RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:31 am

chiad wrote:
I am not so sure.
The traffic growth has stopped, so has capacity growth (only 3 aircraft received so far this year vs 14 for 2018 and 21 for 2017).
Still another 11 A380's are joining the fleet in the next 2 or 3 years, and EK's fleet is rather young.
Then the A330's and A350 starts to pour in.
I think a big portion of the 777X's will be cancelled as EK contracts.

Yes growth may have stopped but the 777-9 is still a massive downgauge from the A380. If someone thinks Emirates needs to downguage and to increase frequency on routes then the 777-9 will do that on the A380 routes. It does not need to go all the way down to 787 size to achieve that.

The first A380's will be leaving the fleet at the same time as the first 777X's arrive. By the time the 100th 777X arrives most of the A380's will be retired. It is the perfect timing.

The 777X replaces the A380. The 787/A350/A330 replaces the 777W's. Everything is downgauged with frequency adjusted to accordingly.
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:35 am

777x will have much more competition then th 777300er ever had.

The A350 is already super efficient, the ultrafan will hang on a wing in 2025-2028 time framework.

With ultrafan and 7-10% more efficient engine then the current RR xwb I think an A350-2000 with the similar weights and able to fly the same distances as an A350-1000 with RR xwb engines.

Even today when entering market the A350 year 2020 will have much more efficient engines compared to the RR xwb the 777x was compared to a few years back.

Each delay of the 777x get it closer to the point where the A350 is head to head to the 777x.
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:41 am

A350 ultrafan in combination with 777x makes the bussines case for the ME3 more complicated for each year. This together with A321xlr the European and Asian carriers fights back both the classical carriers but also nofrills.
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:34 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Emirates will accept every last 777X it has ordered. The 777X order was placed when there was still a possibility of the A380NEO replacing the current A380's.

Now Emirates have has 120 A380's with no direct replacement. They would need 180 777-9's just to keep the same capacity. The 777-9's being the largest aircraft available will clesrly get used on the thick A380 routes. They have slot restrictions so they aren't going to replace them with 787's and cut capacity by half.

This explains why they are looking at 787's and A350's. The 777X order doesn't even cover the retiring A380's so all the 777W's need to be replaced. The 777X will clearly be the A380 replacement

EK will likely accept all X's ordered. EK will however use delivery slippage to extract additional benefits / savings.
 
VV
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:41 am

olle wrote:
A350 ultrafan in combination with 777x makes the bussines case for the ME3 more complicated for each year. This together with A321xlr the European and Asian carriers fights back both the classical carriers but also nofrills.


I like science fiction.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:01 pm

smartplane wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Emirates will accept every last 777X it has ordered. The 777X order was placed when there was still a possibility of the A380NEO replacing the current A380's.

Now Emirates have has 120 A380's with no direct replacement. They would need 180 777-9's just to keep the same capacity. The 777-9's being the largest aircraft available will clesrly get used on the thick A380 routes. They have slot restrictions so they aren't going to replace them with 787's and cut capacity by half.

This explains why they are looking at 787's and A350's. The 777X order doesn't even cover the retiring A380's so all the 777W's need to be replaced. The 777X will clearly be the A380 replacement

EK will likely accept all X's ordered. EK will however use delivery slippage to extract additional benefits / savings.


I don't know, you both might be right, but I believe there is a recession coming, and there is a lot of capacity going to be delivered, so it might turn out there is overcapacity and than people might be inclined to bypass the Emirates in favor of a more direct flight or even non-stop.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:37 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I don't know, you both might be right, but I believe there is a recession coming, and there is a lot of capacity going to be delivered, so it might turn out there is overcapacity and than people might be inclined to bypass the Emirates in favor of a more direct flight or even non-stop.

Lets look at the number of seats. Emirates have not over ordered.

Emirates have 123 A380's that seat around 500 passengers in 3 class. They have ordered 115 777-9 and 35 777-8's that would seat 350 and 300 seats respectively. That is a 20% reduction in seats.

Emirates have 134 777-300ER's that seat around 350 seats and 10 77L's. They have ordered 40 A330-900's and 30 A350-900 a reduction of nearly 60%. Add the 40 787-10's commitments and we still have a reduction of 20%. That is very realistic ordering.

I actually think there is room for a big 797 order. This will allow the Emirates model to expand to even smaller cities in Europe and Asia allowing 1 stop options that would normally be 2 or 3 stops.
 
TObound
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:00 pm

LOL @ EK flying 797s. Not happening. At best, that's what FZ is for.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:06 pm

AFAIK there is no city in Asia that requires 2 stops...at least from here in UK. The ME3 have most of Asia covered either using EK..QR or EY. Unless you are going to some obscure point off the beaten track.

We have already seen what EK has done in the past with cancelling orders.

Rumors.. and that is all they are, is that EY does not want even the 787s they have on order, nevermind their order for the 777x.
 
TObound
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:08 pm

Dutchy wrote:
smartplane wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Emirates will accept every last 777X it has ordered. The 777X order was placed when there was still a possibility of the A380NEO replacing the current A380's.

Now Emirates have has 120 A380's with no direct replacement. They would need 180 777-9's just to keep the same capacity. The 777-9's being the largest aircraft available will clesrly get used on the thick A380 routes. They have slot restrictions so they aren't going to replace them with 787's and cut capacity by half.

This explains why they are looking at 787's and A350's. The 777X order doesn't even cover the retiring A380's so all the 777W's need to be replaced. The 777X will clearly be the A380 replacement

EK will likely accept all X's ordered. EK will however use delivery slippage to extract additional benefits / savings.


I don't know, you both might be right, but I believe there is a recession coming, and there is a lot of capacity going to be delivered, so it might turn out there is overcapacity and than people might be inclined to bypass the Emirates in favor of a more direct flight or even non-stop.


If a recession comes, EK will buy more 777X's. Cheaper prices and EK is less sensitive to a global recession than say European and North American carriers. EK's major markets are still growing.

They are just retrenching now to see how the market settles with the ME3, the growing TK, the Jet Airways turmoil in India, etc. I expect, once they have a way forward with DWC and some kind of deal on EY, and some experience with the 777X, they'll be buying airplanes again.
 
TObound
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:15 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
AFAIK there is no city in Asia that requires 2 stops...at least from here in UK. The ME3 have most of Asia covered either using EK..QR or EY. Unless you are going to some obscure point off the beaten track.

We have already seen what EK has done in the past with cancelling orders.

Rumors.. and that is all they are, is that EY does not want even the 787s they have on order, nevermind their order for the 777x.


My off the wall idea is that ruling families reach an agreement and EK and EY merge and move into DWC.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:08 pm

chiad wrote:
I think a big portion of the 777X's will be cancelled as EK contracts.


EK would have to contract substantially considering how much smaller a 777-9 is compared to an A380.

And if they contract that much, they are more likely to focus on their core city-pairs, which would, IMO, put the A330/A350/(787) order at risk as the 777-9 would be the most logical choice to service those city-pairs.
 
TObound
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:19 pm

RJMAZ wrote:

Emirates have 123 A380's that seat around 500 passengers in 3 class. They have ordered 115 777-9 and 35 777-8's that would seat 350 and 300 seats respectively. That is a 20% reduction in seats.


350 and 300?? Their current 77Ws and 77Ls have more. Try 380 and 330 and you'll be much closer to EK's layout on 779 and 778 respectively.

Run those numbers and you'll be closer about a 12% cut.

RJMAZ wrote:

Emirates have 134 777-300ER's that seat around 350 seats and 10 77L's. They have ordered 40 A330-900's and 30 A350-900 a reduction of nearly 60%. Add the 40 787-10's commitments and we still have a reduction of 20%. That is very realistic ordering.


They are most definitely going to be ordering more or tailoring these orders. The 339 is the medium haul "250 seater" that Tim Clark talked about. The 359 is their long range 300 seater. And the 78J is their medium haul 300 seater. Complements the 339.

I would not be surprised to see one of these orders/fleet ideas cut or the 359 upgauged. The 351 would be a better 77W replacement.
Last edited by TObound on Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:26 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Lets look at the number of seats. Emirates have not over ordered.

Emirates have 123 A380's that seat around 500 passengers in 3 class. They have ordered 115 777-9 and 35 777-8's that would seat 350 and 300 seats respectively. That is a 20% reduction in seats.

Emirates have 134 777-300ER's that seat around 350 seats and 10 77L's. They have ordered 40 A330-900's and 30 A350-900 a reduction of nearly 60%. Add the 40 787-10's commitments and we still have a reduction of 20%. That is very realistic ordering.

I actually think there is room for a big 797 order. This will allow the Emirates model to expand to even smaller cities in Europe and Asia allowing 1 stop options that would normally be 2 or 3 stops.



Your post is weird, how can the 779 and 77W have the same amount of seats? I would not be surprised to see EK move to smaller aircraft doing the same job, at the same time as you say that is a lot of capacity that EK will lose once the A380's go out of the fleet.

The problem I see for EK is the premium seating more than just number of seats. There is a big difference in F and J seats between the 777 and the A380. Add in the more spacious and luxurious seats in the A380 and unless you are downgrading your whole fleet with the seats on offer in J if they do go for an all aisle J as in the A380 in the 777X it will be an even bigger reduction in capacity.
 
TObound
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:40 pm

enzo011 wrote:

The problem I see for EK is the premium seating more than just number of seats. There is a big difference in F and J seats between the 777 and the A380. Add in the more spacious and luxurious seats in the A380 and unless you are downgrading your whole fleet with the seats on offer in J if they do go for an all aisle J as in the A380 in the 777X it will be an even bigger reduction in capacity.


I figure a 779 will end up with 8-12 good sized F suites, depending on if they can fit 2 or 3 rows of 4 suites between the first two doors. Selling F is increasingly pointless unless it's a suite going forward.

And with J, they can be more space efficient by using a herringbone layout. 7 abreast to 4 abreast looks like a huge drop. But herringbone takes up far less pitch. Or there's 4 abreast alternating. I really doubt we'll see less J seats than today. I would bet 5-15% increase (so 44-48 J seats).

But yeah overall going from an A380 to a 779 is going to be a 25-30% drop.
 
Fatbus
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:52 pm

380 not being replaced by anything as it sits now . 777x repealing 777s . 380 slight reduction, which is good for business, 330/350 fill in the gaps . Planned 380 usage unti lat 2030s according to TC . ME market changing rapidly, don't expect major expansion.
 
TObound
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:22 pm

Fatbus wrote:
380 not being replaced by anything as it sits now . 777x repealing 777s . 380 slight reduction, which is good for business, 330/350 fill in the gaps . Planned 380 usage unti lat 2030s according to TC . ME market changing rapidly, don't expect major expansion.


They say they aren't replacing the 380s with 777X. But their order pattern means that this is exactly what will happen as some A380s get parted out in the 2020s and the A380 fleet count starts dropping early next decade.

I think the 777X buy was genuinely aimed at replacing the 777 fleet. But events since the order has EK downsizing. There'll be just as many A380 routes downsized to a 779 as there are 77W routes upgauged to a 779. And lots of 77W routes downsized to a 78J or 359.
 
xwb777
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:34 pm

TObound wrote:
enzo011 wrote:

The problem I see for EK is the premium seating more than just number of seats. There is a big difference in F and J seats between the 777 and the A380. Add in the more spacious and luxurious seats in the A380 and unless you are downgrading your whole fleet with the seats on offer in J if they do go for an all aisle J as in the A380 in the 777X it will be an even bigger reduction in capacity.


I figure a 779 will end up with 8-12 good sized F suites, depending on if they can fit 2 or 3 rows of 4 suites between the first two doors. Selling F is increasingly pointless unless it's a suite going forward.

And with J, they can be more space efficient by using a herringbone layout. 7 abreast to 4 abreast looks like a huge drop. But herringbone takes up far less pitch. Or there's 4 abreast alternating. I really doubt we'll see less J seats than today. I would bet 5-15% increase (so 44-48 J seats).

But yeah overall going from an A380 to a 779 is going to be a 25-30% drop.



I read somewhere that the two class B779s will have 49 J-class seats.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:03 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Emirates will accept every last 777X it has ordered. The 777X order was placed when there was still a possibility of the A380NEO replacing the current A380's.

Now Emirates have has 120 A380's with no direct replacement. They would need 180 777-9's just to keep the same capacity. The 777-9's being the largest aircraft available will clesrly get used on the thick A380 routes. They have slot restrictions so they aren't going to replace them with 787's and cut capacity by half.

This explains why they are looking at 787's and A350's. The 777X order doesn't even cover the retiring A380's so all the 777W's need to be replaced. The 777X will clearly be the A380 replacement


I agree that EK will accept every 777x on order, possibly order even more down the road.

What is very interesting is EK has not firmed up orders for the 787, nor the A330 / A350 orders from the A380 termination. It has been over 6 months since that agreement was out there. I believe they are stalling on signing all of these orders in order to extend out the deliveries. EK has probably reached its operations limit, there are stations and flights that are just marginal now, all of the better routes have reached saturation. It is apparent that for 4 to 5 years they have slowed down the amount of new metal coming on line. Their pilot pool is having issues also.

They apparently have loved the 77W workhorse, no public moaning about it which they regularly did with the 380, in particular the RR ones. It seems the GE90 performs better in the 'dusty desert' conditions, is it because the GE fan blade clearances are larger than the fine sand or the fan expels the sand before the core? Anyway, has EK developed a preference for GE engines, that could really effect things down the road.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:03 pm

xwb777 wrote:
I read somewhere that the two class B779s will have 49 J-class seats.


Correct - they have stated their two-class 777-9s would be 449 seats [49J | 391Y] compared to 427 on their 777-300ERs [42J | 385Y].
 
TObound
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:12 pm

Stitch wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
I read somewhere that the two class B779s will have 49 J-class seats.


Correct - they have stated their two-class 777-9s would be 449 seats [49J | 391Y] compared to 427 on their 777-300ERs [42J | 385Y].


A 27% cut replacing a high density 380 and a 5% increase over a high density 77W. So really, where they replace A380s (eventually) they’ll be looking to boost frequencies. And it’s basically a nice 77W replacement with a small boost in yields.
 
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IslandRob
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:20 pm

Stitch wrote:
Correct - they have stated their two-class 777-9s would be 449 seats [49J | 391Y] compared to 427 on their 777-300ERs [42J | 385Y].

Math check needed! -ir
If you wrote me off, I'd understand it
'Cause I've been on some other planet
So come pick me up, I've landed
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:23 pm

olle wrote:
With ultrafan and 7-10% more efficient engine then the current RR xwb I think an A350-2000 with the similar weights and able to fly the same distances as an A350-1000 with RR xwb engines.

A350-2000 is vaporware.


Each delay of the 777x get it closer to the point where the A350 is head to head to the 777x.

RR has it's own history of engine delays.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:11 pm

Stitch wrote:
Correct - they have stated their two-class 777-9s would be 449 seats [49J | 391Y] compared to 427 on their 777-300ERs [42J | 385Y].

IslandRob wrote:
Math check needed! -ir


Yes, I meant to hit 0 instead of 9 since 440 is the Exit Limit with four Type A doors.
 
Fatbus
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:36 am

Current 380 s @ + 120 reducing to 100 including remaining orders., @40 being "parted out" . Remaining 100 around for some time as there is a market need . Think what you want but watch what reading happens .
 
Eyad89
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:47 am

Stitch wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Correct - they have stated their two-class 777-9s would be 449 seats [49J | 391Y] compared to 427 on their 777-300ERs [42J | 385Y].

IslandRob wrote:
Math check needed! -ir


Yes, I meant to hit 0 instead of 9 since 440 is the Exit Limit with four Type A doors.


Interesting, so EK hit the 440 exit limit even with its relatively spacious seating config?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:03 am

The A380 will leave the fleet quickly and they will order more 777-9s.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:25 am

seahawk wrote:
The A380 will leave the fleet quickly and they will order more 777-9s.


If what AF indicated is true that fuel burn per seat is 20 25% then the latest WB it will send many A380 to the desert

https://www.airfranceklm.com/en/evoluti ... -klm-fleet
 
VV
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:35 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The A380 will leave the fleet quickly and they will order more 777-9s.


If what AF indicated is true that fuel burn per seat is 20 25% then the latest WB it will send many A380 to the desert

https://www.airfranceklm.com/en/evoluti ... -klm-fleet



It means Air France puts the A380 and 777-300ER in the same ballpark from fuel burn per seat perspective.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:53 am

Which is realistic given the cabin configurations used by AF.
 
WorldspotterPL
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:53 am

lightsaber wrote:
I couldn't find a link of the transfer traffer.

Abu Dhabi has 26.5 million passengers and Doha about 35 million. So the other ME2 just are not in the same league.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/dest ... ravel-hub/

Going from memory, Dubai had the highest fraction O&D, does anyone have a link for DXB, DOH, AUH, IST, and ADD O&D fractions?

Lightsaber


Hi! A little late maybe, but I do have the O&D numbers for 2017. These are numbers for the hub-carriers and alliance/code-share partners only, not the entire airport.

[email protected]: 42%
[email protected]: 30%
[email protected]: 26%
[email protected]: 24%
[email protected]: 21%
[email protected]: 15%
[email protected]: 15%

Best,
PL
 
vondes
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:13 am

If this is true in anyway it's a real kick in the balls for BA. The 777X order for Emirates was the largest order on the books.
This might also be a negotiating tactic. Clark has been known to play hardball with both BA and Airbus. He has a history of playing them off against each other to get the result he wants.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:51 am

Fatbus wrote:
Current 380 s @ + 120 reducing to 100 including remaining orders., @40 being "parted out" . Remaining 100 around for some time as there is a market need . Think what you want but watch what reading happens .


I wonder if the A380/A350/A33neo deal has lasped because it's been almost six months with no deveelpmt.

Very odd.
 
Fatbus
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:04 am

Still planning on the first 330 nov /dec 2020 +5/6 first couple months of 2021 , possible delay due to engine contract . Plan is in place for 777x sim to replace the oldest 777 sim , no mention yet of 330 neo sim .
 
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Polot
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:09 am

Eyad89 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Correct - they have stated their two-class 777-9s would be 449 seats [49J | 391Y] compared to 427 on their 777-300ERs [42J | 385Y].

IslandRob wrote:
Math check needed! -ir


Yes, I meant to hit 0 instead of 9 since 440 is the Exit Limit with four Type A doors.


Interesting, so EK hit the 440 exit limit even with its relatively spacious seating config?

With 10Y and 2-2-2 J (on the 77Ls, 2-3-2 on the 77Ws) EK does not have a relatively spacious seating config.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:12 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Fatbus wrote:
Current 380 s @ + 120 reducing to 100 including remaining orders., @40 being "parted out" . Remaining 100 around for some time as there is a market need . Think what you want but watch what reading happens .


I wonder if the A380/A350/A33neo deal has lasped because it's been almost six months with no deveelpmt.

Very odd.


I believe someone mentioned that EK wanted their 339s as soon as next year...so if the Airbus deal has indeed lapsed, then it must only be a malicious rumor!

But..what do we know? Will they take the 787-10s..convert some 777x to the 787-9...defer a big chunk of the 779s?

Lots of changes since their initial 779 order in 2013...at this point there is doubt the 778 will get built at all. So until there is an official definite announcement from EK and Boeing and Airbus, it's all pure speculation.
 
mig17
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:35 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Fatbus wrote:
Current 380 s @ + 120 reducing to 100 including remaining orders., @40 being "parted out" . Remaining 100 around for some time as there is a market need . Think what you want but watch what reading happens .


I wonder if the A380/A350/A33neo deal has lasped because it's been almost six months with no deveelpmt.

Very odd.


With EK, not so odd, they have already cancelled or not firmed 70 A350, 39 A380, 40 781 and are talking with Boeing of the 77X ...
EK have always a lot on order and likes to "change their minds" sometimes. They are going to buy a lot from A & B but not always what they have chosen in the first place.
Some announcement may come at the next DUBAI AIRSHOW later this year. Like firming the A380 => A350/A330N (one or both ...or even something else ...) deal the same with 77X => less 77X or 787 or more 77X or a combo of thoses.

Replacing an A380 doesn't have to be with the next largest plane on the market. Qantas (2 787 = 1 A380) or AF (10 A380 => 9 A359 or A339 or 789) could tell you that. You have to consider what's best fits your needs.

What is happening now between EK and Boeing :
EY is trying to get out of the 777-X. EK finds the new A330N/A350/787 trio appealing. Boeing wants to keep EK on the 777-X track so they are going to have to make concession or EK can choose something else.
Same with Airbus, they have the opportunity to place 2 new types at EK and hurt the 777-X if they make concessions.

EK is negotiating with both sides to get better deals. But, since they have ordered a lot and the ME may not be in the best of shapes, they may not be as strong as they think in those negotiations.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:32 am

If EK for some reason do not firm the 330 / 350 deal, they will owe Airbus and RR a lot of cash instead for the cancelled 380s.

I expect it will be firmed at Dubai air show - maybe with some changes from the announced LoI.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:59 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
If EK for some reason do not firm the 330 / 350 deal, they will owe Airbus and RR a lot of cash instead for the cancelled 380s.

I expect it will be firmed at Dubai air show - maybe with some changes from the announced LoI.


Maybe you're right...quite maddening the silence coming from all ME3 carriers. Not even one twitch from any of them as to the delay in 1st flight.

Usually Al Baker is screaming to the rafters on any slip up on his aircraft orders. Quite noticeable he hasn't uttered one word!
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:48 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
If EK for some reason do not firm the 330 / 350 deal, they will owe Airbus and RR a lot of cash instead for the cancelled 380s.


Might not be a safe assumption on one's part. EK was the only airline keeping the A380 program alive so EK and Airbus could have written into their sales contracts for their last 50 A380s that they could cancel, change or defer without penalty. And if they did not, Airbus may very well have waived any fees/deposits on those cancelled A380s just to close the line rather than keep it limping along at a production rate that generated negative equity on each delivery.

Same with RR on the Trent 900, though if EK does decide to add 787s they could be RR-powered. And there were the rumors of EK not being pleased with the maintenance intervals on the Trent 900 in the Dubai operating environment so EK and RR might have come to an agreement to waive penalties owed by both sides (EK for cancellation and RR for missed performance guarantees). EK was also pushing Airbus and RR for a New Engine Option on the A380, so the sales contracts could have taken the failure to produce such an engine into account when it came to penalties on EK's part for changes, deferrals or cancellations.
 
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Polot
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:04 pm

Stitch wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
If EK for some reason do not firm the 330 / 350 deal, they will owe Airbus and RR a lot of cash instead for the cancelled 380s.


Might not be a safe assumption on one's part. EK was the only airline keeping the A380 program alive so EK and Airbus could have written into their sales contracts for their last 50 A380s that they could cancel, change or defer without penalty. And if they did not, Airbus may very well have waived any fees/deposits on those cancelled A380s just to close the line rather than keep it limping along at a production rate that generated negative equity on each delivery.

Same with RR on the Trent 900, though if EK does decide to add 787s they could be RR-powered. And there were the rumors of EK not being pleased with the maintenance intervals on the Trent 900 in the Dubai operating environment so EK and RR might have come to an agreement to waive penalties owed by both sides (EK for cancellation and RR for missed performance guarantees). EK was also pushing Airbus and RR for a New Engine Option on the A380, so the sales contracts could have taken the failure to produce such an engine into account when it came to penalties on EK's part for changes, deferrals or cancellations.


Also important to remember the last 20 A380 cancelled never had an engine contract. And of course any renegotiation of the 77X involves GE.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:31 pm

Polot wrote:
Stitch wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
If EK for some reason do not firm the 330 / 350 deal, they will owe Airbus and RR a lot of cash instead for the cancelled 380s.


Might not be a safe assumption on one's part. EK was the only airline keeping the A380 program alive so EK and Airbus could have written into their sales contracts for their last 50 A380s that they could cancel, change or defer without penalty. And if they did not, Airbus may very well have waived any fees/deposits on those cancelled A380s just to close the line rather than keep it limping along at a production rate that generated negative equity on each delivery.

Same with RR on the Trent 900, though if EK does decide to add 787s they could be RR-powered. And there were the rumors of EK not being pleased with the maintenance intervals on the Trent 900 in the Dubai operating environment so EK and RR might have come to an agreement to waive penalties owed by both sides (EK for cancellation and RR for missed performance guarantees). EK was also pushing Airbus and RR for a New Engine Option on the A380, so the sales contracts could have taken the failure to produce such an engine into account when it came to penalties on EK's part for changes, deferrals or cancellations.


Also important to remember the last 20 A380 cancelled never had an engine contract. And of course any renegotiation of the 77X involves GE.

There would have been an out for the engines certainly. How much is owed, slot times, guarantees...

I would assume EK owes far less than many of us here assume. I'm not saying EK won't firm the orders, but EK has backed out of LoIs for A346, A333, 787s, and now A380s.

I do not know the terms obviously.

The Dubai airshow will tell us.

EK is far too large of a buyer to drive away. On the same front, EK must be shown firm contract terms are just that.

But as noted already, EK probably had a low penalty firm contract.

Lightsaber
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Strato2
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:43 pm

VV wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The A380 will leave the fleet quickly and they will order more 777-9s.


If what AF indicated is true that fuel burn per seat is 20 25% then the latest WB it will send many A380 to the desert

https://www.airfranceklm.com/en/evoluti ... -klm-fleet



It means Air France puts the A380 and 777-300ER in the same ballpark from fuel burn per seat perspective.


That is very bad number for the 777 since some of them have only around 60 seats less than the Superjumbo.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:02 pm

Strato2 wrote:
VV wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:

If what AF indicated is true that fuel burn per seat is 20 25% then the latest WB it will send many A380 to the desert

https://www.airfranceklm.com/en/evoluti ... -klm-fleet



It means Air France puts the A380 and 777-300ER in the same ballpark from fuel burn per seat perspective.


That is very bad number for the 777 since some of them have only around 60 seats less than the Superjumbo.

New generation is A35K or promises for 779. The A380 burned slightly more fuel per seat than the 77W, but saved enough elsewhere to be about 7% less cash per seat and more comfy too.

If the 779 meets promise, it will quickly replace the A380, at EK too. For 20% to 25% fuel savings, slots at LHR are paid for and some. That frees up cash to build out DWC. There will be a few bilateral limits impacted, but the 779 will make more profit per flight than the A380. More profit than a paid off A380 by a good margin.

Widebodies are advancing so quickly that older widebodies need to be moved to lower utilization duty. I'm not saying they will be scrapped, but instead fly those routes with high ground time as paid off aircraft incur less cost sitting.

I do believe when EK starts retiring the A380 to they will have to right size the connecting dude of the fleet. So not all 779, many will be A359/787-10/A339.

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Last edited by lightsaber on Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:03 pm

But not in 4 class layout. The Caribbean configuration will probably defeat the A380 in CASM, probably not in revenue though.

Fleet planing at EK will be a hard job at the moment anyway. The 787 allowed many more new connections and the A321XLR also open many new options from European hubs to Africa and Asia, as well from Asian hubs within Asia and to Australia. Add TK with the new airport and the ability to cover all of Europe and most of Southwest Asia and large parts of Africa with single aisle planes and the whole business model becomes shaky. Time sensitive travellers now can often use a direct flight, while others can offer more one-stop connections than EK for much lower operating costs and with equipment much more easy to fill.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:23 pm

seahawk wrote:
But not in 4 class layout. The Caribbean configuration will probably defeat the A380 in CASM, probably not in revenue though.

Fleet planing at EK will be a hard job at the moment anyway. The 787 allowed many more new connections and the A321XLR also open many new options from European hubs to Africa and Asia, as well from Asian hubs within Asia and to Australia. Add TK with the new airport and the ability to cover all of Europe and most of Southwest Asia and large parts of Africa with single aisle planes and the whole business model becomes shaky. Time sensitive travellers now can often use a direct flight, while others can offer more one-stop connections than EK for much lower operating costs and with equipment much more easy to fill.

The 77W already burns less fuel per seat in equivalent configuration. The 779 will do far better. The GE9x has so many issues getting certified as it pushes the limits.

As to TK, they are dangerous competition. Profit is increasingly the premium passenger who takes a direct or even a business jet if the connection is poor. Yields on connections will continue to drop. As just noted, the direct flight.

Add to your list of planes the A220/NEO(not just A321xle)/MAX and hopefully NMA. The base A320 NEO gained 600nm of range. The MAX about 500. This cuts so much the direct flight cost, per flight, that hubs will be bypassed.

EK must shrink. I was a fan. They did well, but now the cheese has moved and the new IST really will change the game.

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jbs2886
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:53 pm

mig17 wrote:
What is happening now between EK and Boeing :
EY is trying to get out of the 777-X. EK finds the new A330N/A350/787 trio appealing. Boeing wants to keep EK on the 777-X track so they are going to have to make concession or EK can choose something else.
Same with Airbus, they have the opportunity to place 2 new types at EK and hurt the 777-X if they make concessions.

EK is negotiating with both sides to get better deals. But, since they have ordered a lot and the ME may not be in the best of shapes, they may not be as strong as they think in those negotiations.


Whoa, I don't think EK is trying to get out of the 777X entirely.
 
mig17
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:53 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
mig17 wrote:
What is happening now between EK and Boeing :
EY is trying to get out of the 777-X. EK finds the new A330N/A350/787 trio appealing. Boeing wants to keep EK on the 777-X track so they are going to have to make concession or EK can choose something else.
Same with Airbus, they have the opportunity to place 2 new types at EK and hurt the 777-X if they make concessions.

EK is negotiating with both sides to get better deals. But, since they have ordered a lot and the ME may not be in the best of shapes, they may not be as strong as they think in those negotiations.


Whoa, I don't think EK is trying to get out of the 777X entirely.

Hum! Never said that ...
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
xwb777
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:39 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
mig17 wrote:
What is happening now between EK and Boeing :
EY is trying to get out of the 777-X. EK finds the new A330N/A350/787 trio appealing. Boeing wants to keep EK on the 777-X track so they are going to have to make concession or EK can choose something else.
Same with Airbus, they have the opportunity to place 2 new types at EK and hurt the 777-X if they make concessions.

EK is negotiating with both sides to get better deals. But, since they have ordered a lot and the ME may not be in the best of shapes, they may not be as strong as they think in those negotiations.


Whoa, I don't think EK is trying to get out of the 777X entirely.


Will Boeing allow them? Lets see! We Will have a clearer picture in November.
 
olle
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Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:14 pm

The problem seems to be

Ek do they want to get again in a situation where a program majorly rely on them?

777x seems to become the replacement of 380. But for this they need them later. Boeing need to produce them now.

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