chiad wrote:I am not so sure.
The traffic growth has stopped, so has capacity growth (only 3 aircraft received so far this year vs 14 for 2018 and 21 for 2017).
Still another 11 A380's are joining the fleet in the next 2 or 3 years, and EK's fleet is rather young.
Then the A330's and A350 starts to pour in.
I think a big portion of the 777X's will be cancelled as EK contracts.
Yes growth may have stopped but the 777-9 is still a massive downgauge from the A380. If someone thinks Emirates needs to downguage and to increase frequency on routes then the 777-9 will do that on the A380 routes. It does not need to go all the way down to 787 size to achieve that.
The first A380's will be leaving the fleet at the same time as the first 777X's arrive. By the time the 100th 777X arrives most of the A380's will be retired. It is the perfect timing.
The 777X replaces the A380. The 787/A350/A330 replaces the 777W's. Everything is downgauged with frequency adjusted to accordingly.