MCTSET
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European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:28 am

There is a lot of talk of overcapacity in Europe and airlines stepping on each other’s toes, so I have a question for you guys who do think is the best suited long term for survival, and after that profit. I have my opinion but what are your thoughts.

1. Ryanair. Lowest cost base, extensive fleet with incredible economies of scale, strong brand believe it or not, huge cash reserves, if the fare war has to drive into it (I doubt however they ever will due to such low CASM). RISK = Max delays while competitors have newer aircraft flowing in nicely, could argue they are losing focus in core business with lots of now airline adventures.

2. Wizzair. Very low CASM, focused in a market which is underserved and showing pretty robust growth, consistent profit maker, long term outlook is bright. RISK = future expansion is looking towards Western Europe which is over supplied and quite seasonal. Could argue the over ordered with aircraft due do large backers putting a huge order for entire airline group.

3. EasyJet. LCC which has the strongest presence in the most popular destinations, brand I would argue is the strongest LCC in Europe, and could even argue the strongest airline brand in Europe, has I would argue the most valuable slots of all the airlines in Europe and in today’s market you can argue they are the most important asset. RISK = compared with the LCC competitors the CASM isn’t as low so when it comes to a fare war they are more likely to pull out first, this is reflected in the results this winter.

I will continue to add my opinions on other airlines and would appreciate if you do so as well.
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:34 am

I think Wizz Air's future will depend on how well they perform in Vienna. If their VIE adventure fails then it might postpone their westward expansion. If it succeeds then it might encourage them to open new bases which will be interesting to follow.
I am more interested in what FR does with Lauda.
 
bhxalex
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:37 am

W6 I'm concerned for. They couldn't make PRG work, which should almost have been their 'bread and butter' kind of base.

Expansion wise there's not a lot of Europe left for them, without facing the wrath of existing airlines. Realistically I'm struggling to see where they open significant new bases, I think they'll keep expanding at LTN until they're maxed out, I believe they're now #1 At LTN so I can see them increasing this stranglehold.
 
SCQ83
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:50 am

IMO in the long term easyJet, Ryanair and Wizz Air will remain. Transavia, Eurowings or Vueling/Level are already zombies backed by their groups.

Those 3 major low-cost groups will grow by taking over market share by bankrupt carriers. For instance, Hungary after MALEV's collapse (Ryanair and Wizz Air's gain). In the UK, Monarch (Ryanair and easyJet's gain). There are still quite a few small carriers in Europe (specially in Eastern Europe or the Balkans) that will go under sooner or later.
 
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OA940
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:52 am

I have no source for this so forgive me if I'm wrong, but afaik all 3 are making good profits. To be honest for the health of the market I believe they're all necessary. There are many tiny countries in Europe where the largest city is one of just a few hundred thousand people, and a flag carrier can't do the job. FR, U2 and W6 have made flying more accessible than ever. I also believe there is room for expansion, as long as they don't overdo it. In such a crowded market it's a fine balance between expanding carefully to maintain market share and overexpansion a la Primera
A350/CSeries = bae
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:59 am

VIE will be very important, the reason why there is so much expansion at VIE is because the airport is offering a rebate of €540 euros per 100 pax, and it increases for more pax flow in the airport, this is for based airlines btw. Lauda is interesting but again the market seems so full for Central Europe to med flights, and popular city shuttles is easyJet’s bread and butter, so we will see
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:02 am

bhxalex wrote:
W6 I'm concerned for. They couldn't make PRG work, which should almost have been their 'bread and butter' kind of base.

Expansion wise there's not a lot of Europe left for them, without facing the wrath of existing airlines. Realistically I'm struggling to see where they open significant new bases, I think they'll keep expanding at LTN until they're maxed out, I believe they're now #1 At LTN so I can see them increasing this stranglehold.


I think they were betting on capturing markets such as WAW, OTP, BEG, RIX or SOF by replicating the BUD scenario where they positioned themselves as the dominant player in the aftermath of the collapse of the local player. Fast forward to today and LOT, Tarom, Blueair, Air Serbia, airBaltic... are all still around and show now indication of going bankrupt. In Bucharest Blueair is a special nuisance to them as they seem to be doing quite ok.

Besides BUD I can't think of any eastern European market where they are that dominant. I am sure they expected things to turn out in a very different manner. Even when they embarked on a massive expansion in Sofia, Ryanair launched their own resulting in a massive bloodbath which probably cost them a lot.
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:03 am

bhxalex wrote:
W6 I'm concerned for. They couldn't make PRG work, which should almost have been their 'bread and butter' kind of base.

Expansion wise there's not a lot of Europe left for them, without facing the wrath of existing airlines. Realistically I'm struggling to see where they open significant new bases, I think they'll keep expanding at LTN until they're maxed out, I believe they're now #1 At LTN so I can see them increasing this stranglehold.


They stated that the cost for the airport was too much so they apparently decided to close the base and reduce the flying in PRG to turns from other bases. Again I don’t see where they can place 265 321neos. My thought is that they ordered mammoth to get the huge discount, and use what they can and lease the other aircraft to emerging markets like India, China and anywhere else that needs them.
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:03 am

MCTSET wrote:
VIE will be very important, the reason why there is so much expansion at VIE is because the airport is offering a rebate of €540 euros per 100 pax, and it increases for more pax flow in the airport, this is for based airlines btw. Lauda is interesting but again the market seems so full for Central Europe to med flights, and popular city shuttles is easyJet’s bread and butter, so we will see


Yes but what happens when winter comes and when demand to the seaside resorts drops? Who will then fill those high density airplanes?
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:06 am

Blerg wrote:
MCTSET wrote:
VIE will be very important, the reason why there is so much expansion at VIE is because the airport is offering a rebate of €540 euros per 100 pax, and it increases for more pax flow in the airport, this is for based airlines btw. Lauda is interesting but again the market seems so full for Central Europe to med flights, and popular city shuttles is easyJet’s bread and butter, so we will see


Yes but what happens when winter comes and when demand to the seaside resorts drops? Who will then fill those high density airplanes?


€25 round trips inbound. :hyper:
 
factsonly
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:08 am

The European air transport landscape could well change dramatically in the next decade, as legislators feel a need to restrict short-haul air travel to meet environmental concerns.
Therefore the question is, in what way are European carriers exposed to a change in their operating environment, when higher taxes and higher operating costs restrict demand for short haul air travel.

One could argue that the established long-haul (hub) carriers will be less effected by European ticket taxes as they can draw on overseas demand, while European high growth and high aircraft order LCC's may see a bigger impact.

So the question is, to what extend will the European operating environment change and impact airlines in the next 10 years.

For further reading:

(1) the green view
https://www.greenaironline.com/news.php?viewStory=2453

(2) the academic view:
https://www.ce.nl/en/publications/2208/ ... cket-taxes
 
upperdeckfan
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:11 am

EasyJet, RyanAir and WizzAir are here to stay, to add to what's already said, they will also keep growing by taking over market share from legacies as well as from bankrupt carriers and small tiny countries without a flag carrier.

Other like Volotea, FlyBe, Jet2 or BlueAir will be competitive by targeting niche markets, if they try to grow to play on FR, W6, U2 league they are likely to fail. Norwegian and AirItaly don't look like they are in good financial shape, although their are trying to focus on long haul.

Other point to consider is the ever growing air traffic, it's expected to keep growing so LCC's are in very good position to capture most of that growth.

Regarding FR exposure to 73M fiasco, I don't see it as a significant risk, 738's are still relatively young aircraft fully capable to safely get people from here to there. LCC traffic doessn't care about flying on a brand new ultimate generation aircraft.
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MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:11 am

I also think that Austrian will be the first to crack in Vienna. They will probably drop routes where there is too much LCC presence. They must be shock, in 18 months they went from king of the castle to under siege by a swarm of LCC’s. won’t look good on Lufthansa reports.
 
StTim
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:19 am

upperdeckfan wrote:

Regarding FR exposure to 73M fiasco, I don't see it as a significant risk, 738's are still relatively young aircraft fully capable to safely get people from here to there. LCC traffic doessn't care about flying on a brand new ultimate generation aircraft.


Part of the very low cost model is to move on the frames before expensive heavy checks. If the MAX continues to the point they need to start putting frames through those checks then it will impact FR.

I suspect MOL will be getting Boeing to pay if that is the case.
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:34 am

MCTSET wrote:
I also think that Austrian will be the first to crack in Vienna. They will probably drop routes where there is too much LCC presence. They must be shock, in 18 months they went from king of the castle to under siege by a swarm of LCC’s. won’t look good on Lufthansa reports.


Well Level is already cracking since they were the first to suspend some routes. I think OS will be fine because they are backed by LH and they want to send a message to their competitors who are considering expanding in Germany at some point.
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:28 am

When I think of volotea I think they are quite fragile, yes their business model of niche leisure rotes works well in a solid economy in the good season, but when their is a down turn and people stop spending, these small routes will be more sensitive than big city pairings.
 
holczakker
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:51 am

Blerg wrote:
bhxalex wrote:
W6 I'm concerned for. They couldn't make PRG work, which should almost have been their 'bread and butter' kind of base.

Expansion wise there's not a lot of Europe left for them, without facing the wrath of existing airlines. Realistically I'm struggling to see where they open significant new bases, I think they'll keep expanding at LTN until they're maxed out, I believe they're now #1 At LTN so I can see them increasing this stranglehold.


I think they were betting on capturing markets such as WAW, OTP, BEG, RIX or SOF by replicating the BUD scenario where they positioned themselves as the dominant player in the aftermath of the collapse of the local player. Fast forward to today and LOT, Tarom, Blueair, Air Serbia, airBaltic... are all still around and show now indication of going bankrupt. In Bucharest Blueair is a special nuisance to them as they seem to be doing quite ok.

Besides BUD I can't think of any eastern European market where they are that dominant. I am sure they expected things to turn out in a very different manner. Even when they embarked on a massive expansion in Sofia, Ryanair launched their own resulting in a massive bloodbath which probably cost them a lot.


Number 1 LCC in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Macedonia, Georgia, Serbia, Moldova, Bosnia.
Biggest operator in London-Luton.
Number 2 LCC in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia.
Number 4 LCC in Austria (yet).
291.6 mio EUR net profit for the fiscal year ending in March (with 12,5% margin) and 1300 mio EUR free cash reported just recently.
Wizz does not look like a conpany one need to be concerned about.
 
stylo777
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:53 am

MCTSET wrote:
I also think that Austrian will be the first to crack in Vienna. They will probably drop routes where there is too much LCC presence. They must be shock, in 18 months they went from king of the castle to under siege by a swarm of LCC’s. won’t look good on Lufthansa reports.

they surely feel the pressure, but I don't see them cracking since they also have the longhaul network as backing (apart from the LHGroup).
in fact, they decided to replace their turboprops with 10x 320's in order to increase capacity. on top, they also announced oneway fares around the LCC level of only 39EUR.
 
cuban8
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:56 am

Not sure you will consider Pegasus as an European LCC, but they definitely have a strong presence in Europe, Central Asia and Middle East. Future wise, I feel that they are very well positioned.
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senatorflyer
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:39 am

Wizzair, EasyJet, Vueling and Ryanair will be fine in future. Level isn’t really an airline and relatively small so I’d assume they will be ok as well. Eurowings on the other hand never made any money, neither did Germanwings really. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they will shrink or being integrated back into the various LH Group brands.

And then there is Norwegian. Financially unstable and all over the place. So there will be adjustments for sure the question is just how.
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:44 am

holczakker wrote:
Blerg wrote:
bhxalex wrote:
W6 I'm concerned for. They couldn't make PRG work, which should almost have been their 'bread and butter' kind of base.

Expansion wise there's not a lot of Europe left for them, without facing the wrath of existing airlines. Realistically I'm struggling to see where they open significant new bases, I think they'll keep expanding at LTN until they're maxed out, I believe they're now #1 At LTN so I can see them increasing this stranglehold.


I think they were betting on capturing markets such as WAW, OTP, BEG, RIX or SOF by replicating the BUD scenario where they positioned themselves as the dominant player in the aftermath of the collapse of the local player. Fast forward to today and LOT, Tarom, Blueair, Air Serbia, airBaltic... are all still around and show now indication of going bankrupt. In Bucharest Blueair is a special nuisance to them as they seem to be doing quite ok.

Besides BUD I can't think of any eastern European market where they are that dominant. I am sure they expected things to turn out in a very different manner. Even when they embarked on a massive expansion in Sofia, Ryanair launched their own resulting in a massive bloodbath which probably cost them a lot.


Number 1 LCC in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Macedonia, Georgia, Serbia, Moldova, Bosnia.
Biggest operator in London-Luton.
Number 2 LCC in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia.
Number 4 LCC in Austria (yet).
291.6 mio EUR net profit for the fiscal year ending in March (with 12,5% margin) and 1300 mio EUR free cash reported just recently.
Wizz does not look like a conpany one need to be concerned about.


Please read more carefully, I said that they are not AS dominant as in Hungary which is true. Just because they are number 1 LCC somewhere doesn't mean they dominate the market.
Actually, I stand corrected, North Macedonia seems to be the only market where they are as dominant or even more than they are in BUD.
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:46 am

cuban8 wrote:
Not sure you will consider Pegasus as an European LCC, but they definitely have a strong presence in Europe, Central Asia and Middle East. Future wise, I feel that they are very well positioned.


The only 'issue' with Pegasus is that they are limited to the Turkish market. They don't have access to the European market like Wizz Air and others do.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:17 pm

I do wonder in future if Wizzair and Easyjet may well make good candidates to merge.

Their fleets and networks match well, and as Wizzair continues to shift its focus westward, there will be added pressures.

The way that this industry evolves, it’s hard to keep up sometime, so even if it seems far fetched today, it may make perfect sense in the next decade.
 
SCQ83
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:26 pm

MCTSET wrote:
When I think of volotea I think they are quite fragile, yes their business model of niche leisure rotes works well in a solid economy in the good season, but when their is a down turn and people stop spending, these small routes will be more sensitive than big city pairings.


Volotea was set by the same founders of Vueling so it was born to be sold to IAG. Private equity 101. Back in the day Vueling was an independent carrier born to compete with Clickair (Iberia's low-cost carrier). Iberia purchased Vueling and merge it with Clickair and in the process the original Vueling people made some money.

But it seems that IAG is not interested in Volotea, so they keep it independent.
 
ewt340
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:32 pm

Yeah, I also wonder about Pegasus. Looks like solid LCC to me. And their market doesn't seem to intertwine with other big LCC. So it would be easy for them to grow. And their order book look quite big with 75 new aircraft coming in.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:37 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
But it seems that IAG is not interested in Volotea, so they keep it independent.

I don't think Volotea directly competes with IAG on many, if any routes. They don't serve Barcelona, Dublin, London or Madrid, the major IAG hubs. There is little wonder that IAG is not interested, secondary markets are not their thing. Its an interesting model they have, infrequent flights on secondary p2p routes using cheap, but modern, aircraft. Their costs are relatively low, many of their fares relatively high due to the lack of direct competition. The growth rate isn't dramatic or 'sexy', but does seem steady away. Much like what flyBe has long said it wanted to do, but never managed - probably due to high aircraft leasing and maintenance costs.
 
Delta777Jet
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:50 pm

What of easyjet opens a base in VIE , will this be the end of Level in VIE and hurt Wizzair and Austrian ? Lauda should be ok as they are basically transporting people who can’t afford a ticket !
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SCQ83
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:02 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
I don't think Volotea directly competes with IAG on many, if any routes. They don't serve Barcelona, Dublin, London or Madrid, the major IAG hubs. There is little wonder that IAG is not interested, secondary markets are not their thing. Its an interesting model they have, infrequent flights on secondary p2p routes using cheap, but modern, aircraft. Their costs are relatively low, many of their fares relatively high due to the lack of direct competition. The growth rate isn't dramatic or 'sexy', but does seem steady away. Much like what flyBe has long said it wanted to do, but never managed - probably due to high aircraft leasing and maintenance costs.


Indeed Volotea competes with Vueling on quite a few routes. Secondary markets are Vueling's thing.

Vueling and Clickair started in 2004/05 and competed with each other. Volotea commenced operations in 2012, when Vueling was already well stablished. So it wouldn't make any sense for V7 to compete with VY.

But Volotea complements Vueling very well. I don't even understand why you mention Dublin, London or Madrid (or why you mix IAG and VY), where VY is marginal at best. Other than the VY hub in BCN, Vueling has a large presence in "secondary p2p routes" in France, Italy and Spain which, surprise, are Volotea's main markets.

Some examples. For instance in Spain, Asturias

Volotea Alicante, Málaga, Palma de Mallorca, Tenerife South, Valencia / Seasonal: Ibiza, Menorca, Murcia, Munich, Venice
Vueling Alicante, Barcelona, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, London–Gatwick, Málaga, Seville, Tenerife North / Seasonal: Palma de Mallorca


In France, Nantes

Volotea Bastia, Faro, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, Madrid, Málaga, Montpellier, Naples, Palma de Mallorca, Prague, Strasbourg, Tenerife–South, Toulouse, Venice, Vienna / Seasonal: Ajaccio, Alicante, Cagliari, Corfu, Dubrovnik, Figari, Mykonos, Olbia, Palermo, Perpignan, Pisa, Pula, Santorini, Split, Tangier, Valencia

Vueling Alicante, Barcelona, Gran Canaria, Málaga, Rome–Fiumicino / Seasonal: Palma de Mallorca, Seville, Tenerife–South


In Italy, Palermo

Volotea Ancona, Bari, Genoa, Naples, Turin, Venice, Verona / Seasonal: Bilbao, Bordeaux, Cagliari, Corfu, Heraklion, Ibiza, Lyon, Málaga, Nantes, Nice, Olbia, Palma de Mallorca, Pescara, Rhodes, Santorini, Split, Strasbourg, Toulouse, Zakynthos

Vueling Barcelona, Florence, Rome-Fiumicino


In some cases they compete. In other they just compliment each other perfectly. If IAG was to acquire Volotea and merge it with Vueling, it would make then a major player in some secondary airports in France or Italy like Nantes, Bordeaux, Palermo, Cagliari, etc.
 
smbukas
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:36 pm

I think we should not discuss which out of these 3 will go out of business in short or mid-term. I think all of them are doing pretty well. I still think, consolidation will come up even with successful airlines, so there are plenty of options how this may develop:
- IAG acquires Norwegian;
- Lufthansa acquires Wizz Air;
- IAG acquires Wizz Air;
- easyJet merges with Wizz Air;
- Ryanair acquires Norwegian or Wizz Air;
- AF-KLM merges with easyJet
etc. etc. with other less likely options.

I think, we should wait for economic downturn to start it happening really fast. If, lets say, IAG acquires Norwegian I could see Lufthansa immediately buying Wizz Air.
 
greg85
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:43 pm

Of course Ryanair is here for the long run. But their massive fleet could make them seem over extended in some kind of financial crash. I also feel That Ryanair is running out of good routes to operate. They have an increasing amount of routes that are from a small airport you’ve never heard of, to an small airport you’ve never heard of. We all know that eventually these airports will stop paying Ryanair subsidies. Not convinced that all of their route network is good in the face of increasing costs.

I think there could be an argument that easyJet is more sustainable from that point of view.

I think Wizz is also in for the long run, but I think they are too late to truly upset Ryanair and easyJet. They are now officially number 1 in LTN, but those late night slots to Eastern Europe just cannot be as profitable as what ezy is doing in LTN. As the ezy A321s arrive, they will eventually reclaim number 1 in LTN.
 
MCTSET
Topic Author
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:48 pm

cuban8 wrote:
Not sure you will consider Pegasus as an European LCC, but they definitely have a strong presence in Europe, Central Asia and Middle East. Future wise, I feel that they are very well positioned.



I agree but how much growth can it put out from one hub. Must be great for Istanbul however, a people driver. More or less the same thing for Sunexpress and Antalya.
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:51 pm

senatorflyer wrote:
Wizzair, EasyJet, Vueling and Ryanair will be fine in future. Level isn’t really an airline and relatively small so I’d assume they will be ok as well. Eurowings on the other hand never made any money, neither did Germanwings really. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they will shrink or being integrated back into the various LH Group brands.

And then there is Norwegian. Financially unstable and all over the place. So there will be adjustments for sure the question is just how.



I agree on eurowings I don’t think their home market of western Germany is large enough, mainly to do with it is already decently served by other airlines, it just seems to mean they are duplicating routes to popular destinations.
 
f4f3a
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:53 pm

I wonder whether in the future if setlios or Ryan family sells up would change things a lot.
I think consolidation will happen as markets become over saturated. Airlines can not keep expanding at the same rate . What we’re seeing now is having to purchase airlines to expand .

It will be interesting to see whether any of these airlines move in to the traditional charter territory of mid to long haul leisure routes .
 
Lewton
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:18 pm

Flown Eurowings twice in the past year from Hamburg.
It was never because we chose specifically to fly with them, only because they offered the best combination (price and schedule) for where we wanted to go.
As long as they keep offering the best combination we'll choose them again. If not, sorry. If Ryanair brings more aircraft to be based here I don't think it will be so easy for Eurowings to get more money from me.
 
max999
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:54 pm

stylo777 wrote:
MCTSET wrote:
I also think that Austrian will be the first to crack in Vienna. They will probably drop routes where there is too much LCC presence. They must be shock, in 18 months they went from king of the castle to under siege by a swarm of LCC’s. won’t look good on Lufthansa reports.

they surely feel the pressure, but I don't see them cracking since they also have the longhaul network as backing (apart from the LHGroup).
in fact, they decided to replace their turboprops with 10x 320's in order to increase capacity. on top, they also announced oneway fares around the LCC level of only 39EUR.


It is my understanding that LH has financial performance standards for all its subsidiary airlines. OS management is responsible for meeting those standards and the LCC invasion in Vienna will make it a tough environment to achieve their targets.

If OS doesn't act fast enough, I can imagine LH coming in to take punitive actions like cutting staff, cutting routes, cutting fleets, etc.
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
YIMBY
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Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:54 pm

They all are suited for survival, but none has much leeway for errors. Mergers are possible even in good times and Yet Another Mess might change the landscape so that only the fittest survive and prosper.
 
adammsvk1
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon May 15, 2017 1:14 pm

Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:58 pm

greg85 wrote:
Of course Ryanair is here for the long run. But their massive fleet could make them seem over extended in some kind of financial crash. I also feel That Ryanair is running out of good routes to operate. They have an increasing amount of routes that are from a small airport you’ve never heard of, to an small airport you’ve never heard of. We all know that eventually these airports will stop paying Ryanair subsidies. Not convinced that all of their route network is good in the face of increasing costs.


Yes but surprisingly these odd routes connect places that would otherwise have (at best) some flight to nearest (most likely) LH hub and offer only one or more stop connections. Ryanair has been known for actually creating a market by starting these odd flights (my case as example - I would never consider visiting Israel before when only options were 1 stop flights with odd schedules, but since RyanAir started flights to VDA from my home airport "no one ever heard about", the Eastern Europe-Israel market got stonger then never)
 
vandoc
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:54 pm

Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:17 pm

MCTSET wrote:
senatorflyer wrote:
Wizzair, EasyJet, Vueling and Ryanair will be fine in future. Level isn’t really an airline and relatively small so I’d assume they will be ok as well. Eurowings on the other hand never made any money, neither did Germanwings really. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they will shrink or being integrated back into the various LH Group brands.

And then there is Norwegian. Financially unstable and all over the place. So there will be adjustments for sure the question is just how.



I agree on eurowings I don’t think their home market of western Germany is large enough, mainly to do with it is already decently served by other airlines, it just seems to mean they are duplicating routes to popular destinations.



Huh? Eurowings has bases all over Central Europe with further bases planed. Wizzair is only 2/3 of Eurowings. After taking over all decentral flights from LH, which were bleeding money, they managed to improve the result in every year. Within the next 2 years they will turn a profit. Until then, LH is backing its daughter.
I think it is more probable that OS and EN will be integrated into EW. Maybe LH will buy Norwegian or other smaller airlines as growth for EW.
 
senatorflyer
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 10:57 am

Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:35 pm

vandoc wrote:
MCTSET wrote:
senatorflyer wrote:
Wizzair, EasyJet, Vueling and Ryanair will be fine in future. Level isn’t really an airline and relatively small so I’d assume they will be ok as well. Eurowings on the other hand never made any money, neither did Germanwings really. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they will shrink or being integrated back into the various LH Group brands.

And then there is Norwegian. Financially unstable and all over the place. So there will be adjustments for sure the question is just how.



I agree on eurowings I don’t think their home market of western Germany is large enough, mainly to do with it is already decently served by other airlines, it just seems to mean they are duplicating routes to popular destinations.



Huh? Eurowings has bases all over Central Europe with further bases planed. Wizzair is only 2/3 of Eurowings. After taking over all decentral flights from LH, which were bleeding money, they managed to improve the result in every year. Within the next 2 years they will turn a profit. Until then, LH is backing its daughter.
I think it is more probable that OS and EN will be integrated into EW. Maybe LH will buy Norwegian or other smaller airlines as growth for EW.


As far as I recall Eurowings’ financials didn’t improve a single bit, the contrary is the case. Also Wizzair made a €275m net profit in 2018 while Eurowings had an EBIT of €-231m. Wouldn’t call that healthy.
 
marcogr12
Posts: 250
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:36 pm

Re: European LCC

Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:25 pm

vandoc wrote:
MCTSET wrote:
senatorflyer wrote:
Wizzair, EasyJet, Vueling and Ryanair will be fine in future. Level isn’t really an airline and relatively small so I’d assume they will be ok as well. Eurowings on the other hand never made any money, neither did Germanwings really. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they will shrink or being integrated back into the various LH Group brands.

And then there is Norwegian. Financially unstable and all over the place. So there will be adjustments for sure the question is just how.



I agree on eurowings I don’t think their home market of western Germany is large enough, mainly to do with it is already decently served by other airlines, it just seems to mean they are duplicating routes to popular destinations.



Huh? Eurowings has bases all over Central Europe with further bases planed. Wizzair is only 2/3 of Eurowings. After taking over all decentral flights from LH, which were bleeding money, they managed to improve the result in every year. Within the next 2 years they will turn a profit. Until then, LH is backing its daughter.
I think it is more probable that OS and EN will be integrated into EW. Maybe LH will buy Norwegian or other smaller airlines as growth for EW.

Eurowings has no bases in central europe..Only Germany,Austria and Palma Mallorca..Wizzair has bases in CE Europe and the Baltics,Balkans,VIE n LTN
Flying is breathing..no planes no life..
 
MCTSET
Topic Author
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:45 pm

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:43 am

With low oil prices this summer Norwegian have to make something out of it, or investors will completely loose hope, I am definitely supporting Norwegian as the collapse of an airline its size will be devestating to the industry, and take time to recover.
 
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LuxuryTravelled
Posts: 152
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:06 am

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:19 am

BrianDromey wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
But it seems that IAG is not interested in Volotea, so they keep it independent.

I don't think Volotea directly competes with IAG on many, if any routes. They don't serve Barcelona, Dublin, London or Madrid, the major IAG hubs. There is little wonder that IAG is not interested, secondary markets are not their thing. Its an interesting model they have, infrequent flights on secondary p2p routes using cheap, but modern, aircraft. Their costs are relatively low, many of their fares relatively high due to the lack of direct competition. The growth rate isn't dramatic or 'sexy', but does seem steady away. Much like what flyBe has long said it wanted to do, but never managed - probably due to high aircraft leasing and maintenance costs.


You would think that Volotea would be a more natural fit for easyJet - many of their bases are the same (Venice/Nantes/Bordeaux)...
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5385
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:04 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
Eurowings has no bases in central europe..Only Germany,Austria and Palma Mallorca..Wizzair has bases in CE Europe and the Baltics,Balkans,VIE n LTN


Eurowings has also a base in Kosovo of all places: https://newscloud.eurowings.com/en/pres ... stina.html

LuxuryTravelled wrote:
You would think that Volotea would be a more natural fit for easyJet - many of their bases are the same (Venice/Nantes/Bordeaux)...


That could make sense too. Airplane type is also the same (Airbus). On the other hand Volotea flies a few domestic flights in Spain and easyJet hasn't touched domestic Spain since the crisis. But I don't see that as a major issue.

MCTSET wrote:
With low oil prices this summer Norwegian have to make something out of it, or investors will completely loose hope, I am definitely supporting Norwegian as the collapse of an airline its size will be devestating to the industry, and take time to recover.


Umm? Norwegian is quite marginal today in intra-European flights. If Norwegian goes burst tomorrow, easyJet, Ryanair, Vueling/Level and Wizz Air will jump on most of their routes in a minute. Long haul is a bit trickier but there is Level, Eurowings long-haul and some other minor carriers (Corsair, XL Airways, etc.)
 
Blerg
Posts: 2337
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:13 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
marcogr12 wrote:
Eurowings has no bases in central europe..Only Germany,Austria and Palma Mallorca..Wizzair has bases in CE Europe and the Baltics,Balkans,VIE n LTN


Eurowings has also a base in Kosovo of all places: https://newscloud.eurowings.com/en/pres ... stina.html

LuxuryTravelled wrote:
You would think that Volotea would be a more natural fit for easyJet - many of their bases are the same (Venice/Nantes/Bordeaux)...


That could make sense too. Airplane type is also the same (Airbus). On the other hand Volotea flies a few domestic flights in Spain and easyJet hasn't touched domestic Spain since the crisis. But I don't see that as a major issue.

MCTSET wrote:
With low oil prices this summer Norwegian have to make something out of it, or investors will completely loose hope, I am definitely supporting Norwegian as the collapse of an airline its size will be devestating to the industry, and take time to recover.


Umm? Norwegian is quite marginal today in intra-European flights. If Norwegian goes burst tomorrow, easyJet, Ryanair, Vueling/Level and Wizz Air will jump on most of their routes in a minute. Long haul is a bit trickier but there is Level, Eurowings long-haul and some other minor carriers (Corsair, XL Airways, etc.)


Their base in PRN is there only because they have a deal with local tour operators who are selling most of their flights. If you go to their website and try to book a flight you will be shocked when you see how much they charge. Prices to DUS are easily €200 one way without luggage. EW will survive there as long as they work with various Reiseburos.
 
ilari
Posts: 190
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 11:26 pm

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:26 pm

In Northern Europe Finland is most under served. RyanAir is leaving TMP for good, but focuses on LPP instead, as St Petersburg is less than two hours drive away. Wizz is doing ok at TKU with lots of industry nearby, and Helsinki isn't too far away. Of course EasyJet and Norwegian serve HEL but in all Finland is far behind other Nordic countries in LCC service.
 
Nickd92
Posts: 68
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:01 pm

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:14 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
IMO in the long term easyJet, Ryanair and Wizz Air will remain. Transavia, Eurowings or Vueling/Level are already zombies backed by their groups.

Those 3 major low-cost groups will grow by taking over market share by bankrupt carriers. For instance, Hungary after MALEV's collapse (Ryanair and Wizz Air's gain). In the UK, Monarch (Ryanair and easyJet's gain). There are still quite a few small carriers in Europe (specially in Eastern Europe or the Balkans) that will go under sooner or later.


The biggest one to gain from the Monarch despise was Jet2 and not anyone else. easyJet ignored BHX then, before Monarch demise and even now. They don't have a LBA base, committed to expansion this year, nearly 2 summers later, from MAN. LTN expanded but Wizz Air also gained a foothold. And was for LGW - BA won that battle and the slots.

Ryanair likewise; added an extra aircraft at MAN, nothing into STN or LTN, ignored LGW, and remained stagnant at BHX and LBA.

easyJet, Ryanair only won won in terms of Yield and Revenue.
 
MCTSET
Topic Author
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:45 pm

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:50 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
marcogr12 wrote:
Eurowings has no bases in central europe..Only Germany,Austria and Palma Mallorca..Wizzair has bases in CE Europe and the Baltics,Balkans,VIE n LTN


Eurowings has also a base in Kosovo of all places: https://newscloud.eurowings.com/en/pres ... stina.html

LuxuryTravelled wrote:
You would think that Volotea would be a more natural fit for easyJet - many of their bases are the same (Venice/Nantes/Bordeaux)...


That could make sense too. Airplane type is also the same (Airbus). On the other hand Volotea flies a few domestic flights in Spain and easyJet hasn't touched domestic Spain since the crisis. But I don't see that as a major issue.

MCTSET wrote:
With low oil prices this summer Norwegian have to make something out of it, or investors will completely loose hope, I am definitely supporting Norwegian as the collapse of an airline its size will be devestating to the industry, and take time to recover.


Umm? Norwegian is quite marginal today in intra-European flights. If Norwegian goes burst tomorrow, easyJet, Ryanair, Vueling/Level and Wizz Air will jump on most of their routes in a minute. Long haul is a bit trickier but there is Level, Eurowings long-haul and some other minor carriers (Corsair, XL Airways, etc.)



How is 100 737s give or take flying multiple sectors a day around Europe marginal. As I said it will take time for Europe to recover the hole that Norwegian will leave. It will eventually but not in a minute.
 
marcogr12
Posts: 250
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:36 pm

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:08 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
marcogr12 wrote:
Eurowings has no bases in central europe..Only Germany,Austria and Palma Mallorca..Wizzair has bases in CE Europe and the Baltics,Balkans,VIE n LTN


Eurowings has also a base in Kosovo of all places: https://newscloud.eurowings.com/en/pres ... stina.html

LuxuryTravelled wrote:
You would think that Volotea would be a more natural fit for easyJet - many of their bases are the same (Venice/Nantes/Bordeaux)...


That could make sense too. Airplane type is also the same (Airbus). On the other hand Volotea flies a few domestic flights in Spain and easyJet hasn't touched domestic Spain since the crisis. But I don't see that as a major issue.

MCTSET wrote:
With low oil prices this summer Norwegian have to make something out of it, or investors will completely loose hope, I am definitely supporting Norwegian as the collapse of an airline its size will be devestating to the industry, and take time to recover.


Umm? Norwegian is quite marginal today in intra-European flights. If Norwegian goes burst tomorrow, easyJet, Ryanair, Vueling/Level and Wizz Air will jump on most of their routes in a minute. Long haul is a bit trickier but there is Level, Eurowings long-haul and some other minor carriers (Corsair, XL Airways, etc.)


Kosovo is not Central Europe..It belongs to the Balkans and it's only been announced recently
Flying is breathing..no planes no life..
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5385
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:10 pm

MCTSET wrote:
How is 100 737s give or take flying multiple sectors a day around Europe marginal. As I said it will take time for Europe to recover the hole that Norwegian will leave. It will eventually but not in a minute.


According to Google, Air Berlin (+NIKI) had 144 aircrafts at the time they went bankrupt. It took nothing to recover. easyJet, Ryanair/Lauda, Wizz Air, Eurowings took over their routes as soon as they could. Other than DUS (which I think is still slightly down in PAX numbers) the new competition has taken Berlin or Vienna to a new record level of passengers.
 
vandoc
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:54 pm

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:04 pm

senatorflyer wrote:
As far as I recall Eurowings’ financials didn’t improve a single bit, the contrary is the case. Also Wizzair made a €275m net profit in 2018 while Eurowings had an EBIT of €-231m. Wouldn’t call that healthy.


Before 4U took over all flights beside FRA and MUC, LH made a huge loss well over 500 million on these flights. EW and 4U improved the balance sheet and in 2017 they made a profit. In 18 they made a significant loss due to the integration of some airberlin parts. EW is expected to turn a profit in 2019. Seeing from where they started, the tendency is positive.

marcogr12 wrote:
Eurowings has no bases in central europe..Only Germany,Austria and Palma Mallorca..Wizzair has bases in CE Europe and the Baltics,Balkans,VIE n LTN

Mea culpa, I meant the DACH-Region, so Germany, Austria and so on. In my atlas, back when I was in school, Poland or Hungary were still in eastern Europe and central Europe was DACH :).

However the point was, EWs homemarket isn't just western Germany and further bases in Europe are planned.

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