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RickNRoll
Posts: 1869
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:40 pm

ewt340 wrote:
I feel like if Airbus suddenly announced A350-2000. It would kill B777X entirely.
It possibly could. That would be an expensive risk and a company like Airbus under it's current management is risk averse.
 
9Patch
Posts: 584
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:33 pm

olle wrote:
https://leehamnews.com/2019/07/01/pontifications-busting-the-xwb-brand-and-more-about-the-boeing-iag-deal/

says that;

Boeing claims the 777-9 is 25% more economical on a per-seat basis than the A350-1000.

This means that;

A: If 778 is 10% less efficient per seat it is still 15% more efficient to 351 according to the claim by boeing

or

B; if 778 == 351with similar seat count is 25% less efficient per seat then 779.

C: or if 778 less efficient then 351 is close 30% less efficient then 779.



My point here is that it could be interesting to know what is the truth? A few days ago in this thread and also the sunrise thread about quantas, a 350 could never beat a 778 less 779

That was your point? I thought this was your point:

olle wrote:
What a change in this thread in 72 hours.

From A350 breathing its final breath under the unbeatable 777x and now everything only gloomy for the 777x.

Except it wasn't true.
 
olle
Posts: 2379
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:16 pm

9Patch wrote:
olle wrote:
https://leehamnews.com/2019/07/01/pontifications-busting-the-xwb-brand-and-more-about-the-boeing-iag-deal/

says that;

Boeing claims the 777-9 is 25% more economical on a per-seat basis than the A350-1000.

This means that;

A: If 778 is 10% less efficient per seat it is still 15% more efficient to 351 according to the claim by boeing

or

B; if 778 == 351with similar seat count is 25% less efficient per seat then 779.

C: or if 778 less efficient then 351 is close 30% less efficient then 779.



My point here is that it could be interesting to know what is the truth? A few days ago in this thread and also the sunrise thread about quantas, a 350 could never beat a 778 less 779

That was your point? I thought this was your point:

olle wrote:
What a change in this thread in 72 hours.

From A350 breathing its final breath under the unbeatable 777x and now everything only gloomy for the 777x.

Except it wasn't true.


I totally agree, my point was until not too long time ago, and we talking days rather then weeks it was a common knowledge in this forum that 777x was in another level compared to A350-1000. I consider that many here underestimated how fast Airbus have change the A350. Comparing a 350 from 2-3 years back with the 777x and an A350 that is about to be build in 18 month from now when the first 777x gets to customer is two different comperations.

what surprised me most was that I expected A350 to play catchup the next few years and go ahead around 2027 with Neo. Now it seem like A350-1000 is ahead of 778 already and is getting very close to 779 even before EIS of 777x.

With the common knowledge here at A.net a heavier or bigger frame need to be much more capable then the smaller. The A346 vs 777W comes on mind. A346 could carry more load but was more heavy. That did not end well for Airbus.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1275
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:17 am

RickNRoll wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
I feel like if Airbus suddenly announced A350-2000. It would kill B777X entirely.
It possibly could. That would be an expensive risk and a company like Airbus under it's current management is risk averse.


Not really, killing B777X would be their main goal to put A350 as the only large widebody options for airlines after 2020. They already done it with A350-1000ULR to kill B777-8.
Now they need A350-2000 to kill B777-9.

After that they would curb the market and Boeing are left with MAX8/MAX10 and B787-9/-10.
 
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Stitch
Posts: 27247
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:34 am

ewt340 wrote:
After that they would curb the market and Boeing are left with MAX8/MAX10 and B787-9/-10.


Or they push Boeing to launch a clean-sheet NLA (New Large Aircraft) to "kill" the A350-1000 and above.

What's good for the goose, after all.
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 1906
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:38 am

Stitch wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
After that they would curb the market and Boeing are left with MAX8/MAX10 and B787-9/-10.


Or they push Boeing to launch a clean-sheet NLA (New Large Aircraft) to "kill" the A350-1000 and above.

What's good for the goose, after all.



What engineers will be working on this? Those that are currently moved from the 797 to the 737MAX? Or maybe the 778 engineers that are also on the 737MAX problem. Neither company has unlimited engineering resources it seems for such fanciful plans, although I am sure we would like it to be that way.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9682
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:50 am

Stitch wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
After that they would curb the market and Boeing are left with MAX8/MAX10 and B787-9/-10.


Or they push Boeing to launch a clean-sheet NLA (New Large Aircraft) to "kill" the A350-1000 and above.

What's good for the goose, after all.


We are talking about a duopol. Both make the most money if the market share is roughly 50:50 and both use their production capabilities to 100%.

Exhausting the resources in a fight with each other is not in the interest of either of them. And the engine OEMs would probably also not be interested in that fight either. Imho for both the "do nothing" option is very attractive at the moment. A slight MTOW push there, a small up-date here and then make money.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27247
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:39 pm

enzo011 wrote:
What engineers will be working on this? Those that are currently moved from the 797 to the 737MAX? Or maybe the 778 engineers that are also on the 737MAX problem. Neither company has unlimited engineering resources it seems for such fanciful plans, although I am sure we would like it to be that way.


All good points, but the I was replying to ewt340's presumption that Airbus was able to successfully "kill" the 777X program, which means Boeing would be completely out of the over 250-seat long-haul market (anything above the 787-9). Do you honestly believe Boeing would be okay with this? I predicate they would not and therefore they would hire the engineering resources they needed to make VLA a reality.

Of course, if Airbus doesn't "kill" the 777X, then Boeing is still in that market and the need for a VLA is not there, so they would, of course, only spend basic engineering resources on it defining concepts and such (which they likely are now).


seahawk wrote:
We are talking about a duopololy. Both make the most money if the market share is roughly 50:50 and both use their production capabilities to 100%.

Exhausting the resources in a fight with each other is not in the interest of either of them. And the engine OEMs would probably also not be interested in that fight either. Imho for both the "do nothing" option is very attractive at the moment. A slight MTOW push there, a small up-date here and then make money.


I agree with you 100% and have said as much myself on occasion. I found ewt340's scenario unlikely for this very reason, but since they asked a question, I suggested a possible answer.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1275
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:02 pm

Stitch wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
After that they would curb the market and Boeing are left with MAX8/MAX10 and B787-9/-10.


Or they push Boeing to launch a clean-sheet NLA (New Large Aircraft) to "kill" the A350-1000 and above.

What's good for the goose, after all.


LOL, no, looking at the decision they are making in the last couple years like the MAX. We know the shareholders wouldn't be happy with new clean sheet to compete with A350-1000 because the sales wouldn't be as good as B777-300ER.

They would rather improved B787 family and the MAX replacement rather than A350-1000 competition. We haven't even talk about B797.

You honestly think they would put VLA on the table with all their problems and little project they have now?
 
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enzo011
Posts: 1906
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:41 pm

Stitch wrote:
All good points, but the I was replying to ewt340's presumption that Airbus was able to successfully "kill" the 777X program, which means Boeing would be completely out of the over 250-seat long-haul market (anything above the 787-9). Do you honestly believe Boeing would be okay with this? I predicate they would not and therefore they would hire the engineering resources they needed to make VLA a reality.

Of course, if Airbus doesn't "kill" the 777X, then Boeing is still in that market and the need for a VLA is not there, so they would, of course, only spend basic engineering resources on it defining concepts and such (which they likely are now).



Got it, I was very much of the opinion before that both OEMs could just easily design a answer to a problem, but the history of the delayed A350XWB and now how resources at Boeing seems to mean delays to their plan does mean reality hits my assumptions like a rock. I mean it is an easy argument to make that the 787 has more deliveries at the same time as the A350XWB, but it ignores the reality of the program where one was worked on at the time of launch and the other had to wait for resources to be freed. :thumbsup:

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