MGC1191
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Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:24 pm

Hello everyone!

I wanted to put this out there any see if anyone has heard something similar.

A Facebook Group for aviation enthusiasts here at CLT had a post from a woman saying she had talked to a jetBlue pilot who said they were axing CLT-JFK in October. According to her the pilot was confused because that flight usually goes out full.

Currently flights between CLT and JFK are bookable
through November but someone else said that jetBlue is set to announce major systemwide cuts next week.

Anyone hear anything similar?
Why would jetBlue be making lots of cuts?
 
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enilria
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:34 pm

I have also heard that and that the flights will be moved to Charlotte Boston.
 
Austin787
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:00 pm

Full flights don't necessarily mean profitable flights.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:00 pm

enilria wrote:
I have also heard that and that the flights will be moved to Charlotte Boston.


That sort of makes sense. CLT started in an era when virtually everything opened with JFK service because the BOS hub wasn't really developed yet. Now, newer cities - BNA (the second time around), CLE, EGE, RIC, etc. - tend to start with BOS as their northeast hub.
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Janj
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:11 pm

CLT-BOS already exists, so it would just be adding flights to the route.

Honestly didn't expect it but I'm not surprised either. They are kind of weak in NC. Although I am surprised that they never restarted any CLT-Florida as they grew their Latin American connections at MCO and FLL. Maybe they don't do great RDU-FLL either?
 
impilot
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:21 pm

For some reason, whenever there are cancelation packages or long EDCTs into JFK, CLT is always among the first to get delayed/canceled. Not sure if that is due to low yields, but their LFs always seem high, anecdotally. I do wish CLT and RDU would get more attention and service from JB, not less.
 
Rafale9312
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:24 pm

Janj wrote:
CLT-BOS already exists, so it would just be adding flights to the route.

Honestly didn't expect it but I'm not surprised either. They are kind of weak in NC. Although I am surprised that they never restarted any CLT-Florida as they grew their Latin American connections at MCO and FLL. Maybe they don't do great RDU-FLL either?


RDU-FLL was just increased to 2x daily in the past year or two, so I would think they would be doing well here (but, I know this means nothing). CLT-JFK going away wouldn't surprise me either because both ends are AA hubs (whether or not JFK is a true AA hub is debatable, but I digress) but I guess we'll find out soon enough if the cuts are being announced next week.

impilot wrote:
For some reason, whenever there are cancelation packages or long EDCTs into JFK, CLT is always among the first to get delayed/canceled. Not sure if that is due to low yields, but their LFs always seem high, anecdotally. I do wish CLT and RDU would get more attention and service from JB, not less.


I second this opinion. I really enjoy flying B6, and would choose them more if it weren't for their limited options.
Last edited by Rafale9312 on Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:27 pm

Austin787 wrote:
Full flights don't necessarily mean profitable flights.

Yes, and JFK is a slotted airport which means they may think they have something better to do with the slot, and BOS is not slotted so it gets another flight.
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Ishrion
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:27 pm

It may have been a part of those crew announcements that were leaked a few days ago here.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:55 pm

Austin787 wrote:
Full flights don't necessarily mean profitable flights.

I would think that CLT being a banking center would be an important market from JFK.

As for full flights not being profitable. I know that is a popular position on here but it isn’t true in the current environment. Back in the early 1990s when industry load factor was only 65%, a route that had a 90% LF was probably heavily discounting in order to get a LF that high or was a mostly leasiure market. So yes, then a full flight wasn’t necessarily profitable. However, when industry load factors are pushing 85%, and capacity growth limited with strong demand, it doesn’t take much discount to get that flight to 90% plus airline RM systems are much better than 25 years ago. If any carrier has full flights today that aren’t profitable, that market is being mismanaged especially from slotted airport like JFK. To lose money on a full flight in a business market, Fares would have to be too low, but there is no reason for such low pricing in the current environment with low fuel prices.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:07 pm

It is being cancelled on October 27th. Ending ANC,LRM, HOU, adding IAH, some other changes but nothing major.
a.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:31 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
Austin787 wrote:
Full flights don't necessarily mean profitable flights.

I would think that CLT being a banking center would be an important market from JFK.


There are four other carriers CLT-NYC, and DL and AA on CLT-JFK specifically, with DL also doing LGA and AA all three NYC airports plus HPN. It's not an underserved market.
 
tphuang
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:03 am

Just to bring some facts here. This is from Q4
CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield
JFKCLT 541 9E 18918 141.95 141.87 153.65 99.35% 76.00 298 83.54% 118.52
JFKCLT 541 AA 131410 162.65 161.88 242.21 99.05% 151.0 1016 85.66% 138.67
JFKCLT 541 B6 30123 157.22 156.58 324.99 99.62% 103.7 354 82.08% 128.52
JFKCLT 541 DL 22418 137.45 135.79 186.61 96.73% 109.1 267 76.93% 104.47

They did pretty well here given how strong AA is at CLT. Notice how their yields were 20% higher than DL mainline and almost 10% higher than DL regional?

It was a route that made money, but below system average in margins. And for JFK, that's a huge problem because JFK slots need to make money for B6 to do well.

As I said in the jetblue thread, this is a net result of DL putting pressure in BOS. B6 is forced to make certain decisions that are not great for their NYC network, so they can add higher yield long range VFR routes. Unless the within-perimeter route was added for political reasons, they are in trouble unless they generate average system average in yield.

Also RDU-FLL is doing pretty well. Not in trouble at all. RDU in generally is a very successful station for them.

MAH4546 wrote:
It is being cancelled on October 27th. Ending ANC,LRM, HOU, adding IAH, some other changes but nothing major.


Yes, I've heard about these too. Interesting move for them to switch HOU for IAH. JFK-HOU did really well, but BOS-HOU was consistently a loss leader. I guess this move to IAH should lead to better BOS-IAH performance. I hope they will keep JFK-IAH in that case.

I think they are pouring resources into BOS business routes to keep DL off places like CLT, DFW and IAH.
 
CHOWahoo
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:13 am

Most business people (myself included) strongly prefer LGA to JFK and will pay a premium to fly to LGA. Getting to JFK from my office in FiDi is a complete nightmare at the end of the day. EWR might even be a better option.
If you're traveling for BofA for instance from CLT with Bryant Park as your ultimate destination, I can't imagine what would compel you to choose B6 to JFK.
 
USAirALB
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:32 am

I don't really understand B6's existence in CLT. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see them drop CLT service period.

CLT-JFK is profitable for B6, but the slots used for CLT-JFK would simply be more profitable utilized on another flight. I wouldn't be surprised to see B6 slowly shift away from shorter-haul East Coast JFK flights (with the exception of SYR/ROC/BUF which I can almost guarantee are safe for "political" reasons) in favor of shifting that flying away from JFK and to BOS.

The existing 2 daily JFK flights will be shifted to CLT-BOS for a total of 5x daily flights-which to me seems like too much for the market IMHO.

I believe B6 at CLT initially started with 2x JFK flights, increasing to three daily, while also adding CLT-BOS and a single CLT-FLL flight on an E90. I can't recall when CLT-FLL was launched but I want to say it was ended around Fall 2010 or so. US had a CLT-FLL flight that departed at the exact same time as the B6 flight and consistently matched B6's fares.
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UpNAWAy
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:41 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
Austin787 wrote:
Full flights don't necessarily mean profitable flights.

I would think that CLT being a banking center would be an important market from JFK.

As for full flights not being profitable. I know that is a popular position on here but it isn’t true in the current environment. Back in the early 1990s when industry load factor was only 65%, a route that had a 90% LF was probably heavily discounting in order to get a LF that high or was a mostly leasiure market. So yes, then a full flight wasn’t necessarily profitable. However, when industry load factors are pushing 85%, and capacity growth limited with strong demand, it doesn’t take much discount to get that flight to 90% plus airline RM systems are much better than 25 years ago. If any carrier has full flights today that aren’t profitable, that market is being mismanaged especially from slotted airport like JFK. To lose money on a full flight in a business market, Fares would have to be too low, but there is no reason for such low pricing in the current environment with low fuel prices.


While all of that is absolutely correct. Most people would still be surprised how many flights don't make money. In the US over a full year is guess at least half do not. Most all Tues, Wed and Sat. Flights loose money. Most all Jan-Mar and Oct-Dec are not profitable either (Holidays excluded). Margins are still razor thin in this industry.
Last edited by UpNAWAy on Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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enilria
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:52 am

tphuang wrote:
Just to bring some facts here. This is from Q4
CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield
JFKCLT 541 9E 18918 141.95 141.87 153.65 99.35% 76.00 298 83.54% 118.52
JFKCLT 541 AA 131410 162.65 161.88 242.21 99.05% 151.0 1016 85.66% 138.67
JFKCLT 541 B6 30123 157.22 156.58 324.99 99.62% 103.7 354 82.08% 128.52
JFKCLT 541 DL 22418 137.45 135.79 186.61 96.73% 109.1 267 76.93% 104.47

They did pretty well here given how strong AA is at CLT. Notice how their yields were 20% higher than DL mainline and almost 10% higher than DL regional?

It was a route that made money, but below system average in margins. And for JFK, that's a huge problem because JFK slots need to make money for B6 to do well.

As I said in the jetblue thread, this is a net result of DL putting pressure in BOS. B6 is forced to make certain decisions that are not great for their NYC network, so they can add higher yield long range VFR routes. Unless the within-perimeter route was added for political reasons, they are in trouble unless they generate average system average in yield.

Also RDU-FLL is doing pretty well. Not in trouble at all. RDU in generally is a very successful station for them.

MAH4546 wrote:
It is being cancelled on October 27th. Ending ANC,LRM, HOU, adding IAH, some other changes but nothing major.


Yes, I've heard about these too. Interesting move for them to switch HOU for IAH. JFK-HOU did really well, but BOS-HOU was consistently a loss leader. I guess this move to IAH should lead to better BOS-IAH performance. I hope they will keep JFK-IAH in that case.

I think they are pouring resources into BOS business routes to keep DL off places like CLT, DFW and IAH.

Did NK add CLTEWR? I think they did. That’s more yield pressure. That was probably what broken camel’s back. JetBlue does not compete well with Spirit until their basic economy product gets added.
 
tphuang
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:16 am

CHOWahoo wrote:
Most business people (myself included) strongly prefer LGA to JFK and will pay a premium to fly to LGA. Getting to JFK from my office in FiDi is a complete nightmare at the end of the day. EWR might even be a better option.
If you're traveling for BofA for instance from CLT with Bryant Park as your ultimate destination, I can't imagine what would compel you to choose B6 to JFK.


Depends on whether you go public transit or car ride. For public transit, walk to 53rd and 5th, take E to Jamaica and then Airtrain. You are at terminal 5 in an hour. it would actually take longer to go to LGA terminal B by E train + M60. Plus, there is no shortage of people in NYC willing to pay premium to fly B6 out of JFK.

USAirALB wrote:
The existing 2 daily JFK flights will be shifted to CLT-BOS for a total of 5x daily flights-which to me seems like too much for the market IMHO.


They've done pretty well on BOS-CLT, but that's a lot of additional capacity. AA might finally strike back on this.

enilria wrote:
Did NK add CLTEWR? I think they did. That’s more yield pressure. That was probably what broken camel’s back. JetBlue does not compete well with Spirit until their basic economy product gets added.

In most places, that's true. But not in NYC and BOS. B6 dominates all LCCs in northeast. This has nothing to do with NK or AA. It's all to do with building up BOS and repurposing JFK slots to more profitable markets. I wonder what they are going to cut when it's time to add TATL flights. That will be interesting.
 
evank516
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:01 am

tphuang wrote:
Just to bring some facts here. This is from Q4
CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield
JFKCLT 541 9E 18918 141.95 141.87 153.65 99.35% 76.00 298 83.54% 118.52
JFKCLT 541 AA 131410 162.65 161.88 242.21 99.05% 151.0 1016 85.66% 138.67
JFKCLT 541 B6 30123 157.22 156.58 324.99 99.62% 103.7 354 82.08% 128.52
JFKCLT 541 DL 22418 137.45 135.79 186.61 96.73% 109.1 267 76.93% 104.47

They did pretty well here given how strong AA is at CLT. Notice how their yields were 20% higher than DL mainline and almost 10% higher than DL regional?

It was a route that made money, but below system average in margins. And for JFK, that's a huge problem because JFK slots need to make money for B6 to do well.

As I said in the jetblue thread, this is a net result of DL putting pressure in BOS. B6 is forced to make certain decisions that are not great for their NYC network, so they can add higher yield long range VFR routes. Unless the within-perimeter route was added for political reasons, they are in trouble unless they generate average system average in yield.

Also RDU-FLL is doing pretty well. Not in trouble at all. RDU in generally is a very successful station for them.

MAH4546 wrote:
It is being cancelled on October 27th. Ending ANC,LRM, HOU, adding IAH, some other changes but nothing major.


Yes, I've heard about these too. Interesting move for them to switch HOU for IAH. JFK-HOU did really well, but BOS-HOU was consistently a loss leader. I guess this move to IAH should lead to better BOS-IAH performance. I hope they will keep JFK-IAH in that case.

I think they are pouring resources into BOS business routes to keep DL off places like CLT, DFW and IAH.


Sorry for going OT, but when did DL add mainline to JFK-CLT?
 
CLT704
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 6:01 am

USAirALB wrote:
I don't really understand B6's existence in CLT. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see them drop CLT service period.

CLT-JFK is profitable for B6, but the slots used for CLT-JFK would simply be more profitable utilized on another flight. I wouldn't be surprised to see B6 slowly shift away from shorter-haul East Coast JFK flights (with the exception of SYR/ROC/BUF which I can almost guarantee are safe for "political" reasons) in favor of shifting that flying away from JFK and to BOS.

The existing 2 daily JFK flights will be shifted to CLT-BOS for a total of 5x daily flights-which to me seems like too much for the market IMHO.

I believe B6 at CLT initially started with 2x JFK flights, increasing to three daily, while also adding CLT-BOS and a single CLT-FLL flight on an E90. I can't recall when CLT-FLL was launched but I want to say it was ended around Fall 2010 or so. US had a CLT-FLL flight that departed at the exact same time as the B6 flight and consistently matched B6's fares.


Wrong, B6 started with 4 flights a day on JFK-CLT. One of the flights was quickly upgraded to an A320 shortly after they started in 2006.

Its about time B6 finally offers a competitive schedule at CLT.

Dropping CLT entirely is quite laughable to me. Nice one. With that mentality, I don't understand B6 existence in DTW, HOU, DFW etc etc.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:23 am

UpNAWAy wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Austin787 wrote:
Full flights don't necessarily mean profitable flights.

I would think that CLT being a banking center would be an important market from JFK.

As for full flights not being profitable. I know that is a popular position on here but it isn’t true in the current environment. Back in the early 1990s when industry load factor was only 65%, a route that had a 90% LF was probably heavily discounting in order to get a LF that high or was a mostly leasiure market. So yes, then a full flight wasn’t necessarily profitable. However, when industry load factors are pushing 85%, and capacity growth limited with strong demand, it doesn’t take much discount to get that flight to 90% plus airline RM systems are much better than 25 years ago. If any carrier has full flights today that aren’t profitable, that market is being mismanaged especially from slotted airport like JFK. To lose money on a full flight in a business market, Fares would have to be too low, but there is no reason for such low pricing in the current environment with low fuel prices.


While all of that is absolutely correct. Most people would still be surprised how many flights don't make money. In the US over a full year is guess at least half do not. Most all Tues, Wed and Sat. Flights loose money. Most all Jan-Mar and Oct-Dec are not profitable either (Holidays excluded). Margins are still razor thin in this industry.

Saturday fights probably don’t cuz yields are very low. I’d agree that Tue and Wed use to not make money but they should today. Those days the the opposite of Saturday with high yields and slightly lower demand. October is actually a pretty good month and pretty much everyone makes a 1st quarter profit.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:38 pm

tphuang wrote:
Plus, there is no shortage of people in NYC willing to pay premium to fly B6 out of JFK.


Care to show your data for that assertion? On how many (and what) of how many total routes from JFK is B6 the high avg fare carrier?
 
tphuang
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:39 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Plus, there is no shortage of people in NYC willing to pay premium to fly B6 out of JFK.


Care to show your data for that assertion? On how many (and what) of how many total routes from JFK is B6 the high avg fare carrier?


Among domestic routes, you have the usual suspects like BOS, FLL, PBI, RSW, BUF and SAN. some of the routes are hard to compare since B6 operates larger planes than DL/AA. And also DL/AA are more connection oriented and average fares just don't account for that. But generally speaking, they do well on leisure stuff, which is expected.

And when I say there is no shortage of people willing to pay premium to fly B6, I'm not saying that's a majority. And most B6 customers in NYC are mostly leisure travelers. On trunk routes, they do better than one would expect on a limited schedule, because they can capture good chunk of leisure demand.

It will be interesting to see what happens they start flying TATL, because I think that's a big thing that's stopping them from getting more loyalty in NYC.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:54 pm

This is surprising, just given how long B6 has been on the route.
 
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chepos
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:13 am

I find it hard to believe that if B6 is making money on JFK CLT they would discontinue the route. Airlines don’t usually drop profitable flying.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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tphuang
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:14 am

chepos wrote:
I find it hard to believe that if B6 is making money on JFK CLT they would discontinue the route. Airlines don’t usually drop profitable flying.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They made even more money on JFK dab and dropped it because they could find even higher margin routes to the Caribbeans.

Those JFK slots are very valuable to b6.
 
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enilria
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
In most places, that's true. But not in NYC and BOS. B6 dominates all LCCs in northeast. This has nothing to do with NK or AA. It's all to do with building up BOS and repurposing JFK slots to more profitable markets. I wonder what they are going to cut when it's time to add TATL flights. That will be interesting.

They won't just use AA slots? /s
 
MGC1191
Topic Author
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:35 am

 
EK77WNH
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:32 am

As Charleston is a possible retirement location for my wife and me 2-3 years hence, I’m happy BOS-CHS still exists.
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tphuang
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:21 pm

EK77WNH wrote:
As Charleston is a possible retirement location for my wife and me 2-3 years hence, I’m happy BOS-CHS still exists.

I think pretty much any non seasonal routes out of Boston is safe. These adjustments are made to support Boston growth.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Possible Rumor: B6 ending CLT-JFK

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:37 pm

chepos wrote:
I find it hard to believe that if B6 is making money on JFK CLT they would discontinue the route. Airlines don’t usually drop profitable flying.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I find it tough they aren’t. CLT is a high fare airport and loads are good. CLT is a major business market from NYC. Some have suggested well, it’s jfk and the market prefers lga. Well that’s an argument against all of B6 business portfolio from JFK. Anyone think ATL is better than CLT? I don’t

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