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seabosdca
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Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

New Widebody Engine Timing?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:34 pm

There has been much discussion in various airline-specific threads about potential new engines for the A350 and 787. Ostrower reported at one point that RR was aiming to have an UltraFan on the A350 by 2025. That seems like a very aggressive timeline. No doubt once RR moves, GE will have to as well, with a new GEnx-size engine using GE9x and newer tech.

Assuming they perform as hoped, these engines will have dramatic effects on the aircraft they power. The 787-10 will become a true transpacific aircraft. The 787-9 and today's A350-1000 will become ULH monsters--or, alternately, the A350-1000 may be able to scale down to use the lighter A350-900 wing and gear. A straight stretch of the A350-1000 looks entirely possible, and would make the 777-9 a difficult sell.

Timing of all this is critical because of the replacement cycle for late-build A330-300s and all 777-300ERs. Which engine maker will be ready for those cycles? When will they happen?
 
smartplane
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Re: New Widebody Engine Timing?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:47 pm

Engine OEM investors want to see payback on existing engine models, not new, high risk adventures. However, air frame OEM's want more responsive engine OEM's.

GE needs a new owner, and RR and PW need a knight.

Solution. Needs must, and anti-competitive legislation can be suspended or changed, to allow Boeing to acquire GE and PW military, and Airbus to acquire RR and PW civil.

If engine ownership continues as is, the OEM's won't rock the boat.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: New Widebody Engine Timing?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:42 am

A new high tech engine costs $5 to $7 billion USD to put into mass production. This is why so many RR Trent's were heavily related (stopped with the T1000 and TXWB). Why the PW4000 line was so related. Or CF6 on the A330, or....

Airframes want new engines that do not weight more, cost less, and are fast.

Engine makers want a custom airframe with all the new stuff. For example, GE9x is on an airframe with new wings. Neither Pratt nor GE would bid on an A330 re-engine without a wing material change.

The 787-10 is going to see PIPs that will keep things going. A new engine would require $8 million of Boeing cash be transferred to the engine vendor just for the R&D payback.

Business cases take enough time to pass for enough new technology to be mature enough. I'm on a program where the latest greatest tech failed. It isn't ready for a system. It was great in the lab, but the efficiency feature to be highlighted, was removed.

Look at the latest Trent's, Pratt combustors and seals, LEAP combustors and bearings. Engine makers need a return on investment on the latest before replacing them.

Lightsaber
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seabosdca
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Re: New Widebody Engine Timing?

Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:20 am

Interesting comment, lightsaber. Should I interpret it as saying that you don't think brand-new A350 and 787 engines are likely in the foreseeable future? If so, that is good news for the 777X.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: New Widebody Engine Timing?

Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:16 am

lightsaber wrote:
Neither Pratt nor GE would bid on an A330 re-engine without a wing material change.



Can you elaborate on this? Why a wing change so important to them? Why less so to RR ?

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