RainerBoeing777
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Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:56 pm

With the tentative approval of the JV with American Airlines the last Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner will be used to expand in the United States and Qantas prepares Brisbane (BNE) - San Francisco (SFO) / Chicago O'Hare (ORD) to launch, possibly MEL- DFW and SYD-DFW go to B789.

But what will happen with the SYD-HND / JNB / SCL routes? But what will happen with the SYD-HND / JNB / SCL routes? How many A330 and A380 will have free, with this JV must order more B789 to expand

My perpestiva are, is that SCL will increase daily with Boeing 787-9, JNB will pass to A380 or maybe to not lower capacity, SYD-JNB will be operated with B789 and PER-JNB with A330, and in HND it will operate with B789 and increase the NRT-MEL service with A380, or Qantas fly SYD-Tokyo from both NRT airports with A330 and HND with B789
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:59 pm

Well they have 6 more aircraft currently on order and We don’t have any confirmation of any DFW routes being 787 routes. You’re reaching a bit there. Remember, QF originally ordered 35 787-9s before reordering them. I fully expect to see more 787 orders in due time.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:03 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Well they have 6 more aircraft currently on order and We don’t have any confirmation of any DFW routes being 787 routes. You’re reaching a bit there. Remember, QF originally ordered 35 787-9s before reordering them. I fully expect to see more 787 orders in due time.


Already two will be used in SYD-SFO this year, next will launch BNE-ORD / SFO, and then? I think 2 b789 will not cover HND, JNB and SCL
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ikolkyo
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:06 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Well they have 6 more aircraft currently on order and We don’t have any confirmation of any DFW routes being 787 routes. You’re reaching a bit there. Remember, QF originally ordered 35 787-9s before reordering them. I fully expect to see more 787 orders in due time.


Already two will be used in SYD-SFO this year, next will launch BNE-ORD / SFO, and then? I think 2 b789 will not cover HND, JNB and SCL


We don’t have any dates for when flights for BNE-ORD/SFO are to begin. For all we know they align with the arrival of the next 6 aircraft.
 
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qf789
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:12 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Well they have 6 more aircraft currently on order and We don’t have any confirmation of any DFW routes being 787 routes. You’re reaching a bit there. Remember, QF originally ordered 35 787-9s before reordering them. I fully expect to see more 787 orders in due time.


Already two will be used in SYD-SFO this year, next will launch BNE-ORD / SFO, and then? I think 2 b789 will not cover HND, JNB and SCL


You are looking at it the wrong way. Both BNE-ORD and BNE-SFO can be deployed using the existing fleet. SYD-HKG will revert back to A330 and BNE-LAX which is currently at 10 weekly will likely be reduced to just daily to operate a 3 weekly BNE-SFO. Throw in the 2 weekly MEL-LAX which will likely be replaced by AA starting MEL-LAX, BNE-ORD could be operated around 4 times a week.

Both SCL and JNB will be 789's and even with both being increased to daily would use around 3 frames. HND there is some talk about QF trying to find a way to use the A388 there, so even after the 744's are phased out there is still the possibility of having 1 spare 789 for new routes.

For more on the A380 for Tokyo refer to the following

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-eyes-ai ... ource=grid
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qf789
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:13 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Well they have 6 more aircraft currently on order and We don’t have any confirmation of any DFW routes being 787 routes. You’re reaching a bit there. Remember, QF originally ordered 35 787-9s before reordering them. I fully expect to see more 787 orders in due time.


Already two will be used in SYD-SFO this year, next will launch BNE-ORD / SFO, and then? I think 2 b789 will not cover HND, JNB and SCL


We don’t have any dates for when flights for BNE-ORD/SFO are to begin. For all we know they align with the arrival of the next 6 aircraft.


From what I have heard BNE-ORD wont start until next year
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Slash787
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:18 pm

The current routes which their B747 flies to, in the future won't it be better to replace it with the A35K than the B789?
 
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qf789
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:29 pm

Slash787 wrote:
The current routes which their B747 flies to, in the future won't it be better to replace it with the A35K than the B789?


Not necessarily, Qantas is more focused on yields than capacity. The 789 allows routes such as SFO to be operated from SYD, MEL and BNE. SCL is only operated 4 weekly, operating a daily 789 would increase capacity by about 10%, also note that the bilateral on SCL is by number of seats not number of frequencies. JNB is operated 6 weekly, while a daily 789 would reduce the number of seats this can be offset by a 3-4 weekly service from PER using an A332. Traffic between JNB and Australia is also very seasonal. Regarding HND even if a 789 was used, QF can always operate a SYD-NRT with an A330 to compensate any seat losses
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dcajet
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:53 pm

Has CASA already approved the Southern Seas route with twin-engined equipment for airlines under its jurisdiction?
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RainerBoeing777
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:14 pm

dcajet wrote:
Has CASA already approved the Southern Seas route with twin-engined equipment for airlines under its jurisdiction?


The same case of SCL applies JNB, I do not know if they have the ETOPS certification to fly with a twin engine, the A380 can support the SYD-JNB demand, but I doubt that the A380 could come to SCL too big and premium for this market. I am sure that QF's A380 will soon be retiring from DFW. between AA and QF will operate together with their B789
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RainerBoeing777
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:29 pm

qf789 wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Well they have 6 more aircraft currently on order and We don’t have any confirmation of any DFW routes being 787 routes. You’re reaching a bit there. Remember, QF originally ordered 35 787-9s before reordering them. I fully expect to see more 787 orders in due time.


Already two will be used in SYD-SFO this year, next will launch BNE-ORD / SFO, and then? I think 2 b789 will not cover HND, JNB and SCL


You are looking at it the wrong way. Both BNE-ORD and BNE-SFO can be deployed using the existing fleet. SYD-HKG will revert back to A330 and BNE-LAX which is currently at 10 weekly will likely be reduced to just daily to operate a 3 weekly BNE-SFO. Throw in the 2 weekly MEL-LAX which will likely be replaced by AA starting MEL-LAX, BNE-ORD could be operated around 4 times a week.

Both SCL and JNB will be 789's and even with both being increased to daily would use around 3 frames. HND there is some talk about QF trying to find a way to use the A388 there, so even after the 744's are phased out there is still the possibility of having 1 spare 789 for new routes.

For more on the A380 for Tokyo refer to the following

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-eyes-ai ... ource=grid


Use of the Qantas Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner
MEL-PER-LHR Daily (3)
SFO-MEL Daily (1.5)> (After AA takes flight QF95 / 96 it will increase to x6 or daily)
BNE-LAX 10 flights per week (2.5) (I do not think there is a reduction since the departure of the B747)
LAX-JFK daily (1)

SYD-SFO daily (1.5)
BNE-ORD x4 (1)
BNE-SFO x3 (1)

That would leave only 2.5 free frames, now I ask the million? that will cover HND, JNB and SCL ??

If you change equipment in DFW from A380 to B789, you would leave 2 A380 free I think that could operate Tokyo and Johannesburg, but there will still be a empty in SCL, QF needs to announce an early purchase of B789 or withdraw the B747 until at least 2021
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
x1234
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:33 pm

First of all for the most optimal route SCL-SYD requires ETOPS 330 (like Air New Zealand has on their 772 flying AKL-EZE or LATAM on their 787's SCL-AKL & SCL-MEL) and JNB requires it too I believe for the most optimal route. When VA was flying MEL-JNB on their 77W's the flight took 2 hours longer due to ETOPS flying northward. The Australian regulator CASA needs to learn from the USA & New Zealand and approve ETOPS 330 for QF. I believe QF like Air New Zealand can exploit South America to Asia traffic (like NZ does on their recent US$1800 EZE-AKL-NRT/PVG/HKG/SIN sale on their Argentina website).
 
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:35 pm

Also Australia could also grant Chilean citizens ETA status like the USA has in their VISA Waiver Program (the only South American country with VISA Waiver status due to the near developed nature of Chile).
 
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:42 pm

QF has never stuck to their announced timeline when it comes to 744 retirements. There’s no reason why things will be different now, I’ve always expected the last 744s to remain in the fleet until the Project Sunrise aircraft enters around 2022-23.

It doesn’t make sense for them to replace all of that capacity and then undertake a period of high risk growth starting a couple of years later. Better to have a smooth transition and grow more organically over a 5 years period using 787s.
 
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:03 pm

Qantas received the last 6 744, as 744ER, ever produced for passengers so theirs are the youngest. There is no reason they can't fly until 2025.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:11 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Qantas received the last 6 744, as 744ER, ever produced for passengers so theirs are the youngest. There is no reason they can't fly until 2025.


So you think the management is actively lying in their regulatory filing?
 
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:33 pm

aryonoco wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Qantas received the last 6 744, as 744ER, ever produced for passengers so theirs are the youngest. There is no reason they can't fly until 2025.


So you think the management is actively lying in their regulatory filing?

jfk777 is not wrong, the aircraft easily have another 10 years of life in them, but Qantas nonetheless want to retire them. They are not mutually exclusive statements.

EDIT: where jfk777 is incorrect is that they weren't the final ever passenger versions. KE (and maybe BA?) took delivery of pax 744s (non ER version) as late as 2005 IIRC.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:36 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Qantas received the last 6 744, as 744ER, ever produced for passengers so theirs are the youngest. There is no reason they can't fly until 2025.


So you think the management is actively lying in their regulatory filing?

jfk777 is not wrong, the aircraft easily have another 10 years of life in them, but Qantas nonetheless want to retire them. They are not mutually exclusive statements.


Not to mention that just because the stated retirement date is their goal they're not beholden to it. They can change their mind.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:46 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Qantas received the last 6 744, as 744ER, ever produced for passengers so theirs are the youngest. There is no reason they can't fly until 2025.


So you think the management is actively lying in their regulatory filing?

jfk777 is not wrong, the aircraft easily have another 10 years of life in them, but Qantas nonetheless want to retire them. They are not mutually exclusive statements.

EDIT: where jfk777 is incorrect is that they weren't the final ever passenger versions. KE (and maybe BA?) took delivery of pax 744s (non ER version) as late as 2005 IIRC.

Last BA delivery was 1999
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:50 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Qantas received the last 6 744, as 744ER, ever produced for passengers so theirs are the youngest. There is no reason they can't fly until 2025.


So you think the management is actively lying in their regulatory filing?

jfk777 is not wrong, the aircraft easily have another 10 years of life in them, but Qantas nonetheless want to retire them. They are not mutually exclusive statements.

EDIT: where jfk777 is incorrect is that they weren't the final ever passenger versions. KE (and maybe BA?) took delivery of pax 744s (non ER version) as late as 2005 IIRC.

Actually the title of taking delivery of last 744 pax belongs to CI - although a few airlines (TG, CI, VS and AF) did take delivery of pax 744s after QF's last bird (OEJ)

Michael
 
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:54 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
With the tentative approval of the JV with American Airlines the last Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner will be used to expand in the United States and Qantas prepares Brisbane (BNE) - San Francisco (SFO) / Chicago O'Hare (ORD) to launch, possibly MEL- DFW and SYD-DFW go to B789.

But what will happen with the SYD-HND / JNB / SCL routes? But what will happen with the SYD-HND / JNB / SCL routes? How many A330 and A380 will have free, with this JV must order more B789 to expand

My perpestiva are, is that SCL will increase daily with Boeing 787-9, JNB will pass to A380 or maybe to not lower capacity, SYD-JNB will be operated with B789 and PER-JNB with A330, and in HND it will operate with B789 and increase the NRT-MEL service with A380, or Qantas fly SYD-Tokyo from both NRT airports with A330 and HND with B789


The short answer is that QF has enough A330 and 789 capacity either existing or coming into the fleet to allow it to both handle existing international route frequencies and to allow for new services on both the A330 and 789 fleet on international routes. As I said in the other thread discussing this in terms of AA taking over the currently twice weekly MEL-LAX 789 service:

"Going through the current QF 789 rotations, and based on previous QF announcements, you currently have:

4 x 789 doing LHR-PER-MEL-LAX/SFO - LHR is daily and LAX started off 6 pw before they mixed SFO in;

4 x 789 doing BNE-LAX-JFK along with various services to Hong Kong.

So from a 789 fleet perspective if QF drops the MEL-LAX on the 789 then they'll need to be able to rotate the 789's to position them back to MEL to do MEL-PER-LHR. So that implies either a BNE-MEL domestic sector for the 789 for positioning on days SFO-MEL doesn't operate or that they will swap aircraft around in SFO. It also means the 789 comes off of Hong Kong so QF basically has 2 789's to cover off BNE-SFO and BNE-ORD. Do the maths on what the availability is for those along with any slackness in the 3 789's doing BNE-LAX-JFK and positioning requirements for MEL-PER-LHR that's how many potential services you have for the new BNE US routes. I'd say you've got a maximum or 7 to 8 frequencies per week available for them and that you'll likely see 3 per week to SFO. So that leaves probably 3 or 4 frequencies per week to ORD."

And in relation to SCL, JNB and Tokyo:

"I've maintained for a while now that the next 787 order we see from Qantas will be after the QF/AA JBA goes through. QF have another 6 789's on order and coming into the fleet to allow for the retirement of the 744. How are they backfilling capacity? On JNB they were going to deploy an A330 from PER so you'd have daily SYD on the 789 and the reduction in capacity handled by an A330 service from PER. (Which fell over thanks to the fee dispute between PER and QF) That's still the likeliest outcome for JNB.

On HND, QF have already started MEL and BNE to NRT and re-instated SYD-KIX so moving SYD - HND to a 789 or an A330 and doing supplementary services to SYD-NRT, or having JQ do them, would seem the likeliest outcome to make up for a loss of capacity.

The real question is on SCL but I think that has been partially answered by LATAM starting MEL-SCL service. So QF pulling back a bit of capacity on SYD-SCL while maintaining frequency is likely not a bad thing and with the ability to fly to GRU/GIG part of the project sunrise brief medium / long term 787's flying to SCL won't be an issue because you'll have a 2nd entry point to South America."

QF742 also pointed out that QF is also lauching seasonal SYD-CTS services in addition to all of the above services to Japan.

So the 747 can easily be made redundant in QF long haul and, especially in QF's key international markets, seasonal upticks in capacity can be handled by delpoying the A380 like they currently do.
 
CWizard
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:54 pm

Hmmm..... I thought China Air, Taiwan, took delivery of the last 747-400s.... maybe they were the freighter version?
 
TN486T
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:06 pm

How many airlines took delivery of the 400ER and in what quantity?
 
speedbird52
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:08 pm

TN486T wrote:
How many airlines took delivery of the 400ER and in what quantity?

Qantas was the only one that took delivery of the passenger version
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:37 am

Sydscott wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
With the tentative approval of the JV with American Airlines the last Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner will be used to expand in the United States and Qantas prepares Brisbane (BNE) - San Francisco (SFO) / Chicago O'Hare (ORD) to launch, possibly MEL- DFW and SYD-DFW go to B789.

But what will happen with the SYD-HND / JNB / SCL routes? But what will happen with the SYD-HND / JNB / SCL routes? How many A330 and A380 will have free, with this JV must order more B789 to expand

My perpestiva are, is that SCL will increase daily with Boeing 787-9, JNB will pass to A380 or maybe to not lower capacity, SYD-JNB will be operated with B789 and PER-JNB with A330, and in HND it will operate with B789 and increase the NRT-MEL service with A380, or Qantas fly SYD-Tokyo from both NRT airports with A330 and HND with B789


The short answer is that QF has enough A330 and 789 capacity either existing or coming into the fleet to allow it to both handle existing international route frequencies and to allow for new services on both the A330 and 789 fleet on international routes. As I said in the other thread discussing this in terms of AA taking over the currently twice weekly MEL-LAX 789 service:

"Going through the current QF 789 rotations, and based on previous QF announcements, you currently have:

4 x 789 doing LHR-PER-MEL-LAX/SFO - LHR is daily and LAX started off 6 pw before they mixed SFO in;

4 x 789 doing BNE-LAX-JFK along with various services to Hong Kong.

So from a 789 fleet perspective if QF drops the MEL-LAX on the 789 then they'll need to be able to rotate the 789's to position them back to MEL to do MEL-PER-LHR. So that implies either a BNE-MEL domestic sector for the 789 for positioning on days SFO-MEL doesn't operate or that they will swap aircraft around in SFO. It also means the 789 comes off of Hong Kong so QF basically has 2 789's to cover off BNE-SFO and BNE-ORD. Do the maths on what the availability is for those along with any slackness in the 3 789's doing BNE-LAX-JFK and positioning requirements for MEL-PER-LHR that's how many potential services you have for the new BNE US routes. I'd say you've got a maximum or 7 to 8 frequencies per week available for them and that you'll likely see 3 per week to SFO. So that leaves probably 3 or 4 frequencies per week to ORD."

And in relation to SCL, JNB and Tokyo:

"I've maintained for a while now that the next 787 order we see from Qantas will be after the QF/AA JBA goes through. QF have another 6 789's on order and coming into the fleet to allow for the retirement of the 744. How are they backfilling capacity? On JNB they were going to deploy an A330 from PER so you'd have daily SYD on the 789 and the reduction in capacity handled by an A330 service from PER. (Which fell over thanks to the fee dispute between PER and QF) That's still the likeliest outcome for JNB.

On HND, QF have already started MEL and BNE to NRT and re-instated SYD-KIX so moving SYD - HND to a 789 or an A330 and doing supplementary services to SYD-NRT, or having JQ do them, would seem the likeliest outcome to make up for a loss of capacity.

The real question is on SCL but I think that has been partially answered by LATAM starting MEL-SCL service. So QF pulling back a bit of capacity on SYD-SCL while maintaining frequency is likely not a bad thing and with the ability to fly to GRU/GIG part of the project sunrise brief medium / long term 787's flying to SCL won't be an issue because you'll have a 2nd entry point to South America."

QF742 also pointed out that QF is also lauching seasonal SYD-CTS services in addition to all of the above services to Japan.

So the 747 can easily be made redundant in QF long haul and, especially in QF's key international markets, seasonal upticks in capacity can be handled by delpoying the A380 like they currently do.


Of the 6 remaining orders and 2 will be used in SYD-SFO with daily flights, this was already official by Qantas, but the announcement of ORD / SFO from BNE only 2/3 remain for HND, JNB and SCL
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
QF742
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:52 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
With the tentative approval of the JV with American Airlines the last Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner will be used to expand in the United States and Qantas prepares Brisbane (BNE) - San Francisco (SFO) / Chicago O'Hare (ORD) to launch, possibly MEL- DFW and SYD-DFW go to B789.

But what will happen with the SYD-HND / JNB / SCL routes? But what will happen with the SYD-HND / JNB / SCL routes? How many A330 and A380 will have free, with this JV must order more B789 to expand

My perpestiva are, is that SCL will increase daily with Boeing 787-9, JNB will pass to A380 or maybe to not lower capacity, SYD-JNB will be operated with B789 and PER-JNB with A330, and in HND it will operate with B789 and increase the NRT-MEL service with A380, or Qantas fly SYD-Tokyo from both NRT airports with A330 and HND with B789


The short answer is that QF has enough A330 and 789 capacity either existing or coming into the fleet to allow it to both handle existing international route frequencies and to allow for new services on both the A330 and 789 fleet on international routes. As I said in the other thread discussing this in terms of AA taking over the currently twice weekly MEL-LAX 789 service:

"Going through the current QF 789 rotations, and based on previous QF announcements, you currently have:

4 x 789 doing LHR-PER-MEL-LAX/SFO - LHR is daily and LAX started off 6 pw before they mixed SFO in;

4 x 789 doing BNE-LAX-JFK along with various services to Hong Kong.

So from a 789 fleet perspective if QF drops the MEL-LAX on the 789 then they'll need to be able to rotate the 789's to position them back to MEL to do MEL-PER-LHR. So that implies either a BNE-MEL domestic sector for the 789 for positioning on days SFO-MEL doesn't operate or that they will swap aircraft around in SFO. It also means the 789 comes off of Hong Kong so QF basically has 2 789's to cover off BNE-SFO and BNE-ORD. Do the maths on what the availability is for those along with any slackness in the 3 789's doing BNE-LAX-JFK and positioning requirements for MEL-PER-LHR that's how many potential services you have for the new BNE US routes. I'd say you've got a maximum or 7 to 8 frequencies per week available for them and that you'll likely see 3 per week to SFO. So that leaves probably 3 or 4 frequencies per week to ORD."

And in relation to SCL, JNB and Tokyo:

"I've maintained for a while now that the next 787 order we see from Qantas will be after the QF/AA JBA goes through. QF have another 6 789's on order and coming into the fleet to allow for the retirement of the 744. How are they backfilling capacity? On JNB they were going to deploy an A330 from PER so you'd have daily SYD on the 789 and the reduction in capacity handled by an A330 service from PER. (Which fell over thanks to the fee dispute between PER and QF) That's still the likeliest outcome for JNB.

On HND, QF have already started MEL and BNE to NRT and re-instated SYD-KIX so moving SYD - HND to a 789 or an A330 and doing supplementary services to SYD-NRT, or having JQ do them, would seem the likeliest outcome to make up for a loss of capacity.

The real question is on SCL but I think that has been partially answered by LATAM starting MEL-SCL service. So QF pulling back a bit of capacity on SYD-SCL while maintaining frequency is likely not a bad thing and with the ability to fly to GRU/GIG part of the project sunrise brief medium / long term 787's flying to SCL won't be an issue because you'll have a 2nd entry point to South America."

QF742 also pointed out that QF is also lauching seasonal SYD-CTS services in addition to all of the above services to Japan.

So the 747 can easily be made redundant in QF long haul and, especially in QF's key international markets, seasonal upticks in capacity can be handled by delpoying the A380 like they currently do.


Of the 6 remaining orders and 2 will be used in SYD-SFO with daily flights, this was already official by Qantas, but the announcement of ORD / SFO from BNE only 2/3 remain for HND, JNB and SCL


I think you may be misunderstanding some of the above posts. Any new BNE-ORD/SFO service will come at the expense of 789 flying from HKG and excess LAX service (this has not been officially announced but is the likely scenario given QF have an agreement with Qld govt to base 4 789s at BNE). The next 6 will be SYD based, with the first batch taking over SYD-SFO. This leaves about 4 frames to operate SCL and JNB. I note that HNL and HND are 744 but do not require the range of the 789, so we shouldn’t assume they will be replaced by 789s at this stage.
 
Williamsb747
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:01 am

While I agree that JNB will eventually be replaced to a b787-9 Qantas has stated officially that they would want to fly to CPT. The way I see it is instead of a PER-JNB on an a330 it’s going to be a MEL or SYD to CPT maybe 3x on a b787-9 (it’s probably the only plane Qantas has that would be allowed to fly the route)
 
Chris2302
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:07 am

HNL is to change back to A333 on the 30th August.
 
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:16 am

QF742 wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Sydscott wrote:

The short answer is that QF has enough A330 and 789 capacity either existing or coming into the fleet to allow it to both handle existing international route frequencies and to allow for new services on both the A330 and 789 fleet on international routes. As I said in the other thread discussing this in terms of AA taking over the currently twice weekly MEL-LAX 789 service:

"Going through the current QF 789 rotations, and based on previous QF announcements, you currently have:

4 x 789 doing LHR-PER-MEL-LAX/SFO - LHR is daily and LAX started off 6 pw before they mixed SFO in;

4 x 789 doing BNE-LAX-JFK along with various services to Hong Kong.

So from a 789 fleet perspective if QF drops the MEL-LAX on the 789 then they'll need to be able to rotate the 789's to position them back to MEL to do MEL-PER-LHR. So that implies either a BNE-MEL domestic sector for the 789 for positioning on days SFO-MEL doesn't operate or that they will swap aircraft around in SFO. It also means the 789 comes off of Hong Kong so QF basically has 2 789's to cover off BNE-SFO and BNE-ORD. Do the maths on what the availability is for those along with any slackness in the 3 789's doing BNE-LAX-JFK and positioning requirements for MEL-PER-LHR that's how many potential services you have for the new BNE US routes. I'd say you've got a maximum or 7 to 8 frequencies per week available for them and that you'll likely see 3 per week to SFO. So that leaves probably 3 or 4 frequencies per week to ORD."

And in relation to SCL, JNB and Tokyo:

"I've maintained for a while now that the next 787 order we see from Qantas will be after the QF/AA JBA goes through. QF have another 6 789's on order and coming into the fleet to allow for the retirement of the 744. How are they backfilling capacity? On JNB they were going to deploy an A330 from PER so you'd have daily SYD on the 789 and the reduction in capacity handled by an A330 service from PER. (Which fell over thanks to the fee dispute between PER and QF) That's still the likeliest outcome for JNB.

On HND, QF have already started MEL and BNE to NRT and re-instated SYD-KIX so moving SYD - HND to a 789 or an A330 and doing supplementary services to SYD-NRT, or having JQ do them, would seem the likeliest outcome to make up for a loss of capacity.

The real question is on SCL but I think that has been partially answered by LATAM starting MEL-SCL service. So QF pulling back a bit of capacity on SYD-SCL while maintaining frequency is likely not a bad thing and with the ability to fly to GRU/GIG part of the project sunrise brief medium / long term 787's flying to SCL won't be an issue because you'll have a 2nd entry point to South America."

QF742 also pointed out that QF is also lauching seasonal SYD-CTS services in addition to all of the above services to Japan.

So the 747 can easily be made redundant in QF long haul and, especially in QF's key international markets, seasonal upticks in capacity can be handled by delpoying the A380 like they currently do.


Of the 6 remaining orders and 2 will be used in SYD-SFO with daily flights, this was already official by Qantas, but the announcement of ORD / SFO from BNE only 2/3 remain for HND, JNB and SCL


I think you may be misunderstanding some of the above posts. Any new BNE-ORD/SFO service will come at the expense of 789 flying from HKG and excess LAX service (this has not been officially announced but is the likely scenario given QF have an agreement with Qld govt to base 4 789s at BNE). The next 6 will be SYD based, with the first batch taking over SYD-SFO. This leaves about 4 frames to operate SCL and JNB. I note that HNL and HND are 744 but do not require the range of the 789, so we shouldn’t assume they will be replaced by 789s at this stage.


HNL will revert to A330 in September. Subject to aircraft retirememts, I wouldn't be surprised to see it upgauged back to 747 for December/January using capacity freed up from SFO going 787, but I think going forward HNL will predominantly/solely be an A330 route.

Four aircraft will cover HND/JNB (3 frames combined) and SCL 3-4 weekly (4 if JNB is 6x, 3 if JNB is 7x) but doesn't leave much room to increase frequency to SCL to compensate for the loss of capacity.

While not official, 787s coming off HKG and cancelling QF55/56 is but inevitable as it is the only way that the numbers stack up. Unless they defer 747 retirements of course...
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:17 am

CWizard wrote:
Hmmm..... I thought China Air, Taiwan, took delivery of the last 747-400s.... maybe they were the freighter version?


It was CI. Apologies, I was thinking of KE but that was wrong.
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Chris2302
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:28 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
QF742 wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:

Of the 6 remaining orders and 2 will be used in SYD-SFO with daily flights, this was already official by Qantas, but the announcement of ORD / SFO from BNE only 2/3 remain for HND, JNB and SCL


I think you may be misunderstanding some of the above posts. Any new BNE-ORD/SFO service will come at the expense of 789 flying from HKG and excess LAX service (this has not been officially announced but is the likely scenario given QF have an agreement with Qld govt to base 4 789s at BNE). The next 6 will be SYD based, with the first batch taking over SYD-SFO. This leaves about 4 frames to operate SCL and JNB. I note that HNL and HND are 744 but do not require the range of the 789, so we shouldn’t assume they will be replaced by 789s at this stage.


HNL will revert to A330 in September. Subject to aircraft retirememts, I wouldn't be surprised to see it upgauged back to 747 for December/January using capacity freed up from SFO going 787, but I think going forward HNL will predominantly/solely be an A330 route.

Four aircraft will cover HND/JNB (3 frames combined) and SCL 3-4 weekly (4 if JNB is 6x, 3 if JNB is 7x) but doesn't leave much room to increase frequency to SCL to compensate for the loss of capacity.

While not official, 787s coming off HKG and cancelling QF55/56 is but inevitable as it is the only way that the numbers stack up. Unless they defer 747 retirements of course...


But on the Qantas booking site it has A330 flying 30 August?
Last edited by Chris2302 on Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:41 am

Chris2302 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
QF742 wrote:

I think you may be misunderstanding some of the above posts. Any new BNE-ORD/SFO service will come at the expense of 789 flying from HKG and excess LAX service (this has not been officially announced but is the likely scenario given QF have an agreement with Qld govt to base 4 789s at BNE). The next 6 will be SYD based, with the first batch taking over SYD-SFO. This leaves about 4 frames to operate SCL and JNB. I note that HNL and HND are 744 but do not require the range of the 789, so we shouldn’t assume they will be replaced by 789s at this stage.


HNL will revert to A330 in September. Subject to aircraft retirememts, I wouldn't be surprised to see it upgauged back to 747 for December/January using capacity freed up from SFO going 787, but I think going forward HNL will predominantly/solely be an A330 route.

Four aircraft will cover HND/JNB (3 frames combined) and SCL 3-4 weekly (4 if JNB is 6x, 3 if JNB is 7x) but doesn't leave much room to increase frequency to SCL to compensate for the loss of capacity.

While not official, 787s coming off HKG and cancelling QF55/56 is but inevitable as it is the only way that the numbers stack up. Unless they defer 747 retirements of course...


But in the Qantas booking sight it has A330 flying 30 August?


I honestly thought it changed on 1 September but am happy to be corrected :)
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grbauc
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 3:44 am

qf789 wrote:
Slash787 wrote:
The current routes which their B747 flies to, in the future won't it be better to replace it with the A35K than the B789?


Not necessarily, Qantas is more focused on yields than capacity. The 789 allows routes such as SFO to be operated from SYD, MEL and BNE. SCL is only operated 4 weekly, operating a daily 789 would increase capacity by about 10%, also note that the bilateral on SCL is by number of seats not number of frequencies. JNB is operated 6 weekly, while a daily 789 would reduce the number of seats this can be offset by a 3-4 weekly service from PER using an A332. Traffic between JNB and Australia is also very seasonal. Regarding HND even if a 789 was used, QF can always operate a SYD-NRT with an A330 to compensate any seat losses



Thank you I love reading your posts about Qantas and there operation you definitely have there operation down...
 
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:23 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
...so even after the 744's are phased out there is still the possibility of having 1 spare 789 for new routes.

For more on the A380 for Tokyo refer to the following

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-eyes-ai ... ource=grid


Use of the Qantas Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner
MEL-PER-LHR Daily (3)
SFO-MEL Daily (1.5)> (After AA takes flight QF95 / 96 it will increase to x6 or daily)
BNE-LAX 10 flights per week (2.5) (I do not think there is a reduction since the departure of the B747)
LAX-JFK daily (1)

SYD-SFO daily (1.5)
BNE-ORD x4 (1)
BNE-SFO x3 (1)


Like myself and a few others on here have said previously, I do question whether BNE has strong enough yields to maintain the x3 LAX terminators on top of ORD/SFO coming online. It's very likely leaning towards a no, hence why many are predicting QF55/56's days are numbered.

BNE-SFO being introduced could be said to compliment the loss of SYD-SFO capacity through the retirement of the 744s, this is already partially done through QF starting MEL-SFO.

Plus a number of passengers either heading to ORD/SFO or connecting to AA/AS cities (not served through LAX) through the hubs in ORD/SFO are likely to take the ORD/SFO flight instead of LAX.

The loads on the LAX extras may vary throughout the year (e.g terminators being full during the "school holidays") but even without first hand knowledge of the yield levels, it's likely the yields on QF55/56 are likely to be average (at best) to below average overall.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:48 am

With the discussion about QF having enough 787 aircraft to cover the 747 retirement, I might just throw a curve ball in.

What if JQ were to reduce it's 787-8 fleet, sending a couple to QF - that would give QF additional aircraft capacity, and JQ could instead use A321s for DPS which I think they have on order.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:53 am

I think the delaying of the retirement of the 747 would rest on LH, CA or KE since they operate the 748 and those arte still pretty young even compared to QFs 744ERs.

The 747 offers much more capacity than the 789 so I'd imagine the Project Sunrise order to include some base models to act as a 747 replacement.
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Antarius
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:57 am

Obzerva wrote:
With the discussion about QF having enough 787 aircraft to cover the 747 retirement, I might just throw a curve ball in.

What if JQ were to reduce it's 787-8 fleet, sending a couple to QF - that would give QF additional aircraft capacity, and JQ could instead use A321s for DPS which I think they have on order.


Double curve ball - JQ takes the youngest 744s and reconfigures them into a high density layout. :hyper:
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN DEN DOH BLR MAA KTM YYZ MEX
 
Obzerva
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:02 am

Antarius wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
With the discussion about QF having enough 787 aircraft to cover the 747 retirement, I might just throw a curve ball in.

What if JQ were to reduce it's 787-8 fleet, sending a couple to QF - that would give QF additional aircraft capacity, and JQ could instead use A321s for DPS which I think they have on order.


Double curve ball - JQ takes the youngest 744s and reconfigures them into a high density layout. :hyper:


I like it, they could it market it as their 747 MAXimum seating :bomb:
 
Pcoder
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:04 am

Obzerva wrote:
With the discussion about QF having enough 787 aircraft to cover the 747 retirement, I might just throw a curve ball in.

What if JQ were to reduce it's 787-8 fleet, sending a couple to QF - that would give QF additional aircraft capacity, and JQ could instead use A321s for DPS which I think they have on order.


That's possible, but I think what a lot of people are alluding too is that there will be a gap of about 2 years between, the decommissioning of the 747s and the addition of the sunrise aircraft. The problem with getting the extra 787s from Jetstar is that they might only be required for a short time.

This would have to rely on the decommissioning of the older a330s, but since everyone went a expensive refurb and a few years ago, they might not want to get rid of them until the middle of the decade.

I still see the 747s staying in the fleet a little bit longer as the 787s to replace them have a short full in capacity. They might retain 3-4 for the short term until the sunrise aircraft come.

Another thing to consider is with the joint venture with American approval, some routes like qf95, could be given to AA, giving qantas the ability to get rid of the 747s without having to get extra capacity.
 
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:25 am

Just to finish off this topic / discussion in relation to the 789 fleet and the new Brisbane services:

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... francisco/

BNE-LAX 3 weekly terminators cancelled;
BNE-ORD 4 per week
BNE-SFO 3 per week

MEL-LAX 2 weekly 789 survives for now but we'll see more when the JV is approved.
 
h1fl1er
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:01 am

i'd better get on a 747 before they are all gone or else i'm going to have to ship myself in a box to do it

most of the etops330 routes are feasible by staying out of that etops regime, right?
 
x1234
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:19 pm

Yes. Also one reason why Qantas's SYD-SCL airfares are so expensive is due to the B744 on the route versus LATAM's 787 which is much more fuel efficient.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:11 am

Now that they approved the JV, will they continue with the plans to withdraw the B747 in 2020?
I feel it is too hasty a decision, you must have ordered more Boeing 787-9, you need to restructure your routes in the United States, now another question now that you are going to be so tight in the fleet that will happen with the route to Vancouver (YVR)?
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:16 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Now that they approved the JV, will they continue with the plans to withdraw the B747 in 2020?
I feel it is too hasty a decision, you must have ordered more Boeing 787-9

Keep in mind that the exact opposite could be the case:
now that AA can swap out frequencies for them with ATI, it allows QF to get rid of the 747 that much faster.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 4:16 am

LAX772LR wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Now that they approved the JV, will they continue with the plans to withdraw the B747 in 2020?
I feel it is too hasty a decision, you must have ordered more Boeing 787-9

Keep in mind that the exact opposite could be the case:
now that AA can swap out frequencies for them with ATI, it allows QF to get rid of the 747 that much faster.



but that the other problem that I see, AA was very tight this summer with its fleet almost all the dreamliners were used to the maximum and in 2020 they will receive 10 Boeing 787-8 that will go to PHL, the two airlines are in the same
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
speedbird52
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 4:39 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Qantas received the last 6 744, as 744ER, ever produced for passengers so theirs are the youngest. There is no reason they can't fly until 2025.


So you think the management is actively lying in their regulatory filing?

jfk777 is not wrong, the aircraft easily have another 10 years of life in them, but Qantas nonetheless want to retire them. They are not mutually exclusive statements.

EDIT: where jfk777 is incorrect is that they weren't the final ever passenger versions. KE (and maybe BA?) took delivery of pax 744s (non ER version) as late as 2005 IIRC.

BAs last 744s were delivered in 1999.
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 5:04 am

I think we will see a top up order for another 6-8 789s from QF this year. They would open new routes, and when project sunrise sees the network be restructured again they could be reconfigured and moved to Asian flying. Any decisions also need to consider the 330 replacement - 780 reconfigured or 797? 330 to domestic primarily?

Some future predictions in the next 5years, depending on market and airport agreements;
SYD-PER-CDG
MEL-YVR seasonal
SYD-YVR year round
BNE-PER-JNB 330 seasonal
SYD-CPT seasonal
MEL-DFW
SYD-HKG year round 380
PER-AKL year round

I’m not sure around 380s to Japan, I think we’ll see more fragmentation in the market.

As a side note - whilst the 744ER obviously had extended range, are they any more fuel efficient than the non-ER 744? Could this improve their chances?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:29 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Now that they approved the JV, will they continue with the plans to withdraw the B747 in 2020?
I feel it is too hasty a decision, you must have ordered more Boeing 787-9, you need to restructure your routes in the United States, now another question now that you are going to be so tight in the fleet that will happen with the route to Vancouver (YVR)?


QF have been restructuring their routes to the US for a while by removing capacity from LAX and adding A380s to DFW, MEL-SFO 789, right sizing BNE-LAX-JFK by replacing a 744 with a 789 with additional BNE-LAX frequency which will soon be moved to BNE-SFO/ORD, more DFW will come I would see QF ops from MEL when project sunrise arrives and QF from BNE, AA from AKL-DFW and maybe CHC-LAX, and maybe places like SEA ops by QF longer term.

YVR is seasonal, at some point they will either have to put a 789 on it or drop it.

The 744ER fleet could conceivably fly until 2025/26 but that would require another cabin refit and D check, though the routes they fly now could use the current cabin for a while longer SYD-HND/JNB/SCL while SYD-SFO goes 789 this December.

I can’t see them changing their minds however re the 744 retirement, cost plays a part and I think a bit of ego as well tbh. Admittedly by 2025 not to many will be flying 744s and if fuel goes up they won’t be cheap although they are paid off.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:46 am

Williamsb747 wrote:
While I agree that JNB will eventually be replaced to a b787-9 Qantas has stated officially that they would want to fly to CPT. The way I see it is instead of a PER-JNB on an a330 it’s going to be a MEL or SYD to CPT maybe 3x on a b787-9 (it’s probably the only plane Qantas has that would be allowed to fly the route)

Not going to happen from the East Coast unless either QF orders more 789 or drops some of their current flyings.

Michael
 
travelhound
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Re: Qantas could delay the withdrawal of the Boeing 747?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:48 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Now that they approved the JV, will they continue with the plans to withdraw the B747 in 2020?
I feel it is too hasty a decision, you must have ordered more Boeing 787-9, you need to restructure your routes in the United States, now another question now that you are going to be so tight in the fleet that will happen with the route to Vancouver (YVR)?


QF have been restructuring their routes to the US for a while by removing capacity from LAX and adding A380s to DFW, MEL-SFO 789, right sizing BNE-LAX-JFK by replacing a 744 with a 789 with additional BNE-LAX frequency which will soon be moved to BNE-SFO/ORD, more DFW will come I would see QF ops from MEL when project sunrise arrives and QF from BNE, AA from AKL-DFW and maybe CHC-LAX, and maybe places like SEA ops by QF longer term.

YVR is seasonal, at some point they will either have to put a 789 on it or drop it.

The 744ER fleet could conceivably fly until 2025/26 but that would require another cabin refit and D check, though the routes they fly now could use the current cabin for a while longer SYD-HND/JNB/SCL while SYD-SFO goes 789 this December.

I can’t see them changing their minds however re the 744 retirement, cost plays a part and I think a bit of ego as well tbh. Admittedly by 2025 not to many will be flying 744s and if fuel goes up they won’t be cheap although they are paid off.


In deciding to retire the 747 QF stated the business case for refurbishing the aircraft and undertaking the D check did not stack up against ordering new aircraft. Considering the 787 is a more versatile aircraft with lower operating costs this seems to be a reasonable statement

If I remember correctly AJ stated QF would order more 787's if the JV was approved. I think the statement related to the originsl ACCC application for the JV.

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