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Aither
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:49 am

When trying to understand why so few 777s or larger aircraft among US operators the answer is always : "multiple hubs".
If we extend this to the rest of the world we also see the same happening. Even Africa starts to have more hubs (eg Ethiopian) challenging big megahubs. Aeroflot building another hub, Turkish of course, Beijing second airport will be a megahub, Chinese cities creating smaller hubs, former CIS countries starting to build their own hubs etc.
Add to that long haul LCCs, impact of longer range single aisle, possibly the NMA...
Even if the market is growing, the market above 350 seats could actually be declining
Never trust the obvious
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:04 am

As a side thought here....Emirates speaks of wanting to defer deliveries.

This ge9x engine problem may well be a nice delay to flight testing/delivery anyway.

Would Ge be liable to pay compensation since it was they, not Boeing who have delayed the project?
 
chiki
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:41 am

I came see 777-10 loading here with the higher thrust
https://twitter.com/StratAero/status/11 ... 38560?s=19

Sent from my SM-J415F using Tapatalk
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:44 am

chiki wrote:
I came see 777-10 loading here with the higher thrust
https://twitter.com/StratAero/status/11 ... 38560?s=19

Sent from my SM-J415F using Tapatalk


Only ek would want such a plane.

Boeing probably would not make it. Surely range would suffer?

But maybe the 150 on order could be deferred and make such a project cost viable?
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:58 am

smartplane wrote:
Search for past posts / posters comments regarding EK cancellation of A350. EK order of 777X. EK option to purchase 787. EK cancellation of A380. EK order of A330NEO/350.

Reality check one. The EK 777X order consists of tranches, only 1 of which is unconditional, and the balance conditional or options. Same for the A330NEO and A350.

Reality check two. If OEM's keep increasing the capability of current models, it erodes the attractiveness and orders for aircraft not yet even flying or certified.

Reality check three. If OEM's keep ramping up production / lowering manufacturing costs of smaller models, they become more attractive, and lower volume models less attractive.

Reality check four. Niche models are high risk, as Airbus found with the A380 and Boeing has found with the 777X.

Reality check five. Boeing has irreversibly harmed certification, something that will impact on X, despite protests to the contrary.

Reality check six. The 787 management team had a growth plan, with a bigger wing and longer fuselage. Launching the X froze those developments (though they will have been progressing with/without full Board approval).

Reality check seven. Airbus have a growth plan for the A350, A330 and A320 family. Slow A350 growth progress is constraining the two smaller models.

Reality check eight. We live in more conservative times. CEO's now prefer 'hard' performance guarantees on 'real' air frames and engines, rather than 'soft' on 'paper' planes (and in reality, so do the CEO's at aircraft and engine OEM's).

Reality check nine. The X family is under-priced. Launch prices have been even further under-priced. Just about every order (conditional and unconditional) is a Board approved launch price. The demise of the A380 was seen as the bright light on the horizon, allowing Boeing to add USD30-40m a unit. But even that twinkles on for another 2-3 years, instead of the hoped for almost immediate cancellation.

Reality check ten. Some fast, decisive action required at Boeing HQ. Boeing have already played bridesmaid when it comes to acquiring the best sub-737/A320 family. GE is for sale. Are they going to be passive or proactive? Can they afford to be proactive when the primary business strategy seems to be share price growth instead of brand protection, development and growth?

Boeing fanboys will be insulting EK, and Airbus the opposite. But pause Airbus fans, your brand is just as exposed.

This is business. This is very big business. If the X isn't the right aircraft, or the quantity isn't right, or Boeing has moved the goalposts by re-pricing the 787, then the business case for the X has changed, not only for EK, but all X customers, and all customers of A & B, because price expectations are being lowered, and capability expectations raised.


Good analysis smartplane. Interesting, you departed from your usual way of diplomatic hints to straight to the point. What do you think the 777X production rate would be? 12/year? What would the reaction from Washington state if the production rate is so low?
 
MCTSET
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:24 pm

Lots of people talking about picking up the 789, but is there any production slots available midterm.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:41 pm

MCTSET wrote:
Lots of people talking about picking up the 789, but is there any production slots available midterm.


With the rate increase I would think there ought to be frames available sometime in 2021.

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Only ek would want such a plane.


Depends on the range. Assuming the stretch costs about 8t of empty weight you're cutting off an hour and a half of range from the 777-9, which appears to be a 15-16 hour airplane in the real world. If you can bring most or all of that back through efficiency improvements (GE9x PIP? aero?) and/or a MTOW increase (the same one being developed for the 777-8 for Project Sunrise?) a 777-10X could be the most compelling VLA to date, and put some distance between the 777X and A350 on CASM. That's not a huge market but the sort of operators that have A380s or large 777-300ER fleets might be interested.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:30 pm

Interesting!

Emirates will no doubt want a strong brand icon like the A380 in 777x. Showers maybe?

Maybe the Ge engine trouble will give the 777x a delay to give emirates fleet some breathing space? Also, no reason why emirates can't swap some/all or its airbus orders for the A350-1000/ULR?

Just a thoughts.
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:29 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Search for past posts / posters comments regarding EK cancellation of A350. EK order of 777X. EK option to purchase 787. EK cancellation of A380. EK order of A330NEO/350.

Reality check one. The EK 777X order consists of tranches, only 1 of which is unconditional, and the balance conditional or options. Same for the A330NEO and A350.

Reality check two. If OEM's keep increasing the capability of current models, it erodes the attractiveness and orders for aircraft not yet even flying or certified.

Reality check three. If OEM's keep ramping up production / lowering manufacturing costs of smaller models, they become more attractive, and lower volume models less attractive.

Reality check four. Niche models are high risk, as Airbus found with the A380 and Boeing has found with the 777X.

Reality check five. Boeing has irreversibly harmed certification, something that will impact on X, despite protests to the contrary.

Reality check six. The 787 management team had a growth plan, with a bigger wing and longer fuselage. Launching the X froze those developments (though they will have been progressing with/without full Board approval).

Reality check seven. Airbus have a growth plan for the A350, A330 and A320 family. Slow A350 growth progress is constraining the two smaller models.

Reality check eight. We live in more conservative times. CEO's now prefer 'hard' performance guarantees on 'real' air frames and engines, rather than 'soft' on 'paper' planes (and in reality, so do the CEO's at aircraft and engine OEM's).

Reality check nine. The X family is under-priced. Launch prices have been even further under-priced. Just about every order (conditional and unconditional) is a Board approved launch price. The demise of the A380 was seen as the bright light on the horizon, allowing Boeing to add USD30-40m a unit. But even that twinkles on for another 2-3 years, instead of the hoped for almost immediate cancellation.

Reality check ten. Some fast, decisive action required at Boeing HQ. Boeing have already played bridesmaid when it comes to acquiring the best sub-737/A320 family. GE is for sale. Are they going to be passive or proactive? Can they afford to be proactive when the primary business strategy seems to be share price growth instead of brand protection, development and growth?

Boeing fanboys will be insulting EK, and Airbus the opposite. But pause Airbus fans, your brand is just as exposed.

This is business. This is very big business. If the X isn't the right aircraft, or the quantity isn't right, or Boeing has moved the goalposts by re-pricing the 787, then the business case for the X has changed, not only for EK, but all X customers, and all customers of A & B, because price expectations are being lowered, and capability expectations raised.


Good analysis smartplane. Interesting, you departed from your usual way of diplomatic hints to straight to the point. What do you think the 777X production rate would be? 12/year? What would the reaction from Washington state if the production rate is so low?

No idea on production rate, which presumably includes 777F for the foreseeable future.

Some customers want to defer / slow deliveries, though will shed crocodile tears regarding GE and certification delays to extract additional benefits.

Higher demand for early deliveries, which can't be met, then lull as customers anticipate new engine technology, a pick up in demand if the technology doesn't materialise, or more costs to replace the existing engines / build a NEO if the technology does appear.

The 787 family is a profit powerhouse. 2nd wing and landing gear options to support growth versions, would only cause a temporary blip. In contrast the X will barely breakeven, especially after allowing for a NEO in the late 20's.

Is the Board brave enough? How much 787 groundwork has been done for an -11 and new wing, and how quickly could it be certificated and delivered? Could X customers be persuaded to wait for new 787 models / not buy A350? Would the delay tempt Airbus to offer new A350 versions, and even an A380NEO? What impact on 777F production and costs? Could the increased 787 volume / even lower cost of production make a 783 viable? Is this the opportunity to focus on the 787, MAX and MAX replacement?
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:20 pm

smartplane wrote:
...
Is the Board brave enough? How much 787 groundwork has been done for an -11 and new wing, and how quickly could it be certificated and delivered? Could X customers be persuaded to wait for new 787 models / not buy A350? Would the delay tempt Airbus to offer new A350 versions, and even an A380NEO? What impact on 777F production and costs? Could the increased 787 volume / even lower cost of production make a 783 viable? Is this the opportunity to focus on the 787, MAX and MAX replacement?


I still can't believe BCA ignored two money-making high volume models and spent development dollars on one low-rated niche plane.
 
bob75013
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:37 pm

smartplane wrote:
Is the Board brave enough? How much 787 groundwork has been done for an -11 and new wing, and how quickly could it be certificated and delivered? Could X customers be persuaded to wait for new 787 models / not buy A350? Would the delay tempt Airbus to offer new A350 versions, [b]and even an A380NEO?[/b] What impact on 777F production and costs? Could the increased 787 volume / even lower cost of production make a 783 viable? Is this the opportunity to focus on the 787, MAX and MAX replacement?


an A380NEO ? We have a comedian in the crowd...
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:58 pm

For years smaller planes have got bigger (and more capable) and big planes have got fewer. Kind of like Moore's Law this trend continues. Most of us thought the trend would slow down with the demise of the 748/380. The new 321 and possible 797 and a looming slow down of the 777X seem part of the trend.
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claudiofalcao
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:01 pm

I think that the future will be smaller aircrafts (around 180-250 seats) with worldwide range.
Flew, as a passenger, on B727-200, 737-200/300/400, 747-300, 757-200, 767-300, 777-200, A319, A320 Ceo/Neo, A321, DC-10, MD-87, MD-11, E-190, E-195.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:46 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
For years smaller planes have got bigger (and more capable) and big planes have got fewer. Kind of like Moore's Law this trend continues. Most of us thought the trend would slow down with the demise of the 748/380. The new 321 and possible 797 and a looming slow down of the 777X seem part of the trend.

I agree the trend is continuing. There is still a market for the 779, just less than the 77W (ignore A388+748+ remaining 744). Airports that do not expand must be bypassed. I think FR proved the viability of that model.

Heck, what Metropolitan area will lack capacity in 2025. Yes, the premium airports will be impacted, but new airports at Beijing, Sydney, remove most of the concern.

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Revelation
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:34 pm

Aither wrote:
When trying to understand why so few 777s or larger aircraft among US operators the answer is always : "multiple hubs".
If we extend this to the rest of the world we also see the same happening. Even Africa starts to have more hubs (eg Ethiopian) challenging big megahubs. Aeroflot building another hub, Turkish of course, Beijing second airport will be a megahub, Chinese cities creating smaller hubs, former CIS countries starting to build their own hubs etc.
Add to that long haul LCCs, impact of longer range single aisle, possibly the NMA...
Even if the market is growing, the market above 350 seats could actually be declining

Interesting counter example: LH going with a FRA + MUC two hub set up but still ordering 779s.

bob75013 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Is the Board brave enough? How much 787 groundwork has been done for an -11 and new wing, and how quickly could it be certificated and delivered? Could X customers be persuaded to wait for new 787 models / not buy A350? Would the delay tempt Airbus to offer new A350 versions, [b]and even an A380NEO?[/b] What impact on 777F production and costs? Could the increased 787 volume / even lower cost of production make a 783 viable? Is this the opportunity to focus on the 787, MAX and MAX replacement?

an A380NEO ? We have a comedian in the crowd...

Still waiting to chuckle when Boeing finally buys GE.

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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:06 pm

smartplane wrote:
No idea on production rate, which presumably includes 777F for the foreseeable future.


The current Rate 5 is composed of Rate 3.5 for the LR777 family and Rate 1.5 for the 777X.


smartplane wrote:
The 787 family is a profit powerhouse. 2nd wing and landing gear options to support growth versions, would only cause a temporary blip. In contrast the X will barely breakeven, especially after allowing for a NEO in the late 20's.


This assumes GE and RR will both want to offer NEOs at that period. They will still be digesting the costs of the current GEnx and Trent families.


smartplane wrote:
Is the Board brave enough? How much 787 groundwork has been done for an -11 and new wing, and how quickly could it be certificated and delivered? Could X customers be persuaded to wait for new 787 models / not buy A350?What impact on 777F production and costs? Could the increased 787 volume / even lower cost of production make a 783 viable? Is this the opportunity to focus on the 787, MAX and MAX replacement?


I think the Board would be removed by Institutional Investors if they scrapped the 777X and pushed for an LR787 family.

As for the 787-3, it was doomed by it's shorter wing-span. De-rated 787-8s are the spiritual and actual successor to the 787-3.


dtw2hyd wrote:
I still can't believe BCA ignored two money-making high volume models and spent development dollars on one low-rated niche plane.


And which two models might those be?
 
justloveplanes
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:45 am

It is too early to be bearish on the sales future of the 777x. I believe the GE9x wiil be another performance overachiever based on my readings of events. As mentioned before, Cathay Pacific's CEO was very impressed at his factory visit and said he would like to order 20 more. He wont be alone. 778 seems weak, but that 77L didn't reflect badly on the 77W. 77W sales really took off after EIS.
 
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keesje
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:54 am

I think we see a fleet rationalization. EK needs the 777-9, but maybe not 100 anytime soon, the 777-8 seems a red herring now they commited to the A350 with its proven much leaner ULR capabilities.

Image

EK has the buying power to change it's mind unpunished, see A350 & 787-10 cancellations before. Everyone wants to remain friends.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:42 am

I wonder what the -1000 could do for EK?

Surely that too has a place as well in the future?
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:17 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
chiki wrote:
I came see 777-10 loading here with the higher thrust
https://twitter.com/StratAero/status/11 ... 38560?s=19

Sent from my SM-J415F using Tapatalk


Only ek would want such a plane.

Boeing probably would not make it. Surely range would suffer?

But maybe the 150 on order could be deferred and make such a project cost viable?


That is very interesting that the GE9X might be capable of a lot more thrust.

It may signal a switch from development of the 777-8 to an 777-10 - not that the -10 may need it (more thrust) due to the Monster wing and they probably can only stretch it to 80m (Could they go longer?) which is only a 3.2M stretch.

As someone mentioned above I think Boeing has thrown a lot of resources at the 779 when they saw how good the A351 was going to be.

I expect that it will be better than expected on EIS - with better Aero and lighter weight.

It would be natural for EK to want something really big to replace A380. They don't need 150 777X with the range of the -9 - that would be way overkill on there Trunk routes.

The 777-9 might be good enough to be what they base the new freighter on - no need to make a shorter Variant to base it on. You have to assume that 748 Freighter production will be done by about 2025 so a large package carrier could be very useful.

So the question is - if Boeing builds the 777-10 will they stop at 80M or will they maybe go longer? Would they be able to get a special exception on gate sizing to go longer? Do they have the Rotation angle clearance to add another few meters to maybe make it a 6-8M stretch?

The A380-1000 and Boeing 747-600 were supposed to go to 85M in length - could we see the 777X get that long with a Throttle Push so rotation angle isn't as critical (if that is an issue)?

It seems like if they decide to lengthen the 777X they might as well go as far as they can.
 
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Kindanew
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:37 pm

morrisond wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
chiki wrote:
I

So the question is - if Boeing builds the 777-10 will they stop at 80M or will they maybe go longer? Would they be able to get a special exception on gate sizing to go longer? Do they have the Rotation angle clearance to add another few meters to maybe make it a 6-8M stretch?

The A380-1000 and Boeing 747-600 were supposed to go to 85M in length - could we see the 777X get that long with a Throttle Push so rotation angle isn't as critical (if that is an issue)?

It seems like if they decide to lengthen the 777X they might as well go as far as they can.


What would be the point of going through the trouble to create folding wingtips only to create a plane which is too long?
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:39 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
chiki wrote:
I came see 777-10 loading here with the higher thrust
https://twitter.com/StratAero/status/11 ... 38560?s=19

Sent from my SM-J415F using Tapatalk


Only ek would want such a plane.

Boeing probably would not make it. Surely range would suffer?

But maybe the 150 on order could be deferred and make such a project cost viable?

Apparently SQ was interested in a 777-10 when they ordered.
https://leehamnews.com/2017/02/16/singa ... kill-a380/
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:43 pm

Kindanew wrote:
morrisond wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:


What would be the point of going through the trouble to create folding wingtips only to create a plane which is too long?

Folding wintips allow the 777x into a 77W width gate instead of taking up an A380 gate. Some of those gates have length available (e.g., corner positions).

The 80*80 box can be redefined. Most airports that accommodate the 77W can accept an 85m aircraft. Not all, but for the ones that could, why not develop an in demand aircraft? Maybe only a few opperators, maybe many.

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Chaostheory
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:49 pm

Boeing offered the -10 to us in 2017. An overall length of 80m and a 360t mtow. We considered it a stretch too far.
 
SteinarN
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:56 pm

Kindanew wrote:
morrisond wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:


What would be the point of going through the trouble to create folding wingtips only to create a plane which is too long?


What about a folding tail, or cockpit? :twisted:
 
Chaostheory
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:07 pm

Image

From Boeing's presentation to us.

Off to do the school run.

I'll post the rest later if I survive.
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:19 pm

Chaostheory wrote:
Boeing offered the -10 to us in 2017. An overall length of 80m and a 360t mtow. We considered it a stretch too far.


A 360T MTOW on the -9 assuming it comes in better then expected on Performance may give the -9 enough range to negate the need for the -8.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:17 pm

Chaostheory wrote:
Boeing offered the -10 to us in 2017. An overall length of 80m and a 360t mtow. We considered it a stretch too far.

Care to hint as to who "we" are?
 
blrsea
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:31 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Chaostheory wrote:
Boeing offered the -10 to us in 2017. An overall length of 80m and a 360t mtow. We considered it a stretch too far.

Care to hint as to who "we" are?


BA if my memory serves right
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:32 pm

morrisond wrote:
Chaostheory wrote:
Boeing offered the -10 to us in 2017. An overall length of 80m and a 360t mtow. We considered it a stretch too far.


A 360T MTOW on the -9 assuming it comes in better then expected on Performance may give the -9 enough range to negate the need for the -8.

Excluding hot/high, it just might.

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morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:18 pm

lightsaber wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Chaostheory wrote:
Boeing offered the -10 to us in 2017. An overall length of 80m and a 360t mtow. We considered it a stretch too far.


A 360T MTOW on the -9 assuming it comes in better then expected on Performance may give the -9 enough range to negate the need for the -8.

Excluding hot/high, it just might.

Lightsaber


A throttle push on the GE9X might be all that is needed to solve the Hot/Problem - if there is that much reserve left in the GE9X. That seems like a big Gap between the certified thrust of 105K and the test engine getting to 134K.

Pushing it to 110 or 115K just for the take-off roll or first 60 seconds if possible should take care of the Hot/High issue.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:55 pm

morrisond wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
morrisond wrote:

A 360T MTOW on the -9 assuming it comes in better then expected on Performance may give the -9 enough range to negate the need for the -8.

Excluding hot/high, it just might.

Lightsaber


A throttle push on the GE9X might be all that is needed to solve the Hot/Problem - if there is that much reserve left in the GE9X. That seems like a big Gap between the certified thrust of 105K and the test engine getting to 134K.

Pushing it to 110 or 115K just for the take-off roll or first 60 seconds if possible should take care of the Hot/High issue.

Do you have a link to 134k?

All engines must overspeed to 103% rpm during certification testing. For the GE-90, that resulted in 127,000lbf vs. 115,000 certified. There is no using all the thrust as the requirement is to pass an overspeed event and hold together. This show margins in the combustor, turbine, bearings, and fan.

https://www.ge.com/in/aviation/GE90-com ... ft-engines

Think of it this way, let us say a car engine was rev limited to 8,500 rpm (gas turbine or automotive). One would demonstrate 8,755 rpm to prove the engine was safe to have that limit.

But if 134,000lbf has been shown, that shows growth in thrust. Normally at 103% rpm thrust is 109% to 112% of rated thrust (again, at over speed to prove there is safety margin). So that implies a possible thrust of, at most, 120k... Hmmmm....

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morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
morrisond wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Excluding hot/high, it just might.

Lightsaber


A throttle push on the GE9X might be all that is needed to solve the Hot/Problem - if there is that much reserve left in the GE9X. That seems like a big Gap between the certified thrust of 105K and the test engine getting to 134K.

Pushing it to 110 or 115K just for the take-off roll or first 60 seconds if possible should take care of the Hot/High issue.

Do you have a link to 134k?

All engines must overspeed to 103% rpm during certification testing. For the GE-90, that resulted in 127,000lbf vs. 115,000 certified. There is no using all the thrust as the requirement is to pass an overspeed event and hold together. This show margins in the combustor, turbine, bearings, and fan.

https://www.ge.com/in/aviation/GE90-com ... ft-engines

Think of it this way, let us say a car engine was rev limited to 8,500 rpm (gas turbine or automotive). One would demonstrate 8,755 rpm to prove the engine was safe to have that limit.

But if 134,000lbf has been shown, that shows growth in thrust. Normally at 103% rpm thrust is 109% to 112% of rated thrust (again, at over speed to prove there is safety margin). So that implies a possible thrust of, at most, 120k... Hmmmm....

Lightsaber


I got the link from up above https://twitter.com/StratAero/status/11 ... 38560?s=19
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:50 pm

BTW - If Boeing is able to stretch the 777X to 85M and 360T MTOW - what kind of range could they get out of it? Similar to 781 I assume? Over time it could inch up over 7,000NM.

Interesting that an 8.2M stretch is about 320" or up to 10 more rows/100PAX all in Y assuming you don't need more bathrooms/exits. But it's a lot. 2-class that should be an additional 50-60 seats taking it into the 450-475 range and really differentiating it from the A351 (and 781).

AC would probably cram 550+ in that beast.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:21 pm

The rotation angle would become an issue for sure, no?

Service entry for the 9 looks like 2021 now, so any 10X will be several years down the line after that I guess.
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:07 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
The rotation angle would become an issue for sure, no?

Service entry for the 9 looks like 2021 now, so any 10X will be several years down the line after that I guess.


I would guess if they go this route they drop the 8 and the 10 is as simple a stretch as possible - and it seems like they have thought about it. So it would come a few years later - right when EK starts retiring a lot of A380's.

Rotation angle could be an issue - but I think they built more margin into the 9 with Wing Changes so the 9 doesn't need a tail skid even with it's longer length.

A throttle push (and going back to the tail skid) may be all that is needed to enable an 85M beast. Assuming an equal amount added fore and aft of the wing that is only about a 12' longer tail.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:52 pm

I have to believe that if Boeing confidently felt they could go to 80m (or longer) back when they were doing the initial discussions with carriers they would have because, IMO, the 777-9 needs all the length it can get to add seats to improve it's per-seat economics against the A350-1000.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:56 pm

Stitch wrote:
I have to believe that if Boeing confidently felt they could go to 80m (or longer) back when they were doing the initial discussions with carriers they would have because, IMO, the 777-9 needs all the length it can get to add seats to improve it's per-seat economics against the A350-1000.


I think it's an issue of range. EK and CX have tent-pole missions that the 777X absolutely had to be able to make with an economic payload, and the 777-9 is the maximum possible length to allow that with the current version of the GE9x. Sometime in the future when there is a GE9x PIP I think a 777-10X will become more feasible (as will a further A350 stretch in the event of a Trent XWB PIP or an Ultrafan re-engine).
 
Absynth
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:50 pm

Haven't read all posts but here's my take on this news: the renegotiation seems likely to have been kicked off by the wish of Boeing to cancel the 777-8X. Boeing will need all their resources for the NMA/NSA.

Emirates let the LOI expire as trading bargaining against a revised 777X order. I could see Boeing wanting to upsell them to the 9X while Emirates position would be along the lines "if you exchange 35 8X for 9X against no extra surcharge we'll also order those 40 787's."

They'll probably find some middle ground where Emirates takes ~140 777-9X's and 50 787's for the same price of the original orders.

If the cause of the renegotiation is not Boeing wanting to scrap the 8X it might be an attempt from Emirates to push back around 30-40 777X's in exchange for firming up that 787 order. I can't see sharper pricing as a negotiation goal since I have a hard time to see how pushing back the 777X orders would allow them to negotiate sharper pricing on the 787's. If anything, you'd be pushing them forward to get a sweeter 787 deal.

Since they are negotiating a new mix between both, I believe the 8X will be cancelled. It's Emirates their bargaining position that they still want 150 777X's (all 9X no problem!) and 40 787's (oops the LOI expired, how handy!)
Last edited by Absynth on Sat Jun 29, 2019 6:06 pm, edited 5 times in total.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:55 pm

If you want to order 40-50 787-10, you're probably going to get a sharp deal, regardless. :biggrin:

I do think Emirates may be re-thinking their 777-8 needs, especially now that they are committed to the A350-1000 and it looks like Airbus is willing to go forward with a ULR version with increased tankage leveraging the operating weight boosts they have been able to achieve. This should get them within spitting distance of the payload-range curve EK was looking at the 777-8 for to serve as an effective "starter plane" for new long-haul and ULH services that were previously done by the 777-200LR or payload-restricted 777-300ERs.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:03 pm

Stitch wrote:
If you want to order 40-50 787-10, you're probably going to get a sharp deal, regardless. :biggrin:

I do think Emirates may be re-thinking their 777-8 needs, especially now that they are committed to the A350-1000 and it looks like Airbus is willing to go forward with a ULR version with increased tankage leveraging the operating weight boosts they have been able to achieve. This should get them within spitting distance of the payload-range curve EK was looking at the 777-8 for to serve as an effective "starter plane" for new long-haul and ULH services that were previously done by the 777-200LR or payload-restricted 777-300ERs.


Minor correction. EK selecteded the a339neo and a350-900.

The -1000 is not in the LoI/commidment
 
Vladex
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:48 pm

Stitch wrote:
I have to believe that if Boeing confidently felt they could go to 80m (or longer) back when they were doing the initial discussions with carriers they would have because, IMO, the 777-9 needs all the length it can get to add seats to improve it's per-seat economics against the A350-1000.




What about filling the seats then?
 
Vladex
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:28 pm

justloveplanes wrote:
I think the difference is A) The 777x is a twin, B) it is a potent cargo hauler C) It has leadership engine tech D) Trip costs are substantially lower than an A380.

So the tech re: economics or market re: aircraft size/configuration don't parallel. Some similarities to the A380, but also fundamental differences.


A380 has way better ground clearance to put on big engine like GTF and Ultrafan and good luck doing that on any twins especially 787. Twin engines are actually maxed out for space and big engines is where all the efficiency is made nowadays so twins are actually deficient for the future even if it's not obvious to some. GE9X isn't that great either so why are you boasting?
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:01 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Minor correction. EK selecteded the a339neo and a350-900. The -1000 is not in the LoI/commidment


But it's assuredly a conversion option in the contract.


Vladex wrote:
What about filling the seats then?


Between the stretch and the space recovered from getting rid of the overwing exit doors, when compared to the 777-300ER the 74m 777-9 will offer one extra row of Business Class and one extra row of Economy Plus (14 seats) or three extra rows of Economy seats (30 seats).

An 80m 777-9 would offer on average two extra rows of Business Class (18 seats) or one row of Business Class and two rows of Premium Economy (22 seats) or two rows of Premium Economy and three rows of Economy (43 seats). So if you can "fill" a 76.5m frame, you can "fill" an 80m frame.
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:25 am

morrisond wrote:
A throttle push (and going back to the tail skid) may be all that is needed to enable an 85M beast. Assuming an equal amount added fore and aft of the wing that is only about a 12' longer tail.

If by throttle push you mean equivalent of TOGA or more for regular takeoffs, affects the engine OEM maintenance contract for the engine. A component of the variable charge, billed monthly or at end of term.
 
airzona11
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:35 am

claudiofalcao wrote:
I think that the future will be smaller aircrafts (around 180-250 seats) with worldwide range.


EK is in trouble if that is their future. They are 1-massive hub XXX-DXB-XXX.

EK is a great A and B customer, they have the power to take them both for laps and dances before finally taking planes.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:43 am

Stitch wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Minor correction. EK selecteded the a339neo and a350-900. The -1000 is not in the LoI/commidment


But it's assuredly a conversion option in the contract.


I can tell you that no such provision exists. The commitment is strictly only A350-900 and A330900neo.
 
smartplane
Posts: 977
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:52 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Stitch wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Minor correction. EK selecteded the a339neo and a350-900. The -1000 is not in the LoI/commidment


But it's assuredly a conversion option in the contract.


I can tell you that no such provision exists. The commitment is strictly only A350-900 and A330900neo.

Model hopping is covered in a side agreement, so both of you could be correct.

If privy to the detail of a still under negotiation sale / purchase agreement, you are one of 20 or less in EK, Airbus and RR, including external professionals, combined. More will have seen the template (with no detail) and / or component parts. Take care.
 
ELBOB
Posts: 293
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2015 6:56 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:04 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
For years smaller planes have got bigger (and more capable) and big planes have got fewer.


There are more 250+tonne airliners flying today than at any time in history...
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1449
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:14 am

seabosdca wrote:
Depends on the range. Assuming the stretch costs about 8t of empty weight you're cutting off an hour and a half of range from the 777-9, which appears to be a 15-16 hour airplane in the real world.

You forget about surface drag increase.

The 787-10 weighs 6,650kg more than the 787-9. The 787-9 burns 5600kg of fuel per hour. So the empty weight difference is only 70 minutes worth of fuel. At a cruise speed of 490knots it means the 787-10 range should be 600nm shorter. But in the real world the range difference is twice that. The 787-10 fuel burn per hour is around 10% higher than the 787-9.

The 777-10 would burn around 5% more fuel than the 777-10. So even a stretch to 80m would reduce range below 7000nm. I guess for the middle east it can still fly anywhere in Europe and most of Asia but the market would be small.

I think a stretch to say 85m would drop the range to around 6000nm. Boeing has a history of doing a small stretch with the 737. So 80m would actually be a good midlife upgrade to the 777-9. It would give a nice CASM boost and with a engine PIP it should maintain range above 7000nm.
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