rbavfan
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:15 am

crimsonchin wrote:
Revelation wrote:
crimsonchin wrote:
Interesting that every time the lack of engine choice was brought up in all the numerous 737-A320 threads, it was shot down because it doesn't matter much, but suddenly it's "oh we don't know, it could be better with two". Some consistency would be nice, to at least mask an agenda.

Sure, you could complain about that, or you could add something of value to this thread instead.


I could, but why wouldn't I want to point out a sudden and very convenient change in the merits of sole engine choice vs dual, seeing as apparently we love dual engine choices again and they now matter. I hope to be in the next 777X thread where I'm sure we'll be back to loving single engine suppliers again

So, how do you think the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies are faring?


The 787 seems to be doing better since delivery, while the A350 has somewhat "stagnated". Is this due to the 777 replacement cycle not hitting full stride, or the poor A350 and having only RR? One has to wonder.


As the A350's are in the 777 sizes it is due to the 777 replacement cycle. Huge numbers of the 77L & 77W were sold in the last few years. as such analyst have noted they don't need that size replaced yet. and the A350 was not well timed to the replacement cycle. And if Airlines did dump large numbers of 777's early it would tank the resale/leasing markets.
 
rbavfan
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:25 am

xwb565 wrote:
The a350 has met or exceeded all performance guarantees from day one. It has in the last couple of quarters become the most reliable widebody overtaking even the 777. However the smaller widebody will always sell better in a dip. Hence it is no surprise the 787 has sold well.


Actually the A350-900 came in quite a bit heavier than guaranteed & had to have higher T-O weights to compensate for the difference.
 
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Polot
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:31 am

rbavfan wrote:
crimsonchin wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Sure, you could complain about that, or you could add something of value to this thread instead.


I could, but why wouldn't I want to point out a sudden and very convenient change in the merits of sole engine choice vs dual, seeing as apparently we love dual engine choices again and they now matter. I hope to be in the next 777X thread where I'm sure we'll be back to loving single engine suppliers again

So, how do you think the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies are faring?


The 787 seems to be doing better since delivery, while the A350 has somewhat "stagnated". Is this due to the 777 replacement cycle not hitting full stride, or the poor A350 and having only RR? One has to wonder.


As the A350's are in the 777 sizes it is due to the 777 replacement cycle. Huge numbers of the 77L & 77W were sold in the last few years. as such analyst have noted they don't need that size replaced yet. and the A350 was not well timed to the replacement cycle. And if Airlines did dump large numbers of 777's early it would tank the resale/leasing markets.

The 772A/E replacement cycle (~500 planes) is in full swing.

The whole mistimed replacement cycle thing is valid for the A350-1000, but the A359 vs 787 sales is more due to size. Imo the market “sweet spot” has shifted down for most carriers to 789/A333/A339 size. It will only get worse for larger aircraft as NMAs and A321XLRs and what not are flying around introducing new competition and fragmenting markets.
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:15 am

Vladex wrote:
A lot of airlines that are under Boeing spell from a long past ordered 787. JAL had to apologize for ordering A350, so 787 is definitely more ordered and produced but the victory is temporary and pyrhic.

Randy will be glad to know that those hypnotism classes he took paid off bigly.

xwb565 wrote:
However the smaller widebody will always sell better in a dip. Hence it is no surprise the 787 has sold well.

Dip? What "dip"?

flee wrote:
In any case, it is quite pointless to compare aircraft sales as a measure of success.

Sales are irrelevant. No-one should pay attention to them. I should copy that quote into a notepad file so I can trot it out when someone mentions narrowbodies. ;)

Strato2 wrote:
What is most important is profitability. These graphs do nothing to help with this situation.

Thus sayeth one of the bigger A380 apologists on this board.

Geoff1947 wrote:
I find facts inform a discussion !

The 787 is a huge success on the basis of its delivery rate but there is so much hype and exaggeration surrounding it.

Geoff

I agree. Facts are good things. So let's simply take away all the "hype and exaggeration surrounding it" and you're left with the fact that "the 787 is a huge success".

rbavfan wrote:
In terms of bribes. We have no idea if that statement is true. It took a long time for Airbus to get caught. Boeing has been caught in the past on other programs. Not neccesarily commercial aircraft.... So who knows. After all India has been rife for years with paying out to people all along the sales trip to get business sales. So they could be just as guilty of it & we or the government has not got a good evidence yet to charge them.

Yeah, They're dirty. I know it too. I just don't have any facts or evidence to back it up. You wait though. I'm the Adam Schiff of a.net but we're not impressing Geoff1947.

StTim wrote:
economic circumstances are very different. Such analysis needs many other factors to be applied.

Olddog wrote:
The trick is in the "normalization" of theses graphs. Post the raw data with the real date of production ad I bet you will see a totally different picture :)

You guys should get together and do the analysis to make your case and you can share it with the rest of the class. I'm sure a fact based argument, rather one founded on intuition or emotion will make Geoff1947 happy too.
 
xwb565
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:38 am

rbavfan wrote:
xwb565 wrote:
The a350 has met or exceeded all performance guarantees from day one. It has in the last couple of quarters become the most reliable widebody overtaking even the 777. However the smaller widebody will always sell better in a dip. Hence it is no surprise the 787 has sold well.


Actually the A350-900 came in quite a bit heavier than guaranteed & had to have higher T-O weights to compensate for the difference.


From my understanding higher t/o weights were a result of better than expected performance from the test program. Even some of the batch two aircraft which were delivered at wv0(268t) met guarantees. Now are these guarantees the same as what is offered today?. I do not know but I doubt it.
 
musman9853
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:57 pm

zeke wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
that's pretty much entirely RR's fault though. seems kinda disingenuous to blame the frame, which other than some earlier kinks, has proven to be reliable and successful


Not sure that is entirely fair.

RR has said one of the reasons why the Trent XWB is not having the same issues as the Trent 1000 is due to unique geometry within the Trent 1000 engine. I understood that was due to the design requirements to produce around 4times higher generator loads, this impacts margins within the engine so they moved the accessory drive from the HP to IP spool.

It speaks volumes in my view that neither the 737Max or 777-X went “bleed less”.



But the genx had the same requirements and yet that was perfectly fine. Besides most of the rr issues had to do with sulfur buildups damaging the engine.
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:00 pm

PM wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Per 2018 data the 787 is 53% GE, 33% RR, and 14% undecided.


I'll give you even better data.

Not all of the first 1,000 787s have been built but we do now know which engines each and every one will have.

The answer is 629 with the GEnx and 371 with the T1000. That's 63% GE and 37% RR. (Much as it pains me to say so...)


I wonder what the distribution is for the first 500 vs the next. I'd imagine a lot more ge in the latter block
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:08 pm

musman9853 wrote:
PM wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Per 2018 data the 787 is 53% GE, 33% RR, and 14% undecided.


I'll give you even better data.

Not all of the first 1,000 787s have been built but we do now know which engines each and every one will have.

The answer is 629 with the GEnx and 371 with the T1000. That's 63% GE and 37% RR. (Much as it pains me to say so...)


I wonder what the distribution is for the first 500 vs the next. I'd imagine a lot more ge in the latter block


Good question. The answer is 302 GE and 198 RR or 60% v 40%.

So the second batch of 500 is 327 GE and 173 RR or 65% v 35%.
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:12 pm

zeke wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
that's pretty much entirely RR's fault though. seems kinda disingenuous to blame the frame, which other than some earlier kinks, has proven to be reliable and successful

Not sure that is entirely fair.

RR has said one of the reasons why the Trent XWB is not having the same issues as the Trent 1000 is due to unique geometry within the Trent 1000 engine. I understood that was due to the design requirements to produce around 4times higher generator loads, this impacts margins within the engine so they moved the accessory drive from the HP to IP spool.

Somehow GE managed to figure it out.

It speaks volumes in my view that neither the 737Max or 777-X went “bleed less”.

Wasn't all the duct work for a bleed system already in the 737 and 777?
What would it have cost in time and money to remove them and redesign for a bleedless system?
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:25 pm

PM wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
PM wrote:

I'll give you even better data.

Not all of the first 1,000 787s have been built but we do now know which engines each and every one will have.

The answer is 629 with the GEnx and 371 with the T1000. That's 63% GE and 37% RR. (Much as it pains me to say so...)


I wonder what the distribution is for the first 500 vs the next. I'd imagine a lot more ge in the latter block


Good question. The answer is 302 GE and 198 RR or 60% v 40%.

So the second batch of 500 is 327 GE and 173 RR or 65% v 35%.


interesting, thanks! i'm honestly surprised the RR held on as well as they did considering how badly the messed up. you'd think airlines would be a lot more hesitant. but i guess 10% more market share isn't anything to scoff at.
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:36 pm

musman9853 wrote:
PM wrote:
musman9853 wrote:

I wonder what the distribution is for the first 500 vs the next. I'd imagine a lot more ge in the latter block


Good question. The answer is 302 GE and 198 RR or 60% v 40%.

So the second batch of 500 is 327 GE and 173 RR or 65% v 35%.


interesting, thanks! i'm honestly surprised the RR held on as well as they did considering how badly the messed up. you'd think airlines would be a lot more hesitant. but i guess 10% more market share isn't anything to scoff at.

The Trent 1000 issues have only been major issues in terms of groundings in what the last year, two years at most, till then both the T1000 and GEnx were missing specs, GEnx had the icing issues etc. What will be interesting is seeing how Rolls does with new orders from now on.
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:46 pm

flee wrote:
The GE engine isn't problem free either - there have been a few IFS as well.

A little false equivalence there?
A few IFS on GE engines compared to RR sitting on the ground for months awaiting fixes?

These aircraft programmes will go on for a few decades and whether it is a success or not is still unknown.

I think we already know that both of them are a success.

In the long run, both will have their own customers and we shall have to wait and see what the end result will be.

Both will have their own customers and some customers will have both in their fleet.
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:59 pm

musman9853 wrote:

interesting, thanks! i'm honestly surprised the RR held on as well as they did considering how badly the messed up. you'd think airlines would be a lot more hesitant.


Well, RR won the Lufthansa Group order for 20 (surely with more to come) in March. There's life in the programme yet.
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:38 pm

I'm impressed at how (relatively) reasonable this discussion is! :bigthumbsup:

I'm rooting for the success of both of them. The 787 with its huge windows and sleek wings -- a marvel of engineering imo, just to see those tiny flap-track fairings on an aircraft that size. And the A350, one SQ ULR flight and I was sold! Here's to many future flights on both families :champagne:
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:44 pm

9Patch wrote:
It speaks volumes in my view that neither the 737Max or 777-X went “bleed less”.

Wasn't all the duct work for a bleed system already in the 737 and 777?
What would it have cost in time and money to remove them and redesign for a bleedless system?

Fair point on the MX. But the 777X received a completely new wing (and pylon), so that had to be redesigned anyway.
The difference in ducting between bleedless and bleeded engines is mainly concentrated to the wing. Sure, there are ducts in the fuselage, but that also applies to the bleedless 787 - cabin air must somehow be distrubuted througout the cabin.
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:51 pm

It is odd the A350 sales have slowed so dramatically. I agree it was designed as a 777 replacement. The 787 is more an A330 and 767 replacement. Maybe that's it?

Also it is possible the 787 is better optimized for real world payloads. For example, is a 30-35t payload more the norm or is 50-55t more the norm. I guess it depends on the airline but still, the entire situation is odd.
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 4:14 pm

PW100 wrote:
9Patch wrote:
It speaks volumes in my view that neither the 737Max or 777-X went “bleed less”.

Wasn't all the duct work for a bleed system already in the 737 and 777?
What would it have cost in time and money to remove them and redesign for a bleedless system?

Fair point on the MX. But the 777X received a completely new wing (and pylon), so that had to be redesigned anyway.
The difference in ducting between bleedless and bleeded engines is mainly concentrated to the wing. Sure, there are ducts in the fuselage, but that also applies to the bleedless 787 - cabin air must somehow be distrubuted througout the cabin.

I guess we'll know how committed Boeing is to a bleedless system the next time they do a clean sheet design.
Not using one on the MAX or 77X really tells us nothing, in spite of Zeke's innuendo.
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 4:34 pm

I think the order books of both 787 and A350 speak of the tremendous success they have. We have hundreds of orders to be delivered and nearby slots are all full. Boeing did a good job increasing the production rate and hence both the reduced production cost as well as better slot availability. Airbus need to ramp up the production. Although considering the huge backlog of both frames, I think almost all airlines are good for growth and replacement for the next few years so we won't see huge orders for a while. Majority of the older A330 replacements were secured by 787 and some by A359/A339 and the last few hundreds are pretty young so no need of replacements for now. Next replacement cycle will be around 2022-23 when the newer A330-300 and 77Ws would start coming off leases and are due for D checks. My guess is both 787-10 and A350-1000 order books would get a boost.
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:02 pm

zeke wrote:
It speaks volumes in my view that neither the 737Max or 777-X went “bleed less”.


Out of curiosity, to what extent was that choice constrained by neither aircraft being a clean-sheet design?
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:02 pm

sabby wrote:
I think the order books of both 787 and A350 speak of the tremendous success they have. We have hundreds of orders to be delivered and nearby slots are all full. Boeing did a good job increasing the production rate and hence both the reduced production cost as well as better slot availability. Airbus need to ramp up the production. Although considering the huge backlog of both frames, I think almost all airlines are good for growth and replacement for the next few years so we won't see huge orders for a while. Majority of the older A330 replacements were secured by 787 and some by A359/A339 and the last few hundreds are pretty young so no need of replacements for now. Next replacement cycle will be around 2022-23 when the newer A330-300 and 77Ws would start coming off leases and are due for D checks. My guess is both 787-10 and A350-1000 order books would get a boost.


:checkmark:

I agree with you.
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bmw123
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:42 pm

It’s hard to draw conclusions from this graph as the complete replacement cycle has not played out yet. What may be more telling would be to overlay on this graph the previous and expected replacement cycles for 777, 330, 747, and 767 frames. This data could easily be obtained and carry it out a few years, maybe 10.
Maybe data such as on this site and others could be placed in graph form for future predictive value of likely will be ordered. I would love to see a break down summarized of each airlines future needs with respect to timing of orders.
Although we don’t know what each airline may pick for its replacement needs it seems apparent the 787/330neo replaces the 330 and the 350/777x replaces the 777W. Some educated inferences could be made.

https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam ... al_web.pdf
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:02 pm

rbavfan wrote:

Actually the A350-900 came in quite a bit heavier than guaranteed & had to have higher T-O weights to compensate for the difference.


Not sure is that is entirely correct. Both the A350 and 787 had some heavier aircraft at the start, but their approaches were different.

Boeing just kept producing aircraft and would park them for lots of travel work to be done. Airbus took a different approach to stop production when required (remember the wing drilling), and introduce changes in batches.

Batch 1 aircraft were the flight test airframes, MSN 5 - 20 are batch 2 aircraft. MSN21 and beyond are batch 3. Batch 3 aircraft exceeded performance guarantees.

It took around 100 or so 787s to get the same level of maturity from memory.
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:40 pm

musman9853 wrote:
But the genx had the same requirements and yet that was perfectly fine. Besides most of the rr issues had to do with sulfur buildups damaging the engine.


The GEnx has not been “perfectly fine”, it has its share of issues and ADs.

Like I said the issue with the Trent 1000 is limited to the 787, don’t see the sane issue with the Trent 7000 or XWB.

From https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... yc-458567/

“But, speaking to journalists on 30 May, R-R chief customer officer Dominic Horwood stressed that the issue was related to the specific geometry and design of the Trent 1000.”

PM wrote:

Good question. The answer is 302 GE and 198 RR or 60% v 40%.

So the second batch of 500 is 327 GE and 173 RR or 65% v 35%.


Market share however in the 250 seat area is much closer as RR is supplying engines to the A330neo, 787, and A350.
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musman9853
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:43 pm

zeke wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
But the genx had the same requirements and yet that was perfectly fine. Besides most of the rr issues had to do with sulfur buildups damaging the engine.


The GEnx has not been “perfectly fine”, it has its share of issues and ADs.



while it's had it's teething issues (the icing issues are a good example), you don't see vast amounts of the genx powered 787s sitting on the ground for months at a time due to engine issues.
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:58 pm

musman9853 wrote:
while it's had it's teething issues (the icing issues are a good example), you don't see vast amounts of the genx powered 787s sitting on the ground for months at a time due to engine issues.


I thought the icing issues were ongoing ? Remember reading the B200 software fix was not due out until later this year.

The Trent 1000 is not having “unknown issues” that needs them to be grounded, or a fix that has not been rolled out, simply a supply and demand from a manufacturing point of view. Aircraft with the parts replaced are back flying.

corrosive sulphidation is not something unique to the Trent 1000. It is seen on lots of engines, I would expect it on the GEnx as well.
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:58 pm

zeke wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
while it's had it's teething issues (the icing issues are a good example), you don't see vast amounts of the genx powered 787s sitting on the ground for months at a time due to engine issues.


I thought the icing issues were ongoing ? Remember reading the B200 software fix was not due out until later this year.

The Trent 1000 is not having “unknown issues” that needs them to be grounded, or a fix that has not been rolled out, simply a supply and demand from a manufacturing point of view. Aircraft with the parts replaced are back flying.

corrosive sulphidation is not something unique to the Trent 1000. It is seen on lots of engines, I would expect it on the GEnx as well.

I don't think the affected airlines are taking the Trent 1000 issues as lightly as you do.

Yes it is a supply and demand issue for the extra checks and the modifications that are now needed for the definite fix. But that has caused airlines to need to ground aircraft just because of the short supply of working RR engines. That's not a grounding like the MAX grounding, but it still had a big effect on the operations of the affected airlines. GE also had their fair share of issues, but non had the same impact as the recent Trent 1000 troubles.

I don't think that the RR share holders are too happy about the £1.5 billion that the issues will cost the company until it's completely fixed in a couple of years.
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:04 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
It is odd the A350 sales have slowed so dramatically. I agree it was designed as a 777 replacement. The 787 is more an A330 and 767 replacement. Maybe that's it?

Also it is possible the 787 is better optimized for real world payloads. For example, is a 30-35t payload more the norm or is 50-55t more the norm. I guess it depends on the airline but still, the entire situation is odd.


probably. the 87 seems to be in the sweet spot.

but i think it comes down actually to price. the 350 is too expensive for what it offers and airbus has said "we're not chasing market share" which means they're going to take profit per frame whatever that is

if boeing is actually pressing out 789s for less than a 330 neo then i mean that tells you all you really need to know. it will be a shock that any other airplane gets bought including one of their own
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:28 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
[But that has caused airlines to need to ground aircraft just because of the short supply of working RR engines.


I think it is different for different airline depending on what services they paid for, it seems those who went cheap o the support have the biggest downtime. I have seen what looks like the same 787 sitting around stand 132 in BKK for over a year without engines. Where other airline have very little downtime.
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:49 pm

zeke wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
[But that has caused airlines to need to ground aircraft just because of the short supply of working RR engines.


I think it is different for different airline depending on what services they paid for, it seems those who went cheap o the support have the biggest downtime. I have seen what looks like the same 787 sitting around stand 132 in BKK for over a year without engines. Where other airline have very little downtime.

The finance industry refers to customers who don't take out commercial aircraft engine maintenance plans as free styling, and for WB's especially, the industry is increasingly risk averse, to the extent of not providing finance, either directly by saying no, or indirectly by re-pricing for risk. Of course there isn't one plan, but multiple, so shades of grey when pricing, based on the plan selected.

RR deliver parts and replacement engines based on the plan / warranty, and sometimes with a little lobbying from the air frame OEM, including dangling the carrot of future orders. NZ did this, at the same time, taking the opportunity to undertake unrelated changes / mods.

Some airlines have been borrowing non-engine-related parts from grounded aircraft, which now further delays the return to service.
 
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:27 pm

Revelation wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
it's probably because the 787 is the smaller plane. the trend has been clear towards the smallest plane that can efficiently complete the route. being bigger has its challenges

Yes, I was thinking the same thing when I wrote my comment about 787-10 potentially undermining A359.



I tend to agree. The smaller plane will always be more popular.

The A359 is vulnerable to the 787X which will, in time, with PIPs and MTOW increases, become quite a formidable aircraft.

But then again, by the end of 2020s, I fully expect the Ultrafan to be flying on the A350, and I think the 777X would also be quite vulnerable to the A350-2000 with the Ultra fan. In about a decade's time, the two frame will occupy slightly different market positions.
 
9Patch
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:17 am

zeke wrote:
The GEnx has not been “perfectly fine”, it has its share of issues and ADs.

I see you're back with the false equivalency arguments comparing the RR and GE 787 engines.
And it's going over about as well as the last time.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422937&view=unread#unread
 
musman9853
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:20 am

9Patch wrote:
zeke wrote:
The GEnx has not been “perfectly fine”, it has its share of issues and ADs.

I see you're back with the false equivalency arguments comparing the RR and GE 787 engines.
And it's going over about as well as the last time.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422937&view=unread#unread


Yeah to pretend the genx icing issues are anywhere close to the t1000 issues is completely laughable
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
9Patch
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:36 am

musman9853 wrote:
9Patch wrote:
zeke wrote:
The GEnx has not been “perfectly fine”, it has its share of issues and ADs.

I see you're back with the false equivalency arguments comparing the RR and GE 787 engines.
And it's going over about as well as the last time.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422937&view=unread#unread

Yeah to pretend the genx icing issues are anywhere close to the t1000 issues is completely laughable

No need to pretend, the RR issues are much worse:
Design glitches have plagued the Trent programme since 2016, leading to about $1.7bn in charges, while eating into Rolls-Royce’s share of turbines for 787 jets against rival enginemaker General Electric.
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/compa ... ne-blades/

Since the problems first came to light, some 15 airlines have felt some effect, most notably ANA, LATAM, Virgin Atlantic, British Airways, Norwegian, and Air New Zealand. Virgin Atlantic, for one, expects to lease four Airbus A330-200s for at least a year to compensate for a shortage of Trent engines to power its 787-9s.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... olls-royce
 
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zeke
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:44 am

9Patch wrote:
zeke wrote:
The GEnx has not been “perfectly fine”, it has its share of issues and ADs.

I see you're back with the false equivalency arguments comparing the RR and GE 787 engines.
And it's going over about as well as the last time.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422937&view=unread#unread


Please understand that the icing issues have had direct operational impact on every GEnx operator (787 and 747-8) on how they flight plan and operate their aircraft every flight. If you can tell me if the B200 software update has been incorporated I would be appreciative. Just because an aircraft is not on the ground does not mean it is not mean the issue was not costing them money.

Last I heard the FAA were asking why the 787-10 needed an certification exemption for the B200 software update. The B200 software update is to stop in flight shutdowns on the GEnx during a cruise climb, after an in flight shutdown highlighted the issue.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
h1fl1er
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:57 am

9Patch wrote:
zeke wrote:
The GEnx has not been “perfectly fine”, it has its share of issues and ADs.

I see you're back with the false equivalency arguments comparing the RR and GE 787 engines.
And it's going over about as well as the last time.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422937&view=unread#unread


so did that guy who posted the various range methodologies ever say where he got the "airbus method" from? something about 95kg per person for airbus. does boing use 100 or somethin?

also if RR engines are doing so bad in the 87, why is anyone even ordering them? they've got to be costing airlines a lot of cash
 
9Patch
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:28 am

h1fl1er wrote:
also if RR engines are doing so bad in the 87, why is anyone even ordering them? they've got to be costing airlines a lot of cash

Maybe that explains why Air NZ switched from RR to GE on their last 787 order.
 
BNORD1
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:45 am

Didn't UA have an order for the 350? Or did I mis-read sowhere along the line. If they did, what happened or is happening?
 
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PM
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:56 am

BNORD1 wrote:
Didn't UA have an order for the 350? Or did I mis-read sowhere along the line. If they did, what happened or is happening?

They ordered 25 -900s in 2010. In 2013 they changed the order to the -1000 and increased it to 35. Then in 2017 they changed back to the -900 and ordered yet another ten. So, at present, the order is for 45 x -900.
 
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PM
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:13 am

zeke wrote:



Market share however in the 250 seat area is much closer as RR is supplying engines to the A330neo, 787, and A350.


Indeed. I think a lot of people assume that RR is on the slide while GE clean up. But consider this.

In 2018 RR delivered more widebody engines than GE, PW and EA combined. They had 54.5% of deliveries. GE could only manage 42.5%.

And RR are on track to do the same this year. By the end of May, RR had delivered 50.3 of widebody engines, GE 42.2%, and PW 7.5% (on the 767-2C).

And it's RR's share of the 787 that's making this difference.
 
trex8
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:30 pm

9Patch wrote:
h1fl1er wrote:
also if RR engines are doing so bad in the 87, why is anyone even ordering them? they've got to be costing airlines a lot of cash

Maybe that explains why Air NZ switched from RR to GE on their last 787 order.

Or maybe they just got better financing (albeit maybe because its a better risk). The days of x product being so much technically better than y in decision making in teh airline industry has given the way to x provides better financing deal than y. Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, its all the same, which one has the lower finance rate today.
 
VV
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:35 pm

Is there any reason to believe A330neo has any effect on A350 orders?
 
dmstorm22
Posts: 505
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:50 pm

musman9853 wrote:
it's probably because the 787 is the smaller plane. the trend has been clear towards the smallest plane that can efficiently complete the route. being bigger has its challenges


That's a highly close-minded way to look at the way fleets are going.

If that was the case, we would have seen a run on the B788, instead, it will likely end up being the 3rd most popular / well-sold B787 model.

Same with the inability for the A358 to make it.

I think we can say VLA didn't work, but anything from the NMA (or A321XLR) to the B77W has its place easily in a modern aviation market.
 
ikramerica
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:35 pm

VV wrote:
Is there any reason to believe A330neo has any effect on A350 orders?

I'm still of the mindset that the A350 Mk1, refined rather than abandoned would have sold more than the current A350, and been delivered at the same time as the 787, cutting into Boeing sales. Eventually Airbus realized this with the A330neo, but that was maybe too late and missed some key sales as well.

While the 777 replacement market is important, the A350 Mk2 doesn't have exclusive rights to it. The 789 replaces the 77E for many airlines as it is more capable but not quite as big. Just as airlines chose the 747 for range, the 77E was also chosen for range as nothing smaller could match it economically or functionally.

The A350 goes against customers who want a more capable 77E, or have the oldest 77Ws and need to replace them, or who want to downsize from the 744 (except Airbus was 3 years too late with the -1000 to hit the sweet spot in the cycle). And now with the 777X, more A350 orders have competition. The 777X also faces similar problems, but even though it's prospects are sketchy, it dims the forecast for the A350 even more.

Timing is everything. Boeing really f-ed up the 787 and yet, because Airbus was so wishy washy during that period, Boeing still got many of the sales anyway, ones that weren't plucked away by the A330ceo which was the "best plane available" when Boeing couldn't deliver.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Sooner787
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:24 pm

Safe to say the 787 and A350 families both have a bright future ahead
 
mintxwb
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:05 am

Sooner787 wrote:
Safe to say the 787 and A350 families both have a bright future ahead


787 for sure but 350 is in hot water. orders (almost) stop coming in once the first aircraft was delivered. Also reports of performance dissatisfaction are plenty.

350 is a fine plane, too late and too pricey for what it can offer.
 
VV
Posts: 780
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:38 am

ikramerica wrote:
VV wrote:
Is there any reason to believe A330neo has any effect on A350 orders?

I'm still of the mindset that the A350 Mk1, refined rather than abandoned would have sold more than the current A350, and been delivered at the same time as the 787, cutting into Boeing sales. Eventually Airbus realized this with the A330neo, but that was maybe too late and missed some key sales as well.

While the 777 replacement market is important, the A350 Mk2 doesn't have exclusive rights to it. The 789 replaces the 77E for many airlines as it is more capable but not quite as big. Just as airlines chose the 747 for range, the 77E was also chosen for range as nothing smaller could match it economically or functionally.

The A350 goes against customers who want a more capable 77E, or have the oldest 77Ws and need to replace them, or who want to downsize from the 744 (except Airbus was 3 years too late with the -1000 to hit the sweet spot in the cycle). And now with the 777X, more A350 orders have competition. The 777X also faces similar problems, but even though it's prospects are sketchy, it dims the forecast for the A350 even more.

Timing is everything. Boeing really f-ed up the 787 and yet, because Airbus was so wishy washy during that period, Boeing still got many of the sales anyway, ones that weren't plucked away by the A330ceo which was the "best plane available" when Boeing couldn't deliver.


Wasn't 787 considered "too small" by some folks?
 
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zeke
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:19 am

mintxwb wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
Safe to say the 787 and A350 families both have a bright future ahead


787 for sure but 350 is in hot water. orders (almost) stop coming in once the first aircraft was delivered. Also reports of performance dissatisfaction are plenty.

350 is a fine plane, too late and too pricey for what it can offer.


Naturally you cannot supply any sources to these "reports of performance dissatisfaction are plenty"

Or contracts or even list prices which would support " too pricey for what it can offer".

Seems more like baseless opinion.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
ITSTours
Posts: 366
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Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:34 pm

zeke wrote:
mintxwb wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
Safe to say the 787 and A350 families both have a bright future ahead


787 for sure but 350 is in hot water. orders (almost) stop coming in once the first aircraft was delivered. Also reports of performance dissatisfaction are plenty.

350 is a fine plane, too late and too pricey for what it can offer.


Naturally you cannot supply any sources to these "reports of performance dissatisfaction are plenty"

Or contracts or even list prices which would support " too pricey for what it can offer".

Seems more like baseless opinion.


“Since taking delivery of the world’s first A350-1000 in February 2018, we have been extremely pleased with the aircraft’s performance, which has prompted us to update our original order,”
- Akbar Al Baker, Qatar Airways CEO

"Overall, it's been a very smooth introduction into service for the A350[-1000]," he told FlightGlobal at an event to mark the launch of the Hong Kong-based carrier's new Washington Dulles route on 25 September. "We’re pleased with that."
- Rupert Hogg, Cathay Pacific Airways CEO

“The A350 XWB meets all our expectations. The aircraft is extremely reliable and the feedback from our passengers is excellent"
- Dr. Detlef Kayser, Member of the Executive Board Lufthansa Group - Airlines Resources & Operational Standards

So I think the airline executives like them, and they certainly know more than me who is merely an armchair CEO.
 
ITSTours
Posts: 366
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:51 pm

Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:45 pm

VV wrote:
Is there any reason to believe A330neo has any effect on A350 orders?


I don't think so, as A350-900 sales are healthy. A350-1000 is more problematic but this is too large to be affected by A330neo.

But then it might be just because 777-300ER sales were so good and the replacement cycle is years away.

Airbus probably should neo them as soon as the Ultrafan is available to make a better competitor against 777-9X and a better alternative for 77W replacement.
 
Lufthansa
Posts: 2559
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 6:04 am

Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:27 pm

Vladex wrote:
A350 only had 1 delivery in 2014 and it took its time after that
A lot of airlines that are under Boeing spell from a long past ordered 787. JAL had to apologize for ordering A350, so 787 is definitely more ordered and produced but the victory is temporary and pyrhic.I believe A350 has a larger ground clearance so it will have much more engine potential along with being larger or right sized.


JAL had to apologise? I mean really? What grounds have you got for that one? Remember it was a Boeing 787 battery stuff up (read battery fire) and
engine icing issues that lead JAL to Airbus in the first place. I don't see JAL needing to apologise for ordering both types, plenty of
others did and give the variants there's likely to be more yet. No sane manufacturer would want it's clients to apologise for ordering its products.

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