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enilria
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The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:48 pm

They pretty much guarantee the Captain did it. Not sure if any of it is new, but compiled like this it points one way. They basically said that the Malaysian military lied about the flight path to cover up that they shut off the air defense radar for the night and are basically not really protecting the country, which if known would be a national security risk.

Of all the profiles extracted from the simulator, the one that matched MH370’s path was the only one that Zaharie did not run as a continuous flight—in other words, taking off on the simulator and letting the flight play out, hour after hour, until it reached the destination airport. Instead he advanced the flight manually in multiple stages, repeatedly jumping the flight forward and subtracting the fuel as necessary until it was gone.

In Kuala Lumpur, I met with one of Zaharie’s lifelong friends, a fellow 777 captain whose name I have omitted because of possible repercussions for him. He too believed that Zaharie was guilty, a conclusion he had come to reluctantly.
I should have been a pilot apparently. ;)
He said, “Zaharie’s marriage was bad. In the past he slept with some of the flight attendants. And so what? We all do. You’re flying all over the world with these beautiful girls in the back. But his wife knew.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... es/590653/
 
dmstorm22
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:57 pm

As someone for whom MH370 dropped off my radar a bit, this was a great refresher. As you said, not sure if any of it is new, but the article did a good job explaining the various tracking and satellite systems.

The only part that seemed weird was the focus on Mr. Gibson as a globe-trotting scrap & rubble hunter, but I guess that added some lightness to the piece.

The Zaharie stuff at the end about the separation, his 'clinical depression' (though a very second-hand diagnosis) was something I hadn't seen spilled out so cleanly before, but I may have missed it. And admittedly a lot of it was personal opinion.
 
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enilria
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:54 pm

dmstorm22 wrote:
The only part that seemed weird was the focus on Mr. Gibson as a globe-trotting scrap & rubble hunter, but I guess that added some lightness to the piece.

He apparently was basing the search on countries he hadn't visited and beaches to visit the article said. LOL. That was also odd. Journalism is so terrible now.
 
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TedToToe
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:31 pm

Assuming it is just the captain’s body in the cockpit, is there anything still to be learned if and when the aircraft is finally found?
 
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enilria
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:41 pm

TedToToe wrote:
Assuming it is just the captain’s body in the cockpit, is there anything still to be learned if and when the aircraft is finally found?

That’s the last paragraph. I think the black box would verify that somebody in the cockpit turned off all these systems. While they article treats that as fact, we don’t really know that. I agree it’s the Occam’s razor solution.
 
h1fl1er
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:45 pm

detailed article and a peek into parts of the world where things run differently
 
BA777FO
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:33 pm

I've heard a fairly convincing story that the real culprit of this was not the Captain but the crew oxygen cylinder exploding. Apparently it was serviced prior to departure, perhaps overfilled or not tightened properly. An explosion of the crew oxygen cylinder would knock out various electrical buses, hence it disappearing off the radar. Otherwise, some of thise CBs would need popping down in the E&E bay. When the decompression occured due to the explosion and the crew donned their masks, low and behold, there was no oxygen as the cylinder had exploded. They then possibly entered unconciousness after commencing the initial actions of the Cabin Altitude checklist and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel.

I'm not saying that with 100% certainty but it's a compelling theory. The jump to accuse the Captain with at best circumstantial evidence is a shame in a safety critical industry that will only improve with a just safety culture.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:48 pm

BA777FO wrote:
I've heard a fairly convincing story that the real culprit of this was not the Captain but the crew oxygen cylinder exploding. Apparently it was serviced prior to departure, perhaps overfilled or not tightened properly. An explosion of the crew oxygen cylinder would knock out various electrical buses, hence it disappearing off the radar. Otherwise, some of thise CBs would need popping down in the E&E bay. When the decompression occured due to the explosion and the crew donned their masks, low and behold, there was no oxygen as the cylinder had exploded. They then possibly entered unconciousness after commencing the initial actions of the Cabin Altitude checklist and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel.

I'm not saying that with 100% certainty but it's a compelling theory. The jump to accuse the Captain with at best circumstantial evidence is a shame in a safety critical industry that will only improve with a just safety culture.

Unless grossly overfilled, an O2 cylinder will not explode "just like that" due to overfilling; from memory, they are tested at least at 150% of the normal operating pressure, so it'd take a lot to make it explode.
And even then, there is an overpressure disk that will rupture and release the pressure.

Lastly, what do you mean by "not tightened properly"? What would need tightening after O2 refill?
 
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OA940
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:35 pm

I'm gonna take away the ''we all sleep with our flight attendants'' bit. Let's hope that other pilot's wife doesn't know he gave that interview
A350/CSeries = bae
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:40 pm

Pretty much a “must read” article.

It is a little telling of how aviation and airline safety investigations may be compromised by national self interests.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
h1fl1er
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:57 pm

BA777FO wrote:
I've heard a fairly convincing story that the real culprit of this was not the Captain but the crew oxygen cylinder exploding. Apparently it was serviced prior to departure, perhaps overfilled or not tightened properly. An explosion of the crew oxygen cylinder would knock out various electrical buses, hence it disappearing off the radar. Otherwise, some of thise CBs would need popping down in the E&E bay. When the decompression occured due to the explosion and the crew donned their masks, low and behold, there was no oxygen as the cylinder had exploded. They then possibly entered unconciousness after commencing the initial actions of the Cabin Altitude checklist and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel.

I'm not saying that with 100% certainty but it's a compelling theory. The jump to accuse the Captain with at best circumstantial evidence is a shame in a safety critical industry that will only improve with a just safety culture.


how did the plane make all those maneuvers then?

it was pinging the satellite with telemetry all the way into the southern ocean
 
747megatop
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:12 pm

enilria wrote:
TedToToe wrote:
Assuming it is just the captain’s body in the cockpit, is there anything still to be learned if and when the aircraft is finally found?

That’s the last paragraph. I think the black box would verify that somebody in the cockpit turned off all these systems. While they article treats that as fact, we don’t really know that. I agree it’s the Occam’s razor solution.

That's assuming -
1) that the black boxes were recording. Remember Silk Air 185?

and/or

2) that black box didn't record over the crucial data (i forget what the window is before which it records over the previous recordings, i know that the FDR has a longer window); so, since the systems were turned off during the inital phase of the disappearance this is a very big possibility (at least the CVR...would most likely just have silence if it was indeed recording).

For certain, MH 370 has changed modern aviation in a big way in terms of how aircraft are tracked in realtime and how black box data is stored, processed and retrieved!!
 
747megatop
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:17 pm

BA777FO wrote:
I've heard a fairly convincing story that the real culprit of this was not the Captain but the crew oxygen cylinder exploding. Apparently it was serviced prior to departure, perhaps overfilled or not tightened properly. An explosion of the crew oxygen cylinder would knock out various electrical buses, hence it disappearing off the radar. Otherwise, some of thise CBs would need popping down in the E&E bay. When the decompression occured due to the explosion and the crew donned their masks, low and behold, there was no oxygen as the cylinder had exploded. They then possibly entered unconciousness after commencing the initial actions of the Cabin Altitude checklist and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel.

I'm not saying that with 100% certainty but it's a compelling theory. The jump to accuse the Captain with at best circumstantial evidence is a shame in a safety critical industry that will only improve with a just safety culture.

How about explaining all the deliberate and evasive maneuvering after the last contact with ATC? Then this theory can be even remotely entertained and picked up for further debate/discussion.
 
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:41 pm

enilria wrote:
They basically said that the Malaysian military lied about the flight path to cover up that they shut off the air defense radar for the night and are basically not really protecting the country...


But it was the Indonesian military that had turned off the radar, according to the article. The Malaysian radar tracked the plane well into Indonesian air space (west of Penang). The article claims Malaysia was afraid of something coming out during the investigation that might embarrass the country:

A close observer of the MH370 process said, “It became clear that the primary objective of the Malaysians was to make the subject just go away. From the start there was this instinctive bias against being open and transparent, not because they were hiding some deep, dark secret, but because they did not know where the truth really lay, and they were afraid that something might come out that would be embarrassing. Were they covering up? Yes. They were covering up for the unknown.”
 
dmstorm22
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:06 pm

OA940 wrote:
I'm gonna take away the ''we all sleep with our flight attendants'' bit. Let's hope that other pilot's wife doesn't know he gave that interview


Yeah, that was one of my favorite lines.
 
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:10 am

enilria wrote:
They pretty much guarantee the Captain did it. Not sure if any of it is new, but compiled like this it points one way. They basically said that the Malaysian military lied about the flight path to cover up that they shut off the air defense radar for the night and are basically not really protecting the country, which if known would be a national security risk.


Malaysia has a new government who aren't averse to call out the previous administration's failures & perceived incompetence if they can score brownie points. If it's true that the previous government covered things up, the new government would have exposed it already. You'd think this would have kiboshed the notion that there's an inherent coverup.

More likely scenario is that the then government, never having to deal with such a huge crisis on a global scale before, froze up in the face of pressure.
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:33 am

The oxygen cylinder theory isn’t totally crazy to me; certainly more believable than the “captain amok” theory. The sudden overpressure from a ruptured COPV could cause an upward failure of the cockpit floor, damaging or severing the wire harnesses that travel under the floor from the avionics bay to the cockpit pedestal. The fuselage itself would easily retain its integrity, but the floor structure is not designed even for a small (few psi) differential pressure load.

Would be interesting to try this on a similarly configured 777 headed for scrap, just to see the resulting damage to avionics...
 
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:58 am

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Pretty much a “must read” article.

It is a little telling of how aviation and airline safety investigations may be compromised by national self interests.


Those national interests you describe are only limited to certain (not all) 3rd world countries with poor public accountability.

We all remember Egypt Air 990 and it’s relief pilot causing mass murder suicide. And we also remember the Egyptian government shamefully denying it and blaming Boeing.

This Malaysian 370 flight is similar in that the Malay government is doing a long term coverup and denying that the Captain was another mass murderer.

Could you imagine a western airline or Asian airline like JAL or SQ doing this?? Of course not.

The Germanwings disaster was acknowledged by the Lufthansa group and Chairman Spohr immediately and nothing was hidden.

The Egyptair and MH and their ilk need to stop being so defensive and ridiculous and take responsibility like an adult.
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:35 am

747megatop wrote:
For certain, MH 370 has changed modern aviation in a big way in terms of how aircraft are tracked in realtime and how black box data is stored, processed and retrieved!!


That's interesting. What exactly has changed?
 
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:58 am

Nothing really new here other than the most probable cause by far being explained by a different source.

So Qi Min Lan is Zaharie's type... She is kind of hot...

TedToToe wrote:
Assuming it is just the captain’s body in the cockpit, is there anything still to be learned if and when the aircraft is finally found?


If Z planned this as well as some believe whose body is in the cockpit won't mean anything as after a successful ditching he could have replaced the FO's body back in the cockpit before going into the cabin to drown making it look like Fariq.
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:54 am

WayexTDI wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
I've heard a fairly convincing story that the real culprit of this was not the Captain but the crew oxygen cylinder exploding. Apparently it was serviced prior to departure, perhaps overfilled or not tightened properly. An explosion of the crew oxygen cylinder would knock out various electrical buses, hence it disappearing off the radar. Otherwise, some of thise CBs would need popping down in the E&E bay. When the decompression occured due to the explosion and the crew donned their masks, low and behold, there was no oxygen as the cylinder had exploded. They then possibly entered unconciousness after commencing the initial actions of the Cabin Altitude checklist and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel.

I'm not saying that with 100% certainty but it's a compelling theory. The jump to accuse the Captain with at best circumstantial evidence is a shame in a safety critical industry that will only improve with a just safety culture.

Unless grossly overfilled, an O2 cylinder will not explode "just like that" due to overfilling; from memory, they are tested at least at 150% of the normal operating pressure, so it'd take a lot to make it explode.
And even then, there is an overpressure disk that will rupture and release the pressure.

Lastly, what do you mean by "not tightened properly"? What would need tightening after O2 refill?


Apollo 13 suffered an oxygen tank rupture. It's not impossible and has happened before. Compressed gases have the potential to explode under the right circumstances. It was perhaps something to do with a mistake in servicing the tank, perhaps there was a faulty valve, who knows, but it's certainly possible.
 
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:58 am

WingedMigrator wrote:
The oxygen cylinder theory isn’t totally crazy to me; certainly more believable than the “captain amok” theory. The sudden overpressure from a ruptured COPV could cause an upward failure of the cockpit floor, damaging or severing the wire harnesses that travel under the floor from the avionics bay to the cockpit pedestal. The fuselage itself would easily retain its integrity, but the floor structure is not designed even for a small (few psi) differential pressure load.

Would be interesting to try this on a similarly configured 777 headed for scrap, just to see the resulting damage to avionics...


And this led to them flying extremely perfect maneuvers straddling multiple countries airspace? Way too much coincidence.

Nothing, other than deliberate human input can explain the flight path.
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:02 am

747megatop wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
I've heard a fairly convincing story that the real culprit of this was not the Captain but the crew oxygen cylinder exploding. Apparently it was serviced prior to departure, perhaps overfilled or not tightened properly. An explosion of the crew oxygen cylinder would knock out various electrical buses, hence it disappearing off the radar. Otherwise, some of thise CBs would need popping down in the E&E bay. When the decompression occured due to the explosion and the crew donned their masks, low and behold, there was no oxygen as the cylinder had exploded. They then possibly entered unconciousness after commencing the initial actions of the Cabin Altitude checklist and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel.

I'm not saying that with 100% certainty but it's a compelling theory. The jump to accuse the Captain with at best circumstantial evidence is a shame in a safety critical industry that will only improve with a just safety culture.

How about explaining all the deliberate and evasive maneuvering after the last contact with ATC? Then this theory can be even remotely entertained and picked up for further debate/discussion.


The memory items of the Cabin Altitude checklist - except by donning oxygen masks they were never getting any oxygen. If you suffer a decompression you don't just sit there at cruise altitude with your oxygen mask on.

If the aircraft was put into HDG SEL and flown off the airway prior to or just after the descent commenced, confusion brought about by hypoxia could have resulted in more erratic inputs to the AFDS.
 
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:03 am

Antarius wrote:
WingedMigrator wrote:
The oxygen cylinder theory isn’t totally crazy to me; certainly more believable than the “captain amok” theory. The sudden overpressure from a ruptured COPV could cause an upward failure of the cockpit floor, damaging or severing the wire harnesses that travel under the floor from the avionics bay to the cockpit pedestal. The fuselage itself would easily retain its integrity, but the floor structure is not designed even for a small (few psi) differential pressure load.

Would be interesting to try this on a similarly configured 777 headed for scrap, just to see the resulting damage to avionics...


And this led to them flying extremely perfect maneuvers straddling multiple countries airspace? Way too much coincidence.

Nothing, other than deliberate human input can explain the flight path.


It looks like it only made a couple of turns. Mis-activation of RTE2? Or an erroneous waypoint entry after the decompression? It's definitely difficult to explain from any angle.
 
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:08 am

I remember one PC where the Air Force chief said that MH370 was tracked by military radar crossing the northern border with Thailand. When asked by a report whether it was in "real time" he replied "no, on playback". So the radars were on
 
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:13 am

One thing I keep noticing about myself reading this, is how my first instinct is to side with the pilots and assume something just went terribly wrong (midair collision with a Malay military jet tearing open the cockpit window, fire on board, etc etc), but the home simulator has always perplexed me. I've only ever heard how it was plotted along the same route and how it was practiced, but if it's such a damning piece of evidence why haven't we seen the data yet? The fact they make it sound like the proof to close the case, yet seem so reluctant to show it, makes me feel like something's not entirely right here.
 
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:55 am

WayexTDI wrote:
Unless grossly overfilled, an O2 cylinder will not explode "just like that" due to overfilling; from memory, they are tested at least at 150% of the normal operating pressure, so it'd take a lot to make it explode.
And even then, there is an overpressure disk that will rupture and release the pressure.

Lastly, what do you mean by "not tightened properly"? What would need tightening after O2 refill?


Maybe they are thinking about QF30, oxygen bottle there caused significant damage externally and in the cabin. https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/in ... 8-053.aspx

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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:06 am

BA777FO wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
I've heard a fairly convincing story that the real culprit of this was not the Captain but the crew oxygen cylinder exploding. Apparently it was serviced prior to departure, perhaps overfilled or not tightened properly. An explosion of the crew oxygen cylinder would knock out various electrical buses, hence it disappearing off the radar. Otherwise, some of thise CBs would need popping down in the E&E bay. When the decompression occured due to the explosion and the crew donned their masks, low and behold, there was no oxygen as the cylinder had exploded. They then possibly entered unconciousness after commencing the initial actions of the Cabin Altitude checklist and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel.
I'm not saying that with 100% certainty but it's a compelling theory. The jump to accuse the Captain with at best circumstantial evidence is a shame in a safety critical industry that will only improve with a just safety culture.
Unless grossly overfilled, an O2 cylinder will not explode "just like that" due to overfilling; from memory, they are tested at least at 150% of the normal operating pressure, so it'd take a lot to make it explode. And even then, there is an overpressure disk that will rupture and release the pressure. Lastly, what do you mean by "not tightened properly"? What would need tightening after O2 refill?
Apollo 13 suffered an oxygen tank rupture. It's not impossible and has happened before. Compressed gases have the potential to explode under the right circumstances. It was perhaps something to do with a mistake in servicing the tank, perhaps there was a faulty valve, who knows, but it's certainly possible.


No need to look at Apollo 13 (or Apollo 1 for that matter), no need to look any further than the 777 itself . . . :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EgyptAir_Flight_667

Image

PS> For the record, not claiming this happened to MH370, just providing more context to previous discussion . . .
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:13 am

texdravid wrote:
This Malaysian 370 flight is similar in that the Malay government is doing a long term coverup and denying that the Captain was another mass murderer.


Not really. As a matter of fact, the Malaysian government at the time would have amplified the Captain's complicity if they have any evidence that this is the case.He's a strong supporter of the then Opposition leader, so they could have killed the opposition faction by associating the Captain's heinous acts (if he did it) with the Opposition leader and rounding them up as if to say that the Opposition faction were accomplices.

More likely is that the government was confused as to what had happened, made missteps along the way, and was mercilessly criticized by people who thinks they should know better.

texdravid wrote:
Could you imagine a western airline or Asian airline like JAL or SQ doing this?? Of course not.


SilkAir 185. Last time I checked SilkAir is a subsidiary of SQ now, isn't it?
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:04 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
I've heard a fairly convincing story that the real culprit of this was not the Captain but the crew oxygen cylinder exploding. Apparently it was serviced prior to departure, perhaps overfilled or not tightened properly. An explosion of the crew oxygen cylinder would knock out various electrical buses, hence it disappearing off the radar. Otherwise, some of thise CBs would need popping down in the E&E bay. When the decompression occured due to the explosion and the crew donned their masks, low and behold, there was no oxygen as the cylinder had exploded. They then possibly entered unconciousness after commencing the initial actions of the Cabin Altitude checklist and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel.

I'm not saying that with 100% certainty but it's a compelling theory. The jump to accuse the Captain with at best circumstantial evidence is a shame in a safety critical industry that will only improve with a just safety culture.

Unless grossly overfilled, an O2 cylinder will not explode "just like that" due to overfilling; from memory, they are tested at least at 150% of the normal operating pressure, so it'd take a lot to make it explode.
And even then, there is an overpressure disk that will rupture and release the pressure.

Lastly, what do you mean by "not tightened properly"? What would need tightening after O2 refill?


It's happened before though. 747 IIRC.

Edit: Zeke pointed out the QF flight I was thinking of...
Last edited by SomebodyInTLS on Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:07 pm

747megatop wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
I've heard a fairly convincing story that the real culprit of this was not the Captain but the crew oxygen cylinder exploding. Apparently it was serviced prior to departure, perhaps overfilled or not tightened properly. An explosion of the crew oxygen cylinder would knock out various electrical buses, hence it disappearing off the radar. Otherwise, some of thise CBs would need popping down in the E&E bay. When the decompression occured due to the explosion and the crew donned their masks, low and behold, there was no oxygen as the cylinder had exploded. They then possibly entered unconciousness after commencing the initial actions of the Cabin Altitude checklist and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel.

I'm not saying that with 100% certainty but it's a compelling theory. The jump to accuse the Captain with at best circumstantial evidence is a shame in a safety critical industry that will only improve with a just safety culture.

How about explaining all the deliberate and evasive maneuvering after the last contact with ATC? Then this theory can be even remotely entertained and picked up for further debate/discussion.


When you start using words like "deliberate" with literally no evidence then you discount yourself from the discussion.
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:20 pm

Blankbarcode wrote:
One thing I keep noticing about myself reading this, is how my first instinct is to side with the pilots and assume something just went terribly wrong (midair collision with a Malay military jet tearing open the cockpit window, fire on board, etc etc), but the home simulator has always perplexed me. I've only ever heard how it was plotted along the same route and how it was practiced, but if it's such a damning piece of evidence why haven't we seen the data yet? The fact they make it sound like the proof to close the case, yet seem so reluctant to show it, makes me feel like something's not entirely right here.


You have to realise that the one trace heading into the Indian Ocean is always mentioned, but that there were hundreds of other flights flown as well. The funny thing is that the pilot-did-it-crowd always point to a government cover-up, yet their own conspiracy theory started out when someone - presumably representing the government - briefly tried to shift blame to the pilot by selectively leaking information such as this single simulator flight. That tactic was quickly stopped, but the conspiracy theory genie was unleashed from the bottle...
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:05 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
747megatop wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
I've heard a fairly convincing story that the real culprit of this was not the Captain but the crew oxygen cylinder exploding. Apparently it was serviced prior to departure, perhaps overfilled or not tightened properly. An explosion of the crew oxygen cylinder would knock out various electrical buses, hence it disappearing off the radar. Otherwise, some of thise CBs would need popping down in the E&E bay. When the decompression occured due to the explosion and the crew donned their masks, low and behold, there was no oxygen as the cylinder had exploded. They then possibly entered unconciousness after commencing the initial actions of the Cabin Altitude checklist and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel.

I'm not saying that with 100% certainty but it's a compelling theory. The jump to accuse the Captain with at best circumstantial evidence is a shame in a safety critical industry that will only improve with a just safety culture.

How about explaining all the deliberate and evasive maneuvering after the last contact with ATC? Then this theory can be even remotely entertained and picked up for further debate/discussion.


When you start using words like "deliberate" with literally no evidence then you discount yourself from the discussion.


Except there is tons of evidence that the actions were deliberate. There's no possible conclusion that fits all of the known evidence that doesn't involve some deliberate action from a pilot. The Atlantic piece goes into great detail on this in section 5: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... es/590653/

in truth, a lot can now be known with certainty about the fate of MH370. First, the disappearance was an intentional act. It is inconceivable that the known flight path, accompanied by radio and electronic silence, was caused by any combination of system failure and human error. Computer glitch, control-system collapse, squall lines, ice, lightning strike, bird strike, meteorite, volcanic ash, mechanical failure, sensor failure, instrument failure, radio failure, electrical failure, fire, smoke, explosive decompression, cargo explosion, pilot confusion, medical emergency, bomb, war, or act of God—none of these can explain the flight path.


We have lots of circumstantial evidence, and the only explanation that fits all of those pieces of evidence is deliberate action.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:31 pm

Conjecture IS NOT EVIDENCE!

I used the word "literally" for a reason...

It is factually incorrect to say that there is only one explanation to fit the circumstantial evidence... the point about the oxygen bottle above demonstrates an alternative scenario which can be made to fit the circumstantial evidence as well. As could a cockpit fire, for example.

We've seen time and time again (AF447 being a good example) where people just make up some pet theory, get mired in trying to make the facts fit and convince themselves and everyone else that they're right - and then the final conclusion turns out to be something else entirely (and usually much less dramatic). I just wish people would approach these things rationally and refrain from deciding what's happened (usually by seeing evil intent somewhere) to the exclusion of all other possibilities.
Last edited by SomebodyInTLS on Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:44 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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WayexTDI
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:36 pm

zeke wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Unless grossly overfilled, an O2 cylinder will not explode "just like that" due to overfilling; from memory, they are tested at least at 150% of the normal operating pressure, so it'd take a lot to make it explode.
And even then, there is an overpressure disk that will rupture and release the pressure.

Lastly, what do you mean by "not tightened properly"? What would need tightening after O2 refill?


Maybe they are thinking about QF30, oxygen bottle there caused significant damage externally and in the cabin. https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/in ... 8-053.aspx

Image
Image
Image
Image

This O2 bottle exploded due to corrosion, not overfilling; and the maintenance of that bottle (which was never found) raised many questions.
This is a good example of what a damaged O2 cylinder can do when rupturing; still has nothing to do with overfilling or "improperly tightening" as was suggested.
 
blockski
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:44 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Conjecture IS NOT EVIDENCE!

I used the word "literally" for a reason...


Yeah, and you're mistaking a conclusion with the evidence we do have: the satellite data, the primary radar returns, the lack of communication, the switched off transponder, etc. We know portions of the plane's flight path; those turns were made deliberately. We also know that lots of other evidence is most likely the caused by deliberate action (like switching the transponder off) particularly when compared with what else we know about the plane's flight path.

So, let me re-phrase: there is tons of evidence that supports the conclusion that it was a deliberate action. Furthermore, the evidence (in total) doesn't support any other conclusion except that there was a deliberate action on behalf of a pilot.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:49 pm

blockski wrote:
So, let me re-phrase: there is tons of evidence that supports the conclusion that it was a deliberate action.


Granted.

Furthermore, the evidence (in total) doesn't support any other conclusion except that there was a deliberate action on behalf of a pilot.


But this is simply wrong. It is your belief, not a fact.

I can see other scenarios which would fit as well. If I latch onto one of those and state that the evidence doesn't support any other conclusion - where does that leave you?
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:06 pm

My big problems with "pilot did it" are:

- statistically highly unlikely (only one proven case and a couple of other suspected cases)

- started by a journalistic character assassination based on that flight sim data and a Facebook image where he's brandishing a knife as a joke (yes, seriously - that's when this story started to gain traction) - when viewed rationally (e.g. the simulator flight being but one of hundreds they recovered) there was nothing in that story at all, it was a very obvious and clumsy attempt to point the finger

- no convincing rationale for doing it

- if it was deliberate, no convincing rationale for such a bizarre sequence of events instead of e.g. just crashing into the sea or some building to make a statement

- inflating the fact they made one turn back towards Malaysia then another after overflying Penang into "trying to avoid radar"... which it obviously didn't anyway

- constant use of words like "deliberate" "switching off the transponder" etc. when we don't know that these were actions or consequences of other things happening to the aircraft

There's more but I can't be bothered to go through it all again.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
tmoney
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:24 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
My big problems with "pilot did it" are:

- statistically highly unlikely (only one proven case and a couple of other suspected cases)

- started by a journalistic character assassination based on that flight sim data and a Facebook image where he's brandishing a knife as a joke (yes, seriously - that's when this story started to gain traction) - when viewed rationally (e.g. the simulator flight being but one of hundreds they recovered) there was nothing in that story at all, it was a very obvious and clumsy attempt to point the finger

- no convincing rationale for doing it

- if it was deliberate, no convincing rationale for such a bizarre sequence of events instead of e.g. just crashing into the sea or some building to make a statement

- inflating the fact they made one turn back towards Malaysia then another after overflying Penang into "trying to avoid radar"... which it obviously didn't anyway

- constant use of words like "deliberate" "switching off the transponder" etc. when we don't know that these were actions or consequences of other things happening to the aircraft

There's more but I can't be bothered to go through it all again.


Agreed.
Assuming Capt Z somehow got the FO out of the flight deck and was able to turn off the electronics by the time they crossed into HCM FIR, why not just ditch the ac into the South China Sea then and there?
I'll even entertain the whole "flying over Penang for a final goodbye to his hometown" theory, Capt Z could have still crashed into the sea right there. No need to fly all these elaborate courses to finally commit what people think he did.
Why toil for over 6-8 hours just to reach the same conclusion when you can do it in an hour or two?
There's got to be more than the murder-suicide theory. It's too easy. Too sensationalist.
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workhorse
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:27 pm

during the turn, the airplane climbed up to 40,000 feet, which was close to its limit.



the reason for the climb was to accelerate the effects of depressurizing the airplane, causing the rapid incapacitation and death of everyone in the cabin.


With all due respect, hasn't this been debunked on this very forum?

If I remember well the old thread, it was said that you cannot depressurize a 777 to the point where people fall unconscious, unless there's an actual hole in the fuselage (like a missing window), because the valve that regulates pressure opens only to a certain extent and thus the outflow of air will never be sufficient for the onboard pressure to fall below survivable level.

Also, I seem to remember that there were serious doubts that a 777-200ER could climb to 40,000 feet with the load and the fuel on board it was supposed to have at that point of the flight.
 
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enilria
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:52 pm

einkleinerknabe wrote:
enilria wrote:
They basically said that the Malaysian military lied about the flight path to cover up that they shut off the air defense radar for the night and are basically not really protecting the country...


But it was the Indonesian military that had turned off the radar, according to the article. The Malaysian radar tracked the plane well into Indonesian air space (west of Penang). The article claims Malaysia was afraid of something coming out during the investigation that might embarrass the country:

A close observer of the MH370 process said, “It became clear that the primary objective of the Malaysians was to make the subject just go away. From the start there was this instinctive bias against being open and transparent, not because they were hiding some deep, dark secret, but because they did not know where the truth really lay, and they were afraid that something might come out that would be embarrassing. Were they covering up? Yes. They were covering up for the unknown.”

I may have misunderstood that, but whoever it was it appeared they covered up that they just turn off the air defense radar at night? WTF is that? Why even have it? Clearly there was reason to cover up that they are not protecting their skies whether it was the Indonesians or Malaysians.
Blankbarcode wrote:
One thing I keep noticing about myself reading this, is how my first instinct is to side with the pilots and assume something just went terribly wrong (midair collision with a Malay military jet tearing open the cockpit window, fire on board, etc etc), but the home simulator has always perplexed me. I've only ever heard how it was plotted along the same route and how it was practiced, but if it's such a damning piece of evidence why haven't we seen the data yet? The fact they make it sound like the proof to close the case, yet seem so reluctant to show it, makes me feel like something's not entirely right here.
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
- if it was deliberate, no convincing rationale for such a bizarre sequence of events instead of e.g. just crashing into the sea or some building to make a statement

There are lots of reasons to make a suicide look like an accident. Insurance is a big one. If he felt guilt over shacking up with a Flight Attendants and wanted to make sure he did not have his family suffer financially from his death. Another is loss of face for his family/shame. That's a big deal in Asian culture. Perhaps he thought this would leave open the possibility that he died a hero fighting off a hijacker. There are other possible reasons, but those are the most likely. If he did crash the plane.
 
Austin787
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:04 pm

Many people mentioned "deliberate action". If there was an emergency on board, such as oxygen tank explosion or fire, the pilots will take deliberate action - divert the airplane, head to the nearest suitable airport, and land ASAP. As for the transponder turning off, it could caused by the emergency knocking out the transponder, or the pilots pulling circuit breakers to control an on board fire.
 
blockski
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:04 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
But this is simply wrong. It is your belief, not a fact.

I can see other scenarios which would fit as well. If I latch onto one of those and state that the evidence doesn't support any other conclusion - where does that leave you?


It's not my belief at all, it is the logical conclusion I've come to (as have many others) based on the evidence that we have. I'm not just stating that the evidence doesn't support any other conclusion, but the actual evidence doesn't support any other conclusion.

Now, obviously we don't know any details, we don't know about motive, etc. But the inescapable conclusion (as laid out in the article, convincingly) is that the events of that night were the result of deliberate action.
 
blockski
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:07 pm

Austin787 wrote:
Many people mentioned "deliberate action". If there was an emergency on board, such as oxygen tank explosion or fire, the pilots will take deliberate action - divert the airplane, head to the nearest suitable airport, and land ASAP. As for the transponder turning off, it could caused by the emergency knocking out the transponder, or the pilots pulling circuit breakers to control an on board fire.


Ok, but again - you can't just selectively pick and choose some evidence but not others. If there were an emergency on board that somehow disabled the transponder and communications, you'd expect (as you note) them to divert to the nearest suitable airport. But they didn't do that.
 
Austin787
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:27 pm

blockski wrote:
Austin787 wrote:
Many people mentioned "deliberate action". If there was an emergency on board, such as oxygen tank explosion or fire, the pilots will take deliberate action - divert the airplane, head to the nearest suitable airport, and land ASAP. As for the transponder turning off, it could caused by the emergency knocking out the transponder, or the pilots pulling circuit breakers to control an on board fire.


Ok, but again - you can't just selectively pick and choose some evidence but not others. If there were an emergency on board that somehow disabled the transponder and communications, you'd expect (as you note) them to divert to the nearest suitable airport. But they didn't do that.

Maybe the pilots felt going back to Malaysia, possibly Penang, was the best option.
 
blockski
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:34 pm

Austin787 wrote:
blockski wrote:
Austin787 wrote:
Many people mentioned "deliberate action". If there was an emergency on board, such as oxygen tank explosion or fire, the pilots will take deliberate action - divert the airplane, head to the nearest suitable airport, and land ASAP. As for the transponder turning off, it could caused by the emergency knocking out the transponder, or the pilots pulling circuit breakers to control an on board fire.


Ok, but again - you can't just selectively pick and choose some evidence but not others. If there were an emergency on board that somehow disabled the transponder and communications, you'd expect (as you note) them to divert to the nearest suitable airport. But they didn't do that.

Maybe the pilots felt going back to Malaysia, possibly Penang, was the best option.


But again, that doesn't fit all of the evidence. Because they didn't try to land in Penang; the plane then made a series of controlled turns before heading south over the Indian Ocean.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:37 pm

enilria wrote:
Blankbarcode wrote:
One thing I keep noticing about myself reading this, is how my first instinct is to side with the pilots and assume something just went terribly wrong (midair collision with a Malay military jet tearing open the cockpit window, fire on board, etc etc), but the home simulator has always perplexed me. I've only ever heard how it was plotted along the same route and how it was practiced, but if it's such a damning piece of evidence why haven't we seen the data yet? The fact they make it sound like the proof to close the case, yet seem so reluctant to show it, makes me feel like something's not entirely right here.
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
- if it was deliberate, no convincing rationale for such a bizarre sequence of events instead of e.g. just crashing into the sea or some building to make a statement

There are lots of reasons to make a suicide look like an accident. Insurance is a big one. If he felt guilt over shacking up with a Flight Attendants and wanted to make sure he did not have his family suffer financially from his death. Another is loss of face for his family/shame. That's a big deal in Asian culture. Perhaps he thought this would leave open the possibility that he died a hero fighting off a hijacker. There are other possible reasons, but those are the most likely. If he did crash the plane.


But it must be easier to plan a fake accident than going through all that! If you want to fake an accident surely it would be quicker and easier to do something like sabotage a hydraulic line in such a way as to look like failure. The more complicated, the more chance your plan will fail.

This brings up another two of my problems:

- If everything was planned the way it played out - in all its bizarre details - what if things had gone differently? What if ATC had realised something was up straight away and the various national agencies had made a better effort to track them? Say Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand or Indonesia had sent up military aircraft to intercept? Why - if you assume you're trying to "disappear" - would you fly right back across so many countries' airspace? Saying "flying along the border confuses the Thai/Malaysian ATC" is taking massive hindsight about what transpired and making it a motive when there's no way you could know beforehand that would have worked.

- "to make it look like an accident" ... well it doesn't look like a typical accident, does it!? Every additional twist and turn is less "accident" and more like some weird sh!t was going on... And as far as I'm concerned weird sh!t implies wrestling with faulty mechanisms or trying to overcome control issues

Edit: or possibly some kind of fight taking place on board - I rank terrorism more likely than pilot-did-it, but without a motive aircraft issues still rank higher in my opinion.
Last edited by SomebodyInTLS on Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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peterinlisbon
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:45 pm

I think it's highly likely that this was pilot suicide. Any kind of emergency wouldn't have caused the aircraft to switch off all of its communications equipment right after leaving Malaysian ATC and then to make turns that appear calculated to avoid radar control. It's also too much of a coincidence that the captain had flown the same route on his Flight Simulator at home, showing him where he'd be when he ran out of fuel.

My theory - he waited for the co-pilot to leave the cockpit or sent him out to check on something just after leaving Malaysian control. Then he locked the door, opened the outflow valve, put on an oxygen mask, climbed to 40,000 feet and turned off the transponder and satellite link. After half an hour everyone would be unconscious except for him. His last words are kind of chilling: "Good Night, Malaysian 370".
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:51 pm

blockski wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
But this is simply wrong. It is your belief, not a fact.

I can see other scenarios which would fit as well. If I latch onto one of those and state that the evidence doesn't support any other conclusion - where does that leave you?


It's not my belief at all, it is the logical conclusion I've come to (as have many others) based on the evidence that we have. I'm not just stating that the evidence doesn't support any other conclusion, but the actual evidence doesn't support any other conclusion.


In which case the investigating agencies (across the world) are all idiots and "many other" people on teh interwebs have solved the mystery! Hooray!
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
WkndWanderer
Posts: 258
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Re: The Atlantic Tackles MH370 Final Conclusions

Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:20 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:

But it must be easier to plan a fake accident than going through all that! If you want to fake an accident surely it would be quicker and easier to do something like sabotage a hydraulic line in such a way as to look like failure. The more complicated, the more chance your plan will fail.


You are trying to apply rational thought about what would be "easier" or the best fake accident to a scenario and decision that would be inherently irrational. And no it would not be easier to sabotage the airplane to cause a redundant system to totally fail in such a way to make it look like an accident , it would be much more difficult to do so undetected, and the wreckage would more likely be in an area where it would be recovered and accident and forensic analysis is incredibly sophisticated and would have likely pinpointed the cause. The easiest way for a pilot to deliberately cause an accident is through direct control as we have seen in the past. If you wanted to do it in a manner where the aircraft would not be located and the truth would be difficult to identify for reasons of insurance, cultural stigma, shame, to create a mystery, for reasons that are not rational in a mind that has chosen that path, or any combination of the above, you would frankly not be able to plan much better than what the data on MH370 points toward. There are other theories that can account for one or a couple of the known data points about MH370's known flight data, radar information, maneuvers, path, satellite system stops and starts, and the components of the Inmarsat info, the pieces of wreckage recovered, but when the pieces of evidence and known data are combined the process of elimination winnows many those out...as much as some try to discount, minimize, or outright ignore the information that doesn't fit or support their preferred theories. I actually think that the Zaharie's friend interviewed in the article, the other 777 pilot, explains that pretty well in the portion where he talks how the pyramid of possibilities narrows down to one thing at the top and how it was personally difficult for him to accept.

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