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Slug71
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:13 am

No surprise. EK is feeling the pressure from other airlines and they simply dont need the capacity. That can be said for all the ME3 airlines. Following EY, the surprising part is probably that this didnt come from QR before EK.
 
grbauc
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:22 am

LAX772LR wrote:
behramjee wrote:
Clark said that “once we get these smaller aircraft in, like the A330neo and the 787-9, we’ll be able to grow the network significantly again,” opening routes that were too small for the much bigger Airbus A380s and Boeing 777-300ERs that make up the current fleet.

This is one of the biggest "gee, no kidding dude?!" moments in the industry, and has been for a long time...

...but the immediate question that comes to mind is: with what slots are you going to do this?

The ones that don't exist at DXB? Or is this after the move to DWC that they refuse to give a comprehensive timeline for, and where the authorities are likely in a mind financing the expansion thereof?



Very valid point and great question.

How committed to the old model are they still and how much change are they looking to do with going for smaller models only or a mix of both.
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:26 am

Erebus wrote:
It was long assumed by most here that EK will never cancel 777Xs.

How do you know what most assume here?
I can't speak for most people, but I never say never.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:34 am

As many have stated, this is EK standard operating procedure. I would not read too much into it. Sir Tim seems to like to throw his weight around, and this is an example of him doing so.

I have no doubt EK will order the 777x. Not unless they change their entire business model. It may not be 150 frames, but the 777X was literally taylor made for them.

I think they eventually purchase the 789 and 787-10 and maybe swap out some of the 777X birds. They want to feel like they are holding all the cards. The bottom line they will need the 777X and both they and Boeing know it.
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grbauc
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:53 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
As many have stated, this is EK standard operating procedure. I would not read too much into it. Sir Tim seems to like to throw his weight around, and this is an example of him doing so.

I have no doubt EK will order the 777x. Not unless they change their entire business model. It may not be 150 frames, but the 777X was literally taylor made for them.

I think they eventually purchase the 789 and 787-10 and maybe swap out some of the 777X birds. They want to feel like they are holding all the cards. The bottom line they will need the 777X and both they and Boeing know it.


I agree with you... And if poster's will read the article its hard not to see it the same id imagine


The article says 77X could be delayed some and the 787-10 swapped over to 789 in a conversation with TC.
Tim Clarks quote "Clark said the 787-10 letter of intent not only was never finalized but has now lapsed and “has no validity.”

Still, this lapsed 787 deal is now is at the center of renegotiations that involve both the 787 and the 777X contract.

Calling the negotiations a “work in progress,” Clark said the aggregate total order for airplanes will likely end up “roughly the same” at 150 plus 40, “but subject to longer timelines for service entry.”


Then it (the article) goes on to say from a aviation industry executive "said a more drastic outcome is possible, with a portion of the firm 777X order either canceled or pushed out so far into the future it’s effectively the same thing"
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:05 am

grbauc wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
As many have stated, this is EK standard operating procedure. I would not read too much into it. Sir Tim seems to like to throw his weight around, and this is an example of him doing so.

I have no doubt EK will order the 777x. Not unless they change their entire business model. It may not be 150 frames, but the 777X was literally taylor made for them.

I think they eventually purchase the 789 and 787-10 and maybe swap out some of the 777X birds. They want to feel like they are holding all the cards. The bottom line they will need the 777X and both they and Boeing know it.



The article says 77X could be delayed some and the 787-10 swapped over to 789 in a conversation with TC.
Tim Clarks quote "Clark said the 787-10 letter of intent not only was never finalized but has now lapsed and “has no validity.”

Still, this lapsed 787 deal is now is at the center of renegotiations that involve both the 787 and the 777X contract.

Calling the negotiations a “work in progress,” Clark said the aggregate total order for airplanes will likely end up “roughly the same” at 150 plus 40, “but subject to longer timelines for service entry.”


Then it (the article) goes on to say from a aviation industry executive "said a more drastic outcome is possible, with a portion of the firm 777X order either canceled or pushed out so far into the future it’s effectively the same thing"



Yes, I read the article as well. Much like U-turn Al at QR, Sir Tim says many things that turn out to not be true, or where he seemingly changes his mind at the last minute. Nothing he says is gospel until the planes are delivered.

Imho this is a last minute negotiating ploy attempting to squeeze some wanted or needed concessions from Boeing. This is how he plays the game. EK will need the 777X when all of those A 380 birds finally come off lease. But could a mix of 787's help them as well on regional routes or long thin routes.....absolutely.
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:13 am

When EK ordered the A330neo/A359, the conventional wisdom seemed to be that they would cancel the 7810 order and instead add 20 +/- 777X’s. Now it sounds like it’d be keeping the 787 order, albeit as -9’s, then reduce the 777X order by 30 +/- frames. The reduction, though, could be done by pushing them out to eternity vs canceling them formally now. All in all it sounds like a wash. Not ideal but not terrible.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
grbauc
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:26 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
When EK ordered the A330neo/A359, the conventional wisdom seemed to be that they would cancel the 7810 order and instead add 20 +/- 777X’s. Now it sounds like it’d be keeping the 787 order, albeit as -9’s, then reduce the 777X order by 30 +/- frames. The reduction, though, could be done by pushing them out to eternity vs canceling them formally now. All in all it sounds like a wash. Not ideal but not terrible.



No where does he say anything about reducing the 777X

"Calling the negotiations a “work in progress,” Clark said the aggregate total order for airplanes will likely end up “roughly the same” at 150 plus 40, “but subject to longer timelines for service entry.”


Extending them yes but no reducing of the 777X....


Elroyjetson nails it..

"Yes, I read the article as well. Much like U-turn Al at QR, Sir Tim says many things that turn out to not be true, or where he seemingly changes his mind at the last minute. Nothing he says is gospel until the planes are delivered.

Imho this is a last minute negotiating ploy attempting to squeeze some wanted or needed concessions from Boeing. This is how he plays the game. EK will need the 777X when all of those A 380 birds finally come off lease. But could a mix of 787's help them as well on regional routes or long thin routes.....absolutely."
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:38 am

I was expecting similar news about EY before EK
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:42 am

grbauc wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
When EK ordered the A330neo/A359, the conventional wisdom seemed to be that they would cancel the 7810 order and instead add 20 +/- 777X’s. Now it sounds like it’d be keeping the 787 order, albeit as -9’s, then reduce the 777X order by 30 +/- frames. The reduction, though, could be done by pushing them out to eternity vs canceling them formally now. All in all it sounds like a wash. Not ideal but not terrible.



No where does he say anything about reducing the 777X

"Calling the negotiations a “work in progress,” Clark said the aggregate total order for airplanes will likely end up “roughly the same” at 150 plus 40, “but subject to longer timelines for service entry.”


Extending them yes but no reducing of the 777X....


Elroyjetson nails it..

"Yes, I read the article as well. Much like U-turn Al at QR, Sir Tim says many things that turn out to not be true, or where he seemingly changes his mind at the last minute. Nothing he says is gospel until the planes are delivered.

Imho this is a last minute negotiating ploy attempting to squeeze some wanted or needed concessions from Boeing. This is how he plays the game. EK will need the 777X when all of those A 380 birds finally come off lease. But could a mix of 787's help them as well on regional routes or long thin routes.....absolutely."


Frankly, the information is a bit all over the place. I’m not sure we have a disagreement.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Avgeek21
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:46 am

Maybe add some 787-8’s in there for flydubai and reduce their MAX order whilst he is at it? Remember flydubai and EK are owned by the same company with ultimatly the same boss. The money comes from the same wallet and would benefit both.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:59 am

Avgeek21 wrote:
Maybe add some 787-8’s in there for flydubai and reduce their MAX order whilst he is at it? Remember flydubai and EK are owned by the same company with ultimatly the same boss. The money comes from the same wallet and would benefit both.


While not a bad suggestion, what is the advantage of sending them to FlyDubai and not just keep them at Emirates?
 
Checklist787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:07 am

9Patch wrote:
Erebus wrote:
It was long assumed by most here that EK will never cancel 777Xs. Interesting turn of events...

Clark doesn't say he's cancelling the order:
Clark said he’s discussing with Boeing “a combination of the 150 777Xs and the 40 787s, essentially looking to keep the numbers in place, but substituting and spacing them out over a longer timeline.

EK may cancel a portion of the order:
An aviation industry executive said a more drastic outcome is possible, with a portion of the firm 777X order either canceled or pushed out so far into the future it’s effectively the same thing.

The aviation industry executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect his business relationship with Boeing, described a worse outcome for Boeing, whereby it gets to firm up the order for 40 Dreamliners only by cutting the 777X order by an equivalent dollar amount. That would mean 30 to 35 cancellations out of the original 150 airplanes.


9Patch wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
this could deal a devastating blow to the 777x.

You fervently wish so.


Agreed

The problem is that many people interpret what they want to hear. The other chronic symptom here is that many associate the failure of the A380 to the 777X.

It's either black or white, gray does not exist for them

EK will never cancel his order of 777-X.

I repeat,

EK will never cancel his order of 777-X.
Last edited by Checklist787 on Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:13 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:09 am

I don't get it.
With the A339 in the house, adding a fleet of B787's only adds complexity, while the B77X is in a category of its own.

Also, why would Boeing concede? The B787 production is already fully booked for years and airlines can't wait to get more of them.
The B777X however, while now established orders-wise, has a smaller niche.

Sounds like a lose-lose deal.

EK can ask Boeing to defer B777X's but cancelling any doesn't make much sense.
Their B77W's will eventually need to be replaced and so will their A380's.

Low oil is impacting these airlines, they are being drained out by decreasing subsidies, killing their bottom line.
The top line is being pushed down by competition from China. Every extra widebody delivered in China is one less widebody the ME3 can operate with reasonable subsidies.
So they now have to start running airlines as airlines and that means tightening the belts.

It still doesn't make sense to order B787's over B777X's.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:40 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I don't get it.
With the A339 in the house, adding a fleet of B787's only adds complexity, while the B77X is in a category of its own.


My guess is they realised that had ordered too much capacity and had to get out of those massive A380 and 777 orders somehow (at least in partial). IMHO, they may not have admitted it, but the A330neo and A350 orders are likely a conversion deal. The 787 will be the same.


Waterbomber2 wrote:
Also, why would Boeing concede? The B787 production is already fully booked for years and airlines can't wait to get more of them.
The B777X however, while now established orders-wise, has a smaller niche.


Because Emirates can still cancel. It may be costly for Emirates, but still cheaper than taking 150 777Xs they can't fill profitably. Boeing would much rather convert/sell a bunch of 787s than lose a significant amount of orders completely through a cancellation.

BTW, you could ask why Airbus was willing to do the same with the A380 cancellation. There is really no difference ;)
Last edited by VSMUT on Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:40 am

To me, this is just a sign that EK's strategy to become the carrier that carries everybody everywhere on very large airplanes just hasn't worked out really well. (Not that many will be surprised).
Time for EK to return to reality and adapt to the new world of long haul flying: smaller, more efficient frames and adapt to demand on every market rather than trying to create demand by dumping capacity...

This is not really an indictment of the 777X, but rather an evidence of an evolving industry.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:07 am

lightsaber wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Everyone here has been saying for a couple of years that Emirates had too many aircraft, and too many orders, so how is this surprising ?

What's good for the A380, is good for the 777X.

The ME3 are struggling. IST and ADD realized they had a good idea and have been working to carve out their own niches.

Now for India to build a mega airport at a high O&D city without the long haul crippling fuel taxes and a great transfer experience (includes airport design).

I do not understand some of the extreamism. There will be an EK in a decade. They simply need to downsize for their market size to get the O&D up at 50%+. QR and EY have more to worry about as Dubai's O&D is substantially larger... Now to find a link...

Lightsaber


You repeatedly peddle this.

IST isn't even in the top ten of busiest airports and ADD isn't in the top fifty.

As for India, ha, who actually cares. The whole 'bric' concept is in tatters.

EK is far from struggling. It is changing, evolving. People can't handle that. People can't accept its moving away from its big people-moving ethos it's had for two decades, buiiilt with the a380.

All it takes is one terror related event in Turkey and all bets are off.

Emirates will still be far better and hubbed in a safer city than tk in istandbul.
 
YellowJ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:08 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I don't get it.
With the A339 in the house, adding a fleet of B787's only adds complexity, while the B77X is in a category of its own.


Yes, but Tim seems dead set on acquiring 787's for some reason.

IMHO, they may not have admitted it, but the A330neo and A350 orders are likely a conversion deal. The 787 will be the same.

Everyone knows the A330Neo & A350 orders were a conversion deal to maintain A380 deposits. The 787 is different because I doubt EK has deposits on all 150 777X they have on order. They could have simply canceled without penalty over 50% of them IMO. Yet from Tim's quote, he seems to want to defer some 777x, while still maintaining the total order number and also add additional 787's to the mix.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:24 am

YellowJ wrote:
Yes, but Tim seems dead set on acquiring 787's for some reason.


Because it's the only other worthwhile product on which to use 777X deposits and downpayments. What else would he spend them on, 767s?


YellowJ wrote:
Everyone knows the A330Neo & A350 orders were a conversion deal to maintain A380 deposits. The 787 is different because I doubt EK has deposits on all 150 777X they have on order. They could have simply canceled without penalty over 50% of them IMO. Yet from Tim's quote, he seems to want to defer some 777x, while still maintaining the total order number and also add additional 787's to the mix.


Disagree. They had massive influence on the development and likely received a large discount as launch customer. The first ones are already being built. You can be dead certain there are deposits on all 150 777Xs. It is just unheard of for an airline to order anything without paying a deposit of some kind, much less wield such influence over the design and get away unscathed.

A cancellation also doesn't change the fact that Emirates still needs new planes, and putting the 777X deposit towards them would be cheaper.
 
Ugly51
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:43 am

I was under the impression that Lufthansa is the launch customer for the Boeing 777X.
I also believe that being so close to the start of production, deposits are already in place for the 777X.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:13 am

VSMUT wrote:
YellowJ wrote:
Yes, but Tim seems dead set on acquiring 787's for some reason.


Because it's the only other worthwhile product on which to use 777X deposits and downpayments. What else would he spend them on, 767s?


YellowJ wrote:
Everyone knows the A330Neo & A350 orders were a conversion deal to maintain A380 deposits. The 787 is different because I doubt EK has deposits on all 150 777X they have on order. They could have simply canceled without penalty over 50% of them IMO. Yet from Tim's quote, he seems to want to defer some 777x, while still maintaining the total order number and also add additional 787's to the mix.


Disagree. They had massive influence on the development and likely received a large discount as launch customer. The first ones are already being built. You can be dead certain there are deposits on all 150 777Xs. It is just unheard of for an airline to order anything without paying a deposit of some kind, much less wield such influence over the design and get away unscathed.

A cancellation also doesn't change the fact that Emirates still needs new planes, and putting the 777X deposit towards them would be cheaper.


Finally a relevant comment!

The habits of A. Netters are to emit comments without any thought. The proof.. :roll:
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:23 am

According to the Seattle Times article, Emirates has clearly stated that the 40 pieces 787-10 LoI has run out.
It is clearly stated that Emirates is renegotiating the 777X order, so I expect something will change.
Boeing seems to be more interested to sell 787, than keeping the whole 777X order. Perhaps the launch price for the 777X to Emirates is dangerously low.
I think part of the negotiation is because Boeing sees the possibility of a 787 order from Emirates disappearing.

IMO, if Boeing is not prepared to accept canceling or converting part of the 777X order, Emirates is prepared to stretch out taking delivery of said order.
Boeing is also in a difficult position regarding contracted first deliveries in June 2020. That date is likely to slip.

IMO the outcome will be, that we will see the 115 777-9 being left untouched and the 35 777-8 will be replaced by 40 787-9.
The other outcome will be, that Boeing will cancel the 777-8, cutting some cost out of developing the 777X.
Boeing will also keep offering and selling the 777F instead of developing a hypothetical 777-8F.
Last edited by mjoelnir on Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:26 am

mjoelnir wrote:

IMO the outcome will be, that we will see the 115 777-9 being left untouched and the 35 777-8 will be replaced by 40 787-9.
The other outcome will be, that Boeing will cancel the 777-8, cutting some cost out of developing the 777X. Boeing will keep offering and selling the 777F instead of developing a hypothetical 777-8F.


Please re-read the article. Mr Clark emailed the paper and states that the deal(s) will still amount to 150+40 airplanes. 190 in total.

No reductions.

It's going to be deferals which in turn have an impact on Boeing ability to hike 777x prodn rates.

Please re-read the article towards the end.
 
mjoelnir
Topic Author
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:36 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

IMO the outcome will be, that we will see the 115 777-9 being left untouched and the 35 777-8 will be replaced by 40 787-9.
The other outcome will be, that Boeing will cancel the 777-8, cutting some cost out of developing the 777X. Boeing will keep offering and selling the 777F instead of developing a hypothetical 777-8F.


Please re-read the article. Mr Clark emailed the paper and states that the deal(s) will still amount to 150+40 airplanes. 190 in total.

No reductions.

It's going to be deferals which in turn have an impact on Boeing ability to hike 777x prodn rates.

Please re-read the article towards the end.


Let us look at the actual quote:
In contrast, Clark clarified later via email that he’d like to end up with an order for “roughly” 190 airplanes, though with the deliveries deferred. If orders are pushed out far enough, they effectively can be substituted later for some new airplane.

It actually only says that sometime in the future Emirates will have bought 190 more wide bodies from Boeing. For an airline using frames 12 to 15 years not a strange prediction.
I do not know how interested Boeing is to have hypothetical orders on the book, that hypothetically will be delivered after twenty years.
 
emiratesdriver
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:44 am

Little Timmy was responsible for a purge about 9-10 months ago of various strategy and Ops staff who dared to express the need to reduce the reliance on the 777X in favour of some smaller more flexible airframes where needed. Now with everyone’s collective memory erased, magically it’s time for a renegotiation and to follow what was being advocated before the calamitous decision to take more than the realistically needed 40-50 A380 airframes.
Perhaps now, at last EK will apply some common sense rather than individual hubris to the overal direction moving forward.
 
RawSushi
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:15 am

150 aircrafts is an insanely large order. That alone is more capacity than the entire fleets of many airlines, including some of the biggest brand names in civil aviation. It's entirely plausible that they over-ordered and merely need to make an adjustment. I don't think this reflects badly on the 777X aircraft at all!
 
Avgeek21
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:50 am

VSMUT wrote:
Avgeek21 wrote:
Maybe add some 787-8’s in there for flydubai and reduce their MAX order whilst he is at it? Remember flydubai and EK are owned by the same company with ultimatly the same boss. The money comes from the same wallet and would benefit both.


While not a bad suggestion, what is the advantage of sending them to FlyDubai and not just keep them at Emirates?


They can operate them at a cheaper cost base through their 'partnership' or whatever you like to call it. Emirates 'operated by flydubai' on the side and of you go. The flydubai MAX product is very good and would be a nice fit on a small 787 to test waters and develop new routes for EK to later take over. Like what is already going on but the gap between a MAX and 77W is just too large and some routes are too far away to be a realistic contender. Think options in Thailand or secondary cities in Europe. flydubai with their 737 MAX 9 increased the J class seat offering iso economy. A surprise move that I'm guessing was instigated by EK requesting them to do so. flydubai is not a heavy premium airline, EK is. EK needs to carry their premium traffic on codeshare routes where they themself not operate. And if EK want to compete with QR on certain routes you need the right aircraft that is not too big, has the performance and can do it efficiently. (Aka like QR's 788) Besides that I'm sure flydubai could fill a 788 on some of their routes.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:59 am

mjoelnir wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

IMO the outcome will be, that we will see the 115 777-9 being left untouched and the 35 777-8 will be replaced by 40 787-9.
The other outcome will be, that Boeing will cancel the 777-8, cutting some cost out of developing the 777X. Boeing will keep offering and selling the 777F instead of developing a hypothetical 777-8F.


Please re-read the article. Mr Clark emailed the paper and states that the deal(s) will still amount to 150+40 airplanes. 190 in total.

No reductions.

It's going to be deferals which in turn have an impact on Boeing ability to hike 777x prodn rates.

Please re-read the article towards the end.


Let us look at the actual quote:
In contrast, Clark clarified later via email that he’d like to end up with an order for “roughly” 190 airplanes, though with the deliveries deferred. If orders are pushed out far enough, they effectively can be substituted later for some new airplane.

It actually only says that sometime in the future Emirates will have bought 190 more wide bodies from Boeing. For an airline using frames 12 to 15 years not a strange prediction.
I do not know how interested Boeing is to have hypothetical orders on the book, that hypothetically will be delivered after twenty years.


Boeing has, 150 777x orders from emirates. The other x40 are aspirational. This whole article speaks more to deferals than cancelationss.

Quite where you get hypothetical orders from is beyond me.
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:01 am

emiratesdriver wrote:
Little Timmy was responsible for a purge about 9-10 months ago of various strategy and Ops staff who dared to express the need to reduce the reliance on the 777X in favour of some smaller more flexible airframes where needed. Now with everyone’s collective memory erased, magically it’s time for a renegotiation and to follow what was being advocated before the calamitous decision to take more than the realistically needed 40-50 A380 airframes.

And simultaneously, the previously unsaid demarcation between FZ and EK was affirmed. FZ = NB, EK = WB. Presumably the EK 330NEO orders are intended to discourage FZ purchasing A321 (or bigger when launched).
 
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par13del
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:12 am

So the possible delay due to engine problems and this is just a coincidence?
Ok, they may not be the launch airline but they will be getting the bulk of the early deliveries.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:23 am

speedbird52 wrote:
It boggles my mind that more people are flying yet airlines are on a trend to offer less seats per route. I genuinely do not understand the economics of it. You can only add so much frequency. And while small efficient planes open up new routes, well established routes will continue to grow. There must be some logic to it...

Because you can bypass hubs taking significant traffic from the established routes.

Going from San Francisco to Melbourne 10 years ago you had to go through both Los Angeles and Sydney. 3 flights have now been replaced with a single direct flight saving over 5 hours.

https://www.qantas.com/travelinsider/en ... liner.html

This is probably the best example of how the 787 has transformed the market. Airport fees are reduced due to less stops giving massive cost savings and the airline can charge more increasing profit.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:32 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

Please re-read the article. Mr Clark emailed the paper and states that the deal(s) will still amount to 150+40 airplanes. 190 in total.

No reductions.

It's going to be deferals which in turn have an impact on Boeing ability to hike 777x prodn rates.

Please re-read the article towards the end.


Let us look at the actual quote:
In contrast, Clark clarified later via email that he’d like to end up with an order for “roughly” 190 airplanes, though with the deliveries deferred. If orders are pushed out far enough, they effectively can be substituted later for some new airplane.

It actually only says that sometime in the future Emirates will have bought 190 more wide bodies from Boeing. For an airline using frames 12 to 15 years not a strange prediction.
I do not know how interested Boeing is to have hypothetical orders on the book, that hypothetically will be delivered after twenty years.


Boeing has, 150 777x orders from emirates. The other x40 are aspirational. This whole article speaks more to deferals than cancelationss.

Quite where you get hypothetical orders from is beyond me.


You were insisting on 150 + 40
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:34 am

mjoelnir wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

Let us look at the actual quote:
In contrast, Clark clarified later via email that he’d like to end up with an order for “roughly” 190 airplanes, though with the deliveries deferred. If orders are pushed out far enough, they effectively can be substituted later for some new airplane.

It actually only says that sometime in the future Emirates will have bought 190 more wide bodies from Boeing. For an airline using frames 12 to 15 years not a strange prediction.
I do not know how interested Boeing is to have hypothetical orders on the book, that hypothetically will be delivered after twenty years.


Boeing has, 150 777x orders from emirates. The other x40 are aspirational. This whole article speaks more to deferals than cancelationss.

Quite where you get hypothetical orders from is beyond me.


You were insisting on 150 + 40


I insisted nothing.

I merely quoted the figures Mr Clark supplied to the newspaper. It's there for all to see.
 
SEU
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:55 am

Honestly, Boeing made the 787 "too good"
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:06 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

Boeing has, 150 777x orders from emirates. The other x40 are aspirational. This whole article speaks more to deferals than cancelationss.

Quite where you get hypothetical orders from is beyond me.


You were insisting on 150 + 40


I insisted nothing.

I merely quoted the figures Mr Clark supplied to the newspaper. It's there for all to see.


And I supplied the whole sentence of the quote, so what is your point?
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:09 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

You were insisting on 150 + 40


I insisted nothing.

I merely quoted the figures Mr Clark supplied to the newspaper. It's there for all to see.


And I supplied the whole sentence of the quote, so what is your point?


My point is that you infered that EK would cancel the 777-8s. I proved from the article that Mr Clark said nothing of the sort and in fact the 150x 777x order is more likely to be delayed not cancelled.

That is the point.

:)
 
RandWkop
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:19 pm

Is it possible that these negotiations were partly triggered by Boeing not seeing a business case for the 778? EK has almost 70% of the 778 order book. If Boeing approached EK on this subject, it gives Tim Clarke a massive opportunity to renegotiate the entire 777X deal. It is also interesting to see that Boeing needs more 787 orders to justify a rate increase to 14. That gives prospective customers more pricing leverage. Also the quote that EK will complete widebody orders from both OEMs by November. If the 330NEO and 350 orders are firm, what will EK take in this new order?
Maybe Boeing offered to replace 35 778s with 35 779s and EK took the opportunity to get good pricing on 789s?
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:30 pm

The health of the 777X program does not depend on EK, it depends on GE. If Lightsaber’s observations about the GE9X pan out, and it beats expectations as much as the GE90-115 did, then the 777X will do very well. Not as well as the 77W, because that one had essentially no competition on long haul routes, while the 777X will have both the A350 and the 787 offering excellent economics and range below it, something that the 77W did not have during its heyday. But if the rumors about the GE9X are true then the 777X will offer better economics than anything else available, as well as enough range to fly almost any routes. If, however, it disappoints, then the 777X will likely go the way of the 748. They may have to make the freighter to salvage it.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:56 pm

I guess that EK has a hub model and the 777-8X is now about long range point to point. The model clashes with the role of the 777-8. Perhaps EK is rethinking how it will fit in and what could better suit EK.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:14 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

I insisted nothing.

I merely quoted the figures Mr Clark supplied to the newspaper. It's there for all to see.


And I supplied the whole sentence of the quote, so what is your point?


My point is that you infered that EK would cancel the 777-8s. I proved from the article that Mr Clark said nothing of the sort and in fact the 150x 777x order is more likely to be delayed not cancelled.

That is the point.

:)


I very clearly define what is my opinion, starting with IMO, and mark what Tim Clark or the article said as a quote.

It was clearly indicated that part of the 777X order would be canceled, converted to the 787-9, or pushed out indefinitely in time in the quote.

I stated my opinion to what part of the order would be canceled or converted.

Emirates has ordered 35 of the 53 777-8 on order. The 8 frame 777-8 order from Etihad is in danger. That would leave the 10 frame order for Qatar.
Emirates is ordering the A350 and talking about the 787-10. Both frames able to do long routes, making the 777-8 unnecessary. Again stating my opinion.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:19 pm

Avgeek21 wrote:
Maybe add some 787-8’s in there for flydubai and reduce their MAX order whilst he is at it? Remember flydubai and EK are owned by the same company with ultimatly the same boss. The money comes from the same wallet and would benefit both.


Someone had mentioned potential XLR for flydubai. Perhaps Boeing works with Emirates/flydubai to be a launch customer for the 797, with the announcement to be made at the DAS?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:25 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
I do not know how interested Boeing is to have hypothetical orders on the book, that hypothetically will be delivered after twenty years.

Boeing would rather have hypothetical orders than hypothetical cancellations.
 
airbazar
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:54 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
It boggles my mind that more people are flying yet airlines are on a trend to offer less seats per route. I genuinely do not understand the economics of it. You can only add so much frequency. And while small efficient planes open up new routes, well established routes will continue to grow. There must be some logic to it...

There is far more competition today than there was in the past. EK is facing a tremendous amount of pressure not just from new carriers but old carriers that are rising, as well as from new alliances. Heck, even at their own home base, Flydubay has grown to be a relevant competitor.
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:04 pm

justloveplanes wrote:
STC said 3 things in the article of importance.

A) Overall numbers the same, 150 and 40
B) Might swap 78K for 789
C) This realignment driven by the change to the A380 program.

I think the most likely outcome is just what he says. 78K order was compromised because he has A350's coming, so he's moving pieces and timelines around. But he * explicitly * says he isn't cancelling anything.


Correct......

.......but don't forget that even STC has a boss; and a boss who evidently pretty p****d at Boeing over the MAX issues.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:59 pm

Airlines live in a fast changing world and are expected to order planes up to ten years in advance, and those planes when delivered really need to be used by the first and second (and?) owners for at least twenty years. This is kind of insane. Yet somehow it is working better than any central planner could imagine.

I did not see the final years of the 380 so much as an angry debacle. Rolls, Airbus, and EK spent those years trying to make a business case work, and it had to work for upwards of 30 years. They finally threw in the towel and made mutual accommodations for one another.

Suddenly in the last 5 years what were small and medium sized planes became medium, large, and almost very large planes with a lot of capability. "Sir, the facts have changed." And everyone is having to scramble.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
FlyHPN
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:00 pm

RandWkop wrote:
Is it possible that these negotiations were partly triggered by Boeing not seeing a business case for the 778?


Hypothetically speaking, that would also have to mean that Boeing doesn’t see Qantas going their way for Sunrise. I’m reluctant to buy this theory, although it certainly did make me think.


RandWkop wrote:
Also the quote that EK will complete widebody orders from both OEMs by November. If the 330NEO and 350 orders are firm, what will EK take in this new order?


Although the 380 cancelations are reflected in Airbus’ order book, the 330 and 350’s orders haven’t shown up yet. He is probably referring to those.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:47 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

And I supplied the whole sentence of the quote, so what is your point?


My point is that you infered that EK would cancel the 777-8s. I proved from the article that Mr Clark said nothing of the sort and in fact the 150x 777x order is more likely to be delayed not cancelled.

That is the point.

:)


I very clearly define what is my opinion, starting with IMO, and mark what Tim Clark or the article said as a quote.

It was clearly indicated that part of the 777X order would be canceled, converted to the 787-9, or pushed out indefinitely in time in the quote.

I stated my opinion to what part of the order would be canceled or converted.

Emirates has ordered 35 of the 53 777-8 on order. The 8 frame 777-8 order from Etihad is in danger. That would leave the 10 frame order for Qatar.
Emirates is ordering the A350 and talking about the 787-10. Both frames able to do long routes, making the 777-8 unnecessary. Again stating my opinion.


With all dues respect to your opinion, it is totally in the contrast to Mr Clark and his statements in the Seattle Times.

Period.

And as for 7778, it will be made regardless, much like the 747-i8 was because of the freighter. 7778 will be platform for 7778 freighter. The development costs are spread with the 7779.

Thanks
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:49 pm

IMO, the most-likely part of the EK 777X order to be cut is the 35 777-8s. They can shed those and convert the 40 787-10 to 787-9 for similar CAPEX. That frees Boeing to stop active development on the 777-8 as Etihad has already decided against theirs and Qatar will be happy to be allowed to drop their commitments to the type as the only remaining customer. This will save Boeing CAPEX as well as free engineering resources for other projects.

EK can just use 777-9s with blocked seats on the routes they planned to use the 777-8 on just as today they used 777-300ERs with blocked seats on routes that were originally launched with 777-200LRs.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 4:00 pm

Stitch wrote:
IMO, the most-likely part of the EK 777X order to be cut is the 35 777-8s. They can shed those and convert the 40 787-10 to 787-9 for similar CAPEX. That frees Boeing to stop active development on the 777-8 as Etihad has already decided against theirs and Qatar will be happy to be allowed to drop their commitments to the type as the only remaining customer. This will save Boeing CAPEX as well as free engineering resources for other projects.

EK can just use 777-9s with blocked seats on the routes they planned to use the 777-8 on just as today they used 777-300ERs with blocked seats on routes that were originally launched with 777-200LRs.


How can they convert an order that doesn't exist anymore?
 
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Erebus
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 4:05 pm

Stitch wrote:
IMO, the most-likely part of the EK 777X order to be cut is the 35 777-8s. They can shed those and convert the 40 787-10 to 787-9 for similar CAPEX. That frees Boeing to stop active development on the 777-8 as Etihad has already decided against theirs and Qatar will be happy to be allowed to drop their commitments to the type as the only remaining customer. This will save Boeing CAPEX as well as free engineering resources for other projects.


I'd agree. Better to put those resources towards the NMA which, at this point, needs everything to bring it out sooner.
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