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Checklist787
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:54 am

keesje wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
90% of routes ... :roll:

One more time, who needs 50-55 t???
Answer : Very few airlines when you compared A330's VS A359 orders since 15 last years!


Checklist787, most A350 / 787 leave close to MTOW. You know the passenger load, fuel, OEW. The difference towards MTOW is cargo. So if you put in 300 passengers (30t) but can add 15t of cargo and still do that 12 hours flight with reserves, headwinds from a hot airport, that weighs in heavily for operators.


I agree about that.

The 789's and A359's do it but I do not understand why we condemn the 787-10 which targets the same market as the A333 / 339 which is bigger?

How Boeing and Airbus would be stupid for launching the 787-10 and A333 / 339??
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xwb565
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:04 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
90% of routes ... :roll:

One more time, who needs 50-55 t???
Answer : Very few airlines when you compared A330's VS A359 orders since 15 last years!


Checklist787, most A350 / 787 leave close to MTOW. You know the passenger load, fuel, OEW. The difference towards MTOW is cargo. So if you put in 300 passengers (30t) but can add 15t of cargo and still do that 12 hours flight with reserves, headwinds from a hot airport, that weighs in heavily for operators.


I agree about that.

The 789's and A359's do it but I do not understand why we condemn the 787-10 which targets the same market as the A333 / 339 which is bigger?

How Boeing and Airbus would be stupid for launching the 787-10 and A333 / 339??


I am not sure anybody here has condemned the 787-10. The additional 6 tons mtow just has no relevance for the a350-900.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:10 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Dupli wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

... And there are many operators who have used more A330 since the launch of the A350-900.

And as the 787-10 is getting closer to the design range of the A330-300/-900's

The 787-10 is certainly between the 777-200ER and A330-300 / -900 in range today

So, I see a potential market of 1,200 aircrafts for the 787-10 in the next 20 years for 90% of routes ... :roll:

One more time, who needs 50-55 t???
Answer : Very few airlines when you compared A330's VS A359 orders since 15 last years!

My conclusion is that the A350-900 will slow down in terms of orders (we are already seeing it today) while the 787-10 orders grows as it anticipates clearly the future market needs :roll:


I can't follow your logic.

Either the market is not there, and both will not sell. Either the market is there and both will sell.

Unless you assume the a350 is vastly different (or inferior) to the 787. Is that what your are saying? Where is the proof?


Your question is relevant.

The reason is that the 787 is more in the A330s class than the A350's / 777's class

The A330 has a lower range than the A359 / 789 and 772ER while the 787-10 rather join the A333 / 339 lower range

There is nothing to say that the 787-10 will not satisfy a replacement and growth market in the next 20 years

Believing the opposite is simply unthinkable... :duck:

Just as the A339 is selling better with 7000nm range, so will the 787-10. IMHO 7200nm, reachable next engine PIP, is the tipping point for EU to Asia, Australia to US, and for heavy cargo mid range routes such as my prior example of US West coast to EU. But India to UK is in the same boat.

Now for Boeing to sell these planes.

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ewt340
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:12 pm

Here is the thing though. If any airlines doesn't operate any B787 then it wouldn't really enticed them that much. But if the airlines uses other version of B787 then you know it's a big win for them.

But the range would probably came closer to A330-200's range at lower end 7000nmi.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:14 pm

A lot of arguing that NZ's comments mean they must be replacing all their 772ER routes with 78Xs when they used the word "similar"

It seems overwhelmingly obvious to me that this is not inferring they think the 78X can do AKL-IAH-AKL - it is a fine plane but that is ULH and not realistic. Fairly clear in my mind that Houston will go 789 or 77W when the 77Es are retired - assuming it is still operating.

I think we need to keep things real here guys - a 6 tonne MTOW bump for the 78X radically improves its payload / range capability and is a technical marvel in its own right which any aviation fan of any persuasion should and I'm sure is very impressed by. It is fantastic. What it is not is enough to turn the 78X into an ULH range monster that dominates on 14-15hr sectors with a bellyful of cargo. It isn't a 778X or A359, or indeed 789 - that is simply not its game.

Where it excels (and I mean absolutely EXCELS) is 7-9 hour sectors with a belly full of cargo and a full cabin. As a transatlantic, Asia - Aus/NZ and Europe - MEG/India workhorse it will be incredibly tough to beat. Unparalleled efficiency. Truly amazing.

But lets not pretend that it suddenly will have MEG-US West Coast or SIN/KUL - Europe sort of legs with a full belly etc. That is A359/789/77X/A388 sort of territory.

What we can probably say (well I can anyway, this is A-net, there will always be someone who disagrees hahaha) is that on its "home field" ie: at the shorter end of the long-haul spectrum of flights with a full belly, it will be the standard by which CASM is judged for the next ten years, in the same way the A388 was for the last ten years.
 
Antarius
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:24 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I think we need to keep things real here guys - a 6 tonne MTOW bump for the 78X radically improves its payload / range capability and is a technical marvel in its own right which any aviation fan of any persuasion should and I'm sure is very impressed by. It is fantastic. What it is not is enough to turn the 78X into an ULH range monster that dominates on 14-15hr sectors with a bellyful of cargo. It isn't a 778X or A359, or indeed 789 - that is simply not its game.


No one has made this claim though. The original question was about how the MTOW increase may cut into the market of other aircraft on the lower end of range needs. The 78J is not and will not be a ULH aircraft staple.

No different than debating whether the A220-300 has eaten into a segment of the a319neo market.
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zeke
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:34 pm

Antarius wrote:
No one has made this claim though. The original question was about how the MTOW increase may cut into the market of other aircraft on the lower end of range needs. The 78J is not and will not be a ULH aircraft staple.


Are we talking about the same OP for this thread ?

ElroyJetson wrote:
There have been multiple media reports regarding NZ recent commitment to purchase eight 787-10 aircraft from Boeing. NZ is stating that after intensive discussion with Boeing they feel the 787-10 can fly any existing 77E route In their network. The statement suggests Boeing has made upgrades to both the 789 and 787-10. Keep in mind that NZ has the 77E currently flying AKL-IAH which is 6448 nm, and also flying AKL- YVR at 6181 nm. If the 787-10 can truly fly these missions that would be a significant upgrade.

So if Boeing is able to boost payload/range performance for the 787-10 to match the 77E what are the implications for the A359 which has been marketed as a direct 77E replacement?
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musman9853
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:11 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Quite a lot of assumptions based on a comment from a single airline, but that is par for the course with you.

If we believe the 787 vs A359 range thread in tech ops, then we see that the 789's fuel burn vs the A359 narrows/diminishes at longer ranges. The 78X will burn more fuel than the 789 (overall, not per passenger), so it's entirely possible that the A359 will still hold an edge on the very longest flights.


that's all well and good, but the vast majority of routes aren't ULH monsters than need the a350/777x.


No, but the A350 can carry a full payload pretty far, and that will be useful for a lot of airlines flying it/planning to fly it. The A350 is used on quite a few shorter routes and airlines are very happy with it.


oh absolutley. but i think there's a valid argument to be made that this mtwo bump for the 78J could start stepping on the a350's toes a bit.
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VV
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:51 pm

As a conclusion, to the question, "What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A350-900 and A350-1000" the answer would be, "Not much."

However we have just noticed that Boeing and GE are willing to do an effort to win certain campaigns like ANZ.

It is a sign 787-10 is being pushed harder now.
The rumored MTOW increase is not game changing. Boeing's willingness to push 787-10 to the market is the important thing.

We should expect more orders this year.
 
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:55 pm

There is an ineffable quality about planes which I call 'bones'. (engineers could explain some of it, but not all). Planes tend to grow as big and as capable as their bones allow. 737/320s have astounding bones, and carry huge numbers of passengers with a variety of frequency and ranges. As well their niches are numerous. The 300,340 & 757, 767 were good planes, but the bones did not allow that sort of growth and popularity. The 330 and 777 have been, in their prime, phenomenal. The 380 unfortunately as built had poor bones. Boeing and Airbus obviously would like all of their planes to have good bones. There are high hopes for each model. But reality strikes as the plane itself, the market niche it develops, the engines that propel it are all evolve. So is an earth of 24K circumference and tectonic plates mostly in the northern hemisphere. And certain population, technology, and industrial centers.

This thread discusses what sorts of bones the 787/350 have and what sort of capabilities are going to be found as the two plane's various models are pipped, improved, find routes, efficiencies and niches. Per this thread, the 787 10 is looking like it might be a pretty formidable model. And Airbus is looking at their 9 and 10 and doing similar things.
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ElroyJetson
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:34 pm

zeke wrote:
VV wrote:
ANZ decided to take the 787-10 because it can do almost all 777-200ER's missions at ANZ with a much-much better economics.


No they said "787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet".

Notice how they said meet our network needs first ?

While the 787-10 will be capable of operating to North America with payloads below the specification design payload (330 passengers and bags only, no cargo), I see their real use being to free up 787-9s from other routes and deploying the 787-9s elsewhere across the network. There is no need or justification to send a 787-10 long haul regularly where it is carrying around empty seats where a 787-9 could do the route with the limited 787-10 payload plus cargo and does not need to carry around the extra empty fuselage.

There may well be seasonal loads as well, where the 787-10 can do North America with a tailwind with good pax and cargo, and doesn't have a high passenger load on the return leg.

I have said from the outset I think NZ would go with the 787-8/1/10, it made no sense to add a small subfleet of A350s when they already had 13 787-9s. But people like yourself are taking this way out of proportion to suggest the 787-10 has turned into a genuine long haul aircraft. Sure it can do some long haul sectors, but it will not ne very flexible.

VV wrote:
It is all written in their press release and also in the press article below.
https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... 0er-fleet/


I have read that article several times now, it has nothing new to offer anyone, it is the same information that was in Flight Global after the order was announced.

Checklist787 wrote:
Who needs 50-55 t ???


Thats the sort of capability you need to be able to lift around 250-300 pax and 20 tonnes of freight.

marcelh wrote:
The 78X is efficient when you can fill the seats. Otherwise, the 789 is a better choice.


My analysis is this is passenger revenue driven. Even on a shorter route like AKL-HKG the 789 will lift more payload than the 78X.

I ran some flight plans with todays conditions, maximum payload over YVR-AKL and AKL-HKG

YVR-AKL,Payload,Trip Fuel

A350-900,50.1,81.7
B787-10,30.9,74.2
B787-9,37.3,74.2
B777-200ER,44.5,96.1


AKK-HKG,Payload,

A350-900,60.7,65.5
B787-10,48,61.8
B787-9,50.9,60.8
B777-200ER,58.6,77.6

VV wrote:
[For instance, I am prety sure Singapore Airlines does not bother requesting the rumored higher MTOW because they already have A350-900 along with their 787-10.


SQ do not have crew rests in the 787-10s, like the Jetstar 787s mentioned earlier, the operational limitation of their aircraft is the human flight time limitations.

Checklist787 wrote:
One more time, who needs 50-55 t???
Answer : Very few airlines when you compared A330's VS A359 orders since 15 last years!


Cargo pallets normally weight around 6 tonnes in my experience with general freight. An A330 would have around 200-250 passengers with 3 pallets, giving around 40 tonnes payload. The A350-900 would also be 250-300 pax with 3-4 pallets, around 50 tonnes.




Thanks for the payload range numbers for the various aircraft in this discussion. Freight is nice but the bulk of revenue is pax driven. Per your numbers the 787-10 with a 48T payload will have a 6% lower trip fuel cost than an A 359 carrying 60T of payload from AKL- HKG.

So this will be the decision for airlines. Do you need the extra payload capacity? I am sure for some carriers that are big in the freight market (LH comes to mind), the extra capacity is wanted and needed. Others not so much. The fact one plane can carry more payload is clearly not always the deciding factor or the 77L would have sold 1500 copies.

Both planes are excellent at what they do. As many have said, it is down to which frame best meets the needs of the individual airline.

I do think any PIP to the 787-10 which is already an amazing efficient aircraft will only help sales.
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Re: What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A359?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:36 pm

VV wrote:
As a conclusion, to the question, "What does the Rumored 6T MTOW Increase for the 787-10 Mean for the A350-900 and A350-1000" the answer would be, "Not much."

However we have just noticed that Boeing and GE are willing to do an effort to win certain campaigns like ANZ.

It is a sign 787-10 is being pushed harder now.
The rumored MTOW increase is not game changing. Boeing's willingness to push 787-10 to the market is the important thing.

We should expect more orders this year.


Lately we have had several threads about B787 and A350. As we know both manufactures are going to improve their frames and customers will benefit from the competion and the improvements. The specific topic has been widely discussed know and will be locked. Feel free to open a new thread in case B or A are making any announcements about further optimization of their frames.

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