Hello,

Seems like soon enough we will be saying goodbye to another European carrier: Adria Airways.

It all started with a bad privatization process, misguided expansion plans, launching and cutting routes left and right, acquiring Darwin and its SAABs, operational meltdowns and so on.

On top of that, their finances have taken a turn for the worse so much so that the Slovenian government needed to buy seats on their LJU-BRU route in order to provide them with the capital they need to stay afloat.

Foreign carriers are already preparing for the worse, Transavia has recently launched AMS flights, AF will almost double their flights this winter and they are suspending the code-share agreement while many carriers from the UK are adding seats all the time. This summer BA is launching their own LJU flights, even if only for two months.

JP was founded 58 years ago, more precisely in 1961. They currently have 20 aircraft: 3x A319, CRJ700 x2, CRJ900 x9, SAAB 2000 x6.

https://simpleflying.com/adria-airways- ... -airlines/
https://www.exyuaviation.com/

Not surprise at all and just a matter of time this happens. It will not be the last airline to go out of business this year.

Slovenian market is small and Adria can easily be replaced with LCCs.

LHR, LGW, LTN, STN to BA, EasyJet, Wizz
FRA, MUC, ZRH, VIE is going to Lufthansa group
AMS to Transavia
CDG to Air France
BRU-CRL to Wizz Air
TGD to Montenegro Airlines

So yes there is enough of lcc space for TIR-(Volotea, Air Albania), CPH-(SAS, Norwegian or MMX Wizz air), PRG-(CSA), PRN-(Wizz air or Eurowings), SJJ, SOF-(Bulgaria air or Wizz air) and SKP-(Wizz air).

OU next please.

Adria failed to adapt to the market and needs to go. Shame, as the market has very low cost penetration. Should have kept CRJ900 for high frequency flights to *A hubs (FRA, VIE, MUC, ZRH, BRU), got rid of CRJ700 and Saabs and expanded A319 fleet to connect major European network at low frequency. Instead they have too many aircraft types, poor utilisation and abysmal European network.

Some cr are here in TLL and operate for Nordica / LOT. I wonder what would happen.

Kikko19 wrote:

Some cr are here in TLL and operate for Nordica / LOT. I wonder what would happen.

You're a bit wrong. The CRJ-s that are in TLL are a part of Nordica/LOT fleet and are being used to provideadditional capacity for JP in LJU.

Currently one of the EE/LO CRJ-s is based in LJU flying on behalf of JP.

Actually, right now, no Nordica CRJ is operating for Adria. It has been one of the Nordica ATRs in Ljubljana for the past week or so. Adria kinda bailed Estonian Air 2.0/Nordica out when they started, by partnering up and Nordica was using the Adria booking system and flight numbers for a good amount of time. Recently, a former Nordica exec started as CEO at Adria. Wouldn't be surprised if something is cooking behind the scenes, not sure what exactly.

When they announced the SSJs joining the fleet it was a sign it was falling apart, a very desperate manoeuvre. Even though it was eventually cancelled, to have even entertained the idea for so long said a lot.

GalebG4 wrote:

LHR, LGW, LTN, STN to BA, EasyJet, Wizz
FRA, MUC, ZRH, VIE is going to Lufthansa group
AMS to Transavia
CDG to Air France
BRU-CRL to Wizz Air
TGD to Montenegro Airlines

So yes there is enough of lcc space for TIR-(Volotea, Air Albania), CPH-(SAS, Norwegian or MMX Wizz air), PRG-(CSA), PRN-(Wizz air or Eurowings), SJJ, SOF-(Bulgaria air or Wizz air) and SKP-(Wizz air).

Actually destinations such as PRN, TIA, SOF, SJJ... are there for connecting passengers, I doubt there is any considerable O&D demand. When JP goes bankrupt the little local demand there is can fly via BEG on JU or on OS via VIE. Air Serbia's 12 weekly flights to LJU are perfectly timed for the job.
When JP goes bust I see Wizz Air setting up a base only if the airport and the petrol company agree to lower their prices.

bhxalex wrote:

When they announced the SSJs joining the fleet it was a sign it was falling apart, a very desperate manoeuvre. Even though it was eventually cancelled, to have even entertained the idea for so long said a lot.

The only reason why JP even negotiated with SSJ was because they wanted them to invest in the airline. Imagine how bad the situation must be if even they decided to stay away.

Many cancellations even today, morning FRA as well as afternoon SKP are cancelled. HRG yesterday was delayed by six hours, Valencia was moved from 22.00 tonight to 10.00 tomorrow morning, AMS is delayed by five hours... Not good, not good at all.

I understood from some local pilots that Adria wanted the SSJ deal as follows;

- Free SSJs
- €10 million “investment”

In return Adria would set up a maintenance facility/hub for SSJs, Sukhois door to Europe. Hearsay, but that would still be a ridiculous deal for Sukhoi to make, so I’m not surprised it didn’t happen. They could have maybe pulled it off before the SSJ fell out of favor with Brussels Airlines and Cityjet.

I think it would be very positive for Slovenia if Adria goes bankrupt. Adria for LJU is like a dog in the manger. If they go belly up, Lufthansa Group will take over FRA/MUC/ZRH/VIE (and maybe BRU for the EU) warranting connectivity, in addition to existing AF to CDG or TK to IST.

Ryanair or Wizzair can have a deal with Fraport, open a base and start new unserved routes. IMO LJU has three major selling points:

1. It has an untapped tourism potential as city-break destination (no Ryanair effect yet).
2. With no FR/W6 in ZAG and little in TRS, they could attract passengers from Trieste or Zagreb with low fares.
3. Slovenia is relatively wealthy so it could stimulate local market.

I hope not. The brand is iconic, and it would be sad for many. However it's looking increasingly likely, and the market is hard to make a profit out of, especially when you're going up against the big LCCs

jarlog wrote:

Kikko19 wrote:

Some cr are here in TLL and operate for Nordica / LOT. I wonder what would happen.

You're a bit wrong. The CRJ-s that are in TLL are a part of Nordica/LOT fleet and are being used to provideadditional capacity for JP in LJU.

Currently one of the EE/LO CRJ-s is based in LJU flying on behalf of JP.

i'll send the pictures of adria planes in tll, it just happens that my office has windows on TLL terminal. maybe the adria cr was just visiting then

Kikko19 wrote:

jarlog wrote:

Kikko19 wrote:

Some cr are here in TLL and operate for Nordica / LOT. I wonder what would happen.

You're a bit wrong. The CRJ-s that are in TLL are a part of Nordica/LOT fleet and are being used to provideadditional capacity for JP in LJU.

Currently one of the EE/LO CRJ-s is based in LJU flying on behalf of JP.

i'll send the pictures of adria planes in tll, it just happens that my office has windows on TLL terminal. maybe the adria cr was just visiting then

They haven't been here in a while but they used to come here visit us.

Source: office on the actual tarmac.

jarlog wrote:

Kikko19 wrote:

jarlog wrote:

You're a bit wrong. The CRJ-s that are in TLL are a part of Nordica/LOT fleet and are being used to provideadditional capacity for JP in LJU.

Currently one of the EE/LO CRJ-s is based in LJU flying on behalf of JP.

i'll send the pictures of adria planes in tll, it just happens that my office has windows on TLL terminal. maybe the adria cr was just visiting then

They haven't been here in a while but they used to come here visit us.

Source: office on the actual tarmac.

Roger that!

What is the status of exDarwin Saabs? Did Adria make any use of them?

konkret wrote:

What is the status of exDarwin Saabs? Did Adria make any use of them?

I think I read somewhere that they struggled with finding pilots to fly them. They were sitting in LJU for a long time. I checked today's departures and I see they operated ZRH and VIE with them.

As for Adria, they could have become a sort of Balkan airBaltic, running a minor hub in LJU. In stead they went from one strategy to the other, bleeding money and losing focus. Now they are on life support and I fear they are taking their finals breaths. I don't know how they will survive this winter when cash reserves were already tight last year. The Slovenian authorities almost shut them down because of it. Their owner, 4K, had to provide them with a cash injection.

I am just looking at their afternoon wave (16.06) and there seems to be another gem: Amsterdam, scheduled: 16.55, planned: 22.30. (returned planned at: 21.45, expected: 03.00).

lhrsfosyd91 wrote:

OU next please.

Personally I would prefer both Adria Airways and Croatia Airlines to keep flying. More variety in the air and at airports is always appreciated, at least by aviation enthusiasts like me.

Currently, LH doesn't fly to Slovenia on its own metal with any of their subsidiary. Are they prepared, with the induction of metal being returned from Lauda, to step in with Eurowings or Lufthansa CityLine if and when JP collapses? I'm reading the article right now in the OP...and I can't blame the Swiss authorities for being suspicious of the Darwin purchase and closure.

I know that they were hoping for cheap SSJs, but the BCS1/3 would have been better suited for them to replace their current A319s, which are leased. Going from one strategy to another also didn't help.

I also don't believe JP will be the last one to fall, although I thought that JP would outlast OU.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

Currently, LH doesn't fly to Slovenia on its own metal with any of their subsidiary. Are they prepared, with the induction of metal being returned from Lauda, to step in with Eurowings or Lufthansa CityLine if and when JP collapses? I'm reading the article right now in the OP...and I can't blame the Swiss authorities for being suspicious of the Darwin purchase and closure.

I know that they were hoping for cheap SSJs, but the BCS1/3 would have been better suited for them to replace their current A319s, which are leased. Going from one strategy to another also didn't help.

I also don't believe JP will be the last one to fall, although I thought that JP would outlast OU.

If JP goes bankrupt then the real question is how profitable LJU would be for Star Alliance carriers? I am sure LH and OS would enter with their own metal but I doubt there would be as many flights as there are today. In 2018 both MUC and VIE saw their numbers fall from LJU as, I suppose, certain passengers shifted to CDG and AMS. AF-KL is becoming more aggressive in ex-YU, especially in Serbia and Slovenia, two markets where LH Group dominated for years, if not decades.

JP could have outlived OU, I think everyone expected it to be so but JP really made some major mistakes in recent years which cost them more than they could afford. They are paying the price now. Like I wrote earlier, they should have kept on investing in LJU as a hub in stead of mindlessly expanding in Lodz, Pristina, Tirana and God knows where else.