lutfi
Posts: 880
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:59 am

For CX - they are replacing the B773ER with a mix of B779 and A35J. The 779 are to replace the 4 class 773, and the A35J to replace the 3 class.
 
worldranger
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:01 am

FWIW - internal word is that EK have asked Airbus to accelerate delivery of 339. Watch this space
 
speedbird52
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:04 am

Dieuwer wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Because you can bypass hubs taking significant traffic from the established routes.

Going from San Francisco to Melbourne 10 years ago you had to go through both Los Angeles and Sydney. 3 flights have now been replaced with a single direct flight saving over 5 hours.

https://www.qantas.com/travelinsider/en ... liner.html

This is probably the best example of how the 787 has transformed the market. Airport fees are reduced due to less stops giving massive cost savings and the airline can charge more increasing profit.

True but there are only so many routes you can add. Additionally, there is still a lot of O&D traffic and Business traffic heading to airports considered large hubs. I highly doubt Chicago and New York are going to magically stop growing because of increased direct flights to other cities. Airports like LA still have 90% of their traffic ending there. Finally, Emirates whole business is based off of connecting passengers through Dubai. They already do it quite well with their existing large fleet.


With the new non-stops available, connectors like EK have no choice but to drop fares. As of now they do this by playing games with "Basic Business" and the like, but eventually they have to do so transparently.

Who in their right mind would pick EK 1 stop over Qantas non stop if the fares were the same? Won't they have to price tickets low anyway?
 
grbauc
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:15 am

speedbird52 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
True but there are only so many routes you can add. Additionally, there is still a lot of O&D traffic and Business traffic heading to airports considered large hubs. I highly doubt Chicago and New York are going to magically stop growing because of increased direct flights to other cities. Airports like LA still have 90% of their traffic ending there. Finally, Emirates whole business is based off of connecting passengers through Dubai. They already do it quite well with their existing large fleet.


With the new non-stops available, connectors like EK have no choice but to drop fares. As of now they do this by playing games with "Basic Business" and the like, but eventually they have to do so transparently.

Who in their right mind would pick EK 1 stop over Qantas non stop if the fares were the same? Won't they have to price tickets low anyway?


Many people don't like that long of plane ride. The non stop will be hard pressed I think to be able to match fares.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:38 am

Ugly51 wrote:
If this is true in anyway it's a real kick in the balls for BA. The 777X order for Emirates was the largest order on the books.
This might also be a negotiating tactic. Clark has been known to play hardball with both BA and Airbus. He has a history of playing them off against each other to get the result he wants.


Please don't refer to Boeing as BA, BA is one of Boeings customers.Also they refer to themselves as Boeing. No aerospace, Aviation or other term, just Boeing.
 
ITSTours
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:43 am

rbavfan wrote:
Ugly51 wrote:
If this is true in anyway it's a real kick in the balls for BA. The 777X order for Emirates was the largest order on the books.
This might also be a negotiating tactic. Clark has been known to play hardball with both BA and Airbus. He has a history of playing them off against each other to get the result he wants.


Please don't refer to Boeing as BA, BA is one of Boeings customers.Also they refer to themselves as Boeing. No aerospace, Aviation or other term, just Boeing.


Boeing's stock symbol is BA, so if somebody wants to refer Boeing as BA it is totally fine.
I don't deny the fact that there might be a confusion with British Airways.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:45 am

rbavfan wrote:
Ugly51 wrote:
If this is true in anyway it's a real kick in the balls for BA. The 777X order for Emirates was the largest order on the books.
This might also be a negotiating tactic. Clark has been known to play hardball with both BA and Airbus. He has a history of playing them off against each other to get the result he wants.


Please don't refer to Boeing as BA, BA is one of Boeings customers.Also they refer to themselves as Boeing. No aerospace, Aviation or other term, just Boeing.


BA is Boeing's trading symbol on NYSE. So the prior poster is absolutely right. But I can see how that can cause confusion too.
 
ITSTours
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:47 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
I continue to believe that the 777x program is in trouble. Its too big and too heavy for most "real" airlines. Most of its orders are from ME3 and they're in trouble financially. What a tragedy Boeing did 777x and the 747-8 instead of MOM and a 737 replacement.


Airlines that disagree with your view:

ANA
Cathay
Singapore
British Airways
Lfuthansa

You better Fone up these airlines and explain why + how you know better than them.


If you add all of them it is still less than 100. Without ME3 orders 777-X would not have been built.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:01 am

SteelChair wrote:
I continue to believe that the 777x program is in trouble. Its too big and too heavy for most "real" airlines. Most of its orders are from ME3 and they're in trouble financially. What a tragedy Boeing did 777x and the 747-8 instead of MOM and a 737 replacement.


The 777X programe reminds me most of the A340NG which was killed off by the 777 after 120 odd deliveries, not a bad plane but not able to live with a clean sheet design either.
BV
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:03 am

worldranger wrote:
FWIW - internal word is that EK have asked Airbus to accelerate delivery of 339. Watch this space

That‘s kind of funny. They haven’t even confirmed the contract but they already ask Airbus to accelerate the deliveries?

But thanks for the information. I really wasn’t sure if the neo-loi was just another loi that will never materialize, in particular since EK is interested in 787 as well.
 
ELBOB
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:16 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
BA is Boeing's trading symbol on NYSE. So the prior poster is absolutely right. But I can see how that can cause confusion too.


"The Boeing Co. ( NYSE:BA ) operates primarily in SIC Code 8741 - Management Services and NAICS Code 561110 - Office Administrative Services"

There's absolutely no reason to use the head office stock ticker to represent the parts of Boeing which produce airliners. Just type four more letters and remove ambiguity.
 
Tartarus
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:30 am

worldranger wrote:
FWIW - internal word is that EK have asked Airbus to accelerate delivery of 339. Watch this space

Possibly as early as Q3 2020.
 
Ugly51
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:48 am

Cantankerous old bunch on here sometimes.
BA (Boeing Aircraft)
BA (British Airways)
Just a note BA are not only a Boeing customer. I am sure you already know that.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:50 am

N14AZ wrote:
worldranger wrote:
FWIW - internal word is that EK have asked Airbus to accelerate delivery of 339. Watch this space

That‘s kind of funny. They haven’t even confirmed the contract but they already ask Airbus to accelerate the deliveries?

But thanks for the information. I really wasn’t sure if the neo-loi was just another loi that will never materialize, in particular since EK is interested in 787 as well.


While they have yet to finalise the A380/A330neo/A350 deal, the very article on which this thread is based, makes it pretty clear it will happen.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:53 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
BA is Boeing's trading symbol on NYSE. So the prior poster is absolutely right. But I can see how that can cause confusion too.


Given this is not a finance or stock market site, using the stock code for Boeing is more than just a little obtuse and does cause confusion. IMHO.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:03 am

grbauc wrote:
Many people don't like that long of plane ride. The non stop will be hard pressed I think to be able to match fares.

Actually the same aircraft stopping half way only saves approximately 10% of the total fuel burnt. You then save an entire set of airport fees flying non stop. It would be easy for the non stop to match fares.

The issue is payload suddenly drops near the maximum range of an aircraft. E.g
300 passengers 8,500nm
200 passengers 9,000nm
100 assengers 9,500nm

So the fuel cost per passenger would nearly be three times the price on a route 9,500nm instead of 8,500nm.

Providing the distance of a route is before this sudden range drop then the non stop option will always be successful.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:19 am

ITSTours wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
I continue to believe that the 777x program is in trouble. Its too big and too heavy for most "real" airlines. Most of its orders are from ME3 and they're in trouble financially. What a tragedy Boeing did 777x and the 747-8 instead of MOM and a 737 replacement.


Airlines that disagree with your view:

ANA
Cathay
Singapore
British Airways
Lfuthansa

You better Fone up these airlines and explain why + how you know better than them.


If you add all of them it is still less than 100. Without ME3 orders 777-X would not have been built.


Let's see:

ANA - 20
Cathy- 21
Singapore- 20
British - 18
Lufthansa - 20
Unidentified - 10

Hm.....thats before we consider the options etc. But anyhooo, that total is more than 100. Thanks.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:36 am

RJMAZ wrote:
grbauc wrote:
Many people don't like that long of plane ride. The non stop will be hard pressed I think to be able to match fares.

Actually the same aircraft stopping half way only saves approximately 10% of the total fuel burnt. You then save an entire set of airport fees flying non stop. It would be easy for the non stop to match fares.

Your mistake is the assumption, that the same aircraft would be used. Compare two short 781 legs with one long 778 leg.

During the first half of an ULH flight, more than anything else, the aircraft would be nothing more than a passenger carrying tankship.

Plus airport fees are a tiny portion of long haul operating cost. Especially as the middle point of the two 781 legs could be placed at "cheap" airports taxwise.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:02 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

Airlines that disagree with your view:

ANA
Cathay
Singapore
British Airways
Lfuthansa

You better Fone up these airlines and explain why + how you know better than them.


If you add all of them it is still less than 100. Without ME3 orders 777-X would not have been built.


Let's see:

ANA - 20
Cathy- 21
Singapore- 20
British - 18
Lufthansa - 20
Unidentified - 10

Hm.....thats before we consider the options etc. But anyhooo, that total is more than 100. Thanks.


You added to the list, when you add something you get a different number.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 144
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:13 am

BoeingVista wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
I continue to believe that the 777x program is in trouble. Its too big and too heavy for most "real" airlines. Most of its orders are from ME3 and they're in trouble financially. What a tragedy Boeing did 777x and the 747-8 instead of MOM and a 737 replacement.


The 777X programe reminds me most of the A340NG which was killed off by the 777 after 120 odd deliveries, not a bad plane but not able to live with a clean sheet design either.


Certainly a bad joke on your part. If the 777-X is an A340 NG I do not even imagine what an A350-1000 would be for you.. :roll:
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:20 am

mjoelnir wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
ITSTours wrote:

If you add all of them it is still less than 100. Without ME3 orders 777-X would not have been built.


Let's see:

ANA - 20
Cathy- 21
Singapore- 20
British - 18
Lufthansa - 20
Unidentified - 10

Hm.....thats before we consider the options etc. But anyhooo, that total is more than 100. Thanks.


You added to the list, when you add something you get a different number.


Actually, the 10x orders as unidentified was accidental missed by me in the earlier post.

So no, I didn't add anything extra to skew the numbers. They are what they are, even if you don't like it.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:22 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
Your mistake is the assumption, that the same aircraft would be used. Compare two short 781 legs with one long 778 leg.

The Boeing payload range charts have different takeoff weights so we can actually work out how much fuel the 787-10 would use flying with a stop.

The 777-8 numbers for project sunrise seem to be 30T of payload with the aircraft maxed out. That is approx 155T of fuel loaded.

The 787-10 would be taking off at 228T to fly 4600nm with the same 30T of payload. It would carry 62T of fuel for one half of the leg or 124T of fuel total. So the two 787-10 flights will use 80% of the fuel of the single 777-8 flight.

The fuel difference is pretty large, but airport fees at Singapore are high. Staff will work a few more hours with the one stop option. You then have to have accomodation for staff at the mid point. I think the difference will be minimal.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:27 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
I continue to believe that the A380 program is in trouble. Its too big and too heavy for most "real" airlines. Most of its orders are from ME3 and they're in trouble financially. What a tragedy Airbus did A380 and the A340-600.


Airlines that disagree with your view:

Qantas
Air France
Singapore
British Airways
Lfuthansa

You better Fone up these airlines and explain why + how you know better than them.


I feel like this is a repeat of the A380 debate. How’d that turn out? And before you answer, keep in mind that nothing in your reply contradicts what Steel Chair wrote.


I agree, it is a reoeat of the A380. Its already slowpedaling, hoping the market will come up to it. Unless it gets significant orders in the next 2-3 years, its dead imho.
 
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SQ32
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:39 am

There is nothing in the market today to replace vast number of EK A380. Closest being the 777-9x. Anything smaller will severely impact EK operation.

Not sure if Boeing can recover the investment from just a few major customer such as EK.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:44 am

SteelChair wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

Airlines that disagree with your view:

Qantas
Air France
Singapore
British Airways
Lfuthansa

You better Fone up these airlines and explain why + how you know better than them.


I feel like this is a repeat of the A380 debate. How’d that turn out? And before you answer, keep in mind that nothing in your reply contradicts what Steel Chair wrote.


I agree, it is a reoeat of the A380. Its already slowpedaling, hoping the market will come up to it. Unless it gets significant orders in the next 2-3 years, its dead imho.


It is true that the A350-900 and 787's also have slow sales compared to A32Xneo and 737Max's. It does not make A350 and 787 aircraft on the verge of death. Leave the A380 where it is. Beautiful bird but heavy and too big

The 777-X is the class of the 777-300ER's with its lower engine thrust than its predecessor. :)

It will sell 550-600 777-X until 2035-2040.
 
uta999
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:59 am

The problem with the 777-X is it is an unknown quantity, too big, very heavy and years into the future before it is delivered and proven. Boeing should have just updated the 77W cheaply years ago, and ignored EK.

It also has the very successful 787-8/9/10 biting at it's heals which is a known, lighter, more modern and efficient, available sooner and well respected by everyone.

By now they should have built a completely new CFRP 777, based on the 787 successes.
Your computer just got better
 
Checklist787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:52 am

uta999 wrote:
The problem with the 777-X is it is an unknown quantity, too big, very heavy and years into the future before it is delivered and proven. Boeing should have just updated the 77W cheaply years ago, and ignored EK.

It also has the very successful 787-8/9/10 biting at it's heals which is a known, lighter, more modern and efficient, available sooner and well respected by everyone.

By now they should have built a completely new CFRP 777, based on the 787 successes.


Please read my comment above there are all the answers :roll:
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:05 am

SQ32 wrote:
There is nothing in the market today to replace vast number of EK A380. Closest being the 777-9x. Anything smaller will severely impact EK operation.

The same applies to the other A380-operators. More than 100 A380s will have to be replaced sooner or later.
 
marcelh
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:29 am

N14AZ wrote:
SQ32 wrote:
There is nothing in the market today to replace vast number of EK A380. Closest being the 777-9x. Anything smaller will severely impact EK operation.

The same applies to the other A380-operators. More than 100 A380s will have to be replaced sooner or later.

Maybe 2 smaller planes (B789) and doubling the frequency can be a very interesting alternative.
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:41 am

ITSTours wrote:
Boeing's stock symbol is BA, so if somebody wants to refer Boeing as BA it is totally fine.
I don't deny the fact that there might be a confusion with British Airways.

Is it so difficult to type out 'Boeing' and avoid the confusion?
 
marcelh
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:46 am

Checklist787 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:


LOL!!! It should probably have kept the old aluminum wing is that? :roll:



The GE9X TRUSTS LESS than the GE-90-115B you know what THAT IMPLIES ?

That the 777-9X is not overweight as you claim to say. This means that it is as good as the 777-300ER while having the potential to carry 20 more passengers.

The 777-9X will carry 350 seats in 3-classes including 8 first seats and 49 lie-flat business seats.

If in 2019 having such caracteristics you seem "extravagant", you must surely be to think to take holidays



A LOT of Asian airlines (especially) and the ME3's like this kind of features.

The good news is that these two places hold the strongest growth in the world.

Many Asian airlines have been delivered by 777-300ER since 2015.

Nothing allows to say that the 777-X is late on the market on the contrary it is still slightly canibalised by the 777-300ER!



The A350's and 787's can configured in 3 classes hardly reach the 300 seats. (320 seats for the A350-1000).

The 777-X does it without problems, which is why it outclassed the A350-1000 in terms of orders


Boeing did well to launch it and build it :roll:

The 779 outclassed the A350-1000 for now, because it’s tailor-made for the biggest customer. Maybe we should look in about 10 years which is more succesful.


Ten years! okay ...

It's been 13 years since the A350-1000 was launched ...

Please read my comment about the 777-X. You SEEM NOT to look reality :roll: like a lot here

I have trouble reading your comments, because using a lot of this kind of comments is almost the same as SHOUTING! :banghead:
It’s obvious you are a Boeing enthousiast and that’s fine with me. But don’t try to exaggerate please :biggrin:
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:09 pm

SteelChair wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

Airlines that disagree with your view:

Qantas
Air France
Singapore
British Airways
Lfuthansa

You better Fone up these airlines and explain why + how you know better than them.


I feel like this is a repeat of the A380 debate. How’d that turn out? And before you answer, keep in mind that nothing in your reply contradicts what Steel Chair wrote.


I agree, it is a reoeat of the A380. Its already slowpedaling, hoping the market will come up to it. Unless it gets significant orders in the next 2-3 years, its dead imho.


To be clear, I think that the 777X’s future is far from certain. I’m not a huge fan of it but it might sell ok for quite a few years. A380 ok? More? Not sure.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:52 pm

Thread has deteriorated into personal attacks.

I've warned and will soon ban
Do not discuss other users.
The topic is EK differing) switching orders.
Tone down the A vs. B
This is your last warning
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
sibibom
Posts: 368
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:42 pm

I think A321XLR and the potential B797 are making life difficult for the larger widebodies and traditional hub airlines. Especially EK will feel the heat soon. Multiple smaller airlines in Europe and middle east will go down this road. Indigo is talking about a new mega order (I am assuming A321XLR). EK (and hence QR and EY) need to rationalise their orders. It may not be a bad thing than EK is acting right away before its too late.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:11 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
The 787-10 would be taking off at 228T to fly 4600nm with the same 30T of payload. It would carry 62T of fuel for one half of the leg or 124T of fuel total. So the two 787-10 flights will use 80% of the fuel of the single 777-8 flight.

The fuel difference is pretty large, but airport fees at Singapore are high. Staff will work a few more hours with the one stop option. You then have to have accomodation for staff at the mid point. I think the difference will be minimal.


And you need to pay for the aircraft while decending, tanking and getting it back up to cruise, you put at least half an hour more time on the engines and half an hour + a cycle on fuse and wings, use your breaks twice... and carbon breakes wear pretty much per use, not how much you use them when you do.... lots of tiny per flight/cycle cost that the non-stop doesn't have. Fuel is just not that expensive I guess....

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
behramjee
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:50 pm

worldranger wrote:
FWIW - internal word is that EK have asked Airbus to accelerate delivery of 339. Watch this space


Yes this is true as they want it from the on set of Q2-2020 (April).
 
mjoelnir
Topic Author
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:59 pm

worldranger wrote:
FWIW - internal word is that EK have asked Airbus to accelerate delivery of 339. Watch this space


Emirates was expecting to get 777-9 delivered in June 2020, that will be delayed. The A330neo should be the only frame they can get fast.
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:57 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Emirates was expecting to get 777-9 delivered in June 2020, that will be delayed. The A330neo should be the only frame they can get fast.


How long will the 777-9 be delayed, omniscient one?
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:33 pm

Boeing is now saying delivery will take place "much later in 2020 than originally planned." I tend to assume that means New Year's Eve.

Between that and the A380s, I'm sure Emirates would love to get some A330-900 lift on property as fast as possible.

In the end, though, Emirates needs the 777X more than any other airliner, and it will take a whole lot of them. Whether that's 150 or not, I guess the parties will figure out. But the airline's operational model requires a whole lot of very large aircraft, and yet A380s (especially early A380s) will have increasingly difficult economics as the 2020s wear on.
 
AC77X
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:35 pm

uta999 wrote:
The problem with the 777-X is it is an unknown quantity, too big, very heavy and years into the future before it is delivered and proven. Boeing should have just updated the 77W cheaply years ago, and ignored EK.

It also has the very successful 787-8/9/10 biting at it's heals which is a known, lighter, more modern and efficient, available sooner and well respected by everyone.

By now they should have built a completely new CFRP 777, based on the 787 successes.

And the 777, of all planes, is apparently not well known or respected? And yes, the 787 is lighter, it's a smaller aircraft. Wasn't the problem that most airlines don't need a 77L or 77W replacement yet?
 
Aither
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:44 pm

We can draw many parallels between the 77x backlog and the A380: few operators , one having half of the orders, very few orders after the launch customers.

Smells like A380 story could repeat itself. With the new ultra range and efficient 787s and A350s even 777s could be too big. They almost disappear from the US airlines by the way.
Never trust the obvious
 
justloveplanes
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:38 pm

I think the difference is A) The 777x is a twin, B) it is a potent cargo hauler C) It has leadership engine tech D) Trip costs are substantially lower than an A380.

So the tech re: economics or market re: aircraft size/configuration don't parallel. Some similarities to the A380, but also fundamental differences.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:55 pm

justloveplanes wrote:
I think the difference is A) The 777x is a twin, B) it is a potent cargo hauler C) It has leadership engine tech D) Trip costs are substantially lower than an A380.

So the tech re: economics or market re: aircraft size/configuration don't parallel. Some similarities to the A380, but also fundamental differences.


Those are great points imho. I'll add one more that has also been mentioned E) large installed user base of 777s at quite a few operators around the globe.

If it succeeds (and it still might), it'll be for those 5 reasons imho. A nice global economic expansion and some political stability might help also! I just think the odds are very long for success right now.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:58 pm

worldranger wrote:
FWIW - internal word is that EK have asked Airbus to accelerate delivery of 339. Watch this space


If true, that would be a fascinating turn of events. No doubt, its a great airplane and if RR can get their problems ironed out, I'm sure Airbus could build the frames in a reasonable time frame.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:55 am

Aither wrote:
We can draw many parallels between the 77x backlog and the A380: few operators , one having half of the orders, very few orders after the launch customers.

Smells like A380 story could repeat itself. With the new ultra range and efficient 787s and A350s even 777s could be too big. They almost disappear from the US airlines by the way.

It will depend on EIS weight and efficiency, PIPs and competitive PIPs. The 77W hurt the A380 by quickly burning 4% less fuel than promise and a MTOW increase that opened up missions only the quads were supposed to be efficient at.

CFRP for the high turbine is a new tech in the GE9x. If RR can match within 3 years, advantage A350. If weight reduction PIPs favor either, their is the advantage.

I fully agree the larger frame starts with a competitive disadvantage as they must haul some greater number of seats free to account for the last seats filled are lower yield (possibly not filled).

I see a business case for the 777x. It isn't likely to be 6 tons over EIS promise empty weight as the A346 and A388 were at EIS. It will be a bit late, but I doubt the years of the 788 or A388. If it dramatically beats promised EIS service as did the 77W or 789, it will sell.

Lightsaber
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9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:07 am

SteelChair wrote:
If it succeeds (and it still might), it'll be for those 5 reasons imho. A nice global economic expansion and some political stability might help also! I just think the odds are very long for success right now.

It depends on how you define success.

Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury claims the A380 was a success with 251 orders.

The 777X should have no problem meeting this very low bar.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:59 am

This is no surprise. STC played both A and B. A got out with first aid and B is heading for a trauma.

Comparing A380 to 777X is not accurate. A380 was a generation old program.
One should compare 777X with A380NEO which stopped on paper (or) A380plus with 3D printed winglet cabin re-config static display. A mgmt proved smarter by not investing in either.

Thinking that Dubai airshow 787 order was a major win was another misstep for B. Rather than tightening the 777X contract terms, showing up to sign EK (might as well)authored 787 liberal contract was another mistake.

In summary losing is winning with EK.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:49 am

tommy1808 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The 787-10 would be taking off at 228T to fly 4600nm with the same 30T of payload. It would carry 62T of fuel for one half of the leg or 124T of fuel total. So the two 787-10 flights will use 80% of the fuel of the single 777-8 flight.

The fuel difference is pretty large, but airport fees at Singapore are high. Staff will work a few more hours with the one stop option. You then have to have accomodation for staff at the mid point. I think the difference will be minimal.


And you need to pay for the aircraft while decending, tanking and getting it back up to cruise, you put at least half an hour more time on the engines and half an hour + a cycle on fuse and wings, use your breaks twice... and carbon breakes wear pretty much per use, not how much you use them when you do.... lots of tiny per flight/cycle cost that the non-stop doesn't have. Fuel is just not that expensive I guess....

Best regards
Thomas

Very good points. Taking that into account it would be hard for the one stop to be cheaper. The fuselage cycles would be a big cost as the aircraft would wear out quicker. The 787-10 might last 20 years doing two flights a day but the 777-8 might last 30 years doing one flight a day. The 787-10 has to get replaxed earlier which is a huge cost.

The project sunrise aircraft would have a very easy life thanks to the low cycles. As Qantas already keeps their aircraft for a long time the 777-8's could be in the fleet for quite a while.
 
grbauc
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:25 am

Checklist787 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

I feel like this is a repeat of the A380 debate. How’d that turn out? And before you answer, keep in mind that nothing in your reply contradicts what Steel Chair wrote.


I agree, it is a reoeat of the A380. Its already slowpedaling, hoping the market will come up to it. Unless it gets significant orders in the next 2-3 years, its dead imho.


It is true that the A350-900 and 787's also have slow sales compared to A32Xneo and 737Max's. It does not make A350 and 787 aircraft on the verge of death. Leave the A380 where it is. Beautiful bird but heavy and too big

The 777-X is the class of the 777-300ER's with its lower engine thrust than its predecessor. :)

It will sell 550-600 777-X until 2035-2040.



I don't think your too far off. Were in a valley lots of planes will need to be replaced 2030 time frame... its just the cycle were in. Lot of over ordering and life cycles at play here.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:36 am

grbauc wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:

I agree, it is a reoeat of the A380. Its already slowpedaling, hoping the market will come up to it. Unless it gets significant orders in the next 2-3 years, its dead imho.


It is true that the A350-900 and 787's also have slow sales compared to A32Xneo and 737Max's. It does not make A350 and 787 aircraft on the verge of death. Leave the A380 where it is. Beautiful bird but heavy and too big

The 777-X is the class of the 777-300ER's with its lower engine thrust than its predecessor. :)

It will sell 550-600 777-X until 2035-2040.



I don't think your too far off. Were in a valley lots of planes will need to be replaced 2030 time frame... its just the cycle were in. Lot of over ordering and life cycles at play here.


Unless airlines continue to replace losts of aircraft with smaller ones for more flexibility...... compared to 787-9 and A359 everything above sells rather slow. But then again, some 600 or so big birds are not all that much when other widebodies add up to thousands...

best regards
Thomas
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