xwb777
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:26 pm

As a lot have changed since the order announcement back in 2013 and the changing EK strategy, I think we might see Emirates ordering additional B777Xs beside the B787, if they do agree on a suitable delivery schedule.
From Airbus side, I feel that EK will order more A339s and cancel the A350s.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:42 pm

xwb777 wrote:
As a lot have changed since the order announcement back in 2013 and the changing EK strategy, I think we might see Emirates ordering additional B777Xs beside the B787, if they do agree on a suitable delivery schedule.
From Airbus side, I feel that EK will order more A339s and cancel the A350s.


Why would they want to renegotiate if they want to order more 777x? For what? Cheaper price?

Im sure there are no penalties for increasing their order....only if cancelling.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:37 pm

TObound wrote:
They say they aren't replacing the 380s with 777X. But their order pattern means that this is exactly what will happen as some A380s get parted out in the 2020s and the A380 fleet count starts dropping early next decade.

I think the 777X buy was genuinely aimed at replacing the 777 fleet. But events since the order has EK downsizing. There'll be just as many A380 routes downsized to a 779 as there are 77W routes upgauged to a 779. And lots of 77W routes downsized to a 78J or 359.

The 770/A35K/A359/787-10 just have too much of a fuel burn per seat and cost per seat advantage. It costs less to carry a passenger than an A388.

I see most routes down gauging over an extended period of time until DXB has a more profitable level of connections.

I see the A339 working for EK, but until I know the contract details, I will wait and see. We won't know until the Dubai airshow.

Lightsaber
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grbauc
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:08 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Qf648 wrote:
Well with p2p now the preferred mode of operation and developments that enable any city access able from any location - why would you stop in the Middle East?


It will still be cheaper to serve some markets via a single-point hub. Indeed, it will always be cheaper to serve some markets from a single point hub.



agree a mix of P2P and hub is the future. In fact I believe WN like quasi hub system will be what a lot of the world will look like.
 
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keesje
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:20 pm

seahawk wrote:
The A380 will leave the fleet quickly and they will order more 777-9s.


I'm not sure more 777x's is what is on the agenda..

I feel EK is carefull in announcing any Boeing order change. They have a long term interest in a healthy competition between A & B.

Hitting B with a significant order reduction on the slow selling, delayed 777X program, on top of the other issues, is not helping anybody at this stage.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:16 pm

lightsaber wrote:
TObound wrote:
They say they aren't replacing the 380s with 777X. But their order pattern means that this is exactly what will happen as some A380s get parted out in the 2020s and the A380 fleet count starts dropping early next decade.

I think the 777X buy was genuinely aimed at replacing the 777 fleet. But events since the order has EK downsizing. There'll be just as many A380 routes downsized to a 779 as there are 77W routes upgauged to a 779. And lots of 77W routes downsized to a 78J or 359.

The 770/A35K/A359/787-10 just have too much of a fuel burn per seat and cost per seat advantage. It costs less to carry a passenger than an A388.

I see most routes down gauging over an extended period of time until DXB has a more profitable level of connections.

I see the A339 working for EK, but until I know the contract details, I will wait and see. We won't know until the Dubai airshow.

Lightsaber


As has been proven time and time again, that is an opinion, gossip, fake news, not a fact.

In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not.
Of course if you compare a 379 seat SQ A380 against a 478 seat AF B77W, we can also compare a flying cow against an ants' nest.
We can also compare an 868 seat A388 against a 212 seat NH B77W. How would that work out?

The twins can't compete on CASM, but the A380's challenge is not the cost, but revenue and yield management.
You can't run an A380 revenue management with the same strategy as a B77X.
As an example, the amount of space that airlines are wasting on the A380 is just appaling, all of that is lost revenue and lost opportunity cost. You don't see airlines wasting an inch of space on their B777 or B787 fleets.

EK's problem is not the A380, but Chinese carriers starting to dump capacity into the market.
In particular, China Eastern and China Southern are starting to offer ultra-competitive fares on Asia to Europe routes. It doesn't look like much but 20-30 seats lost on a B77W can flip the balance very quickly.

It's realistic to see EK replacing a part of the A388 fleet by B777X, the same way the B77W is being downsized to A339/A359.

The problem is that EK won't be replacing its entire A388 fleet by B777X, so they have hugely over-ordered B777X's and will be forced to upgrade some B77W routes to B779 even if it results in excess capacity, or try to increase frequencies, or try to use contractual delay clauses to opt out of as many orders as possible.

If the B777X is delayed more than 2 years, the question will be how much of the original order will be left. 40-50 copies perhaps?
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:28 pm

olle wrote:
The problem seems to be

Ek do they want to get again in a situation where a program majorly rely on them?

777x seems to become the replacement of 380. But for this they need them later. Boeing need to produce them now.

Airlines seem very eager to get rid of the A380.
 
musman9853
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:52 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
If EK for some reason do not firm the 330 / 350 deal, they will owe Airbus and RR a lot of cash instead for the cancelled 380s.

I expect it will be firmed at Dubai air show - maybe with some changes from the announced LoI.


Maybe you're right...quite maddening the silence coming from all ME3 carriers. Not even one twitch from any of them as to the delay in 1st flight.

Usually Al Baker is screaming to the rafters on any slip up on his aircraft orders. Quite noticeable he hasn't uttered one word!


He must be thrilled at the delays. He gets his planes later and probably some kind of penalty from Boeing/GE
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:48 am

This is the problem with ordering 100s of new planes years in advance of their launch - there is a lot of slip between the cup and the lip and the manufacturer can be assured that the order will never proceed as initially stated.
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:28 am

Some 60 years ago companies were all wanting to do 5 year plans. (was it Mao who inspired them - LOL). A couple decades later reality again struck and it was realized that no one can predict, nor control, the future. But planning still had to be done. Airlines and manufacturers seem to have struck a bargain. Airlines will order planes years in the future, and manufacturers will attempt to produce them. (slips occur on both sides). But not only does each model have its variants, but A and B each have a few models. Airlines are somewhat free to speed up or delay deliveries, reassign those orders to other variants or models, or sometimes just mutually agree to call the whole thing off.
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:09 am

lightsaber wrote:
TObound wrote:
They say they aren't replacing the 380s with 777X. But their order pattern means that this is exactly what will happen as some A380s get parted out in the 2020s and the A380 fleet count starts dropping early next decade.

I think the 777X buy was genuinely aimed at replacing the 777 fleet. But events since the order has EK downsizing. There'll be just as many A380 routes downsized to a 779 as there are 77W routes upgauged to a 779. And lots of 77W routes downsized to a 78J or 359.

The 770/A35K/A359/787-10 just have too much of a fuel burn per seat and cost per seat advantage. It costs less to carry a passenger than an A388.

I see most routes down gauging over an extended period of time until DXB has a more profitable level of connections.

I see the A339 working for EK, but until I know the contract details, I will wait and see. We won't know until the Dubai airshow.

Lightsaber


The A339 is probably the type I worry the least about in their order book. The A330 worked for them for a long time and the capacity is on the small end of the widebody spectrum. In addition they could even think about a 9 abreast basic economy on routes to Asia and Africa or low yielding destinations in Europe. It is the right type to use as a workhorse to less developed airports and low yielding destinations.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:36 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
TObound wrote:
They say they aren't replacing the 380s with 777X. But their order pattern means that this is exactly what will happen as some A380s get parted out in the 2020s and the A380 fleet count starts dropping early next decade.

I think the 777X buy was genuinely aimed at replacing the 777 fleet. But events since the order has EK downsizing. There'll be just as many A380 routes downsized to a 779 as there are 77W routes upgauged to a 779. And lots of 77W routes downsized to a 78J or 359.

The 770/A35K/A359/787-10 just have too much of a fuel burn per seat and cost per seat advantage. It costs less to carry a passenger than an A388.

I see most routes down gauging over an extended period of time until DXB has a more profitable level of connections.

I see the A339 working for EK, but until I know the contract details, I will wait and see. We won't know until the Dubai airshow.

Lightsaber


As has been proven time and time again, that is an opinion, gossip, fake news, not a fact.

In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not.
Of course if you compare a 379 seat SQ A380 against a 478 seat AF B77W, we can also compare a flying cow against an ants' nest.
We can also compare an 868 seat A388 against a 212 seat NH B77W. How would that work out?

The twins can't compete on CASM, but the A380's challenge is not the cost, but revenue and yield management.
You can't run an A380 revenue management with the same strategy as a B77X.
As an example, the amount of space that airlines are wasting on the A380 is just appaling, all of that is lost revenue and lost opportunity cost. You don't see airlines wasting an inch of space on their B777 or B787 fleets.

EK's problem is not the A380, but Chinese carriers starting to dump capacity into the market.
In particular, China Eastern and China Southern are starting to offer ultra-competitive fares on Asia to Europe routes. It doesn't look like much but 20-30 seats lost on a B77W can flip the balance very quickly.

It's realistic to see EK replacing a part of the A388 fleet by B777X, the same way the B77W is being downsized to A339/A359.

The problem is that EK won't be replacing its entire A388 fleet by B777X, so they have hugely over-ordered B777X's and will be forced to upgrade some B77W routes to B779 even if it results in excess capacity, or try to increase frequencies, or try to use contractual delay clauses to opt out of as many orders as possible.

If the B777X is delayed more than 2 years, the question will be how much of the original order will be left. 40-50 copies perhaps?


:checkmark: :bigthumbsup:

Well written!
 
VV
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:24 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
...

In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not.
...


No. Sorry, but no.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:02 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:

In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not.


If that was true, then why did EK order any 77X?

Also, if that was true, why did Airbus spended years to attract the business to A380neo and A380-Plus?

Those never happened and 77X did. EK pusht hard for neo-A380. It didn't happend. This is also why Airbus decide to end project in 2021 and engine makers pw + ge said no further fuel burn improvements for Gp7200 engine.

We must admit ge9X has better fuel burn. This may be why EK goes with the 77x. But no, A380 doesn't having the lower casm at all otherwise A380 would still be in New neo model, but it isn't.
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:25 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not.


If that was true, then why did EK order any 77X?

Also, if that was true, why did Airbus spended years to attract the business to A380neo and A380-Plus?

Those never happened and 77X did. EK pusht hard for neo-A380. It didn't happend. This is also why Airbus decide to end project in 2021 and engine makers pw + ge said no further fuel burn improvements for Gp7200 engine.

We must admit ge9X has better fuel burn. This may be why EK goes with the 77x. But no, A380 doesn't having the lower casm at all otherwise A380 would still be in New neo model, but it isn't.


Read his post again because he explained why. CASM and fuel burn are just two parameters out of many that are considered when buying a jet.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:13 am

AsiaTravel wrote:

Read his post again because he explained why. CASM and fuel burn are just two parameters out of many that are considered when buying a jet.


I read just fine. Of the many parameters, EK still went with 77X.

(Apologies for language, I have linguistic / dyslexia issues).
 
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enzo011
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:25 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:

Read his post again because he explained why. CASM and fuel burn are just two parameters out of many that are considered when buying a jet.


I read just fine. Of the many parameters, EK still went with 77X.

(Apologies for language, I have linguistic / dyslexia issues).


At the same seating density. You cannot compare the 77W layout with the A380 in EK because they have different products in J so a different seating density. If you were to compare the same you need to reduce the capacity in the 77W, or you need to increase the number of seats in the A380. Either way this is better for the numbers for the A380, but as he explained the problem is you have 500 seats to sell on a flight where if you are flying a 789 you have 230-250 or so. So while the A380 would beat the 789 in terms of CASM and fuel burn per seat, if you don't fill all the seats you are out of luck and the 789 will be better.

So on the Dublin route for EK it makes sense to buy two 777X instead of one A380 as you are able to fill the aircraft with a better yield and you ensure better connectivity as people may want 2 options for departure times. You may just see instead of two 779 on the DXB-DUB route they may go A339 or A359 instead, increases the yield depending on the demand for the route. So it makes more sense to buy the smaller aircraft, unless you are able to fill the larger capacity. There are not that many routes that satisfy this for airlines to necessitate the purchase of the A380.
 
RandWkop
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:40 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not.


If that was true, then why did EK order any 77X?

Also, if that was true, why did Airbus spended years to attract the business to A380neo and A380-Plus?

Those never happened and 77X did. EK pusht hard for neo-A380. It didn't happend. This is also why Airbus decide to end project in 2021 and engine makers pw + ge said no further fuel burn improvements for Gp7200 engine.

We must admit ge9X has better fuel burn. This may be why EK goes with the 77x. But no, A380 doesn't having the lower casm at all otherwise A380 would still be in New neo model, but it isn't.


Part of the answer is that none of the engine OEMs were willing to put new generation tech into the A380 engines. If they had it is possible that the A380 would have sold in far greater numbers. It`s actually amazing that the GE9X is 2 or 3 generations ahead of the Trent 900 / GP7200, yet in the right density the A380 can still be more efficient than the 77X.
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marcelh
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:39 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not.


If that was true, then why did EK order any 77X?


Because empty seats don’t bring money in.
 
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keesje
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:41 am

VV wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
...

In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not.
...


No. Sorry, but no.


Do us the honor of explaining why you think No. Sorry, but no.. Anyone can just simplistically say that.
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olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:16 pm

My understanding of A380 neo and 777x was that EK and ME3 was infuancing design of them with long range etc. What happend is that for the A380 Airbus came in the situation that risk calculation result of investments contra benifits did not end up. After the original cancelation of A350 i understood that Airbus started to look different at ME3. When EK went to Airbus for an upgraded Airbus Airbus thought, what happens if EK cancels? Perhaps the money is better spent on other projects where the risk is spent between more customers.

Boeing agreed to EK with the 777x. LH and a few more complained about that it was too much pro EK design. They bought a few in the end, but I had the feeling it was more for a 747 replacement and to get out of its 747 commitments.

With all the discussions we have got about financing companies and A380 / 330neo and second hand market if there is not enough market I can see a similar discussion regarding 777x. What financing terms get EK and ME3 for the 777x compared to competitors get for A350?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:21 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:
Read his post again because he explained why. CASM and fuel burn are just two parameters out of many that are considered when buying a jet.

I read just fine. Of the many parameters, EK still went with 77X.

(Apologies for language, I have linguistic / dyslexia issues).

Speaking of parameters, here's a bunch, all seating in the same "standardized" density to avoid the "wasted space" issue:

Image

The article's conclusion?

Our data, and analyses by customers who have evaluated the 777-9 vs the A380 (and 747-8i), indicate a 10-abreast 777-9X has better seat mile costs then the much larger, current A380 and the 747-8i.

Ref: https://leehamnews.com/2014/02/03/updat ... -involved/

It also recommended that Airbus do an A380neo based on either TXWB or GEnX technology, which never happened because of the "empty seats make no money" problem.

The chart shows A380 is 50% bigger than 77W in 9 abreast config and 33% bigger than 777X in 10 abreast config so we see why no one runs A380 at its maxed out configuration: it would drive yields down too much.

Next, consider that A380s wing is at least one generation behind 777x and its engines are two generations behind GE9x, and should be clear that 777x is a far more advanced airplane and the fuel burn per seat shown in the chart for A380 is 15% more than 777x which reflects these advances.

The larger plane needs to have better fuel burn per seat not worse, so we can see why A380 stopped selling.

The fact that no one other than EK was interested in an A380neo suggests there just are not many routes that can support an A380 at all.

Now EK finds itself flying huge aircraft that burn 15% more fuel per seat than other planes and whose maintenance costs are only going to be rising as the production line closes and other operators retire their fleets.

I think the end for A380 will come much sooner than many on this thread are suggesting.

A380 will have to go, or it will take EK down with it.

musman9853 wrote:
He must be thrilled at the delays. He gets his planes later and probably some kind of penalty from Boeing/GE

Pre-launch orders don't get much protection from delays.
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FlyingVan
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:53 pm

I come on this thread once in a while to find info about "Emirates renegotiating 777X order" and what am I reading? How A380 is better or worse or who knows what else. Some people just can't let it go. How about Emirates and their 777X order?
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:15 pm

FlyingVan wrote:
I come on this thread once in a while to find info about "Emirates renegotiating 777X order" and what am I reading? How A380 is better or worse or who knows what else. Some people just can't let it go. How about Emirates and their 777X order?

How about it?

Since there is no actual new EK 777X news, older topics get rehashed, including how much or little EK needs 777X, which in turn triggers a discussion of what role A380 has in its fleet going forward, along with A330neo/A350/B87/NMA/etc.

That is the nature of things here.

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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:24 pm

olle wrote:
My understanding of A380 neo and 777x was that EK and ME3 was infuancing design of them with long range etc. What happend is that for the A380 Airbus came in the situation that risk calculation result of investments contra benifits did not end up. After the original cancelation of A350 i understood that Airbus started to look different at ME3. When EK went to Airbus for an upgraded Airbus Airbus thought, what happens if EK cancels? Perhaps the money is better spent on other projects where the risk is spent between more customers.

Boeing agreed to EK with the 777x. LH and a few more complained about that it was too much pro EK design. They bought a few in the end, but I had the feeling it was more for a 747 replacement and to get out of its 747 commitments.

You may note that LH did not take up a few A380 it had on order, and it's also announced that it will be selling some A380s back to Airbus, so it's not just 747 commitments it wants to get out from under.

777x offers far better burn per seat than A380 or 747 while still providing great payload/range.

The 777x order book includes LH, EY, CX, EK, QR, ANA, SQ, and BA, a large slice of the world's blue-chip international airlines.

It's far from a ME3 only product.

Many of these customers already have A350 in their fleets, which shows 777x and A350 coexist quite well.

As the unwinding of the A380 continues, more 777x orders will come.
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Scotron12
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:34 pm

Maybe that's why EK are re-evaluating their 777x orders...they don't want to be stuck with so many while more nimble frames pass them by?
 
mig17
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:35 pm

FlyingVan wrote:
How about Emirates and their 777X order?

Wait and see, the Dubai Airshow is coming and will give us clues about the futur of this order. Either EK and Boeing will announce they have find an agreement and EK is taking all of them (maybe minus the -8 or with -8 converted to -9) or even more. Or, they will say nothing and that smells like a sizable reduction of the 777-X order with conversions to 787.

Of course they can also announce those conversions directly but like someone pointed out before, it may not be the right timing to do so from Boeing perspective.
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Noshow
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:11 pm

How will EK finance their 777X? Like the A380 with financial leases from investors? And for 12 years again?
 
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keesje
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:24 pm

I think comparing the 777X and A380 both at 10 abreast is an interesting choice. Also not including A380 bar space on a 777x.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
xwb777
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:54 pm

I read somewhere that EK B779s will be featuring an onboard bar. No shower will be installed. I will provide the source once I find it.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:45 pm

I should note that AF has decided to retire their A380's but no mention of the 777's. The choice of which planes to be retired tells the story which plane is more profitable. Airlines are still taking up new 77W's and both A330 and B77W lease rates are generally flat but adequate. The A380 2nd hand market looks dismal.

EK in a few years will be facing how many of the A380's and B77W to retire. EK's actions will show which plane is more profitable. Obviously the 777x outside of purchase cost will be much better than the 77W. Their actions already have shown they do not want more 380s but will take those already in the pipeline. I personally see the big factor with EK is the GE vs RR engines. They have been rather quiet about both GE and EA engines, quite vocal about RR.

I see the scope of EK's current order staying constant, but the deliveries stretched out further. Yes, they finally are seeing the need for a smaller aircraft than the 77W.
 
VV
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:58 pm

keesje wrote:
VV wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
...

In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not.
...


No. Sorry, but no.


Do us the honor of explaining why you think No. Sorry, but no.. Anyone can just simplistically say that.


No.

You need to ask for an explanation on how he got to his conclusion to the guy who said, "In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not."

It is so absurd.
 
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keesje
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:46 pm

VV wrote:
keesje wrote:
VV wrote:

No. Sorry, but no.


Do us the honor of explaining why you think No. Sorry, but no.. Anyone can just simplistically say that.


No.

You need to ask for an explanation on how he got to his conclusion to the guy who said, "In the same seating density, the A388 has a lower CASM and fuel burn per seat of any new generation twin, including the B777X whether you like it or not."

It is so absurd.


No.

Just qualifying something as absurb without any substantiation doesn't add anything useful.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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PW100
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:48 pm

Revelation wrote:
Speaking of parameters, here's a bunch, all seating in the same "standardized" density to avoid the "wasted space" issue:
Image

The article's conclusion?


Why bring up a very skewed m2/seat, when the guy specifically said the same seating density?

The A380 in that chart has something like 14% more space per seat than the -9X. I'm sure one or two percent would be lost due the side wall curvature of the upperdeck, but that nowhere near accounts for the difference in seat density.
BTW, I'm equally sure that the A380 could go 11-abreat on the main deck, with similar seat comfort as -9X. There's a lot of potential left in the A380, hidden in those figures.

And yes, I do realize that reconfiguring it is probably as expensive as buying brand new -9X.
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kimimm19
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:44 pm

Revelation wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:

Speaking of parameters, here's a bunch, all seating in the same "standardized" density to avoid the "wasted space" issue:




Those metrics evoke two main concerns:
1. The 777X is only 8% more efficient per seat...
2. The 77W is already extremely cramped and claustrophobic (with the exception of a very few airlines). Yet the 77X would be significantly more cramped feeling.
 
VV
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:50 pm

You know the A380 production stops in 2021, don't you?
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:02 pm

PW100 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Speaking of parameters, here's a bunch, all seating in the same "standardized" density to avoid the "wasted space" issue:
Image

The article's conclusion?


Why bring up a very skewed m2/seat, when the guy specifically said the same seating density?

The A380 in that chart has something like 14% more space per seat than the -9X. I'm sure one or two percent would be lost due the side wall curvature of the upperdeck, but that nowhere near accounts for the difference in seat density.
BTW, I'm equally sure that the A380 could go 11-abreat on the main deck, with similar seat comfort as -9X. There's a lot of potential left in the A380, hidden in those figures.

And yes, I do realize that reconfiguring it is probably as expensive as buying brand new -9X.


It seems pretty weird that the -9X consumes 6-7% more trip fuel than the 300ER with the same MTOW given the Engines are supposedly 10%+ more efficient and the wing should be better in cruise and get to the higher levels sooner.

The A380 could just have a lot of wasted space in the cabin that can't be used for seats. The stairs would take up a lot of real estate along with the above mentioned curved sidewalls up top. It looks like the difference is only about 12-13% as well - not 14%.

You can't discount the revenue from the extra LD3's either - the 9X has 19 more free than the A380 - that's a lot.
 
TranscendZac
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:10 pm

kimimm19 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:



Those metrics evoke two main concerns:
1. The 777X is only 8% more efficient per seat...
2. The 77W is already extremely cramped and claustrophobic (with the exception of a very few airlines). Yet the 77X would be significantly more cramped feeling.

1. If Emirates can actually use all 525 seats most of the time, then they will be able to fill all 395 seats in the 77X all the time, so that 8% is probably quite conservative. And if the 77X wing proves to be more efficient than promised like the 787's wing, then that gap grows even further.
2. The 777X series has a 4" sider cabin due to reconfiguration of the interior/walls so it will not be as cramped as the 10 abreast 77W.
Zac
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:40 pm

PW100 wrote:
Why bring up a very skewed m2/seat, when the guy specifically said the same seating density?

The A380 in that chart has something like 14% more space per seat than the -9X. I'm sure one or two percent would be lost due the side wall curvature of the upperdeck, but that nowhere near accounts for the difference in seat density.

Seats are the same with regard to size and pitch:

To ensure an apples-to-apples comparison we have equipped all aircraft with the same three-class cabin with a standard seating consisting of first class at 81’’ pitch, business class at 60’’ pitch and economy class with 32’’ pitch. Seat widths are 37’’, 22’’ and 18’ respectively and the ratios of the different premium seatings vs. economy are kept the same.

I would imagine the 'skewed' m2 comes from all the wastage A380 has from wall curvature, staircases, etc.

PW100 wrote:
BTW, I'm equally sure that the A380 could go 11-abreat on the main deck, with similar seat comfort as -9X. There's a lot of potential left in the A380, hidden in those figures.

Not very operative if no one can figure out how to make money doing so, meanwhile lots of airlines are making money with 10x 77W so 10x 779 will be an easy idea to sell.
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:53 pm

keesje wrote:
I think comparing the 777X and A380 both at 10 abreast is an interesting choice.


Both are designed around 10-abreast standard configurations.


PW100 wrote:
Why bring up a very skewed m2/seat, when the guy specifically said the same seating density?


Trick is you probably can't do that since the cabin dimensions of the frames are physically different and that will impact how seats and galleys/lavatories/closets are placed. Leeham tries to eliminate as many variables as possible (common seat design, common seats per row, common percentage of seats per class of service) which is why the "spread" is as close as it is.


PW100 wrote:
The A380 in that chart has something like 14% more space per seat than the -9X. I'm sure one or two percent would be lost due the side wall curvature of the upperdeck, but that nowhere near accounts for the difference in seat density.


Have you taken actual physical floorplans for both types with actual seat and other cabin fixture dimensions and configured the two? If you have not, it might be dangerous to claim that the numbers Leehamn.net came up with are significantly off-base since they did do the work.

PW100 wrote:
I'm equally sure that the A380 could go 11-abreat on the main deck, with similar seat comfort as -9X. There's a lot of potential left in the A380, hidden in those figures.


Airbus started talking up 11-abreast on the A380 once the world's 777-300ER fleet mostly went from 9-abreast to 10-abreast, improving the 777W's competitiveness on a seat-cost basis. Nobody took them up on it.


morrisond wrote:
It seems pretty weird that the -9X consumes 6-7% more trip fuel than the 300ER with the same MTOW given the Engines are supposedly 10%+ more efficient and the wing should be better in cruise and get to the higher levels sooner.


The 777-9's structural weight is some 20,000kg higher, so as the plane burns fuel, that extra structural weight impacts fuel burn.
 
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PW100
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:54 pm

Revelation wrote:
PW100 wrote:
. . .

Seats are the same with regard to size and pitch:

I would imagine the 'skewed' m2 comes from all the wastage A380 has from wall curvature, staircases, etc.

Not very operative if no one can figure out how to make money doing so, meanwhile lots of airlines are making money with 10x 77W so 10x 779 will be an easy idea to sell.


Not disputing any of that, just pointing out that the graph is by no means showing the same seating density, which was what subject poster submitted.

I have no doubt that an equally dense A380 cabin would offer a fairly comparable CASM compared to the 77X. Equally, I have no doubt that to make such happen, investment risk would be significant for Airbus. And would also require a major redesign of their production system. Further, a new generation engine would be required, as well as a new wing (agree with the poster who went through great length showing that). All in all investment would be huge, for a limited market. I can certainly understand the rational approach Airbus took here.
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kimimm19
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:05 pm

TranscendZac wrote:
kimimm19 wrote:
Revelation wrote:



Those metrics evoke two main concerns:
1. The 777X is only 8% more efficient per seat...
2. The 77W is already extremely cramped and claustrophobic (with the exception of a very few airlines). Yet the 77X would be significantly more cramped feeling.

1. If Emirates can actually use all 525 seats most of the time, then they will be able to fill all 395 seats in the 77X all the time, so that 8% is probably quite conservative. And if the 77X wing proves to be more efficient than promised like the 787's wing, then that gap grows even further.
2. The 777X series has a 4" sider cabin due to reconfiguration of the interior/walls so it will not be as cramped as the 10 abreast 77W.



1. But would that really equate to the (was it) 13% advantage that was promised over the 777X?
2. Although a wider cabin will help, it will still feel cramped, especially if the newer a350s seem cramped, when it's all said and done with number of seats, high premium vs high economy, separation of cabins, and pitch.
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:33 pm

This is probably so that they can add another 100 A380s.
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:22 am

PW100 wrote:
I have no doubt that an equally dense A380 cabin would offer a fairly comparable CASM compared to the 77X. Equally, I have no doubt that to make such happen, investment risk would be significant for Airbus. And would also require a major redesign of their production system. Further, a new generation engine would be required, as well as a new wing (agree with the poster who went through great length showing that). All in all investment would be huge, for a limited market. I can certainly understand the rational approach Airbus took here.

Yes, terminating the program was a rational decision since the cost would exceed the benefit.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:26 am

Regarding the A380, the last thing that would make it more popular is more seats. The A380 does not have a CASM problem when full, it has a revenue / yield management problem when full.
 
VV
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:49 am

seahawk wrote:
Regarding the A380, the last thing that would make it more popular is more seats. The A380 does not have a CASM problem when full, it has a revenue / yield management problem when full.


How popular can it be if the production stops in 2021?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:43 pm

The A380 did have the best CASM when it entered service if you compare with similar seating density.

The problem was that passengers preferred frequency. A daily 787 flight is much better than 3-4 A380 flights a week. Two 787 flights a day is also preferred over a single A380 flight per day.

The A380 was meant to work at slot restricted airports like LHR but Gatwick created more slots allowing smaller widebodies to be used.

The A380 isn't even that space efficient it has 550m2 of cabin area with an empty weight of 277T.

A 787-9 and A350-900 combined has exactly 555m2 cabin area and weighs 271T combined. The combined MTOW is also 40T less than the A380. That is slightly more cabin area and less weight than the A380 despite that the twin deck design should be very space efficient.

The 777-9 will have excellent CASM. It will easily beat the A380 with similar density. I do expect the bulk of the future sales to centred around the 787 size. With the A380 ending production it will give the 777-9 enough market to survive. Being the biggest aircraft left most A380 operators will probably not want to downhauge too much and the 777-9 is the smallest downgauge.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:44 pm

The foot-dragging on this from EK starts to make more sense given the rumours surrounding the possibility of an upcoming A350-1000ULR. Taken outside of the 77X discussion the frame looks pretty compelling for EK and one would imagine they are looking seriously at replacing their 77L fleet as is and their 778X orders with the type.

With that in mind then the leap to moving away from some of their 779X commitment in favour of A350-1000ULR (if it is as good as the rumours suggest) starts to make sense.

My view is they'll centre on the 78X as their "people mover" and then have a mix of A350-1000ULR and 779X as their higher end capacity offering. I just cant see the A339 there, personally. I think the 78X didn't initially make sense as it lacked a little performance but the recent PIPs and range bumps as we saw with NZ will give it fresh impetus at EK. It will be a ridiculously efficient people mover out to about eight or nine hours. That's a MASSIVE swathe of EK's network.

It will be years and years until they get rid of all the 77Ws and A380s though.

The transition would be


773/77W - 787-10X and A350-1000ULR

77L - A350-1000ULR

A380 - A350-1000ULR and 777-9X.

Looks pretty compelling to me.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:04 pm

So we're thinking EK will convert their A350-900s to A350-1000ULRs, drop the A330-900 and re-confirm their original 787-10 MOU into a solid order?

Makes sense if we believe EK is going to contract - they will not want to open new thin long-haul flights which is where the A350-900 would have served them well. The 787-10 is the better frame than the A330-900 or A350-900 for regional missions (larger than the A330-900 and lighter than the A350-900) so it would make sense for EK to convert their 777-8 order for a 787-10 order.

The A350-1000ULR would give them the payload-range they need for the 777-8 routes with better efficiency and they can operate it in non-ULR mode for those 777-300ER routes that consistently fall on the lower side of load factors. And then they have the 777-9 for those routes that consistently fall on the higher side of load factors.
 
worldranger
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:08 pm

The above comments are valid but the 339 is most probably coming - and soon, Q3/4 2020. The only way it won’t is conversion at the air show to 351’s. Don’t see this happening as a conversion, more of an up-gauge to 359 order, if at all.

One of the voids that has needed to be plugged in the last 4-5 years since the 332’s left the fleet - is that cheap midsize twin. 77L’s wrong for nearer cities. It’s a glaring hole in their mix with FZs 738s. They also need the 321LR but without DWC - simply no room.

The Dubai airshow will probably end up as hinted by Mgt - 778 dropped for 789. The most interesting one to watch is the 351/351ULR. BA revealed that their new 351 has six less seats that their 744s yet half the fuel burn. That’s extraordinary.

If the claims by Airbus on the 351ULR are true - watch that space in the pit.

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