worldranger
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:08 pm

The above comments are valid but the 339 is most probably coming - and soon, Q3/4 2020. The only way it won’t is conversion at the air show to 351’s. Don’t see this happening as a conversion, more of an up-gauge to 359 order, if at all.

One of the voids that has needed to be plugged in the last 4-5 years since the 332’s left the fleet - is that cheap midsize twin. 77L’s wrong for nearer cities. It’s a glaring hole in their mix with FZs 738s. They also need the 321LR but without DWC - simply no room.

The Dubai airshow will probably end up as hinted by Mgt - 778 dropped for 789. The most interesting one to watch is the 351/351ULR. BA revealed that their new 351 has six less seats that their 744s yet half the fuel burn. That’s extraordinary.

If the claims by Airbus on the 351ULR are true - watch that space in the pit.
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:56 pm

Well something is happening.... We probably will wait and see ;-)
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:01 pm

With the A350 319 ton version official on offer and a 322 ton version talked about, of course the Ulh version is of course extreme but the base version with 322 tons how will this compare to the the 778x?
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:17 pm

h1fl1er wrote:

no. 350 series is too costly. EK hasn't been at all interested in this frame, and only took a handful of them because of their deposit situation with the A380. If the 380 hadn't gone through this discontinuation, EK would not have these airbus widebodies. Adding extra range via reduced payload *does not help* the business case of the aircraft for EK. the 35ku won't even remotely compete with the 77L as far as cargo goes. Again, EK took substantially more 339s, a last-generation bird, than 359s. They have not shown any particular interest in the 350 at really any point.

Adding range to the 35k doesn't make it a more attractive aircraft when it still costs too much relative to competing airframes. This is the reason for the 6 year now sales drought of this airframe.

Again, we are talking about adding range via *reduced* payload. This is what the -ULR series does. It is not free added range at the same payload. Operators of the 777 are using them for their payload capacity, frequently hauling lots of cargo, especially operators of the 77L.

The 77x tries to fit in this niche, hauling massive payload at relatively extreme ranges. The 35KU *does not* compete against the 778 in any real sense if you look at payload over those ranges. It is simply an attempt to get more payload over ULR ranges than the 359U.


Where have you heard that the A35K is too expensive?
 
StTim
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:35 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
h1fl1er wrote:

no. 350 series is too costly. EK hasn't been at all interested in this frame, and only took a handful of them because of their deposit situation with the A380. If the 380 hadn't gone through this discontinuation, EK would not have these airbus widebodies. Adding extra range via reduced payload *does not help* the business case of the aircraft for EK. the 35ku won't even remotely compete with the 77L as far as cargo goes. Again, EK took substantially more 339s, a last-generation bird, than 359s. They have not shown any particular interest in the 350 at really any point.

Adding range to the 35k doesn't make it a more attractive aircraft when it still costs too much relative to competing airframes. This is the reason for the 6 year now sales drought of this airframe.

Again, we are talking about adding range via *reduced* payload. This is what the -ULR series does. It is not free added range at the same payload. Operators of the 777 are using them for their payload capacity, frequently hauling lots of cargo, especially operators of the 77L.

The 77x tries to fit in this niche, hauling massive payload at relatively extreme ranges. The 35KU *does not* compete against the 778 in any real sense if you look at payload over those ranges. It is simply an attempt to get more payload over ULR ranges than the 359U.


Where have you heard that the A35K is too expensive?


Boeing PR department?
 
h1fl1er
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:09 pm

StTim wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Where have you heard that the A35K is too expensive?


Boeing PR department?


Leeham. 789 costs 90M to build, 359 costs 110M. The 350 is not cost competitive. The 78x is a simple stretch, the 35K is a whole nuther airplane which costs even more than the 359.

Why do you suppose the 359 has sold so poorly for 6 years and the 35K even worse?

on this issue here, with EK, the 778 and 35KU are not even competitors in any real sense. The 778 will outlift the 35K at any range. It's a substantially bigger jet. Adding 3t MTOW to the 35K and *swapping* payload for range does not make it a better business case for EK if they're not interested in the 778. They rejected the 78x because with the loads they want to haul, they'd have had a 9-10 hour plane, which wasn't adequate for them. This is a carrier that needs and uses payload lift capability. The 35K at 319t only gains 3t of additional lift...this isn't a compelling improvement.

EK is pushing out deliveries to reflect economic realities, not because they suddenly want to purchase aircraft they've shown no interest in for a decade. Again, they only have 339s and a few 359s because of the a380 situation, not because they really wanted them.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:17 pm

h1fl1er wrote:
StTim wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Where have you heard that the A35K is too expensive?


Boeing PR department?


Leeham. 789 costs 90M to build, 359 costs 110M. The 350 is not cost competitive. The 78x is a simple stretch, the 35K is a whole nuther airplane which costs even more than the 359.

Why do you suppose the 359 has sold so poorly for 6 years and the 35K even worse?

on this issue here, with EK, the 778 and 35KU are not even competitors in any real sense. The 778 will outlift the 35K at any range. It's a substantially bigger jet. Adding 3t MTOW to the 35K and *swapping* payload for range does not make it a better business case for EK if they're not interested in the 778. They rejected the 78x because with the loads they want to haul, they'd have had a 9-10 hour plane, which wasn't adequate for them. This is a carrier that needs and uses payload lift capability. The 35K at 319t only gains 3t of additional lift...this isn't a compelling improvement.

EK is pushing out deliveries to reflect economic realities, not because they suddenly want to purchase aircraft they've shown no interest in for a decade. Again, they only have 339s and a few 359s because of the a380 situation, not because they really wanted them.


The A350 is larger (more revenue potential) and more capable than the 787. It's also at an earlier stage in its life. The costs on their own don't tell the whole story, if the A350 is too expensive then it has to be for what it provides, not just because it's costlier to build (it will always be more costly as it's a larger aircraft).

The 778 is on shaky ground. There have been noises about it being built at all, or at least in the near future. An A35K with a weight increase doesn't help its cause.

The A35K is a perfectly capable lifter, it can fly 15+ hour routes quite happily. Not in the same bracket as the 78X.

You can believe that EK has no interest in the A330neo and A350 if it makes you feel better, and maybe to an extent EK would rather have kept the A380, but there were still other alternatives, including... just cancelling the order. I do feel that what you write is driven more by what you want to think than actual reality, and plenty of what you have written suggests you're not neutral or impartial on the matter.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:27 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
The A350 is larger (more revenue potential) and more capable than the 787. It's also at an earlier stage in its life. The costs on their own don't tell the whole story, if the A350 is too expensive then it has to be for what it provides, not just because it's costlier to build (it will always be more costly as it's a larger aircraft).


Yeah, right. I mean, it's not like any airline has ordered or is operating the 789 and the A359, is it? Wait... what? Oh!

Surely that suggests the A359 is bringing something to the table that outweighs the additional costs of operating both types. :scratchchin:
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:29 pm

scbriml wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
The A350 is larger (more revenue potential) and more capable than the 787. It's also at an earlier stage in its life. The costs on their own don't tell the whole story, if the A350 is too expensive then it has to be for what it provides, not just because it's costlier to build (it will always be more costly as it's a larger aircraft).


Yeah, right. I mean, it's not like any airline has ordered or is operating the 789 and the A359, is it? Wait... what? Oh!

Surely that suggests the A359 is bringing something to the table that outweighs the additional costs of operating both types. :scratchchin:


Is conspiracy.
 
RalXWB
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:30 pm

FYI Airbus sold more than 400 A350 in the period from 2013 to 2018 so please stop this nonsense that the type sold so poorly. SMH
 
B777LRF
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:33 pm

Following the suspension of A380 production at around 300 copies, roughly half of which went to EK, the real truth may very well be hidden in a simple, but poignant, question:

Does EK wish to be the owner of half the installed fleet of an aircraft type again?

EK might very well ask themselves whether the 777X will remain available 10-15 years post EIS, when they're due for replacement, or suffer the same faith as the A380.

For all intents and purposes Boeing are a bit in the same boat Airbus was with the A380, I wouldn't be surprised if LH, on the back of their experience with both the A380 and the 747-8i, might feel a bit apprehensive too.
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:38 pm

RalXWB wrote:
FYI Airbus sold more than 400 A350 in the period from 2013 to 2018 so please stop this nonsense that the type sold so poorly. SMH


Away with your facts.
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:44 pm

h1fl1er wrote:

as far as EK's interest in the 339 or 359- they had none. Zero. They would not have these aircraft if not for the sunk cost in the 380 program. It's as simple as that


Non-sens. When EK ordered the 787-10 they obviously had an offer for Airbus for a comparable airplane, or should I say airplanes. What most likely happened is that they had an interest in a 787-10/A339 airplane, they got the 787 first but Airbus got them a better offer with the A380 deposit (that I can agree on). But that doesn't mean they had no interest in the planes.
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:49 pm

With the A350 319 ton version official on offer and a 322 ton version talked about, of course the Ulh version is of course extreme but the base version with 322 tons how will this compare to the the 778x?

Everybody says here that the 778 is so much better. How much do we talk about?
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:52 pm

The romour is that the new version of A350 will be launched at the dubai show. It will be ready before 778. Who is the customer?
 
Eyad89
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:03 pm

h1fl1er wrote:


Leeham. 789 costs 90M to build, 359 costs 110M. The 350 is not cost competitive.


You know, It took Boeing 5 years to start making profit out of each 787 it delivers. A350 will reach that point sometime this year (also 5 years after EIS). In the figures you brought above, you are comparing a pretty mature production line (787 in 2019) to another that has yet to stabilize its production rate.

Even though A350 is the bigger frame, and it is expected to be more expensive, it is more appropriate to compare the production costs of A359 in 2022 to today’s 787. That’s when they both are 8 years old.

h1fl1er wrote:
Why do you suppose the 359 has sold so poorly for 6 years and the 35K even worse?


A350 sold very well in the last 6 years. It has got 235 new orders in that period. That number gets hampered by the cancellations of EK, EY, and AA ( total of 134), but their cancellations merely mean that their orders in the 2007-2010 period should not have happened. That does not change the fact that A350 got 235 NEW orders in the period that you are specifying.


h1fl1er wrote:
Again, they only have 339s and a few 359s because of the a380 situation, not because they really wanted them.


You know, it was Airbus that canceled the production line, it wasn’t like EK withdrew their order. EK paid the deposit expecting Airbus to deliver, but Airbus took the decision not to. EK was not obligated to order another type in that case.
 
dank
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:06 pm

olle wrote:
The romour is that the new version of A350 will be launched at the dubai show. It will be ready before 778. Who is the customer?


the likely guesses are Qantas, Emirates, and possibly Qatar.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:16 pm

dank wrote:
olle wrote:
The romour is that the new version of A350 will be launched at the dubai show. It will be ready before 778. Who is the customer?


the likely guesses are Qantas, Emirates, and possibly Qatar.


Why would they be interested in an A35KULR when they have 777-8s on order?

Maybe because John Ostrower is reporting that Boeing is "mothballing" 778 development? :o
https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... 77-8-777x/
With resources and energy focused on returning the 737MAX to service and getting the delayed 777X airborne and into flight testing, Boeing is freezing efforts to develop an ultra-long range follow-on to the 777-9.
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h1fl1er
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:17 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
A350 sold very well in the last 6 years. It has got 235 new orders in that period. That number gets hampered by the cancellations of EK, EY, and AA ( total of 134), but their cancellations merely mean that their orders in the 2007-2010 period should not have happened. That does not change the fact that A350 got 235 NEW orders in the period that you are specifying.


This really takes the cake...lol. An order is not a sale. This is some really fine contortionism.

2014 -32
2015 -3
2016 41
2017 36
2018 40
2019 19

The 78x has 189 net. Over the same period, the 787 family put in 432. The 330Neo, 248 net.

Only on here does 101 net orders constitute "good sales" lol, even compared to its own last-generation sibling, it is suffering.

By the same token, then, the 778 is in *great* shape, as it has all these "new" orders. And the 77x family, lots of "new" orders. Never mind cancellations, right? lol. 325 "new" orders, therefore the program is doing awesome. Bc orders are what matter, not actual orders that turn into deliveries, aka sales.
 
dank
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:20 pm

scbriml wrote:
dank wrote:
olle wrote:
The romour is that the new version of A350 will be launched at the dubai show. It will be ready before 778. Who is the customer?


the likely guesses are Qantas, Emirates, and possibly Qatar.


Why would they be interested in an A35KULR when they have 777-8s on order?

Maybe because John Ostrower is reporting that Boeing is "mothballing" 778 development? :o
https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... 77-8-777x/
With resources and energy focused on returning the 737MAX to service and getting the delayed 777X airborne and into flight testing, Boeing is freezing efforts to develop an ultra-long range follow-on to the 777-9.

Maybe that's why they aren't competitors?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:22 pm

Last edited by Revelation on Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:22 pm

scbriml wrote:
Why would they be interested in an A35KULR when they have 777-8s on order?

Maybe because John Ostrower is reporting that Boeing is "mothballing" 778 development? :o
https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... 77-8-777x/
With resources and energy focused on returning the 737MAX to service and getting the delayed 777X airborne and into flight testing, Boeing is freezing efforts to develop an ultra-long range follow-on to the 777-9.

Hard to see why Boeing would put 778 development on ice if they were still in contention for the QF Sunrise order. So QF are signalling they will go for the A35K? That would explain the A35KULR story from yesterday.
 
Eyad89
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:19 am

h1fl1er wrote:

This really takes the cake...lol. An order is not a sale. This is some really fine contortionism.

2014 -32
2015 -3
2016 41
2017 36
2018 40
2019 19


You are not getting my point.

You are using those figures as a way to gauge demand on the aircraft in that period. In that case, EY cancelling its order this year just means that its order in 2007 should not have happened. This -42 should go to 2007 orders. I am not talking about net order count, I am not talking about when Airbus modified its net order book, I am talking about how many airlines came forward and ordered A350 in that period in order to measure demand in that period, and that’s 235 orders in the 2014-2018. Cancellations of orders before or after that period is irrelevant. If EY decided to cancel its order in 2025 instead, that does not change the fact that A350 got 235 orders in the 2014-2018 period.


h1fl1er wrote:
The 78x has 189 net.



No, 78X got just 31 new orders in the 2014-2018 period.

It managed to get 100+ orders in the year it was launched (2013), but not so much after that. Is it all doom and gloom now?

Source: http://active.boeing.com/commercial/ord ... iew+Report


Orders come in cycles, why choose this 6 year perios in particular? It seems because A359 got 230 new orders in 2013 alone, and that’s bad for your argument.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:52 am

tealnz wrote:
Hard to see why Boeing would put 778 development on ice if they were still in contention for the QF Sunrise order. So QF are signalling they will go for the A35K? That would explain the A35KULR story from yesterday.


Even if they were still in contention (I have no idea, just speculation), with Etihad cancelling their order and should Emirates have signaled they will cancel theirs, as well (instead converting to more 777-9 and/or 787) then that would leave Boeing with only Qatar for 10 and Qantas for maybe another 10. I expect Boeing would not want to invest in the plane for that few orders.

Yes, there could be a 777-8 Freighter down the road, but Boeing can always re-start development for that specific model when the market conditions warrant doing so.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:47 am

With the B778 headed for the freezer, the B779 delayed, an A35JULR to be launched, the B737 MAX strangling Boeing's cash flow, I wonder if Airbus isn't moving to ambush the B777X.
If you think about it, the B777X is at the base of the dismissal of the A380, so Airbus may be smelling blood.

If Airbus plays its cards right, they could kill the B77X with a A35J/A380 combo.
Perhaps it's time to ask STC if at current fuel prices, it doesn't make more sense to get A350-1000's + A380's at the price of B777X's?

It's a long shot but EK did want those A380's until not so long ago, so who knows?
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:23 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
With the B778 headed for the freezer, the B779 delayed, an A35JULR to be launched, the B737 MAX strangling Boeing's cash flow, I wonder if Airbus isn't moving to ambush the B777X. If Airbus plays its cards right, they could kill the B77X with a A35J/A380 combo.


Well the A380-800 is no longer available for sale and the A350-1000 is a fair bit smaller than the 777-9 so Airbus doesn't have much lethality to deliver with that combo.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:27 am

EK said at the time that the 339 decision was driven partly by availability. I don't see why the 339s would be canceled.

A contraction scenario IMO is:

359 and possibly later delivery 339 all converted to 35KULR
778 + some 779 converted to 787 (probably a mix of -9 and -10, maybe just -10); enough 779 remain to replace all A380 1 for 1
Retirement of 77L as soon as 10x 35KULR arrive, earlier retirement of some 77W than planned
 
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:06 am

Or all A350s cancelled in favour of more A339s and 778 converted to 787-1000 and some 777-9 also converted to 787-1000. Drop the ultra long routes.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:17 am

What is 787-1000?

I'm not understandings?
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:33 am

RalXWB wrote:
FYI Airbus sold more than 400 A350 in the period from 2013 to 2018 so please stop this nonsense that the type sold so poorly. SMH


It hasn't sold poorly, but that's not great either. Its still pretty mediocre, the a35k more so. That's probably more a function of the 787 being so capable on the smaller end than any flaw of the a350 itself though. Same story w/ 77x
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:59 pm

Cans we stick to the discussions of Emirates 777 and not weather the 787 is loss makes?
 
Checklist787
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:05 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
What is 787-1000?

I'm not understandings?


MDR !
It's an Airbus 787-1000Neo-XWB-XULR...
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:31 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
What is 787-1000?


Most likely they are referring to the 787-10.
 
ewt340
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:54 pm

I feel like if Airbus suddenly announced A350-2000. It would kill B777X entirely.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:54 pm

ewt340 wrote:
I feel like if Airbus suddenly announced A350-2000. It would kill B777X entirely.


With a A350-1000ULR to be announced, it's not unconceivable that Airbus is eyeing an A350-1100 stretch.
B777X delays would be a very convenient reason for customers to opt out of their B777X commitments, although not all customers would be able to cancel as Boeing will juggle the delivery slots around so that some customers would not see delays in their deliveries.
 
RandWkop
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:03 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
I feel like if Airbus suddenly announced A350-2000. It would kill B777X entirely.


With a A350-1000ULR to be announced, it's not unconceivable that Airbus is eyeing an A350-1100 stretch.
B777X delays would be a very convenient reason for customers to opt out of their B777X commitments, although not all customers would be able to cancel as Boeing will juggle the delivery slots around so that some customers would not see delays in their deliveries.


If Airbus had copied the 777 fuselage width or even went slightly wider. Would they have an advantage due to composite weights?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:39 am

RandWkop wrote:
If Airbus had copied the 777 fuselage width or even went slightly wider. Would they have an advantage due to composite weights?

That would have just given the 787 an extra 1000 sales.

Long haul aircraft are getting smaller. The 787 and A350 are perfectly sized for the current market. The 777X will capitalise on the A380's demise in the short term with 400 or so sales that easily covers development. In the long run the 777X will be too big for most customers. I expect the 787NEO and a future 787-11NEO will kill the 777X entirely.

The perfect sized "sweet spot" widebody is getting smaller each year and has probably already reached the 787-8 and A330-800 as the ideal size. The 787-8 and A330-800 are far from being perfectly optimised for their size so their poor sales does not reflect market demand. In 5 years time the "sweet spot" might move towards 767-300 in capacity with no cleansheet product available to show the demand.

I expect the first manufacturer to produce a small cleansheet widebody will capture massive market share. The 797 will 100% arrive and will sell much better than expected. Airbus will follow with a small widebody. The A350 is around 5% bigger scaled up from the 787 to improve payload range slightly. I expect Airbus to scale up the 797 in a similar way to offer slightly better payload range.

I doubt Airbus will make a A350-2000. Unless the 777-9 starts to get new orders the market is reducing.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:00 am

scbriml wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
The A350 is larger (more revenue potential) and more capable than the 787. It's also at an earlier stage in its life. The costs on their own don't tell the whole story, if the A350 is too expensive then it has to be for what it provides, not just because it's costlier to build (it will always be more costly as it's a larger aircraft).


Yeah, right. I mean, it's not like any airline has ordered or is operating the 789 and the A359, is it? Wait... what? Oh!

Surely that suggests the A359 is bringing something to the table that outweighs the additional costs of operating both types. :scratchchin:

You could pretty much say the same thing about the A350 and 777x.
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ewt340
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Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:14 am

RandWkop wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
I feel like if Airbus suddenly announced A350-2000. It would kill B777X entirely.


With a A350-1000ULR to be announced, it's not unconceivable that Airbus is eyeing an A350-1100 stretch.
B777X delays would be a very convenient reason for customers to opt out of their B777X commitments, although not all customers would be able to cancel as Boeing will juggle the delivery slots around so that some customers would not see delays in their deliveries.


If Airbus had copied the 777 fuselage width or even went slightly wider. Would they have an advantage due to composite weights?


Compared to B777? Yes, it would have way bigger advantages. Compared to B787? Not really.

Airbus needs A350-900 to counter B787-9 and B787-10 (at lower end of the market). 10-abreast A350-900 wouldn't be beneficial for A350.

10-abreast A350-1000 on the other hand, would kill B777-300ER and B777X. But since many B777-300ER are still extremely young when A350-1000 enter into service, the sales wouldn't be that good until 2020 onwards.

So, 9-abreast A350 is more beneficial compared to 10-abreast A350.
 
olle
Posts: 1169
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:51 pm

What a change in this thread in 72 hours.

From A350 breathing its final breath under the unbeatable 777x and now everything only gloomy for the 777x.

As I understand it 777x still have better engines to compensate for is more heavy frame.

I am sure both will have a life.
 
9Patch
Posts: 341
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:35 pm

olle wrote:
What a change in this thread in 72 hours.

From A350 breathing its final breath under the unbeatable 777x and now everything only gloomy for the 777x.

I went back and reviewed the posts from the last 72 hours and did not find where anyone said the A350 was breathing its final breath under the unbeatable 777x, or anything even close.

Can you provide a quote or tell us the post number so we can see for ourselves, or did you make it up?
 
majano
Posts: 144
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:52 pm

9Patch wrote:
olle wrote:
What a change in this thread in 72 hours.

From A350 breathing its final breath under the unbeatable 777x and now everything only gloomy for the 777x.

I went back and reviewed the posts from the last 72 hours and did not find where anyone said the A350 was breathing its final breath under the unbeatable 777x, or anything even close.

Can you provide a quote or tell us the post number so we can see for ourselves, or did you make it up?

Not sure if we remain on topic and I apologise to the mods if not. You stoked my curiosity and I also went back to have a look. His /her choice of words is over the top, but there are plenty of posts in the past 72 hours and beyond praising the 777x and its superiority over the A350. Some include graphics from Leeham dating back a few years. As I said, apologies to the mods for taking the bait.
 
9Patch
Posts: 341
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:08 am

majano wrote:
9Patch wrote:

Can you provide a quote or tell us the post number so we can see for ourselves, or did you make it up?

Not sure if we remain on topic and I apologise to the mods if not. You stoked my curiosity and I also went back to have a look. His /her choice of words is over the top, but there are plenty of posts in the past 72 hours and beyond praising the 777x and its superiority over the A350. Some include graphics from Leeham dating back a few years. As I said, apologies to the mods for taking the bait.

Um, the Leeham graphs compare the 777-300ER, A380-800, 748-8i [sic], and 777-9X. No mention of the A350 at all.
 
majano
Posts: 144
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:26 am

9Patch wrote:
majano wrote:
9Patch wrote:

Can you provide a quote or tell us the post number so we can see for ourselves, or did you make it up?

Not sure if we remain on topic and I apologise to the mods if not. You stoked my curiosity and I also went back to have a look. His /her choice of words is over the top, but there are plenty of posts in the past 72 hours and beyond praising the 777x and its superiority over the A350. Some include graphics from Leeham dating back a few years. As I said, apologies to the mods for taking the bait.

Um, the Leeham graphs compare the 777-300ER, A380-800, 748-8i [sic], and 777-9X. No mention of the A350 at all.

I am certain you are aware that I was not referring to the Leeham article itself which is solid
 
9Patch
Posts: 341
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:34 pm

majano wrote:
9Patch wrote:
majano wrote:
Not sure if we remain on topic and I apologise to the mods if not. You stoked my curiosity and I also went back to have a look. His /her choice of words is over the top, but there are plenty of posts in the past 72 hours and beyond praising the 777x and its superiority over the A350. Some include graphics from Leeham dating back a few years. As I said, apologies to the mods for taking the bait.

Um, the Leeham graphs compare the 777-300ER, A380-800, 748-8i [sic], and 777-9X. No mention of the A350 at all.

I am certain you are aware that I was not referring to the Leeham article itself which is solid

So are you saying the article is solid but the graphics are not?
I'm not certain why you brought the Leeham article and graphics into the discussion since they have little to do with the A350.
The article was about updating the A380 and says nothing about the superiority of the 777x over the A350.
Nor did the comments by a.net members to the article and graphics.
 
olle
Posts: 1169
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:18 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
olle wrote:
Coming back to my comment regarding "older" design.

1 777x is using grand fathering from 777 family. Can it use grandfathering method with only 10-20% left from 777 family?

Changing the aluminium alloy of a part shouldn't change the grandfathering. If Boeing can prove that a new metal is superior in every way then all parts can be swapped over without anything being recertified.

This results in a part having much greater life, and then the lifecycle costs are then reduced.

Boeing’s latest 777-9 will have composite wings but will sport a mostly aluminium fuselage The reason for this change is the emergence of advanced third generation aluminium-lithium (Al-Li) alloys, which are not just cheaper than both CFRP and titanium alloys, but are also lighter and stronger than previous iterations. As a result, Al-Li alloy-intensive aircraft have better fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs. Al-Li alloys are particularly suitable to any application where the strength-to-weight ratio is critical and fatigue cracking is a concern.


https://aluminiuminsider.com/aluminium- ... ight-back/

olle wrote:
My conclusion is therefore that 2019 778 is inferior to the 350-1000. In 3 years time the 350-1000 with pips will be very close to the 779.

The 777-8 can fly significantly more payload a greater distance than the A350-1000. This has been covered endlessly in the project sunrise thread. The 777-9 is the main member of the 777X family with the best CASM. The 777-9 is only fractionally heavier per passenger compared to the A350. The 777-8 is the niche aircraft and a simple shrink that is cheap to develop. This means Boeing doesnt need to sell many 777-8's to justify development. Also the freighter will be based on the 777-8.

I do think the 777X will not live up to Boeings expectations. I think it will continue at a low production rate and it will be discontinued in 15 years time with around 500 aircraft produced. The 777X will not get a single sale once the 787NEO comes out. The 777X will cover the development costs.


I do not really have sources but this is an example from a few day back ;-)

I still missing a real comperation between the latest versions of the A350 that will be delivered to the customers in 18 month when we can expect deliverance of 779 to customers and 36 month when we according to boeing can expect deliverance of the 778 to customers.
 
olle
Posts: 1169
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:22 pm

Revelation wrote:
9Patch wrote:
The resculpting only adds 4 more inches spread out over 10 seats and two aisles.
Emirates currently has 17-inch seats in their 10x 777s according to SeatGuru.
They might be able to bump that up to 17.4 inches.
18-inch wide seats would result in very narrow aisles.
In some 777s configs Emirates offers 33-34 inch pitch which would offset some of the discomfort of the narrower seat.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/07/01/ponti ... -iag-deal/ says:

During the Airbus Innovation Days, and in other forums, officials promoted the idea of a 10-abreast coach-class in the A350 XWB.

Compared with the 10-abreast Boeing 777X, officials said the economics of the A350-1000 are unbeatable (along with other claims).

Boeing claims the 777-9 is 25% more economical on a per-seat basis than the A350-1000.

This is an unfair comparison, of course, because the -9 seats about 40 more passengers than the -1000 at nine abreast. Hence, the push for a 10-abreast A350.

Looks like Airbus feels the need to address a marketing challenge on the A350 XWB.

Maybe it will be EK's customers that feel the pinch (16.4" seats, ouch!).

Otherwise the 777-9 will have unbeatable economics.


In this the thread claims the 779 to bw a whopping 25% more efficient then the 35k. I read this as the 350k is doomed.

The source is supposed to be boeing.
 
9Patch
Posts: 341
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:40 pm

olle wrote:

In this the thread claims the 779 to bw a whopping 25% more efficient then the 35k. I read this as the 350k is doomed.

Which thread are you talking about? This thread, another a.net thread, or a Leeham article?
That's why I asked you to provide post numbers or quotes.

I agree with majano that your choice of words is "over the top."
In my opinion, this type of faux grievance and hyperbole add nothing worthwhile to the discussion.
 
olle
Posts: 1169
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 6:09 pm

https://leehamnews.com/2019/07/01/ponti ... -iag-deal/

says that;

Boeing claims the 777-9 is 25% more economical on a per-seat basis than the A350-1000.

This means that;

A: If 778 is 10% less efficient per seat it is still 15% more efficient to 351 according to the claim by boeing

or

B; if 778 == 351with similar seat count is 25% less efficient per seat then 779.

C: or if 778 less efficient then 351 is close 30% less efficient then 779.



My point here is that it could be interesting to know what is the truth? A few days ago in this thread and also the sunrise thread about quantas, a 350 could never beat a 778 less 779
 
oschkosch
Posts: 287
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 6:20 pm

olle wrote:
https://leehamnews.com/2019/07/01/pontifications-busting-the-xwb-brand-and-more-about-the-boeing-iag-deal/

says that;

Boeing claims the 777-9 is 25% more economical on a per-seat basis than the A350-1000.

This means that;

A: If 778 is 10% less efficient per seat it is still 15% more efficient to 351 according to the claim by boeing

or

B; if 778 == 351with similar seat count is 25% less efficient per seat then 779.

C: or if 778 less efficient then 351 is close 30% less efficient then 779.



My point here is that it could be interesting to know what is the truth? A few days ago in this thread and also the sunrise thread about quantas, a 350 could never beat a 778 less 779
Is economical the same as efficient?

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