CHOWahoo
Posts: 29
Joined: Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:16 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:13 pm

8x daily on RIC-JFK between DL and AA! This will be a bloodbath. Dummy booking for January has DL at $157/rt.
That's in addition to 9x daily between the two of them to LGA and UA's EWR flights.
 
AirFiero
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Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:34 pm

tphuang wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think JFK was a pretty big add for delta. Not sure what else they are thinking of. I could see Bos but thats not a daily route.


I agree, JFK was a big surprise. But I don’t think that was included in their plans going forward. They have 30 flights (or 31), and they’re talking about 24% growth which is about 8 more flights. My bet is a flight or two to the other focus cities and beefing up with more flights to the hubs like ATL.

If they are upgauging sea to a220 and same with SLC, that's already a boost in capacity from rj. I don't know if they will necessarily add more flights in short term.


They weren’t very specific, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. I doubt we will see anything big, as has been speculated here.
 
klkla
Posts: 801
Joined: Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:51 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:16 am

enilria wrote:
AA LAX-SFO SEP 8>7[12]


Even though the frequencies are less they have changed most of the flights from regional jets to A321. They were not competitive with the regional jets because of the Eagle's Nest.

5 A321 and 2 E75 in Sept.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 526
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:19 am

wnflyguy wrote:
With This on going MAX grounding I don't Even know why WN didn't just publish a flight schedule until January it could operate Without the MAX. It's losing a lot of customers and their loyalty with this add and take away approach. Someone dropping the ball at WN. Kinda embarrassing because it's not like they don't know what's going on. Keep the MAX out of the schedule until the FAA officially releases the aircraft back in service then and only then add reduced service back to the schedule.

Flyguy



All the airlines are doing it thus way. If not and they just waited you would have months of aircraft without crews, planes and most importantly customers.

They have to be in the system to be able to fly later.
 
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SumChristianus
Posts: 585
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:00 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:24 am

enilria wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Only 3 flight a day between PHL and BDL? Wow, that’s such a change from past years. Are they eliminating some banks?

I assume it's now mainline if it wasn't before, but that is a shocker. Sure it's not bank driven. I guess it wasn't profitable enough?
nkops wrote:
As always, thanks for my favorite Sunday morning read..

I think VC is done.. haven't seen their a/c move from the SFB hangar in a long time.. according to flightaware, it has been over 2 weeks since anything has been airborne for them

Agreed


I think its way to preliminary as AA has some crazy 15%+ growth currently scheduled for PHL in January.
When they have a YOY increase on PHL-SEA from 4x a week to 4x a day there has to be something that's not right in their schedule.

I agree though on what's being done overall with PHL about reducing it a lot (in real schedules) in the winter - seems there's quite a gap for ULCCs on routes like PHL-LAS then with the declines they've been posting.
UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-ATL-DEN: WN 73G/738
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
global2
Posts: 499
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:50 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:28 am

jfklganyc wrote:
AA LGA PHL

Four flights isn’t that much... we will watch the trendline and see if it moves into a full slot squatting mode

The problem with dehubbing NYC for PHL is there is broad acknowledgement that there is next to zero demand for air travel between NYC and PHL and very few flights.

As they cut NYC for PHL, the reality must be settling in at HQ that they just lose the NYC customer altogether. That is a big problem.

They have put themselves between a rock and a hard place.

From NYC

They are no longer relevant on transcons outside of LA

They are no longer relevant to Europe

They are no longer relevant to the Islands

LGA has also started to see cuts to the all important Shuttle

Few flights and few pax to their PHL hub down the road

They can add back and lose more money

They can stay put and lose money

They can cut further and lose NYC to anything outside their hubs

What to do?


As a NY'er and a Million Miler with AAdvantage, this makes me very sad. Why are they so unable to compete and let DL take everything?
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1085
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:36 am

grbauc wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Thanks again enilria

Is aa actively trying to kill lax sfo? 7x daily has to be the lowest they have had on that route ever.


They've been converting it from entirely hourly regional shuttle to almost all mainline, but every 2-3 hours. Extremely competitive route and probably need those E175s elsewhere



CRJ don't cut it on this (competition is running better planes) route along with the pain of having to go to the eagles nest. Mainline if a better answer if there not running E175's I use to fly DL over AA when If and when they used the CRJ on the route.


AA isn’t and hasn’t been running CRJs on the route so I’m not sure what you’re trying to say.
 
grbauc
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:41 am

ericm2031 wrote:
grbauc wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:

They've been converting it from entirely hourly regional shuttle to almost all mainline, but every 2-3 hours. Extremely competitive route and probably need those E175s elsewhere



CRJ don't cut it on this (competition is running better planes) route along with the pain of having to go to the eagles nest. Mainline if a better answer if there not running E175's I use to fly DL over AA when If and when they used the CRJ on the route.


AA isn’t and hasn’t been running CRJs on the route so I’m not sure what you’re trying to say.


They use to its been a few years...
 
WA707atMSP
Posts: 1778
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:16 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:33 am

keithvh2001 wrote:
Frontier14 wrote:
Chuska wrote:
What's up with 4B (Boutique Air) doing ALS-CVN? Appears they need a link between their DEN and DFW hubs however ALS has been running with PC-12's and CVN with BE-350's. And the flights are all point to point, i.e. they are not thru flights DEN-CVN or ALS-DFW however the schedules are set up where one can connect at either ALS or CVN (same aircraft). Boutique first started with DEN-ALS-ABQ that connected with ABQ-CNM-DFW, all PC-12's, but dropped it last year. Seems like that should work much better than ALS-CVN. Who knows the big picture here?


Seems like 4B is now struggling with their route system given that Skywest and others have secured the EAS funding award in the last cycle for several of their prior routes. Like many things the business plan must adapt or their fate is sealed. They (Boutique) are going to do Cortez to Telluride (CO) too. Makes one wonder how all this will play out.

Frontier 14


The DEN-ALS 4B flights picked up a UA codeshare a year ago. Maybe the ALS-CVN flight will too? Just speculating.

Thinking longer-term: as you said, Skywest has picked-up a number of EAS markets of late (from Boutique and Others). Flying 50-seaters (United Express-branded) into Denver. Liberal (KS), Scottsbluff, North Platte & Kearney (NE), Pierre & Watertown (SD). (among others, I may be missing a few)

ALS seems like a market where the same thing could happen. The Sand Dunes are becoming more popular and Taos is just as close to ALS as SAF is (ALS is actually closer to the ski area, north of town). Even though the San Luis Valley is economically depressed, there may be enough there for 1-2 Skywest DEN-ALS 50-seaters a day, especially if it tags on a second city (like CVN).


ALS seems like a natural city for Sky West to add from DEN. I'd be surprised if they don't put in a bid the next time Alamosa's essential air service contract is up for review.

I think Clovis might be more likely to be taken over by American Eagle from DFW. Clovis' current EAS route is to DFW, not DEN, and AA has focused their EAS bids on cities with military bases. Cannon Air Force base is on the other side of downtown Clovis from the city's municipal airport. Were AA to add Clovis, they might continue on to Roswell, which they already serve.
 
usairways85
Posts: 4031
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:02 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
enilria wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Only 3 flight a day between PHL and BDL? Wow, that’s such a change from past years. Are they eliminating some banks?

I assume it's now mainline if it wasn't before, but that is a shocker. Sure it's not bank driven. I guess it wasn't profitable enough?
nkops wrote:
As always, thanks for my favorite Sunday morning read..

I think VC is done.. haven't seen their a/c move from the SFB hangar in a long time.. according to flightaware, it has been over 2 weeks since anything has been airborne for them

Agreed


I think its way to preliminary as AA has some crazy 15%+ growth currently scheduled for PHL in January.
When they have a YOY increase on PHL-SEA from 4x a week to 4x a day there has to be something that's not right in their schedule.

I agree though on what's being done overall with PHL about reducing it a lot (in real schedules) in the winter - seems there's quite a gap for ULCCs on routes like PHL-LAS then with the declines they've been posting.

The PHL-LAS, DEN, SEA markets have a decent PDEW in the winter (Q1) despite the seasonal drop. I understand the BDL cut after looking at the numbers. It only averages 40-55 PDEW, but with an avg fare between $280-312, the 312 coming in Q1 2018..showing AA's drive to push up airfares.

PDEW
PHL-DEN (AA, UA, WN, F9* - varies)
Q1 2016 - 779 (avg fare: 217)
Q1 2017 - 624 (avg fare: 188) - WN is the largest carrier
Q1 2018 - 643 (avg fare: 207) - WN is the largest carrier

PHL-LAS (AA, NK, now F9)
Q1 2016 - 686 (avg fare: 217)
Q1 2017 - 694 (avg fare: 222)
Q1 2018 - 602 (avg fare: 239)

PHL-SEA (AA, AS)
Q1 2016 - 205 (avg fare 279) - AS is the largest carrier
Q1 2017 - 217 (avg fare 283) - AS is the largest carrier
Q1 2018 - 211 (avg fare 282) - AA is the largest carrier
 
uconn99
Posts: 371
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:34 pm

BDL-PHL will have the same frequency as HVN-PHL this winter, something has got to be off. I would think if AA goes down to 3x daily BDL-PHL all flights would be mainline, AA has been putting more mainline on this route for the past couple of years.
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5110
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/16/2019:AI Extends JFK Suspension;MF Suspends SEA-SZX;NK Extension;WN AUG MAX Cuts

Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:47 am

phxa340 wrote:
Wow - AS cutting BWI-SAN route, wonder if that is an omen of things to come for the AS SAN focus city. I know a lot of loyal AS fliers in SD rely on that flight for their DC work and personal needs. I know their EWR and BOS routes aren’t doing too great either according to fare data posted by other members on here.

A couple of points on the SAN-BWI cut. (Regarding the above-quoted post and others from this thread.)

First, we have no idea if the cut is for only 1 month or not. The Nov 5 schedules for AS are barely starting to be worked on; what we see for Nov 5 right now is old stuff -- place holders. I'd say there is a 50--50 chance that SAN-BWI will appear in the Nov-Dec skeds when they are finally updated.

The second point is that the SAN-BWI schedule is a red-eye (departing CA at 10:50pm) with the return early morning, departing Baltimore at 6:15am! These are not times that business travelers want and I really wouldn't be at all surprised if AS suspends the route until they can re-work the SAN skeds to allow a morning departure to BWI with an evening return. (They have had the flight re-timed at least once on preliminary schedules but the changes were pulled prior to schedule-finalization.)

NK has already left the market and WN has cut their service's frequencies (form 3 to 2 daily flights) for this summer. So I can't seriously believe AS would permanently turn SAN-BWI over to WN and I think they will find a way -- whether thru aircraft tweaking or gate changes in either SAN or at BWI -- to reinstate service for AS between SAN and the D.C. area as soon as possible.

bb

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