olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:21 am

Charlie252 wrote:
With regards to the "Change of Strategy" clearly this is the case, the original strategy was 777/380 and they assumed the markets would meet the capacity they added, this worked for some time until saturation and competition caught up.

The "Strategy" has changed, they have made a significant statement to that effect with the order for the "smaller" wide-body aircraft, but not just that STC has been quoted as such in recent months, he has spoken of the Network Team working on a new plan around these smaller aircraft and the requirement to have these smaller aircraft in order to launch new markets and start the next stage of expansion.


This is the center in the discussion.

ME3 seems to have problem because the competitors they used to dominate over now have as efficient or even more efficient planes and business models then the ME3. The calculation that the 777 and 380 is the most efficient planes is not true any more.
 
mig17
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:44 pm

The ME futur is uncertain. On a political side, between Yemen, Iran, Qatar blocade, Turkey, and US not so supportive of SA anymore, the situation isn't so bright.
On the economical side, oil prices, a crisis rising in the UAE (I know some people being send home right now because there isn't job anymore) and the fact that they saw things too big too fast (like in aviation where the big 3 clearly overordered), it not going to be pretty.
And in aviation it is worst because legacy competition has adapted since 2000 and is now reclaiming lost marketshares killing the hub effect and new competition is raising like TK and ET. And the big ME3 are also competiting themselve. Etihad being the first casualty.
So yes EK is trying to adapt.
They are flying 250 A380 and 77W today. Tomorrow they will be flying something like 50 A380, 70 777 (W/X), 40 339, 30 A350 (9/K) and 50 787.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:39 pm

Cerecl wrote:
The strategy change is to use smaller aircrafts to operate routes currently operated by 77W (Minimum ~350 seats) and A380. Another words, a reduction of capacity on some routes. It is no longer wise to assume 777X alone will replace 77W and A380. Consequently the requirement for 777X in a future EK fleet is probably less than originally envisioned when the order was first placed.


I am still inclined to think the 777-9 order is safe long-term. EK has 123 A380s that will eventually need replacement and the 777-9 is 25-30% smaller (depending on configuration). EK would have to see a massive traffic contraction on their A380 routes for a 777-9 to be "too big". And they should have a fair number of 777-300ER routes that are strong enough to support a 777-9 replacement as the seating difference will be 5% or less. Between them, they should be able to support the 115 they have on order.
 
Cerecl
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:55 pm

Stitch wrote:
I am still inclined to think the 777-9 order is safe long-term. EK has 123 A380s that will eventually need replacement and the 777-9 is 25-30% smaller (depending on configuration). EK would have to see a massive traffic contraction on their A380 routes for a 777-9 to be "too big". And they should have a fair number of 777-300ER routes that are strong enough to support a 777-9 replacement as the seating difference will be 5% or less. Between them, they should be able to support the 115 they have on order.

Stitch you may well be right. I do look at some of EK's current routes though and wonder if they are really sustainable in the same frequency/capacity in the long run. Is there really demand anywhere near the ~1400 seats EK puts on DXB-MUC one way daily+ another 700 each from QR and EY for example?
The other thing is 77X is probably end of the 777 line whereas A350/787 are the first gen. What if in 7 years's time, half way through 77X's delivery these families get reengined and stretched which makes them significantly more efficient and more flexible than 77X?
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
JeremyB
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:27 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
If you can fill it.

Someone just posted a nice list of airlines who are betting large sums of money that they can.

Oh, here it is:

keesje wrote:
Firm orders for Boeing 777X

Lufthansa.........................20
Etihad Airways.................25
Cathay Pacific..................21
Emirates.........................150
Qatar Airways..................60
All Nippon Airways...........20
Unidentified customer......10
Singapore Airlines...........20
British Airways.................18

777-8: 53
777-9: 291
Total: 344



I think the 777X will sell decently but like the A380 I don't believe all those orders will be taken. Etihad is already said to be dropping some, Emirates might exchange some and I don't think there's anyway possible Qatar takes 60, that was a look at me order..


I don't see why they couldn't take 60. They currently operate 57 777's and are going to retire the A380.
 
Vladex
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:32 pm

Cerecl wrote:
Stitch wrote:
I am still inclined to think the 777-9 order is safe long-term. EK has 123 A380s that will eventually need replacement and the 777-9 is 25-30% smaller (depending on configuration). EK would have to see a massive traffic contraction on their A380 routes for a 777-9 to be "too big". And they should have a fair number of 777-300ER routes that are strong enough to support a 777-9 replacement as the seating difference will be 5% or less. Between them, they should be able to support the 115 they have on order.

Stitch you may well be right. I do look at some of EK's current routes though and wonder if they are really sustainable in the same frequency/capacity in the long run. Is there really demand anywhere near the ~1400 seats EK puts on DXB-MUC one way daily+ another 700 each from QR and EY for example?
The other thing is 77X is probably end of the 777 line whereas A350/787 are the first gen. What if in 7 years's time, half way through 77X's delivery these families get reengined and stretched which makes them significantly more efficient and more flexible than 77X?

787 can't get reengined and A350 has a limited ground clearance for reengine. My bet is another double decker quad jet in 10 years when everyone realizes that twin jets have reached a limit.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:57 pm

Vladex wrote:
787 can't get reengined and A350 has a limited ground clearance for reengine. My bet is another double decker quad jet in 10 years when everyone realizes that twin jets have reached a limit.

Incorrect. Check the ACAP both the 787 and A350 can comfortably fit engines 10% bigger in diameter. Ground clearance is not an issue.

It is actually insulting to both Airbus and Boeing to suggest they would not design their aircraft to accept a future engine upgrade.
 
Vladex
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:13 pm

Ultrafan concept is 355 cm which someone said in another thread correct me if I am wrong, would leave 787 with 0 clearance and A350 about 19 cm. That engine offers 10% efficiency compared to today's 787/A350 and it doesn't fit. So the payoff is minimal and risks and costs are big. I predicted 737 MAX disaster and I predict 787 won't be reengined and A350 will have some mild reengine down the line. I still see double deck quad engine as the necessary development in the next decade.
https://www.cleansky.eu/the-uhbr-engine ... s-momentum
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:23 pm

Vladex wrote:
Ultrafan concept is 355 cm which someone said in another thread correct me if I am wrong, would leave 787 with 0 clearance and A350 about 19 cm. That engine offers 10% efficiency compared to today's 787/A350 and it doesn't fit. So the payoff is minimal and risks and costs are big. I predicted 737 MAX disaster and I predict 787 won't be reengined and A350 will have some mild reengine down the line. I still see double deck quad engine as the necessary development in the next decade.
https://www.cleansky.eu/the-uhbr-engine ... s-momentum


That is the Ultrafan Demo engine - that doesn't mean one sized for 787 would need to be that big in diameter with that big of a fan or they can always mount the engine higher on the 787.

You may be the only one who see's a Double Deck Quad as a necessary development in the next Decade (Please detail why). The A380 is being shut down - Boeing could theoretically stretch the 777 to a -10 and 85M length which could take it to within 15-20% of an A388 in capacity and if anyone ever does anything larger than that (really doubtful) it would need to offer a step change in Aerodynamic Efficiency - something like an 800 Seat BWB with 3 777X motors on it's back.
 
Vladex
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:54 pm

It's not about capacity, it's all about ground clearance for new engine development. Double deck has significantly higher wing ground clearance due to load balancing and center of gravity which prior double deckers never took advantage of, hence they were inefficient as they had the same or smaller engines than the twins.

However new engine developments with bypass ratio over 15:1 will necessitate double deckers since twins have much lower wing ground clearance and this is the first time where they will have a decisive advantage over twins in terms of efficiency (up to 25%). Ultrafan design has been frozen for now so that prototype will be flying by 2025 and it won't be fitting on 787, maybe some crippled smaller version that offers 5% improvement. Stretching twins won't make them more efficient, just more troublesome and more limited.

The UltraFan demonstrator is in development at Rolls-Royce; a key focal point in the project is the analysis of the aero-coupling effects of the UltraFan engine and the wing because the fan of the UltraFan has a much larger diameter than conventional engines.
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:26 pm

Vladex wrote:
It's not about capacity, it's all about ground clearance for new engine development. Double deck has significantly higher wing ground clearance due to load balancing and center of gravity which prior double deckers never took advantage of, hence they were inefficient as they had the same or smaller engines than the twins.

However new engine developments with bypass ratio over 15:1 will necessitate double deckers since twins have much lower wing ground clearance and this is the first time where they will have a decisive advantage over twins in terms of efficiency (up to 25%). Ultrafan design has been frozen for now so that prototype will be flying by 2025 and it won't be fitting on 787, maybe some crippled smaller version that offers 5% improvement. Stretching twins won't make them more efficient, just more troublesome and more limited.

The UltraFan demonstrator is in development at Rolls-Royce; a key focal point in the project is the analysis of the aero-coupling effects of the UltraFan engine and the wing because the fan of the UltraFan has a much larger diameter than conventional engines.


There is Zero problem with Ground Clearance if you mount the Engines on top of a BWB. 3 Ultrafans around 90K thrust may be enough for an 800 seat BWB, or even 2 777X motors.

You ignored the comment that they could just mount the engine higher on the 787 as well. Rolls Royce isn't the only company that will have engines with that low Specific fuel consumption in that time frame - and I'm sure if Boeing wanted Rolls would do a custom engine for them.

How would a conventional quad be 25% more efficient than a twin?

Are you assuming the Wingbox on future Quads is mounted between decks? Why go to that length when you could just build a BWB?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:53 pm

Vladex wrote:
Ultrafan concept is 355 cm which someone said in another thread correct me if I am wrong, would leave 787 with 0 clearance and A350 about 19 cm.

Incorrect again.

The A330NEO fan is 33cm larger diameter yet ground clearance was reduced by less than 10cm. The engine was simply mounted higher.

The A320NEO fan is also 33cm larger diameter 173cm to 206cm yet ground clearance was reduced by only 11cm.

As you can see with the new engines two thirds of the extra fan diameter is placed higher up. Even if we assume 50/50 the ultrafan can fit on the A350 without a problem.

The 355cm ultrafan concept is 100,000lb of thrust and the 787 only needs an engine with three quarters of the thrust. An engine fan of 320cm is all that is required which is a 35cm diameter increase over the 285cm fan currently on the 787. They can then reduce ground clearance by 17.5cm.
 
HP69
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:57 pm

Emirates should just order more 77Ws instead. Much cheaper.
 
Qf648
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:10 am

Well with p2p now the preferred mode of operation and developments that enable any city access able from any location - why would you stop in the Middle East?
 
Vladex
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:07 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Ultrafan concept is 355 cm which someone said in another thread correct me if I am wrong, would leave 787 with 0 clearance and A350 about 19 cm.

Incorrect again.

The A330NEO fan is 33cm larger diameter yet ground clearance was reduced by less than 10cm. The engine was simply mounted higher.

The A320NEO fan is also 33cm larger diameter 173cm to 206cm yet ground clearance was reduced by only 11cm.

As you can see with the new engines two thirds of the extra fan diameter is placed higher up. Even if we assume 50/50 the ultrafan can fit on the A350 without a problem.

The 355cm ultrafan concept is 100,000lb of thrust and the 787 only needs an engine with three quarters of the thrust. An engine fan of 320cm is all that is required which is a 35cm diameter increase over the 285cm fan currently on the 787. They can then reduce ground clearance by 17.5cm.


Original A320 and A330 have a taller landing gear with much smaller 30 year old engine so it was easy and practical to NEO them . 787 is already topped out, there is minimal space to expand up and down. It`s already hanging high and it goes down almost to a man`s knees as seen here. I see maybe a 15 cm expansion
Image


compare that to the A350 and its engines that hangs out by the people midsection
https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-turbo ... 06415.html

and A380 engine that hangs about people`s shoulders
Image

and A380 engines are significantly lowered down so a bigger engine can be raised up a lot
Image
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:31 am

It looks like the 787 is about midsection as well in other images.

Scroll down to the second image in this article.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/how-airli ... oeing-787/
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:03 am

morrisond wrote:
It looks like the 787 is about midsection as well in other images.

Scroll down to the second image in this article.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/how-airli ... oeing-787/

Exactly, both the A350 and 787 can fit new higher bypass engines. Vladex is clearly incorrect.

The 787 engines are already fully in front of the wing so raising the engine is not a problem. There will be no repeat like the 737MAX where the engines had to be moved forward too.
 
Sokes
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:35 am

olle wrote:
ME3 seems to have problem because the competitors they used to dominate over now have as efficient or even more efficient planes and business models then the ME3. The calculation that the 777 and 380 is the most efficient planes is not true any more.

I also wondered about that for the German market. Now A340, later A350 or B777-9X.
However Indians working for Emirates will enjoy far lower salaries than Germans working for Lufthansa. So I see myself incapable to answer that question.
In one of the Gulf airports I saw a group of Chinese flying to Greece. I said to myself that's not exactly the shortest distance they can fly.


Vladex wrote:
...Double deck has significantly higher wing ground clearance due to load balancing and center of gravity which prior double deckers never took advantage of, hence they were inefficient as they had the same or smaller engines than the twins.
...

Can you expand on that?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Fiend
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:16 am

Qf648 wrote:
Well with p2p now the preferred mode of operation and developments that enable any city access able from any location - why would you stop in the Middle East?


For 15 years I've been flying between the UK and Thailand and with living in the northern England there is no direct flight option for me, LHR is too far away. MAN, NCL,GLA and EDI are all within 2.5 hours travel by car and offer 1 stop connections via the Middle East.

I also like the fact that I'm not stuck on an aircraft for more than 12 hours, even though the journey takes longer. have flown MAN-AMS-BKK and MAN-CDG-CAN and didn't enjoy the long sectors. Even if TG start the rumoured BKK-MAN service I will still opt for travelling via the Middle East.
BAC 1-11, A300, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, B737, B747, B757, B777, B787, L1011, Fokker 100, ATR 72, MD83
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:53 am

Dubai is in dire straits and I think the rumoured EK fleet reorganisation is centred on macro not micro economic issues.

1 - house prices are now at immediate post-2008 levels in Dubai (ie: immediately after the last crash) due to a total lack of control on supply of houses, leading to more villa, apartment, office and retail supply than the market can possibly handle. Its been this way for the last few years but a marked increase in supply against a softening of demand has seen prices fall faster in 2019 than at any time since the crash. Buyer confidence further dented by high profile cases of developer default and the fact that multi-year delays are commonplace and build quality is never anywhere near what is promised - the market is wising up to that. Another issue rearing its head is that as new shiny and sustainable villas come available, older villas such as in The Springs, JVC and even Jumeirah Heights which aren't even more than a few years old become much less desirable and rental incomes drop precipitously - I lived in Dubai for six years and I'd never ever ever buy there. Its a get rich quick scheme that has no happy ending that I have ever seen.

2 - regional tensions are making people nervous. Not just Iran but Yemen as well.

3 - Emirates has had its middle and upper management echelons cleaned of non-local faces and the majority are now locals. Management style has changed a lot in the last few years - the thinking tends to be cut costs to the bone but maintain huge salaries, maintain the smallest possible pilot pool by pushing your crews to the absolute limits leading to a lot of dangerously exhausted pilots. Retention has dropped off massively and a lot of the expats are either leaving or looking to leave. I have several EK pilots as friends and have dated three EK flight attendants. It used to be ok to be a whistleblower for things but safety culture has dropped off a lot and even pointing out something is unsafe will get you fired or subject to sanction.

4 - EK has raised its prices massively since the end of 2017 and is now usually the most expensive option between any two citypairs. Expats in Dubai have long been irritated by the fact that EK charges upwards of a thousand pounds to fly to LHR or SIN return for an expat in Dubai, but it is half that if you are flying the opposite way. Fares went absolutely ridiculous. I was platinum tier with them and have stopped flying with them altogether now. BA/Cathay/KLM get my business now. They have a good but not exceptional product in all classes but I'm not paying double the fare to take them over, say, KLM or Cathay etc. I have a feeling most expats agree with this sentiment. The greed (coupled with a fairly drastic drop in cabin standards at the same time) has put me off flying them for life.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:42 am

LAX772LR wrote:
behramjee wrote:
Clark said that “once we get these smaller aircraft in, like the A330neo and the 787-9, we’ll be able to grow the network significantly again,” opening routes that were too small for the much bigger Airbus A380s and Boeing 777-300ERs that make up the current fleet.

This is one of the biggest "gee, no kidding dude?!" moments in the industry, and has been for a long time...

...but the immediate question that comes to mind is: with what slots are you going to do this?

The ones that don't exist at DXB? Or is this after the move to DWC that they refuse to give a comprehensive timeline for, and where the authorities are likely in a mind financing the expansion thereof?

That will mostly be for DWC. I believe that they will start operating soon from there (partially at the beginning ahead of a full move). I do not have clear sources but see the works on teh Airport (the company I work for does the signage and branding for both DXB and DWC). DWC will reduce slot constraints and will allow EK to operate smaller aircrafts on thin routes which was hampered on DXB.

I am not sure, someone can correct me on this but everybody is speaking on size of the orders but not on when does will be delivered. The A350 is slow, the B787s are more fastly available. The B777X may be on certification stages (or earlier - have not checked lately) and I have no idea of how many A339s are being shifted by Airbus on a given period.

Clearly, EK ended up with the A350s and A339s only as a caveat for cancelling the A380s order. It probably does not need as many B777Xs but will end up with some extra B787s as a result of reduction of the order for the former.

I personally still wonder why, contrary to the other ME3 airlines, it does not operates NB aircrafts (maybe the A321 or a longer version of the B737) since several routes are shorter in the region (MCT is under 1 hour flight, for example). Might be a strech for them but clearly flying B77Ws and A380s all over is no longer profitable for them.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:29 am

EK has over 150 77Ws.

Aren't the 9X due to riplacing these on a 121 basis?
 
Amiga500
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:14 am

Qf648 wrote:
Well with p2p now the preferred mode of operation and developments that enable any city access able from any location - why would you stop in the Middle East?


It will still be cheaper to serve some markets via a single-point hub. Indeed, it will always be cheaper to serve some markets from a single point hub.
 
Pcoder
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:32 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
EK has over 150 77Ws.

Aren't the 9X due to riplacing these on a 121 basis?


A good number of the existing 77W will still be operational in 10 years. Most orders for aircraft would be for the next 8-10 years max, as many things can change in that period.

The issue is probably the 150 777X for the next 8-10 year period, is too much and the order needs to be amend for changes to its projected Business.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:35 am

Stitch wrote:
I am still inclined to think the 777-9 order is safe long-term. EK has 123 A380s that will eventually need replacement and the 777-9 is 25-30% smaller (depending on configuration). EK would have to see a massive traffic contraction on their A380 routes for a 777-9 to be "too big". And they should have a fair number of 777-300ER routes that are strong enough to support a 777-9 replacement as the seating difference will be 5% or less. Between them, they should be able to support the 115 they have on order.



It will be interesting to see if EK sticks to 7-abreast J though. The reason there is only a 25-30% difference in seating is the dense J cabin in the 77W compared to the A380. If EK also moves to the new F in the 779 you will also see a reduction in capacity, although only by 2 seats.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:49 am

enzo011 wrote:
It will be interesting to see if EK sticks to 7-abreast J though. The reason there is only a 25-30% difference in seating is the dense J cabin in the 77W compared to the A380. If EK also moves to the new F in the 779 you will also see a reduction in capacity, although only by 2 seats.
Honestly, I'd be pretty pissed off if I paid a lot of money for my J seat and was stuck in the middle of the 3 at the front of the T7, they need to do something about that because competitors are all moving to 1-2-1 from at worst and already better 2-2-2, they really risk being left out of the premium business if they dont upgrade.

Fred
Image
 
Eyad89
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:50 am

Pcoder wrote:

The issue is probably the 150 777X for the next 8-10 year period, is too much and the order needs to be amend for changes to its projected Business.


Add the huge flux of incoming A359s, A339s, and 787s.

I have no idea how the EK order book will look in the future, but I guess we will find out in the upcoming Dubai airshow.
 
mig17
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:01 am

Stitch wrote:
I am still inclined to think the 777-9 order is safe long-term.

But since EK represent half of the orderbook, if they slow down deliveries, it is the entire FAL they are slowing down.
By the way, with EK, until delivered, no order are 100% firm but huge deposits that can be converted. If the X is pushed back, nothing grants us it will be X delivered in the end.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:01 pm

Pcoder wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
EK has over 150 77Ws.

Aren't the 9X due to riplacing these on a 121 basis?


A good number of the existing 77W will still be operational in 10 years. Most orders for aircraft would be for the next 8-10 years max, as many things can change in that period.

The issue is probably the 150 777X for the next 8-10 year period, is too much and the order needs to be amend for changes to its projected Business.


The delivery rate is nil. Boeing productuion means it will take more then Tenn years to give EK all 150 777xs.

Buyers remorse for over ordering? Probably.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:22 pm

I can see EK walking away from a lot of the new orders. I think the sacrificial lamb will be the 77Ws which will be shed off lease early I think. I could also see them getting rid of all but about 30-40 of their A380s and just paying the lease penalties to send them to the desert early. We may see 6 or 7 year old A380s go for parts because of this. The 77Ws have a better chance of finding gainful employment after EK though.

I think we'll eventually see a lot of the FlyDubai routes rolled onto EK metal again and FlyDubai concentrating on the thinner routes that EK doesn't want or cant do - that means stopping the likes of Muscat, Jeddah, Baghdad, Karachi, Dammam, Kiev, Bangkok etc and moving the frequencies to EK to do with A339 or 787 metal.

OR it means that a load of the 787s or A339s on order will end up in FlyDubai livery and that their operation will expand a lot. Not sure how feasible that is to be honest.

What is clear to me is that EK has a similar issue to EY up the road and others in the MEG region as well - too much metal, not enough places to profitably fly it without trashing yields.

I think their best strategy is to go the LH way and focus on right-sizing capacity to demand rather than focusing on commonality efficiencies that may or may not be as massive as many on this site think.

30-40 A380s for long-haul trunk routes where they cannot add frequency easily but are already several daily, with robust year round premium demand - ie: LHR/JFK/SYD/CDG
80-90 77W/779X for long haul trunk routes, two class CASM monsters for low yielding routes up to four class for routes like BOS/BCN/HND/PVG
30 ULH types, 77L moving to A359 for very long haul routes.
45-55 A339/78X for regional workhorse routes, two class, very low operating costs etc.

The game then for the fleet planners is which routes can be downgraded from A388 to 779X for an improvement in RASM against a nice reduction in opex. Ditto the 77W/79X to A339/78X. There are some nice gains to be had there with solid optimisation. There is certainly also a case to bin the A359 and A339 and go with a 789/x combo which would indeed be very compelling too.

Problem is they are over-committed on these levels.
 
Vladex
Posts: 342
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:12 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
morrisond wrote:
It looks like the 787 is about midsection as well in other images.

Scroll down to the second image in this article.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/how-airli ... oeing-787/

Exactly, both the A350 and 787 can fit new higher bypass engines. Vladex is clearly incorrect.

The 787 engines are already fully in front of the wing so raising the engine is not a problem. There will be no repeat like the 737MAX where the engines had to be moved forward too.


787 engines are already raised up as much as they can be, if they go higher they will interfere with the wing air flow. Isn't that the MAX problem?
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1529
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:24 pm

Vladex wrote:
787 engines are already raised up as much as they can be, if they go higher they will interfere with the wing air flow. Isn't that the MAX problem?

No

Image

The exhaust outlet of the 787 is well below the wing.

The 737MAX is completely different the engine was also moved further forward. At high angles of attack the engine cowl created significant lift ahead of the wing and caused the nose to pitch up. The MCAS was meant to stop to nose pitching up too far and stalling the aircraft.

In the case of the 787 the current engine is fully forward of the wing so there will be very little change when the engine fan becomes larger. The flight control system is also fly by wire so any minor aerodynamic change will not need an extra safety system installed.

The 787 engine can move much higher. When looking directly from the front, the top of the 787 nacelle is only just reaching the bottom surface of the wing. On the 737MAX the top of the nacelle is nearly level with the top surface of the wing. The 787 engine could be raised by to be level with the top of the wing enough to fit massive 14:1 bypass ratio engines with ease.
 
Vladex
Posts: 342
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:00 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Vladex wrote:
787 engines are already raised up as much as they can be, if they go higher they will interfere with the wing air flow. Isn't that the MAX problem?

No

Image

The exhaust outlet of the 787 is well below the wing.

The 737MAX is completely different the engine was also moved further forward. At high angles of attack the engine cowl created significant lift ahead of the wing and caused the nose to pitch up. The MCAS was meant to stop to nose pitching up too far and stalling the aircraft.

In the case of the 787 the current engine is fully forward of the wing so there will be very little change when the engine fan becomes larger. The flight control system is also fly by wire so any minor aerodynamic change will not need an extra safety system installed.

The 787 engine can move much higher. When looking directly from the front, the top of the 787 nacelle is only just reaching the bottom surface of the wing. On the 737MAX the top of the nacelle is nearly level with the top surface of the wing. The 787 engine could be raised by to be level with the top of the wing enough to fit massive 14:1 bypass ratio engines with ease.


Again you post misleading pictures from the back instead of real front pictures that actually show the wings and engines that have impact on aerodynamics which show quiet minimal place for engine enalargement
I can give you 15,20 even 25 cm of ground clearance though I am not sure if Boeing will be risking that much like they did with MAX going the max route. BTW the initial specs of the Utlrafan are 355cm fan diameter, 15:1 BPR,70:1 pressure ratio.
Real photos of 787 show it to be quiet high attached to the wings
Image
 
morrisond
Posts: 1179
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:45 pm

Yes and the engines are above waste height - not knee height like you were implying before.

What makes you think a 787 would need the thrust from an 355cm fan Ultrafan? An Ultrafan in the 70-80,000 thrust range would not be 355cm.

There is no problem mounting the engine higher than can adjust for it in the FBW system.

How much more efficient do you think an 2025 Ultrafan will be than an 2020 GE9X? it won't be much more than 5%. The Ge9x at 105,000 Thrust is only 340cm

Give up - the 787 can take a larger fan. Other companies (or even Rolls Royce) could make a larger engine that still fits on the 787 that is just as efficient and at 787 Volumes would be a good investment.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1024
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:35 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I can see EK walking away from a lot of the new orders. I think the sacrificial lamb will be the 77Ws which will be shed off lease early I think. I could also see them getting rid of all but about 30-40 of their A380s and just paying the lease penalties to send them to the desert early. We may see 6 or 7 year old A380s go for parts because of this. The 77Ws have a better chance of finding gainful employment after EK though.

Have to look beyond the lessor/s. High percentage of funding participants on A380 leases are Dubai nationals, corporates and related parties. Early termination of leases potentially unwinds many of the benefits that attracted participation in the first place.

Early termination would be bad PR, and make it less likely to attract these same participants on new acquisitions.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2267
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:39 pm

1. The 787 can definitely take a larger fan.
2. You don't have to increase fan diameter to increase bypass ratio.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1024
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:45 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I think we'll eventually see a lot of the FlyDubai routes rolled onto EK metal again and FlyDubai concentrating on the thinner routes that EK doesn't want or cant do - that means stopping the likes of Muscat, Jeddah, Baghdad, Karachi, Dammam, Kiev, Bangkok etc and moving the frequencies to EK to do with A339 or 787 metal.

OR it means that a load of the 787s or A339s on order will end up in FlyDubai livery and that their operation will expand a lot. Not sure how feasible that is to be honest.

Current demarcation between FZ and EK is NB and WB respectively, so unless FZ goes mad with frequencies (MAX groundings have hindered that plan - standby for IAG-style announcement to avoid all eggs in one basket), or there's a total re-think, routes will migrate in both directions as each right sizes.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1024
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:54 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
What is clear to me is that EK has a similar issue to EY up the road and others in the MEG region as well - too much metal, not enough places to profitably fly it without trashing yields.

I think their best strategy is to go the LH way and focus on right-sizing capacity to demand rather than focusing on commonality efficiencies that may or may not be as massive as many on this site think.

With EK air frames and engines on maintenance plans (mandatory for WB leases and increasingly specified by financiers), commonality economies of scale pale into insignificance compared to right-sizing by the season, week, day and even within the day, especially post-CORSIA (which some countries will use as the basis for over-flying and other charges).
 
VV
Posts: 797
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:42 pm

Cerecl wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Correct me if im wrong

The strategy change is to use smaller aircrafts to operate routes currently operated by 77W (Minimum ~350 seats) and A380. Another words, a reduction of capacity on some routes. It is no longer wise to assume 777X alone will replace 77W and A380. Consequently the requirement for 777X in a future EK fleet is probably less than originally envisioned when the order was first placed. How much less will depend on the world economy and how EK likes 787/A330neo/A350 class aircrafts and the possible -neo version of 787/A350/NMA/Whatever Airbus develops to counter. This also opens the door for A350-1000 (and -ULR/Sunrise Project variant), which is now a substantially different aircraft compared to when EK first rejected it, in competition for 777-8.


What?
 
EK7777
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:59 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:07 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
EK has over 150 77Ws.

Aren't the 9X due to riplacing these on a 121 basis?


No they don't.

134 77Ws and 10 77Ls.
 
Fatbus
Posts: 32
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:14 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:34 pm

More or less a 1 to 1 replacement. The order also has flexibility built into it. At present 777 fleet growth is finished, actually decreasing .
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1400
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:17 pm

Vladex wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
morrisond wrote:
It looks like the 787 is about midsection as well in other images.

Scroll down to the second image in this article.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/how-airli ... oeing-787/

Exactly, both the A350 and 787 can fit new higher bypass engines. Vladex is clearly incorrect.

The 787 engines are already fully in front of the wing so raising the engine is not a problem. There will be no repeat like the 737MAX where the engines had to be moved forward too.


787 engines are already raised up as much as they can be, if they go higher they will interfere with the wing air flow. Isn't that the MAX problem?


Yes Boeing is so incompetent that it will be impossible to put newer engines on the 787!!
 
xwb777
Posts: 411
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:13 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:21 pm

any update in regards to the thread title?
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1529
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:59 am

Emirates will accept every last 777X it has ordered. The 777X order was placed when there was still a possibility of the A380NEO replacing the current A380's.

Now Emirates have has 120 A380's with no direct replacement. They would need 180 777-9's just to keep the same capacity. The 777-9's being the largest aircraft available will clesrly get used on the thick A380 routes. They have slot restrictions so they aren't going to replace them with 787's and cut capacity by half.

This explains why they are looking at 787's and A350's. The 777X order doesn't even cover the retiring A380's so all the 777W's need to be replaced. The 777X will clearly be the A380 replacement
 
User avatar
FrenchPotatoEye
Posts: 205
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:20 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:19 am

EK7777 wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
EK has over 150 77Ws.

Aren't the 9X due to riplacing these on a 121 basis?


No they don't.

134 77Ws and 10 77Ls.


Well duh, leases have expired on several. I will giving a jeneric figure.


RJMAZ wrote:
Emirates will accept every last 777X it has ordered. The 777X order was placed when there was still a possibility of the A380NEO replacing the current A380's.

Now Emirates have has 120 A380's with no direct replacement. They would need 180 777-9's just to keep the same capacity. The 777-9's being the largest aircraft available will clesrly get used on the thick A380 routes. They have slot restrictions so they aren't going to replace them with 787's and cut capacity by half.

This explains why they are looking at 787's and A350's. The 777X order doesn't even cover the retiring A380's so all the 777W's need to be replaced. The 777X will clearly be the A380 replacement


This is a perfect set-up. Sadly, people don't and won't get it. Grate post RJMAZ!
 
Jefford717
Posts: 24
Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:36 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:42 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Emirates will accept every last 777X it has ordered. The 777X order was placed when there was still a possibility of the A380NEO replacing the current A380's.

Now Emirates have has 120 A380's with no direct replacement. They would need 180 777-9's just to keep the same capacity. The 777-9's being the largest aircraft available will clesrly get used on the thick A380 routes. They have slot restrictions so they aren't going to replace them with 787's and cut capacity by half.

This explains why they are looking at 787's and A350's. The 777X order doesn't even cover the retiring A380's so all the 777W's need to be replaced. The 777X will clearly be the A380 replacement


Completely agreed with your statement. Emirates will need all of the 150 777x it has currently on order and possibly more. All of their A380 and probably half of it’s current 777 will be replaced by the biggest place in the market once it’s time for replacement and the 777x will be the biggest out there.
 
chiad
Posts: 1193
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:06 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Emirates will accept every last 777X it has ordered. The 777X order was placed when there was still a possibility of the A380NEO replacing the current A380's.

Now Emirates have has 120 A380's with no direct replacement. They would need 180 777-9's just to keep the same capacity. The 777-9's being the largest aircraft available will clesrly get used on the thick A380 routes. They have slot restrictions so they aren't going to replace them with 787's and cut capacity by half.

This explains why they are looking at 787's and A350's. The 777X order doesn't even cover the retiring A380's so all the 777W's need to be replaced. The 777X will clearly be the A380 replacement


I am not so sure.
The traffic growth has stopped, so has capacity growth (only 3 aircraft received so far this year vs 14 for 2018 and 21 for 2017).
Still another 11 A380's are joining the fleet in the next 2 or 3 years, and EK's fleet is rather young.
Then the A330's and A350 starts to pour in.
I think a big portion of the 777X's will be cancelled as EK contracts.
 
marcelh
Posts: 651
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:52 am

Jefford717 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Emirates will accept every last 777X it has ordered. The 777X order was placed when there was still a possibility of the A380NEO replacing the current A380's.

Now Emirates have has 120 A380's with no direct replacement. They would need 180 777-9's just to keep the same capacity. The 777-9's being the largest aircraft available will clesrly get used on the thick A380 routes. They have slot restrictions so they aren't going to replace them with 787's and cut capacity by half.

This explains why they are looking at 787's and A350's. The 777X order doesn't even cover the retiring A380's so all the 777W's need to be replaced. The 777X will clearly be the A380 replacement


Completely agreed with your statement. Emirates will need all of the 150 777x it has currently on order and possibly more. All of their A380 and probably half of it’s current 777 will be replaced by the biggest place in the market once it’s time for replacement and the 777x will be the biggest out there.

The 779 is first a 77W replacement. Although EK has too many A380, I don’t see the last gone before 2030-2035. For the forseeable future, IMHO EK will rightsize the fleet with 40-50 A380 at the top for the heavy slot-reatrictes routes, the 779/77W as the core of their fleet and the A359/B787/A339 below that. But a lot of this will depend on geo-political and economic developements and that future isn’t too bright at this moment.
 
kaitak
Posts: 9667
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:39 am

How many of the A380s and 777s are parked at DWC (or elsewhere) right now?

Are they still experiencing difficulties retaining/hiring crews?
 
EK7777
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:59 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:17 am

kaitak wrote:
How many of the A380s and 777s are parked at DWC (or elsewhere) right now?

Are they still experiencing difficulties retaining/hiring crews?
1x A380 parked at DWC, it's used occasionally for crew training.

All 777s are in service.

It's a lot better than the situation a few months ago when at least 5-7 A380s and B777 were parked.

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