Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
smileymilo
Posts: 5
Joined: Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:03 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:52 am

The A380 is not a failure it is a casualty of today's market as is the B748. If Airbus had this product 30 years ago it would have shared the 744 market and Boeing would have not been happy. What we have today is too many airlines with too many seats in the market that once was only dominated longhaul by the B747. It works on a few routes such Australia to Doha or Dubai and a few major Europe to North american routes but these again have been swamped by too many airlines. A number of airlines have gone under recently but a tiny percentage compared with another GFC about to happen which will see a lot more go to the wall. Give another 10 years then the A380 product maybe a better proposition but it will be too late and the legacy airlines have turned to twins. Success for the airlines is to make profit on its slimmer routes but 80% load factors hence why the Paris airshow has had good orders for the twin aisle aircraft and mostly LR. Its not about cost per seat mile as the A380 and B748 compete well on economy, its about filling those seats.

We as a community have to accept that unless 25% of the world airlines disappear and LCC cease to exist on Longhaul routes the A380 and B747 has no place in aviation as they just can't fill the seats. Its basic economics that the owners of both types mostly legacy airlines have accepted and so have the manufacturers. Shame as both are exceptional aircraft and I will miss them. The manufacturers only care about a few models now on Longhaul B777, B787. A330 and A350. 80% loads and profit.

Our greed has caused its demise and a willingness to sit in a twin aisle especially 737's and A32 series and social media and internet.

Supply and demand its as simple as that.

The downside is that airports are struggling to deal with the additional aircraft created from today's economics and slots become even more valuable.

Cheers
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13278
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:00 am

smileymilo wrote:
The manufacturers only care about a few models now on Longhaul B777, B787. A330 and A350. 80% loads and profit.

Our greed has caused its demise and a willingness to sit in a twin aisle especially 737's and A32 series and social media and internet.

What are you even talking about?

Word-salad aside, the simple truth is that newer, smaller, more efficient aircraft are allowing more people to get where they want to go, in 1 stop or less... thus lessening the need for giant double-deckers to cram people through crowded superhubs on both ends of their longhaul journey.

That's not "greed," that's simple market evolution.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
mwhcvt
Posts: 1007
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 2:01 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:03 am

Revelation wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Is it heading to BA?

Don't forget, QR is a shareholder of IAG, surely they can make arrangement for BA to have the 6 QR A380s for a song.

The song will be a wail, because the QR frames have GP7200 and BA runs Trents.


Well certainly not desirable I don’t see that as being a deal killer for BA assuming the price is right and they can get a power by the hour deal from EA, I’d also assume any deal would also cover buying QR spares pool for the fleet
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
User avatar
BoeingVista
Posts: 2060
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:54 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:32 am

Revelation wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Is it heading to BA?

Don't forget, QR is a shareholder of IAG, surely they can make arrangement for BA to have the 6 QR A380s for a song.

The song will be a wail, because the QR frames have GP7200 and BA runs Trents.


As long as power by the hour is included in any purchase agreement this shouldn't be a deal breaker but having said that BA (IAG) have had plenty of opportunity to buy second hand A380's and have not, I think the A380 ship has sailed.
BV
 
oldannyboy
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:28 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:36 am

Revelation wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Is it heading to BA?

Don't forget, QR is a shareholder of IAG, surely they can make arrangement for BA to have the 6 QR A380s for a song.

The song will be a wail, because the QR frames have GP7200 and BA runs Trents.


OMG. BA and WW are such huge moaners. I really cannot stand them. I mean, they have operated literally ALL of engine variants for the 747 at one time, plus the 777 has both GE and RR, not to mention the A32s fleet has had CFMs and V25s for centuries....
If the price is right, and if they REALLY want/need A380s they absolutely CAN get these.
I agree it is going to be yet another wail from BA's management.
 
smileymilo
Posts: 5
Joined: Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:03 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:17 am

LAX772LR wrote:
smileymilo wrote:
The manufacturers only care about a few models now on Longhaul B777, B787. A330 and A350. 80% loads and profit.

Our greed has caused its demise and a willingness to sit in a twin aisle especially 737's and A32 series and social media and internet.

What are you even talking about?

Word-salad aside, the simple truth is that newer, smaller, more efficient aircraft are allowing more people to get where they want to go, in 1 stop or less... thus lessening the need for giant double-deckers to cram people through crowded superhubs on both ends of their longhaul journey.

That's not "greed," that's simple market evolution.


We only can do this as we have so many airlines. It is greed as we today we think we should have everything for free. If we took 25% of the airlines out which trust me may happen in the next 5 years then we will have to pay more but get better service. I am talking about longhaul. Do I want to travel from australia to asia in a A321. No bloody way. 9 hours in a tiny can. Yes to 3 or 4. Simple market evolution will reinvent itself when market conditions allow. Fuel efficiency has nothing to do with longhaul bulk routes. 4 engines are fine with their modern engines its bums on seats. Appreciate your view though.
 
Cerecl
Posts: 625
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:22 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:49 am

RJMAZ wrote:
China should snap up all the used A380's and put them to work between their megahubs.

Get 800 seats on them. Fuel burn wouldn't be an issue on short routes.

Not happening. They need sort out their congested airspace first. Can you imagine the calamity of having to rebook/reschedule 800 people?
I am not seeing anything bigger than A35K for any Chinese airline except maybe CA would consider 779. The majority of their medium/longhaul mission would be 787/A350/A330neo where as domestics would be mostly by A320/737 family.
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2054
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:03 am

Cerecl wrote:
Not happening. They need sort out their congested airspace first.

Replacing four narrowbody flights with a single A380 will fix their congested airspace.

Such an obvious fix.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24657
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:15 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Cerecl wrote:
Not happening. They need sort out their congested airspace first.

Replacing four narrowbody flights with a single A380 will fix their congested airspace.

Such an obvious fix.

Time to whip out the Mencken quote again:

    For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.

Yes, Chinese domestics have competition: it's the place with the most HSR in the world!!! So yes, fuel consumption matters, jetliners don't burn coal, they too import their oil!!!

And yes, adding A380s to a crowded airspace isn't going to reduce congestion, it's just going to add more flights from minor spokes to fill A380s on the trunk routes.

Airspace rationalization is the obvious answer, but it's not happening due to government vs army politics.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Cerecl
Posts: 625
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:22 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:26 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Replacing four narrowbody flights with a single A380 will fix their congested airspace.
Such an obvious fix.

The congestion in Chinese airspace is primarily due to PLA Air Force controlling much of the routes not that there are too many aircrafts. 1-2 hrs flight is not the forte of A380, it does not have a worthwhile fuel advantage if any at all. It would be very restricted to where it can fly, it kills frequency which is important in domestic operations, it would be a disaster when the inevitable cancellation or long delay occurs. To summarise-too much trouble for not much gain, and no flexibility.

Look I am a fan of A380 and try to fly on one at every opportunity but I am also a realist, and recognise that it is not going to work for Chinese airlines now or in the foreseeable future save maybe a few international routes. Certainly not going to be the mainstay on domestic flights.
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
jayunited
Posts: 2977
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:55 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
What about the possibility of ANA taking a couple more for high-density domestic flights (like the 747)?

What about another carrier wanting to use it to test the capacity but not commit to full-price (SA? GA? NZ? TK?)?

Would some of these make their way into IR's fleet (they flew 747s into Europe...I'm certain they could attempt an A380)?



Not going to happen ANA never wanted the A380 however they had to take delivery of 3 of them as a result of their acquisition of Skymark Airlines. Just as recently as 2015 ANA stated they didn't see a need for the A380 in the Japanese marke and I'm not sure how much of a stake Airbus had in Skymark but during bankruptcy Delta Airlines submitted their own restructuring bid for Skymark along with other airlines. ANA wanted Skymark because they wanted more access to the Japanese domestic and more importantly ANA wanted more slots at HND. Airbus was originally backing Delta's bid for Skymark but dropped their support for Delta's bid in favor of ANA's bid after ANA agreed to take delivery of 3 of Skymarks A380s which I think were already nearing the end of production. Originally Skymark order 6 A380s ANA was required to take 3 and allowed to cancel the remaining 3. According to multiple articles on this topic ANA calculated that the benefits of growing their domestic market share and gaining valuable slots at HND far out weighed the cost of taking on 3 A380s.

Plane and simple Airbus knew back in 2015 the sun was setting on the A380 but they wanted to extend it life so they use it as a bargaining chip to get that aircraft into another airlines fleet. If there was any other way for ANA to get their hands on Skymark I believe they would have taken it but they only way was through Airbus and their A380.

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ort-260531
https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... oth-184574
https://mainlymiles.com/2018/12/14/ana- ... ally-want/
 
User avatar
hOMSaR
Moderator
Posts: 2352
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:47 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:17 pm

oldannyboy wrote:
Revelation wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Is it heading to BA?

Don't forget, QR is a shareholder of IAG, surely they can make arrangement for BA to have the 6 QR A380s for a song.

The song will be a wail, because the QR frames have GP7200 and BA runs Trents.


OMG. BA and WW are such huge moaners. I really cannot stand them. I mean, they have operated literally ALL of engine variants for the 747 at one time, plus the 777 has both GE and RR, not to mention the A32s fleet has had CFMs and V25s for centuries....
If the price is right, and if they REALLY want/need A380s they absolutely CAN get these.
I agree it is going to be yet another wail from BA's management.


What are you talking about? What wail from BA’s management?

There won’t be a song, moan, whine, wail, or whimper from BA about these planes because the likelihood of them even considering acquiring them is zero. That’s not wailing. That’s indifference.

The only people complaining about this are here on this thread.
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
musman9853
Posts: 961
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:23 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
QR has over-ordered widebodies, so they have no choice but to keep a tight cycle of deliveries and retirements.
The A380 is falling victim to poor management, once again.

This being said, a 10-year cycle is not bad, considering that their relative young fleet of B777's is already earmarked for replacement by B777X.

These A380's should find a new home, they'll be fine.


I know you love the a380, but realistically it's not looking good for the plane. Who would want a second hand a380? All indications are that airlines don't want it.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
VV
Posts: 1871
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:23 pm

Oh no, not another sterile discussion on the A380.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24657
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:30 pm

VV wrote:
Oh no, not another sterile discussion on the A380.

... one that you could have avoided by not opening the thread, so ...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
superjeff
Posts: 1374
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:14 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:40 pm

Lufthansa wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Lufthansa wrote:

Why? circle them through HKG or somewhere and get the engine maintained there. Thats exactly what QF does with 744s.
Or somewhere in the United States where the engines are made. At one point QF had RR, GE and PW powered 767s onsite.
Both Air NZ and SAA with small 744 fleets had both RR and GE 744s onsite. Cathay
operated both RR 744s and PW powered ones second hand from Singapore. TG operates A330s with both PW and RR engines.

How is maintaining engines for the A380 any different?

You don’t overhaul or mod engines on wing. They are removed and shipped to a vendor, or in-house. You wouldn’t fly a plane to the engine overhaul facility for the engines to be serviced.


Of course they're not! nobody for a second was suggesting they were. They cycle an aircraft through a maintenance base. It's engine is then removed and engines fitted.
That put's the aircraft in the skies again sooner. This is nothing new, United were doing it with the Boeing 707 and the Caraville in the 1960s to get
maintenance times down and keep the aircraft in the sky. That way they're only out of service for the time it takes to remove an engine. QF for example do
all of their A380 work at LAX and cycle them through there for that purpose between passenger schedules. With a smaller fleet it sometimes means a sub of a different
type but usually they manage it fine.


United never flew the 707. They were one of the first DC8 operators, and flew them well into the 1980's. They did fly the 720's, and operated a small fleet of Caravelles in the early 1960's. But you are otherwise correct; airlines can (relatively) easily remove engines and service them; they can be replaced at most stations on an airline systems if necessary. The 747's and 707's/DC8's were even able to carry a fifth engine, to transport an extra one.
 
avek00
Posts: 3254
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:56 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:58 pm

Last February, a few of my fellow #avgeek friends thought I was crazy for predicting airlines will aggressively retire their A380 superjumbo fleets in the mid-2020s. Well, the crazy prediction is winning...
Live life to the fullest.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24657
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:12 pm

avek00 wrote:
Last February, a few of my fellow #avgeek friends thought I was crazy for predicting airlines will aggressively retire their A380 superjumbo fleets in the mid-2020s. Well, the crazy prediction is winning...

I made a similar prediction.

Now it'll be interesting to see if those who sunk money into their fleet before the shutdown was announced (e.g. SQ) will end up retiring them early and writing off the investment in the new interior.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
Slug71
Posts: 1491
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:25 pm

QR never needed them in the first place. It was an ambitious buy (like Etihad), like most of the aircraft (numbers) they have on order. Too many orders and too much capacity.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1343
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:52 pm

musman9853 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
QR has over-ordered widebodies, so they have no choice but to keep a tight cycle of deliveries and retirements.
The A380 is falling victim to poor management, once again.

This being said, a 10-year cycle is not bad, considering that their relative young fleet of B777's is already earmarked for replacement by B777X.

These A380's should find a new home, they'll be fine.


I know you love the a380, but realistically it's not looking good for the plane. Who would want a second hand a380? All indications are that airlines don't want it.


Yes, airlines don't want it, just like airlines didn't want the B757 in the early 2000's.

You need to give a product time to establish itself in a market. Aircraft development programs should be looked at over the span of half a century.

Airlines don't want the A380 today, but things change constantly.

I was at PAS over the past days and you look at all these corporate suits walking around and looking up to the Rafale making its loops like they have never seen a jet fighter in their life.
Then you talk with OEM reps and realise that more than half of them don't know what they're talking about.

You talk with top farts about innovation, most of them talk about the next step in technology, the general concensus is MEA (more electric aircraft) and all see electric propulsion alongside traditional jet propulsion as the future, but you ask them about the how and the benefits and they get stuck because their visions stop at putting several to dozens of electric fans on the wings.

I think that the first platform to implement the MEA concept with a significant economical advantage will be the A380.

The top of Airbus don't know what they're going to have for dinner tonight, let alone do they realise that the A380 is the only viable MEA entry platform because it has something that other aircraft don't have: size.
Size does matter when you need margin, and new technologies need a lot of margin until they are fully optimised.
 
Vladex
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:03 pm

QR is always losing money and they have bigger problems so he is just scapegoating . Benching a380 will not help
 
h1fl1er
Posts: 121
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:58 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:21 pm

I predicted this about and was pilloried for it.

airlines will be accelerating the removal of this failed jet from their inventories. it doesn't work and almost everyone cannot wait to get rid of them, even after as little as 10 years

don't be surprised when there are more 380 operators making the same announcements

the plane is not only too big but it is now ancient technology. nothing bigger than a 789 is presently seeing robust sales
 
Boof02671
Posts: 2199
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:56 pm

superjeff wrote:
Lufthansa wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
You don’t overhaul or mod engines on wing. They are removed and shipped to a vendor, or in-house. You wouldn’t fly a plane to the engine overhaul facility for the engines to be serviced.


Of course they're not! nobody for a second was suggesting they were. They cycle an aircraft through a maintenance base. It's engine is then removed and engines fitted.
That put's the aircraft in the skies again sooner. This is nothing new, United were doing it with the Boeing 707 and the Caraville in the 1960s to get
maintenance times down and keep the aircraft in the sky. That way they're only out of service for the time it takes to remove an engine. QF for example do
all of their A380 work at LAX and cycle them through there for that purpose between passenger schedules. With a smaller fleet it sometimes means a sub of a different
type but usually they manage it fine.


United never flew the 707. They were one of the first DC8 operators, and flew them well into the 1980's. They did fly the 720's, and operated a small fleet of Caravelles in the early 1960's. But you are otherwise correct; airlines can (relatively) easily remove engines and service them; they can be replaced at most stations on an airline systems if necessary. The 747's and 707's/DC8's were even able to carry a fifth engine, to transport an extra one.

Engines cannot be changed at most cities, they lack the tooling and equipment.

It’s always done at hubs or focus cities. That’s why when an unscheduled engine happens at most stations it requires the tooling and equipment and road trip mechanics.
 
User avatar
DrPaul
Posts: 132
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:21 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:01 pm

georgiaame wrote:
Have to wonder if Delta might want to pick up a few. For a song. They are 10 year old used jets, there is a precedent. Just sayin'.


It's a shame that Dan Air aren't still going. With their predilection for flying planes decades after everyone else had sold them off, they'd be flying Whales into the 2050s.
 
9Patch
Posts: 585
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:17 pm

smileymilo wrote:
Simple market evolution will reinvent itself when market conditions allow. Fuel efficiency has nothing to do with longhaul bulk routes. 4 engines are fine with their modern engines its bums on seats.


What on earth are you trying to say?
 
oldannyboy
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:28 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:52 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The song will be a wail, because the QR frames have GP7200 and BA runs Trents.


OMG. BA and WW are such huge moaners. I really cannot stand them. I mean, they have operated literally ALL of engine variants for the 747 at one time, plus the 777 has both GE and RR, not to mention the A32s fleet has had CFMs and V25s for centuries....
If the price is right, and if they REALLY want/need A380s they absolutely CAN get these.
I agree it is going to be yet another wail from BA's management.


What are you talking about? What wail from BA’s management?

There won’t be a song, moan, whine, wail, or whimper from BA about these planes because the likelihood of them even considering acquiring them is zero. That’s not wailing. That’s indifference.

The only people complaining about this are here on this thread.


Well, not quite. BA have been repeating all over the aviation world this *wail* that they would indeed like to buy second hand whalejets "if the effin' price was right".
 
Lufthansa
Posts: 2638
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 6:04 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:56 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
superjeff wrote:
Lufthansa wrote:

Of course they're not! nobody for a second was suggesting they were. They cycle an aircraft through a maintenance base. It's engine is then removed and engines fitted.
That put's the aircraft in the skies again sooner. This is nothing new, United were doing it with the Boeing 707 and the Caraville in the 1960s to get
maintenance times down and keep the aircraft in the sky. That way they're only out of service for the time it takes to remove an engine. QF for example do
all of their A380 work at LAX and cycle them through there for that purpose between passenger schedules. With a smaller fleet it sometimes means a sub of a different
type but usually they manage it fine.


United never flew the 707. They were one of the first DC8 operators, and flew them well into the 1980's. They did fly the 720's, and operated a small fleet of Caravelles in the early 1960's. But you are otherwise correct; airlines can (relatively) easily remove engines and service them; they can be replaced at most stations on an airline systems if necessary. The 747's and 707's/DC8's were even able to carry a fifth engine, to transport an extra one.

Engines cannot be changed at most cities, they lack the tooling and equipment.

It’s always done at hubs or focus cities. That’s why when an unscheduled engine happens at most stations it requires the tooling and equipment and road trip mechanics.


This is kind of beside the point. If the airline doesn't have spares or some kind of access to them in a certain
port well this will happen regardless of the type. It doesn't impact on scheduled maintenance cycling through a
base that can service them.
 
DDR
Posts: 1732
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:09 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:56 pm

I don't see ANY airline taking any retired A380 aircraft. The market is simply not there.
 
User avatar
777Jet
Posts: 6987
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:41 am

Bricktop wrote:
This saddens me. I know all the arguments why, but 10 years is verging on infanticide. And there’s no evidence of an afterlife.


They'll probably have an afterlife as a soda can ;)
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
jupiter2
Posts: 1739
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2001 11:30 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:48 am

oldannyboy wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:

OMG. BA and WW are such huge moaners. I really cannot stand them. I mean, they have operated literally ALL of engine variants for the 747 at one time, plus the 777 has both GE and RR, not to mention the A32s fleet has had CFMs and V25s for centuries....
If the price is right, and if they REALLY want/need A380s they absolutely CAN get these.
I agree it is going to be yet another wail from BA's management.


What are you talking about? What wail from BA’s management?

There won’t be a song, moan, whine, wail, or whimper from BA about these planes because the likelihood of them even considering acquiring them is zero. That’s not wailing. That’s indifference.

The only people complaining about this are here on this thread.


Well, not quite. BA have been repeating all over the aviation world this *wail* that they would indeed like to buy second hand whalejets "if the effin' price was right".


See that's the problem for the "effin" price to be right the price needs to be precisely zero, after the refurbishment has been done.
 
justloveplanes
Posts: 1014
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:38 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:13 am

Why not freighters? FedEx and UPS had them ordered before. Good for low density (flowers) , weird shapes (animals). Not sure what the structure will allow, nor retrofit costs.
 
Boof02671
Posts: 2199
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:47 am

justloveplanes wrote:
Why not freighters? FedEx and UPS had them ordered before. Good for low density (flowers) , weird shapes (animals). Not sure what the structure will allow, nor retrofit costs.

Cause it would require changing all the floor beams and other structures. It wasn’t made to be converted into a freighter
 
PERA346
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:34 am

Qatar regularly uses their limited A388 fleet into the three Australian airports they have limited landing rights for (SYD, MEL, PER). I wonder whether they expect additional rights to increase frequency without drastically lowering capacity? Maybe routes for future 779 without suffering from too much capacity loss?
 
Sokes
Posts: 1893
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:58 pm

Cerecl wrote:
...
Doha Hamad airport is a modern and well run facility, hardly a dumping ground.
...
Incidentally I have my doubts about the viability of the 50 777X's on order. Based on the very unscientific personal experience, their 77W rides to European cities are often half full at best, I seems to me that they need more 787-9/A359 type aircrafts to run these missions.

I recently flew on a B777 from Munich to Doha. It was 1/3 full and I was wondering if freight can make the flight profitable if it's a 300 (not ER). But Wikipedia says Qatar has only 300ER and 200LR. I though of starting a thread with this question, nice you mention it now.
I like Doha's airport. My son played in the play area while I surfed the internet on the computers next to it. I always wondered why nearly all airports are always so boring. To make people do shopping?
Back to topic: It's said nobody wants to buy the (then) 10 year old A380s. But are they already for sale? And why would somebody commit for it now if delivery is in five years?
I would assume that four engined planes with huge range are best used over the Pacific. I know about unfreedom in the sky, still it's strange to use them from the Middle East to Europe. Were the A380s mostly used for capacity reasons to Europe or for longer flights? As Qatar has open sky with Europe now they may want their fleet to adjust to it.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
MD80Ttail
Posts: 170
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:22 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:31 pm

Too bad Tower Air isn’t around.............haha
 
MD80Ttail
Posts: 170
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:22 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:33 pm

DDR wrote:
I don't see ANY airline taking any retired A380 aircraft. The market is simply not there.


Will make nice restaurants and hostels........
 
smartplane
Posts: 1532
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:17 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Wow, gone after 10 years only?
ikramerica wrote:
Amazing that its so unworkable that they have a 10 year life.
Bricktop wrote:
10 years is verging on infanticide.

Why are people acting surprised, when this sorta retirement time frame is par for the course with QR (and other similar airlines for that matter)?

Precisely. QR depreciate ALL new aircraft over 12 years (residual 10-15%), compared to EK over 15 years (residual 5-10%), against most airlines 17-22 years.

May miss the residual, but could be an OEM safety net. Surely they can find a buyer for around USD60-65m to clear the residual and remaining book value, less any OEM assistance, for a low hours / low cycle fleet?

Will GE/EA play fair on engine support? Or assist Boeing/GE sell replacement aircraft by magnifying maintenance costs?
 
AEROFAN
Posts: 1868
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:26 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Amazing that its so unworkable that they have a 10 year life. Then again, QR didn’t need them in the first place.


And yet airline CEOs don't make mistake... What a waste of money purchasing these
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
AEROFAN
Posts: 1868
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:30 pm

h1fl1er wrote:
I predicted this about and was pilloried for it.

airlines will be accelerating the removal of this failed jet from their inventories. it doesn't work and almost everyone cannot wait to get rid of them, even after as little as 10 years

don't be surprised when there are more 380 operators making the same announcements

the plane is not only too big but it is now ancient technology. nothing bigger than a 789 is presently seeing robust sales


I find it hilarious how so many continually post "you must know better than CEO's..." Clearly some of us do :D
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
Strato2
Posts: 558
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:34 pm

jayunited wrote:
Not going to happen ANA never wanted the A380 however they had to take delivery of 3 of them as a result of their acquisition of Skymark Airlines.


This lie has been peddled ad nauseaum on a-net by the usual suspects without anybody being able to provide a shred of evidence and I suspect you cannot either.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24657
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:35 am

smartplane wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Wow, gone after 10 years only?
ikramerica wrote:
Amazing that its so unworkable that they have a 10 year life.
Bricktop wrote:
10 years is verging on infanticide.

Why are people acting surprised, when this sorta retirement time frame is par for the course with QR (and other similar airlines for that matter)?

Precisely. QR depreciate ALL new aircraft over 12 years (residual 10-15%), compared to EK over 15 years (residual 5-10%), against most airlines 17-22 years.

May miss the residual, but could be an OEM safety net. Surely they can find a buyer for around USD60-65m to clear the residual and remaining book value, less any OEM assistance, for a low hours / low cycle fleet?

Will GE/EA play fair on engine support? Or assist Boeing/GE sell replacement aircraft by magnifying maintenance costs?

The "Wow" factor is that these will almost certainly go straight to the breakers after 10 years.

Maybe not so wow because some A340-5/6 did almost the same, but the Whale casts a bigger shadow.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24657
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:56 am

Strato2 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
Not going to happen ANA never wanted the A380 however they had to take delivery of 3 of them as a result of their acquisition of Skymark Airlines.

This lie has been peddled ad nauseaum on a-net by the usual suspects without anybody being able to provide a shred of evidence and I suspect you cannot either.

Here ya go:

The odds began to move in ANA's favor late last month when the company made a promise to Airbus of future aircraft orders, carefully couched so as not to trigger a disclosure requirement, people familiar with the matter said.

It is unclear how many or what model ANA pledged to buy. But a likely choice is the A380 superjumbo jet, which Skymark had planned to fly on international routes before its finances took a turn for the worse. With a catalog price of roughly $430 million, the A380 ranks as Airbus' top-of-the-line model, though it has proven unpopular among international carriers. Airbus has been pitching the double-decker, wide-body jet aggressively.

When a midnight deadline passed without a competing offer of aircraft purchases from Delta, Airbus made its decision. It informed ANA early Wednesday morning that it would vote in favor of the turnaround plan backed by the Japanese carrier. Rolls-Royce and CIT, which had gone along with Airbus so far in Skymark bankruptcy proceedings, followed its lead to the end.

Ref: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Deals/ ... bus-a-deal

A source as rock solid as it comes with regard to business in Japan.

For more than 140 years, Nikkei has been providing unparalleled coverage of Japan's economy, industries and markets. The group's business portfolio includes publishing, broadcasting and the Nikkei 225 stock index. Its flagship newspaper, The Nikkei, has a circulation of approximately 3 million. With 37 global bureaus and over 1,300 journalists, Nikkei is ideally positioned to provide Asian news and analysis to a global audience.. The Financial Times(FT), the global business newspaper, joined the Nikkei group in 2015. As content partners, the Nikkei Asian Review and the FT share select articles with their respective audiences and collaborate editorially on joint projects.

Ref: https://asia.nikkei.com/about

Basically, Japan's equivalent of FT or WSJ.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20349
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:03 am

Revelation wrote:
avek00 wrote:
Last February, a few of my fellow #avgeek friends thought I was crazy for predicting airlines will aggressively retire their A380 superjumbo fleets in the mid-2020s. Well, the crazy prediction is winning...

I made a similar prediction.

Now it'll be interesting to see if those who sunk money into their fleet before the shutdown was announced (e.g. SQ) will end up retiring them early and writing off the investment in the new interior.

Revelation, I recall your prediction. SQ is rationally run. With the current widebody backlogs, I doubt SQ could retire all the A380s quickly enough to write off much of the refit costs.

What will be interesting is QF. I suspect much of the posturing over project sunrise is fleet replacement negotiations.

I personally think QR will retire the A380s a little earlier than this announcement.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1532
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:57 am

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I made a similar prediction.

Now it'll be interesting to see if those who sunk money into their fleet before the shutdown was announced (e.g. SQ) will end up retiring them early and writing off the investment in the new interior.

Revelation, I recall your prediction. SQ is rationally run. With the current widebody backlogs, I doubt SQ could retire all the A380s quickly enough to write off much of the refit costs.

I personally think QR will retire the A380s a little earlier than this announcement.

Lightsaber

Based on previously observed SQ practice with interior refurbishment, costs are written off over 5-7 years, to nil residual value.

QR retirement will be influenced by EA engine maintenance pricing. Some customers only fix for 2 year or 3 year rolling periods (QR 2 years?), so probably fixing Y9-10 now, and already projecting Y11-12.

If you try to sell an A380 with no remaining residual fixed price maintenance contract, it's for scrap, unless selling to an existing operator who fixes for longer, like EK and SQ, and has commercial clout to bring these under their existing contract.
 
beechnut
Posts: 934
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:57 pm

Northwest1988 wrote:
We have seen planes like the DC-8/9/10, MD-80, 737-200’s, 727s and others fly on for years after production ended and they were withdrawn from the major carriers. I get the feeling we won’t be seeing that kind of longevity with the A380... but who knows!


I think the older jets you mention at least had the benefit of huge fleets and thus a healthy spare parts market. The A380 won't have that benefit, I'm afraid. Not as bad as the Concorde, but I doubt Airbus will be willing to offer support for an unlimited number of years to such a small fleet, less than 300 aircraft. Mind you the DC-10 soldiered on for quite a number of years with 446 built and the L1011 with 249, so as you say who knows, but I think the DC-10 and L1011 were more "right-sized" for their markets, i.e. the airlines could fill them and in fact they filled a gap between the early wide body twins and the 747 both on domestic and overseas services.

Beech

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos