Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:09 pm

seahawk wrote:
The number of orders the 777-9 has is surprisingly high at the moment when you consider that the 744 replacement cycle is mostly done, while the replacement cycles for the 777W and the A380 have barely started. The plane will a huge success.

In addition it is in the "why should I order now" phase of the development. You no longer get launch customer prices but can not check real life data on the performance either.


Rewinding history, back in 1994 the 777 had 147 firm orders at first flight. The 777x has more than double that. I suspect orders will continue to come in as airlines expand and replacement cycles happen.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:11 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change strategy.


Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll:

Checklist787 wrote:
Your argument is based on your own desires.


My 'desires' have nothing to do with Emirates (or you!) :roll:
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Nomadd
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:15 pm

mig17 wrote:
Murphy tells us that given the time anything possible can happened.


Uh, yeah. That's kind of what possible means. An that's not what Murphy said.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:24 pm

779 Seating, 3-class: 349 (8F + 49J + 292Y)


Or in our "how big is a breadbox" system, that a VLA is 400 passengers, a 779 is 87% of a VLA. Not terribly smaller, but definitely smaller.

Or by another definition: Airbus references a "comfortable three-class" 544-passenger configuration in their marketing material. Not quite so comfortable 64% or 2/3rds of the existing VLA.
Last edited by frmrCapCadet on Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mig17
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:27 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The number of orders the 777-9 has is surprisingly high at the moment when you consider that the 744 replacement cycle is mostly done, while the replacement cycles for the 777W and the A380 have barely started. The plane will a huge success.

In addition it is in the "why should I order now" phase of the development. You no longer get launch customer prices but can not check real life data on the performance either.


Rewinding history, back in 1994 the 777 had 147 firm orders at first flight. The 777x has more than double that. I suspect orders will continue to come in as airlines expand and replacement cycles happen.


The original 777 (200 and 300) did not sold well. Not enough range and bested by A340. It is when the 77E came online that it got really alive until the A333 slowly eat it's market. But by then 77W was the widebody king in the sky with no real opponent.
The 777-X arrives late to the party, may not be so well positionned and as already 2 capable opponent range wise, 787 and A350, one of them with almost similar payload abilities at those range ...

I don't know who will win or if they will all sale well, but the situation for the 777 isn't the same it was. The competition is real and the overall economics of each plane will be key. For now the 777-X do not have a lot of customers and the main one, half the order book is "renegotiating". I would be at least cautious before suspecting anything to optimistic.
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:28 pm

Nomadd wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Murphy tells us that given the time anything possible can happened.


Uh, yeah. That's kind of what possible means. An that's not what Murphy said.

You are right, he did not say can happen but will happen ...
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:47 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Saying the 777X is an older design (certainly with regards to fuselage) is an entirely factual and uncontroversial statement.

Four inches wider with sculpted side walls, a new window belt with bigger windows, new lighting, higher pressurization for lower cabin altitude, higher humidity, lower noise, new larger overhead bins, what parts do you find to be "older design"?

Image

Image

Ref: https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/boei ... index.html

frmrCapCadet wrote:
779 Seating, 3-class: 349 (8F + 49J + 292Y)


Or in our "how big is a breadbox" system, that a VLA is 400 passengers, a 779 is 87% of a VLA. Not terribly smaller, but definitely smaller.

Or by another definition: Airbus references a "comfortable three-class" 544-passenger configuration in their marketing material. Not quite so comfortable 64% or 2/3rds of the existing VLA.

And since the poster was drawing a comparison to A380, we should add that A380 was built with engines older than GE90-115B never mind GE9X and was scaled to enable both A380-900 and A380-800F. A380 failed because its engines weren't even state of the art at EIS and was targeted to growth markets that never emerged. 779 has state of the art engines and is only a two row stretch of 77W and fits well in to the fleets of current 77W operators.
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mig17
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 5:25 pm

Revelation wrote:
And since the poster was drawing a comparison to A380, we should add that A380 was built with engines older than GE90-115B never mind GE9X and was scaled to enable both A380-900 and A380-800F. A380 failed because its engines weren't even state of the art at EIS and was targeted to growth markets that never emerged. 779 has state of the art engines and is only a two row stretch of 77W and fits well in to the fleets of current 77W operators.


So why no A380 NEO?
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 5:26 pm

mig17 wrote:
I don't know who will win or if they will all sale well, but the situation for the 777 isn't the same it was. The competition is real and the overall economics of each plane will be key. For now the 777-X do not have a lot of customers and the main one, half the order book is "renegotiating". I would be at least cautious before suspecting anything to optimistic.

Yes, the situation will not be the same, but the investment in 777X is not the same as 777.

As for not having a lot of customers, I would again refer to the convenient list posted earlier:

keesje wrote:
Firm orders for Boeing 777X

Lufthansa.........................20
Etihad Airways.................25
Cathay Pacific..................21
Emirates.........................150
Qatar Airways..................60
All Nippon Airways...........20
Unidentified customer......10
Singapore Airlines...........20
British Airways.................18

777-8: 53
777-9: 291
Total: 344

It's a pretty good cross section of the world's blue chip airlines, all secured before first flight.

I'm not sure why we'd expect more.
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AC77X
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 5:32 pm

mig17 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
And since the poster was drawing a comparison to A380, we should add that A380 was built with engines older than GE90-115B never mind GE9X and was scaled to enable both A380-900 and A380-800F. A380 failed because its engines weren't even state of the art at EIS and was targeted to growth markets that never emerged. 779 has state of the art engines and is only a two row stretch of 77W and fits well in to the fleets of current 77W operators.


So why no A380 NEO?

Because you would have to maintain 4 engines.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:00 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

Except that T. CLARK preferred the specifications of the first iteration of the A350-1000 (before 2011)


And a lot has changed for Emirates between then and now, so what he said six years ago is pretty much irrelevant now. :roll:


A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change strategy. This is how I said that Finnair must now order Boeing's under the pretext that time has passed. Your argument is based on your own desires.

Sorry...


He's alive! We're still waiting for the source on your claim the fuselage will be CRFP.

It's rather telling you ask others to provide a source (I hope you didnt miss mine like your friend did), yet you stay mum when others ask you to do the same.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:04 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
Revelation wrote:


I think the thing that some people find the most annoying is that many blue chip airlines who also operate A350 signed up for 777X as well, long after ordering A350, and no one seems interested in more A350-1000s.


Really? A350-1000 has an identical capacity and an almost similar range to 778, now which one is selling better? How has that played out? Why are you bringing 779 into this smaller segment?

Counting the sales of 779 that has no competition in the market against a plane that is 13% smaller in capacity has no meaning.

The only thing 779 and A35K have in common is that both are the largest twin their OEMs could offer, yet each serves a different market segment. Hence, some airlines have ordered both.



a35k sales have plateaued though. in the last 3 years only like 20 have been ordered. that being said, the 778 isnt doing better, but if the 235k was so good over teh 778 you'd think more airlines would be ordering it.
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:14 pm

musman9853 wrote:
a35k sales have plateaued though. in the last 3 years only like 20 have been ordered. that being said, the 778 isnt doing better, but if the 235k was so good over teh 778 you'd think more airlines would be ordering it.

Or maybe A359 is pretty bleeping good at what it does, and 779 is pretty bleeping good at what it does, and the A35K throttle push approach or the 778 shrink approach aren't as highly valued so their market for products filling the gap in between the two is relatively weak?

As I wrote earlier, I'm not sure either A or B cares much, as long as the family as a whole is keeping the factory busy.
Last edited by Revelation on Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mig17
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:18 pm

Revelation wrote:
Yes, the situation will not be the same, but the investment in 777X is not the same as 777.


Yes, the 779 is almost as expensive to buy than the A380 was ... That is an investment.

As for the list:
Lufthansa.........................20 => said they may have ordered too many
Etihad Airways.................25 => is in deep troubles and may not take any
Cathay Pacific..................21 => never took A380 and wanted a "VLA"
Emirates.........................150 => is "renegotiating" half of the total 777-X orderbook
Qatar Airways..................60 => as clearly overordered from both A & B
All Nippon Airways...........20 => all Boeing widebody fleet ...
Unidentified customer......10 => who? is it firm?
Singapore Airlines...........20 => wanted the largest aircraft possible
British Airways.................18 => wanted the largest aircraft possible

777-8: 53 => model may be axed soon
777-9: 291 => At the exception of Cathay and ANA (even if they have some now), all customers are A380 operators who seems to have anticipated the replacement cycle ... The numbers themselves look close to the repartition of the A380 orderbook in the past, one operator "owning" the program...

So maybe add Qantas an Korean Air to the list and you'll have all the airlines who will really replace their A380 with something "as" large. The other, AF, TG, MH, OZ and CZ do not need as big. So if the 777-X niche is the VLA segment, like the A380, the current orderbook pretty much covers it.

Now, will the -X be able to compete with A350 and 787 on non VLA market segment?
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Saying the 777X is an older design (certainly with regards to fuselage) is an entirely factual and uncontroversial statement.

Four inches wider with sculpted side walls, a new window belt with bigger windows, new lighting, higher pressurisation for lower cabin altitude, higher humidity, lower noise, new larger overhead bins, what parts do you find to be "older design"?


Unless Boeing has completely redesigned the 777X with new materials, aerodynamics and such at least most of it is an older design. Sure, they've upgraded the cabin, but in the context of weight/efficiency it's still an older design than the A350 and 787.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:28 pm

mig17 wrote:
As for the list:
Lufthansa.........................20 => said they may have ordered too many


Actually they have re-committed to taking all 34 their Board approved so they now appear to feel 20 is too little.


mig17 wrote:
Etihad Airways.................25 => is in deep troubles and may not take any


For the moment, they're still committed to holding on to them.


mig17 wrote:
Cathay Pacific..................21 => never took A380 and wanted a "VLA"


Well if they want a "VLA" then that implies they intend to take all of their 777X.


mig17 wrote:
Emirates.........................150 => is "renegotiating" half of the total 777-X orderbook


And that "renegotiation" seems to be more for extending deliveries rather than cancelling them.


mig17 wrote:
All Nippon Airways...........20 => all Boeing widebody fleet ...


So was Japan Air Lines and they went with the A350-1000, instead. So clearly ANA saw a benefit to the 777-9 over the A350-1000.


mig17 wrote:
Unidentified customer......10 => who? is it firm?


If it was not firm, it would not be listed. Probably a Chinese 777-300ER operator. And if one Chinese airline wants it, then chances are others will, as well.


mig17 wrote:
Singapore Airlines...........20 => wanted the largest aircraft possible


And yet they did not order the 747-8... :scratchchin:


mig17 wrote:
British Airways.................18 => wanted the largest aircraft possible


See above (though rumor has it they did in fact intend to take the 747-8 before Airbus and RR offered them a smoking deal on there A380).


mig17 wrote:
So maybe add Qantas an Korean Air to the list and you'll have all the airlines who will really replace their A380 with something "as" large. The other, AF, TG, MH, OZ and CZ do not need as big. So if the 777-X niche is the VLA segment, like the A380, the current orderbook pretty much covers it.


Well it's niche is not the VLA segment since it is a smaller frame than the 747-8 and A380 and only slightly larger than the 777-300ER. And as the 777-300ER replacement market has yet to really start, when it does, both the "slow selling" A350-1000 and 777-9 should start seeing their sales rise strongly.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:44 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Revelation wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Saying the 777X is an older design (certainly with regards to fuselage) is an entirely factual and uncontroversial statement.

Four inches wider with sculpted side walls, a new window belt with bigger windows, new lighting, higher pressurisation for lower cabin altitude, higher humidity, lower noise, new larger overhead bins, what parts do you find to be "older design"?


Unless Boeing has completely redesigned the 777X with new materials, aerodynamics and such at least most of it is an older design. Sure, they've upgraded the cabin, but in the context of weight/efficiency it's still an older design than the A350 and 787.


Well given that the Wing and Tail sections are broad new - that's pretty well new aero. Other than the cross section and nose the rest is all new from an Aero standpoint.

Using AL-LI Skins, new frames new wing, new tail, apparently a lot of new systems and 787 Flight deck as well means not that many carryover parts pretty well close to brand new.

If they do stretch it to 85m that would probably get them to right about half way in between 777W and A380 in size.

344 Orders before entry into service (assuming 8's are turned into 9's or potential 10's) is 40.8% of the 77W total orders of 842. Not bad. Will it get to 842? I doubt it - but if they do a -10 they could get to 500-600 then add on another 200ish freighters over time and they could get close to 700-800 which would not be that bad.

With a 15 year production life that would be a nice 40-50 frames per year. I doubt it's going back to 100.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:46 pm

musman9853 wrote:


a35k sales have plateaued though. in the last 3 years only like 20 have been ordered. that being said, the 778 isnt doing better, but if the 235k was so good over teh 778 you'd think more airlines would be ordering it.



A35K has had more orders in the last 3 years than 779 and 778 combined (778 has had zero orders in the last 6 years anyways)

A35K since 2016: 41 orders ( 4 QR, 8 VS, 16 IR, 12 JX, and one for an undisclosed customer)
779 since 2016: 38 orders ( 20 SQ and 18 BA)
778 since 2014: 0 orders

Let's agree any plane larger than A359 hasn't been selling well for the last few years.

Back to my point, if an airline is interested in 415+ pax, they would be looking at 779 only. A35K with 360 pax isn't even in the same segment. That's like comparing 789 against A35K in terms of capacity.
Last edited by Eyad89 on Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:56 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Revelation wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Saying the 777X is an older design (certainly with regards to fuselage) is an entirely factual and uncontroversial statement.

Four inches wider with sculpted side walls, a new window belt with bigger windows, new lighting, higher pressurisation for lower cabin altitude, higher humidity, lower noise, new larger overhead bins, what parts do you find to be "older design"?


Unless Boeing has completely redesigned the 777X with new materials, aerodynamics and such at least most of it is an older design. Sure, they've upgraded the cabin, but in the context of weight/efficiency it's still an older design than the A350 and 787.

That's a pretty simplistic view, IMO. The most important aerodynamic elements are the wings, and they are all new on 777x. The most important elements for efficiency are the engines and they are all new on the 777x. The cabin is updated throughout as you admit. Weight comes from engines with bigger diameter that have higher bypass ratio and overall pressure ratio along with increased passenger and cargo capacity. The aircraft offers a combination of payload and range that A350 and 787 do not offer. The aircraft has a long list of blue chip airline customers before first flight. The aircraft is not an A350, 787 or A380 either, it is its own value proposition.
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
The most important elements for efficiency are the engines and they are all new on the 777x. The cabin is updated throughout as you admit. Weight comes from engines with bigger diameter that have higher bypass ratio and overall pressure ratio along with increased passenger and cargo capacity.


Improvements in fuel efficiency usually come in the following order :

1- engine TSFC improvement
2- weight reduction
3- lift to drag ratio improvement

This comes from the below equations:

Fuel consumption (fuel flow) = thrust * TSFC

needed thrust at any moment in cruise = weight / lift to drag ratio (source: equation in page 11 at http://web.mit.edu/16.00/www/Performance.pdf)

The reason why they were listed in that order is based on the industry's trend of bringing fuel savings from improvements in those areas in the past few decades.

While the heavier engine or longer span could bring fuel savings that outweigh the increased weight, that doesn't mean that a clean sheet 77X wouldn't have been significantly lighter. This is a valid point that cannot be dismissed. 77X was at least better than A330neo in terms of getting an engine that is a generation ahead of its competitors and wings that are newly designed, but its overall heavier weight is a reason why this plane wouldn't be competitive after 2030 IMO.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:33 pm

morrisond wrote:
Using AL-LI Skins, new frames new wing, new tail, apparently a lot of new systems and 787 Flight deck as well means not that many carryover parts pretty well close to brand new.

If they do stretch it to 85m that would probably get them to right about half way in between 777W and A380 in size.


Do you have a source for the AlLi skins? I asked some questions about that on the tech ops thread, but received no response with a source referenced. I asked about the wing box too, wondering if that was CFRP.

In any case, How much lighter is CFRP VS Aluminum alloys?
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Four inches wider with sculpted side walls, a new window belt with bigger windows, new lighting, higher pressurisation for lower cabin altitude, higher humidity, lower noise, new larger overhead bins, what parts do you find to be "older design"?


Unless Boeing has completely redesigned the 777X with new materials, aerodynamics and such at least most of it is an older design. Sure, they've upgraded the cabin, but in the context of weight/efficiency it's still an older design than the A350 and 787.

That's a pretty simplistic view, IMO. The most important aerodynamic elements are the wings, and they are all new on 777x. The most important elements for efficiency are the engines and they are all new on the 777x. The cabin is updated throughout as you admit. Weight comes from engines with bigger diameter that have higher bypass ratio and overall pressure ratio along with increased passenger and cargo capacity. The aircraft offers a combination of payload and range that A350 and 787 do not offer. The aircraft has a long list of blue chip airline customers before first flight. The aircraft is not an A350, 787 or A380 either, it is its own value proposition.


Improvements for sure, but it's still carrying a hefty share of weight because a lot of the plane hasn't been completely redesigned, otherwise it would be a new plane.

I'd be wary of using a list of 'blue chip' customers, I can think of an aircraft that had plenty of blue chip customers before its first flight...
 
justloveplanes
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:22 pm

The 777 has some key aspects for program success that the 'other A/C' you mentioned did not. The 779 is a derivative of a strong design that Boeing knows a lot about building efficiently. Per recent Boeing strategy, a lot of engineering is going into manufacturing efficiency. I believe this includes automated riveting or welding of the fuselage panels for the 777X.

So expect the airplane to be optimally weight efficient for an aluminum frame, and to provide Boeing with a competitive position on price with profitability.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:44 pm

Stitch wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Airbus was very quick to record the EY A350 cancellations publically. There have been rumors...on various publications and Leeham...that not only did they cancel a substantial number of 777x's...


Under ASC 606, Boeing is required to note orders that they have a reasonable expectation will never be delivered. At the moment, they show 5 777 subject to ASC 606. So if Etihad has informed Boeing of their intention to cancel, they have done so for at most 5 777X.

IFRS15 / ASC606 is predominantly about recognising revenues, especially in the current financial year.

The commercial aviation industry bundles conditional and unconditional orders in the same basket, the former far from certain, as both A & B will confirm.

Interpreting these reporting standards literally, if there is a meaningful, substantive delay in timing and/or dollars to any programme, these should be reported to the market. So one would expect a MAX report is overdue, and if a substantial number of X orders are firm, one may not be far away.

But the devil in the detail. How firm are conditional orders? How firm are Boeing's delivery dates and performance guarantees? Qualified? Provisional? Subject to confirmation? And are the X unconditional orders substantive to Boeing Commercial, or the Boeing Group? And if discussions centre around purchase of alternative aircraft, to the same or greater value, also with uncertain delivery dates, do both, one or none need to be reported?

Boeing is fine at the moment, but..... However senior management will be keen not to add external scrutiny for non-compliance of financial standards, in addition to airworthiness standards to the list.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:03 pm

Paulotd wrote:
Emirates needs the 777X as a substitute for A380, and expansion of some long haul, crowded and profitable routes like LHR-DXB. Some old A380 will be put in retirement/scrapped.

For sure they don't need 150 777X, maybe 50-70 units will be enough.


To be fair, they only need -9X. They don't necessarily need -8X.

And I kind of agree, 50-100 would be the max number they need.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:11 am

Part of this change to the Emirates 777-X order, might not just be the downturn in business, but the decreased viability of the 778 compared to the A35K.

As the 778 hasn't been ordered since 2014, along with the MTOW increases to the A35K, it appears that boeing will need to invest more in the 778 to make competitive. Now unless Boeing can get the Sunrise order, Boeing may soon have to decide to cancel or defer development of the 778 varient as it has plenty of other programs that it will need to focus on.
 
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:25 am

Pcoder wrote:
Part of this change to the Emirates 777-X order, might not just be the downturn in business, but the decreased viability of the 778 compared to the A35K.

And increased capability of the 787 family vis a vis A350 AND 777X.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:35 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Unless Boeing has completely redesigned the 777X with new materials, aerodynamics and such at least most of it is an older design. Sure, they've upgraded the cabin, but in the context of weight/efficiency it's still an older design than the A350 and 787.

Boeing has completely redesigned the plane. They have swapped to lighter aluminium-lithium alloy and brand new carbon wings.

So you are incorrect.

Maybe 10-20% of the 777X parts by weight are identical to the 777W parts in both shape AND alloy.

Due to lightning, impact protection and fatigue detection carbon fibre is highly overrated for the fuselage tube. Bombardier had a lot of evidence on this when they were explaining the C seires. There is a very good chance the 797 will be like the C series and use an aluminium lithium tube with carbon wings/tail.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... r-everett/
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:49 am

justloveplanes wrote:
In any case, How much lighter is CFRP VS Aluminum alloys?

CFRP is best for wings and tail.
Aluminum-lithium is best for the fuselage tube.

Carbon composite is lighter but you can not detect fatigue cracking. Having a bit of fuel leaking from the wing is a minor problem compared to explosive decompression of the cabin.

They have to put a metal detection mesh in the carbon layout which reduces strength to weight. aluminium-lithium alloy has completely closed the strength to weight gap for the fuselage tube application.

You also have impact and lightning protection. Alloy has a big advantage here. So the more safety critical the area is the more likely it is for metal to get used.
 
justloveplanes
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:04 am

It will be very interesting then to see how Boeing goes for the 797. Jim McNearney did say, however, that cfrp doesn't scale down well, there is a minimum thickness for puncture resistance, etc.
 
astuteman
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:06 am

Revelation wrote:

keesje wrote:
Firm orders for Boeing 777X

Lufthansa.........................20
Etihad Airways.................25
Cathay Pacific..................21
Emirates.........................150
Qatar Airways..................60
All Nippon Airways...........20
Unidentified customer......10
Singapore Airlines...........20
British Airways.................18

777-8: 53
777-9: 291
Total: 344

It's a pretty good cross section of the world's blue chip airlines, all secured before first flight.

I'm not sure why we'd expect more.


The resemblance to another programme's order book here is uncanny - right before it got cancelled. :scratchchin:

In the last 5 years the 777X has received 48 orders.
The other 294 came in a 19 month launch rush between the November 2013 launch and July 2014, very predominantly driven by an ME3 who are now turning to smaller more versatile frames in a way they haven't before..

I'm not going to joing the ranks of those saying the 777X is "old tech" - I think it will be a technological tour de force.

But I'm not seeing the health in the order book that you're seeing.
I'm seeing an order book that is very heavily dependent upon an ME3 that seem to be rapidly changing their strategy by piling into the even more technologically advanced, extremely capable, and far more versatile 787 and A350.

The conversations on this thread seem to be absolutely parallel to the ones we used to have on the A380, but with all the same players now sitting in opposite camps (including you, and including me).

"It's in a niche of 1 - there's no other place to go if you need the capacity"
"It could be stretched to a 777-10X to boost demand"
Sound familiar?
How did they work out last time around?
For me, the 777X finds itself in the uncomfortable place the A380 found itself in - that lonely spot as the largest, most expensive, least flexible airframe out there, undercut by smaller, more versatile modern airframes.

Unlike the A380 I think it's close enough to the other planes to survive in that hostile environment, but the last half decade example of 1 x 20 frame order every 2 years needs to change. Especially when a fair number of the ME3 orders seem to be at risk

9Patch wrote:
marcelh wrote:
And the 779 does fit into a niche, how big this is and - more important - will become, is not clear. Some political issues in the Middle East that goes south and a economic crisis can make or break the 779.

But it's future got brighter with the untimely demise of the A380.
It's the last man standing in the VLA passenger market.
If you need that kind of capacity, there is only one place to go.


Remind us how well that worked out last time around. On second thoughts, you actually did. :)

Rgds
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:02 am

astuteman wrote:
For me, the 777X finds itself in the uncomfortable place the A380 found itself in - that lonely spot as the largest, most expensive, least flexible airframe out there, undercut by smaller, more versatile modern airframes.

9Patch wrote:
But it's future got brighter with the untimely demise of the A380.
It's the last man standing in the VLA passenger market.
If you need that kind of capacity, there is only one place to go.

Remind us how well that worked out last time around. On second thoughts, you actually did. :)
Rgds


A bit of an apples to oranges comparison. The 777 is a much smaller plane than the A380.

You completely ignore the fact that the 779 is a twin engine while the A380 has four. You ignore that the A380 is a full double deck, with limited cargo capability and 150 more seats to fill. You ignore the fact that the 779 is only slightly larger than the very successful 777-300ER which has 842 orders.

But keep wishing for the 779 to fail. Maybe one of these days you'll be right.
Rgds
 
marcelh
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:15 am

[photoid][/photoid]
9Patch wrote:
marcelh wrote:
And the 779 does fit into a niche, how big this is and - more important - will become, is not clear. Some political issues in the Middle East that goes south and a economic crisis can make or break the 779.

But it's future got brighter with the untimely demise of the A380.
It's the last man standing in the VLA passenger market.
If you need that kind of capacity, there is only one place to go.

The B779 isn’t a true replacement of the A380, because it’s too small. The airlines who are able to make money with the A380 will fly the bird for another decade. And hasn’t the CEO of Qantas stated that 2 B789 flights are cheaper than 1 A380?

The B779 will replace the A380 on some routes, but I don’t see it as THE replacement. The B779 is the plane if you are looking for something slightly bigger than a B77W/A346. But a 10 abreast A35K :crowded: can also be an option. As said before, the race to the bottom in Y isn’t over yet..
 
mig17
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:22 am

9Patch wrote:
astuteman wrote:
For me, the 777X finds itself in the uncomfortable place the A380 found itself in - that lonely spot as the largest, most expensive, least flexible airframe out there, undercut by smaller, more versatile modern airframes.

9Patch wrote:
But it's future got brighter with the untimely demise of the A380.
It's the last man standing in the VLA passenger market.
If you need that kind of capacity, there is only one place to go.

Remind us how well that worked out last time around. On second thoughts, you actually did. :)
Rgds


A bit of an apples to oranges comparison. The 777 is a much smaller plane than the A380.

You completely ignore the fact that the 779 is a twin engine while the A380 has four. You ignore that the A380 is a full double deck, with limited cargo capability and 150 more seats to fill. You ignore the fact that the 779 is only slightly larger than the very successful 777-300ER which has 842 orders.

But keep wishing for the 779 to fail. Maybe one of these days you'll be right.
Rgds

And you ignore the fact that there are more competition against the 77X where it does not seem to have the upper hand. Remember A340NG?
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:20 am

Coming back to my comment regarding "older" design.

1 777x is using grand fathering from 777 family. Can it use grandfathering method with only 10-20% left from 777 family?

2 in order to compete with the 350 family a stretch was needed in combination with state of the art engines.

3 even with state of the art engines and newer wing compared to the A350-1000 it seems like the 778 cannot compete.

4. We can assume that around 2025-2027 350 will get a neo treatment and before that s number of pips will improve the trent engine. It means that it is a question of time before the 350 has an engine on par with the 777x and soon after better engine. Will 777x show a businesscase to reengine or will it get the same fate as the 380?

My conclusion is therefore that 2019 778 is inferior to the 350-1000. In 3 years time the 350-1000 with pips will be very close to the 779. In 2027 it will be ahead and if there is a market another strech of the 350 will make the 350 a direct competitor to the 777x.

By the way i see the 330 survive until 2025 when the 787 get a reengine treatment. Then the 789 snd 787-10 will eat the lunch of 359 :-)
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:24 am

By the way i consider the rengined 789 and 359 to be a great threat to the me3 by making less and less destinstions un economical from Europe p2p.

In the same way i consider that yhe 797 only seems to compete with 788 and 330 series. Not the 320 series
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:34 am

marcelh wrote:
The B779 isn’t a true replacement of the A380, because it’s too small.

I never said it was a true replacement. I said it was the last man standing in the VLA passenger market.

The B779 will replace the A380 on some routes, but I don’t see it as THE replacement. The B779 is the plane if you are looking for something slightly bigger than a B77W/A346. But a 10 abreast A35K :crowded: can also be an option. As said before, the race to the bottom in Y isn’t over yet..

What do you see as THE replacement? If the 779 is too small, than the A35K, even at 10 abreast, is also too small.

There won't be a true replacement for the A380. There is no need for a 550 seat airliner.
Last edited by 9Patch on Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:40 am

mig17 wrote:
And you ignore the fact that there are more competition against the 77X where it does not seem to have the upper hand. Remember A340NG?

I remember the two engine 777 killed the four engine A340.
That's why there was never a A340NG.
 
astuteman
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:46 am

9Patch wrote:
astuteman wrote:
For me, the 777X finds itself in the uncomfortable place the A380 found itself in - that lonely spot as the largest, most expensive, least flexible airframe out there, undercut by smaller, more versatile modern airframes.

9Patch wrote:
But it's future got brighter with the untimely demise of the A380.
It's the last man standing in the VLA passenger market.
If you need that kind of capacity, there is only one place to go.

Remind us how well that worked out last time around. On second thoughts, you actually did. :)
Rgds


A bit of an apples to oranges comparison. The 777 is a much smaller plane than the A380.

You completely ignore the fact that the 779 is a twin engine while the A380 has four. You ignore that the A380 is a full double deck, with limited cargo capability and 150 more seats to fill. You ignore the fact that the 779 is only slightly larger than the very successful 777-300ER which has 842 orders.

But keep wishing for the 779 to fail. Maybe one of these days you'll be right.
Rgds


Perhaps I should also ignore the fact that you have chosen to ignore the comment I made that refutes every one of the allegations you have just made
Perhaps a reminder...

astuteman wrote:
Unlike the A380 I think it's close enough to the other planes to survive in that hostile environment


So not only have I acknowledged that it is closer to its smaller competitors than the A380, but I have also expressed an opinion that that specific characteristic will allow it to survive even against the 787 and A350..
Not only do I want it to survive, but I think it will.
It just won't be a 77W style success.

You might want to reconsider the stupid allegation that I am "wishing for the 779 to fail" when I had already previously written in the same post that I expect it to survive. You never know. "Maybe one of these days I'll be right"
For what its worth, as an enthusiast I don't want any type of plane to fail, so I take a fairly strong exception to that particular groundless misfire.

Not the best thought out response I've ever seen, if I'm honest.
Too much testosterone. Not enough comprehension.

Rgds
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:52 am

I think we forget an important parameter.

As my understanding from following both the conversations about A380 and 330neo an important factor is financing.

Financing companies of the current fleet of 380s do not seems very happy and in that case arent they happy with the 737, 787, 320 and 350s that is low risk and easy to get out to customers?

Seeing the development of 320 and 350 it seems like Airbus nowdays always try to make a case that cannot a frame be used in the most extreme cases it can easily be used on a more standard csse without too much psnalties.

From this oppinions i see that the 77x will have smore difficult life the the 787 and 350.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:01 pm

olle wrote:
Coming back to my comment regarding "older" design.

1 777x is using grand fathering from 777 family. Can it use grandfathering method with only 10-20% left from 777 family?

Changing the aluminium alloy of a part shouldn't change the grandfathering. If Boeing can prove that a new metal is superior in every way then all parts can be swapped over without anything being recertified.

This results in a part having much greater life, and then the lifecycle costs are then reduced.

Boeing’s latest 777-9 will have composite wings but will sport a mostly aluminium fuselage The reason for this change is the emergence of advanced third generation aluminium-lithium (Al-Li) alloys, which are not just cheaper than both CFRP and titanium alloys, but are also lighter and stronger than previous iterations. As a result, Al-Li alloy-intensive aircraft have better fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs. Al-Li alloys are particularly suitable to any application where the strength-to-weight ratio is critical and fatigue cracking is a concern.


https://aluminiuminsider.com/aluminium- ... ight-back/

olle wrote:
My conclusion is therefore that 2019 778 is inferior to the 350-1000. In 3 years time the 350-1000 with pips will be very close to the 779.

The 777-8 can fly significantly more payload a greater distance than the A350-1000. This has been covered endlessly in the project sunrise thread. The 777-9 is the main member of the 777X family with the best CASM. The 777-9 is only fractionally heavier per passenger compared to the A350. The 777-8 is the niche aircraft and a simple shrink that is cheap to develop. This means Boeing doesnt need to sell many 777-8's to justify development. Also the freighter will be based on the 777-8.

I do think the 777X will not live up to Boeings expectations. I think it will continue at a low production rate and it will be discontinued in 15 years time with around 500 aircraft produced. The 777X will not get a single sale once the 787NEO comes out. The 777X will cover the development costs.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:18 pm

astuteman wrote:
The resemblance to another programme's order book here is uncanny - right before it got cancelled. :scratchchin:

Thing is, that other program needed a far healthier order book. It needed to pay off a massive R&D bill while supporting all nature of purpose built manufacturing and finishing works spread across four if not more countries connected by plane, barge and truck. This one is using largely prepaid facilities excepting for a new wing factory next door to the FAL that has built in growth for future programs.

This one hasn't even flown yet, and as mentioned above, this is the 'lull time' when all the cheap launch discounts have been handed out and the customers will be waiting for in flight data and reports of teething pain before they engage in a sales campaign.

I get why drawing a parallel to A380 is so delicious, but the only real parallel is that both will be the largest plane on the market at maturity. Then when you realize A380 is about one third bigger than 777x so far less flexible, A380 carried weight for growth variants never realized, A380 needed all kinds of new taxiway and gate work done that also made it less flexible and still constrains it, 777x emerges with next generation engines whereas A380 had at best current generation engines, the world's airlines have large numbers of 777 trained techs and pilots, and a large slice of A380 replacement will eventually fall to 777x and we end up with a healthy market.

Personally I think Airbus is more worried about A350 than Boeing is worried about 777x. A359 has done well but A358 never got off the ground, A330neo is undermining A359 from below, A35K is not generating much interest on its own nor is it holding serve in incumbent markets against 777x, and it has a cost problem relative to 787. 777x was meant as a relatively low spend variant to capture some premium customers and I think it will serve its purpose. As nice as it would have been if it could have the 777 classic's market projections, no one is expecting that.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:29 pm

astuteman wrote:
Perhaps I should also ignore the fact that you have chosen to ignore the comment I made that refutes every one of the allegations you have just made
Perhaps a reminder...


astuteman wrote:
Unlike the A380 I think it's close enough to the other planes to survive in that hostile environment


Yes, you did pay lip service to the notion that the 777X will survive all the while drawing negative parallels to the A380.

The resemblance to another programme's order book here is uncanny - right before it got cancelled.


For me, the 777X finds itself in the uncomfortable place the A380 found itself in - that lonely spot as the largest, most expensive, least flexible airframe out there, undercut by smaller, more versatile modern airframes.


Sound familiar?
How did they work out last time around?

Sounds like it's going to meet the same fate as the A380, doesn't it?


So not only have I acknowledged that it is closer to its smaller competitors than the A380, but I have also expressed an opinion that that specific characteristic will allow it to survive even against the 787 and A350..
Not only do I want it to survive, but I think it will.

Of course you do. :sarcastic:


It just won't be a 77W style success.

On that we can agree.

You might want to reconsider the stupid allegation that I am "wishing for the 779 to fail" when I had already previously written in the same post that I expect it to survive. You never know. "Maybe one of these days I'll be right"
For what its worth, as an enthusiast I don't want any type of plane to fail, so I take a fairly strong exception to that particular groundless misfire.
Rgds

Nope. I'm not buying that. Not after this:

Remind us how well that worked out last time around. On second thoughts, you actually did. :)
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:41 pm

Good post RJMAZ - the only Caveat the more I think about it though is my previous thought that the 8 never sees the light of day and that effort/funds are put into stretching the -9 into an -10 as long as possible - call it 85M.

Although it would hurt it on range - it's economics up to 6,000nm would be phenomenal with up to 100 more seats or 50/65 3 class/2 class. They then use the -9 for the freighter and LR missions. That is how they get to 600-700 sales. As it is it may be more like 400-500. The cost of an -10 should not be radically more than developing an -8 as by reports they seem have thought about stretching it already and should have taken that into account when doing the -9.

EK gets 360 in a 3 class 77W and 517 in a three Class A388 - 2 Class they get 427 in a 2 class 77W and 615 in an 2 class A388.

As the 779 is already longer than the 77w - I can see them at the same densities getting up 430-440 3 class and about 500-510 in a 2 class -10.

That is not that much smaller than the A388 (call it 20-25% less) and Super duper long range is not needed on a lot of the high density trunk routes where a 7,000nmish -10 would have more than long enough range - and the shorter ones a very large belly to carry a lot of freight.

It would kill the A380 on economics, and be better than an A351 on CASM as well - assuming you could fill it.
 
VV
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:46 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change strategy.


Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll:
...


Okay, it seems everybody but me here knows what Emirates' strategy is or will be.

Today they operate about 111 A380 and about 137 777.

So, what is their new strategy?
 
RickNRoll
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Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:55 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
justloveplanes wrote:
In any case, How much lighter is CFRP VS Aluminum alloys?

CFRP is best for wings and tail.
Aluminum-lithium is best for the fuselage tube.

Carbon composite is lighter but you can not detect fatigue cracking. Having a bit of fuel leaking from the wing is a minor problem compared to explosive decompression of the cabin.

They have to put a metal detection mesh in the carbon layout which reduces strength to weight. aluminium-lithium alloy has completely closed the strength to weight gap for the fuselage tube application.

You also have impact and lightning protection. Alloy has a big advantage here. So the more safety critical the area is the more likely it is for metal to get used.


CFRP is already obsolete as a fuselage material?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:47 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
CFRP is already obsolete as a fuselage material?

Yes.

CFRP was better than traditional 7050 or 7075 aluminium which was the best material in the 1980's and 1990's respectively. Al-Li 2198 is now an improvenent over CFRP.

CFRP did not live up to expectations with the 787 in terms of weight for the fuselage pressure section. The impact and lightning protection added much more weight than expected.

As soon as you require impact protection or fatigue detection Al-Li 2198 starts to become the material of choice.

As soon as you scale the aircraft down CFRP has to have a minimum thickness for impact protection so Al-Li 2198 becomes the obvious choice.

For wings and tail CFRP is clearly will always be the best material.

Titanium is actually the strongest but it is extremely costly and slow to machine. 3d printed titanium will be the next breakthrough. In 50 years they will no doubt 3d print the ribs, longerons and wingbox out of titanium in massive sections. Then they will bond on Al-Li skins to the fuselage and bolt on CFRP wings and tail.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:22 pm

will the 787/350 NEOs involve any replacements at all of fuselage CFRP (not wholesale, but certain elements)?
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:28 pm

olle wrote:
even with state of the art engines and newer wing compared to the A350-1000 it seems like the 778 cannot compete.


Boeing may have pitched the 777-8 against the A350-1000 in their marketing materials, but the program really existed due to the desire of Emirates for a (roughly) 777-300ER capacity with a 777-200LR range. No other airline was really looking for that. And now that the A350-1000 has seen an (effective) 20,000kg increase in TOW from the original design, I believe it could fill the role of the 777-8 at Emirates which is why I believe Boeing is now having (serious) second thoughts about the model because it's market niche now effectively doesn't exist anymore.


olle wrote:
We can assume that around 2025-2027 350 will get a neo treatment and before that s number of pips will improve the trent engine. It means that it is a question of time before the 350 has an engine on par with the 777x and soon after better engine. Will 777x show a business case to reengine or will it get the same fate as the 380?


The GE9X is unlikely to receive a major PiP, but it will certainly see PiPs throughout it's operating life, just as the GE90-115B did.
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:35 pm

VV wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change strategy.


Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll:
...


Okay, it seems everybody but me here knows what Emirates' strategy is or will be.

Today they operate about 111 A380 and about 137 777.

So, what is their new strategy?


50-75 777-10
100-150 777-9
50-100 A359/A351

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