mig17
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:43 pm

morrisond wrote:
VV wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll:
...


Okay, it seems everybody but me here knows what Emirates' strategy is or will be.

Today they operate about 111 A380 and about 137 777.

So, what is their new strategy?


50-75 777-10
100-150 777-9
50-100 A359/A351


Boeing isn't going to built a 777-10 just for EK, A380 and 77W are not going to vanish soon and the + 100 A339 / 787 are also a lot of incomming capacity.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:27 pm

mig17 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
VV wrote:

Okay, it seems everybody but me here knows what Emirates' strategy is or will be.

Today they operate about 111 A380 and about 137 777.

So, what is their new strategy?


50-75 777-10
100-150 777-9
50-100 A359/A351


Boeing isn't going to built a 777-10 just for EK, A380 and 77W are not going to vanish soon and the + 100 A339 / 787 are also a lot of incomming capacity.


A 777-10 would not be just for EK. I'm sure they could find takers for another 2-300 over time - a lot more than -8's.

There will be a lot of A380's coming off lease about the time a -10 could be ready - call it 2023-2024. Some of -10's would replace what they were expecting to take in -9's.
 
VV
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:34 pm

morrisond wrote:
VV wrote:
...
Okay, it seems everybody but me here knows what Emirates' strategy is or will be.

Today they operate about 111 A380 and about 137 777.

So, what is their new strategy?


50-75 777-10
100-150 777-9
50-100 A359/A351


Is that a strategy? What's the 777-10 anyway?
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:48 pm

Boeing earns 3-4 times more per 787 air frame sold, compared to the X, and that will never change.

Champions within Boeing sold the X concept to the Board as a future freight platform, claiming it would excel once the A380, 748i and non-X versions of the 777 were no longer offered. Are they as bullish today?

But they were wearing blinkers in respect to the 787, perhaps because they were assured 787 capability would be managed (curtailed), to avoid stepping into X territory.

Where would Boeing be with a MAX replacement and a second (long distance) wing for the 787, if X development investment had instead been re-directed over the same period?

Now they have a similar quandry with the 787/777X as Airbus with the A330NEO/A350 and A320NEO/A330NEO. Do you restrict 787 and A330NEO sales by managing capability, even though per unit profitability is greater for the smaller aircraft, and enhancements are already in the bank, reducing overall group profit?

Or do you unleash the 787, A320NEO and A330NEO, harming 777X and A350 profitability even more, condemning both models to niche status or worse?

Can't be any love lost between the Boeing 787 and 777X teams. At least at Airbus, A330NEO and A350 has common ownership.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:04 pm

smartplane wrote:
Champions within Boeing sold the X concept to the Board as a future freight platform, claiming it would excel once the A380, 748i and non-X versions of the 777 were no longer offered. Are they as bullish today?


I would expect that the passenger model still drove the decision - doubly so when one considered that the 747-8 effectively became a "freighter only" platform that absorbed multiple write-downs due to that fact.


smartplane wrote:
But they were wearing blinkers in respect to the 787, perhaps because they were assured 787 capability would be managed (curtailed), to avoid stepping into X territory.


It seems pretty clear that the 787 program was constrained by the 777 - the focus was to engage the A330 as the 777 had already done so for the A340. And at the time, Airbus was signaling they would respond to the 787 with an improved A330 and that an improved A340 would be the response to the 777. If Airbus had responded first with the A350XWB, that might have changed the dynamics between the 777 and 787 teams.


smartplane wrote:
Where would Boeing be with a MAX replacement and a second (long distance) wing for the 787, if X development investment had instead been re-directed over the same period?


Well NSA (the "MAX replacement") was not going to happen because the market in 2010-2011 was unwilling to wait for it. And Boeing was not ready to offer a wing longer than 63 meters on the 787. And let's be honest - considering the average stage length of a 787 flight (~3000nm in 2017) a majority of operators may be benefitting more from the 1800kg of weight saved than the better cruise aerodynamics (which would have favored longer stage lengths).
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:26 am

smartplane wrote:
Boeing earns 3-4 times more per 787 air frame sold, compared to the X, and that will never change.

Champions within Boeing sold the X concept to the Board as a future freight platform, claiming it would excel once the A380, 748i and non-X versions of the 777 were no longer offered. Are they as bullish today?

But they were wearing blinkers in respect to the 787, perhaps because they were assured 787 capability would be managed (curtailed), to avoid stepping into X territory.

Where would Boeing be with a MAX replacement and a second (long distance) wing for the 787, if X development investment had instead been re-directed over the same period?

Now they have a similar quandry with the 787/777X as Airbus with the A330NEO/A350 and A320NEO/A330NEO. Do you restrict 787 and A330NEO sales by managing capability, even though per unit profitability is greater for the smaller aircraft, and enhancements are already in the bank, reducing overall group profit?

Or do you unleash the 787, A320NEO and A330NEO, harming 777X and A350 profitability even more, condemning both models to niche status or worse?

Can't be any love lost between the Boeing 787 and 777X teams. At least at Airbus, A330NEO and A350 has common ownership.


I think you are making stuff up. If the 777x was launched primarily as a platform for freight, they would not have widened the fuselage. The wider fuselage doesn’t help since container dimensions are standardized. The wider cabin only slightly improves the walkway space next to the containers.
 
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par13del
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:07 am

smartplane wrote:
Can't be any love lost between the Boeing 787 and 777X teams. At least at Airbus, A330NEO and A350 has common ownership.

Remind me again who owns the Boeing 787 versus the Boeing 777 that the teams would fight against each other because unlike Airbus, they do not have a common ownership?
 
grbauc
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:15 am

mig17 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Yes, the situation will not be the same, but the investment in 777X is not the same as 777.


Yes, the 779 is almost as expensive to buy than the A380 was ... That is an investment.

As for the list:
Lufthansa.........................20 => said they may have ordered too many
Etihad Airways.................25 => is in deep troubles and may not take any
Cathay Pacific..................21 => never took A380 and wanted a "VLA"
Emirates.........................150 => is "renegotiating" half of the total 777-X orderbook
Qatar Airways..................60 => as clearly overordered from both A & B
All Nippon Airways...........20 => all Boeing widebody fleet ...
Unidentified customer......10 => who? is it firm?
Singapore Airlines...........20 => wanted the largest aircraft possible
British Airways.................18 => wanted the largest aircraft possible

777-8: 53 => model may be axed soon
777-9: 291 => At the exception of Cathay and ANA (even if they have some now), all customers are A380 operators who seems to have anticipated the replacement cycle ... The numbers themselves look close to the repartition of the A380 orderbook in the past, one operator "owning" the program...

So maybe add Qantas an Korean Air to the list and you'll have all the airlines who will really replace their A380 with something "as" large. The other, AF, TG, MH, OZ and CZ do not need as big. So if the 777-X niche is the VLA segment, like the A380, the current orderbook pretty much covers it.

Now, will the -X be able to compete with A350 and 787 on non VLA market segment?



We've gone over and over and over all these arguments. There is merit on both sides. Time will tell why is there such a need to be right or the extreme hard view only needs to believed. Like were all trying to prove our intellect..... with absolutes.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:33 am

morrisond wrote:
Good post RJMAZ - the only Caveat the more I think about it though is my previous thought that the 8 never sees the light of day and that effort/funds are put into stretching the -9 into an -10 as long as possible - call it 85M.

Although it would hurt it on range - it's economics up to 6,000nm would be phenomenal with up to 100 more seats or 50/65 3 class/2 class.

Thanks!

A stretch actually reduces range more than you think. A stretch to 85m would have a range well below 6000nm.

A stretch means increases fuselage drag requiring extra thrust to reach minimum climb levels. See the 787-10 engine thrusts.

A stretch means extra empty weight so with the same MTOW weight fuel must be reduced.

A stretch means more cabin area so a heavier standard payload and even less weight available for fuel.

The landing weight will be much higher most likely requiring a stronger landing gear even if the MTOW is kept the same. The payload might have to be slashed to keep landing weight the same.

At around 2000kg of empty weight for every metre of 777X fuselage it adds up quick.

My estimates are as follows:
777-9: 76.7m 181T OEW range with 410 passengers 7525nm.

80m stretch: 187T + 4% thrust/fuel burn 4% less fuel carried. Range reduced by 8% to 430 passengers 6925nm

82m stretch: 191T + 6.5% thrust/fuel burn 6.5% less fuel carried. Range reduced 13% to 445 passengers 6575nm

84m stretch: 195T + 9% thrust/fuel burn 9% less fuel carried. Range reduced 18% to 460 passengers 6150nm

85m stretch is below 6000nm and the engines would need 10% more thrust which might be difficult.
 
Hamlet69
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:26 am

par13del wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Can't be any love lost between the Boeing 787 and 777X teams. At least at Airbus, A330NEO and A350 has common ownership.

Remind me again who owns the Boeing 787 versus the Boeing 777 that the teams would fight against each other because unlike Airbus, they do not have a common ownership?


S/He is talking about the internal divisions. At Boeing, the finance teams are different between the different programs, while Airbus use the same for both the A330 and A350. The Boeing Sales/marketing teams are also different, but that gets a little murkier as I’ve known people who will work for both at the same time. There’s been talk of merging the teams, but I have no idea when, or even if, that’s actually going to happen. It should.

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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:27 am

RJMAZ wrote:

85m stretch is below 6000nm and the engines would need 10% more thrust which might be difficult.


Didn't someone link a post that said the ge9x had reached 137klbs thrust? That's more then the 10% needed.

I think boeing might find it easier and cheaper to reconfigure the exit doors and raise capasity that way no?
 
chiki
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:08 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:

85m stretch is below 6000nm and the engines would need 10% more thrust which might be difficult.


Didn't someone link a post that said the ge9x had reached 137klbs thrust? That's more then the 10% needed.

I think boeing might find it easier and cheaper to reconfigure the exit doors and raise capasity that way no?
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:22 am

I still think a better option is door changes to up capaxity.

But will anyone other than Emirates want it?

Ana perhaps for high density Japan domestic market?
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:48 am

Hamlet69 wrote:
par13del wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Can't be any love lost between the Boeing 787 and 777X teams. At least at Airbus, A330NEO and A350 has common ownership.

Remind me again who owns the Boeing 787 versus the Boeing 777 that the teams would fight against each other because unlike Airbus, they do not have a common ownership?


S/He is talking about the internal divisions. At Boeing, the finance teams are different between the different programs, while Airbus use the same for both the A330 and A350. The Boeing Sales/marketing teams are also different, but that gets a little murkier as I’ve known people who will work for both at the same time. There’s been talk of merging the teams, but I have no idea when, or even if, that’s actually going to happen. It should.

Thank you. He is talking about internal divisions. Each model family in Boeing is 'owned' by a separate business unit. They are in competition with each other for customers, funding and staff. Airbus isn't any different, except the A330NEO and A350 are in the same business unit.

If the 787 and 777 had been owned by the same business unit, would a different decision have been made post 787 launch? Would the capabilities of the 787 been able to run riot? Would it now be even more capable and profitable?
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:54 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Boeing earns 3-4 times more per 787 air frame sold, compared to the X, and that will never change.

Champions within Boeing sold the X concept to the Board as a future freight platform, claiming it would excel once the A380, 748i and non-X versions of the 777 were no longer offered. Are they as bullish today?

But they were wearing blinkers in respect to the 787, perhaps because they were assured 787 capability would be managed (curtailed), to avoid stepping into X territory.

Where would Boeing be with a MAX replacement and a second (long distance) wing for the 787, if X development investment had instead been re-directed over the same period?

Now they have a similar quandry with the 787/777X as Airbus with the A330NEO/A350 and A320NEO/A330NEO. Do you restrict 787 and A330NEO sales by managing capability, even though per unit profitability is greater for the smaller aircraft, and enhancements are already in the bank, reducing overall group profit?

Or do you unleash the 787, A320NEO and A330NEO, harming 777X and A350 profitability even more, condemning both models to niche status or worse?

Can't be any love lost between the Boeing 787 and 777X teams. At least at Airbus, A330NEO and A350 has common ownership.


I think you are making stuff up. If the 777x was launched primarily as a platform for freight, they would not have widened the fuselage. The wider fuselage doesn’t help since container dimensions are standardized. The wider cabin only slightly improves the walkway space next to the containers.

It's you highlighting my freight comment.

Do you not think ONE of the 777X justifications sold to the Board was along the lines this will be our WB freight platform of the future, allowing model consolidation, replacing the X's predecessors and the 748F?
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:56 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Good post RJMAZ - the only Caveat the more I think about it though is my previous thought that the 8 never sees the light of day and that effort/funds are put into stretching the -9 into an -10 as long as possible - call it 85M.

Although it would hurt it on range - it's economics up to 6,000nm would be phenomenal with up to 100 more seats or 50/65 3 class/2 class.

Thanks!

A stretch actually reduces range more than you think. A stretch to 85m would have a range well below 6000nm.

A stretch means increases fuselage drag requiring extra thrust to reach minimum climb levels. See the 787-10 engine thrusts.

A stretch means extra empty weight so with the same MTOW weight fuel must be reduced.

A stretch means more cabin area so a heavier standard payload and even less weight available for fuel.

The landing weight will be much higher most likely requiring a stronger landing gear even if the MTOW is kept the same. The payload might have to be slashed to keep landing weight the same.

At around 2000kg of empty weight for every metre of 777X fuselage it adds up quick.

My estimates are as follows:
777-9: 76.7m 181T OEW range with 410 passengers 7525nm.

80m stretch: 187T + 4% thrust/fuel burn 4% less fuel carried. Range reduced by 8% to 430 passengers 6925nm

82m stretch: 191T + 6.5% thrust/fuel burn 6.5% less fuel carried. Range reduced 13% to 445 passengers 6575nm

84m stretch: 195T + 9% thrust/fuel burn 9% less fuel carried. Range reduced 18% to 460 passengers 6150nm

85m stretch is below 6000nm and the engines would need 10% more thrust which might be difficult.


Others answered below on the engine thrust - it seems like the GE9X should be able to do more for extra Takeoff Thrust.

There is also the rumored increase to 360T MTOW weight. 85M might be difficult but maybe they found more in the AERO and engines than they are letting on. I would also bet they have taken more off the OEW weight when they saw how good and capable the A351 was with the MTOW increase to 316T and possibly more.

It might not make 85M possible but something in the 82-83M range seems possible with reasonable range.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:01 pm

Interesting to read half this thread arguing the -9 is too big and the other half arguing it should be bigger.

Maybe that means it's the right size after all?
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:14 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting to read half this thread arguing the -9 is too big and the other half arguing it should be bigger.

Maybe that means it's the right size after all?


Boeing increased the 779 size to where it reached the limits of the existing 777 design. It is almost filling the 80 M box for length, I think Boeing chose its size as the best option, that was when they knew the 747 was no longer a pax plane, and the A380 still loomed over the upper end. Now its location in the lineup looks quite good as it is the largest available.

I am amazed that we are 11 pages of comments in without any new news on the 777 at EK.
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:18 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting to read half this thread arguing the -9 is too big and the other half arguing it should be bigger.

Maybe that means it's the right size after all?


It could be - it probably just means they should never do 778 and just make an 779F and wind down the 748F.

They can use the 748 factory space for NMA.
 
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PW100
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:56 pm

AC77X wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
And since the poster was drawing a comparison to A380, we should add that A380 was built with engines older than GE90-115B never mind GE9X and was scaled to enable both A380-900 and A380-800F. A380 failed because its engines weren't even state of the art at EIS and was targeted to growth markets that never emerged. 779 has state of the art engines and is only a two row stretch of 77W and fits well in to the fleets of current 77W operators.


So why no A380 NEO?

Because you would have to maintain 4 engines.


Anythnig that offers the same capacity will require the maintenance of 4 engines (i.e. 2x 787 = 4 engines).
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:01 pm

PW100 wrote:
Anythnig that offers the same capacity will require the maintenance of 4 engines (i.e. 2x 787 = 4 engines).

Which is more pushback against the "A380 and 777x are the same" meme floating around here.

A380 is more than a third bigger when it comes to pax capacity and it crosses in to the regime where four engines are necessary.
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PW100
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
PW100 wrote:
Anythnig that offers the same capacity will require the maintenance of 4 engines (i.e. 2x 787 = 4 engines).

Which is more pushback against the "A380 and 777x are the same" meme floating around here.
A380 is more than a third bigger when it comes to pax capacity and it crosses in to the regime where four engines are necessary.


Not going to argue (though there is more to it), but even the 779 will not come close to carry the same pax load in similar comfort levels. The point still stands.
Yes the smaller plane offers (much) more flexibility, but that wasn't the point being made by the poster I was replying to.
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:17 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
I still think a better option is door changes to up capacity. But will anyone other than Emirates want it? (ANA) perhaps for high density Japan domestic market?


If Emirates wanted a 550-seat Exit Limit, they would not have agreed with Boeing removing the overwing Type A door.

So far, Emirates have said that they intend to seat 440 in two classes on the 777-9 so that means an A-A-A-A configuration, with the Type C door being plugged.

As for ANA, the need for a 500+ seat frame is probably going away. They can put up to 495 in the 777-9 with an A-A-A-C-A configuration, but if they really need a 514-seat replacement for their 777-300A, they can reconfigure some 777-300ERs as they get replaced with 777-9s.
Last edited by Stitch on Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AC77X
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:27 pm

PW100 wrote:
AC77X wrote:
mig17 wrote:

So why no A380 NEO?

Because you would have to maintain 4 engines.


Anythnig that offers the same capacity will require the maintenance of 4 engines (i.e. 2x 787 = 4 engines).

Correct, but 2 779s would hold more people than a single 380. At their highest capacity, EK's 380s can hold 615 pax. While I'm not aware of EK ever saying how many pax their 779s will hold, it is supposed to hold 349 pax or something around there in a normal 3 class configuration. So you can carry 698 people on 2 779s with 4 engines, more than the 380's 615 on the same amount of engines. I doubt EK would make a 38N hold 699 pax.

Please correct me if I'm wrong though.
 
Absynth
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:00 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:

I am amazed that we are 11 pages of comments in without any new news on the 777 at EK.


VLA's are the flagships of aviaton, add testosterone and stir. Besides, it's fun to speculate.

I agree with Morrisond that it's a matter of time until E3 need 500+ VLAs to replace their 380s, and more p2p fat routes will grow into the 450+ the coming decade.

If Boeing doesnt address that market with an X10, Airbus eventually will, with the lessons learned from both the A380 and A350.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:03 pm

... until ME3 need ...?
 
Absynth
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:28 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
... until ME3 need ...?


Oops yes indeed. E3 too but they are dwarfed in that department. But with the increase of P2P I can see their need for VLA's grow longer term. ME3 will need a lot of extra long thin routes to feed into an ever diminishing amount of fat ones.

I also meant 500+ pax VLA's, not 500+ planes.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:38 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change strategy.


Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll:


Clearly?
OK. Your sources? :roll:
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:02 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change strategy.


Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll:


Clearly?
OK. Your sources? :roll:


Sources, maybe your own eyes? EK have focused on the A380 and the 77W for the last decade, and would have continued with the A380, they are renegotiating 77X orders, adding A339s and A359s which is a change from what they were doing. Sure the hub and spoke strategy doesn’t change to much but it does allow them to change gauge and right size many markets.
 
Absynth
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:03 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change strategy.


Except Emirates clearly is
changing its strategy. :roll:


Clearly?
OK. Your sources? :roll:


wow...you continue to ask people to provide sources, yet duck and hide when people ask you to provide the same for your bold claims that seem pulled from thin air.

And you roll your eyes on top of that.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:24 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll:


Clearly?
OK. Your sources? :roll:


Sources, maybe your own eyes? EK have focused on the A380 and the 77W for the last decade, and would have continued with the A380, they are renegotiating 77X orders, adding A339s and A359s which is a change from what they were doing. Sure the hub and spoke strategy doesn’t change to much but it does allow them to change gauge and right size many markets.


Except that EK is kindly obliged to honor the contract with Airbus when it euthanisia the A380 that's why EK change for A350-900's and A330-900's against 787-10.

For the moment nothing guarantees that they will reduce the 777-X order . On the contrary, it will replace the A380 in the longer term.

This thread is an opportunity to speculate in favor of Airbus against Boeing, but nothing official, the 777-X still totals 344 orders
 
Checklist787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:33 pm

Absynth wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Except Emirates clearly is
changing its strategy. :roll:


Clearly?
OK. Your sources? :roll:


wow...you continue to ask people to provide sources, yet duck and hide when people ask you to provide the same for your bold claims that seem pulled from thin air.

And you roll your eyes on top of that.


I already explained that the walls of the 777-X were in CFRP.

Again the moderators deleted 4 messages the same day. No need for sources they have not found since 2014.

You can not make walls thinner without CFRP. I have already said here that there are fakenews and that we are obliged to refute while asking for sources.

It's amazing how many ABSOLUTELY want to reduce 777-X orders at any cost!
Last edited by Checklist787 on Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Hamlet69
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:35 pm

smartplane wrote:
If the 787 and 777 had been owned by the same business unit, would a different decision have been made post 787 launch? Would the capabilities of the 787 been able to run riot? Would it now be even more capable and profitable?


I’m not convinced it would have actually changed the ‘X’ decision, honestly.

In order to significantly increase the capabilities of the 787, it would need a heavily modified, if not all-new wing, which you’ve previously alluded to. In short, a wing very similar to the 777X’s, only slightly smaller. This would allow the envisioned ‘787-10ER’ and ‘787-11’ that Keesje et. al. have argued for. Of course, such aircraft would also require a new or equally heavily-modified wing box, undercarriage, and tail assembly. It would also likely require new engines. In short, the same exact changes (and investment) as the ‘X’. In return one would get a separate 2-member 787 family that would closely mirror the current A350 family, while only holding a minor weight advantage vs the one the current 787 enjoys. It’s also unlikely the new ‘-11’ would be as large or as capable as the 777-9X.

Is it worth it?

Well, as a few members here like to point out, all except 1 current 777X customer is also an A350 customer. What they conveniently ignore, in order to question the ‘X’s validity, is that all those customers ordered the ‘X’ AFTER buying the A350 (in some cases, including the -1000). Which means they all saw capabilities in the 777X that they felt they could use and couldn’t get with the A350-1000. Which means it’s highly unlikely they would get that in our hypothetical ‘787-11.’ Which would then imply that the value proposition for the upgraded 787 becomes that much harder.

Regards,

Hamlet69
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:09 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
I already explained that the walls of the 777-X were in CFRP.


Except they are not. They are an Aluminum-Lithium alloy.


Checklist787 wrote:
You can not make walls thinner without CFRP.


When we are all referring to "walls", we are referring to the fuselage structure inboard of the outer skin. Newer insulating materials require less thickness to provide the same level of thermal and noise control and by sculpting the sidewalls deeper, it allows a wider cabin at the passenger seating level.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:15 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Clearly?
OK. Your sources? :roll:


Sources, maybe your own eyes? EK have focused on the A380 and the 77W for the last decade, and would have continued with the A380, they are renegotiating 77X orders, adding A339s and A359s which is a change from what they were doing. Sure the hub and spoke strategy doesn’t change to much but it does allow them to change gauge and right size many markets.


Except that EK is kindly obliged to honor the contract with Airbus when it euthanisia the A380 that's why EK change for A350-900's and A330-900's against 787-10.

For the moment nothing guarantees that they will reduce the 777-X order . On the contrary, it will replace the A380 in the longer term.

This thread is an opportunity to speculate in favor of Airbus against Boeing, but nothing official, the 777-X still totals 344 orders


I don’t know any of the details and am not an expert however I doubt EK was obliged to honour anything once the A380 was cancelled however they obviously liked the look of the A339 for flights up to 8hrs which meant they could use that instead of the 78J which wasn’t firmed yet. While the A359 could fit in under the 77W/77X on long haul as a route starter for routes up to 12-14hrs.

I actually agree with you that there are no guarantees that the 77X order will be reduced although the 778 remains a big? Will a future 319T A35J have the lift for EK or will they have an ULH 779 configuration or miss use the standards long haul one on ULH?
 
StTim
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:22 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Absynth wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Clearly?
OK. Your sources? :roll:


wow...you continue to ask people to provide sources, yet duck and hide when people ask you to provide the same for your bold claims that seem pulled from thin air.

And you roll your eyes on top of that.


I already explained that the walls of the 777-X were in CFRP.

Again the moderators deleted 4 messages the same day. No need for sources they have not found since 2014.

You can not make walls thinner without CFRP. I have already said here that there are fakenews and that we are obliged to refute while asking for sources.

It's amazing how many ABSOLUTELY want to reduce 777-X orders at any cost!

Since your statement I have searched for any source to back you up. I have found none. Indeed I found documents to the contrary.

We are not talking about making the skin thinner. We are talking about reducing the height of the I beam frame onto which the skin is riveted and together with the stringers form the barrel.

I have already explained that it is likely (not proven again as I can find no source either way) that by reducing the I beam height at the sculpted part it will actually need to contain more metal.

Now we do know they have gone for an Al-Li alloy which has better properties (but is more expensive). In all these engineering designs you have to make compromises. Cheaper material, more of it, heavier. More expensive material, less of it, lighter.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:11 am

Hamlet69 wrote:
In order to significantly increase the capabilities of the 787, it would need a heavily modified, if not all-new wing, which you’ve previously alluded to. In short, a wing very similar to the 777X’s, only slightly smaller.

The 787 will never need a new wing to significantly increase capability. At most it will get new wing tips.

The 787-9 was originally meant to have larger wingtips that increased the effective wingspan. The 787-8 wing turned out to be so good the wing tip extensions were dropped for the 787-9 as the extra performance was not worth the added cost at the time.

Remember the 787 program had many delays and was billions over budget. This resulted in both the 787-9 and 787-3 to be simplified with more 787-8 parts, they both lost their optimisation which reduced sales. The original optimised 787-3 would most likely be selling well right now. The original proposed 787-9 with the longer wingtips would be selling even better against the A350-900.

These wingtips would still be an option to improve range by about 5% due to the improved lift to drag. Remember new engines in 10 years time will extend range by easily 10% which might be all that is needed.

The 787-10's range will hit 7000nm with just new engines and it will probably match the current 787-9's payload range curve. With the added wingtips the 787-10 would probably match the payload range curve of the current 777-300ER.

I do expect long haul aircraft to get smaller and smaller. 777X sales will cease as soon as the 787NEO and A350NEO comes out.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:09 am

Stitch wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
I still think a better option is door changes to up capacity. But will anyone other than Emirates want it? (ANA) perhaps for high density Japan domestic market?


If Emirates wanted a 550-seat Exit Limit, they would not have agreed with Boeing removing the overwing Type A door.

So far, Emirates have said that they intend to seat 440 in two classes on the 777-9 so that means an A-A-A-A configuration, with the Type C door being plugged.

As for ANA, the need for a 500+ seat frame is probably going away. They can put up to 495 in the 777-9 with an A-A-A-C-A configuration, but if they really need a 514-seat replacement for their 777-300A, they can reconfigure some 777-300ERs as they get replaced with 777-9s.


Many thanks for the explanations. Good point above the A door over the wing. That gives good indication of Emirates planNed layout next year.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:05 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The 787 will never need a new wing to significantly increase capability. At most it will get new wing tips.

The 787-9 was originally meant to have larger wingtips that increased the effective wingspan. The 787-8 wing turned out to be so good the wing tip extensions were dropped for the 787-9 as the extra performance was not worth the added cost at the time.

Remember the 787 program had many delays and was billions over budget. This resulted in both the 787-9 and 787-3 to be simplified with more 787-8 parts, they both lost their optimisation which reduced sales. The original optimised 787-3 would most likely be selling well right now. The original proposed 787-9 with the longer wingtips would be selling even better against the A350-900.

These wingtips would still be an option to improve range by about 5% due to the improved lift to drag. Remember new engines in 10 years time will extend range by easily 10% which might be all that is needed.

The 787-10's range will hit 7000nm with just new engines and it will probably match the current 787-9's payload range curve. With the added wingtips the 787-10 would probably match the payload range curve of the current 777-300ER.

I do expect long haul aircraft to get smaller and smaller. 777X sales will cease as soon as the 787NEO and A350NEO comes out.



I don't think the 789 didn't get the wing treatment it was supposed to due to the 788 wing being so great, I think it was more to do with the aircraft being so delayed they were happy to eat the improvements rather than spend the extra money and time it would have meant to proceed as planned. Unless we think that the engineers were so off base that they are happy to let a 5% improvement on the table because they underestimated how good their design is.

Also, can you imagine how good the 78X would have been had it had the bigger wing? Combined with the more 789 sales it would have left the A359 with no sales at all. But Boeing just decided it wasn't worth it because they don't need those sales I suppose.
 
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PW100
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:10 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Hamlet69 wrote:
In order to significantly increase the capabilities of the 787, it would need a heavily modified, if not all-new wing, which you’ve previously alluded to. In short, a wing very similar to the 777X’s, only slightly smaller.

The 787 will never need a new wing to significantly increase capability. At most it will get new wing tips.

The 787-9 was originally meant to have larger wingtips that increased the effective wingspan. The 787-8 wing turned out to be so good the wing tip extensions were dropped for the 787-9 as the extra performance was not worth the added cost at the time.

Remember the 787 program had many delays and was billions over budget. This resulted in both the 787-9 and 787-3 to be simplified with more 787-8 parts, they both lost their optimisation which reduced sales. The original optimised 787-3 would most likely be selling well right now. The original proposed 787-9 with the longer wingtips would be selling even better against the A350-900.

These wingtips would still be an option to improve range by about 5% due to the improved lift to drag. Remember new engines in 10 years time will extend range by easily 10% which might be all that is needed.

The 787-10's range will hit 7000nm with just new engines and it will probably match the current 787-9's payload range curve. With the added wingtips the 787-10 would probably match the payload range curve of the current 777-300ER.


What's stopping new wingtips on 787? Surely, a 5% reduction in fuel consumption through improved wingtips must be an order of magnitude cheaper than the same 5% reduction through engine improvements. Especially in life-cycle cost (engines are expensive in purchase and in maintenance).

Seems like low hanging fruit, why wait for (expensive) engine upgrade?
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:18 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
I don’t know any of the details and am not an expert however I doubt EK was obliged to honour anything once the A380 was cancelled however they obviously liked the look of the A339 for flights up to 8hrs which meant they could use that instead of the 78J which wasn’t firmed yet. While the A359 could fit in under the 77W/77X on long haul as a route starter for routes up to 12-14hrs.

I actually agree with you that there are no guarantees that the 77X order will be reduced although the 778 remains a big? Will a future 319T A35J have the lift for EK or will they have an ULH 779 configuration or miss use the standards long haul one on ULH?

If you look at the press releases of the time both Airbus and EK say it was EK that cancelled its A380 order rather than Airbus cancelling the A380.

Thus I think it's pretty clear given Airbus was holding a bunch of EK deposits for dozens of A380s that pretty much forced EK to order other Airbus products.

The genesis for all this was that EK wanted a new engine on the A380 going back to the 2014-6 time frame and Airbus + RR tried but the business case did not close.

Keep in mind that EK's order for 777x was done in July 2014 whilst all those A380s were on the books and EK was dangling all kinds of huge A380 orders (remember the 50 ship order? remember the 20+18 "life saver" order?) to try to get better engines on the A380.

I think the current A330/A350 order is turning A380 lemons in to A330/A350 lemonade, and the renegotiation move is just good business sense to try to leverage circumstances for better terms on the 777x, and once they have 777x in the fleet they will finally get the large aircraft with state of the art engines that they've wanted going back to 2014 or so.
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cledaybuck
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:28 pm

PW100 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Hamlet69 wrote:
In order to significantly increase the capabilities of the 787, it would need a heavily modified, if not all-new wing, which you’ve previously alluded to. In short, a wing very similar to the 777X’s, only slightly smaller.

The 787 will never need a new wing to significantly increase capability. At most it will get new wing tips.

The 787-9 was originally meant to have larger wingtips that increased the effective wingspan. The 787-8 wing turned out to be so good the wing tip extensions were dropped for the 787-9 as the extra performance was not worth the added cost at the time.

Remember the 787 program had many delays and was billions over budget. This resulted in both the 787-9 and 787-3 to be simplified with more 787-8 parts, they both lost their optimisation which reduced sales. The original optimised 787-3 would most likely be selling well right now. The original proposed 787-9 with the longer wingtips would be selling even better against the A350-900.

These wingtips would still be an option to improve range by about 5% due to the improved lift to drag. Remember new engines in 10 years time will extend range by easily 10% which might be all that is needed.

The 787-10's range will hit 7000nm with just new engines and it will probably match the current 787-9's payload range curve. With the added wingtips the 787-10 would probably match the payload range curve of the current 777-300ER.


What's stopping new wingtips on 787? Surely, a 5% reduction in fuel consumption through improved wingtips must be an order of magnitude cheaper than the same 5% reduction through engine improvements. Especially in life-cycle cost (engines are expensive in purchase and in maintenance).

Seems like low hanging fruit, why wait for (expensive) engine upgrade?
Because recertification of a new wing (even if it is just an extension) is expensive. Plus, Boeing still seems somewhat interested in still building 8’s, and the common wing keeps those costs down. I also don’t remember 5%, but even if it is, that is not for all flight profiles. The smaller wing is probably better on short missions and the longer the mission, the better the bigger wing gets in comparison. All that said, it wouldn’t surprise me if the 787 gets the bigger wing and the 8 is dropped when the 787 gets a major redesign.
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:49 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change strategy.


Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll:


Clearly?


Yes, clearly. :yes:

They've cancelled (yes, it was their decision) most of their outstanding A380s and swapped them for smaller A330neos and A359s. At the same time, they are still apparently negotiating a deal for 787s, no longer -10s but the smaller -9s.

So, an airline that currently only has 10 planes smaller than the 77W, will now have no less than 110 (40 A330-900s, 30 A350-900s and 40 787-9s). In what way is that not a clear change from the previous strategy of only operating the largest planes available? :scratchchin:

Checklist787 wrote:
OK. Your sources? :roll:


Sources? :rotfl: :roll:
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:30 pm

enzo011 wrote:
I don't think the 789 didn't get the wing treatment it was supposed to due to the 788 wing being so great, I think it was more to do with the aircraft being so delayed they were happy to eat the improvements rather than spend the extra money and time it would have meant to proceed as planned. Unless we think that the engineers were so off base that they are happy to let a 5% improvement on the table because they underestimated how good their design is.


I have no doubt program delays and cost escalations played a not-insignificant role in the decision to use the 787-8 wing on the 787-9, but If the extra three meters of wingtip span would have returned a 5% reduction in SFC across the entire mission envelope, there is no way Boeing would not have done it.

The 787-8 baseline wing came out better than expected aerodynamically and adding the extra span would have added just under 2000kg to the empty weight. I'm pretty sure 2000kg less weight is not worth a 5% decrease in SFC since Boeing has been pulling more than that out of the frames over the program's life and we have not seen that level of improvement. Boeing's models evidently showed that for the average 787-9 mission planned by their customers, the span / weight trade-off was effectively even. And considering Boeing had performance guarantees in place with 787-9 customers, if going to a 787-8 wing would have significantly (5%) impacted the economics, that would have not only cost Boeing money then and there in compensation for the miss, but also down the road by making the plane less competitive with the A350-900 (which Boeing knew was coming by the time the decision was made) in future RFPs.


enzo011 wrote:
Also, can you imagine how good the 78X would have been had it had the bigger wing? Combined with the more 789 sales it would have left the A359 with no sales at all. But Boeing just decided it wasn't worth it because they don't need those sales I suppose.


I would assume where the span increase helped the most was at the farther end of the payload-range curve and the significant majority of 787-9 flights are nowhere near that based on average stage length reports. And the 787-10 is even farther down that range curve so I am inclined to believe it would have done little to nothing to improve it's performance.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:55 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll:


Clearly?


Yes, clearly. :yes:

They've cancelled (yes, it was their decision) most of their outstanding A380s and swapped them for smaller A330neos and A359s. At the same time, they are still apparently negotiating a deal for 787s, no longer -10s but the smaller -9s.

So, an airline that currently only has 10 planes smaller than the 77W, will now have no less than 110 (40 A330-900s, 30 A350-900s and 40 787-9s). In what way is that not a clear change from the previous strategy of only operating the largest planes available? :scratchchin:

Checklist787 wrote:
OK. Your sources? :roll:


Sources? :rotfl: :roll:


You hit nails on head scrbml - ek has no choice but to change or it will suffer badly in the future.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:45 pm

Stitch wrote:
[I have no doubt program delays and cost escalations played a not-insignificant role in the decision to use the 787-8 wing on the 787-9, but If the extra three meters of wingtip span would have returned a 5% reduction in SFC across the entire mission envelope, there is no way Boeing would not have done it.

One minor correction is I said 5% greater range. That does not mean 5% less SFC across the entire mission envelope. The maximum brochure range is with a medium density cabin with passengers and bags only. With heavier payloads and shorter ranges the advantage would drop.

CASM would probably be unchanged on shorter flights due the extra empty weight increasing airport fees to a similar cost of the fuel saved.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:35 am

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll:


Clearly?


Yes, clearly. :yes:

They've cancelled (yes, it was their decision) most of their outstanding A380s and swapped them for smaller A330neos and A359s. At the same time, they are still apparently negotiating a deal for 787s, no longer -10s but the smaller -9s.

So, an airline that currently only has 10 planes smaller than the 77W, will now have no less than 110 (40 A330-900s, 30 A350-900s and 40 787-9s). In what way is that not a clear change from the previous strategy of only operating the largest planes available? :scratchchin:

Checklist787 wrote:
OK. Your sources? :roll:


Sources? :rotfl: :roll:


No change of "strategy."

They will still keep the 777-X as a replacement for the 777-300ER's and A380's.

The 787-10's MOU / Memorandum Of Understanding, have been expired and replaced by the A330-900's and A350-900's while the 787-10 could do operate

I do not understand what "strategy" you are talking about and what is justifying it and how can you show it.

I see only one hope to see the 777-X join the A380 just because many of you wish.
SORRY if I do not bring credit to that.

"Strategy" is a BIG word to me imho...

Correct me if im wrong

:roll:
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:12 am

Checklist787 wrote:
No change of "strategy."

...

I do not understand what "strategy" you are talking about and what is justifying it and how can you show it.

I see only one hope to see the 777-X join the A380 just because many of you wish.


I don't wish for anything because I have no skin in the game.

But, I can't help you if you refuse to see what is plainly in front of your face. :wave:

:roll:
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Charlie252
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:13 am

With regards to the "Change of Strategy" clearly this is the case, the original strategy was 777/380 and they assumed the markets would meet the capacity they added, this worked for some time until saturation and competition caught up.

The "Strategy" has changed, they have made a significant statement to that effect with the order for the "smaller" wide-body aircraft, but not just that STC has been quoted as such in recent months, he has spoken of the Network Team working on a new plan around these smaller aircraft and the requirement to have these smaller aircraft in order to launch new markets and start the next stage of expansion.
 
Cerecl
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:21 am

Checklist787 wrote:
Correct me if im wrong

The strategy change is to use smaller aircrafts to operate routes currently operated by 77W (Minimum ~350 seats) and A380. Another words, a reduction of capacity on some routes. It is no longer wise to assume 777X alone will replace 77W and A380. Consequently the requirement for 777X in a future EK fleet is probably less than originally envisioned when the order was first placed. How much less will depend on the world economy and how EK likes 787/A330neo/A350 class aircrafts and the possible -neo version of 787/A350/NMA/Whatever Airbus develops to counter. This also opens the door for A350-1000 (and -ULR/Sunrise Project variant), which is now a substantially different aircraft compared to when EK first rejected it, in competition for 777-8.
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