Firm orders for Boeing 777X
All Nippon Airways...........20
It's a pretty good cross section of the world's blue chip airlines, all secured before first flight.
I'm not sure why we'd expect more.
The resemblance to another programme's order book here is uncanny - right before it got cancelled.
In the last 5 years the 777X has received 48 orders.
The other 294 came in a 19 month launch rush between the November 2013 launch and July 2014, very predominantly driven by an ME3 who are now turning to smaller more versatile frames in a way they haven't before..
I'm not going to joing the ranks of those saying the 777X is "old tech" - I think it will be a technological tour de force.
But I'm not seeing the health in the order book that you're seeing.
I'm seeing an order book that is very heavily dependent upon an ME3 that seem to be rapidly changing their strategy by piling into the even more technologically advanced, extremely capable, and far more versatile 787 and A350.
The conversations on this thread seem to be absolutely parallel to the ones we used to have on the A380, but with all the same players now sitting in opposite camps (including you, and including me).
"It's in a niche of 1 - there's no other place to go if you need the capacity"
"It could be stretched to a 777-10X to boost demand"
How did they work out last time around?
For me, the 777X finds itself in the uncomfortable place the A380 found itself in - that lonely spot as the largest, most expensive, least flexible airframe out there, undercut by smaller, more versatile modern airframes.
Unlike the A380 I think it's close enough to the other planes to survive in that hostile environment, but the last half decade example of 1 x 20 frame order every 2 years needs to change. Especially when a fair number of the ME3 orders seem to be at risk
And the 779 does fit into a niche, how big this is and - more important - will become, is not clear. Some political issues in the Middle East that goes south and a economic crisis can make or break the 779.
But it's future got brighter with the untimely demise of the A380.
It's the last man standing in the VLA passenger market.
If you need that kind of capacity, there is only one place to go.
Remind us how well that worked out last time around. On second thoughts, you actually did.