User avatar
Taxi645
Topic Author
Posts: 316
Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:29 pm

Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:52 pm

Airbus over the past year has updated it's product line (end of A380, A321XLR, MTOW updates here and there). Also it has been talking about some future developments (further growth of the A220, hints of updates to the A350 etc).

So below an updated list of a possible 2028 product range. As you can see seven models are new or see significant changes (on top of NEO and possible wing changes). That said, six of those seven are actually simple stretches, which makes the total R&D investment a lot easier to stomach.


A220


Already state of the art. Further engines PIP’s, simple stretch to the 500 and a very significant increase of production to 30+ per month in order to free up backlog for more capable variants of the A320 series. Further production sites in Europe and/or Asia.


A320

Small simple stretch of the A320. Also simple stretch based on the A321XLR (A322). Further engine PIP’s and possibly composite wing keeps it up to date. Increased production of the A220 along with the A220-500 will take some of the possible A320 backlog, creating room for the more capable family members so production rate doesn’t need to be increased to insensible amounts.


A360


This will be Airbus next clean sheet design and a replacement for the 767/A330. Spacious 8-abreast, 5.5m wide, LD3 capable. Will have very low induced drag due to very low spanwise loading due to state of the art very high AR wing. Competes with NMA, will have a small CSAM penalty but will be a far more capable and thus flexible plane. Similar scenario as with the A330 vs. the 767.


A350


Will be upgraded with ultrafan engines. The 1000 will shortened slightly and switch to the 900 MTOW and thus become a simple stretch. Due to the lower SFC of the ultrafan range will still easily exceed 7.500Nm and CASM will be extremely low. Above the slightly shortened 1000 a simple stretch 1100 will be added based on the current 319t MTOW. This will be Airbus largest and most capable model. The A350 will be vulnerable to the 787 becoming more capable with future SFC improvements, but that's not something that's easy or cheap to engineer out of an existing airframe.


Don't be too harsh on seat count or range numbers, I didn't put too much effort into calculating them. Otherwise feel free to shoot holes left and right. What do you think, a realistic and good strategy for Airbus or should they do something completely different?


Image
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
User avatar
American 767
Posts: 4396
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 7:27 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:34 pm

Nice comprehensive list of present and future Airbus models. The A320 line will continue to exist, yes, with the A321NEO having a huge success with the airlines. But I would be more specific: for sure the A320OEO of all variants will be out of production before that time, and I doubt that the A319NEO will sell well because it may have a higher CASM compared to the 320NEO and 321NEO. That's the negative feature the 737-600 and the A318 have: high CASM. So I think that by 2028, it will be the A320NEO and the A321NEO/LR/XLR that will still be in production. And yes, the other narrowbody at Airbus, the A220 also has a future ahead. I see the current A318 and 737-600 operators replacing those aircraft with the A220.
Ben Soriano
 
mwhcvt
Posts: 988
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 2:01 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:41 pm

2028 is only 9 years into the future I’m not sure I see quite so much product development ahead in that time span, I still remain unconvinced there’s going to be the desire to overlap the A220 and A320 families too much it would be different if they had the same type rating but that’s just not going to happen as it would effectively mean re-engineering the A220 to integrate the A320 cockpit controls/systems into the frame

Additionally I’m not sure there’s enough of a market for the A220 in Asia to warrant a FAL in Asia, when we look at Asia smaller aircraft are the rarity not the standard, most airlines concentrate on 320/738 sized aircraft for their regional work, don’t forget the new soon to open mobile FAL was purely in response to the tariff threat had that not happened I very much doubt the FAL would have been built, it wouldn’t surprise me if in the future this line is migrated over to either the A320 to compliment exiting production or even another Airbus project maybe even Airbus Helicopters I was reading recently they are bidding on a large DOD helicopter contract

When it comes to the A220 production the aim should be to just get the Canadian fall up to viable production levels before looking to complicate things further, there going to be no profit in the product if you spread small production sites all over the place
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1069
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:47 pm

I generally agree with your outlook. This Airbus is a much stronger competitor than the one hobbled by the A380 imho. Boeing needs to get their act together.
 
chiad
Posts: 1193
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:26 pm

I think by 2028, as the A320NEO has been in service for12 years, we will see another engine upgrade and a backlog building up. EIS 2028 - 2030.
 
morrisond
Posts: 1179
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:36 pm

I think a lot better path for Airbus would be to do a cleansheet Ovalish 7W fuselage to replace both A320 and A330 series with two different wings/wingboxes/gear/tails/engines (smaller less capable ones for A320 replacement around 3,000NM in range and bigger more capable ones for A330 replacement with about 5,500NM in range) and an A350 based cockpit. Mix and match Fuselage wings to get different ranges and single class Capacity from about 200-320 seats.

Then do a 220-500 (180 seats single class) with a new A350 based Cockpit as well. Then port the cockpit to A220-100/300. They then have a nice 5W, 7W, 9W lineup all with common Cockpit/Type rating.

Eventually stretch the A351 into a -12 when it's time to re-engine the A350 with Ultrafan.

Produce the A320/A321NEO as long as there are takers and you ramp up 7W production.

The 320/330 series need to be replaced with something a lot easier to manufacture to keep pace with where Boeing is likely to go.
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 542
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:44 pm

chiad wrote:
I think by 2028, as the A320NEO has been in service for12 years, we will see another engine upgrade and a backlog building up. EIS 2028 - 2030.


Quite possible indeed. And if so, expect a slight size increase - let's call it an A320.5...

Oh wait, that would then leave some room to market an A220-500 (simple stretch, trading range for seats) with unbeatable CASMs!!

(ok, old discussion here)
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13045
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:04 pm

Wouldn't there be A330 NEO's using the higher MTOW like a A339F and A330 NEO MRTT? I can see A330 being produced for/ in China until they have a C929 ready..

An inbetween aircraft of passenger capacity similar to A300/A310 could also by a narrower body, to save weight and ease production. 1.5 Aisle might create speed and flexibility, without creating much extra OEW compared to a bigger twin aisle. Because of the lenght it could move a lot of standard AKH containers/pallets.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Babyshark
Posts: 171
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:12 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
.


A220


Already state of the art. Further engines PIP’s, simple stretch to the 500 and a very significant increase of production to 30+ per month in order to free up backlog for more capable variants of the A320 series. Further production sites in Europe and/or Asia.




The A220 is not state of the art. Its glitchy with QC issues. We will be lucky if the engines don't shut the operation of it down for a while.

It's also not an Airbus. That cockpit has no commonality and doesnt have many basic functions of an airliner operating in an airline world.

Some around here seem to think the perfect solution is the 225, scrap the 320 and have Airbus offer 220 and 321.

That's ignorant.

Its ignorant to the reality of airline operations and Airbus philosophy. They would go from saying here is industry leading commonality within our product range and let's change it completely and use a soiled 2005 design with no commonality going forward.

Faury said in January, "Yes, there is competition between the two products, but in some cases the A319 still has superiority." And that's just the 319, airlines have left that to go back to 320Ns as that product is now a superior offering all things considered including performance which was why the 319 existed.

To date 4000+ orders for the A320N, 6500 with 321 combined.

A220... 500? Maybe? A225... 0. 0 orders. It doesnt exist.

/rant on CSeries obsession
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1069
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:47 pm

Babyshark wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
.


A220


Already state of the art. Further engines PIP’s, simple stretch to the 500 and a very significant increase of production to 30+ per month in order to free up backlog for more capable variants of the A320 series. Further production sites in Europe and/or Asia.




The A220 is not state of the art. Its glitchy with QC issues. We will be lucky if the engines don't shut the operation of it down for a while.

It's also not an Airbus. That cockpit has no commonality and doesnt have many basic functions of an airliner operating in an airline world.

Some around here seem to think the perfect solution is the 225, scrap the 320 and have Airbus offer 220 and 321.

That's ignorant.

Its ignorant to the reality of airline operations and Airbus philosophy. They would go from saying here is industry leading commonality within our product range and let's change it completely and use a soiled 2005 design with no commonality going forward.

Faury said in January, "Yes, there is competition between the two products, but in some cases the A319 still has superiority." And that's just the 319, airlines have left that to go back to 320Ns as that product is now a superior offering all things considered including performance which was why the 319 existed.

To date 4000+ orders for the A320N, 6500 with 321 combined.

A220... 500? Maybe? A225... 0. 0 orders. It doesnt exist.

/rant on CSeries obsession


Your rant ignores the rumored A320.5. Such a plane, when paired with the A220-500 and the A321 XLR seems possible to me. It fills the gap. The low fuel consumption of the GTF totally changes the mission profile of the 320 imho and makes it more 319ish, ie, too big and too heavy for 149 seat markets. Thus, the 220-500.

Agree that the lack of cockpit commonlity between the 220 and 320 is a problem. But its not a huge problem when talking fleets of 100 or more airplanes. Delta, for example, seems less interested in commonality and more interested in the right size for the right market, capacity discipline, and not having too much plane for the market. Faury's comments ref the 319.....well, the market disagrees apparently. What % of the 320 series backlog is for the 319?

Can you please expound on what basic functionality ithe 220 is lacking vis a vis other airplanes? Does it not also have some functionality that the others do not? It is a business jet based hardware and software cockpit after all, is it not?

Your comments like "soiled," lead me to believe that you are not unbiased. You seem like someone who likes the 320 series and doesn't want to have to re-train as you go up the senority list to hold Captain.

And finally, which series has been most affected by the lack of engine production and by in-service engine problems, the 220 or the 320? The slow ramp up by Bombardier Canada has helped PW keep up with production it would seem, while 320 gliders have been sitting off and on for the last 2 years awaiting engines. And GTF engine reliability has been constantly increasing.
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 542
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:50 pm

Babyshark wrote:
Its glitchy with QC issues. We will be lucky if the engines don't shut the operation of it down for a while + Cockpit doesnt have many basic functions of an airliner operating in an airline world


Can you elaborate on those QC issues?
Those we heard mostly related to the cabin. Airbus is currently addressing (including via a new pre-FAL) those suppliers issues that indeed affect the main FAL productivity.
About the engines: all we know is they are definitely performing better than those (GTF) on the NEOs.
And finally which basic functions are missing in the cockpit, a MCAS maybe ;-) ???
Last edited by ExMilitaryEng on Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:05 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1487
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:00 pm

Consider me skeptical that there will even be an A360 in 2028 much less one being built at 15 planes per month.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 20960
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:15 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Your rant ignores the rumored A320.5. Such a plane, when paired with the A220-500 and the A321 XLR seems possible to me. It fills the gap. The low fuel consumption of the GTF totally changes the mission profile of the 320 imho and makes it more 319ish, ie, too big and too heavy for 149 seat markets. Thus, the 220-500.

I have a hard time seeing Airbus spending money developing A320.5 and A220-500 just to compete with... Airbus.

They are better off spending their money getting CSALP to the point where they can build A220s profitably, and saving the rest for the big check they will need to cut to buy BBD out of the program.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13045
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:23 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
Consider me skeptical that there will even be an A360 in 2028 much less one being built at 15 planes per month.


Agree, it should be in final concept definition clise to launch. That isn't happening as far as I know ;)

On a A320.5, I ve been pushing that since 2007 :old: Years later I found out a simple stretch (without a serious payload-range hit) of the A320 isn't that easy, the A320 is pretty lean optimized.

Image

The gap inbetween A320 and A321 fuselage is unusual large; 7.5 meters / 42 seats. Something inbetween to replace aging A320s, optimized for 199 seats / 4 cabin crew seems a no brainer. As far as I know, Airbus' A320 Plus was a 2m / 2 row stretch.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
neromancer
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:23 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:28 pm

morrisond wrote:
Then do a 220-500 (180 seats single class) with a new A350 based Cockpit as well. Then port the cockpit to A220-100/300. They then have a nice 5W, 7W, 9W lineup all with common Cockpit/Type rating.


Some of the biggest compliments I hear about the A220 is the cockpit. Perhaps Airbus might want to consider adjusting some of their future designs to be more in common with the A220 cockpit?
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6471
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:40 pm

An awful lot of stretches here, plus an all-new frame serving a very small market.

My answer is more boring. I think the Airbus range of 2028 will look like today's, except possibly for the following:

A322 - A real possibility IMO. This would be a ~3200 nm frame based on the A321XLR with probably a 3- to 4-row stretch.
A320.5 - Mmmmmaybe. I don't think Airbus is having any trouble selling A320neos at the existing length, so I'm not sure the ROI is there for a stretch.
A220-500 - Mmmmmaybe. I think it's more likely that Airbus will still be production constrained on the A220 and can sell every A220 it can build with just the -300 in the lineup. (I don't think the -100 will survive for long.)
A350 Ultrafan - Will be announced but not yet in service by then. I suspect there will be a small stretch of the -1000, which will put the 777-9 out of business. I'm not as convinced about the -900 stretch. The -900 is already big for a midsize widebody and I'm not sure operators can keep using it as such if it gets bigger. I think it's more likely that we see something at the current -1000 length with the -900 wing and gear.
A330 size range - I feel genuinely unsure if the A330neo will keep generating sales until then. But if it's not dead already the A350 Ultrafan announcement will kill it. And if Boeing already has a MOM I don't see the ROI for Airbus to spend billions developing an all-new aircraft to replace it.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13045
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:46 pm

neromancer wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Then do a 220-500 (180 seats single class) with a new A350 based Cockpit as well. Then port the cockpit to A220-100/300. They then have a nice 5W, 7W, 9W lineup all with common Cockpit/Type rating.


Some of the biggest compliments I hear about the A220 is the cockpit. Perhaps Airbus might want to consider adjusting some of their future designs to be more in common with the A220 cockpit?


Changing the cockpit to an Airbus cockpit could take 2 years. Airbus would partly miss out on the huge 737-700 / A319 replacement market. And for e.g. SouthWest cockpit commonality doesn't play a role.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Sokes
Posts: 174
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:37 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
A360
This will be Airbus next clean sheet design and a replacement for the 767/A330. Spacious 8-abreast, 5.5m wide, LD3 capable. Will have very low induced drag due to very low spanwise loading due to state of the art very high AR wing. Competes with NMA, will have a small CSAM penalty but will be a far more capable and thus flexible plane. Similar scenario as with the A330 vs. the 767.


Do you mean an A360 with similar wing length, but less wing area than A330?
The fuselage sounds pretty much the same as A330. Why not only change the wings and engines?
I suppose if Rolls Royce hadn't lost 4,4 billion Pounds in gambling with derivates with the consequential job losses, the A330 Neo may do o.k. without any changes.
https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press ... sults.aspx
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... tm-449456/
One has to see how the engines will perform and if the industry gains trust in the A330 Neo.

I think Boeing is right to focus on ease of production more than on new models. If Airbus manages to ease mass production of carbon fiber parts, the A220 becomes valuable.
I think Airbus should do this themselves and not rely on suppliers. When thanks to high subsidies a solar industry came up in Germany cell manufacturers cooperated with machine makers. That cooperation was the end of German cell manufacturers and the rise of Chinese manufacturers.

That apart the 2028 models will depend on how fast engine manufacturers can solve their pending work. That's the same for Airbus as well as for Boeing.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Armadillo1
Posts: 409
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:53 pm

any rumors about cabin humidity and ceiling for nb?
 
Armadillo1
Posts: 409
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:38 pm

also i think a300 cross section inferior to 787.
so, take close to 787 or to lesser 767+-style and ld3/45
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 271
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:05 pm

Aren't we forgetting all the helikopters Airbus is producing!?
Besides A220 and ATR are 50.01% & 50% owned by Airbus.
Thus I think we should include the ATR's here.

I think the production rate expectations are very high. Only the A320 rate 70 and A350 rate 10 are realistic. The combination A220 rate 30 and A320 rate 70 are not realistic, considering market demand. Though I expect the currenty planned FAL network can sustain this. But sub-assembly factories can NOT.
With these A220 & A320 rates you're talking about 80-100 CFM LEAP and 100-120 P&W GTF engines each month. I expect this to be unrealistic. Thus requiring a RR narrow body GTF engine offering. AFAIK that's not even considered.

The A220-500 would be a risky move to take, because it will push Airbus narrowbody share past 60%. It would be required for A220 rate 30. But this would trigger Boeing to launch NSA. I doubt Airbus is willing to do that.

I expect the A330NEO will still be in production. I think it can sustain rate 4-6. Possibly a D-gate sized wing (180-200mT MTOW) is developed for the A330NEO to replace A300 and early A330-200.
The combo of A330NEO E(250mT) and D(200mT) could possibly require rate 10-15.
But at rate 15 the narrowbody demand will shrink.
I expect some developments on the regional aircraft front. Likely a ATR -700series (also C2x5) without USA content. And a slim possibility for a Airbus Canada regional product 50-100 seats as well.
I don't expect A350 changes jet.
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 271
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:10 pm

An A320.5 I only see happening as response to a Boeing NSA.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13045
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:30 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
An A320.5 I only see happening as response to a Boeing NSA.


Maybe if Easyjet, AF/KL, BA and LH say they need a 200 seat A320 replacement to hop around Europe.
But not not the 101t, 235 seat, 4700NM, premium priced one.
Nor the same A320 they bought 30 years ago with micro lavatories
And it has to fit in their AKH luggage & cargo infrastructure.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 271
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:33 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
also i think a300 cross section inferior to 787.
so, take close to 787 or to lesser 767+-style and ld3/45

AFAIK 2-4-2 is a very comfortable long range economy arrangement. Far superior to the 3-3-3 seating. It's only having to pass at most one passenger to enter the aisle. Why this is more comfortable in Y.
Also for cargo the A300/A330/A340 cross section is very efficient. Most TATL route require freight.
Especially since the no-night flight and slot restraints in Europe.
There is a reason the A300F was popular and the A330P2F is gaining interest.
The demand for early A330's is a reason to be cautious with an M-segment twin Aisle. But I think A300 and A330s show that Airbus has the right cross section.
I think the A350XWB should have been able to seat 3-4-3 in 17"+ seats, something Airbus is currently working on. An A330-1000 (A340-500 length) could have been popular. It's not the first time I write that the original A350 might have been beter than the A350XWB on the long run.
The A380 production ending and Brexit could have some interesting consequences for Airbus. But Brexit blocks all more serious product improvements for Airbus. The A321ACF/LR followed by A321XLR was all that was possible with the Brexit uncertainties.
Besides A320, A350, A220 ramp up and A330CEO => NEO (as well as A320NEO).
But behind the scenes not very secretly there are interesting developments.
I think the ATR 700series is very certain. What do you think about a Do328(jet) family architecture?
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 271
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:53 pm

keesje wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
An A320.5 I only see happening as response to a Boeing NSA.


Maybe if Easyjet, AF/KL, BA and LH say they need a 200 seat A320 replacement to hop around Europe.
But not not the 101t, 235 seat, 4700NM, premium priced one.
Nor the same A320 they bought 30 years ago with micro lavatories
And it has to fit in their AKH luggage & cargo infrastructure.

AFAIK the AKH lugage/cargo structure makes the development of a A320.5 so complicated.
An ordinary configured all economy 31"pitch A320 seats 180 pax in non Cabin Flex rear config. The A321 seats 220pax. But there is a three AKH container difference, they want to stretch with container increments. But 4-CWB-4 doesn't allow 200 pax @ 31" non Cabin-Flex.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13045
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:13 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
keesje wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
An A320.5 I only see happening as response to a Boeing NSA.


Maybe if Easyjet, AF/KL, BA and LH say they need a 200 seat A320 replacement to hop around Europe.
But not not the 101t, 235 seat, 4700NM, premium priced one.
Nor the same A320 they bought 30 years ago with micro lavatories
And it has to fit in their AKH luggage & cargo infrastructure.

AFAIK the AKH lugage/cargo structure makes the development of a A320.5 so complicated.
An ordinary configured all economy 31"pitch A320 seats 180 pax in non Cabin Flex rear config. The A321 seats 220pax. But there is a three AKH container difference, they want to stretch with container increments. But 4-CWB-4 doesn't allow 200 pax @ 31" non Cabin-Flex.


Yes, that would be in the details. I don't know how much they heavier LEAP/GTF influenced CoG, that might influence where and how long the plugs would be. They might add up to 2, 3 or 4m. Maybe they would consider the new XLR fuel tank configuration, if it is real light weight & space creating, (rest) value effective thing. Or the XLR lighter, better flaps. It could be become a hybrid A32o - XLR using some improvements coming out of the XLR project. They might even replace the 68000 for Rev, maybe he & his friends have some 386s laying around.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8521
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:28 pm

How about mostly nothing.

The A322 is the most realistic option.

The rest will be spent getting the A350 production into competitive territory and reduce production costs. Mostly the same for the A320 series.

A220 will linger on, same as the A330.

Boeing and Airbus never had a more up-to-date line-up than today. Both need to earn money for some time now before starting new projects.Add a difficult global economy and increasing taxes on CO2 and flying, and both will be focussed on being as efficient as possible in production, before CO2 regulation will force them to do new designs with emerging technologies like hybrids, open rotors or or maybe even hydorgen powered planes.
 
User avatar
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1876
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:53 pm

My vision of Airbus lineup in 2028:
- A220-100
- A220-300
- A220-500 - simple stretch of -300, 160 standard two class capacity
- A320+ - stretched A320 with new wing and engines, 190 standard two class capacity
- A321+ - stretched A321 with same wing as A320+, 220 standard two class capacity
- A322+ - A321+ with 4500nm range - optimised wing from A321+ with tip and root extensions, 250 standard two class capacity
- A330-900neo
- A350-900neo
- A350-1000neo
Tarriffs are taxes. Taxation is theft. You are not entitled to anything.
If it's a Boeing, I'm not going.
 
Sokes
Posts: 174
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:53 pm

seahawk wrote:
How about mostly nothing.

Few changes and no clean sheet model sounds likely.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Absynth
Posts: 82
Joined: Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:32 pm

To the OP, I am with you regarding the specs for the 322 and 360, although the 360 fuselage might be slightly less wide, going towards 5m40. Interior cabin width will be around 5m10.

I can see the Airbus roadmap go as follows:

2023 A321XLR
2027 A322 with new wings, new engine, new cockpit
2028 A350 NEO
2029 new 320 and 321 with same upgraded wings, engine, cockpit
2031 A360
2035 A370 11ab, 80m long, ~500pax ready for the A380 replacement cycle and fat routes where the 777x becomes too small (yes one can dream)
 
Absynth
Posts: 82
Joined: Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:15 pm

morrisond wrote:
I think a lot better path for Airbus would be to do a cleansheet Ovalish 7W fuselage to replace both A320 and A330 series with two different wings/wingboxes/gear/tails/engines (smaller less capable ones for A320 replacement around 3,000NM in range and bigger more capable ones for A330 replacement with about 5,500NM in range) and an A350 based cockpit. Mix and match Fuselage wings to get different ranges and single class Capacity from about 200-320 seats.

The 320/330 series need to be replaced with something a lot easier to manufacture to keep pace with where Boeing is likely to go.


7W will never happen at Airbus, it's the most inefficient cabin type there is. Using that for your main product is suicide. As for Boeing, all bets are off.

Same goes for the oval shape, it's the worst possible shape for construction.

I've never seen anyone succesfully explain why you'd want oval or 7W for your mainliner.
Last edited by Absynth on Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Armadillo1
Posts: 409
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:19 pm

What do you think about a Do328(jet) family architecture?
i think even 100 seater going to be prop
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 271
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:47 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
What do you think about a Do328(jet) family architecture?
i think even 100 seater going to be prop

The Dornier 328 has two turboprop engines. The Do328 JET has two turbofans. The plane was both available as regional turboprop and as regional jet. This is for ATR.

About the A320.5 would a shring of the A321ACF/LR or A321XLR be the best option?
For the new A32x line up I was thinking about 6U


So I would say Airbus lineup would span:
- Helicopters H120 (2mT 5/6 pax) to H2?? (11mT X6)
- Military C235 & C295 (replacement ?), A400M, A330MRTT, ?A320 military?
- ATR (Airbus & Leonardo & ???) 30 - 100 pax regional turboprop (& regional jet).
- Airbus Canada A220 two or three length versions. (6AB ULCC seating arrangement?)
- Airbus Aircraft: A320NEO, A321ACF & XLR, A338, A339 (possibly A335 & A336), A359, A35K
(Possibly A350NEO and second stretch)

The main challenges are:
- getting the A220 production and demand running. Rate 15 - 30
- getting A320 production and demand matching. Rate 65 - 75
- Repurposing A380 facilities effectively.
- Getting higher widebody market share.
- Resolve concequences of Brexit and USA trade pollecies. (Iran)

Possible treats: Boeing NSA, requiring a A320 improvement. CR929 reducing A330NEO demand.
 
Sokes
Posts: 174
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:34 am

Absynth wrote:

I can see the Airbus roadmap go as follows:
...
2027 A322 with new wings, new engine, new cockpit
...

Right, I forgot about new wing/ engine for the A320/ A321.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
User avatar
kitplane01
Posts: 1338
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:44 am

seabosdca wrote:
A220-500 - Mmmmmaybe. I think it's more likely that Airbus will still be production constrained on the A220 and can sell every A220 it can build with just the -300 in the lineup. (I don't think the -100 will survive for long.)


Why would Airbus be production constrained 9 years in the future? I would think that with that lead time Airbus could produce any number it chose. If a rate increase is profitable ... Airbus will have both plenty of time and money to do so.
 
User avatar
kitplane01
Posts: 1338
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:47 am

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Armadillo1 wrote:
also i think a300 cross section inferior to 787.
so, take close to 787 or to lesser 767+-style and ld3/45

AFAIK 2-4-2 is a very comfortable long range economy arrangement. Far superior to the 3-3-3 seating. It's only having to pass at most one passenger to enter the aisle.


I don't believe airliners will spend money to get the more comfortable 2-4-2. Therefore Airbus will see no extra value ($$$) in 2-4-2. Therefore they will do what is most efficient.

Maybe Airbus will actually do 2-4-2, but only if that comes at zero cost, since that's the extra amount airliners will pay.
 
YIMBY
Posts: 598
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:32 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:50 am

Sokes wrote:
seahawk wrote:
How about mostly nothing.

Few changes and no clean sheet model sounds likely.


I am afraid that you are right. They will go for the McDonnell-Douglas strategy: stretches, shrinks and tweaks. They will, however, make much more gradual, evolutionary, hardly visible improvements here and there.

The most likely stretch will be A220-500: should be kept light as 320 is getting to be overranged (overheavy) for most purposes

I do not expect 320 stretch unless it would solve balance or production issues, maybe related to a new wing. A322 is possible. A new wing is possible. Not too likely, however.

A350 may see another stretch and new engines.

Less likely is a new version of 330, namely 330 Lite, with a new, lighter wing and other costly diet. And that is more likely than a clean-sheet A360 in that territory, although a viable shrink is so expensive and laborious that A330Lite may be nominated A360. A third, also unlikely possibility is A350 Lite.

The only new clean-sheet aircraft that I can envision is a larger prop in 100+ pax capacity. Even that may not be full Airbus.
 
User avatar
kitplane01
Posts: 1338
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:52 am

Taxi645 wrote:
A360

This will be Airbus next clean sheet design and a replacement for the 767/A330. Spacious 8-abreast, 5.5m wide, LD3 capable. Will have very low induced drag due to very low spanwise loading due to state of the art very high AR wing. Competes with NMA, will have a small CSAM penalty but will be a far more capable and thus flexible plane. Similar scenario as with the A330 vs. the 767.


Boeing has been examining the range of possible aircraft between the A321 and the A330. They seem unable (or barely able) to make a business case for one new model. Given this, how can there be a business case for two models in this product range?

If Boeing's analysis is even close to correct, there is no way there is room for two new models between the A321 and the A330.

Producing the A322 would reduce the amount of aircraft sold in the range even more, and cost Airbus much less to design.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8521
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:57 am

YIMBY wrote:
Sokes wrote:
seahawk wrote:
How about mostly nothing.

Few changes and no clean sheet model sounds likely.


I am afraid that you are right. They will go for the McDonnell-Douglas strategy: stretches, shrinks and tweaks. They will, however, make much more gradual, evolutionary, hardly visible improvements here and there.

The most likely stretch will be A220-500: should be kept light as 320 is getting to be overranged (overheavy) for most purposes

I do not expect 320 stretch unless it would solve balance or production issues, maybe related to a new wing. A322 is possible. A new wing is possible. Not too likely, however.

A350 may see another stretch and new engines.

Less likely is a new version of 330, namely 330 Lite, with a new, lighter wing and other costly diet. And that is more likely than a clean-sheet A360 in that territory, although a viable shrink is so expensive and laborious that A330Lite may be nominated A360. A third, also unlikely possibility is A350 Lite.

The only new clean-sheet aircraft that I can envision is a larger prop in 100+ pax capacity. Even that may not be full Airbus.


Imho the current product are quite up-to-date but then challengers of the future might need a more radical and very different approach to aircraft design. So it makes little sense to do a conservative design an the moment. At about 2025-2028 there will be clear targets on emission reduction, taxation of CO2 and with luck the economy will be coming out of crisis at that time after the coming down turn. This is when to start new designs.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13045
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:01 am

Innitiation of :
- A220-500 (tons lighter than the ailing 737-7/A319s)
- A320 Plus (a few rows more than 737-8)
- A322 NEO (250 seats, ~4000NM, simple stretch, A321 XLR MTOW)
would trigger Boeing responds.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
reidar76
Posts: 448
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 5:16 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:19 am

Here is my list of what Airbus will do the coming decade.

Business development:
- Acquire Bombardiers Belfast facility
- Take over the entire A220 program
- Increase to a majority, controlling share of ATR. Up from today's 50 %. Airbus will handle ATR sales and reporting.

Aircraft development
- Clean sheet: Extremely lightweight, regional propeller aircraft. Electric engines and propulsion to address industry sustainability in a changing world.
- Clean sheet: Joint EU fighter program
- Simple stretch of the A321XLR, creating the A322 (between 24-30 extra seats, reduced range)
- Possible PW GTF 2.0 with composite fan blades and new combustor for both the A220 and A320 families.
- A350neo with Rolls-Royce Ultrafan
- Possible simple stretch of the A220-300, creating the A220-400 (20 to 25 extra seats)
- Development of an A330neo freighter

Innovations before 2030:
- First commercial flight with one human pilot and one AI-autopilot
- Urban passengers aircraft
- Much more 3D-printing of parts in house, reducing dependency on external suppliers
- New FALs with lots of automation for an even more streamlined production system
- Extensive (under the hood) upgrades to the A320 family making the aircraft family more electric
- The wing of tomorrow project, including flapping wings.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8521
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:19 am

A322 maybe not, but A320+ would surely trigger a new single aisle from Boeing. I am not convinced that Airbus wants this to happen at the moment.
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:14 am

Taxi645 wrote:
Airbus over the past year has updated it's product line (end of A380, A321XLR, MTOW updates here and there). Also it has been talking about some future developments (further growth of the A220, hints of updates to the A350 etc).

So below an updated list of a possible 2028 product range. As you can see seven models are new or see significant changes (on top of NEO and possible wing changes). That said, six of those seven are actually simple stretches, which makes the total R&D investment a lot easier to stomach.


A220


Already state of the art. Further engines PIP’s, simple stretch to the 500 and a very significant increase of production to 30+ per month in order to free up backlog for more capable variants of the A320 series. Further production sites in Europe and/or Asia.


A320

Small simple stretch of the A320. Also simple stretch based on the A321XLR (A322). Further engine PIP’s and possibly composite wing keeps it up to date. Increased production of the A220 along with the A220-500 will take some of the possible A320 backlog, creating room for the more capable family members so production rate doesn’t need to be increased to insensible amounts.


A360


This will be Airbus next clean sheet design and a replacement for the 767/A330. Spacious 8-abreast, 5.5m wide, LD3 capable. Will have very low induced drag due to very low spanwise loading due to state of the art very high AR wing. Competes with NMA, will have a small CSAM penalty but will be a far more capable and thus flexible plane. Similar scenario as with the A330 vs. the 767.


A350


Will be upgraded with ultrafan engines. The 1000 will shortened slightly and switch to the 900 MTOW and thus become a simple stretch. Due to the lower SFC of the ultrafan range will still easily exceed 7.500Nm and CASM will be extremely low. Above the slightly shortened 1000 a simple stretch 1100 will be added based on the current 319t MTOW. This will be Airbus largest and most capable model. The A350 will be vulnerable to the 787 becoming more capable with future SFC improvements, but that's not something that's easy or cheap to engineer out of an existing airframe.


Don't be too harsh on seat count or range numbers, I didn't put too much effort into calculating them. Otherwise feel free to shoot holes left and right. What do you think, a realistic and good strategy for Airbus or should they do something completely different?


Image


I don't agree with your vision of the A360.

Airbus and Boeing essentially operate as a Monopolistic Duopoly, at least with respect to widebodies. They differentiate their products from each other and try to avoid contesting the same market segment. Even in the narrowbodies there isn't too much overlap; the A320 is smaller than the 737-8, and the A321neo has much more range than the 737-10. The A220 has no Boeing competition (even the E-Jets are smaller).

Boeing's next move after fixing the 737 Max will be the MoM (a 7-abreast 767 replacement). Airbus already have an offering in the lowest end of that segment (the A321neoLR/XLR), and I don't think they'll be interested in developing a small widebody in that segment. A321neoLR/XLR used at higher frequency, or A330-900s at lower frequencies, will be enough and an Airbus MoM widebody would cause cannibalization and have a direct competitor.

Rather, I think Airbus will target the Dreamliner segment with their next widebody jet. Why? Because it can replace the A330neo as well, and the Dreamliner will be the eldest of the new-generation jets (which I'm defining as A220, 787 and A350).

Three models... one 245 pax (787-8/a330-200 size), one 285 pax (a330-300/787-9 size), and one 325 pax (787-10/A350-900 size). 8 abreast Economy with A220-grade seating dimensions, 7-abreast Premium Economy, and 1-2-1 Business. Ranges should be slightly more than the equivalent 787 models but with dramatically lower CASM.

Boeing will be occupied with the 777X and 797 programs (the latter of which will eventually replace the A330 family on medium-haul flights), as well as designing a replacement for the 737. Meanwhile Airbus will have enough market coverage in the MoM with the A321neoLR/XLR and A330-900, and will have a dominant position in the larger-widebody market with the A350 family. Making a jet in the medium-size-longer-range widebody segment will avoid cannibalizing A350 and A321 demand, replace the eldest Airbus widebody on offer, and take on what will be (at that time) Boeing's oldest widebody program through offering substantially greater comfort and economics.

That's where I disagree with you. I do agree, however, an A220-500 is highly likely (and a future A220neo program is plausible).

But after, or alongside, the hypothetical A360 above, we should see a new clean-sheet replacement for the A320 series. I'm thinking we'll see something like target sizes of 174 (737-8 size), 198 (787-10/A321 size), and 222 (A321neoACF and 757-200 size) passengers, with the A220 handling the smaller routes.

[To digress... when Airbus is doing the A360 program, and after Boeing has launched the 797, I expect Boeing to not just work on a 737 replacement of their own (along similar lines to Airbus) but also to start work on a replacement for the 777/777X and A350). A monopolistic duopoly in the widebody world will trade market segments back and forth].
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 3759
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:36 am

reidar76 wrote:
Innovations before 2030:
- The wing of tomorrow project, including flapping wings.

It already flew.....
Image
.... as a model ;-)

Amazing video: one flight with "stiff" wings and another one with flapping wings:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTfWlOU6Lic

There was a press release by Airbus several weeks ago and I even wanted to start a thread about it...
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8521
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:40 am

Thanks for the link to the video. Wonderful to see.
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 3759
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:28 am

seahawk wrote:
Thanks for the link to the video. Wonderful to see.

You are welcome. I was surprised that nobody started a thread about these tests.

Talking about innovations that might become part of Airbus' products, any update on the BLADE Project?
 
Sokes
Posts: 174
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:19 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
Airbus and Boeing essentially operate as a Monopolistic Duopoly, at least with respect to widebodies. They differentiate their products from each other and try to avoid contesting the same market segment. Even in the narrowbodies there isn't too much overlap; the A320 is smaller than the 737-8, and the A321neo has much more range than the 737-10. The A220 has no Boeing competition (even the E-Jets are smaller).

Your first sentence is wonderful. I saw it, but never so clear.

StudiodeKadent wrote:
Rather, I think Airbus will target the Dreamliner segment with their next widebody jet. Why? Because it can replace the A330neo as well, and the Dreamliner will be the eldest of the new-generation jets (which I'm defining as A220, 787 and A350).

I think even after the A380 is discontinued there are long range capable widebody models to feed the pigs. (I translated a Bavarian expression for excess.)
I like the proposed B797 as it is optimized for shorter range. And I think for transpacific a plane without cargo is necessary. Boeing can just reuse the fuselage and make a longer wing. Beyond that I doubt there will be any cleansheet widebodies anytime soon.
Last edited by Sokes on Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1529
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:35 am

Sokes wrote:
seahawk wrote:
How about mostly nothing.

Few changes and no clean sheet model sounds likely.

I agree with this.

I think the only aircraft that might see the light of day is the A322. This is the response to the Boeing 797.

The A350 might have new engines by 2028 maybe not in service but in development.

I doubt the A220-500 will appear. The range of the A220-300 is already below average compared to the 737 and A320 family. My estimates is a 3.7m simple stretch would bring range to below 2500nm. That is not very flexible. A MTOW increase to maintain range will be too expensive.

The A330NEO production line will be on life support in 2028 at a rate of 1-2 aircraft per month.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13045
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:16 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Sokes wrote:
seahawk wrote:
How about mostly nothing.

Few changes and no clean sheet model sounds likely.

I agree with this.

I think the only aircraft that might see the light of day is the A322. This is the response to the Boeing 797.

The A350 might have new engines by 2028 maybe not in service but in development.

I doubt the A220-500 will appear. The range of the A220-300 is already below average compared to the 737 and A320 family. My estimates is a 3.7m simple stretch would bring range to below 2500nm. That is not very flexible. A MTOW increase to maintain range will be too expensive.

The A330NEO production line will be on life support in 2028 at a rate of 1-2 aircraft per month.


You can easily fill a 797 with all the fellow a-netters that declared the A330 dead over the last 15 years.

Orders stand at 1700 (+400 A340s) and counting..

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1529
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Airbus product range 2028

Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:19 pm

keesje wrote:
You can easily fill a 797 with all the fellow a-netters that declared the A330 dead over the last 15 years.

Orders stand at 1700 (+400 A340s) and counting..

Stop making things up. No one declared the A330 dead 15 years ago. 15 years ago in 2004 the A330 order backlog was at its peak with 7 years of production at the 2004 production rate. The A330 in set the record at the time for the highest production rate of any widebody in history in 2009, broke that record in 2010, again in 2011, again in 2012 and hit its peak in 2013 with 108 aircraft produced in a year. No one declared the A330 desd during this time.

However today, A330 production is at less than half of the peak production and the backlog is the lowest it has been in 20 years. Boeing is now producing 3 times as many 787's as A330's each month. The A330 backlog and production rate has been in steady decline. At the current rate of decline it will be on life support in 2028 with a production rate of 1-2 aircraft a month.

Please look at the data and accept the facts.

Airbus should have invested more into the A330 than what they did with the NEO. They should have waited and just pumped out more CEO's in the short term. They should have gone with a carbon wing and created more space between the A330NEO and the A350. Optimised the wing for shorter ranges than the A350 with cleansheet engines around 60,000lb.
Last edited by RJMAZ on Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos