FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3M FLL-TLH JUL 1.5>1.0[1.5]
3M TLH-TPA JUL 1.6>1.3[1.7]

4B ALS-CVN JUL 0>0.8[0] AUG 0>0.9[0] SEP 0>0.9[0]
4B CEZ-TEX JUL 0>0.9[0] AUG 0>0.9[0] SEP 0>0.9[0] OCT 0>0.9[0]
4B CVN-DFW JAN 0>0.3[3]

7H BET-NME JUL 1.4>0.9[1.4] AUG 1.4>0.9[1.4]
7H BET-TNK JUL 1.4>0.9[0] AUG 1.4>0.9[0]
7H MYU-NME JUL 1.0>0.5[0] AUG 1.0>0.5[0]
7H MYU-OOK JUL 1.0>0.5[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.5[1.0]
7H OOK-TNK JUL 1.4>0.9[0.4] AUG 1.4>0.9[0.4]

AA BDL-PHL DEC 6>5[5] JAN 6>3[4] FEB 6>3[5] MAR 6>3[5]
AA DEN-PHL DEC 3>2[2.0] JAN 3>1.0[0.9] FEB 3>1.0[1.4] MAR 3>1.0[2]
AA DFW-GSO JAN 3>2[1.9] FEB 3>1.8[1.9] MAR 3>1.8[3]
AA DFW-LFT FEB 5>4[4] MAR 5>4[4]
AA DFW-SPS JAN 4>3[3] FEB 4>3[3] MAR 4>3[3]
AA DFW-TXK FEB 4>3[3] MAR 4>3[3]
AA LAS-PHL DEC 4>3[2] JAN 4>2[2.0] FEB 4>2[2] MAR 4>2[2]
AA LAX-SFO SEP 8>7[12]
The old days of USAir return
*AA LGA-PHL DEC 2>3[2] JAN 2>4[3] FEB 2>4[3] MAR 2>4[3]
AA MIA-SAP DEC 1.9>1.5[2]
AA MIA-TGU DEC 1.8>1.5[1.9]
AA MSY-PHL JAN 2>3[1.6] FEB 2>3[1.7] MAR 2>3[1.8]
AA PHL-RSW JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[4] MAR 3>4[4]
AA PHL-STL DEC 5>4[4] JAN 5>3[3] FEB 5>3[3] MAR 5>3[4]

AC DEN-YUL SEP 2>1.1[2]

*AI BOM-JFK JUL 0.4>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0] SEP 0.4>0[0] OCT 0.4>0.1[0]

AS ANC-SEA OCT 14>13[13]
*AS BWI-SAN OCT 1.0>0[1.0]
AS DEN-SEA OCT 6>5[4]
AS PHX-SEA OCT 6>5[5]
AS SEA-SFO AUG 13>14[11] OCT 13>12[11]

AV GUA-MIA JUL 0.8>0.4[0.3] AUG 0.8>0[0.8] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[0.8] MAR 1.0>0[0.8]

B6 DEN-JFK SEP 1.8>1.1[2.0] OCT 1.5>0.8[1.7]
B6 FLL-GYE SEP 1.0>0.8[0]
B6 FLL-SAN SEP 0.4>0.6[0.7] OCT 0.3>0.5[0.5]
B6 JFK-LGB JAN 1.2>1.9[1.9] FEB 0.4>0.7[1.9]
B6 LGB-SLC FEB 1.6>1.2[2]

I think they cutback ONT previously and now some of it is going back to LAX
*CI LAX-TPE NOV 1.0>1.4[1.0] DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0] JAN 1.0>1.5[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.4[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0]

CZ CAN-JFK OCT 1.5>1.1[1.8]

DL ATL-CID JAN 3>1.9[2] FEB 3>1.8[2]
DL ATL-MSP MAR 11>12[11]
DL ATL-SAN MAR 6>5[5]
DL ATL-SJD DEC 0.9>1.1[0.8]
DL AUS-DTW OCT 3>4[3] NOV 2>3[2] DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3] MAR 3>4[3]
*DL DTW-HNL JAN 0.5>0.1[0] FEB 0.4>0.1[0] MAR 0.4>0[0]
DL DTW-HPN MAR 4>5[4]
DL DTW-RDU MAR 4>5[4]
DL DTW-RIC MAR 3>4[3]
DL IND-JFK JAN 1.1>2.0[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0]
DL JFK-ORD JAN 4>5[4] FEB 4>5[4] MAR 4>5[4]
DL JFK-RIC JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3] MAR 3>4[3]

F9 DEN-FLL AUG 0.8>1.0[0]

G4 AUS-LAS SEP 0.6>0.4[0.6]
*G4 PSM-SAV SEP 0.3>0[0] OCT 0.3>0[0] NOV 0.3>0[0]

*HX HKG-LAX JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.6[1.0] MAR 0.9>0.5[1.0]

LF BKW-CLT OCT 0.8>1.7[0] NOV 0>0.9[0]
LF BKW-PKB OCT 0.8>1.7[0] NOV 0>0.9[0]
LF BNA-TUP OCT 0.1>3[4] NOV 0>1.3[4]
LF STL-TBN OCT 0.8>1.7[0] NOV 0>0.9[0]

LV EWR-ORY JAN 0.6>0.5[0.6]

*MF SEA-SZX NOV 0.4>0[0.3] DEC 0.4>0[0.4] JAN 0.5>0[0.3] FEB 0.4>0[0.3] MAR 0.4>0[0.3]

Extension. FEB is a partial month. I would compare JAN to last year. If it was the same in JAN last year it isn't shown. Consider it an Easter Egg hunt.
NK ACY-FLL DEC 1.5>3[3] FEB 0>1.1[3]
NK ACY-MCO DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK ACY-MYR DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ACY-PBI DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ACY-RSW DEC 1.0>1.8[1.8] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK ACY-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ATL-AUS DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK ATL-BOS DEC 0.3>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.4[0.5]
NK ATL-BWI DEC 1.0>1.8[1.9] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK ATL-CLE DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK ATL-DFW DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ATL-DTW DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK ATL-EWR DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ATL-FLL DEC 2>5[5] JAN 0>4[5] FEB 0>1.5[5]
NK ATL-IAH DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ATL-LAS DEC 1.2>2[1.0] JAN 0>2[1.0] FEB 0>0.8[1.0]
NK ATL-LAX DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ATL-MCO DEC 1.0>1.8[2] JAN 0>1.7[2.0] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK ATL-MSP DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ATL-MSY DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ATL-ORD DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ATL-PHL DEC 0.5>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ATL-TPA DEC 1.2>2[1.0] JAN 0>2[1.0] FEB 0>0.8[1.0]
NK AUS-BWI DEC 0.4>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.7[0] FEB 0>0.3[0.5]
NK AUS-DEN DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0.5]
NK AUS-DTW DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0.5]
NK AUS-FLL DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0.5]
NK AUS-LAS DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0.5]
NK AUS-LAX DEC 0.4>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.7[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
NK AUS-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0.5]
NK AUS-MSY DEC 0.4>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.7[0] FEB 0>0.3[0.5]
NK AUS-ORD DEC 0.4>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.7[0] FEB 0>0.3[0.5]
NK AVL-FLL DEC 0.5>0.9[0.5] JAN 0>1.0[0.5] FEB 0>0.4[0.5]
NK AVL-TPA DEC 0.2>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
NK AXM-FLL JAN 0>0.5[0.4]
NK BDL-FLL DEC 1.0>1.8[1.8] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK BDL-MCO DEC 1.0>1.8[1.8] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK BDL-RSW DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK BDL-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BNA-BWI DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK BNA-FLL DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK BNA-LAS DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK BNA-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK BNA-MSY DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK BNA-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK BOG-FLL DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BOG-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BOS-BWI DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK BOS-FLL DEC 1.0>1.8[1.8] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK BOS-LAS DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BOS-MCO DEC 1.2>2[1.8] JAN 0>2[1.8] FEB 0>0.8[1.9]
NK BOS-MSY DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK BOS-MYR DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BOS-PBI DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BOS-RDU DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK BOS-RSW DEC 0.6>1.5[1.4] JAN 0>1.2[2] FEB 0>0.4[2]
NK BOS-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BQN-FLL DEC 0.2>0.4[0.5] JAN 0>0.3[0.5]
NK BQN-MCO DEC 0.1>0.4[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
NK BUR-LAS DEC 1.7>3[0] JAN 0>3[0] FEB 0>1.2[0]
NK BWI-CLT DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK BWI-CUN DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK BWI-DEN DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK BWI-DFW DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BWI-DTW DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] JAN 0>1.0[1.5] FEB 0>0.4[1.5]
NK BWI-FLL DEC 1.6>3[3] FEB 0>1.1[3]
NK BWI-IAH DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BWI-JAX DEC 0.4>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.7[0] FEB 0>0.3[0.5]
NK BWI-LAS DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BWI-LAX DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BWI-MBJ DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK BWI-MCO DEC 1.4>3[3] JAN 0>2[3] FEB 0>1.0[3]
NK BWI-MSP DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BWI-MSY DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BWI-ORD DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BWI-RDU DEC 1.0>1.8[0] JAN 0>1.7[0] FEB 0>0.7[0]
NK BWI-RSW DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK BWI-SJU DEC 0.2>0.4[0] JAN 0>0.4[0]
NK BWI-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.4]
NK CAK-MCO DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK CAK-TPA DEC 0.2>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
NK CLE-FLL DEC 0.9>1.3[1.5] JAN 0>1.3[1.2] FEB 0>0.6[1.0]
NK CLE-LAS DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK CLE-LAX DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK CLE-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[1.5] JAN 0>1.0[1.2] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK CLE-MSY DEC 0.2>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
NK CLE-RSW DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK CLE-TPA DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK CLO-FLL DEC 0.5>1.0[0.4] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK CLT-EWR DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK CLT-FLL DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK CLT-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK CMH-FLL DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK CMH-LAS DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK CMH-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK CMH-RSW DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK CMH-TPA DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK CTG-FLL DEC 0.4>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
NK CUN-DFW DEC 0.2>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
NK CUN-DTW DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK CUN-FLL DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK CUN-ORD DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK DEN-DFW DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DEN-DTW DEC 0.4>0.8[0.9] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK DEN-FLL DEC 1.0>1.8[1.6] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK DEN-IAH DEC 0.6>1.4[1.4] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
*NK DEN-LAS DEC 1.0>1.8[1.0] JAN 0>1.7[1.0] FEB 0>0.7[1.0]
NK DEN-LAX DEC 0.4>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.7[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
NK DEN-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0.0]
NK DEN-MSY DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0.5]
NK DEN-ORD DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DFW-DTW DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DFW-FLL DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK DFW-LAS DEC 1.7>3[3] FEB 0>1.2[3]
NK DFW-LAX DEC 1.0>1.8[2] JAN 0>1.7[2] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK DFW-LGA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DFW-MCO DEC 1.2>2[3] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK DFW-ORD DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DFW-PHL DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DFW-PHX DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DFW-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DTW-FLL DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK DTW-IAH DEC 0.6>1.0[1.4] JAN 0>1.0[1.3] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DTW-JAX DEC 0.6>1.0[0.4] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DTW-LAS DEC 1.5>3[3] FEB 0>1.1[3]
NK DTW-LAX DEC 0.6>1.0[1.4] JAN 0>1.0[1.8] FEB 0>0.4[1.5]
NK DTW-LGA DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK DTW-MBJ DEC 0.1>0.3[0.2] JAN 0>0.4[0.5]
NK DTW-MCI DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DTW-MCO DEC 1.9>4[4] JAN 0>3[4] FEB 0>1.4[4]
NK DTW-MSP DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK DTW-MSY DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.1]
NK DTW-PBI DEC 0.1>0.4[0.2] JAN 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
NK DTW-RDU DEC 0.4>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.7[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
NK DTW-RSW DEC 1.6>3[3] JAN 0>3[4] FEB 0>1.1[4]
NK DTW-TPA DEC 1.5>3[3] FEB 0>1.1[3]
NK EWR-FLL DEC 1.4>2[2] FEB 0>1.0[2]
NK EWR-IAH DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK EWR-LAS DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK EWR-MCO DEC 1.5>3[3] FEB 0>1.1[3]
NK EWR-MSY DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK EWR-MYR DEC 0.3>0.5[0.6] JAN 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
NK EWR-RSW DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK EWR-SDQ DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK EWR-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK FLL-GSO DEC 0.2>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
NK FLL-GUA DEC 0.5>0.9[0.9] JAN 0>0.9[1.0] FEB 0>0.3[1.0]
NK FLL-GYE DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] JAN 0>1.0[0.8] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-IAG DEC 0.3>0.7[0.7] JAN 0>0.6[0.7] FEB 0>0.2[0.8]
NK FLL-IAH DEC 0.6>1.0[1.6] JAN 0>1.0[1.2] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-JAX DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0.5]
NK FLL-KIN DEC 0.3>0.7[0.7] JAN 0>0.6[0.7] FEB 0>0.2[0.7]
NK FLL-LAS DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-LAX DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-LBE DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK FLL-LGA DEC 2>4[4] FEB 0>1.7[4]
NK FLL-LIM DEC 0.1>0.5[0.7] JAN 0>0.3[0.8]
NK FLL-MBJ DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[1.0] FEB 0>0.3[1.0]
NK FLL-MCO DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK FLL-MDE DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-MGA DEC 0.6>1.0[0.6] JAN 0>1.0[0.5] FEB 0>0.4[0.6]
NK FLL-MSP DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-MSY DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK FLL-MYR DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-ORD DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK FLL-PAP DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[1.0] FEB 0>0.3[1.0]
NK FLL-PBG DEC 0.3>0.7[0.7] JAN 0>0.6[0.7] FEB 0>0.2[0.8]
NK FLL-PHL DEC 1.1>2.0[1.9] JAN 0>2[1.8] FEB 0>0.8[1.9]
NK FLL-PIT DEC 0.5>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-PTY DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-PUJ DEC 0.1>0.3[0.3]
NK FLL-RDU DEC 0.4>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.7[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
NK FLL-RIC DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-SAL DEC 0.3>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.5[0.4]
NK FLL-SAP DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-SDQ DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK FLL-SJO DEC 1.1>2[1.4] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK FLL-SJU DEC 0.3>0.8[1.0] JAN 0>1.0[1.5] FEB 0>0.4[1.2]
NK FLL-STI DEC 0.3>0.5[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
NK FLL-STT DEC 0.3>0.5[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.5]
NK FLL-TPA DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK GSO-TPA DEC 0.2>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
NK GUA-IAH DEC 0.3>0.5[0.6] JAN 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
NK GUA-MCO DEC 0.3>0.6[0.6] JAN 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
NK IAH-LAS DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK IAH-LAX DEC 1.0>1.8[2] JAN 0>1.7[2] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK IAH-MCO DEC 1.0>2[2] JAN 0>1.9[2] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK IAH-MSY DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK IAH-ORD DEC 1.0>1.8[1.9] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK IAH-SAL DEC 0.3>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.4[0.5]
NK IAH-SAN DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK IAH-SAP DEC 0.3>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
NK IAH-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK IND-LAS DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK IND-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK IND-RSW DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK IND-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK JAX-ORD DEC 0.4>0.8[0.4] JAN 0>0.7[1.0] FEB 0>0.3[1.0]
NK KIN-MCO JAN 0>0.5[0]
NK LAS-LAX DEC 1.5>3[3] FEB 0>1.1[3]
NK LAS-MCI DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LAS-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LAS-MSP DEC 1.0>1.8[1.9] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK LAS-MSY DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LAS-OAK DEC 1.5>3[3] FEB 0>1.1[3]
NK LAS-ORD DEC 1.3>3[3] JAN 0>2[3] FEB 0>0.9[3]
NK LAS-PDX DEC 1.0>1.8[1.9] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK LAS-PHL DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LAS-PIT DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LAS-SAN DEC 1.5>3[3] FEB 0>1.1[3]
NK LAS-SEA DEC 1.5>3[3] FEB 0>1.1[3]
NK LAS-SMF DEC 1.7>3[0] JAN 0>3[0] FEB 0>1.2[0]
NK LAS-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LAX-MCI DEC 0.4>0.8[0.9] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK LAX-MSP DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LAX-MSY DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LAX-OAK DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK LAX-ORD DEC 1.2>2[2] FEB 0>0.8[2]
NK LAX-PHL DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LAX-PIT DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LBE-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK LBE-TPA DEC 0.2>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
NK LGA-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK LGA-MYR DEC 0.6>1.0[2] JAN 0>1.0[2] FEB 0>0.4[2]
NK LGA-ORD DEC 0.6>1.0[2] JAN 0>1.0[2] FEB 0>0.4[2]
NK LGA-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK MBJ-MCO DEC 0.3>0.5[0] JAN 0>0.4[0]
NK MCI-MCO DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK MCO-MSP DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK MCO-MSY DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK MCO-ORD DEC 1.0>1.8[1.4] JAN 0>1.7[2] FEB 0>0.7[2]
NK MCO-PHL DEC 1.6>3[3] FEB 0>1.1[3]
NK MCO-PIT DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK MCO-RDU DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK MCO-RIC DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK MCO-SDQ DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK MCO-SJO DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK MCO-SJU DEC 0.4>0.9[1.3] JAN 0>0.8[1.6] FEB 0>0.3[1.2]
NK MSP-PHX DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK MSP-RSW DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK MSP-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK MSY-ORD DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK MSY-RDU DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK MSY-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ORD-PHX DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK ORD-RDU DEC 0.6>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
NK ORD-RSW DEC 1.0>1.8[1.8] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK ORD-SAN DEC 0.4>0.8[0.9] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK ORD-TPA DEC 1.0>1.8[1.8] JAN 0>1.7[1.8] FEB 0>0.7[1.9]
NK PHL-SJU DEC 0.2>0.4[0] JAN 0>0.4[0]
NK PHL-TPA DEC 0.3>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.5]
NK PIT-RSW DEC 0.4>0.8[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
NK PIT-TPA DEC 0.6>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
NK SJU-TPA DEC 0.2>0.4[0] JAN 0>0.4[0]

O6 GRU-JFK JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[0.7] NOV 1.0>0[0.8] DEC 1.0>0[1.0]
O6 GRU-MIA JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[0.9] NOV 1.0>0[0.9] DEC 1.0>0[1.6]

TOM LGW-SFB NOV 0>0.3[0.2]

UA IAH-RIC DEC 1.6>3[1.6] JAN 1.2>2[1.0] FEB 1.6>3[1.0] MAR 2>3[1.0]
UA ORD-PSP DEC 0.8>1.0[1.5]
UA ORD-SAT DEC 3>4[3]

VC AUS-BHM OCT 0.5>0[0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.6>0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0] MAR 0.6>0[0]
VC BHM-PIT OCT 0.5>0[0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.6>0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0] MAR 0.6>0[0]
VC JAN-SFB JUL 0.3>0[0.6] AUG 0.3>0[0.6] SEP 0.3>0[0.6] OCT 0.3>0[0.5] NOV 0.4>0[0.6] DEC 0.4>0[0.6] JAN 0.6>0[0.5] FEB 0.6>0[0.5] MAR 0.6>0[0.6]

MAX Roll-backs.
WN ALB-DEN AUG 1.0>0.2[1.0]
WN ATL-BOS AUG 1.0>0.2[3]
WN ATL-IAD AUG 3>1.9[1.9]
WN ATL-LAS AUG 3>1.9[3]
WN ATL-LAX AUG 3>2.0[3]
WN AUS-RDU AUG 1.0>0.2[0]
WN AUS-SFO AUG 0.7>0[1.0]
WN BHM-HOU AUG 1.8>2[1.9]
WN BHM-LAS AUG 0.8>0.0[1.0]
WN BNA-BUR AUG 1.0>0.2[0]
WN BNA-SJC AUG 1.0>0.2[0]
WN BOS-MCI AUG 0.8>0.0[1.8]
WN BUF-DEN AUG 1.0>0.2[0]
WN BUR-MDW AUG 1.7>0.9[0]
WN BWI-PHX AUG 3>2[3]
WN BWI-SAT AUG 2>1.5[2]
WN EWR-OAK AUG 0.7>0[1.0]
WN EWR-SAN AUG 0.7>0[1.0]
WN FLL-STL AUG 1.9>3[1.9]
WN HOU-PHL AUG 1.0>0.2[0]
WN HOU-SLC AUG 0.9>0.1[0.1]
WN HOU-SMF AUG 0.9>0.1[0]
WN HOU-TPA AUG 3>2[3]
WN IND-OAK AUG 0.6>0[1.0]
WN LAX-OMA AUG 0.7>0[1.0]
WN LAX-PDX AUG 2>1.8[3]
WN LAX-PIT AUG 0.6>0[0.8]
WN LAX-TPA AUG 0.7>0.1[0.8]
WN MBJ-MDW AUG 0.6>0.3[0.6]
WN MCO-SAN AUG 0.7>0.0[1.0]
WN MDW-PDX AUG 1.7>0.9[3]
WN MDW-PUJ AUG 0.5>0.2[0.6]
WN MDW-SEA AUG 3>2[3]
WN MSP-OAK AUG 0.7>0.1[1.0]
WN OAK-SAT AUG 0.9>0.2[1.0]
WN SAN-STL AUG 2>1.6[2]
WN SJD-SNA AUG 0.9>0.3[1.0]
WN SLC-STL AUG 0.2>0.0[0]

Only 3 flight a day between PHL and BDL? Wow, that’s such a change from past years. Are they eliminating some banks?

As always, thanks for my favorite Sunday morning read..

I think VC is done.. haven't seen their a/c move from the SFB hangar in a long time.. according to flightaware, it has been over 2 weeks since anything has been airborne for them

N757ST wrote:

Only 3 flight a day between PHL and BDL? Wow, that’s such a change from past years. Are they eliminating some banks?

They just completely slash PHL during the winter. PHL-DEN 1x, PHL-LAS 2x...though this year they added the 763 on one flight.

N757ST wrote:

Only 3 flight a day between PHL and BDL? Wow, that’s such a change from past years. Are they eliminating some banks?

I assume it's now mainline if it wasn't before, but that is a shocker. Sure it's not bank driven. I guess it wasn't profitable enough?

nkops wrote:

As always, thanks for my favorite Sunday morning read..

I think VC is done.. haven't seen their a/c move from the SFB hangar in a long time.. according to flightaware, it has been over 2 weeks since anything has been airborne for them

Agreed

SEA is way over served to Asia. Not surprising to see MF pull out.

enilria wrote:

I think they cutback ONT previously and now some of it is going back to LAX
*CI LAX-TPE NOV 1.0>1.4[1.0] DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0] JAN 1.0>1.5[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.4[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0]

No cuts. TPE-ONT stays daily while being upgauged to 77W; LAX goes 10 weekly, 3 of which are A359.

enilria wrote:

N757ST wrote:

Only 3 flight a day between PHL and BDL? Wow, that’s such a change from past years. Are they eliminating some banks?

I assume it's now mainline if it wasn't before, but that is a shocker. Sure it's not bank driven. I guess it wasn't profitable enough?

Too early to tell aircraft. Right now it's 1x 145, 1x 175, 1x CR7...no mainline. But I imagine this will change several times in the next 6 months.

Thanks again enilria

Is aa actively trying to kill lax sfo? 7x daily has to be the lowest they have had on that route ever.

enilria wrote:

DL AUS-DTW OCT 3>4[3] NOV 2>3[2] DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3] MAR 3>4[3]

In the fall of 2015 this was 2.5 at best with CR9/E75’s. Now it’s 4 319/20’s along with NK and F9. Awesome!

I would expect to see MSP not far behind for at least the summer months.

Thanks as always!

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria

Is aa actively trying to kill lax sfo? 7x daily has to be the lowest they have had on that route ever.

They've been converting it from entirely hourly regional shuttle to almost all mainline, but every 2-3 hours. Extremely competitive route and probably need those E175s elsewhere

AA LGA PHL

Four flights isn’t that much... we will watch the trendline and see if it moves into a full slot squatting mode

The problem with dehubbing NYC for PHL is there is broad acknowledgement that there is next to zero demand for air travel between NYC and PHL and very few flights.

As they cut NYC for PHL, the reality must be settling in at HQ that they just lose the NYC customer altogether. That is a big problem.

They have put themselves between a rock and a hard place.

From NYC

They are no longer relevant on transcons outside of LA

They are no longer relevant to Europe

They are no longer relevant to the Islands

LGA has also started to see cuts to the all important Shuttle

Few flights and few pax to their PHL hub down the road

They can add back and lose more money

They can stay put and lose money

They can cut further and lose NYC to anything outside their hubs

What to do?

ericm2031 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria

Is aa actively trying to kill lax sfo? 7x daily has to be the lowest they have had on that route ever.

They've been converting it from entirely hourly regional shuttle to almost all mainline, but every 2-3 hours. Extremely competitive route and probably need those E175s elsewhere

I thought they used to be mainline with good frequency and then downgauged to all regionals. And now back to mainline with much lower frequency. I could be entirely wrong on that.

Not sure how this is not going to hurt them

clrd4t8koff wrote:

SEA is way over served to Asia. Not surprising to see MF pull out.

Agreed, I never really understood this route to begin with..Even SFO does not have a direct to SZX, why could SEA support it?

clrd4t8koff wrote:

SEA is way over served to Asia. Not surprising to see MF pull out.

Not surprised to see it go as it likely had heavy subsidy support, but it's a drop in the bucket on SEA-Asia.

tcaeyx wrote:

enilria wrote:

I think they cutback ONT previously and now some of it is going back to LAX
*CI LAX-TPE NOV 1.0>1.4[1.0] DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0] JAN 1.0>1.5[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.4[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0]

No cuts. TPE-ONT stays daily while being upgauged to 77W; LAX goes 10 weekly, 3 of which are A359.

I was about to say lol! I second this. There's no cuts at ONT, and even went back daily last November. They've only upgauged to 77W for capacity and cargo, and only bringing back CI06/CI05 with the A359 for MFW afternoons. even CI07/CI08 is seeing service with the A359 on every Sunday while the rest of the week with the 77W.

I was always surprised that MF ran Shenzhen-Seattle instead of from Xiamen or Fuzhou. It’ll be interesting to see what they do with the frames on the route.

Wow - AS cutting BWI-SAN route, wonder if that is an omen of things to come for the AS SAN focus city. I know a lot of loyal AS fliers in SD rely on that flight for their DC work and personal needs. I know their EWR and BOS routes aren’t doing too great either according to fare data posted by other members on here.

tcaeyx wrote:

enilria wrote:

I think they cutback ONT previously and now some of it is going back to LAX
*CI LAX-TPE NOV 1.0>1.4[1.0] DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0] JAN 1.0>1.5[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.4[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0]

No cuts. TPE-ONT stays daily while being upgauged to 77W; LAX goes 10 weekly, 3 of which are A359.

My mistake. Looks like the loads have gotten better.

T100
Jul 2018 64
Aug 2018 73
Sep 2018 70
Oct 2018 81
Nov 2018 84
Dec 2018 80

usairways85 wrote:

enilria wrote:

N757ST wrote:

Only 3 flight a day between PHL and BDL? Wow, that’s such a change from past years. Are they eliminating some banks?

I assume it's now mainline if it wasn't before, but that is a shocker. Sure it's not bank driven. I guess it wasn't profitable enough?

Too early to tell aircraft. Right now it's 1x 145, 1x 175, 1x CR7...no mainline. But I imagine this will change several times in the next 6 months.

Then I wonder if it is an error. That makes no sense.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria

tphuang wrote:

Is aa actively trying to kill lax sfo? 7x daily has to be the lowest they have had on that route ever.

ericm2031 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria

Is aa actively trying to kill lax sfo? 7x daily has to be the lowest they have had on that route ever.

They've been converting it from entirely hourly regional shuttle to almost all mainline, but every 2-3 hours. Extremely competitive route and probably need those E175s elsewhere

Fewer gates, bigger planes?

jfklganyc wrote:

As they cut NYC for PHL, the reality must be settling in at HQ that they just lose the NYC customer altogether. That is a big problem.

That's an interesting theory. OTOH, they seem like a feather blowing in the wind.

jfklganyc wrote:

From NYC

They are no longer relevant on transcons outside of LA

They are no longer relevant to Europe

They are no longer relevant to the Islands

LGA has also started to see cuts to the all important Shuttle

Few flights and few pax to their PHL hub down the road

They can add back and lose more money

They can stay put and lose money

They can cut further and lose NYC to anything outside their hubs

What to do?

But wait, it's all just JFK runway construction. LOL

gunsontheroof wrote:

clrd4t8koff wrote:

SEA is way over served to Asia. Not surprising to see MF pull out.

Not surprised to see it go as it likely had heavy subsidy support, but it's a drop in the bucket on SEA-Asia.

I bet the subsidy was $30m which they spent in 50 days probably.

phxa340 wrote:

Wow - AS cutting BWI-SAN route, wonder if that is an omen of things to come for the AS SAN focus city. I know a lot of loyal AS fliers in SD rely on that flight for their DC work and personal needs. I know their EWR and BOS routes aren’t doing too great either according to fare data posted by other members on here.

Only for a month. I think that might be another route that falls to the change in leadership, but one month doesn't prove anything yet.

phxa340 wrote:

Wow - AS cutting BWI-SAN route, wonder if that is an omen of things to come for the AS SAN focus city. I know a lot of loyal AS fliers in SD rely on that flight for their DC work and personal needs. I know their EWR and BOS routes aren’t doing too great either according to fare data posted by other members on here.

It's only reported as being cut for the month of October. It comes back on NOV 5th, very low fares dont bode well though....

usairways85 wrote:

They just completely slash PHL during the winter. PHL-DEN 1x, PHL-LAS 2x...though this year they added the 763 on one flight.

I think the PHL-LAS reduction is a bit surprising. The winter is a relatively good time of the year to visit LAS although AA has a ton of capacity through ORD/DFW/CLT.

With This on going MAX grounding I don't Even know why WN didn't just publish a flight schedule until January it could operate Without the MAX. It's losing a lot of customers and their loyalty with this add and take away approach. Someone dropping the ball at WN. Kinda embarrassing because it's not like they don't know what's going on. Keep the MAX out of the schedule until the FAA officially releases the aircraft back in service then and only then add reduced service back to the schedule.

Flyguy

What's up with 4B (Boutique Air) doing ALS-CVN? Appears they need a link between their DEN and DFW hubs however ALS has been running with PC-12's and CVN with BE-350's. And the flights are all point to point, i.e. they are not thru flights DEN-CVN or ALS-DFW however the schedules are set up where one can connect at either ALS or CVN (same aircraft). Boutique first started with DEN-ALS-ABQ that connected with ABQ-CNM-DFW, all PC-12's, but dropped it last year. Seems like that should work much better than ALS-CVN. Who knows the big picture here?

phxa340 wrote:

Wow - AS cutting BWI-SAN route, wonder if that is an omen of things to come for the AS SAN focus city. I know a lot of loyal AS fliers in SD rely on that flight for their DC work and personal needs. I know their EWR and BOS routes aren’t doing too great either according to fare data posted by other members on here.

That's a long route that would tie up a plane all day for a round trip. WN also flies this and is the dominant carrier in both markets.

clrd4t8koff wrote:

SEA is way over served to Asia. Not surprising to see MF pull out.

That's too bad...but I totally agree that SEA is way over-served to Asia. With CX going to HKG (and going daily next month), I'm sure it is taking traffic away from MF. Ironically, MF increased their SEA-SZX frequency from 2X weekly to 3X weekly for the summer (adding the Wed departure). SEA is also getting SQ in September.

Lastly, MF started SEA at beginning of the Asian onslaught.

Get your pics while they last! Maybe it will be transferred to YVR.

jfklganyc wrote:

The problem with dehubbing NYC for PHL is there is broad acknowledgement that there is next to zero demand for air travel between NYC and PHL and very few flights.

As they cut NYC for PHL, the reality must be settling in at HQ that they just lose the NYC customer altogether. That is a big problem.

They have put themselves between a rock and a hard place.

I think AA can make NYC work, but they need to be very strategic about how they serve the NYC market as they probably realize losing contracts in NYC has global impact. A lot of companies in NYC that spends tens of million dollars annually on AA are global companies with multiple locations in many major cities with very broad travel demand. If the current arrangement no longer works in NYC for Company A (a Fortune 500 company or large law firm with their US HQ in NYC) chances are good they will drop AA as preferred airline or if they have some level of exclusivity they will move that exclusivity to a competitor. End result, AA may lose some NYC business, but the ripple effect will impact AA's revenue in multiple markets outside of NYC. UA felt that pain when they exited JFK even though they have a massive hub in EWR.

JFK is profitable for AA now despite the cuts, but I think there are opportunities for AA to modestly rebuild JFK into a highly strategic international hub in conjunction with their joint venture partners offering connection opportunities across Mid-Atlantic/New England/Eastern Canada region and selective non-hub routes in North America. I think the A321XLR will play a role here.

Not trying to point out the obvious but AA's PHL TATL operation is nearly maxed out as the airport simply doesn't have the terminal infrastructure necessary to support a bigger TATL operation. They have to use bus gates for some flights and had to strategically move certain TATL routes to make this operation work.

N757ST wrote:

Only 3 flight a day between PHL and BDL? Wow, that’s such a change from past years. Are they eliminating some banks?

Just a casual observation of AA's PHL operations. It seems as if AA is redirecting lower yielding connections through CLT and re-configuring it's PHL operations somewhat, especially during bad weather seasons. Recently, downgrades (to Piedmont E145s) out of PHL to nearby cities have been real. Maybe I'm wrong on this but I'm seeing a lot more Piedmont on runs to larger cities as the E190s and E175s are getting moved elsewhere. Meanwhile, CLT is on a nice expansion run and it doesn't face the congestion problems of PHL.

wnflyguy wrote:

With This on going MAX grounding I don't Even know why WN didn't just publish a flight schedule until January it could operate Without the MAX. It's losing a lot of customers and their loyalty with this add and take away approach. Someone dropping the ball at WN. Kinda embarrassing because it's not like they don't know what's going on. Keep the MAX out of the schedule until the FAA officially releases the aircraft back in service then and only then add reduced service back to the schedule.

Flyguy

I fully agree, plus I can't see how it's efficient. If they are just removing the Max8s from the schedule, then it limits their flexibility to trim the lowest yielding routes. Notice though that WN slipped in a couple of adds, which suggests that this is not just a removal of the Max8 from their scheduled flights.

WN MSP-OAK AUG 0.7>0.1[1.0]

Really related to MAX or is the route being cut?

Chuska wrote:

What's up with 4B (Boutique Air) doing ALS-CVN? Appears they need a link between their DEN and DFW hubs however ALS has been running with PC-12's and CVN with BE-350's. And the flights are all point to point, i.e. they are not thru flights DEN-CVN or ALS-DFW however the schedules are set up where one can connect at either ALS or CVN (same aircraft). Boutique first started with DEN-ALS-ABQ that connected with ABQ-CNM-DFW, all PC-12's, but dropped it last year. Seems like that should work much better than ALS-CVN. Who knows the big picture here?

Seems like 4B is now struggling with their route system given that Skywest and others have secured the EAS funding award in the last cycle for several of their prior routes. Like many things the business plan must adapt or their fate is sealed. They (Boutique) are going to do Cortez to Telluride (CO) too. Makes one wonder how all this will play out.

Frontier 14

AA at this point needs to work on preservation. They can't rebuild what they had 3 years ago without losing a lot of money. Money that AA simply hasn't shown the willingness to spend in NYC. You can't abandon JFK-SEA/SAN/LAS for the summer and expect to retain all your ff. All those ff that left in 2017/2018 aren't coming back anytime soon. AA cutting at JFK is a very short term gain. Long term, it's going to cost them in LGA and system wide.

As for AS at SAN, here are the transcon performances from Q4
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield
SANEWR 2425 AS 25425 243.09 241.96 314.21 98.43% 171.9 175 84.51% 204.47
SANBOS 2588 AS 25803 300.47 300.32 306.37 97.62% 175.5 176 83.53% 250.86
SANBWI 2295 AS 21041 223.32 222.48 283.96 98.64% 170 161 76.89% 171.06
SANMCO 2149 AS 20948 227.42 226.77 353.41 99.49% 175.6 140 85.23% 193.27

As you can see, BWI is far and away the weakest there. BOS seems to be profitable for them. EWR and MCO are probably losing money, but I don't see them cutting those 2.

SteveXC500 wrote:

WN MSP-OAK AUG 0.7>0.1[1.0]

Really related to MAX or is the route being cut?

I think it’s MAX. It fits with many of the other MAX cuts, virtually all of which are August-only and many of which are long, new-ish, low frequency California routes (IND-OAK, EWR-SAN, BNA-BUR/SJC).

enilria wrote:

*BWI-SAN OCT 1.0>0[1.0]

phxa340 wrote:

Wow - AS cutting BWI-SAN route, wonder if that is an omen of things to come for the AS SAN focus city. I know a lot of loyal AS fliers in SD rely on that flight for their DC work and personal needs. I know their EWR and BOS routes aren’t doing too great either according to fare data posted by other members on here.

It's lovely that AS wants to make SAN a real focus city, but when you're up against WN at BWI (who can offer substantial connecting feed) and B6 at BOS, you're going to have to nab some premium passengers to make this work. Sounds like they haven't been able to do this.

enilria wrote:

*DL DTW-HNL JAN 0.5>0.1[0] FEB 0.4>0.1[0] MAR 0.4>0[0]

Deja vu of 2010-11. It basically doesn't fly all winter past Christmas now. I doubt we'll see MSP-HNL increased to compensate.

MSPNWA wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL DTW-HNL JAN 0.5>0.1[0] FEB 0.4>0.1[0] MAR 0.4>0[0]

Deja vu of 2010-11. It basically doesn't fly all winter past Christmas now. I doubt we'll see MSP-HNL increased to compensate.

That didn’t last long. Is this a full cut or just seasonal?

With the way things are going right now, if your favorite airport doesn’t have many cuts (at least not Max related), no news is good news. At SJC, WN cut back BNA but that looks temporary. AS has been making other cuts but SJC has so far been consistently spared. Maybe AS is doing well enough there not to warrant any changes? In this environment, I’ll take it.

Nothing new from DL through next winter. Do they do any new routes or frequency changes after releasing the above changes? If not, then I wouldn’t expect much from DL until next summer.

Ishrion wrote:

That didn’t last long. Is this a full cut or just seasonal?

Don't know. It's already seasonal and runs for a couple months this summer, so we'll know soon if it's back for summer 2020. That will tell us.

AirFiero wrote:

With the way things are going right now, if your favorite airport doesn’t have many cuts (at least not Max related), no news is good news. At SJC, WN cut back BNA but that looks temporary. AS has been making other cuts but SJC has so far been consistently spared. Maybe AS is doing well enough there not to warrant any changes? In this environment, I’ll take it.

Nothing new from DL through next winter. Do they do any new routes or frequency changes after releasing the above changes? If not, then I wouldn’t expect much from DL until next summer.

I think JFK was a pretty big add for delta. Not sure what else they are thinking of. I could see Bos but thats not a daily route.

Frontier14 wrote:

Chuska wrote:

What's up with 4B (Boutique Air) doing ALS-CVN? Appears they need a link between their DEN and DFW hubs however ALS has been running with PC-12's and CVN with BE-350's. And the flights are all point to point, i.e. they are not thru flights DEN-CVN or ALS-DFW however the schedules are set up where one can connect at either ALS or CVN (same aircraft). Boutique first started with DEN-ALS-ABQ that connected with ABQ-CNM-DFW, all PC-12's, but dropped it last year. Seems like that should work much better than ALS-CVN. Who knows the big picture here?

Seems like 4B is now struggling with their route system given that Skywest and others have secured the EAS funding award in the last cycle for several of their prior routes. Like many things the business plan must adapt or their fate is sealed. They (Boutique) are going to do Cortez to Telluride (CO) too. Makes one wonder how all this will play out.

Frontier 14

I hope things work out for Boutique. I flew them DEN-VEL-SLC a few days before Skywest took over the EAS contract at VEL, and I enjoyed flying them. All of their employees were friendly, and my flights were almost on time. Also, I found the Beech King Air of Boutique Air far more comfortable than the Sky West CRJ-100s that replaced Boutique at VEL.

Boutique, and Air Choice One, seem to be far more interested in running a reliable airline than Great Lakes and SeaPort were.

MSPNWA wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL DTW-HNL JAN 0.5>0.1[0] FEB 0.4>0.1[0] MAR 0.4>0[0]

Deja vu of 2010-11. It basically doesn't fly all winter past Christmas now. I doubt we'll see MSP-HNL increased to compensate.

Winter is the peak time in Hawaii. If they’re trimming service at the peak season something’s not right.

LotsaRunway wrote:

N757ST wrote:

Only 3 flight a day between PHL and BDL? Wow, that’s such a change from past years. Are they eliminating some banks?

"Just a casual observation of AA's PHL operations. It seems as if AA is redirecting lower yielding connections through CLT and re-configuring it's PHL operations somewhat, especially during bad weather seasons. Recently, downgrades (to Piedmont E145s) out of PHL to nearby cities have been real. Maybe I'm wrong on this but I'm seeing a lot more Piedmont on runs to larger cities as the E190s and E175s are getting moved elsewhere. Meanwhile, CLT is on a nice expansion run and it doesn't face the congestion problems of PHL."

Does anyone know what the strategy of the PHL hub is? A seasonal hub? JFK too? Would be nice to see NK or F9 pick up the slack and add more service from PHL. It is no secret CLT and DFW are heavily subsidized airports with cheap operating costs, which is why we see more of a focus from AA at those two airplorts versus MIA, ORD and PHL. JFK, LAX and PHX are outliers IMO for one reason or another, and won't see any significant increases in service.

Thanks Enilria!

enilria wrote:

WN ATL-BOS AUG 1.0>0.2[3]

I know this is partly MAX-related, but still ... yikes. From 3x daily a year ago to 1x daily, and now barely weekly with the MAX woes.

lavalampluva wrote:

MSPNWA wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL DTW-HNL JAN 0.5>0.1[0] FEB 0.4>0.1[0] MAR 0.4>0[0]

Deja vu of 2010-11. It basically doesn't fly all winter past Christmas now. I doubt we'll see MSP-HNL increased to compensate.

Winter is the peak time in Hawaii. If they’re trimming service at the peak season something’s not right.

Is that true for pax originating east of the Mississippi? It’s such a haul to get to Hawaii that I know far more folks who go in the summer. Hawaii can’t really done as a long weekend from a place like Boston or Atlanta like it can be from Los Angeles or Seattle.

Winners:
ORD - Add on JFK to ORD on DL, NK seems to be doing well (multiple adds on LAS-ORD, some MCO-ORD). Plus UA hub SAT and PSP expansion.

Losers:
BDL - how does one lose half of their frequencies to PHL?
PHL - did the west coast suddenly disappear from the map or what? (2 of 3 to den gone, 2 of four to LAS gone all in exchange for a few useless flights to LGA) 2 of five daily flights to STL cut. One add to RSW
DFW - 4 daily flights cut.
LAX: Four MAX cuts from WN, cuts on LAX-SFO,

Most improved:
Richmond - just got additional frequencies to JFK, DTW. IAH cuts added back.

Philly65 wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

N757ST wrote:

Only 3 flight a day between PHL and BDL? Wow, that’s such a change from past years. Are they eliminating some banks?

"Just a casual observation of AA's PHL operations. It seems as if AA is redirecting lower yielding connections through CLT and re-configuring it's PHL operations somewhat, especially during bad weather seasons. Recently, downgrades (to Piedmont E145s) out of PHL to nearby cities have been real. Maybe I'm wrong on this but I'm seeing a lot more Piedmont on runs to larger cities as the E190s and E175s are getting moved elsewhere. Meanwhile, CLT is on a nice expansion run and it doesn't face the congestion problems of PHL."

Does anyone know what the strategy of the PHL hub is? A seasonal hub? JFK too? Would be nice to see NK or F9 pick up the slack and add more service from PHL. It is no secret CLT and DFW are heavily subsidized airports with cheap operating costs, which is why we see more of a focus from AA at those two airplorts versus MIA, ORD and PHL. JFK, LAX and PHX are outliers IMO for one reason or another, and won't see any significant increases in service.

PHL has been cut to the bone the past two winters by AA. It seems like AA basically cuts PHL down to an O&D station with minor connecting opportunities in the winter. It kind of makes sense - most of the transatlantic flights aren't running and they have CLT to run all the connections through (which are primarily heading south anyway). Why not just focus on PHL O&D which is large in its own right.

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:

enilria wrote:

*BWI-SAN OCT 1.0>0[1.0]

phxa340 wrote:

Wow - AS cutting BWI-SAN route, wonder if that is an omen of things to come for the AS SAN focus city. I know a lot of loyal AS fliers in SD rely on that flight for their DC work and personal needs. I know their EWR and BOS routes aren’t doing too great either according to fare data posted by other members on here.

It's lovely that AS wants to make SAN a real focus city, but when you're up against WN at BWI (who can offer substantial connecting feed) and B6 at BOS, you're going to have to nab some premium passengers to make this work. Sounds like they haven't been able to do this.

Unless cutting BWI only for a month was a mistake, keeping it shows committment to the SAN market. Time will tell how it works out, but per the above post, BOS appears to he doing well.

Frontier14 wrote:

Chuska wrote:

What's up with 4B (Boutique Air) doing ALS-CVN? Appears they need a link between their DEN and DFW hubs however ALS has been running with PC-12's and CVN with BE-350's. And the flights are all point to point, i.e. they are not thru flights DEN-CVN or ALS-DFW however the schedules are set up where one can connect at either ALS or CVN (same aircraft). Boutique first started with DEN-ALS-ABQ that connected with ABQ-CNM-DFW, all PC-12's, but dropped it last year. Seems like that should work much better than ALS-CVN. Who knows the big picture here?

Seems like 4B is now struggling with their route system given that Skywest and others have secured the EAS funding award in the last cycle for several of their prior routes. Like many things the business plan must adapt or their fate is sealed. They (Boutique) are going to do Cortez to Telluride (CO) too. Makes one wonder how all this will play out.

Frontier 14

The DEN-ALS 4B flights picked up a UA codeshare a year ago. Maybe the ALS-CVN flight will too? Just speculating.

Thinking longer-term: as you said, Skywest has picked-up a number of EAS markets of late (from Boutique and Others). Flying 50-seaters (United Express-branded) into Denver. Liberal (KS), Scottsbluff, North Platte & Kearney (NE), Pierre & Watertown (SD). (among others, I may be missing a few)

ALS seems like a market where the same thing could happen. The Sand Dunes are becoming more popular and Taos is just as close to ALS as SAF is (ALS is actually closer to the ski area, north of town). Even though the San Luis Valley is economically depressed, there may be enough there for 1-2 Skywest DEN-ALS 50-seaters a day, especially if it tags on a second city (like CVN).

tphuang wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

With the way things are going right now, if your favorite airport doesn’t have many cuts (at least not Max related), no news is good news. At SJC, WN cut back BNA but that looks temporary. AS has been making other cuts but SJC has so far been consistently spared. Maybe AS is doing well enough there not to warrant any changes? In this environment, I’ll take it.

Nothing new from DL through next winter. Do they do any new routes or frequency changes after releasing the above changes? If not, then I wouldn’t expect much from DL until next summer.

I think JFK was a pretty big add for delta. Not sure what else they are thinking of. I could see Bos but thats not a daily route.

I agree, JFK was a big surprise. But I don’t think that was included in their plans going forward. They have 30 flights (or 31), and they’re talking about 24% growth which is about 8 more flights. My bet is a flight or two to the other focus cities and beefing up with more flights to the hubs like ATL.

AirFiero wrote:

tphuang wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

With the way things are going right now, if your favorite airport doesn’t have many cuts (at least not Max related), no news is good news. At SJC, WN cut back BNA but that looks temporary. AS has been making other cuts but SJC has so far been consistently spared. Maybe AS is doing well enough there not to warrant any changes? In this environment, I’ll take it.

Nothing new from DL through next winter. Do they do any new routes or frequency changes after releasing the above changes? If not, then I wouldn’t expect much from DL until next summer.

I think JFK was a pretty big add for delta. Not sure what else they are thinking of. I could see Bos but thats not a daily route.

I agree, JFK was a big surprise. But I don’t think that was included in their plans going forward. They have 30 flights (or 31), and they’re talking about 24% growth which is about 8 more flights. My bet is a flight or two to the other focus cities and beefing up with more flights to the hubs like ATL.

If they are upgauging sea to a220 and same with SLC, that's already a boost in capacity from rj. I don't know if they will necessarily add more flights in short term.

ericm2031 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria

Is aa actively trying to kill lax sfo? 7x daily has to be the lowest they have had on that route ever.

They've been converting it from entirely hourly regional shuttle to almost all mainline, but every 2-3 hours. Extremely competitive route and probably need those E175s elsewhere

CRJ don't cut it on this (competition is running better planes) route along with the pain of having to go to the eagles nest. Mainline if a better answer if there not running E175's I use to fly DL over AA when If and when they used the CRJ on the route.

tphuang wrote:

ericm2031 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria

Is aa actively trying to kill lax sfo? 7x daily has to be the lowest they have had on that route ever.

They've been converting it from entirely hourly regional shuttle to almost all mainline, but every 2-3 hours. Extremely competitive route and probably need those E175s elsewhere

I thought they used to be mainline with good frequency and then downgauged to all regionals. And now back to mainline with much lower frequency. I could be entirely wrong on that.

Not sure how this is not going to hurt them

That's how I remember it and I agree with you