senatorflyer
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 10:57 am

Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:13 pm

vandoc wrote:
senatorflyer wrote:
As far as I recall Eurowings’ financials didn’t improve a single bit, the contrary is the case. Also Wizzair made a €275m net profit in 2018 while Eurowings had an EBIT of €-231m. Wouldn’t call that healthy.


Before 4U took over all flights beside FRA and MUC, LH made a huge loss well over 500 million on these flights. EW and 4U improved the balance sheet and in 2017 they made a profit. In 18 they made a significant loss due to the integration of some airberlin parts. EW is expected to turn a profit in 2019. Seeing from where they started, the tendency is positive.

marcogr12 wrote:
Eurowings has no bases in central europe..Only Germany,Austria and Palma Mallorca..Wizzair has bases in CE Europe and the Baltics,Balkans,VIE n LTN

Mea culpa, I meant the DACH-Region, so Germany, Austria and so on. In my atlas, back when I was in school, Poland or Hungary were still in eastern Europe and central Europe was DACH :).

However the point was, EWs homemarket isn't just western Germany and further bases in Europe are planned.


Most likely they have made only a profit that year because Air Berlin went bust. This year started really bad and all previous years EW (Germanwings) have made a loss. Their cost structure is not much different to LH so it’s pretty useless as LCC.

https://investor-relations.lufthansagro ... 19-1-e.pdf And the losses get worse and worse.
 
User avatar
PatrickZ80
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Re: European LCC

Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:41 pm

Blerg wrote:
MCTSET wrote:
VIE will be very important, the reason why there is so much expansion at VIE is because the airport is offering a rebate of €540 euros per 100 pax, and it increases for more pax flow in the airport, this is for based airlines btw. Lauda is interesting but again the market seems so full for Central Europe to med flights, and popular city shuttles is easyJet’s bread and butter, so we will see


Yes but what happens when winter comes and when demand to the seaside resorts drops? Who will then fill those high density airplanes?


Even during the winter places like the Canary Islands are still comfortably warm, although not as warm as in the summer of course. Since these destinations are a bit further away, this means longer flights resulting in less flights but an equal number or flying hours. Wizzair even flies to Dubai (DWC) from several of their bases.
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:38 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
MCTSET wrote:
VIE will be very important, the reason why there is so much expansion at VIE is because the airport is offering a rebate of €540 euros per 100 pax, and it increases for more pax flow in the airport, this is for based airlines btw. Lauda is interesting but again the market seems so full for Central Europe to med flights, and popular city shuttles is easyJet’s bread and butter, so we will see


Yes but what happens when winter comes and when demand to the seaside resorts drops? Who will then fill those high density airplanes?


Even during the winter places like the Canary Islands are still comfortably warm, although not as warm as in the summer of course. Since these destinations are a bit further away, this means longer flights resulting in less flights but an equal number or flying hours. Wizzair even flies to Dubai (DWC) from several of their bases.


I understand that but I wonder if there is enough demand for all of them to serve these winter markets, demand drops compared to summer.

I wonder if W6 considered introducing Dubai from Vienna. Might be a tough market with EK in Vienna and FZ in BTS.
 
finnishway
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:27 am

Europe is just waiting for more cobaolidation. Volotea for example will soon be bought by larger LCC. Just a matter of time.
 
VSMUT
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:36 am

finnishway wrote:
Europe is just waiting for more cobaolidation.


What makes you think so?
 
finnishway
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:48 am

VSMUT wrote:
finnishway wrote:
Europe is just waiting for more cobaolidation.


What makes you think so?


Sorry my typo. I meant to write consolidation.

But it is inevitable that there will be a few large groups in Europe just like in US. Small independent airlines just can’t compete in this industry.

https://www.google.fi/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwyman/2018/10/30/for-european-airlines-consolidation-has-become-both-necessary-and-inevitable/amp/

https://www.google.fi/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/02/europes-airline-sector-is-prime-for-consolidation-lufthansa-ceo.html
 
SIVB
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:54 am

SCQ83 wrote:
Volotea was set by the same founders of Vueling so it was born to be sold to IAG. Private equity 101. Back in the day Vueling was an independent carrier born to compete with Clickair (Iberia's low-cost carrier). Iberia purchased Vueling and merge it with Clickair and in the process the original Vueling people made some money.


Actually, Clickair was born to compete with Vueling, not backwards like you said. VY was created in 2004, and Iberia tried to buy them only to meet resistance from their founders Carlos Muñoz and Lazaro Ros. Apparently, they had big plans for VY including a big base in Madrid, and IB felt threatened. So their answer was the creation of Clickair in 2006, which basically was a quick transfer of planes, routes and passengers in BCN. By 2008 they were both bleeding money, as the market couldn't support at the time 2 local LCCs, plus Spanair. There was a coup d'état in Vueling's management that took control away from Muñoz & Ros and sold the company to Iberia, merging it with Clickair.

Going back to the discussion, I think that Ryanair, easyJet and Wizzair are well positioned to survive for a long time. But I think all 3 of them will have sort of a identity crisis: Ryanair will try to complicate things with new companies under the umbrella corporation only to realize that they need to simplify again the structure; easyJet will struggle with it's higher cost base and leisure/business focus; and Wizzair will try to go too big and be everywhere but retreat to its eastern stronghold.

Vueling will survive under IAG's umbrella, so will Eurowings under LH Group. The former will grow in local markets where is strong, the latter will grow through acquisitions (sorry to see you go Brussels, watching you Austrian...). Smaller players will appear and disappear from time to time.

A big unknown for me is Norwegian... I'm not sure about their future, maybe they will slowly shrink until one of the big holdings buy them, of maybe they will go big themselves. Time will only tell...
 
VSMUT
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:18 am

finnishway wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
finnishway wrote:
Europe is just waiting for more cobaolidation.


What makes you think so?


Sorry my typo. I meant to write consolidation.

But it is inevitable that there will be a few large groups in Europe just like in US. Small independent airlines just can’t compete in this industry.


The US can't be used as the precedent for everything. What they did over there was crazy, such consolidation would never be tolerated in Europe. The US development of consolidation isn't being mirrored in other parts of the world either.

Also worth noting that Europeans travel more and the continent has twice the population of the US.
 
finnishway
Posts: 562
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:33 am

VSMUT wrote:
finnishway wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

What makes you think so?


Sorry my typo. I meant to write consolidation.

But it is inevitable that there will be a few large groups in Europe just like in US. Small independent airlines just can’t compete in this industry.


The US can't be used as the precedent for everything. What they did over there was crazy, such consolidation would never be tolerated in Europe. The US development of consolidation isn't being mirrored in other parts of the world either.

Also worth noting that Europeans travel more and the continent has twice the population of the US.


You may not want it but it will happen. You can count it yourself that Lufthansa Group, IAG, Ryanair, easyJet and AF-KLM already carry huge majority of passengers in Europe.

It is just matter of time that airlines like Alitalia, SAS, TAP, Norwegian, Volotea, Air Baltic and many smaller will either disappear or will be integrated into larger group. Yes, there will be smaller airlines in the future also, but they are not really threat to larger groups and larger groups also need smaller airlines to feed traffic.

Wizz Air may also be integrated in to one of the groups. Although their costbase is probably lowest in Europe which is good for them.

There will be more airlines in Europe to go bankrupt this year.
 
VSMUT
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:34 am

finnishway wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
finnishway wrote:

Sorry my typo. I meant to write consolidation.

But it is inevitable that there will be a few large groups in Europe just like in US. Small independent airlines just can’t compete in this industry.


The US can't be used as the precedent for everything. What they did over there was crazy, such consolidation would never be tolerated in Europe. The US development of consolidation isn't being mirrored in other parts of the world either.

Also worth noting that Europeans travel more and the continent has twice the population of the US.


You may not want it but it will happen. You can count it yourself that Lufthansa Group, IAG, Ryanair, easyJet and AF-KLM already carry huge majority of passengers in Europe.

It is just matter of time that airlines like Alitalia, SAS, TAP, Norwegian, Volotea, Air Baltic and many smaller will either disappear or will be integrated into larger group. Yes, there will be smaller airlines in the future also, but they are not really threat to larger groups and larger groups also need smaller airlines to feed traffic.

Wizz Air may also be integrated in to one of the groups. Although their costbase is probably lowest in Europe which is good for them.

There will be more airlines in Europe to go bankrupt this year.


And new ones will rise, as has always been the case. This is nothing new, it's a cyclus that has been running for ages.
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:53 am

finnishway wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
finnishway wrote:

Sorry my typo. I meant to write consolidation.

But it is inevitable that there will be a few large groups in Europe just like in US. Small independent airlines just can’t compete in this industry.


The US can't be used as the precedent for everything. What they did over there was crazy, such consolidation would never be tolerated in Europe. The US development of consolidation isn't being mirrored in other parts of the world either.

Also worth noting that Europeans travel more and the continent has twice the population of the US.


You may not want it but it will happen. You can count it yourself that Lufthansa Group, IAG, Ryanair, easyJet and AF-KLM already carry huge majority of passengers in Europe.

It is just matter of time that airlines like Alitalia, SAS, TAP, Norwegian, Volotea, Air Baltic and many smaller will either disappear or will be integrated into larger group. Yes, there will be smaller airlines in the future also, but they are not really threat to larger groups and larger groups also need smaller airlines to feed traffic.

Wizz Air may also be integrated in to one of the groups. Although their costbase is probably lowest in Europe which is good for them.

There will be more airlines in Europe to go bankrupt this year.


I think Ryanair have the lowest cost base but only marginally, this is because they own the vast majority of their aircraft and don’t have to lease them as wizz do which is more expensive than owning even with a mammoth discount from airbus.
 
finnishway
Posts: 562
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2012 5:17 pm

Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:58 am

VSMUT wrote:
finnishway wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

The US can't be used as the precedent for everything. What they did over there was crazy, such consolidation would never be tolerated in Europe. The US development of consolidation isn't being mirrored in other parts of the world either.

Also worth noting that Europeans travel more and the continent has twice the population of the US.


You may not want it but it will happen. You can count it yourself that Lufthansa Group, IAG, Ryanair, easyJet and AF-KLM already carry huge majority of passengers in Europe.

It is just matter of time that airlines like Alitalia, SAS, TAP, Norwegian, Volotea, Air Baltic and many smaller will either disappear or will be integrated into larger group. Yes, there will be smaller airlines in the future also, but they are not really threat to larger groups and larger groups also need smaller airlines to feed traffic.

Wizz Air may also be integrated in to one of the groups. Although their costbase is probably lowest in Europe which is good for them.

There will be more airlines in Europe to go bankrupt this year.


And new ones will rise, as has always been the case. This is nothing new, it's a cyclus that has been running for ages.


That is true, but it is very unlikely that new airline would become a major player in the industry and could actually compete against these large groups.

But you missed the point. Those already large airlines I mentioned that are currently operating will probably be part of history in the near future. Even without mergers you just need economic downturn and airline like Ryanair and they drive competition out.
 
Blerg
Posts: 2351
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:34 am

finnishway wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
finnishway wrote:

You may not want it but it will happen. You can count it yourself that Lufthansa Group, IAG, Ryanair, easyJet and AF-KLM already carry huge majority of passengers in Europe.

It is just matter of time that airlines like Alitalia, SAS, TAP, Norwegian, Volotea, Air Baltic and many smaller will either disappear or will be integrated into larger group. Yes, there will be smaller airlines in the future also, but they are not really threat to larger groups and larger groups also need smaller airlines to feed traffic.

Wizz Air may also be integrated in to one of the groups. Although their costbase is probably lowest in Europe which is good for them.

There will be more airlines in Europe to go bankrupt this year.


And new ones will rise, as has always been the case. This is nothing new, it's a cyclus that has been running for ages.


That is true, but it is very unlikely that new airline would become a major player in the industry and could actually compete against these large groups.

But you missed the point. Those already large airlines I mentioned that are currently operating will probably be part of history in the near future. Even without mergers you just need economic downturn and airline like Ryanair and they drive competition out.



I disagree with you and like someone mentioned above, the US is a different case and shouldn't be compared to Europe. JetBlue is the youngest US airline that made it and they were founded back in 2000.

On the other hand, look at Europe, since then we had more players that were founded and actually made it. Wizz Air has 104 aircraft and was founded in 2003. Aegean was founded in 1999 and has 49 aircraft. Blue Air was founded in 2004 and has 23 aircraft. Volotea was founded in 2012 and has 32 aircraft....

Most of the airlines in Europe are linked to a certain region, Ryanair is truly the only exception as they have a pan-European presence. Even with Wizz Air's growth they are still focused on eastern Europe and the Balkans. On top of that, European legacies are struggling to maintain their LCC offspring, just look at the operational mess that Vueling becomes every summer, Eurowings has horrible financial performance while Transavia struggles with its identity crisis.

So I don't think a consolidation is coming any time soon.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:52 am

Consolidation in Europe will take longer but it is already on its way.

AF-KLM
IAG
LH Group

Who would have thought that some of the carriers that now form part of those 3 groups would have merged if looking at things at the turn of the century? Likely most would have laughed at it off as impossible, given national pride reasons usually.

These airlines have all been slowly seeking new opportunities to add new investments to their businesses. Each now has a strategy that takes in each market sector, along with a broader strategy to grow their reach in Europe.

Politics will be a strong barrier in many cases to some potential integration opportunities, but I do see some further movement in the LCC sector in the next few years.
 
VSMUT
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:35 am

Blerg wrote:
finnishway wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

And new ones will rise, as has always been the case. This is nothing new, it's a cyclus that has been running for ages.


That is true, but it is very unlikely that new airline would become a major player in the industry and could actually compete against these large groups.

But you missed the point. Those already large airlines I mentioned that are currently operating will probably be part of history in the near future. Even without mergers you just need economic downturn and airline like Ryanair and they drive competition out.



I disagree with you and like someone mentioned above, the US is a different case and shouldn't be compared to Europe. JetBlue is the youngest US airline that made it and they were founded back in 2000.

On the other hand, look at Europe, since then we had more players that were founded and actually made it. Wizz Air has 104 aircraft and was founded in 2003. Aegean was founded in 1999 and has 49 aircraft. Blue Air was founded in 2004 and has 23 aircraft. Volotea was founded in 2012 and has 32 aircraft....

Most of the airlines in Europe are linked to a certain region, Ryanair is truly the only exception as they have a pan-European presence. Even with Wizz Air's growth they are still focused on eastern Europe and the Balkans. On top of that, European legacies are struggling to maintain their LCC offspring, just look at the operational mess that Vueling becomes every summer, Eurowings has horrible financial performance while Transavia struggles with its identity crisis.

So I don't think a consolidation is coming any time soon.


I was going to mention pretty much the same.

On top, you also have airlines like LOT or SAS, whom were destined for bankruptcy or takeover 10 years ago, but are now strong and thriving brands. Does anybody really see LOT as a takeover target any more? Even TAROM has proven remarkably resilient in the onslought of ULCCs at OTP.

I did a bit of work for another company that through the takeover of a bunch of ACMI, regional and a single small LCC carrier is planning to start a operations with almost 60 planes soon. So something is definitely happening, it isn't only consolidation.
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3204
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:45 am

VSMUT wrote:
Blerg wrote:
finnishway wrote:

That is true, but it is very unlikely that new airline would become a major player in the industry and could actually compete against these large groups.

But you missed the point. Those already large airlines I mentioned that are currently operating will probably be part of history in the near future. Even without mergers you just need economic downturn and airline like Ryanair and they drive competition out.



I disagree with you and like someone mentioned above, the US is a different case and shouldn't be compared to Europe. JetBlue is the youngest US airline that made it and they were founded back in 2000.

On the other hand, look at Europe, since then we had more players that were founded and actually made it. Wizz Air has 104 aircraft and was founded in 2003. Aegean was founded in 1999 and has 49 aircraft. Blue Air was founded in 2004 and has 23 aircraft. Volotea was founded in 2012 and has 32 aircraft....

Most of the airlines in Europe are linked to a certain region, Ryanair is truly the only exception as they have a pan-European presence. Even with Wizz Air's growth they are still focused on eastern Europe and the Balkans. On top of that, European legacies are struggling to maintain their LCC offspring, just look at the operational mess that Vueling becomes every summer, Eurowings has horrible financial performance while Transavia struggles with its identity crisis.

So I don't think a consolidation is coming any time soon.


I was going to mention pretty much the same.

On top, you also have airlines like LOT or SAS, whom were destined for bankruptcy or takeover 10 years ago, but are now strong and thriving brands. Does anybody really see LOT as a takeover target any more? Even TAROM has proven remarkably resilient in the onslought of ULCCs at OTP.

I did a bit of work for another company that through the takeover of a bunch of ACMI, regional and a single small LCC carrier is planning to start a operations with almost 60 planes soon. So something is definitely happening, it isn't only consolidation.


There is always bound to be opportunities out there in some way, shape or form as the industry evolves, but some seemingly ruling out further consolidation as a possibility seeks a bit myopic.

Past history tells us to expect the unexpected, so I wouldn’t be ruling anything out.

In the US for example, given the significant changes to the competitive landscape, some carriers have come and gone, and others strengthened, since consolidation has occurred, but new carriers like Moxy appear to be still seeing room to come into the market.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3012
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:55 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Blerg wrote:


I disagree with you and like someone mentioned above, the US is a different case and shouldn't be compared to Europe. JetBlue is the youngest US airline that made it and they were founded back in 2000.

On the other hand, look at Europe, since then we had more players that were founded and actually made it. Wizz Air has 104 aircraft and was founded in 2003. Aegean was founded in 1999 and has 49 aircraft. Blue Air was founded in 2004 and has 23 aircraft. Volotea was founded in 2012 and has 32 aircraft....

Most of the airlines in Europe are linked to a certain region, Ryanair is truly the only exception as they have a pan-European presence. Even with Wizz Air's growth they are still focused on eastern Europe and the Balkans. On top of that, European legacies are struggling to maintain their LCC offspring, just look at the operational mess that Vueling becomes every summer, Eurowings has horrible financial performance while Transavia struggles with its identity crisis.

So I don't think a consolidation is coming any time soon.


I was going to mention pretty much the same.

On top, you also have airlines like LOT or SAS, whom were destined for bankruptcy or takeover 10 years ago, but are now strong and thriving brands. Does anybody really see LOT as a takeover target any more? Even TAROM has proven remarkably resilient in the onslought of ULCCs at OTP.

I did a bit of work for another company that through the takeover of a bunch of ACMI, regional and a single small LCC carrier is planning to start a operations with almost 60 planes soon. So something is definitely happening, it isn't only consolidation.


There is always bound to be opportunities out there in some way, shape or form as the industry evolves, but some seemingly ruling out further consolidation as a possibility seeks a bit myopic.

Past history tells us to expect the unexpected, so I wouldn’t be ruling anything out.

In the US for example, given the significant changes to the competitive landscape, some carriers have come and gone, and others strengthened, since consolidation has occurred, but new carriers like Moxy appear to be still seeing room to come into the market.


And again, the US market can't just be seen as a precedent. Twice the population, more people travel and lastly, governments here won't accept further consolidation. There is also not a debilitating lack of pilots in Europe, a major hindrance in the US.
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3204
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:03 pm

VSMUT wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

I was going to mention pretty much the same.

On top, you also have airlines like LOT or SAS, whom were destined for bankruptcy or takeover 10 years ago, but are now strong and thriving brands. Does anybody really see LOT as a takeover target any more? Even TAROM has proven remarkably resilient in the onslought of ULCCs at OTP.

I did a bit of work for another company that through the takeover of a bunch of ACMI, regional and a single small LCC carrier is planning to start a operations with almost 60 planes soon. So something is definitely happening, it isn't only consolidation.


There is always bound to be opportunities out there in some way, shape or form as the industry evolves, but some seemingly ruling out further consolidation as a possibility seeks a bit myopic.

Past history tells us to expect the unexpected, so I wouldn’t be ruling anything out.

In the US for example, given the significant changes to the competitive landscape, some carriers have come and gone, and others strengthened, since consolidation has occurred, but new carriers like Moxy appear to be still seeing room to come into the market.


And again, the US market can't just be seen as a precedent. Twice the population, more people travel and lastly, governments here won't accept further consolidation. There is also not a debilitating lack of pilots in Europe, a major hindrance in the US.


I am acutely aware they are different situations, but as I alluded to in an earlier post, things aren’t always what they seem.

People that claim that national interest will stop consolidation occurring have overlooked the amount of change already.

Things will happen when they happen, but in this industry it pays to have an open mind as it can be a rollercoaster ride.
 
BrianDromey
Posts: 2445
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2006 2:23 am

Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:17 pm

The US market is not directly comparable for many reasons, but one Ive not seen mentioned is the much higher use of 50-90 seat regional jets to promote higher frequency, much higher point-to-hub flying and much less true point-to-point. The European LCCs have the philosophy of "stack them high and sell them cheap", Ryanair and Wizz especially. easyJet are slightly more up-market, slightly higher cost base and although able to complete on high volume routes against the "EU3", they are much less successful against FR and W6.

I think the likes of Volotea have a good business model, much more like Spirit than the FR/W6/U2 with low frequency flights, 150 seat aircraft and low capital costs. They mainly operate outside the major FR/W6 bases. The risk to them is if FR takes interest - but with both W6 and FR moving to ~200+ seat aircraft, they have a lot of seats to fill.
 
Blerg
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: European LCC

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:29 pm

I think another major difference between the US and Europe (or more likely the EU) is that over here we also have airlines from the Euro-Mediterranean region which function on a completely different model and not always based on sane economic and business principles. Some of those include Aeroflot, Turkish Airlines and pretty much all MENA airlines. How many serious competitors do the US carriers have from Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean? This is especially interesting when you look at the summer holiday traffic and how many different airlines are there on the market. I mean even nearly bankrupt Greece has Ellinair which is growing at a rapid pace.
 
senatorflyer
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 10:57 am

Re: European LCC

Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:59 am

vandoc wrote:
MCTSET wrote:
senatorflyer wrote:
Wizzair, EasyJet, Vueling and Ryanair will be fine in future. Level isn’t really an airline and relatively small so I’d assume they will be ok as well. Eurowings on the other hand never made any money, neither did Germanwings really. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they will shrink or being integrated back into the various LH Group brands.

And then there is Norwegian. Financially unstable and all over the place. So there will be adjustments for sure the question is just how.



I agree on eurowings I don’t think their home market of western Germany is large enough, mainly to do with it is already decently served by other airlines, it just seems to mean they are duplicating routes to popular destinations.



Huh? Eurowings has bases all over Central Europe with further bases planed. Wizzair is only 2/3 of Eurowings. After taking over all decentral flights from LH, which were bleeding money, they managed to improve the result in every year. Within the next 2 years they will turn a profit. Until then, LH is backing its daughter.
I think it is more probable that OS and EN will be integrated into EW. Maybe LH will buy Norwegian or other smaller airlines as growth for EW.


Read the news lately? Lol
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1186
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:44 am

Re: European LCC

Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:27 am

StTim wrote:
upperdeckfan wrote:

Regarding FR exposure to 73M fiasco, I don't see it as a significant risk, 738's are still relatively young aircraft fully capable to safely get people from here to there. LCC traffic doessn't care about flying on a brand new ultimate generation aircraft.


Part of the very low cost model is to move on the frames before expensive heavy checks. If the MAX continues to the point they need to start putting frames through those checks then it will impact FR.

I suspect MOL will be getting Boeing to pay if that is the case.


I wouldn't be so sure in the case of Ryanair. They have over 100 aircraft that are over 10 years old which is a big chunk of the fleet and they're not moving aircraft on as quickly as they have done in the past. Currently, their oldest -800 was delivered in late-2002. I find it hard to believe that their older aircraft have not needed heavy checks.

It's similar with easyJet. I know quite a few of the A319's are due to leave the fleet soon, but some of them are between 10-15 years old. Apart from the ex-GB Airways aircraft that were moved on relatively quickly. They also don't appear to have disposed of any of the oldest A320's that started entering the fleet from 2008.
 
vandoc
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:54 pm

Re: European LCC

Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:43 am

senatorflyer wrote:
[
Read the news lately? Lol


Yep, nothing regarding integrating EW back into LH as you stated. In fact, with only one AOC and less costs EW might compete with more European bases. The rest isn't surprising. That the Dashs will leave the fleet and the mess with multiple AOCs was already well known. Whether the long haul routes will stay under another brand or will be cut is still to be seen. In my opinion EW is here to stay.
 
Lewton
Posts: 100
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:46 pm

Re: European LCC

Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:54 am

Great to see Lufthansa putting some order in the Eurowings mess.
Also great to see Brussels Airlines staying as a network airline of the group. I hope there has not been any permanent damage done yet.
 
MCTSET
Topic Author
Posts: 102
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Re: European LCC

Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:18 am

I think Eurowings core market is too small for the capacity it has inherited. They were meant to be the LCC for west Germany such as Dusseldorf and cologne, but they was too much capacity, so they set up multiple bases with different AOCs to try and fill these seats by flying to different places in Europe. We will see how this will work out. I is expected that there costs are higher than Ryan and wizz, those two airlines are exceptional, they are more inline with easyJet level, however with Easyjet they connect the dots to Europe’s most popular destinations, meaning strong demand throughout the whole year (more or less) without the need for exceptionally low prices to stimulate the market. (Ryan wizz model). The problem is that the major cities are already well connected by easyJet and national carriers. It’s tough for them just ask Norwegian.
 
Geoff1947
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Re: European LCC

Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:18 am

These discussions tend to get confused because there are a number of small regional players and ‘LCCs’ embedded in the major groups.

The four big independent LCCs are ( 2018 passenger numbers from Wikipedia )

Ryanair 139.2 million
EasyJet 88.04 million
Norwegian 37.34 million
Wizz 33.81 million

All in Europe’s top 10.

Nobody else comes anywhere close.

I believe Eurowings and Vuelling are a bit smaller than Wizz, with Transavia about half their size.

Geoff
 
Lewton
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Re: European LCC

Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:06 pm

Geoff1947 wrote:
These discussions tend to get confused because there are a number of small regional players and ‘LCCs’ embedded in the major groups.

The four big independent LCCs are ( 2018 passenger numbers from Wikipedia )

Ryanair 139.2 million
EasyJet 88.04 million
Norwegian 37.34 million
Wizz 33.81 million

All in Europe’s top 10.

Nobody else comes anywhere close.

I believe Eurowings and Vuelling are a bit smaller than Wizz, with Transavia about half their size.

Geoff


Vueling is smaller, as it has 120-130 aircraft.
Eurowings stands at around 150-160, so very comparable to Norwegian and even a bit bigger than Wizz in terms of aircraft flown. Would you count as Eurowings only the flights operated by Eurowings or would you include there the flights operated by German Wings, Brussels etc?
 
Geoff1947
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Re: European LCC

Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:32 pm

Lewton wrote:
Geoff1947 wrote:
These discussions tend to get confused because there are a number of small regional players and ‘LCCs’ embedded in the major groups.

The four big independent LCCs are ( 2018 passenger numbers from Wikipedia )

Ryanair 139.2 million
EasyJet 88.04 million
Norwegian 37.34 million
Wizz 33.81 million

All in Europe’s top 10.

Nobody else comes anywhere close.

I believe Eurowings and Vuelling are a bit smaller than Wizz, with Transavia about half their size.

Geoff


Vueling is smaller, as it has 120-130 aircraft.
Eurowings stands at around 150-160, so very comparable to Norwegian and even a bit bigger than Wizz in terms of aircraft flown. Would you count as Eurowings only the flights operated by Eurowings or would you include there the flights operated by German Wings, Brussels etc?


As Eurowings is part of Lufthansa I’m not really interested in how their size is measured. It is the size of Lufthansa Group that matters. These embedded LCCs exist primarily to defend markets against the Independent LCCs.

Geoff
 
senatorflyer
Posts: 323
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Re: European LCC

Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:19 pm

Geoff1947 wrote:
Lewton wrote:
Geoff1947 wrote:
These discussions tend to get confused because there are a number of small regional players and ‘LCCs’ embedded in the major groups.

The four big independent LCCs are ( 2018 passenger numbers from Wikipedia )

Ryanair 139.2 million
EasyJet 88.04 million
Norwegian 37.34 million
Wizz 33.81 million

All in Europe’s top 10.

Nobody else comes anywhere close.

I believe Eurowings and Vuelling are a bit smaller than Wizz, with Transavia about half their size.

Geoff


Vueling is smaller, as it has 120-130 aircraft.
Eurowings stands at around 150-160, so very comparable to Norwegian and even a bit bigger than Wizz in terms of aircraft flown. Would you count as Eurowings only the flights operated by Eurowings or would you include there the flights operated by German Wings, Brussels etc?


As Eurowings is part of Lufthansa I’m not really interested in how their size is measured. It is the size of Lufthansa Group that matters. These embedded LCCs exist primarily to defend markets against the Independent LCCs.

Geoff


Not really, if those embedded lcc don’t earn money they will be shut down. Shareholders will be angry otherwise. Reorg taking place as we speak at Eurowings.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: European LCC

Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:40 pm

Blerg wrote:
I wonder if W6 considered introducing Dubai from Vienna. Might be a tough market with EK in Vienna and FZ in BTS.


And now even more tough as AirArabia has announced Sharjah to Vienna. Sharjah is right next to Dubai and they could capture a lot of local demand with these flights.

By the way, Vienna isn't the first AirArabia destination in that part of the world. They already serve Prague from Sharjah.
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:06 pm

Tbh W6 with the 321xlr can make a profit from routes too India from Vienna Budapest and others, if the price is right the plane will be full.

I know full plane doesn’t mean profit but for LCCs load factor much more important than for FSC, more bums on seats the more food, bags, priority and other rubbish they can sell.
 
DUSZRH
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Re: European LCC

Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:52 pm

Especially, as FR learned, people are much more willing to spend on ancillaries on longer flights. So there is a sweet spot for LCCs somewhere in the 2-4h range I would say. Somewhere the yield premium for FSC comes in (Business class, driving higher margins). Will be interesting to see how it develops.
 
mig21uti
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Re: European LCC

Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:04 am

A321XLR and an eventual 797 (ryan is expectant as they say actual WB could not operate LH Low cost flights profitable) could expands LCC markets to new levels. Wizz has a few on order. I dont mean 10 hs flights but 6/8 hrs flights
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Sat Jun 29, 2019 6:48 am

MCTSET wrote:
Tbh W6 with the 321xlr can make a profit from routes too India from Vienna Budapest and others, if the price is right the plane will be full.

I know full plane doesn’t mean profit but for LCCs load factor much more important than for FSC, more bums on seats the more food, bags, priority and other rubbish they can sell.


I highly doubt Wizz Air would consider Delhi from Vienna since they would have to compete against Air India and its Dreamliner. I doubt there is much demand for other cities in India from Austria, that is enough demand to sustain non-stop flights.
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:21 pm

Blerg wrote:
MCTSET wrote:
Tbh W6 with the 321xlr can make a profit from routes too India from Vienna Budapest and others, if the price is right the plane will be full.

I know full plane doesn’t mean profit but for LCCs load factor much more important than for FSC, more bums on seats the more food, bags, priority and other rubbish they can sell.


I highly doubt Wizz Air would consider Delhi from Vienna since they would have to compete against Air India and its Dreamliner. I doubt there is much demand for other cities in India from Austria, that is enough demand to sustain non-stop flights.


They absolutely could compete. They utilise a high density 321 will have a better casm, than a 787. And I need to repeat wizz is a LCC, they are not trying to shuttle the Tata family, they will move people for cheapest price, and most people book flights on the basis of price, that’s why LCCs have grown quicker than FSCs. Demand is already there if air India are serving it. So they will be able to steal half of the demand on air India’s service and create even more by having such a low price, Ryanair model of the ignition price.
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:30 pm

MCTSET wrote:
Blerg wrote:
MCTSET wrote:
Tbh W6 with the 321xlr can make a profit from routes too India from Vienna Budapest and others, if the price is right the plane will be full.

I know full plane doesn’t mean profit but for LCCs load factor much more important than for FSC, more bums on seats the more food, bags, priority and other rubbish they can sell.


I highly doubt Wizz Air would consider Delhi from Vienna since they would have to compete against Air India and its Dreamliner. I doubt there is much demand for other cities in India from Austria, that is enough demand to sustain non-stop flights.


They absolutely could compete. They utilise a high density 321 will have a better casm, than a 787. And I need to repeat wizz is a LCC, they are not trying to shuttle the Tata family, they will move people for cheapest price, and most people book flights on the basis of price, that’s why LCCs have grown quicker than FSCs. Demand is already there if air India are serving it. So they will be able to steal half of the demand on air India’s service and create even more by having such a low price, Ryanair model of the ignition price.


Yes but don't forget that AI has OS' network on which it can rely to fill its seats. That should help them as well not to mention their own network and connections in Delhi. Wizz Air would have to rely on price sensitive passengers who don't mind flying in a sardine can for over seven hours.
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jul 25, 2019 7:01 pm

Interesting today wizz announced its Q1 results and (pretty solid) and said that they will be accelerating growth this year from 16% to 20%. This is quite a surprise to many of us as we are hearing and reading of this huge European overcapacity. Are they taking advantage of the MAX situation, or do you think that actually Europe is not suffering from overcapacity but actually weak players?
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:37 pm

MCTSET wrote:
Interesting today wizz announced its Q1 results and (pretty solid) and said that they will be accelerating growth this year from 16% to 20%. This is quite a surprise to many of us as we are hearing and reading of this huge European overcapacity. Are they taking advantage of the MAX situation, or do you think that actually Europe is not suffering from overcapacity but actually weak players?


Don't forget that up until last year, Wizz Air did not really offer flights within Western Europe, they were mostly concentrating on flying between the two sides of the European continent. That could be one of the reasons why they can grow so much, they have a lot of catching up to do in the West.

Let's see where this extra growth comes from, if they keep on expanding in Vienna then I fear Level will be the most affected. From what I remember they already suspended some routes from there.
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:53 pm

with oil prices sitting at roughly $60, and real signs of an increase in the future, keeping costs low will this help airlines brave the winter and reduce this ever expected huge consolidation that is approaching Europe.
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Sat Aug 17, 2019 6:42 am

MCTSET wrote:
with oil prices sitting at roughly $60, and real signs of an increase in the future, keeping costs low will this help airlines brave the winter and reduce this ever expected huge consolidation that is approaching Europe.


People have been talking of a European aviation consolidation for years now and it has not really happened, luckily. Some airlines go but unlike the US, new appear and stay. That's the main difference between the two markets, the US has not had a successful new airline since jetBlue and that was almost two decades ago.
 
SCQ83
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Re: European LCC

Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:21 am

Blerg wrote:
People have been talking of a European aviation consolidation for years now and it has not really happened, luckily. Some airlines go but unlike the US, new appear and stay. That's the main difference between the two markets, the US has not had a successful new airline since jetBlue and that was almost two decades ago.


It has happened. There are quite a few small and mid-sized carriers that have gone under since the financial crisis. On top of my head Air Berlin/NIKI, WOW, MALEV, Primera Air, Spanair, Air Comet, Monarch, BMI, Aerosvit, Transaero, Cyprus Airways, Cobalt, VLM, MAT (Macedonia), B&H Airlines (Bosnia), etc.

I would call that consolidation.
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:30 am

SCQ83 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
People have been talking of a European aviation consolidation for years now and it has not really happened, luckily. Some airlines go but unlike the US, new appear and stay. That's the main difference between the two markets, the US has not had a successful new airline since jetBlue and that was almost two decades ago.


It has happened. There are quite a few small and mid-sized carriers that have gone under since the financial crisis. On top of my head Air Berlin/NIKI, WOW, MALEV, Primera Air, Spanair, Air Comet, Monarch, BMI, Aerosvit, Transaero, Cyprus Airways, Cobalt, VLM, MAT (Macedonia), B&H Airlines (Bosnia), etc.

I would call that consolidation.


I don't think you should since at the same time many new airlines have been founded and have actually made it, something that has not happened in the US for 20 years now.

Furthermore, some of those you listed make no sense since new airlines have replaced them. Two examples being B&H Airlines (Fly Bosnia) and Cyprus Airways which was actually brought back to life while Cobalt might have gone bankrupt but TUS Airways seems to be doing just fine and they were established only in 2016.

Then there are airlines such as Aegean (1999), Blue Air (2004), Volotea (2012), Wizz Air (2003), Smartwings (1997), Ellinair (2014) ... which seem to be doing fine and are actually growing.
 
SCQ83
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Re: European LCC

Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:25 am

Blerg wrote:
I don't think you should since at the same time many new airlines have been founded and have actually made it, something that has not happened in the US for 20 years now.

Furthermore, some of those you listed make no sense since new airlines have replaced them. Two examples being B&H Airlines (Fly Bosnia) and Cyprus Airways which was actually brought back to life while Cobalt might have gone bankrupt but TUS Airways seems to be doing just fine and they were established only in 2016.

Then there are airlines such as Aegean (1999), Blue Air (2004), Volotea (2012), Wizz Air (2003), Smartwings (1997), Ellinair (2014) ... which seem to be doing fine and are actually growing.


I was talking post-GFC (post-2008). Regarding European carriers created post-GFC only Volotea seems to be relatively big. Fly Bosnia (isn't this the first year they fly?) or the new Cyprus Airways are very small, niche carriers that who knows whether they continue if there is a major economic downturn.

BMI (Star Alliance), Air Berlin (oneworld) and Spanair (Star Alliance) were relatively big carriers in the UK, Germany and Spain respectively. Their place has been taken over by IAG, Lufthansa or low-cost carriers (FR, U2, etc.). Countries like Northern Macedonia or Hungary do not have flag carriers anymore. That is consolidation 101. Carriers like Wizz Air have grown tremendously but part of this growth is due to consolidation in the European market (Wizz Air in BUD or SKP are obvious cases).

So in the last 10 years or so there has been a lot of consolidation. Probably not as quick as expected because in Europe there are a lot of national politics, but consolidation nonetheless.
 
MCTSET
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Re: European LCC

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:21 pm

It all seems to be going wrong at Norwegian the minute they recover from problem they are hit with another, and to be honest it is never really the fault of Norwegian but the fault of the aircraft they operate, this time with the incident at FCO, what will this lead too?
 
Blerg
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Re: European LCC

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:52 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
I don't think you should since at the same time many new airlines have been founded and have actually made it, something that has not happened in the US for 20 years now.

Furthermore, some of those you listed make no sense since new airlines have replaced them. Two examples being B&H Airlines (Fly Bosnia) and Cyprus Airways which was actually brought back to life while Cobalt might have gone bankrupt but TUS Airways seems to be doing just fine and they were established only in 2016.

Then there are airlines such as Aegean (1999), Blue Air (2004), Volotea (2012), Wizz Air (2003), Smartwings (1997), Ellinair (2014) ... which seem to be doing fine and are actually growing.


I was talking post-GFC (post-2008). Regarding European carriers created post-GFC only Volotea seems to be relatively big. Fly Bosnia (isn't this the first year they fly?) or the new Cyprus Airways are very small, niche carriers that who knows whether they continue if there is a major economic downturn.

BMI (Star Alliance), Air Berlin (oneworld) and Spanair (Star Alliance) were relatively big carriers in the UK, Germany and Spain respectively. Their place has been taken over by IAG, Lufthansa or low-cost carriers (FR, U2, etc.). Countries like Northern Macedonia or Hungary do not have flag carriers anymore. That is consolidation 101. Carriers like Wizz Air have grown tremendously but part of this growth is due to consolidation in the European market (Wizz Air in BUD or SKP are obvious cases).

So in the last 10 years or so there has been a lot of consolidation. Probably not as quick as expected because in Europe there are a lot of national politics, but consolidation nonetheless.


Wizz Air in SKP did not happen because of consolidation, if anything it was market distortion since they opened a base there thanks to massive subsidies handed out by the North Macedonian government. Even their most recent expansion there is paid for by the taxpayers. So not really a natural expansion as a result of market consolidation but rather due to politics. As for Fly Bosnia, they are brand new but have deep pockets. They are currently flying to the Middle East but are expected to announce a round of European destinations. As for Cyprus, is it really due to pan-European consolidation or because once CY went bankrupt Aegean, Blue Air, TUS and Cobalt all rushed to launch flights out of an extremely seasonal market? Also, did Cobalt go bust due to consolidation or because of bad business moves such as adding a whole bunch of aircraft in a short period of time and because of operational mismanagement the first year? You have completely missed the point here.

Furthermore, it is expected from a young carrier to be much smaller than airlines which have been around for decades so comparing them to BMI (1938), Air Berlin (1979) or Spanair (1988) is tragicomic. You can't take a decade and claim that there is consolidation simply because few airlines have been founded in that period, you need to expand the time-frame to see if there is a pattern. All the airlines listed above were relatively small when the financial crisis hit their home markets and yet they have all managed to remain relevant in their own way. Take Blue Air as an example, they have managed to grow/survive in the highly competitive Romanian market and given your logic they shouldn't be around because the European market is consolidating and because of it there should be fewer and fewer airlines around.

Yes, many airlines have gone bankrupt but others have been founded or have grown tremendously (LOT, Aegean...). To me this looks more like reorganization of the European market rather than consolidation. The US aviation market in the past 20 years is a textbook example of market consolidation.
 
parrotta
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Re: European LCC

Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:08 am

Heard rumors about Wizz cooperation in DWC or AUH possibly with EY targeting India and beyond.
BUD-DWC switches to daily from 3x weekly in october.
 
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LuxuryTravelled
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Re: European LCC

Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:05 am

For me, easyJet + Volotea would make a lot of sense. Lots of existing bases shared - especially in France and Italy where easyJet have been expanding recently (Bordeaux, Nantes, Venice etc).
 
Andy33
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Re: European LCC

Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:16 am

LuxuryTravelled wrote:
For me, easyJet + Volotea would make a lot of sense. Lots of existing bases shared - especially in France and Italy where easyJet have been expanding recently (Bordeaux, Nantes, Venice etc).

And on the fleet/crew compatibilty point, Volotea is gradually shifting from their 717s to A319s. But the same would be true if they sold out to IAG, and there's history there - the same team that founded Vueling and then sold it, went on to found Volotea - note the minimal competition between Vueling and Volotea.
 
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LuxuryTravelled
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Re: European LCC

Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:23 am

Very true Andy, but easyJet love No1 positions in their bases, and this would be one way of getting that. Take the IAG argument as well, just depends on how much value it adds.
 
SCQ83
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Re: European LCC

Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:46 am

Andy33 wrote:
LuxuryTravelled wrote:
For me, easyJet + Volotea would make a lot of sense. Lots of existing bases shared - especially in France and Italy where easyJet have been expanding recently (Bordeaux, Nantes, Venice etc).

And on the fleet/crew compatibilty point, Volotea is gradually shifting from their 717s to A319s. But the same would be true if they sold out to IAG, and there's history there - the same team that founded Vueling and then sold it, went on to found Volotea - note the minimal competition between Vueling and Volotea.


But it doesn't look like IAG is interested in Volotea.

Vueling was a different story. VY was a pain in the ass for Iberia (Clickair), specially in Barcelona. But Volotea? It is not a threat to Vueling (or to easyJet).

I think the issue with Volotea is that they have expanded geographically so much that they don't have dominance anywhere. They also seem to have a very low brand awareness. I bet most people in Spain (despite being a Spanish company) have never heard of Volotea. But it is what happens when you keep away from main airports and main routes.

Maybe if they had focused in a few core markets they would have "annoyed" VY/FR/U2 more so it would be interesting for them to get rid of V7 by purchasing it.

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