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DylanHarvey
Posts: 152
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 02, 2019 4:09 pm

scbriml wrote:
DylanHarvey wrote:
This dude also said the A350 could be coming to the end of its life with the proposed 78X MTOW increase. So yea we will question the thought process


Was that the MTOW increase that was announced at Paris?

Yeah, but to say the A350 production is now in jeopardy is insane.
 
Absynth
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:46 pm

People here are missing the forest for the trees.

1. The 380X got cancelled, the order changed to 30 A350's that will somehow have no effect on the 35 777-8 order, which is a plane with near identical specs to what has now been ordered from Airbus?

2. Emirates are changing strategies: expanding the amount of routes to feed into those fat A380 routes; instead of fewer fat feeders there will me more thin feeders. For this they need smaller widebodies like the 787 and 330.

3. Pushing the 777 orders backwards changes the role and thus their criteria for the airplane, I still can't believe nobody seems to realise this. Instead of adding additional routes through the 777 they will be defacto replacements for the A380's. And for this they will need a larger version of the 777.

Everything we know points to the 777-8X cancelled / postponed and a 777-10X about 5-10 years later instead
 
jagraham
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:28 pm

The 778 is better than the 77W at anything the 77W does except for ULD positions.
The mentality is causing the 778 to get off to a slow start, but in the end the 778 will be fine.
As far as EK, they still have their 10 77Ls according to Airfleets. And there is a reason for that. The 778 will replace those 77Ls when the time comes. As well as a fair bit of the 77W flying.
Between the A380s and the 777s, EK has 255 aircraft in the largest sizes. Even if the A359s were dedicated to 77W flying, (the A339s will do different things, as will some of the A359s in the end), the numbers of 779s, 778s, and A359s being discussed represents a reduction. But it will take 20 years for complete turnover.
 
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keesje
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:08 pm

Emirates got 10 777LR's in the past. After operating them and reviewing ROI, that might be a reason to introduce 777-8s, or a reason to not take the 777-8s after all. When EK ordered the 777L, there where no 787s and A350s as proven, much lighter alternatives. Who wants a small, expensive orphan fleet?
Last edited by keesje on Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:23 pm

jagraham wrote:
The 778 is better than the 77W at anything the 77W does except for ULD positions.
The mentality is causing the 778 to get off to a slow start, but in the end the 778 will be fine.
As far as EK, they still have their 10 77Ls according to Airfleets. And there is a reason for that. The 778 will replace those 77Ls when the time comes. As well as a fair bit of the 77W flying.
Between the A380s and the 777s, EK has 255 aircraft in the largest sizes. Even if the A359s were dedicated to 77W flying, (the A339s will do different things, as will some of the A359s in the end), the numbers of 779s, 778s, and A359s being discussed represents a reduction. But it will take 20 years for complete turnover.

We are moving off topic, but the 339's will fly current FZ routes. May even wear FZ (or dual) titles.

EK / FZ demarcation is evolving, with changes emulating IAG, starting with aircraft acquisition. Probably FZ has made it's last aircraft order, unless MAX options are converted.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:24 pm

Absynth wrote:
People here are missing the forest for the trees.


I think some of your trees look a bit funny.

1. The 380X got cancelled, the order changed to 30 A350's that will somehow have no effect on the 35 777-8 order, which is a plane with near identical specs to what has now been ordered from Airbus?


The A350-900 is hardly identical to a 777-8 - it's a smaller, lighter aircraft with less payload range and substantially lower fuel burn. Emirates has not been an airline to fly thin ULH routes and I doubt they'll start now. I suspect the A350-900 will fly routes similar to the current long-haul 77W fleet, offering flexibility to add additional frequencies and gauge as most appropriate. I would expect that ULH will grow on the 777, consistent with current practice. The question, as Stitch keeps asking, is whether the planned ULH network is more profitable overall using a fleet of 777-8s or abused 777-9s. Right now, Emirates is quite fond of abusing 777-300ERs on ULH by blocking seats.

3. Pushing the 777 orders backwards changes the role and thus their criteria for the airplane, I still can't believe nobody seems to realise this. Instead of adding additional routes through the 777 they will be defacto replacements for the A380's. And for this they will need a larger version of the 777.


I'm sure Emirates would love a 777-10X as A380 replacement. The question is whether Boeing has any incentive to spend the money to develop it.

Today, Airbus and Boeing are locked in a staredown where each one knows that stretching its big widebody will force the other to do the same. Airbus could upset this balance of power, and force a stretch by Boeing, with an A350 re-engine—if the engine is ready on anything close to the desired timeline. But I just don't see how that happens less than a decade from now. And without that happening, Boeing knows that the 777-9 is the best A380 replacement out there and that EK will be forced to use it as such.

Everything we know points to the 777-8X cancelled / postponed and a 777-10X about 5-10 years later instead


My crystal ball looks a bit different. Emirates will take some 777-8, but maybe later than planned; when it happens may depend on other factors, like Project Sunrise or a slowdown in 777F sales. Just as with the A380neo, Emirates doesn't have the clout by itself to force a 777-10X to be built. Interestingly enough, it is likely Rolls Royce that has the most influence over any 777X stretch.
 
Absynth
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 02, 2019 10:53 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I'm sure Emirates would love a 777-10X as A380 replacement. The question is whether Boeing has any incentive to spend the money to develop it.


As opposed to spending that money on a plane hardly anyone wants (Etihad is already out by all accounts) and for which Airbus has a leaner alternative they just ordered a similar amount of?

If Emirates needs 120 777-10X's to replace their A380 fleet, guess how quick Boeing will find that incentive? The current 9X with ~400pax is simpy too small an airplane to be a proper A380 successor for their fat routes.

We already have one example in this thread of Boeing gauging interest for the 10X, and this was during the A380 era where it didnt have much reason to exist. But post-A380 the landscape is different. The incentive from Boeing is a given, but the VLA market is that niche nowadays, that it's basically Emirates that will decide which variants will be developed, and which will be shelved.
 
Lewton
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:51 am

I am also for a 777-10 instead of 777-8, but can the 777 be stretched further and still be safe to fly?
 
StTim
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:29 am

It must be in danger of breaching the 80m box.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:06 am

I am of the view that whatever replaces the A388 will need to be bigger than a 779X but weigh a lot less and be substantially cheaper to operate than the A388. I do think the 777 has probably come to the end of its design potential now with the 8/9X and there is fairly limited scope for growth and efficiency gains at this point much past the 779X.

It will need to be a massive twin but as St Tim notes, will need to fit in the 80m "box" and will need folding wings like the 779X to accomplish this. Pavement loading will need to be at a level that requires no airport modifications. It will need to offer circa 20% more floorspace than a 779X but also be a cargo monster, unlike the A388. Fuel burn will need to be so compelling that it forces the market to take a risk on it vs the safer bet of A35J and 779X. It will need to be capable of doing ULH missions if necessary, so DXB-LAX, LHR-PER, SIN-LAX, DXB-AKL etc.

Its a pretty tall order. Can the 777 be stretched and reengined (?) to get to this level and still have the compelling economics requiring the airlines to jump on?

I don't know. I will say I don't think the A350 can likely be stretched for the same reason to this monster scale. I'm not convinced it will make sense. You start running into efficiency limitations when you lengthen a tube that much, and ground clearance/tailstrike/flare behaviour cannot fully be ironed out with the computers.

I wonder if there will be a clean sheet design or whether the sheer cost of such an adventure will not just scupper the plane from the beginning? Market is the likes of SQ, EK, KE, LH, BA, AF, TG, CX, MU, CA, CZ and their ilk. Unlikely to be more than 300 frames. EK will likely be the biggest operator and may account for as many as a third of all the frames ordered. It is a niche plane but that is the niche they work in. It would be a massively compelling value proposition for them.

How does it look? I'm thinking 12 abreast composite tube, open architecture, Ultrafan twin, same cockpit as A350 or 787, full commonality...

Call me a hopeless romantic idealist but i wonder if there is scope for Airbus and Boeing (or COMAC? Or even Emirates?) to collaborate on such a design and bring it to market? With the understanding that competition on such niche aircraft programmes makes it a near-impossible value proposition for shareholders, so without collaboration it will never be built because the outlay is so huge and the profits so tiny that nobody sees the value in it. So the hyper-competitive market landscape means that we are condemned to fly round on small twins for the rest of our existence and true innovation is stymied as it is too expensive. I'm all for adding value for shareholders but once profits get in the way of pushing the envelope and really innovating then the pace of progress is slowed because it isnt making enough money.

I'm no socialist but it seems to be the only way to really attack this vast project is through working together if we want something truiy groundbreaking.

I'm sure many of our US members are laughing out loud at the idea of working with the enemy but i promise you folks, that day is probably coming and sooner than you think.
 
Absynth
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 10:02 am

I don't think there is enough market for a ground up 11 or 12 abreast plane.

Designing one in cooperation sounds like a recepy for miscommunication, errors and budget and planning overruns, so very unlikely.

I think a small stretch to 80m for the 777 is all that is feasible in our lifetime.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 10:56 am

Absynth wrote:
I don't think there is enough market for a ground up 11 or 12 abreast plane.

Designing one in cooperation sounds like a recepy for miscommunication, errors and budget and planning overruns, so very unlikely.

I think a small stretch to 80m for the 777 is all that is feasible in our lifetime.



I think Airbus learned their lessons in the A380 wiring debacle and are a much more rounded organisation now than they were. Bringing the C-Series on property will only have widened its experience here.

At the end of the day Airbus and Boeing are more or less the same - they are vast technology multinationals that spend huge sums on aeronautical research. Both employ massive r&d teams and are engineering focused. Both are almost paperless and use very similar design software. Both make their money on eking out efficiency savings in the build process and both are profitable. Both are proven to be able to take an aircraft family and improve/develop/modernise it as per market requirements. Both have dominant market shares in different segments and both have seen major programmes adversely affected by needing to compete with the other guy when in reality the smart money was to cede certain segments and focus on others rather than having a product that competes in every class/segment. Both have been accused of acting with hubris and arrogance in the past, perhaps trying to prove something, whereas both are now just about the money and the value. If something doesn't have a value proposition, it wont get built. Airbus is a radically different, more diverse, more modern and less political animal than when they built the A380. In effect it became a lot more like Boeing is now.

You look at the way Boeing and Airbus now use a LOT of subcontracting for parts and components - this would have been unthinkable 30 years ago but its how major programmes are done now. So if Boeing can work with Shorts, Spirit, GE, Zodiac, Mitsubishi, Embraer, Honeywell, Leonardo and Northrop-Grumman why cant they work with Airbus?

Yes there are ethos differences and of course the language issue. There would be major challenges on how to divide work, divide rights to research and of cousre how to harmonise processes and software, internal resource management and supply chain management.

Such a thing would be utterly unworkable and completely unrealistic 20 or even 10 years ago but times change, and so has the market.

Lets not forget the Europeans have been working in consortiums to build massive aviation projects for decades - it isnt anything new. Concorde, Tornado, Typhoon and now the two major 5th gen fighter programmes are examples of this - littered with hubris and difficulties in the past but as i say, times change and nationalistic pride and predjudice isnt what it was.

Picture this -

Emirates come to Boeing and Airbus and get everyone sitting round a table. The project divides up as, simplistically, as Boeing designs the fuselage which is completed in the same way the 787 barrels are. Airbus is contracted the wings which are done how Airbus does them now. Engines from GP Alliance and RR. Emirates' parent group (IE: Dubai govt) invest several billion into the development costs in exchange for preferential pricing when the new plane is ready and takes the lead on providing MX services, directly or by franchise, globally to all users. Hell, you could even assemble it in Dubai if you wanted to. Would cut costs for sure as long as the Boeing/Airbus unions were prepared to accept it.
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:16 am

I don't think pushing the 777 past 80 M will be as hard as people think.

I would guess if they go this route they drop the 8 and the 10 is as simple a stretch as possible - and it seems like they have thought about it. So it would come a few years later - right when EK starts retiring a lot of A380's.

Rotation angle could be an issue - but I think they built more margin into the 9 with Wing Changes so the 9 doesn't need a tail skid even with it's longer length.

A throttle push (to allow a faster take off speed and lower rotation angle for a given runway length and/or going back to the tail skid) may be all that is needed to enable an 85M beast. Assuming an equal amount added fore and aft of the wing that is only about a 12' longer tail. Given they have taken the Ge9X to 134,000 lbs in testing should mean 110-115,000 in thrust if needed is possible.

BTW - If Boeing is able to stretch the 777X to 85M and 360T MTOW - what kind of range could they get out of it? Similar to 781 I assume? Over time it could inch up over 7,000NM. The original 777-300ER range wasn't much more than that using Boeing's new rules of cabin configuration.

Interesting that an 8.2M stretch is about 320" or up to 10 more rows/100PAX all in Y assuming you don't need more bathrooms/exits. But it's a lot. 2-class that should be an additional 60-70 seats taking it into the 450-475 (more than some A380's were configured at) range and really differentiating it from the A351 (and 781). 3 Class under Boeing's rules should put it at about 400 - about A380 Capacity for some carriers. You don't lose all that space with the stairs.

AC would probably cram 550+ into an aircraft that size. Hard to fill but the CASM would be great.

An 8.2m stretch would probably add 15ish% to the Cabin Length.

As Stitch noted previously length in excess of the 80M box is probably not as big of an issue as excess width would be.

The A380 in -1000 versions was envisioned to go to 85M - you would have to guess all the A380 gates in the World took this into account even though they weren't certified for length in excess of 80M.

If they do go that route (Stretching to 85M) they might be able to drop the Folding tips as well as an option which would save them some weight.

That's got to be worth a bit of extra range.

A 777X 85M based Twin with 360T MTOW would negate the need for a 11 or 12W clean sheet and the 777X would start to make a lot more sense to me.

I always thought they were kind of crazy not to do an Ovalish Carbon 11W Barrel 777 replacement based on the 787 - however at 85M the 777x could be a very different story.

Everything they are doing (Margin left in the Engine, really big wing - working on MTOW increases) leads me to believe that there is where they are going (stretching to 80M plus) and makes a lot more sense than spending money on 778. It would cost more but I would be amazed if they haven't taken this length of stretch into account when designing 779. It should be a relatively simple stretch and doable in less than 5 years - right in time for A380 replacement.

At 360T the 779 would probably work as the 777F replacement and I would think they would sell a lot more 777-10 than 777-8. Not a thousand but at least a few hundred over time to payoff the investment.
Last edited by morrisond on Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:19 am

I believe that 11-abreast is the limit with 2 aisles.

A clean sheet, 80m long twin with 80m folding wings, 11-abreast Y, 9-abreast W and something like UA Polaris J may be quite compelling. I can imagine a configuration like this: 432 (64J45W323Y)
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Amiga500
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:22 am

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I am of the view that whatever replaces the A388 will need to be bigger than a 779X but weigh a lot less and be substantially cheaper to operate than the A388. I do think the 777 has probably come to the end of its design potential now with the 8/9X and there is fairly limited scope for growth and efficiency gains at this point much past the 779X.

It will need to be a massive twin but as St Tim notes, will need to fit in the 80m "box" and will need folding wings like the 779X to accomplish this. Pavement loading will need to be at a level that requires no airport modifications. It will need to offer circa 20% more floorspace than a 779X but also be a cargo monster, unlike the A388. Fuel burn will need to be so compelling that it forces the market to take a risk on it vs the safer bet of A35J and 779X. It will need to be capable of doing ULH missions if necessary, so DXB-LAX, LHR-PER, SIN-LAX, DXB-AKL etc.


The market won't bear it - but taking on board the lessons from A380 and borrowing from matt's broken record :D (whilst ignoring the big lesson - VLA is dead! - we'd get):

=> Double-deck fuselage[1]
=> Range no greater than 7000nm to keep airframe weight down[2]
=> Folding wingtips for the 80m box.[3]
=> Single model family with wing & empennage perfectly optimised to fuselage.[4]
=> Number of engines determined by requirements, performance and availability. Might be better with 4, might be better with 2.[5]

=> If compromise not too great, middle floor beams are not essential part of fuselage structure so can be removed from cargo version - or relocated further up the ribs to enlarge cargo space.
=> Cockpit housed on a bubble half a level above the upper deck so the nose can be hinged on a cargo version for unobstructed loading of large items.


[1] A380 was very efficient in terms of fuselage wetted area and fuselage weight per passenger carried
[2] The logic being; better to aim for brilliant CASM in the bulk of the market and let the large single decks serve the ULH niche.
[3] Induced drag is a well known big A380 problem
[4] The oversized wing and empennage is another well known big A380 problem.
[5] 2 engines is not a slam-dunk, although many without an indepth knowledge of the compromises believe it to be so.
 
musman9853
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:59 am

keesje wrote:
Emirates got 10 777LR's in the past. After operating them and reviewing ROI, that might be a reason to introduce 777-8s, or a reason to not take the 777-8s after all. When EK ordered the 777L, there where no 787s and A350s as proven, much lighter alternatives. Who wants a small, expensive orphan fleet?


It probably comes down to the cost of having a small subfleet. Probably won't be too much more since the 778 isn't that different than the 779 though.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
justloveplanes
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:20 pm

jagraham wrote:
The 778 is better than the 77W at anything the 77W does except for ULD positions.
The mentality is causing the 778 to get off to a slow start, but in the end the 778 will be fine.
As far as EK, they still have their 10 77Ls according to Airfleets. And there is a reason for that. The 778 will replace those 77Ls when the time comes. As well as a fair bit of the 77W flying.
Between the A380s and the 777s, EK has 255 aircraft in the largest sizes. Even if the A359s were dedicated to 77W flying, (the A339s will do different things, as will some of the A359s in the end), the numbers of 779s, 778s, and A359s being discussed represents a reduction. But it will take 20 years for complete turnover.


Good points, however, the 778 is now benchmarked against the A35K, not the 77W.
 
jagraham
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:58 pm

justloveplanes wrote:
jagraham wrote:
The 778 is better than the 77W at anything the 77W does except for ULD positions.
The mentality is causing the 778 to get off to a slow start, but in the end the 778 will be fine.
As far as EK, they still have their 10 77Ls according to Airfleets. And there is a reason for that. The 778 will replace those 77Ls when the time comes. As well as a fair bit of the 77W flying.
Between the A380s and the 777s, EK has 255 aircraft in the largest sizes. Even if the A359s were dedicated to 77W flying, (the A339s will do different things, as will some of the A359s in the end), the numbers of 779s, 778s, and A359s being discussed represents a reduction. But it will take 20 years for complete turnover.


Good points, however, the 778 is now benchmarked against the A35K, not the 77W.


The A35K is a great plane (maybe too great; new charts have come out and they suggest that the A35K has equal trip fuel to an A359 despite the A35K being heavier and having higher thrust engines of the same technology (and not even a fan size increase) but that's for another thread - in TechOps probably) and will get its share of sales. My point regarding the 778 is that it is a better 77W and on a CASM basis or a trip basis the 778 will be superior to the 7W. The ULR capability will be a benefit (with the fuel increase to 52300 gallons I believe the 778 can do Project Sunrise without further modification, and with 300 seats). Unlike most A350 fanboys, it looks to me like the 778 will be a couple of percent better on trip costs for trips over 4 hours, at least until the Ultrafan comes to the A350. And the A35K gets there with low weight; higher weight variants of A35K will come closer to 778 payload range, but will lose in fuel efficiency as they do so.
 
DCA350
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:03 pm

jagraham wrote:
justloveplanes wrote:
jagraham wrote:
The 778 is better than the 77W at anything the 77W does except for ULD positions.
The mentality is causing the 778 to get off to a slow start, but in the end the 778 will be fine.
As far as EK, they still have their 10 77Ls according to Airfleets. And there is a reason for that. The 778 will replace those 77Ls when the time comes. As well as a fair bit of the 77W flying.
Between the A380s and the 777s, EK has 255 aircraft in the largest sizes. Even if the A359s were dedicated to 77W flying, (the A339s will do different things, as will some of the A359s in the end), the numbers of 779s, 778s, and A359s being discussed represents a reduction. But it will take 20 years for complete turnover.


Good points, however, the 778 is now benchmarked against the A35K, not the 77W.


The A35K is a great plane (maybe too great; new charts have come out and they suggest that the A35K has equal trip fuel to an A359 despite the A35K being heavier and having higher thrust engines of the same technology (and not even a fan size increase) but that's for another thread - in TechOps probably) and will get its share of sales. My point regarding the 778 is that it is a better 77W and on a CASM basis or a trip basis the 778 will be superior to the 7W. The ULR capability will be a benefit (with the fuel increase to 52300 gallons I believe the 778 can do Project Sunrise without further modification, and with 300 seats). Unlike most A350 fanboys, it looks to me like the 778 will be a couple of percent better on trip costs for trips over 4 hours, at least until the Ultrafan comes to the A350. And the A35K gets there with low weight; higher weight variants of A35K will come closer to 778 payload range, but will lose in fuel efficiency as they do so.


You must mean CASM, no way will a 778 ever beat the A35K on trip cost. It's MTOW is 30+ Tons heavier. 778 would be flying off the shelves if airlines believed this. More capable and more efficient rarely happens in aircraft of the same generation, there is always a trade off..
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:40 pm

So many people are so anxious for a direct replacement of an aircraft that is the worst economic failure of a major airframe OEM in most of our lifetimes. Hint: there won't be one.

The best solution for current A380 operators:
- in extremely high-yielding AND slot-restricted markets, continue using A380s until maintenance costs become prohibitive;
- in non-slot-restricted but high-yielding markets, increase frequency;
- in low-yielding markets that are marginal on the A380, which describes a significant number of routes the A380 is currently flying for Emirates... reduce capacity to boost yield!

Scenario 3) is perfect for the existing 779. Scenario 2) may call for 787, A350, or 777X depending on exactly what capacity is needed. EK has only a few markets (LHR foremost among them) that fit in scenario 1), and the A380 will be able to serve those markets for at least another decade.

I'll believe the 777-10X when I see it, because I think in its absence the same customers who would buy it will have no option but to buy the same number of 777-9 frames. Of course this equation will change if and when Airbus delivers an Ultrafan A350, especially if the Ultrafan allows a further stretch.
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:30 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
You look at the way Boeing and Airbus now use a LOT of subcontracting for parts and components - this would have been unthinkable 30 years ago but its how major programmes are done now. So if Boeing can work with Shorts, Spirit, GE, Zodiac, Mitsubishi, Embraer, Honeywell, Leonardo and Northrop-Grumman why cant they work with Airbus?

They could but why would either of them want to build a new niche plane with a market of less than 300?
They would never recoup development costs.
In spite of what many here think, they're in business to make money, not to build cool toys to thrill av-geeks.
 
sabby
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:46 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
I believe that 11-abreast is the limit with 2 aisles.

A clean sheet, 80m long twin with 80m folding wings, 11-abreast Y, 9-abreast W and something like UA Polaris J may be quite compelling. I can imagine a configuration like this: 432 (64J45W323Y)

I remember that the rule was a passenger can be at max 2 seats away from an isle. So 3-6-3 still doesn't violate that. Not that I'd ever like to board such aircraft.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:13 pm

morrisond wrote:
I don't think pushing the 777 past 80 M will be as hard as people think.


It isn't getting an 80+ meter aircraft to fly that is the problem. It is finding an airport that can accept it. An 80+ meter aircraft will require new gates and taxiways. The 80x80 meter dimension is the biggest currently available.
 
Absynth
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:28 pm

morrisond wrote:

A 777X 85M based Twin with 360T MTOW would negate the need for a 11 or 12W clean sheet and the 777X would start to make a lot more sense to me.

I always thought they were kind of crazy not to do an Ovalish Carbon 11W Barrel 777 replacement based on the 787 - however at 85M the 777x could be a very different story.


At the time of 777X development the A380 was still alive and the ULA of choice for Emirates, so turning it into a much larger 11ab 777 didn't make much sense back then.

I think it was kind of crazy of Airbus to develop that twin story monstrosity of an airplane instead of a much more efficient, smaller yet longer ~80m 11ab for around 500/450 pax 2/3 class. If Airbus were a bit less set on having the largest w**ner, and a bit more focussed on economics, sales would have dwarfed that what we ended up with. The waisted space on the A380 isnt so much caused by the staircase as much as the inefficient spacing of all the facilities with horrible aerodynamics to top it off.
 
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keesje
Posts: 13016
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:01 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I am of the view that whatever replaces the A388 will need to be bigger than a 779X but weigh a lot less and be substantially cheaper to operate than the A388. I do think the 777 has probably come to the end of its design potential now with the 8/9X and there is fairly limited scope for growth and efficiency gains at this point much past the 779X.

It will need to be a massive twin but as St Tim notes, will need to fit in the 80m "box" and will need folding wings like the 779X to accomplish this. Pavement loading will need to be at a level that requires no airport modifications. It will need to offer circa 20% more floorspace than a 779X but also be a cargo monster, unlike the A388. Fuel burn will need to be so compelling that it forces the market to take a risk on it vs the safer bet of A35J and 779X. It will need to be capable of doing ULH missions if necessary, so DXB-LAX, LHR-PER, SIN-LAX, DXB-AKL etc.

Its a pretty tall order. Can the 777 be stretched and reengined (?) to get to this level and still have the compelling economics requiring the airlines to jump on?

I don't know. I will say I don't think the A350 can likely be stretched for the same reason to this monster scale. I'm not convinced it will make sense. You start running into efficiency limitations when you lengthen a tube that much, and ground clearance/tailstrike/flare behaviour cannot fully be ironed out with the computers.

I wonder if there will be a clean sheet design or whether the sheer cost of such an adventure will not just scupper the plane from the beginning? Market is the likes of SQ, EK, KE, LH, BA, AF, TG, CX, MU, CA, CZ and their ilk. Unlikely to be more than 300 frames. EK will likely be the biggest operator and may account for as many as a third of all the frames ordered. It is a niche plane but that is the niche they work in. It would be a massively compelling value proposition for them.

How does it look? I'm thinking 12 abreast composite tube, open architecture, Ultrafan twin, same cockpit as A350 or 787, full commonality...

Call me a hopeless romantic idealist but i wonder if there is scope for Airbus and Boeing (or COMAC? Or even Emirates?) to collaborate on such a design and bring it to market? With the understanding that competition on such niche aircraft programmes makes it a near-impossible value proposition for shareholders, so without collaboration it will never be built because the outlay is so huge and the profits so tiny that nobody sees the value in it. So the hyper-competitive market landscape means that we are condemned to fly round on small twins for the rest of our existence and true innovation is stymied as it is too expensive. I'm all for adding value for shareholders but once profits get in the way of pushing the envelope and really innovating then the pace of progress is slowed because it isnt making enough money.

I'm no socialist but it seems to be the only way to really attack this vast project is through working together if we want something truiy groundbreaking.

I'm sure many of our US members are laughing out loud at the idea of working with the enemy but i promise you folks, that day is probably coming and sooner than you think.


It has an APTU though..

https://youtu.be/Ln7UIN5NlCc
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1388
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:25 pm

Great post!
The A380 looked OK at first, but the 77W charged ahead, I assume because it was more profitable to fly.

If EK keeps its planes 12 years, they will still have a couple dozen or more to handle LHR and similar restricted markets. IF parts do not get crazy hard/$$$ there may be 50 still flying in 15 years. It could be worse.

So 1) is the 380's, but evolving to 779's
So 2) is lots of 77W, 787's, 330's, and 350's.
So 3) is 779 and 787-10 if shorter range.

seabosdca wrote:
So many people are so anxious for a direct replacement of an aircraft that is the worst economic failure of a major airframe OEM in most of our lifetimes. Hint: there won't be one.

The best solution for current A380 operators:
- in extremely high-yielding AND slot-restricted markets, continue using A380s until maintenance costs become prohibitive;
- in non-slot-restricted but high-yielding markets, increase frequency;
- in low-yielding markets that are marginal on the A380, which describes a significant number of routes the A380 is currently flying for Emirates... reduce capacity to boost yield!

Scenario 3) is perfect for the existing 779. Scenario 2) may call for 787, A350, or 777X depending on exactly what capacity is needed. EK has only a few markets (LHR foremost among them) that fit in scenario 1), and the A380 will be able to serve those markets for at least another decade.

I'll believe the 777-10X when I see it, because I think in its absence the same customers who would buy it will have no option but to buy the same number of 777-9 frames. Of course this equation will change if and when Airbus delivers an Ultrafan A350, especially if the Ultrafan allows a further stretch.
 
CHRISBA35X
Posts: 74
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:40 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:24 am

9Patch wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
You look at the way Boeing and Airbus now use a LOT of subcontracting for parts and components - this would have been unthinkable 30 years ago but its how major programmes are done now. So if Boeing can work with Shorts, Spirit, GE, Zodiac, Mitsubishi, Embraer, Honeywell, Leonardo and Northrop-Grumman why cant they work with Airbus?

They could but why would either of them want to build a new niche plane with a market of less than 300?
They would never recoup development costs.
In spite of what many here think, they're in business to make money, not to build cool toys to thrill av-geeks.


Point taken on the money side (which was exactly what I was saying) but i disagree strongly with your indirect assertion that we will never, ever have a larger passenger transport aircraft than the 779X as its a "niche" and nobody will ever make money on it. With respect that is some serious short term thinking in my view.

The planet's population is growing exponentially, hubs are only going to become more restricted and the two most populous nations on Earth both have a burgeoning middle class that did not really exist when the A388 was the A3XX.

A VLA in this class may be a niche market *now" but it isnt coming now is it? If someone started development on one now we wouldnt see it before 2030 at the absolute earliest. Earth's population will be 8.5 billion by then. Equiavlent of adding another China in the interim. So yes the market economics and fragmentation mean it is a limited market segment now, by 2030 onwards that is unlikely to be the case.

The lead time on such mega projects means that you have to design what you think the market will require when youve sunk a decade or more into it. Airbus had the right idea but dropped the ball on a few key issues and took too long to bring the A380 to market.

Looking at their experiences and simply applying a blanket "the market doesnt support VLA's, its a dead niche" without understanding the inertia of the market is short sighted. What youre basically saying is that the market cannot support anything bigger than a 779X and to soak up growth in air traffic we can simply add frequencies using the US model ad infinitum. Obviously that works only when you have capacity to add frequencies. What happens when you run out of space? Consolidation will only help to a degree. Factor in the likely increases in the cost of operating airliners and eventually we're going to need something bigger. It has to happen.

Airbus screwed up the timing with the A380 - it was either seven years too early technologically, or seven years too late in terms of its market, the replacement cycle of the many many 747-400s it had roughly the same trip costs as. People have stated that the future is smaller aircraft but why do we then see the most successful iterations in the Airbus and Boeing narrowbody range, the A330, 777, 787, A350 etc being the larger versions and popularity of the smaller versions dying out over time.

Anyway - in Emirates' case they are not thinking 2020 they are thinking 2030 onwards. The last of their A380s will be gone by then and a 779X is smaller so in certain cases where they have multiple A380 departures to certain places (ie: SIN, JFK, LHR, LGW, MAN, SYD, MEL, CDG and a load of others) they will need to add frequencies to maintain market share. How many of these airports have slots available to do that? How many will have spare slots in 2030?

Of course the 850lb gorilla in the room is what sort of shape Dubai, the middle east and by association EK will be in come 2030. I lived there for 6 years until Feb this year and have serious doubts. But thats for another thread.

To summarise - i think it is accurate to state the VLA market right now as of 2019 is too small to support a VLA larger than the 779X if you brought it to market right now. But the lead time on these things means that if you designed one now it would hit the market 2030 onwards and it is clear that the niche will be substantially larger at that point. So to write off the segment in 2030 and beyond based on your view of the market today is myopic. Just because the A380 wasnt "it" doesnt mean there is no market for "it".
 
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keesje
Posts: 13016
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:56 am

Firm orders for Boeing 777X

Lufthansa.........................20
Etihad Airways.................25
Cathay Pacific..................21
Emirates.........................150
Qatar Airways..................60
All Nippon Airways...........20
Unidentified customer......10
Singapore Airlines...........20
British Airways.................18

777-8: 53
777-9: 291
Total: 344

Emirates, Qatar and Etihad have 68% of the 777x orders. Like we saw on the A380, a single or few carriers can make or break a program.
Emirates is re-negotiating their order, Etihad is struggling for survival and Qatar is the biggest A350 customer.

All 777x customers except ANA have A350(-1000) backlogs too.I think Emirates has a pretty strong negotiating position with Boeing.
Boeing themselves is reconsidering the need & time-table for the -8. I would expect AF, AA, UA to order the 777X eventually.
The 77W also had a slow start, but this was during the 9-1 aftermath. I think the A380 end of production will help the 777x program.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mig17
Posts: 211
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:34 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:31 am

CHRISBA35X wrote:
9Patch wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
You look at the way Boeing and Airbus now use a LOT of subcontracting for parts and components - this would have been unthinkable 30 years ago but its how major programmes are done now. So if Boeing can work with Shorts, Spirit, GE, Zodiac, Mitsubishi, Embraer, Honeywell, Leonardo and Northrop-Grumman why cant they work with Airbus?

They could but why would either of them want to build a new niche plane with a market of less than 300?
They would never recoup development costs.
In spite of what many here think, they're in business to make money, not to build cool toys to thrill av-geeks.


Point taken on the money side (which was exactly what I was saying) but i disagree strongly with your indirect assertion that we will never, ever have a larger passenger transport aircraft than the 779X as its a "niche" and nobody will ever make money on it. With respect that is some serious short term thinking in my view.
...
To summarise - i think it is accurate to state the VLA market right now as of 2019 is too small to support a VLA larger than the 779X if you brought it to market right now. But the lead time on these things means that if you designed one now it would hit the market 2030 onwards and it is clear that the niche will be substantially larger at that point. So to write off the segment in 2030 and beyond based on your view of the market today is myopic. Just because the A380 wasnt "it" doesnt mean there is no market for "it".


Not that I disagree on the potential need of larger aircraft than the 9X, and It is more than a "niche" but it seem there is an economical problem with current VLA.
In the past VLA like the 747 were also the more capable aircraft range-wise and the "excess" capacity was used to bring down cost per seat and increase market shares. Now that "smaller" widebodies have even more range than the larger VLA, we also see that the cost per seat advantage of VLA isn't significant anymore therefore the market favors revenue per seat to unsure yields and frequency to keep or increase market shares. That is what killed A380 and even the 777-9X doesn't look in great shape because it is positioned between more "economics" A350/787 and this VLA syndrome. The 777-8X is almost shelved now and Boeing is trying to push a 777-10X, per say they proposed it to BA but they rejected it and ordered the 9X. Emirates case is similar to BA in some ways, they need big aircraft, but if BA rejected a 10X, why would Emirates wants it?

A future VLA will need to be really really more economical per seat than smaller planes to break into the market.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:41 am

keesje wrote:
I would expect AF, AA, UA to order the 777X eventually.

I would add KE to that list. At some point in time they will have to replace their A380's (and their B748i's), see next point.

keesje wrote:
I think the A380 end of production will help the 777x program.

That's for sure. Freely adapted from Airbus' slogan...

Image

... I would say "it takes an 777-9 to replace an A380". From my office window I see at least one VLA every hour starting or landing from/at FRA. And I am sure they are not empty, half-empty or whatsoever. Otherwise the airlines would simply send smaller widebodies. Due to slot contraints and night curfews I cannot think of anything else than the B777-9 to replace these VLAs in the coming years.

CHRISBA35X wrote:
Of course the 850lb gorilla in the room is what sort of shape Dubai, the middle east and by association EK will be in come 2030. I lived there for 6 years until Feb this year and have serious doubts. But thats for another thread.
What a pity. I would have loved to learn more about that. But even in case EK’s time will come to end – similar like Pan Am’s time came to an end – or let’s say they will have to downsize, the remaining airlines will be glad to take over EK’s market share (again). So the (admittedly limited) demand for VLAs would go back to traditional airlines and maybe “new kids on the block” from China.
 
9Patch
Posts: 309
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:43 am

CHRISBA35X wrote:
9Patch wrote:
They could but why would either of them want to build a new niche plane with a market of less than 300?
They would never recoup development costs.
In spite of what many here think, they're in business to make money, not to build cool toys to thrill av-geeks.

Point taken on the money side (which was exactly what I was saying) but i disagree strongly with your indirect assertion that we will never, ever have a larger passenger transport aircraft than the 779X as its a "niche" and nobody will ever make money on it. With respect that is some serious short term thinking in my view.

The planet's population is growing exponentially, hubs are only going to become more restricted and the two most populous nations on Earth both have a burgeoning middle class that did not really exist when the A388 was the A3XX.

A VLA in this class may be a niche market *now" but it isnt coming now is it? If someone started development on one now we wouldnt see it before 2030 at the absolute earliest. Earth's population will be 8.5 billion by then. Equiavlent of adding another China in the interim. So yes the market economics and fragmentation mean it is a limited market segment now, by 2030 onwards that is unlikely to be the case.

I never made such an assertion, directly or indirectly.
You're the one who called it a "niche airplane," "unlikely to be more than 300 frames," in Post #310:

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I wonder if there will be a clean sheet design or whether the sheer cost of such an adventure will not just scupper the plane from the beginning? Market is the likes of SQ, EK, KE, LH, BA, AF, TG, CX, MU, CA, CZ and their ilk. Unlikely to be more than 300 frames. EK will likely be the biggest operator and may account for as many as a third of all the frames ordered. It is a niche plane but that is the niche they work in. It would be a massively compelling value proposition for them.

Now you seem to be contradicting yourself.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
Posts: 205
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Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:02 am

keesje wrote:
Firm orders for Boeing 777X

Lufthansa.........................20
Etihad Airways.................25
Cathay Pacific..................21
Emirates.........................150
Qatar Airways..................60
All Nippon Airways...........20
Unidentified customer......10
Singapore Airlines...........20
British Airways.................18

777-8: 53
777-9: 291
Total: 344

Emirates, Qatar and Etihad have 68% of the 777x orders. Like we saw on the A380, a single or few carriers can make or break a program.
Emirates is re-negotiating their order, Etihad is struggling for survival and Qatar is the biggest A350 customer.

All 777x customers except ANA have A350(-1000) backlogs too.I think Emirates has a pretty strong negotiating position with Boeing.
Boeing themselves is reconsidering the need & time-table for the -8. I would expect AF, AA, UA to order the 777X eventually.
The 77W also had a slow start, but this was during the 9-1 aftermath. I think the A380 end of production will help the 777x program.


Let's be fair keejse and state facts as they are right now.

And right now, Emirates has NO firm orders for any variance of the The a350 family of jets.Singapore, all Nippon, Lufthansa, none have the 1000 either. Doesn't matter that they can convert orders in the LH+Sq case.

Etihhahds five planned 1000s may not last long either. They are taking such a small number and I wonder whether it's even worth it.

Of the 9 77x customers, only four have the 1000. What more surprising is that early 1000 customers opted for 77X. Not more 1000s. Like Qattar Cathy, BA.

Lots of way to skew things keesjhe. You should be objective my friend :-)
 
smartplane
Posts: 1024
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:53 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
keesje wrote:
Firm orders for Boeing 777X

Lufthansa.........................20
Etihad Airways.................25
Cathay Pacific..................21
Emirates.........................150
Qatar Airways..................60
All Nippon Airways...........20
Unidentified customer......10
Singapore Airlines...........20
British Airways.................18

777-8: 53
777-9: 291
Total: 344

Emirates, Qatar and Etihad have 68% of the 777x orders. Like we saw on the A380, a single or few carriers can make or break a program.
Emirates is re-negotiating their order, Etihad is struggling for survival and Qatar is the biggest A350 customer.

All 777x customers except ANA have A350(-1000) backlogs too.I think Emirates has a pretty strong negotiating position with Boeing.
Boeing themselves is reconsidering the need & time-table for the -8. I would expect AF, AA, UA to order the 777X eventually.
The 77W also had a slow start, but this was during the 9-1 aftermath. I think the A380 end of production will help the 777x program.


Let's be fair keejse and state facts as they are right now.

And right now, Emirates has NO firm orders for any variance of the The a350 family of jets.Singapore, all Nippon, Lufthansa, none have the 1000 either. Doesn't matter that they can convert orders in the LH+Sq case.

Etihhahds five planned 1000s may not last long either. They are taking such a small number and I wonder whether it's even worth it.

Of the 9 77x customers, only four have the 1000. What more surprising is that early 1000 customers opted for 77X. Not more 1000s. Like Qattar Cathy, BA.

Lots of way to skew things keesjhe. You should be objective my friend :-)

To be really pedantic, what are described above as 'orders', actually consist of tranches of unconditional and conditional orders. The reality, is that at this very moment, fewer than 100 would be unconditional, and even some of those will be qualified based on achieving delivery dates and/or performance guarantees.

As early unconditional tranches are delivered, so later, currently conditional tranches, all being well, will become unconditional.

For example, one very common condition is 'obtaining finance on terms acceptable to the buyer', very easy to use as an exit clause by a buyer with changed circumstances or holding a better offer.

A & B hold minimal deposits for conditional orders. Although the contract may say otherwise, if EK cancels a conditional order, while they might not get a refund, they will definitely receive a 100% credit, which can be used for milestone payments on remaining unconditional orders.

EK needs the 777X. But EK also suspects / knows GE didn't encourage / actively discouraged EA from offering an engine choice for their final A380 order, and that Boeing may have had influence. As the dominant customer 777X customer, the opportunity to extract better terms while others dither, will not be missed.

With future EK/FZ centralised aircraft purchasing, Boeing will also be aware MAX sales to FZ are also part of the 777X/787 equation.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13016
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:56 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
keesje wrote:
Firm orders for Boeing 777X

Lufthansa.........................20
Etihad Airways.................25
Cathay Pacific..................21
Emirates.........................150
Qatar Airways..................60
All Nippon Airways...........20
Unidentified customer......10
Singapore Airlines...........20
British Airways.................18

777-8: 53
777-9: 291
Total: 344

Emirates, Qatar and Etihad have 68% of the 777x orders. Like we saw on the A380, a single or few carriers can make or break a program.
Emirates is re-negotiating their order, Etihad is struggling for survival and Qatar is the biggest A350 customer.

All 777x customers except ANA have A350(-1000) backlogs too.I think Emirates has a pretty strong negotiating position with Boeing.
Boeing themselves is reconsidering the need & time-table for the -8. I would expect AF, AA, UA to order the 777X eventually.
The 77W also had a slow start, but this was during the 9-1 aftermath. I think the A380 end of production will help the 777x program.


Let's be fair keejse and state facts as they are right now.

And right now, Emirates has NO firm orders for any variance of the The a350 family of jets.Singapore, all Nippon, Lufthansa, none have the 1000 either. Doesn't matter that they can convert orders in the LH+Sq case.

Etihhahds five planned 1000s may not last long either. They are taking such a small number and I wonder whether it's even worth it.

Of the 9 77x customers, only four have the 1000. What more surprising is that early 1000 customers opted for 77X. Not more 1000s. Like Qattar Cathy, BA.

Lots of way to skew things keesjhe. You should be objective my friend :-)


Yes, maybe I was optimistic on Etihad. It appears it's 6 now. https://samchui.com/2019/02/16/etihad-adjusts-airbus-and-boeing-aircraft-order/#.XR3oCugzbcs

And right now, Emirates has NO firm orders for any variance of the The a350 family of jets.

? is it only an LOI? Then Airbus should change its wording..

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2019/02/airbus-and-emirates-reach-agreement-on-a380-fleet--sign-new-widebody-orders.html
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
CHRISBA35X
Posts: 74
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:40 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:07 pm

9Patch wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
9Patch wrote:
They could but why would either of them want to build a new niche plane with a market of less than 300?
They would never recoup development costs.
In spite of what many here think, they're in business to make money, not to build cool toys to thrill av-geeks.

Point taken on the money side (which was exactly what I was saying) but i disagree strongly with your indirect assertion that we will never, ever have a larger passenger transport aircraft than the 779X as its a "niche" and nobody will ever make money on it. With respect that is some serious short term thinking in my view.

The planet's population is growing exponentially, hubs are only going to become more restricted and the two most populous nations on Earth both have a burgeoning middle class that did not really exist when the A388 was the A3XX.

A VLA in this class may be a niche market *now" but it isnt coming now is it? If someone started development on one now we wouldnt see it before 2030 at the absolute earliest. Earth's population will be 8.5 billion by then. Equiavlent of adding another China in the interim. So yes the market economics and fragmentation mean it is a limited market segment now, by 2030 onwards that is unlikely to be the case.

I never made such an assertion, directly or indirectly.
You're the one who called it a "niche airplane," "unlikely to be more than 300 frames," in Post #310:

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I wonder if there will be a clean sheet design or whether the sheer cost of such an adventure will not just scupper the plane from the beginning? Market is the likes of SQ, EK, KE, LH, BA, AF, TG, CX, MU, CA, CZ and their ilk. Unlikely to be more than 300 frames. EK will likely be the biggest operator and may account for as many as a third of all the frames ordered. It is a niche plane but that is the niche they work in. It would be a massively compelling value proposition for them.

Now you seem to be contradicting yourself.



Market - *is* - there is a niche now. An A380-sized niche. If Boeing launched a 777-10X today, that is the niche it would be going after.

My assertions on the niche getting bigger by 2030 onwards do not contradict this, although i agree it was poorly worded.

To be clear - we are talking about the size of the niche as it directly relates to how any future offering may acutally generate any ROI on its R&D spend. If/when the niche grows to, say 500 frames, then what? Wont happen short or med term - this is a long term outlook, as i say, 2030 onwards.
 
User avatar
FrenchPotatoEye
Posts: 205
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:20 pm

Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:59 pm

keesje wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
keesje wrote:
Firm orders for Boeing 777X

Lufthansa.........................20
Etihad Airways.................25
Cathay Pacific..................21
Emirates.........................150
Qatar Airways..................60
All Nippon Airways...........20
Unidentified customer......10
Singapore Airlines...........20
British Airways.................18

777-8: 53
777-9: 291
Total: 344

Emirates, Qatar and Etihad have 68% of the 777x orders. Like we saw on the A380, a single or few carriers can make or break a program.
Emirates is re-negotiating their order, Etihad is struggling for survival and Qatar is the biggest A350 customer.

All 777x customers except ANA have A350(-1000) backlogs too.I think Emirates has a pretty strong negotiating position with Boeing.
Boeing themselves is reconsidering the need & time-table for the -8. I would expect AF, AA, UA to order the 777X eventually.
The 77W also had a slow start, but this was during the 9-1 aftermath. I think the A380 end of production will help the 777x program.


Let's be fair keejse and state facts as they are right now.

And right now, Emirates has NO firm orders for any variance of the The a350 family of jets.Singapore, all Nippon, Lufthansa, none have the 1000 either. Doesn't matter that they can convert orders in the LH+Sq case.

Etihhahds five planned 1000s may not last long either. They are taking such a small number and I wonder whether it's even worth it.

Of the 9 77x customers, only four have the 1000. What more surprising is that early 1000 customers opted for 77X. Not more 1000s. Like Qattar Cathy, BA.

Lots of way to skew things keesjhe. You should be objective my friend :-)


Yes, maybe I was optimistic on Etihad. It appears it's 6 now. https://samchui.com/2019/02/16/etihad-adjusts-airbus-and-boeing-aircraft-order/#.XR3oCugzbcs

And right now, Emirates has NO firm orders for any variance of the The a350 family of jets.

? is it only an LOI? Then Airbus should change its wording..

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2019/02/airbus-and-emirates-reach-agreement-on-a380-fleet--sign-new-widebody-orders.html


C'mon keesje - the Emirates A350 deal is not firm and in Airbus' backlog. Yet.

Is there a Boeing or etubhad release noting the 777X reductions? I haven't found one despite searching. Wonder what gives?? The airline was quick to cancel 350, perhaps too quick....but I can't see some official statement on the 77x.
 
musman9853
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Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:36 pm

keesje wrote:
. I would expect AF, AA, UA to order the 777.

Honestly doubt AA will buy the 777x. They're going all in on the 787, and there really aren't many routes in aa's network that a 78J can't handle
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
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keesje
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Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:42 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
keesje wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

Let's be fair keejse and state facts as they are right now.

And right now, Emirates has NO firm orders for any variance of the The a350 family of jets.Singapore, all Nippon, Lufthansa, none have the 1000 either. Doesn't matter that they can convert orders in the LH+Sq case.

Etihhahds five planned 1000s may not last long either. They are taking such a small number and I wonder whether it's even worth it.

Of the 9 77x customers, only four have the 1000. What more surprising is that early 1000 customers opted for 77X. Not more 1000s. Like Qattar Cathy, BA.

Lots of way to skew things keesjhe. You should be objective my friend :-)


Yes, maybe I was optimistic on Etihad. It appears it's 6 now. https://samchui.com/2019/02/16/etihad-adjusts-airbus-and-boeing-aircraft-order/#.XR3oCugzbcs

And right now, Emirates has NO firm orders for any variance of the The a350 family of jets.

? is it only an LOI? Then Airbus should change its wording..

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2019/02/airbus-and-emirates-reach-agreement-on-a380-fleet--sign-new-widebody-orders.html


C'mon keesje - the Emirates A350 deal is not firm and in Airbus' backlog. Yet.

Is there a Boeing or etubhad release noting the 777X reductions? I haven't found one despite searching. Wonder what gives?? The airline was quick to cancel 350, perhaps too quick....but I can't see some official statement on the 77x.


Does the Boeing orders & deliveries tool work for you? https://www.boeing.com/company/about-bca/#/orders-deliveries it stalls for me using different browsers..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
justloveplanes
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Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:03 pm

smartplane wrote:

EK needs the 777X. But EK also suspects / knows GE didn't encourage / actively discouraged EA from offering an engine choice for their final A380 order, and that Boeing may have had influence. As the dominant customer 777X customer, the opportunity to extract better terms while others dither, will not be missed.

With future EK/FZ centralised aircraft purchasing, Boeing will also be aware MAX sales to FZ are also part of the 777X/787 equation.


I tend to think Boeing has more behind Emirates LOI than customary. It is a massive order and Emirates have always played the long game. They will maintain their general understanding with Boeing on such an important order. STC was clear about the general scope of the order not changing. Adjustments are fine, and the 380 draw down is a fact, but I don't expect a massive change.

So much of this program is still unknown on aero and engine. I don't know about weight.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:12 pm

The amazing growth of EK was not the number of planes it bought, it was the number of airports it served. As we argued Hub versus P2P, EK pursued 1Stop. That success has some limits as other Airlines have learned to compete. AND the 787/350 have captured a lot of those 1Stops by offering P2P. However there are network advantages to EKs strategy, and as they get ever more efficient and appropriately sized planes they will continue to be a big and major flier. I don't think they need the largest of planes to be successful. RASM tends to be higher on smaller planes.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
jagraham
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:19 pm

DCA350 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
justloveplanes wrote:

Good points, however, the 778 is now benchmarked against the A35K, not the 77W.


The A35K is a great plane (maybe too great; new charts have come out and they suggest that the A35K has equal trip fuel to an A359 despite the A35K being heavier and having higher thrust engines of the same technology (and not even a fan size increase) but that's for another thread - in TechOps probably) and will get its share of sales. My point regarding the 778 is that it is a better 77W and on a CASM basis or a trip basis the 778 will be superior to the 7W. The ULR capability will be a benefit (with the fuel increase to 52300 gallons I believe the 778 can do Project Sunrise without further modification, and with 300 seats). Unlike most A350 fanboys, it looks to me like the 778 will be a couple of percent better on trip costs for trips over 4 hours, at least until the Ultrafan comes to the A350. And the A35K gets there with low weight; higher weight variants of A35K will come closer to 778 payload range, but will lose in fuel efficiency as they do so.


You must mean CASM, no way will a 778 ever beat the A35K on trip cost. It's MTOW is 30+ Tons heavier. 778 would be flying off the shelves if airlines believed this. More capable and more efficient rarely happens in aircraft of the same generation, there is always a trade off..


I mean trip costs. For the same payload. The GE9x engine is a generation newer and promises 5% more fuel efficiency than the Trent XWB. And the 778 is not the one which weighs 181t empty (that's the 779); it should come in between 158t and 162t. IN comparison, the A35K OEW is about 155t. Not much difference at all.

Besides, CASM wise, the planes carry about the same number of passengers (366 for A35K vs 365 for 778). So if the 778 is to beat the A35K in CASM it must beat the A35K in trip fuel too.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:32 pm

I am unclear why everyone seems to anticipate a smaller 779 order.

When EK was expecting to keep receiving A380s, they ordered 150x 778/9s to replace 77W/Ls. Now they are to stop receiving A380s, should they not need more 779s rather than fewer?

I agree the 778 may no longer be needed with A350s coming.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:37 pm

N14AZ wrote:
... I would say "it takes an 777-9 to replace an A380". From my office window I see at least one VLA every hour starting or landing from/at FRA. And I am sure they are not empty, half-empty or whatsoever. Otherwise the airlines would simply send smaller widebodies.


Meh. The carriers that own or lease 380s have to fly them somewhere - the least-bad routes. Or they park them if they can't even cover the variable operating cost.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:59 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
... I would say "it takes an 777-9 to replace an A380". From my office window I see at least one VLA every hour starting or landing from/at FRA. And I am sure they are not empty, half-empty or whatsoever. Otherwise the airlines would simply send smaller widebodies.


Meh. The carriers that own or lease 380s have to fly them somewhere - the least-bad routes. Or they park them if they can't even cover the variable operating cost.

True, and that’s exactly what LH is doing in the winter time close to Christmas. They park them instead of loosing money by flying them half empty or even worse.

So you think airliners such as SQ and so on fly them to FRA because it’s the least-bad route? You cannot convince me, neither can I convince you.

If you would have said they just fly them to FRA to thrill a certain a.net member, whose office window offers a nice view of the final approach, well, that’s something I could believe... ;-)
 
justloveplanes
Posts: 985
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:28 pm

jagraham wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
jagraham wrote:

The A35K is a great plane (maybe too great; new charts have come out and they suggest that the A35K has equal trip fuel to an A359 despite the A35K being heavier and having higher thrust engines of the same technology (and not even a fan size increase) but that's for another thread - in TechOps probably) and will get its share of sales. My point regarding the 778 is that it is a better 77W and on a CASM basis or a trip basis the 778 will be superior to the 7W. The ULR capability will be a benefit (with the fuel increase to 52300 gallons I believe the 778 can do Project Sunrise without further modification, and with 300 seats). Unlike most A350 fanboys, it looks to me like the 778 will be a couple of percent better on trip costs for trips over 4 hours, at least until the Ultrafan comes to the A350. And the A35K gets there with low weight; higher weight variants of A35K will come closer to 778 payload range, but will lose in fuel efficiency as they do so.


You must mean CASM, no way will a 778 ever beat the A35K on trip cost. It's MTOW is 30+ Tons heavier. 778 would be flying off the shelves if airlines believed this. More capable and more efficient rarely happens in aircraft of the same generation, there is always a trade off..


I mean trip costs. For the same payload. The GE9x engine is a generation newer and promises 5% more fuel efficiency than the Trent XWB. And the 778 is not the one which weighs 181t empty (that's the 779); it should come in between 158t and 162t. IN comparison, the A35K OEW is about 155t. Not much difference at all.

Besides, CASM wise, the planes carry about the same number of passengers (366 for A35K vs 365 for 778). So if the 778 is to beat the A35K in CASM it must beat the A35K in trip fuel too.


Is the 778 365 count at 9 abreast or 10 abreast? With your figures above OEW/passenger give the A35K a 4% edge, which is in large part accounted for by the newer but heavier engines.
 
Mrakula
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:45 pm

778 OEW estimation is around 167 t and A35k is around 150t! On a photo from CX A35k there is label with OEW 148 900kg on the pedestal.

Cheers
 
9Patch
Posts: 309
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:49 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
Market - *is* - there is a niche now. An A380-sized niche. If Boeing launched a 777-10X today, that is the niche it would be going after.

My assertions on the niche getting bigger by 2030 onwards do not contradict this, although i agree it was poorly worded.

To be clear - we are talking about the size of the niche as it directly relates to how any future offering may acutally generate any ROI on its R&D spend. If/when the niche grows to, say 500 frames, then what? Wont happen short or med term - this is a long term outlook, as i say, 2030 onwards.


The only thing that's clear is you changed the size of the niche from 300 frames to 500.
 
Fatbus
Posts: 32
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:12 pm

Don't forget EK plan to operate the 380 well into 2030's, it's not going away any time soon . I believe the 350's are firm. 150-77x firm? Latest is the 339 will arrive before 77x. 339 doing FZ routes ? Never heard that one . Gotta love the self proclaimed experts .
 
jagraham
Posts: 862
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:16 pm

justloveplanes wrote:
jagraham wrote:
DCA350 wrote:

You must mean CASM, no way will a 778 ever beat the A35K on trip cost. It's MTOW is 30+ Tons heavier. 778 would be flying off the shelves if airlines believed this. More capable and more efficient rarely happens in aircraft of the same generation, there is always a trade off..


I mean trip costs. For the same payload. The GE9x engine is a generation newer and promises 5% more fuel efficiency than the Trent XWB. And the 778 is not the one which weighs 181t empty (that's the 779); it should come in between 158t and 162t. IN comparison, the A35K OEW is about 155t. Not much difference at all.

Besides, CASM wise, the planes carry about the same number of passengers (366 for A35K vs 365 for 778). So if the 778 is to beat the A35K in CASM it must beat the A35K in trip fuel too.


Is the 778 365 count at 9 abreast or 10 abreast? With your figures above OEW/passenger give the A35K a 4% edge, which is in large part accounted for by the newer but heavier engines.


77X sides were resculpted to allow 10x 18" seats. Boeing's numbers assume 10 abreast Y.

As for QEW advantage to A35K, half of the 4% (about 5t) is due to engines; the Trent XWB is very heavy, but the GE9x is heavier. The other half should be due to more structure to carry the higher MTOW. Note that Airbus doesn't always give the OEW for new weight variants until much later.

We are about getting to the point where this discussion should move to TechOps
 
jagraham
Posts: 862
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:23 pm

Mrakula wrote:
778 OEW estimation is around 167 t and A35k is around 150t! On a photo from CX A35k there is label with OEW 148 900kg on the pedestal.

Cheers


The 77W OEW is 167.8t. The 778 is 5m shorter than the 77W. At 2.3t/m, the 778 will be at least 11t less than the 77W before wings (going to composites should save weight), and engines (10% less thrust but about 3t more weight for both).
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