that is par for the course with you.

If we believe the 787 vs A359 range thread in tech ops, then we see that the 789's fuel burn vs the A359 narrows/diminishes at longer ranges. The 78X will burn more fuel than the 789 (overall, not per passenger).


Yes, but the advantage of the 787-10 is more passenger than the 787-9 / A350-900. So, do not subtract a feature of the 787-10 all its own to give you an argument that has no place here ...

More passenger, generates more revenue!

MrHMSH wrote:
So it's entirely possible that the A359 will still hold an edge on the very longest flights.


Possible is not a certainty.
We must be sure!
But I'm kidding with you, the A350-900 certainly does it! :yes:

MrHMSH wrote:
Extra structure doesn't necessarily mean greater fuel efficiency/CASM, and any range increase could entirely come with a fuel burn penalty that narrows any efficiency gap with the A359 anyway


Hummm,

I am not very convinced by your explanation. :shakehead:
Many think the opposite.
Show us with facts please...

MrHMSH wrote:
Lovely way to start another A vs B thread with a loaded question, yet again clearly intended to get some bites/opportunities for gloating.


Indeed it will not be necessary!

But ElroyJetson never said that the 787-10 will kill the A350-900. He only said that the first will eat a little bit on the second.

It certainly means that the 787-10 will gain a little more order every year and that the A350-900 will certainly continue to win orders

MrHMSH wrote:
The A359 has long surpassed the 77E's sales, it's carved out its own place and found homes at airlines that didn't have 77Es before, so not really a question of replacement apart from a few cases.


This part is clearly useless. The 777-200ER was launched almost 3 decades ago. Not the same market context. But despite all the 777-2ER is the version that sold the most after the 777-300ER. You said that certainly because you wanted to gloat your turn ... :old:
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:49 am

why 773ER sold much more than 772ER and now 781/351 not outsell smaller version?
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:52 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
why 773ER sold much more than 772ER and now 781/351 not outsell smaller version?


Still early in the for the 77W replacement cycle for many carriers, 787s/A350s are mainly replacing earlier A330/A340/767/777 aircraft.
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:08 am

marcelh wrote:
IMHO it will also reduce the appeal of the 789 for those airlines which don’t need the max. range of the 789. Unfortunately the OP only focussed at the A359 (for obvious reasons), but a more capable 78X will also have some consequences for the 789.

Yes, Boeing had to segment the B788/789/78X so that they do not compete with one another. A more capable B78X will certainly impact the B789's orders too. I would imagine that the version ANZ is getting is just a limited production run made for ANZ, much like the A359ULR was made for SQ. The cost of modifications is small and did not need a big order to get them built.
Last edited by flee on Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:09 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ didn’t say that, they said the 78J could fly similar missions to the 77E not all missions, IAH seems stretch, I’d be surprised if they are looking at the 78J even with the MTOW increase for anything other than LAX/SFO.


I agree with you. As I see it, the 787-10 will do LAX/SFO (as well as PVG/HKG/HND), with the 787-9 doing YVR/IAH/ORD and eventually JFK (as well as South America).

It makes more sense from the perspective of a long-term fragmentation trend, and from a network-value trend.

The 787-10 doesn't need to be exactly as long-ranged at the 777-200ER in order to be an exceptionally efficient and capable plane or to be the replacement for most 777-200ERs.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:13 am

Faro wrote:
sadiqutp wrote:
I thought the 787 landing equipment is already maxed out!



That's my understanding too...the landing gear it seems can take no more.

But if it is at all possible, remains the fact that 6 tons is huge...assuming that it would all go into fuel to prolong range, where is that extra fuel storage space going to come from? From my understanding the wing box is substantially full already...where are you going to store that 6T of fuel then?

If it can be done with 6T of extra fuel, the 787-10 would IMHO seriously reduce the A359's appeal...


Faro


Considering the stretch was 10 ft fwd & 8 foot aft. and they only added 2 fwd & 2 rear LD3's. that leaves them around 57" waste space fwd & about 34.6" in the aft hold for added fuel tanks. This is based on 60.4" depth of LD3 containers & 1" of spacing between them. Thats quite a bit of available space. Boeing already has ACT tanks that are less than the standard LD3 depth that could fit in when needed, without cargo volume loss in LD3 mode. Pallets could be a different issue as I don't know how they fit vs LD3's. But I would assume having one to fit a 28-30" space + fire insulation mats in the rear would offer better balance.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:17 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
why 773ER sold much more than 772ER and now 781/351 not outsell smaller version?


From my point of view
the A350-1000 was launched in 2007 and the 787-10 was launched only in 2013.

The A350-1000 is in the place between the 787-10 and 777-X in terms of seats.

Since I do not have a crystal ball, owners of the A350-900 may be turning to the A350-1000 if they need seat growth.

The problem is that there is no comunality in the A350-900 / -1000 combo ...
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:26 am

Checklist787 wrote:

Yes, but the advantage of the 787-10 is more passenger than the 787-9 / A350-900. So, do not subtract a feature of the 787-10 all its own to give you an argument that has no place here ...

More passenger, generates more revenue!


But at the longest ranges it carries less payload and the efficiency gap narrows/diminishes (if we believe the tech ops thread)

Possible is not a certainty.
We must be sure!
But I'm kidding with you, the A350-900 certainly does it! :yes:


Hummm,

I am not very convinced by your explanation. :shakehead:
Many think the opposite.
Show us with facts please...


According to said tech ops thread, the A359 burns less fuel than the 789 at certain ranges at payloads. The 78X will burn more fuel than the A359 despite the latter having more structure. It's also claimed by Boeing that the 777X has better CASM than the A350, as it has to, otherwise it simply wouldn't sell. The 777X has more structure than the A350 (-900 obviously but the -1000 as well). Not a given that the lighter aircraft burns less fuel.

Indeed it will not be necessary!

But ElroyJetson never said that the 787-10 will kill the A350-900. He only said that the first will eat a little bit on the second.

It certainly means that the 787-10 will gain a little more order every year and that the A350-900 will certainly continue to win orders


No, but he has heavily implied that the A350 would be hampered and largely passed over by the market with a 78X MTOW increase. It's a loaded question, and some similar threads have been opened by him in the past.

This part is clearly useless. The 777-200ER was launched almost 3 decades ago. Not the same market context. But despite all the 777-2ER is the version that sold the most after the 777-300ER. You said that certainly because you wanted to gloat your turn ... :old:


The question was specifically asked about 77E replacement:

So if Boeing is able to boost payload/range performance for the 787-10 to match the 77E what are the implications for the A359 which has been marketed as a direct 77E replacement?


To which my answer is that the A359 has expanded its market well beyond this replacement segment.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:27 am

Checklist787 wrote:
Armadillo1 wrote:
why 773ER sold much more than 772ER and now 781/351 not outsell smaller version?


From my point of view
the A350-1000 was launched in 2007 and the 787-10 was launched only in 2013.

The A350-1000 is in the place between the 787-10 and 777-X in terms of seats.

Since I do not have a crystal ball, owners of the A350-900 may be turning to the A350-1000 if they need seat growth.

The problem is that there is no comunality in the A350-900 / -1000 combo ...


No commonality? That's absolutely and utterly inaccurate, and I'm not sure what you've seen/read that makes you say that?
 
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zeke
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:37 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ didn’t say that, they said the 78J could fly similar missions to the 77E not all missions, IAH seems stretch, I’d be surprised if they are looking at the 78J even with the MTOW increase for anything other than LAX/SFO.


I agree with you. As I see it, the 787-10 will do LAX/SFO (as well as PVG/HKG/HND), with the 787-9 doing YVR/IAH/ORD and eventually JFK (as well as South America).


NZ said they will use the 787-10 to the east coast USA and Asia, they didn’t mention IAD or JFK. I assume the 787-10 would be able to do the AKL-LAX-LHR as well. They also said they will be keeping the 77E for some time yet.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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AECM
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:40 am

I was under the impression that NZ will use GE powered B789 for New York and with a new Cabin Layout more similar to the one of Qantas
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:55 am

marcelh wrote:
Faro wrote:
If it can be done with 6T of extra fuel, the 787-10 would IMHO seriously reduce the A359's appeal...

IMHO it will also reduce the appeal of the 789 for those airlines which don’t need the max. range of the 789. Unfortunately the OP only focussed at the A359 (for obvious reasons), but a more capable 78X will also have some consequences for the 789.

Boeing would be perfectly fine with that, considering they can charge higher prices/get higher margins for the 787-10 and the money is still in their pocket.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:01 am

Polot wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Faro wrote:
If it can be done with 6T of extra fuel, the 787-10 would IMHO seriously reduce the A359's appeal...

IMHO it will also reduce the appeal of the 789 for those airlines which don’t need the max. range of the 789. Unfortunately the OP only focussed at the A359 (for obvious reasons), but a more capable 78X will also have some consequences for the 789.

Boeing would be perfectly fine with that, considering they can charge higher prices/get higher margins for the 787-10 and the money is still in their pocket.

I know. But they need to fill a lot of production slots and it won’t help when customers are swapping orders.
 
Motorhussy
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:04 am

Air NZ has NOT said the 78X/J/1 or whatever the -10 is called can do all the existing 77E routes for them. It will not be able to do YVR, IAH, ORD to NZ’s spec. The airline has said it will use them on Asia routes and W Coast US.

Stop spreading misinformation.
come visit the south pacific
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:05 am

marcelh wrote:
Polot wrote:
marcelh wrote:
IMHO it will also reduce the appeal of the 789 for those airlines which don’t need the max. range of the 789. Unfortunately the OP only focussed at the A359 (for obvious reasons), but a more capable 78X will also have some consequences for the 789.

Boeing would be perfectly fine with that, considering they can charge higher prices/get higher margins for the 787-10 and the money is still in their pocket.

I know. But they need to fill a lot of production slots and it won’t help when customers are swapping orders.

As long as Boeing still has enough 788/789s to fill the Everett production line it doesn’t matter if the customers are swapping existing orders to the 787-10. Boeing can control the swapping by pricing.

If you are talking about airlines swapping instead of ordering new planes, then if they are swapping then they are also not growing as much because their fleet will be smaller. Which either means they will order more planes anyways or were not planning on ordering new planes anytime soon to begin with.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:14 am

Polot wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Polot wrote:
Boeing would be perfectly fine with that, considering they can charge higher prices/get higher margins for the 787-10 and the money is still in their pocket.

I know. But they need to fill a lot of production slots and it won’t help when customers are swapping orders.

As long as Boeing still has enough 788/789s to fill the Everett production line it doesn’t matter if the customers are swapping existing orders to the 787-10. Boeing can control the swapping by pricing.

If you are talking about airlines swapping instead of ordering new planes, then if they are swapping then they are also not growing as much because their fleet will be smaller. Which either means they will order more planes anyways or were not planning on ordering new planes anytime soon to begin with.


Fair point.

It costs nothing to the manufacturer

Especially since the 787-9 / -10 combo has a comunality (engines and wings) :yes:
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:20 am

marcelh wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
:rotfl: And you don’t? :spit:


Do not take your case for a generality. Show me a comment that proves my friend
:bigthumbsup:

Easy: your statement about the commonality between the A359 and A35K.


Sorry, but it's sadly true.

These are not the same wings or the same engines between the two versions since the CEO of Qatar Airways has ordered Airbus to make changes @ PAS'11

There will be no war here my friend
:white:
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:23 am

Checklist787 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

Do not take your case for a generality. Show me a comment that proves my friend
:bigthumbsup:

Easy: your statement about the commonality between the A359 and A35K.


Sorry, but it's sadly true.

These are not the same wings or the same engines between the two versions since the CEO of Qatar Airways has ordered Airbus to make changes @ PAS'11

There will be no war here my friend
:white:


Slightly different engines and a slightly different wing = no commonality? Since when?
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:25 am

Checklist787 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

Do not take your case for a generality. Show me a comment that proves my friend
:bigthumbsup:

Easy: your statement about the commonality between the A359 and A35K.


Sorry, but it's sadly true.

These are not the same wings or the same engines between the two versions since the CEO of Qatar Airways has ordered Airbus to make changes @ PAS'11

There will be no war here my friend
:white:

It’s important to distinguish between production commonality and operator commonality. The A359-A35K no doubt has less production commonality than the 789-78X, but commonality for the operator is similar. It is incorrect to say the A359-A35K have no commonality though.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:29 am

flee wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
flee wrote:
I would imagine that the version ANZ is getting is just a limited production run made for ANZ, much like the A359ULR was made for SQ. The cost of modifications is small and did not need a big order to get them built.

When you say one thing be sure do not use word "imagine!" There is no credit in what you say.
Unfounded and clumsy. :yes:

Do not create an A vs B showdown. The 787-10 has no modification to meet the airlines and has nothing to do with an A350-900 ULR. :shakehead:

This whole thread is about A vs B.

This whole thread is not based on facts - heck, Boeing has not even confirmed what ANZ stated.

Nothing said by the OP is fact.

So everyone is free to say what they feel, including you and me.

So, don't worry about being credible. Just have a good laugh and.......

Chill...


Air New Zealand keeps being quoted here without any actual quotes or citations. These are spurious claims being attributed to the airline as far as I can see. Links please people to where the airline has said the 787-10 will satisfy all 77E route replacements. The reality is they’re being replaced by the 789 as well.
come visit the south pacific
 
marcelh
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:41 am

Checklist787 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

Do not take your case for a generality. Show me a comment that proves my friend
:bigthumbsup:

Easy: your statement about the commonality between the A359 and A35K.


Sorry, but it's sadly true.

These are not the same wings or the same engines between the two versions since the CEO of Qatar Airways has ordered Airbus to make changes @ PAS'11

There will be no war here my friend
:white:

Commonality is more than just engines and wings, but I understand why you want to emphasise it.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:24 pm

It amazes me how conflicting every PIP has become. Boeing and Airbus constantly work PIPs.
Weight reduction is efficiency and an increase in fuel capacity. I do not know what Boeing promised NZ, but a new model such as the 787-10 (and A350) is early in weight reduction PIPs. Since this is also a 777 thread, I personally had friends work 14+ years on weight reduction PIPs/MTOW increases on that airframe which it's history clearly shows positive results. Because of the rushed EIS, there was a lot of improvement available in the 777. What can be done in a year pre EIS takes about 7 years post EIS in my opinion.

The 787-10 has weight I could remove and I'm not anywhere close to being an expert, but I have friends who are. I simply do not have as much direct insight into the A350, but a 3D printing vendor showed a team us us how to remove 500kg front the A350 and I quickly identified another 500kg just during one presentation.

I know everyone is waiting on 3D printing machines. There is currently a 30+ month wait for the big machines, if you pay a half million USD expedite fee. Add a year to 18 months for no fee. Note:. These are already $13 million USD machines, so only serious bidders need apply.

I recall Boeing outsourcing to a European vendor who wisely bought on speculation the small/mid size 3D printers. When I say large, I'm talking the machines for structure to replace aluminum assemblies with monolithic titanium parts.

MTOW increases I believe is possible, but only between airports with the best concrete. I personally work on the hardest/strongest concrete floors in the USA and dislike the foot pain, but it can be used in runways (it is amazing how much regular concrete flexes versus the stuff I walk on daily). So if the runway are built for it, I must assume NZ opperates from such, increase the tire loading.

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AA777223
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:44 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Do the rumored 787-10 upgrades seriously encroach on the A 359? Is there a place for both frames as a 77E replacement?

Yes.

The 78X might poach off some orders on the lower end of the 77E's performance/capacity spectrum, but it could do that now, even without an increased range... it's still an aircraft that can cross the northern Pacific or fly from the west coast of N.Am to western Europe.

A359 can either fill the aforementioned role as a cargo monster, or turn around and do an 17hr flight to SIN while still carrying a profit-potential payload, even without -ULR modification.



I agree with you there is a place for both aircraft as 77E replacements. But I wonder if a more capable 787-10 can eat into future A359 sales. Do you really need to carry around 7% more structural weight per passenger for a few potential ULH flights? It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Sounds like exactly the same argument we have heard regarding the A350-1000 vs the 77X...
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:04 pm

AA777223 wrote:
Sounds like exactly the same argument we have heard regarding the A350-1000 vs the 77X...


It is about double the difference between the A350-900 (1670 nm) vs the 787-10 and the A350-1000 vs the 777-9 (873).

Airbus list the A350-1000 with a range of 8400 nm, and Boeing has a range on the 777-9 of 7527 nm, a differance of 873 nm.
Airbus list the A350-900 with a range of 8100 nm and Boeing with a range on the 787-10 of 6430 nm., a difference of 1670 nm.

A 6 tonne increase in MTOW only puts a small dint in the 1670 nm difference (best part of 4 hrs flight time), they need to find more like 20-25 tonnes more TOW to reach that, good luck doing that on the current engines.
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Polot
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:12 pm

zeke wrote:
AA777223 wrote:
Sounds like exactly the same argument we have heard regarding the A350-1000 vs the 77X...


It is about double the difference between the A350-900 (1670 nm) vs the 787-10 and the A350-1000 vs the 777-9 (873).

Airbus list the A350-1000 with a range of 8400 nm, and Boeing has a range on the 777-9 of 7527 nm, a differance of 873 nm.
Airbus list the A350-900 with a range of 8100 nm and Boeing with a range on the 787-10 of 6430 nm., a difference of 1670 nm.

A 6 tonne increase in MTOW only puts a small dint in the 1670 nm difference (best part of 4 hrs flight time), they need to find more like 20-25 tonnes more TOW to reach that, good luck doing that on the current engines.

It’s a question of how many operators need that 1100 or whatever nm (after a 6 tone increase). Boeing doesn’t actually have to match A359 range to put a dent in A359 sales, just like Airbus didn’t have to match 77E range to beat it with later A333s (although I’m aware differences between A330 and 77E are more dramatic than what we are discussing).

Note I’m just talking general and not suggesting the 787-10ER or whatever will or will not have major effects on the A359.

A359/ 78X vs A35K/779 isn’t the best comparison though.
The 78X has less range than the A359, but is slightly larger to similar size and lighter or similar weight. The 779 may have less still air range than the A359 but it is clearly larger and heavier. Idk how quickly payload will fall off with the 779 va the A35K.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:16 pm

This is a useful change that will move some operators at the margin, particularly those who already operate 787s and have longstanding A350 orders but have never taken delivery of a single A350 frame... like UA (cough).
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:17 pm

Why invest now in a higher MTOW for the 787-10 at the expense of efficiency at high TOW (high spanwise loading) while in a few years a new engine will give you the same range when actually improving efficiency over virtually it's whole useful range bracket while the competition (A350-900) won't be benifit as much from the same SFC improvement because it's moving into ranges much fewer flights need in comparison.
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clickhappy
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:45 pm

zeke wrote:
Where are these links and quotes from media reports to demonstrate the existence of such news ?


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-secures-order-8-dreamliners-120412947.html

The order needs shareholder approval, due in September.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:05 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

Yes, but the advantage of the 787-10 is more passenger than the 787-9 / A350-900. So, do not subtract a feature of the 787-10 all its own to give you an argument that has no place here ...

More passenger, generates more revenue!


But at the longest ranges it carries less payload and the efficiency gap narrows/diminishes (if we believe the tech ops thread)

Possible is not a certainty.
We must be sure!
But I'm kidding with you, the A350-900 certainly does it! :yes:


Hummm,

I am not very convinced by your explanation. :shakehead:
Many think the opposite.
Show us with facts please...


According to said tech ops thread, the A359 burns less fuel than the 789 at certain ranges at payloads. The 78X will burn more fuel than the A359 despite the latter having more structure. It's also claimed by Boeing that the 777X has better CASM than the A350, as it has to, otherwise it simply wouldn't sell. The 777X has more structure than the A350 (-900 obviously but the -1000 as well). Not a given that the lighter aircraft burns less fuel.

Indeed it will not be necessary!

But ElroyJetson never said that the 787-10 will kill the A350-900. He only said that the first will eat a little bit on the second.

It certainly means that the 787-10 will gain a little more order every year and that the A350-900 will certainly continue to win orders


No, but he has heavily implied that the A350 would be hampered and largely passed over by the market with a 78X MTOW increase. It's a loaded question, and some similar threads have been opened by him in the past.

This part is clearly useless. The 777-200ER was launched almost 3 decades ago. Not the same market context. But despite all the 777-2ER is the version that sold the most after the 777-300ER. You said that certainly because you wanted to gloat your turn ... :old:


The question was specifically asked about 77E replacement:

So if Boeing is able to boost payload/range performance for the 787-10 to match the 77E what are the implications for the A359 which has been marketed as a direct 77E replacement?


To which my answer is that the A359 has expanded its market well beyond this replacement segment.





"heavily implied that the A350 would be hampered and largely passed over by the market with a 78X MTOW increase."


For the record I never said this nor implied it. That is completely false. Please quote me if you feel I am in error. If the 787-10 does get a 6T MTOW increase it could eat into some A359 sales, potentially in top off orders with carriers flying both aircraft. As I said, both aircraft obviously have a place. As the A359 was marketed as a direct 77E replacement I was questioning if the 787-10 with an increase in MTOW be a more viable replacement for the 77E. From reports it appears NZ thinks so. But both are great planes and I never implied otherwise.
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:19 pm

zeke wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ didn’t say that, they said the 78J could fly similar missions to the 77E not all missions, IAH seems stretch, I’d be surprised if they are looking at the 78J even with the MTOW increase for anything other than LAX/SFO.


I agree with you. As I see it, the 787-10 will do LAX/SFO (as well as PVG/HKG/HND), with the 787-9 doing YVR/IAH/ORD and eventually JFK (as well as South America).


NZ said they will use the 787-10 to the east coast USA and Asia, they didn’t mention IAD or JFK. I assume the 787-10 would be able to do the AKL-LAX-LHR as well. They also said they will be keeping the 77E for some time yet.




I agree. I never saw any statement from NZ saying they were planning to use the 787-10 on flights to JFK or IAD. I don't think a 6T increase MTOW would even get them close. An enhanced 789 could do it and that is the rumor. But right now....that's all it is.

However, a 6T increase in MTOW for a 787-10 could probably do AKL-IAH or AKL-YVR as Boeing has a brochure range for the current 787-10 at 6430 nm. AKL-IAH is 6444 nm. A 6T increase should get them there. We'll see.


And btw....an interesting article from Seeking Alpha with a direct quote from the NZ Chairman. And before anyone flames me because they hate Seeking Alpha....just read the article. :)


What plays a role here are the words from Air New Zealand Chief Executive Officer Christopher Luxon from Boeing's press release:

The 787-10 is longer and even more fuel efficient. However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.





https://seekingalpha.com/article/426825 ... r-surprise
Last edited by ElroyJetson on Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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majano
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:20 pm

clickhappy wrote:
zeke wrote:
Where are these links and quotes from media reports to demonstrate the existence of such news ?


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-secures-order-8-dreamliners-120412947.html

The order needs shareholder approval, due in September.

I take it you did not actually read / understand what Zeke was referring to with his statement. There is noting in your article that, even remotely, refers to his question. How is this relevant?
 
Checklist787
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:30 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

ElroyJetson never said that the 787-10 will kill the A350-900. He only said that the first will eat a little bit on the second.

It certainly means that the 787-10 will gain a little more order every year and that the A350-900 will certainly continue to win orders


No, but he has heavily implied that the A350 would be hampered and largely passed over by the market with a 78X MTOW increase. It's a loaded question, and some similar threads have been opened by him in the past.


Okay I grant you
Fair point!

Checklist787 wrote:
Yes, but the advantage of the 787-10 is more passenger than the 787-9 / A350-900. So, do not subtract a feature of the 787-10 all its own to give you an argument that has no place here ...

More passenger, generates more revenue!


MrHMSH wrote:
According to said tech ops thread, the A359 burns less fuel than the 789 at certain ranges at payloads. The 78X will burn more fuel than the A359 despite the latter having more structure. It's also claimed by Boeing that the 777X has better CASM than the A350, as it has to, otherwise it simply wouldn't sell. The 777X has more structure than the A350 (-900 obviously but the -1000 as well). Not a given that the lighter aircraft burns less fuel.


Your argument does not seem to reflect the reality because long-haul flights by the 787-9 (especially) have opened thousands point-to-point routes without being made by the A350-900.

My argument is supported by one highlight that the 787-9 single flight in very long routes by Qantas and United.
They have not ordered the A359

Checklist787 wrote:
This part is clearly useless. The 777-200ER was launched almost 3 decades ago. Not the same market context. But despite all the 777-2ER is the version that sold the most after the 777-300ER. You said that certainly because you wanted to gloat your turn ... :old:


MrHMSH wrote:
The question was specifically asked about 77E replacement:

So if Boeing is able to boost payload/range performance for the 787-10 to match the 77E what are the implications for the A359 which has been marketed as a direct 77E replacement?

To which my answer is that the A359 has expanded its market well beyond this replacement segment.


False.
No more than the 787-9 who is also the replacement of the 777-200ER.

The 789 / A359 are substitutes whose first outsold the second. Why do I have the strange feeling that you are using the 789 / 78J combo by comparing them with the A359 by extracting the weak points by putting them in situations facing the A359 and which are not true since unfounded.

The 789 / A359 are 77E proxyes and the A359 is not alone as you seem to make it look.

You have to be more realistic than that. :roll:

MIflyer12 wrote:
This is a useful change that will move some operators at the margin, particularly those who already operate 787s and have longstanding A350 orders but have never taken delivery of a single A350 frame... like UA (cough).

:checkmark:
Last edited by Checklist787 on Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Checklist787
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:45 pm

Polot wrote:
zeke wrote:
AA777223 wrote:
Sounds like exactly the same argument we have heard regarding the A350-1000 vs the 77X...


It is about double the difference between the A350-900 (1670 nm) vs the 787-10 and the A350-1000 vs the 777-9 (873).

Airbus list the A350-1000 with a range of 8400 nm, and Boeing has a range on the 777-9 of 7527 nm, a differance of 873 nm.
Airbus list the A350-900 with a range of 8100 nm and Boeing with a range on the 787-10 of 6430 nm., a difference of 1670 nm.

A 6 tonne increase in MTOW only puts a small dint in the 1670 nm difference (best part of 4 hrs flight time), they need to find more like 20-25 tonnes more TOW to reach that, good luck doing that on the current engines.

It’s a question of how many operators need that 1100 or whatever nm (after a 6 tone increase). Boeing doesn’t actually have to match A359 range to put a dent in A359 sales, just like Airbus didn’t have to match 77E range to beat it with later A333s (although I’m aware differences between A330 and 77E are more dramatic than what we are discussing).

Note I’m just talking general and not suggesting the 787-10ER or whatever will or will not have major effects on the A359.

A359/ 78X vs A35K/779 isn’t the best comparison though.
The 78X has less range than the A359, but is slightly larger to similar size and lighter or similar weight. The 779 may have less still air range than the A359 but it is clearly larger and heavier. Idk how quickly payload will fall off with the 779 va the A35K.


Strangely he does not mention 8700Nm design range of the 777-8X

Why that? :roll:

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