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Zoedyn
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Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:21 am

US DOT released the traffic data for the whole year of 2018 just days ago (See: https://www.bts.gov/topics/airlines-and ... n-download), which provides us some crucial info on how the various aviation markets were doing, hence the charts we are seeing here involving China-US aviation (Credit to 中国商飞C919 @feeyo.com who dived deep into the DOT data and took the trouble to compile all the following charts)

Pax traffic and pax load factor for 53 Sino-US routes in 2018
Image
Column headers explained:
Left Half: Dec 2018. Right Half: 2018
Within each half, left to right:
China to US/YoY change/Load Factor/US to China/YoY Change/Load Factor/Combined both ways/YoY Change/Load Factor

Pax traffic and PLF for CN4 on Sino-US market in 2018
Image

Pax traffic and PLF for US3 on Sino-US market in 2018
Image

Perhaps not quite incidentally, both DL and UA have expressed optimism about China growth despite grim trade/political uncertainty hanging over China-US relations per the reports below:

Delta Air Lines CEO Says China Revenues Are Up Despite Trade Rhetoric
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/delta-ai ... 20690.html

United Airlines Expects Strong China Growth This Summer Despite Market Uncertainty
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... a4d63a18e6

That keeps you wondering: What about AA?
 
Ishrion
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Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:26 am

For AA, last I heard was their Asia revenue overall went up. I believe they had something in their Q1 Earnings.

Honestly, it's probably because they reduced capacity with cutting ORD-PEK/PVG.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:30 pm

SEA-SZX LF = 70.4%...that explain why MF is canning that route. TAO-LAX isn't all that great either (72.1%), and it wouldn't surprise me that the route will be canned once subsidies run out.

Secondary China remain awful in terms of Load Factor for the most part. Out of LAX, only XMN-LAX has a good load factor (79.2%), with all the other route having LF closer to 65-70% (I exclude SHE-LAX as that route is too new). The other good performers are WUH-SFO (Doing even better than UA's CTU-SFO) and of course, FOC-JFK thanks to all those people from Fuzhou in NYC.

PVG-ATL starts out with VERY nice load factor (close to 90%), we'll see if DL can keep that up.

Otherwise, leisure routes (PEK-HNL, PVG-HNL, PEK-LAS) are still awful in load factors. I don't see those improving, either, as the number of Mainland Chinese tourists going to US dropped last year thanks to the trade tension.
 
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Zoedyn
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Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:57 am

So one more Chinese carrier is poised to join competition on Sino-US aviation market, as the Hangzhou-based Loong Air is applying to CAAC for approval of 7x weekly HGH-SPN planned for launch this September.

CAAC Route Applications June 20

Image
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:22 am

If I’m reading this correctly, SJC- PEK has a higher load factor than SFO-PEK and other gateways like IAD and BOS.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:42 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
If I’m reading this correctly, SJC- PEK has a higher load factor than SFO-PEK and other gateways like IAD and BOS.


The column all the way to the right is the one you want to read for yearly number. Thus SFO-PEK is still higher.

IAD had long been one of the route out of PEK that has somewhat meh load factor. BOS and SJC are almost identical in LF, except BOS-PEK is daily while SJC-PEK is 5/wk.
 
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Zoedyn
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Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:53 am

It seems that China-US Zone 1 and Zone 2 will respectively see 7 and 2 frequencies vacated from CA's PEK-JFK and 3U's HGH/TNA-LAX thanks to the action being taken by CAAC to regulate the use of international traffic rights.

As per a newly-introduced regulation CAAC Issues the Measures for the Monitoring and Management of International Air Traffic Rights, CAAC is trying to review and revoke quite a number of international route authorities that have been previously granted but apparently not used or underused by various Chinese carriers.

CAAC route authority revocation

Image

Interesting to see which carriers are going to get the vacated route authorities if they are available for re-allocation again.
 
x1234
Posts: 491
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:33 pm

Zoedyn, what's the point of the SPN (Saipan) routes!? I don't understand why Chinese carriers fly there.
 
x1234
Posts: 491
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:36 pm

Also Zoedyn, do you have Hong Kong (HKG) data!? I know HKG is the premier gateway for Americans looking to visit SE Asia as the tickets are cheaper than transiting via Japan/South Korea/Taiwan.
 
Ishrion
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Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:36 pm

x1234 wrote:
Zoedyn, what's the point of the SPN (Saipan) routes!? I don't understand why Chinese carriers fly there.


They fly to Saipan because people want to go there and enjoy the beach?
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2681
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Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:56 pm

x1234 wrote:
Zoedyn, what's the point of the SPN (Saipan) routes!? I don't understand why Chinese carriers fly there.


Leisure traffic. Saipan (Actually NMI as a whole) is visa-free for Mainland Chinese citizens (Guam is not, though).

If you look at Saipan recently, there are tons of Chinese resort investments there, including Casinos. Some of the development, of course, involve backdoor deals with corrupt NMI officials (Cough...Imperial Palace...cough).
Last edited by zakuivcustom on Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Zoedyn
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Re: Sino-US pax traffic/PLF for 53 routes/CN4/US3 in 2018 revealed. UA/DL upbeat about China growth despite trade tensio

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:57 pm

Ishrion wrote:
x1234 wrote:
Zoedyn, what's the point of the SPN (Saipan) routes!? I don't understand why Chinese carriers fly there.


They fly to Saipan because people want to go there and enjoy the beach?


Yes, Saipan has long been a rather popular overseas destination for the Chinese mainly due to geographical proximity and relaxed visa regime as compared with travel to mainland US. The load factors on the routes in the opening post give a clue :D

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