Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
RexBanner wrote:Landing performance in Jersey with the Max 8 is going to be a bit of an issue. In theory it’s doable but factor in a wet runway and/or a couple of knots tailwind (ie quartering tailwind across 26 utilizing the lower minima in fog on that runway) and there’s go oning to be problems. That one will be very interesting as it’s BA’s most frequent route out of Gatwick (outside of Malaga in the summer).
Shrewfly wrote:hongkongflyer wrote:MarkusMUC wrote:I my view Boeing and airliners which fly 737 Max have a real problem.
Yesterday my wife said "I don't want to fly BA" in autumn (although BA its her favourite airline).
I asked: "Why?"
She said: "British Airways bought 737 Max".
I said: "British Airways won't fly 737 Max in autumn".
My conclusion:
When ordinary passengers (normally without fear of flying) fears the 737 Max, then the image of Boeings 737 Max is completely destroyed and it will impact on bookings.
In my view Boeing and its 737 Max customers will need a longer period without any 737 Max crashes to re-establish trust in 737 Max.
In reality, no ordinary passengers will pay attention to whether they are flying 737 Max months after the grounding is lifted.
AND, BA can always choose not to the model operating the flight on the website if they want (and if the MAX really hurting the booking numbers).
I wouldnt be so sure
There were people actively avoiding DC10s at one point, and in this day of instant communication and mass media, people have easy access to news and are far more aware than they were back then.
There probably wont be enough pax trying to avoid the MAX to make a difference, but some will. I'd be amazed if Boeing didnt rebrand the model mind
Cunard wrote:RexBanner wrote:Landing performance in Jersey with the Max 8 is going to be a bit of an issue. In theory it’s doable but factor in a wet runway and/or a couple of knots tailwind (ie quartering tailwind across 26 utilizing the lower minima in fog on that runway) and there’s go oning to be problems. That one will be very interesting as it’s BA’s most frequent route out of Gatwick (outside of Malaga in the summer).
I should imagine that Jersey will eventually be transferred from LGW to LHR especially once the British Airways shorthaul fleet at LGW is completely Boeing. The Airbus is more suitable for Jersey and for that reason I can see it moving from LGW to LHR at some point.
jfk777 wrote:Willie Walsh is hedging his airplane portfolio recently, except for the 787 fleet at BA, every new plane at BA, Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus has been an Airbus. Iberia and Aer Lingus are Airbus exclusive airlines for both short & long haul with the exception of a few 757 at the Irish airline.
N1KE wrote:...
Airlines don’t just sign LOI for nothing. It must have met a requirement on price, use, cost and mission for it to get to this stage. IAG explained where the aircraft was going to be used when and if the order is firmed then they will be operating where they need them, not where a.net believes they can and can’t. I feel sure they done some analysis on the type. Really can’t imagine them just turning up on Boeing’s door and signing a form of contract and then say we don’t where we are going to use them or on what missions, but we got them cheap and we will worry about that later.
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VV wrote:N1KE wrote:...
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containers closed.
musman9853 wrote:PlymSpotter wrote:WayexTDI wrote:Not sure which shares you're talking about; but Airbus is slightly up right now, so I guess investors are not too worried about losing this potential order...
IAG's shares dropped quite substantially after the LOI was announced. They have since recovered, but it is a sign that the markets were not bullish on the news.
As it's turning out there wasn't a competitive process involved in the planned order, then it is unsurprising that a lot of investors and traders are bearish on IAG.
But that being said, I'm hearing a lot of views that this isn't a real order to be taken seriously at this point, and that the competitive process with Airbus hasn't yet begun. If so, interesting positioning by IAG - it puts them in a very strong negotiating position. 'Beat these terms or we'll convert the LOI'.
sorry, what are you talking about? IAG stock is up a few percent since the beginning of PAS
PlymSpotter wrote:musman9853 wrote:PlymSpotter wrote:
IAG's shares dropped quite substantially after the LOI was announced. They have since recovered, but it is a sign that the markets were not bullish on the news.
As it's turning out there wasn't a competitive process involved in the planned order, then it is unsurprising that a lot of investors and traders are bearish on IAG.
But that being said, I'm hearing a lot of views that this isn't a real order to be taken seriously at this point, and that the competitive process with Airbus hasn't yet begun. If so, interesting positioning by IAG - it puts them in a very strong negotiating position. 'Beat these terms or we'll convert the LOI'.
sorry, what are you talking about? IAG stock is up a few percent since the beginning of PAS
Why don't you review IAG's share price. I don't really feel there is anything else I can add to make it more obvious, other than what I've already said:
'IAG's shares dropped quite substantially after the LOI was announced. They have since recovered, but it is a sign that the markets were not bullish on the news.'
sxf24 wrote:PlymSpotter wrote:musman9853 wrote:
sorry, what are you talking about? IAG stock is up a few percent since the beginning of PAS
Why don't you review IAG's share price. I don't really feel there is anything else I can add to make it more obvious, other than what I've already said:
'IAG's shares dropped quite substantially after the LOI was announced. They have since recovered, but it is a sign that the markets were not bullish on the news.'
The sudden drop in share price is less about the MAX, but more a function of the markets displeasure with surprises. I think the share price performance would have been similar if IAG ordered 200 A220s.
bgm wrote:sxf24 wrote:PlymSpotter wrote:
Why don't you review IAG's share price. I don't really feel there is anything else I can add to make it more obvious, other than what I've already said:
'IAG's shares dropped quite substantially after the LOI was announced. They have since recovered, but it is a sign that the markets were not bullish on the news.'
The sudden drop in share price is less about the MAX, but more a function of the markets displeasure with surprises. I think the share price performance would have been similar if IAG ordered 200 A220s.
The A220 hasn't had 2 fatal crashes within months of each other with hundreds of lives lost, nor has it been grounded for months. The markets are jittery because IAG ordered a flawed airplane which a less than stellar safety record.
bgm wrote:[
The A220 hasn't had 2 fatal crashes within months of each other with hundreds of lives lost, nor has it been grounded for months. The markets are jittery because IAG ordered a flawed airplane which a less than stellar safety record.
PlymSpotter wrote:@ bgm - exactly, this order caused nerves.
Markets encounter surprises every day, however they can be categorised into positive and negative. Typically traders react bullishly or bearishly, depending on the categorisation.
bob75013 wrote:bgm wrote:[
The A220 hasn't had 2 fatal crashes within months of each other with hundreds of lives lost, nor has it been grounded for months. The markets are jittery because IAG ordered a flawed airplane which a less than stellar safety record.
You forgot to use the term IMO - because that's all it is. When the share price recovered almost immediately, it showed the initial reaction was kneejerk, and your opinion was wrong -- of course IMO.
Revelation wrote:PlymSpotter wrote:@ bgm - exactly, this order caused nerves.
Markets encounter surprises every day, however they can be categorised into positive and negative. Typically traders react bullishly or bearishly, depending on the categorisation.
Which amounts to: not much.
Get back to us when we see institutional investors start circulating a motion to oust the IAG board.
Till then, just another day in the stock market.
bgm wrote:bob75013 wrote:bgm wrote:[
The A220 hasn't had 2 fatal crashes within months of each other with hundreds of lives lost, nor has it been grounded for months. The markets are jittery because IAG ordered a flawed airplane which a less than stellar safety record.
You forgot to use the term IMO - because that's all it is. When the share price recovered almost immediately, it showed the initial reaction was kneejerk, and your opinion was wrong -- of course IMO.
What are you disagreeing with?
- you say it’s my opinion that the A220 hasn’t had 2 fatal crashes?
- you says that it’s my opinion that 2 fatal crashes of the 737 MAX within months of each other for a new type is not a stellar safety record?
Maybe in the US because you’re so blinded by your loyalty to Boeing, you’re viewing the Max as a much better plane that it actually is. Outside of the US, people view the MAX with a much more critical eye.
“IMO”
bgm wrote:sxf24 wrote:PlymSpotter wrote:
Why don't you review IAG's share price. I don't really feel there is anything else I can add to make it more obvious, other than what I've already said:
'IAG's shares dropped quite substantially after the LOI was announced. They have since recovered, but it is a sign that the markets were not bullish on the news.'
The sudden drop in share price is less about the MAX, but more a function of the markets displeasure with surprises. I think the share price performance would have been similar if IAG ordered 200 A220s.
The A220 hasn't had 2 fatal crashes within months of each other with hundreds of lives lost, nor has it been grounded for months. The markets are jittery because IAG ordered a flawed airplane which a less than stellar safety record.
PlymSpotter wrote:It is significant for two reasons. Firstly, you have a significant negative reaction to the order (well, LoI) but, secondly and actually more importantly, there was no lasting damage to the share price, which rallied within a few days. Other airlines looking at MAX orders will have been analysing this closely.
BA777FO wrote:Cunard wrote:RexBanner wrote:Landing performance in Jersey with the Max 8 is going to be a bit of an issue. In theory it’s doable but factor in a wet runway and/or a couple of knots tailwind (ie quartering tailwind across 26 utilizing the lower minima in fog on that runway) and there’s go oning to be problems. That one will be very interesting as it’s BA’s most frequent route out of Gatwick (outside of Malaga in the summer).
I should imagine that Jersey will eventually be transferred from LGW to LHR especially once the British Airways shorthaul fleet at LGW is completely Boeing. The Airbus is more suitable for Jersey and for that reason I can see it moving from LGW to LHR at some point.
I think that's unlikely until a 3rd runway at LHR opens. It's a slot issue. A 737 Max can cope with Jersey just fine to and from LGW on a 30 minute sector. The 737-400s had steel brakes rather than carbon ones and it was never an issue stopping it. It was tight on a wet runway with little headwind, but no real issue. Takeoff performance was usually with a hefty de-rate too.
I think it'd be a perfect swap to coincide with a 3rd runway but until then 5 slot pairs for Jersey are better used by 787s, A350s and 77Ws etc on longhaul.
f4f3a wrote:Didn’t ba get it’s airbuses a320s cheap away back when airbus were struggling by putting in a large order ? I’m sure this is just the same . Maybe a warning shot to airbus to keep future a320 series competitive priced
bgm wrote:sxf24 wrote:PlymSpotter wrote:
Why don't you review IAG's share price. I don't really feel there is anything else I can add to make it more obvious, other than what I've already said:
'IAG's shares dropped quite substantially after the LOI was announced. They have since recovered, but it is a sign that the markets were not bullish on the news.'
The sudden drop in share price is less about the MAX, but more a function of the markets displeasure with surprises. I think the share price performance would have been similar if IAG ordered 200 A220s.
The A220 hasn't had 2 fatal crashes within months of each other with hundreds of lives lost, nor has it been grounded for months. The markets are jittery because IAG ordered a flawed airplane which a less than stellar safety record.
upperdeckfan wrote:Since IB have not operated a Boeing in years and they have A32N's on order - last I recall were wet-leased 744's they flew to Canaries around the mid 2000's - I find quite odd for them to get 73M's. Another fact is that none of the major european carriers (considering AF and KL different brands) operate a mix A/B short-haul fleet.
lightsaber wrote:So much angst over one order. I do not understand. Boeing's engineers are capable. Deals happen. It is an obvious win for both sides.Shrewfly wrote:hongkongflyer wrote:
In reality, no ordinary passengers will pay attention to whether they are flying 737 Max months after the grounding is lifted.
AND, BA can always choose not to the model operating the flight on the website if they want (and if the MAX really hurting the booking numbers).
I wouldnt be so sure
There were people actively avoiding DC10s at one point, and in this day of instant communication and mass media, people have easy access to news and are far more aware than they were back then.
There probably wont be enough pax trying to avoid the MAX to make a difference, but some will. I'd be amazed if Boeing didnt rebrand the model mind
I'm certain after return to service, the MAX branding goes away and becomes something else.
Notice no one knows the 737-8 crashed? They know the MAX crashed. A rebrand is required.
Lightsaber
bgm wrote:Outside of the US, people view the MAX with a much more critical eye.
IPFreely wrote:What people outside of the US?
bgm wrote:IPFreely wrote:What people outside of the US?
The people that actually buy tickets that fund these airlines.
Anyway, fingers crossed it will never materialize. Thankfully it's not an order, merely a letter of intent.
Bobloblaw wrote:bgm wrote:IPFreely wrote:What people outside of the US?
The people that actually buy tickets that fund these airlines.
Anyway, fingers crossed it will never materialize. Thankfully it's not an order, merely a letter of intent.
So you’re hoping IAG never takes delivery of these aircraft?
bgm wrote:Bobloblaw wrote:bgm wrote:
The people that actually buy tickets that fund these airlines.
Anyway, fingers crossed it will never materialize. Thankfully it's not an order, merely a letter of intent.
So you’re hoping IAG never takes delivery of these aircraft?
Given the seemingly endless issues this plane is riddled with, and more being discovered by the day, no, I hope they do not take delivery of these aircraft.
JerseyFlyer wrote:My conclusion: a strategic decision to diversify linked to a one-time opportunity for cheap early deliveries:
“During a webcasted panel session at the ACI Europe annual congress in the Cypriot city of Limassol on 26 June, Walsh noted that there had been ‘concern’ within the airline group for some time that it was becoming too reliant on the European airframer,” reported Flight Global, who went on to attribute Walsh saying that it was “Unhealthy” to rely only on one manufacturer.
https://simpleflying.com/iag-airbus-captivity/
Bobloblaw wrote:bgm wrote:Bobloblaw wrote:So you’re hoping IAG never takes delivery of these aircraft?
Given the seemingly endless issues this plane is riddled with, and more being discovered by the day, no, I hope they do not take delivery of these aircraft.
It’s not endless issues and the plane isnt riddled. It one big issue that’s ongoing in one area.
Bobloblaw wrote:bgm wrote:Bobloblaw wrote:So you’re hoping IAG never takes delivery of these aircraft?
Given the seemingly endless issues this plane is riddled with, and more being discovered by the day, no, I hope they do not take delivery of these aircraft.
It’s not endless issues and the plane isnt riddled. It one big issue that’s ongoing in one area.
bgm wrote:IPFreely wrote:What people outside of the US?
The people that actually buy tickets that fund these airlines.
Anyway, fingers crossed it will never materialize. Thankfully it's not an order, merely a letter of intent.
chiad wrote:Bobloblaw wrote:bgm wrote:
Given the seemingly endless issues this plane is riddled with, and more being discovered by the day, no, I hope they do not take delivery of these aircraft.
It’s not endless issues and the plane isnt riddled. It one big issue that’s ongoing in one area.
It's not that far off.
The plane design flawed.
The software (to restore the flawed plane design) is flawed, something if ongoing and expanding.
The certification is flawed.
The outsourcing is flawed.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -engineers
IMHO this program doesn't deserve recertification.
nickllhill wrote:VV wrote:nickllhill wrote:Am I being silly in thinking.. These can’t go to BA at Heathrow as they can’t take containers?
Why are people so obsessed by containers on single aisle aircraft. Get over it.
Does Ryanair have issues with containers?
Do you know how expensive it is to carry a lot of baggage in Europe?
Damn! Please stop this madness about containers on short haul flights in Europe.
I agree with you, my only point is I heard BA were set on this, even going on to sell some non compatible BMI A320s
I guess the big shock (for me at least) that they have opted for this then dropping containers is hardly a stretch.
MrHMSH wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:MrHMSH wrote:
Since the order isn't firm, not quite.
Not all LOIs turn into orders. (See indecisive ME3 carriers, or carriers gated by their respective governments.) But if you think an LOI of this size from BA isn't going to turn into a firm order your capacity for denial is extraordinary.
We'll have to wait and see, but I'm not in denial, the order isn't firm and the planes haven't been delivered yet. Until we're nearer the time they'll be assembled/delivered it's still just a possibility.
Bobloblaw wrote:bgm wrote:Bobloblaw wrote:So you’re hoping IAG never takes delivery of these aircraft?
Given the seemingly endless issues this plane is riddled with, and more being discovered by the day, no, I hope they do not take delivery of these aircraft.
It’s not endless issues and the plane isnt riddled. It one big issue that’s ongoing in one area.
PepeTheFrog wrote:^^ and with Willie Walsh going out (the MAX LOI was his idea after all), perhaps BA will let the LOI lapse.
PepeTheFrog wrote:^^ and with Willie Walsh going out (the MAX LOI was his idea after all), perhaps IAG will let the LOI lapse.