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AI126
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 4:34 pm

NeBaNi wrote:
Erebus wrote:
It was long assumed by most here that EK will never cancel 777Xs. Interesting turn of events...

Emirates has a history of signing MoUs for aircraft and not firming them, as well as canceling firm orders, so I don't think any Emirates order, based on its history and going into its future, can be deemed "safe" until the aircraft are actually delivered. A couple of orders from the past:
    :arrow: Nov 2003: EK ordered 2x A340-500s, 18x A340-600s, and 21 A380-800s. The A340-600s were canceled in Oct 2006.
    :arrow: Nov 2007: EK ordered 50x A350-900s and 20x A350-1000s. These were canceled sometime before Jun 2014, when Airbus confirmed it.
    :arrow: Jul 2008: EK ordered 30x Airbus A350-1000s and 30x A330-300s. The airline let the MoU expire and confirmed it in Jun 2010.
    :arrow: Of course, we know about the recent cancellation of the 39 A380s.
So, the long-held assumption that EK will never cancel its 777x order does not seem grounded in reality, given the airline's past actions.


FWIW, these are all Airbus widebody orders. Has EK done the same or similar with Boeing widebody orders in the past? Correct me if I'm having a memory lapse, but I don't recall them ever reneging in a major Boeing order.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 4:45 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
How can they convert an order that doesn't exist anymore?


There never was an order. It was an MoU which per numerous Emirates statements remains active with Boeing and which includes conversion rights between the 787-9 and 787-10.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:02 pm

Stitch wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
How can they convert an order that doesn't exist anymore?


There never was an order. It was an MoU which per numerous Emirates statements remains active with Boeing and which includes conversion rights between the 787-9 and 787-10.


The Seattle Times article quotes Clark saying says the -10 LOI has now lapsed
 
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zeke
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:03 pm

Was the recent Seattle Times article quoting Boeing CFO, is reporting possible delay for the 778:

In addition, demand for the 777X, and, in particular for the smaller 777-8X version, has been soft and recent sales have been sparse.

Boeing will build the 777-9X first and was expected to deliver the -8X model perhaps a year later. Smith said Boeing is “looking at the timing and demand for the -8 to see if that still makes sense and do we want to push that out?”"
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:04 pm

Stitch wrote:
IMO, the most-likely part of the EK 777X order to be cut is the 35 777-8s. They can shed those and convert the 40 787-10 to 787-9 for similar CAPEX. That frees Boeing to stop active development on the 777-8 as Etihad has already decided against theirs and Qatar will be happy to be allowed to drop their commitments to the type as the only remaining customer. This will save Boeing CAPEX as well as free engineering resources for other projects.

EK can just use 777-9s with blocked seats on the routes they planned to use the 777-8 on just as today they used 777-300ERs with blocked seats on routes that were originally launched with 777-200LRs.


All of this is a mute point.

Why?

Sir time says that deferance not cancellations of orders is on the table.

Are people even reading the Times article???

I'm astounded.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:05 pm

Stitch wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
How can they convert an order that doesn't exist anymore?


There never was an order. It was an MoU which per numerous Emirates statements remains active with Boeing and which includes conversion rights between the 787-9 and 787-10.


You’re right... so how can they convert a lapsed LoI?
 
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Polot
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:08 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
How can they convert an order that doesn't exist anymore?


There never was an order. It was an MoU which per numerous Emirates statements remains active with Boeing and which includes conversion rights between the 787-9 and 787-10.


You’re right... so how can they convert a lapsed LoI?

Do we actually know that the LOI is lapsed? We just assume it has.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:11 pm

Polot wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:

There never was an order. It was an MoU which per numerous Emirates statements remains active with Boeing and which includes conversion rights between the 787-9 and 787-10.


You’re right... so how can they convert a lapsed LoI?

Do we actually know that the LOI is lapsed? We just assume it has.



The Seattle Times article quotes Clark saying says the -10 LOI has now lapsed
 
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Polot
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:11 pm

fcogafa wrote:
Polot wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

You’re right... so how can they convert a lapsed LoI?

Do we actually know that the LOI is lapsed? We just assume it has.



The Seattle Times article quotes Clark saying says the -10 LOI has now lapsed

Yeah I missed that the first time around.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:16 pm

fcogafa wrote:
The Seattle Times article quotes Clark saying says the -10 LOI has now lapsed

MrHMSH wrote:
You’re right... so how can they convert a lapsed LoI?


Well not like Clark can't negotiate a new LoI / MoU / Firm Order - which the Seattle Times article states is currently happening, as I recall. :wink2:


FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
All of this is a mute point. Why? Sir time says that deference not cancellations of orders is on the table.


If he defers part of it out to beyond 2030, it might as well be a cancellation from Boeing's perspective. Especially if the model he defers is the 777-8.



If Emirates really wants to reduce their 777X order in favor of a (new) 787 order, the most-logical candidate model to drop is the 777-8. Emirates and either Etihad/or Qatar negotiated their order together (along with the 777-9) to launch the program and the model always seemed to me to be custom-made for Emirates route-growing structure at the time: launch with a 280-seat 777-200LR, grow to a 777-300ER (blocking seats as necessary) and then grow to an A380-800. The 777-8 gave them (effectively) 777-300ER capacity with a 777-200LR's range so no need to use payload-restricted 777-300ERs.

With Etihad out, that makes 45 orders for the type. Even if Qantas chooses it for Project Sunrise, that will only recover Etihad's 10 cancelled orders with maybe another 5 tacked on top - so still only 60 frames, which matches the 59 the 777-200LR delivered. As EK likes to sell and lease-back, with so few frames around I expect the rates they are being offered are not too favorable. And they can use the 777-9, instead, even if it is not the optimal choice. Qatar is said to be hurting financially so I would not be at all surprised if they would jump at a chance to walk away from their 10 frame commitment - especially if they are the only customer left.

Boeing is not going to want to spend the resources completing the 777-8's development and certify the model for only 10-25 orders. So if EK backs out of their 35, the 777-8 is done regardless of where Qatar and Qantas stand on it. They'll freeze the program like they did the 777-200LR in 2002 and revisit it down the road when it comes time for the 777-8 Freighter to enter the market. But that will likely be at least 2030 considering how young the current 777 Freighter fleet is.
 
Geoff1947
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:26 pm

KFLLCFII wrote:
NeBaNi wrote:
Erebus wrote:
It was long assumed by most here that EK will never cancel 777Xs. Interesting turn of events...

Emirates has a history of signing MoUs for aircraft and not firming them, as well as canceling firm orders, so I don't think any Emirates order, based on its history and going into its future, can be deemed "safe" until the aircraft are actually delivered. A couple of orders from the past:
    :arrow: Nov 2003: EK ordered 2x A340-500s, 18x A340-600s, and 21 A380-800s. The A340-600s were canceled in Oct 2006.
    :arrow: Nov 2007: EK ordered 50x A350-900s and 20x A350-1000s. These were canceled sometime before Jun 2014, when Airbus confirmed it.
    :arrow: Jul 2008: EK ordered 30x Airbus A350-1000s and 30x A330-300s. The airline let the MoU expire and confirmed it in Jun 2010.
    :arrow: Of course, we know about the recent cancellation of the 39 A380s.
So, the long-held assumption that EK will never cancel its 777x order does not seem grounded in reality, given the airline's past actions.

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if some (or many) of the last A380s still on the order books are NTU.


You shouldn’t be surprised and nor will anyone else as a further 39 cancellations , not yet finalised, have already been announced !
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:30 pm

Stitch wrote:
If he defers part of it out to beyond 2030, it might as well be a cancellation from Boeing's perspective.


Under ASC 606 rules, would they have to remove them from the backlog?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Sooner787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:53 pm

I tend to agree with the others that if EK cancels their 778 orders and QF passes over the
778 for their Project Sunrise contest, that model may never see the light of day.

I think STC's comments mean the 779's will be their defacto A380 replacments, so their
delivery schedule will be modified to allow for such
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:59 pm

Stitch wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
The Seattle Times article quotes Clark saying says the -10 LOI has now lapsed

MrHMSH wrote:
You’re right... so how can they convert a lapsed LoI?


Well not like Clark can't negotiate a new LoI / MoU / Firm Order - which the Seattle Times article states is currently happening, as I recall. :wink2:



He absolutely can negotiate a new LoI, MoU or firm order... which means that he wouldn't be converting an order/LoI for 40 78Xs into 789s, which is what you claimed could happen. There is no 787 order or commitment of any type now, any 787 order would be new or converted from their 777X order.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:10 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
The Seattle Times article quotes Clark saying says the -10 LOI has now lapsed

MrHMSH wrote:
You’re right... so how can they convert a lapsed LoI?


Well not like Clark can't negotiate a new LoI / MoU / Firm Order - which the Seattle Times article states is currently happening, as I recall. :wink2:



He absolutely can negotiate a new LoI, MoU or firm order... which means that he wouldn't be converting an order/LoI for 40 78Xs into 789s, which is what you claimed could happen. There is no 787 order or commitment of any type now, any 787 order would be new or converted from their 777X order.

How about we just say they could convert their 778 order to the 787. Fair enough?
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:14 pm

Stitch wrote:
If he defers part of it out to beyond 2030, it might as well be a cancellation from Boeing's perspective.

scbriml wrote:
Under ASC 606 rules, would they have to remove them from the backlog?


If Boeing felt that there was not a reasonable chance for them to be eventually delivered, then yes.


MrHMSH wrote:
He absolutely can negotiate a new LoI, MoU or firm order... which means that he wouldn't be converting an order/LoI for 40 78Xs into 789s, which is what you claimed could happen. There is no 787 order or commitment of any type now, any 787 order would be new or converted from their 777X order.


The pedantry that has permeated this forum of late has really lowered my interest in even reading it, much less continue to participate. It was bad enough when it was just the newbies and fanboys, but now that more established and respected members are starting to willfully engage in it as well... :gnasher:

Just so we're all on the same page, my premise is that regardless of how they f**king decide to do it, I believe that if Emirates reduces/defers some or all of the 777X commitments for 787 commitments, the 777-8 is the first and most likely model they will select for said reduction/deferment.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:22 pm

Stitch wrote:
If he defers part of it out to beyond 2030, it might as well be a cancellation from Boeing's perspective. Especially if the model he defers is the 777-8.


Wouldn't it make more sense for EK just to have the A350-1000 now that it has been upgauched? So I agree the 778 is the prime candidate to divert or cancel outright, especially with the comments of Boeing last week.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Checklist787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:28 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
The Seattle Times article quotes Clark saying says the -10 LOI has now lapsed

MrHMSH wrote:
You’re right... so how can they convert a lapsed LoI?


Well not like Clark can't negotiate a new LoI / MoU / Firm Order - which the Seattle Times article states is currently happening, as I recall. :wink2:



He absolutely can negotiate a new LoI, MoU or firm order... which means that he wouldn't be converting an order/LoI for 40 78Xs into 789s, which is what you claimed could happen. There is no 787 order or commitment of any type now, any 787 order would be new or converted from their 777X order.


Clark / EK may well have canceled 30 777-X's to convert them to 787's as it did to the detriment of the A380's in favor of the A330neo s and A350-900's.

The 777-X is in a monopolistic situation and will have to produce at least until 2035-2040.

I predict 650 777-X's sold until this period :bigthumbsup:
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:47 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:
IMO, the most-likely part of the EK 777X order to be cut is the 35 777-8s. They can shed those and convert the 40 787-10 to 787-9 for similar CAPEX. That frees Boeing to stop active development on the 777-8 as Etihad has already decided against theirs and Qatar will be happy to be allowed to drop their commitments to the type as the only remaining customer. This will save Boeing CAPEX as well as free engineering resources for other projects.

EK can just use 777-9s with blocked seats on the routes they planned to use the 777-8 on just as today they used 777-300ERs with blocked seats on routes that were originally launched with 777-200LRs.


How can they convert an order that doesn't exist anymore?


I think we all understand that there isn’t a firm order for the 787’s. I think we also get that Stitch is saying “switch to the -9”. Firm order or no, STC is using basically the same lingo in discussing the potential order.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:51 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Wouldn't it make more sense for EK just to have the A350-1000 now that it has been upgauched? So I agree the 778 is the prime candidate to divert or cancel outright, especially with the comments of Boeing last week.


I think the A350-1000 at 319,000kg could be a very solid replacement for the 777-8 as Emirates intended to use it. And I fully expect that Emirates Fleet Planning people have been running simulations to that effect.

And if it works for Emirates, you know darn well it would work for Etihad and Qatar, as well. Hence the chatter that Boeing is considering shelving development of the model for the time being.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:09 pm

Stitch wrote:
The pedantry that has permeated this forum of late has really lowered my interest in even reading it, much less continue to participate. It was bad enough when it was just the newbies and fanboys, but now that more established and respected members are starting to willfully engage in it as well...

Just so we're all on the same page, my premise is that regardless of how they f**king decide to do it, I believe that if Emirates reduces/defers some or all of the 777X commitments for 787 commitments, the 777-8 is the first and most likely model they will select for said reduction/deferment.


Agree 100% with both paragraphs.

A.net can really be a drag nowadays and having the frustratingly pedantic and biased opinions coming from respected, established and knowledgeable members makes it a million times worse...

Back to the topic at hand, if any changes are going to be made by EK with their 777X orders, I also believe it will be the 778 that gets singled out...

Makes sense too. The 78J is of a similar size to the 778 and is good for most (relatively) long haul missions.

The A359 is a star performer already and can do almost everything the 778 can do, except if you really really need the extra space of the 778 - in which case the A35K will do nicely. The A35K just keeps gaining ability. The 778 is being squeezed into an ever tighter niche.

The current 77F still has strong sales and can do great work for those who need it for some time to come. Boeing can always resurrect the 778 for the 77F replacement down the road when the time is right because it is just a shrink of the 779 anyway. Why bother spending valuable, limited resources NOW on something that (as history has shown us) doesn't have much of a future anyway..?
Never be proud. Always be grateful.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:24 pm

Stitch wrote:

Just so we're all on the same page, my premise is that regardless of how they f**king decide to do it, I believe that if Emirates reduces/defers some or all of the 777X commitments for 787 commitments, the 777-8 is the first and most likely model they will select for said reduction/deferment.


You cannot possibly know that. No one can.

Certainly not from the Seattle Times piece either. Especially when Sir Tim is talking of deferrals, not cancellations.

Until something IS actually cancelled, it will contrdict sir Tim's remarks.

Personal premises/opinions do not come into it. Sorry.
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:28 pm

As mentioned the A350 is the elephant in the room. If A350 hets NEO in 2026? then how will the 779 and perhaps in combination with a 2000 model will the 779 be the best solution?
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:38 pm

The only thing we all know is that whenever EK places an order, MoU, LoI, BJ or whatsoever, one should take it with an iceberg of salt...

Is the 330neo order firm? I mean contractually firm, not EK-ish firm...
 
h1fl1er
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:38 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
Agree 100% with both paragraphs.

A.net can really be a drag nowadays and having the frustratingly pedantic and biased opinions coming from respected, established and knowledgeable members makes it a million times worse...

Back to the topic at hand, if any changes are going to be made by EK with their 777X orders, I also believe it will be the 778 that gets singled out...

Makes sense too. The 78J is of a similar size to the 778 and is good for most (relatively) long haul missions.

The A359 is a star performer already and can do almost everything the 778 can do, except if you really really need the extra space of the 778 - in which case the A35K will do nicely. The A35K just keeps gaining ability. The 778 is being squeezed into an ever tighter niche.


anet is also a drag because very conversation turns into an endorsement of the a350. the 350 hasn't been performing well in sales for quite awhile and EK already passed on this model repeatedly. the -K has been a very slow seller. If they're going to go away from the 778 why would they turn around and buy a plane they've shown little interest in for a decade?

the 778 always occupied a small niche, as small as the LR in passengers. for freighter, quite bit bigger. it will be made for that purpose alone if necessary bc it will offer the 9x engine's massive fuel improvements with the bigger wing and larger size vs LR. B sold 60 LRs they will probably end up selling 60 -8s. but they've sold a couple hundred -Fs. that's a successful model.

the real is that the 787 is squeezing everything bigger than it out of relevance. boeing must have aobut 5 or 6 years ago achieved some kind of production cost breakthrough bc since hten it's the model that runs away from all others in sales.

the 779 will sell if an airline really needs a huge plane. maybe the K at 10-across can compete for some of htose orders if you want RR engines. otherwise all this bigger bigger bigger that these jets are going is just the makers trying to hopefully find a sales angle but it hasn't been working
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:40 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
You cannot possibly know that. No one can.


Hence my use of conditional statements like "if" and "I believe".


FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Certainly not from the Seattle Times piece either. Especially when Sir Tim is talking of deferrals, not cancellations.


A long-enough deferral can become a de facto cancellation - especially now with ASC 606 which does not allow Boeing to "hold on" to an order forever until the airline finally makes up it's mind (ala Philippine Airline's outstanding 747-400 order that everyone knew would never be delivered as 747-400s, but stood on the books as such for close to a decade before being converted to 777-300ERs).


FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Personal premises/opinions do not come into it. Sorry.


This is a discussion forum. Personal premises and opinions are the point of being here.

If all you want are "hard facts", I suggest you restrict yourself to Boeing's Press page.
 
grbauc
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:57 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

I insisted nothing.

I merely quoted the figures Mr Clark supplied to the newspaper. It's there for all to see.


And I supplied the whole sentence of the quote, so what is your point?


My point is that you infered that EK would cancel the 777-8s. I proved from the article that Mr Clark said nothing of the sort and in fact the 150x 777x order is more likely to be delayed not cancelled.

That is the point.

:)



I though what you thought mjoelnir was saying at first but He clearly is stating IMOP. Has someone else pointed out to me (and I agree) the article is a little all over the place. Its clear there wanting 787's but there MOU ran out and they want 789 now instead of 787-10 and want to stretch out there 777X order and are using its big weight to negotiate.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:59 pm

Another opinion about deferrals as they relate to the 777X program:

With the 777X's current order book, long-term deferrals can have a direct impact on the line's productivity. The "classic" 777's production rate has contracted from 8.3 to 3.5 per month over the past five years, with the 777X "adding" another 1.5 frames per month on a separate line (Boeing is not actually producing 1.5 777X a month, but sufficient frames that over a production year the average works out to 1.5 a month).

Boeing has only two years of 777 production left at the current production rate with the current order book and I frankly don't see them getting anywhere near the 42 frames a year they need to keep Rate 3.5 going forward indefinitely. So like the 747, the 777 rate will likely continue to wind down until it is probably at below one-frame per month. So within the next year or two, Boeing will have to either start negotiating with suppliers to support much lower annual shipset production or they will have to place "last call" orders with customers so they can then place "last call" shipset orders with suppliers needed to complete those frames plus whatever spares inventory they feel is appropriate to maintain.

Boeing will want to accelerate the 777X production rate as much as they can to take advantages of the economy of scale from suppliers as well as creating production slots to help win RFPs from customers. With the current 344 orders, Boeing has five years of production at 6 frames a month (Rate 6) which is probably the minimum they want. I do not believe this includes Etihad's expected reductions so Boeing may be closer to a Rate 5 over that period. Any additional cancellations or long-term deferrals (5 years or more), regardless of who the customer is, would directly impact the sustainability of that production rate. And if Boeing only has enough "solid" orders to support, say, a Rate 4 for that period, then that is going to hurt them as it relates to production slot availability in RFPs against an A350 that is currently at Rate 10 (and was recently being considered for Rate 13) and has a not-insignificant number of open production slots past 2023.
Last edited by Stitch on Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tomcat
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:01 pm

Stitch wrote:
Boeing is not going to want to spend the resources completing the 777-8's development and certify the model for only 10-25 orders. So if EK backs out of their 35, the 777-8 is done regardless of where Qatar and Qantas stand on it. They'll freeze the program like they did the 777-200LR in 2002 and revisit it down the road when it comes time for the 777-8 Freighter to enter the market. But that will likely be at least 2030 considering how young the current 777 Freighter fleet is.


Is it really Boeing's best interest to postpone the transition from the 772F to the 778F? I can conceive that the 772F having no competition at the moment, it can be sold with a solid profit margin. On the other hand, once the 773ER production will be terminated, Boeing will end up producing in parallel low numbers of 772F and 779, while GE would the produce the GE9X in parallel with the GE90. It would make some sense for Boeing and GE to streamline their production and to maximize the economies of scale by terminating the 772F production and launching the 778F. The latter would probably sell in equivalent numbers than the 772F is currently selling even if the 772F fleet replacement cycle hasn't started. Also, differing the development of the 778F would facilitate Airbus entry into that market. With the A351 now at 319t, Airbus is also a shrink away from having a very competitive freighter in the 772F category.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:11 pm

tomcat wrote:
Is it really Boeing's best interest to postpone the transition from the 772F to the 778F? I can conceive that the 772F having no competition at the moment, it can be sold with a solid profit margin. On the other hand, once the 773ER production will be terminated, Boeing will end up producing in parallel low numbers of 772F and 779, while GE would the produce the GE9X in parallel with the GE90. It would make some sense for Boeing and GE to streamline their production and to maximize the economies of scale by terminating the 772F production and launching the 778F. The latter would probably sell in equivalent numbers than the 772F is currently selling even if the 772F fleet replacement cycle hasn't started. Also, differing the development of the 778F would facilitate Airbus entry into that market. With the A351 now at 319t, Airbus is also a shrink away from having a very competitive freighter in the 772F category.


Yes, it is possible that the 777F's production rate would be so low as to make it not economically viable to continue to produce it. But I expect Boeing to do more of a "last call" with current and potential operators rather than immediately launch the 777-8F. Cargo operators know a 777-8F is an eventuality so it should not be a case of "if Boeing doesn't build it now, they will not come later". And with fuel so inexpensive right now, some operators are reactivating parked 747-400P2F frames rather than order new-build 747-8 or 777 freighters. So I am just not sure how popular the 777-8 freighter would be in the current environment to actually put it into production.

It should not be an issue for Boeing Engineering to continue to develop the freighter at a lower priority, which means it should be readily available when the market is ready for it even if there is no 777-8 passenger model in production / in service. The first 777 freighter was delivered within three years of the first 777-200LR and the program was launched within two years of development resuming on the 777-200LR (said development having been halted some 2.5 years earlier with only 10% of the design work completed at the time).
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:11 pm

Given generous 777X pricing and low production, Boeing will probably make as much profit selling one 788 as 2-4 X's for the next decade (just like the Airbus conundrum with profit per unit A380 v A321NEO).

Commercial aviation product manager power should be inverted. In Boeing, the 747/777 traditionally held sway, when it should have been the 737, and perhaps now 787. In Airbus, it was A380, then A350/330, when it should be A32/A22 family.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:15 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
It boggles my mind that more people are flying yet airlines are on a trend to offer less seats per route. I genuinely do not understand the economics of it. You can only add so much frequency. And while small efficient planes open up new routes, well established routes will continue to grow. There must be some logic to it...

Because you can bypass hubs taking significant traffic from the established routes.

Going from San Francisco to Melbourne 10 years ago you had to go through both Los Angeles and Sydney. 3 flights have now been replaced with a single direct flight saving over 5 hours.

https://www.qantas.com/travelinsider/en ... liner.html

This is probably the best example of how the 787 has transformed the market. Airport fees are reduced due to less stops giving massive cost savings and the airline can charge more increasing profit.

True but there are only so many routes you can add. Additionally, there is still a lot of O&D traffic and Business traffic heading to airports considered large hubs. I highly doubt Chicago and New York are going to magically stop growing because of increased direct flights to other cities. Airports like LA still have 90% of their traffic ending there. Finally, Emirates whole business is based off of connecting passengers through Dubai. They already do it quite well with their existing large fleet.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:29 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
It boggles my mind that more people are flying yet airlines are on a trend to offer less seats per route. I genuinely do not understand the economics of it. You can only add so much frequency. And while small efficient planes open up new routes, well established routes will continue to grow. There must be some logic to it...

Because you can bypass hubs taking significant traffic from the established routes.

Going from San Francisco to Melbourne 10 years ago you had to go through both Los Angeles and Sydney. 3 flights have now been replaced with a single direct flight saving over 5 hours.

https://www.qantas.com/travelinsider/en ... liner.html

This is probably the best example of how the 787 has transformed the market. Airport fees are reduced due to less stops giving massive cost savings and the airline can charge more increasing profit.

True but there are only so many routes you can add. Additionally, there is still a lot of O&D traffic and Business traffic heading to airports considered large hubs. I highly doubt Chicago and New York are going to magically stop growing because of increased direct flights to other cities. Airports like LA still have 90% of their traffic ending there. Finally, Emirates whole business is based off of connecting passengers through Dubai. They already do it quite well with their existing large fleet.


With the new non-stops available, connectors like EK have no choice but to drop fares. As of now they do this by playing games with "Basic Business" and the like, but eventually they have to do so transparently.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:37 pm

Drop the 778 for now. No one really wants it. Development can wait for a few years until at least there is a business case for the freighter by itself.

Instead of the 35 778, EK will get roughly 60 789.

Boeing will get to save on the 778 development costs.

Boeing will get EK to become an 787 customer, which will allow top up orders in the future.

EK will get to stretch the delivery dates of its 779 as part of this, rationalising its order book with its new strategy.

Boeing gets to fill the 787 order book to allow production to ramp up to 14/month.

Everyone will go home happy.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:58 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
The pedantry that has permeated this forum of late has really lowered my interest in even reading it, much less continue to participate. It was bad enough when it was just the newbies and fanboys, but now that more established and respected members are starting to willfully engage in it as well...

Just so we're all on the same page, my premise is that regardless of how they f**king decide to do it, I believe that if Emirates reduces/defers some or all of the 777X commitments for 787 commitments, the 777-8 is the first and most likely model they will select for said reduction/deferment.


Agree 100% with both paragraphs.

A.net can really be a drag nowadays and having the frustratingly pedantic and biased opinions coming from respected, established and knowledgeable members makes it a million times worse...


I don't mind the pedantry when it takes 4 posts to get it right. If it takes that long to get something right that is in the article then you have to wonder whether it was just a mistake. Maybe their LOI is still active, but according to the article it isn't and that is what we have to go on until we get new information.


MoKa777 wrote:
Back to the topic at hand, if any changes are going to be made by EK with their 777X orders, I also believe it will be the 778 that gets singled out...

Makes sense too. The 78J is of a similar size to the 778 and is good for most (relatively) long haul missions.


No, the 778 is not similar sized to the 78X. We have had a thread about the 78X increase in MTOW being a threat to the A359 and the A359 is not competing with the 778 in size, so I don't know how you would consider them a similar size.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:00 pm

I think this is just an indication of where we are in the global economy right now, we are at the "its not growing as fast as we thought stage" and companies are reacting to that. The next stage is the market is matured and levelled out, followed by it just a temporary correction and then.......

At some point along this arc someone will say "but this time its different." At that point worry.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:15 pm

I am not so sure about a 777-8F, at least not in the design now proposed for the 777-8.

IMO the 777-8 design comes out to heavy compared to the 777F. The MTOW increase above the 777F should be 4 t, but the OEW increase should be at least 15 t. The decrease in fuel carried should be far less than on the pax version, let us say 10 t.
The calculation is very rough, but I do not see how interesting a far more expensive 777-8F would be carrying a similar or smaller payload than the 777F.
Trying to save weight, reducing the stretch, or no stretch at all and you could get a better freighter.
 
h1fl1er
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:17 pm

aryonoco wrote:
Drop the 778 for now. No one really wants it. Development can wait for a few years until at least there is a business case for the freighter by itself.


it's basically already done

779 is in flight tests. no real money to save

may as well sell a few to qantas and ek and qr

really it comes down to how well the 779 performs and the ge9x engine. if this thing exceeds significantly then it is def game on

delta even has LRs despite being a 'bus shop just for the hauling - they are in no hurry to dump them bc of their payload ability, even picked up one more last year. there's a niche for this frame, not a big one, but it's there. engines and frame have to deliver efficiency tho

I think the future could be better than expected but only if the efficiency is there just because the trend of airlines is to try to haul cargo too, grow that business. so while they're trying to squeeze pennies with small frames they still need some big ones to take the high buck huge payloads

The calculation is very rough, but I do not see how interesting a far more expensive 777-8F would be carrying a similar or smaller payload than the 777F.


for way less fuel, yes you do see how interesting
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:26 pm

h1fl1er wrote:
(the 777-8 is) basically already done


Maybe. Maybe not. When Boeing suspended development of the 777-200LR in 2001, it was only about 10% complete in terms of design work. The 777-300ER was rather further along at that time.



h1fl1er wrote:
779 is in flight tests. no real money to save


You still have to build a 777-8 and send it through its own flight test and certification program. And as we saw with the 787-10, that can take awhile even if it is almost directly based on a previous model (787-9).


h1fl1er wrote:
may as well sell a few to qantas and ek and qr


Assuming they're willing to pay enough to justify the expense of building them. QR received launch pricing on their model and QF is certainly going to be driving down the price they want to pay.


h1fl1er wrote:
for way less fuel (on the 778F then 77F), yes you do see how interesting


General cargo freighters usually fly close to their MZFW and therefore operate on shorter hops. They also generally see much lower utilization than passenger frames. As such, fuel burn, while important, is probably not the top factor in RoI and NPV calculations.*

* - An exception would be FedEx, whom use their 777Fs on very long stage-lengths from China to their hubs in the eastern United States.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:31 pm

enzo011 wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
The pedantry that has permeated this forum of late has really lowered my interest in even reading it, much less continue to participate. It was bad enough when it was just the newbies and fanboys, but now that more established and respected members are starting to willfully engage in it as well...

Just so we're all on the same page, my premise is that regardless of how they f**king decide to do it, I believe that if Emirates reduces/defers some or all of the 777X commitments for 787 commitments, the 777-8 is the first and most likely model they will select for said reduction/deferment.


Agree 100% with both paragraphs.

A.net can really be a drag nowadays and having the frustratingly pedantic and biased opinions coming from respected, established and knowledgeable members makes it a million times worse...


I don't mind the pedantry when it takes 4 posts to get it right. If it takes that long to get something right that is in the article then you have to wonder whether it was just a mistake. Maybe their LOI is still active, but according to the article it isn't and that is what we have to go on until we get new information.


MoKa777 wrote:
Back to the topic at hand, if any changes are going to be made by EK with their 777X orders, I also believe it will be the 778 that gets singled out...

Makes sense too. The 78J is of a similar size to the 778 and is good for most (relatively) long haul missions.


No, the 778 is not similar sized to the 78X. We have had a thread about the 78X increase in MTOW being a threat to the A359 and the A359 is not competing with the 778 in size, so I don't know how you would consider them a similar size.


So rather than get what he was saying like almost everyone else seemed to do, you’d prefer to imply he was purposely misleading. Why would he? What single reason would there be for someone who’s been contributing here so long and so prolifically to mislead the forum about the status of the EK/787 order?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
texl1649
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:44 pm

EK is the largest cargo pax airline in the world. I believe their cargo revenues, while not up much, are around $3.4 billion/year. They fly like a hundred tons a week of belly freight just to the Philippines. But, cargo has been under pressure.

EK only got 13 new aircraft last year; 7 380’s and 6 77W’s. For an airline with such a huge fleet, often on short leases of 12 years (6.1 yrs of age is their average they say), it’s a remarkable decrease. And let’s not forget, that as oil prices increase (as they have this year), ‘unique’ or $$$ cargo spend into the ME through EK bellies only increases. The 77X is built/designed to do precisely that long haul pax/cargo combo for EK.

My point is, this is probably just a shuffling on the latter of 3 tranches as the 779 is an inevitability, as is the continued growth of freight capacity as the 779’s replace A380’s over time (cargo tons/revenue have never fallen year over year at EK, and revenue was up in every region except the Persian gulf last year for them). The A359 order is there and it is a good cargo hauler in it’s own right, but it is not in any way likely to displace the need for continuing deliveries of 77X’ models to replace/upgauge their 160 or so 777’s over the coming decade, in addition to the obviously outgoing A380 fleet. They’re not going to go to a NWA DC-9 model, but a more reasonable 15-20 year service life goal for operating the 777’s would make some sense (as shown by the refurbishment of their 777-200LR’s they seem to agree).
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:44 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Especially when Sir Tim is talking of deferrals, not cancellations.

Until something IS actually cancelled, it will contrdict sir Tim's remarks.


Yet when United defers A350 deliveries (despite adding additional frames twice) the 'a.net consensus' is they don't want them and can't wait to get rid of them. :spin:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:16 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I was expecting similar news about EY before EK


EY already spoke months ago. They are only taking 6 out of the 25.

I would expect similar news from QR though.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:22 pm

Stitch wrote:
Another opinion about deferrals as they relate to the 777X program:

With the 777X's current order book, long-term deferrals can have a direct impact on the line's productivity. The "classic" 777's production rate has contracted from 8.3 to 3.5 per month over the past five years, with the 777X "adding" another 1.5 frames per month on a separate line (Boeing is not actually producing 1.5 777X a month, but sufficient frames that over a production year the average works out to 1.5 a month).

Boeing has only two years of 777 production left at the current production rate with the current order book and I frankly don't see them getting anywhere near the 42 frames a year they need to keep Rate 3.5 going forward indefinitely. So like the 747, the 777 rate will likely continue to wind down until it is probably at below one-frame per month. So within the next year or two, Boeing will have to either start negotiating with suppliers to support much lower annual shipset production or they will have to place "last call" orders with customers so they can then place "last call" shipset orders with suppliers needed to complete those frames plus whatever spares inventory they feel is appropriate to maintain.

Boeing will want to accelerate the 777X production rate as much as they can to take advantages of the economy of scale from suppliers as well as creating production slots to help win RFPs from customers. With the current 344 orders, Boeing has five years of production at 6 frames a month (Rate 6) which is probably the minimum they want. I do not believe this includes Etihad's expected reductions so Boeing may be closer to a Rate 5 over that period. Any additional cancellations or long-term deferrals (5 years or more), regardless of who the customer is, would directly impact the sustainability of that production rate. And if Boeing only has enough "solid" orders to support, say, a Rate 4 for that period, then that is going to hurt them as it relates to production slot availability in RFPs against an A350 that is currently at Rate 10 (and was recently being considered for Rate 13) and has a not-insignificant number of open production slots past 2023.


I very much share your opinion on the production front. But to note, we are still some years away before when the bulk of the 77W replacement wave kicks in. They are obviously going to sell more than what they have on their books but will it be as many as they did with the 77W. I've also wondered if some of the 77W sales were attributed to its long range capability rather than capacity. Back before when the 787 and A350 production were in full swing, the A330 and the 77W were the hottest selling widebody models but the former could not match the latter for range. And now we have 787/A350s that are in that range category and I could see them competing for a few 77W replacements as well.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:41 pm

Erebus wrote:
I've also wondered if some of the 77W sales were attributed to its long range capability rather than capacity.


IMO, the 777-300ER sold on it's capacity - passenger and cargo. Using 6000nm as a baseline (which puts most of the world's hubs within distance of each other), the 777-200ER would lift 52,000kg using Boeing ACAP charts compared to 65,000kg for the 777-300ER.

And MZFW range was not much different between them: 5800nm for the 77E compared to 5750nm for the 77W. But the 77W was lifting 70,000kg compared to 59,000kg for the 77E (again, using Boeing ACAP charts).


Erebus wrote:
Back before when the 787 and A350 production were in full swing, the A330 and the 77W were the hottest selling widebody models but the former could not match the latter for range.


No, but on shorter stage lengths it did burn a significantly lower amount of fuel thanks to its lighter operating weights. It chased the 777-200ER out of the market as it could lift similar payloads at significantly lower fuel loads. The 777-300ER prevailed because it could lift much more, even if it burned more fuel to do it.
 
tomcat
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:42 pm

Stitch wrote:
h1fl1er wrote:
for way less fuel (on the 778F then 77F), yes you do see how interesting


General cargo freighters usually fly close to their MZFW and therefore operate on shorter hops. They also generally see much lower utilization than passenger frames. As such, fuel burn, while important, is probably not the top factor in RoI and NPV calculations.*

* - An exception would be FedEx, whom use their 777Fs on very long stage-lengths from China to their hubs in the eastern United States.


It's not the first time that I'm reading on this forum that (general) cargo freighters usually see a much lower utilization than passenger frames. I'm not so familiar with cargo operations but my understanding of it is the following:
- integrators (like Fedex,...) tend to have low utilization of aircraft dedicated to the transcontinental night flights (that's where a low fuel efficiency can be acceptable)
- integrators usually fly less dense payloads, hence are usually more concerned about the fuselage volume than the max payload of an aircraft
- About the general cargo freighters, I just had a quick look at some stats from Cargolux to have an idea of their operational statistics. For the year 2017, they indicated the following:
FTKs increased by 12.3%. Consequently the load factor of the airline increased to 70.1% for the year.

Market demand remained high throughout 2017 resulting in the airline generating a record 131,212 block hours, a 7% increase compared to the previous year. Accordingly aircraft utilization remained high with the daily average utilization in excess of 15:00 hours.

Going by these few bullet points, it's not so clear to me that low aircraft utilization is a constant across the freighter market and especially in the general cargo market. I don't know if Cargolux is an exception in that regards but I'd be surprised that LH/EK/SQ Cargo would display much different utilization patterns.

My conclusion at this stage is that the freighters market is dual: there is a demand for less efficient/used aircraft alongside a demand for new and efficient freighters.

mjoelnir wrote:
I am not so sure about a 777-8F, at least not in the design now proposed for the 777-8.

IMO the 777-8 design comes out to heavy compared to the 777F. The MTOW increase above the 777F should be 4 t, but the OEW increase should be at least 15 t. The decrease in fuel carried should be far less than on the pax version, let us say 10 t.
The calculation is very rough, but I do not see how interesting a far more expensive 777-8F would be carrying a similar or smaller payload than the 777F.
Trying to save weight, reducing the stretch, or no stretch at all and you could get a better freighter.


Indeed, the OEW of the 778F with the currently known length of the 778 appears to be an issue. On the Sunrise Project, Qantas said at some point that they were waiting for more weight data about the 778, while Boeing said in substance that they had to tweak it to meet Qantas requirements. Now it seems that the fuel capacity of the 778 has been increased compared to the initial figure. Could this be an indication that Boeing has come with a 778 slightly shorter than initially planned? It would make the 778 more suitable for a freighter version, while definitely giving it the range to operate the most demanding Sunrise routes with a full pax load.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:10 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Stitch wrote:
IMO, the most-likely part of the EK 777X order to be cut is the 35 777-8s. They can shed those and convert the 40 787-10 to 787-9 for similar CAPEX. That frees Boeing to stop active development on the 777-8 as Etihad has already decided against theirs and Qatar will be happy to be allowed to drop their commitments to the type as the only remaining customer. This will save Boeing CAPEX as well as free engineering resources for other projects.

EK can just use 777-9s with blocked seats on the routes they planned to use the 777-8 on just as today they used 777-300ERs with blocked seats on routes that were originally launched with 777-200LRs.


All of this is a mute point.

Why?

Sir time says that deferance not cancellations of orders is on the table.

Are people even reading the Times article???

I'm astounded.

A little more clarity:. Clark said he’s discussing with Boeing “a combination of the 150 777Xs and the 40 787s, essentially looking to keep the numbers in place, but substituting and spacing them out over a longer timeline.”

Huh... Appears to want 787s, wants 777x, but slower.

Ok... Somehow I'm not seeing the drama. IMHO EK must slow orders. No dramatic blow to Boeing. No collapse of EK.

I hope Sir Tim gets over his virus. Bummer for an aviation great to miss the PAS.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:11 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
RandWkop wrote:
Is it possible that these negotiations were partly triggered by Boeing not seeing a business case for the 778?


Hypothetically speaking, that would also have to mean that Boeing doesn’t see Qantas going their way for Sunrise. I’m reluctant to buy this theory, although it certainly did make me think.


RandWkop wrote:
Also the quote that EK will complete widebody orders from both OEMs by November. If the 330NEO and 350 orders are firm, what will EK take in this new order?


Although the 380 cancelations are reflected in Airbus’ order book, the 330 and 350’s orders haven’t shown up yet. He is probably referring to those.
QANTAS isn't big enough to buy that many Sunrise planes.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:23 pm

Stitch wrote:
IMO, the 777-300ER sold on it's capacity - passenger and cargo. Using 6000nm as a baseline (which puts most of the world's hubs within distance of each other), the 777-200ER would lift 52,000kg using Boeing ACAP charts compared to 65,000kg for the 777-300ER.


I can agree on that.

But I still think that there are a handful of airlines who'd be comfortable with replacing 77Ws with 787 or A350s.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:43 am

I continue to believe that the 777x program is in trouble. Its too big and too heavy for most "real" airlines. Most of its orders are from ME3 and they're in trouble financially. What a tragedy Boeing did 777x and the 747-8 instead of MOM and a 737 replacement.
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