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enilria
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OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:31 pm

FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3E ATL-MKL SEP 0>0.9[0.8]
3E BRL-ORD SEP 0>2[2.0]
3E BRL-STL SEP 0>1.9[1.8]
*3E DSI-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]
3E IWD-MSP SEP 0>1.0[0.7]
3E IWD-ORD SEP 0>1.9[1.8]
*3E JBR-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]

4B CEZ-TEX JUL 0.9>1.7[0] AUG 0.9>1.7[0] SEP 0.9>1.7[0] OCT 0.9>1.7[0]

4P MBL-MDW SEP 0.2>0.8[0.5] OCT 0>0.6[0.8] NOV 0>0.9[0.8] JAN 0>0.9[0.8] MAR 0>0.9[0.8]

7H AKN-ANC OCT 2>1.1[0.9] NOV 2>1.0[0.7] DEC 2>1.0[0.2] JAN 0.7>1.0[0.2] FEB 0.7>1.0[0.2] MAR 0.1>1.0[0.2]
7H AKN-DLG SEP 0.2>0[0.9] OCT 0.2>0.9[0.9] NOV 0.2>1.0[0.7] DEC 0.2>1.0[0.2] JAN 0.7>1.0[0.2] FEB 0.7>1.0[0.2] MAR 0.1>1.0[0.2]
7H ANC-ANI FEB 0.8>1.0[0.8] MAR 0.8>1.0[0.8]
7H ANC-CDB JAN 0.4>0.8[0] FEB 0.4>0.9[0] MAR 0>0.8[0]
7H ANC-DLG OCT 3>2[0.9] NOV 3>1.9[0.7] DEC 3>1.7[0.2] JAN 0.7>1.8[0.2] FEB 0.7>2[0.2] MAR 0.1>2[0.2]
7H ANC-FAI SEP 2>1.7[2] OCT 3>1.6[2] NOV 3>1.7[2] DEC 3>2[2]
7H ANC-HOM SEP 4>5[5]
7H ANC-KSM FEB 0.8>1.0[0.8] MAR 0.8>1.0[0.8]
7H ANC-OTZ JAN 0.3>0.5[0.4] FEB 0.3>0.6[0.2] MAR 0.3>0.6[0.5]
7H ANC-SDP JAN 0.4>0.8[0] FEB 0.4>0.9[0] MAR 0>0.8[0]
7H CDB-SDP JAN 0.4>0[0] FEB 0.4>0[0]

**9K BOS-PWM SEP 0>1.7[0] OCT 0>4[0] NOV 0>4[0] DEC 0>4[0] JAN 0>4[0] FEB 0>4[0] MAR 0>4[0]

AA ALB-DCA JAN 4>5[4] FEB 4>5[4] MAR 4>5[4]
AA AMS-PHL JAN 1.0>0.8[0.8] FEB 1.0>0.8[0.8]
AA ATL-ORD OCT 5>6[5] NOV 5>6[5]
AA BFL-DFW JAN 1.0>1.8[0] FEB 1.0>2[0] MAR 1.0>2[0.9]
*AA BOI-ORD JAN 1.0>0.2[0.2] FEB 1.0>0[0] MAR 1.0>0[0]
AA BOS-ORD FEB 8>7[6]
AA BRO-DFW JAN 4>3[3] FEB 4>3[3] MAR 4>3[3]
AA CDG-PHL FEB 1.0>0.7[0.7]
*AA CHS-ORD JAN 1.0>0.2[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0]
AA CID-ORD OCT 5>7[6] NOV 5>7[5] DEC 5>7[5]
AA CLE-ORD FEB 7>6[6]
AA CLT-DEN JAN 7>5[5] FEB 7>6[5]
AA CLT-GRR JAN 2>3[3] FEB 2>3[3] MAR 2>3[3]
AA CLT-LHR JAN 1.4>2[1.4]
AA CLT-ORD JAN 10>9[9] FEB 10>9[9]
AA CLT-TPA JAN 9>10[9] FEB 9>10[10] MAR 9>10[10]
AA COS-ORD JAN 1.0>0.2[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.6[1.4]
AA DAY-ORD FEB 5>4[4] MAR 5>4[4]
AA DCA-EYW DEC 0.3>0.6[1.2] JAN 0.3>1.0[1.2] FEB 0.3>1.0[1.1] MAR 0.3>1.0[1.0]
AA DCA-MHT JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3] MAR 3>4[3]
AA DCA-PBI DEC 1.5>2[2] JAN 1.0>2[2] FEB 1.0>2[2] MAR 1.0>2[2]
AA DCA-PIT JAN 4>5[4] FEB 4>5[4] MAR 4>5[4]
AA DCA-STL JAN 4>5[3] FEB 3>4[4] MAR 3>4[4]
AA DFW-FSM JAN 4>5[4] FEB 4>5[4] MAR 4>5[4]
AA DFW-IAD JAN 4>3[3] FEB 4>3[3] MAR 4>3[4]
AA DFW-ICT JAN 6>7[6] FEB 6>7[6] MAR 6>7[6]
AA DFW-MEM JAN 7>8[7] FEB 7>8[7] MAR 7>8[7]
*AA DFW-OAK DEC 1.0>0.1[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0]
AA DFW-SEA JAN 8>7[6] FEB 8>7[6] MAR 9>8[7]
AA DSM-ORD FEB 7>6[6]
AA DTW-ORD OCT 7>8[7] JAN 7>6[7] FEB 7>6[7]
*AA ERI-ORD NOV 1.0>0.1[0] DEC 1.0>0[0] JAN 0.2>0[0] FEB 0.6>0[0] MAR 1.0>0[0]
AA FLL-ORD OCT 1.9>1.0[1.7] NOV 2>3[1.9] DEC 2>3[2] JAN 2>4[2] FEB 2>4[2] MAR 2>4[3]
AA FNT-ORD JAN 4>3[3] FEB 4>3[3] MAR 4>3[3]
AA FSD-ORD JAN 3>2[2] FEB 3>2[2]
AA GJT-PHX JAN 2>3[2] FEB 2>3[2] MAR 2>3[2]
AA GRB-ORD OCT 4>5[4] NOV 4>5[4] DEC 4>5[5] JAN 4>5[5] FEB 4>5[5] MAR 4>5[5]
AA GRR-ORD MAR 7>6[6]
AA HSV-ORD JAN 2>1.2[0.9] FEB 2>1.0[0.9] MAR 2>1.0[1.0]
AA JFK-MXP JAN 1.0>0.6[0.6] FEB 1.0>0.6[0.6] MAR 1.0>0.8[0.8]
Now cuts are being extended beyond the runway construction
*AA JFK-ORD NOV 3>1.7[1.0] DEC 4>1.0[1.4] JAN 4>1.0[1.9] FEB 4>1.0[1.9] MAR 4>1.0[1.8]
AA LAX-MCO FEB 4>3[3]
AA LAX-ORD JAN 10>8[9] FEB 10>8[9] MAR 10>9[9]
AA LAX-PHL FEB 6>5[6]
AA LAX-RNO JAN 4>5[5] FEB 4>5[5] MAR 4>5[5]
AA LAX-SAN JAN 6>5[6] FEB 6>5[6] MAR 6>5[6]
AA LAX-SEA FEB 5>4[5] MAR 5>4[5]
*AA LAX-SFO OCT 11>8[12] NOV 11>8[10] DEC 11>8[10] JAN 11>8[9] FEB 11>8[10] MAR 11>8[10]
*AA LGA-PBI DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>1.0[1.1] MAR 0>1.0[1.3]
AA LGA-RIC DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>6[4] FEB 3>5[4] MAR 3>6[4]
AA MEM-ORD OCT 6>5[4] NOV 6>5[4] DEC 6>5[3] JAN 6>3[3] FEB 6>3[3] MAR 6>3[3]
AA MHK-ORD JAN 3>2[1.9] FEB 3>2[2.0] MAR 3>2[2]
AA MIA-MXP FEB 1.0>0.8[0.8] MAR 1.0>0.8[1.0]
AA MSN-ORD OCT 7>6[6] NOV 7>6[6] DEC 7>6[5] JAN 7>6[5] FEB 7>6[5] MAR 7>6[5]
AA OKC-ORD OCT 4>3[3] NOV 4>3[3] DEC 4>3[3] JAN 4>3[3] FEB 4>3[3]
AA OKC-PHX JAN 1.0>1.8[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.5] MAR 1.0>2[1.9]
AA OMA-ORD OCT 6>5[5] NOV 6>5[5] DEC 6>5[5] JAN 6>5[5] FEB 6>5[5] MAR 6>5[5]
AA ORD-PBI JAN 2>3[2] FEB 2>3[2] MAR 2>3[3]
AA ORD-PDX JAN 2>1.2[1.1] FEB 2>1.0[1.0] MAR 2>1.0[1.0]
AA ORD-PIA JAN 3>2[2] FEB 3>1.8[1.9]
AA ORD-PSP OCT 0.8>1.3[1.8]
AA ORD-RDU JAN 5>4[2]
*AA ORD-RNO JAN 1.0>0.2[0] FEB 1.0>0[0] MAR 1.0>0[0]
AA ORD-SAT OCT 3>2[2] NOV 3>2[1.9] DEC 3>2[2] JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[3]
AA ORD-SDF NOV 4>5[5] DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4] FEB 4>5[4] MAR 4>5[4]
AA ORD-SEA OCT 6>5[5] NOV 6>5[4] DEC 6>5[4] JAN 6>3[3] FEB 6>3[3] MAR 6>3[3]
AA ORD-SFO OCT 5>6[6] NOV 5>6[6] DEC 5>6[6]
AA ORD-SGF JAN 5>4[4] FEB 5>4[4]
AA ORD-SJC JAN 1.9>1.2[1.2] FEB 1.9>1.1[1.0] MAR 1.9>1.1[1.0]
AA ORD-SJU SEP 0.0>0.4[0.3]
AA ORD-SNA JAN 4>3[3] FEB 4>3[3] MAR 4>3[3]
AA ORD-TVC JAN 5>4[4] FEB 5>4[3] MAR 5>4[3]
AA ORD-TYS JAN 3>2[2.0] FEB 3>2[1.9] MAR 3>2[2]
AA PHL-ZRH NOV 1.0>0.7[0.7] JAN 1.0>0.6[0.6] FEB 1.0>0.6[0.6] MAR 1.0>0.7[0.9]

AC BDL-YYZ NOV 3>2[3] DEC 3>2[3] JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[3] MAR 3>2[3]
AC BOS-YUL JAN 5>4[5] FEB 5>4[5] MAR 5>4[5]
AC DEN-YUL NOV 0.7>1.0[0.7]
AC IAD-YYZ NOV 3>2[3] DEC 3>2[3] JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[3] MAR 3>2[3]
AC KOA-YVR JAN 0.5>0.7[0.5] FEB 0.5>0.7[0.5]
AC LAS-YYZ NOV 2>3[2]
AC MIA-YUL SEP 0.8>0.1[0.4]
AC ORD-YYZ JAN 7>8[7] FEB 7>8[7]
AC PHX-YYC NOV 0.8>1.0[0.7]
AC SAN-YVR NOV 3>2[2]
*AC SAV-YYZ FEB 0.1>1.0[0]
AC SEA-YVR NOV 5>6[5] DEC 5>6[5] JAN 5>6[5] FEB 5>6[5] MAR 5>6[5]
AC SFO-YUL NOV 1.0>1.4[1.0]
AC SFO-YVR NOV 4>5[4] DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4] FEB 4>5[4] MAR 4>5[4]

*AF MIA-PTP NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.2[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.2[0]

AS BOI-SEA AUG 10>11[10] SEP 8>10[8] OCT 9>11[8] NOV 9>11[8] DEC 9>11[8] JAN 9>11[9] FEB 9>11[9] MAR 9>11[9]
AS EWR-SFO AUG 4>3[4]
AS GEG-SEA AUG 14>16[15]
AS ORD-PDX AUG 2.0>1.2[1.2]
AS PDX-SEA JUL 18>20[25] AUG 19>21[24]
AS RDM-SEA AUG 5>6[5]
AS SEA-SFO AUG 14>15[11]

B6 FLL-MEX AUG 2>1.6[2] SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.0[2] DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 0.8>0.4[2]
B6 MCO-MEX AUG 2>1.6[2] SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.0[2] DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 0.8>0.4[2]

DL ATL-SDF FEB 7>8[7]
*DL BOS-CHS JAN 0.2>1.0[0.1] FEB 0>1.0[0]
DL BOS-LGA MAR 14>13[13]
Quite a few SEA increases. Pick up a gate?
*DL BOS-SEA JAN 1.1>1.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.7[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.7[1.5]
*DL BZN-SEA JAN 0.2>0.4[0.1] FEB 0>0.3[0]
DL MEX-MSP SEP 1.0>0.8[0] OCT 1.0>0.8[0] NOV 1.0>0.6[0] DEC 1.0>0.7[0]
DL MSP-MSY FEB 1.0>1.5[1.0] MAR 1.0>2[1.5]
DL PHX-SEA JAN 3>4[4] FEB 3>4[4]
DL PSP-SEA JAN 1.1>2.0[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0] MAR 1.0>2[1.0]
*DL SEA-SJD JAN 0.4>1.0[0.4] FEB 0.3>1.0[0.3] MAR 0.3>1.0[0.3]
DL SEA-TUS JAN 1.0>1.8[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0] MAR 1.0>2[1.0]

G4 ABE-SAV SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0]
G4 ALB-MYR OCT 0>0.3[0]
G4 AZA-MFE OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 AZA-RDM OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 BNA-CID OCT 0>0.3[0]
G4 GRR-JAX OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 GRR-MSY OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.2[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 LAS-RDM OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 PGD-TVC NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 PIE-SCE NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 PIE-TVC NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 SCE-SFB OCT 0>0.2[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 SFB-TVC NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]

NK AUS-BWI JAN 0.7>1.0[0]
NK AUS-LAX JAN 0.7>1.0[0]
NK AUS-MSY JAN 0.7>1.0[0]
NK AUS-ORD JAN 0.7>1.0[0]

UA AVP-ORD NOV 3>2.0[3]
UA BOS-EWR NOV 11>10[11]
UA BZN-LAX NOV 1.0>0.8[1.0]
UA CAE-IAH NOV 0.8>1.0[1.0]
UA DEN-SFO NOV 10>9[9]
UA EWR-PIT NOV 10>9[8]
UA EWR-SFO NOV 14>13[13]
UA EWR-XNA NOV 0.7>0.9[0.8]
UA HDN-ORD JAN 0.3>0.5[0.4]
UA LAX-SFO NOV 12>11[14]
UA MTJ-ORD NOV 0>1.0[0]

VH MDE-MIA SEP 0.3>0.6[0] JAN 0.8>1.0[0.8]
*VH MIA-SMR DEC 0.4>0[0] JAN 0.4>0[0]
 
Gulfstream500
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:30 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:55 pm

Winners, losers

Winners:
LGA: seems to be taking up JFK’s flights on AA!
DCA: significant expansion from AA!
SEA: great expansion from DL and AS to BOI, SFO, TUS, BOS, and more.
AUS: 4 NK flights made daily.
PWM: Nonstop 9K flights to BOS, connections with B6

Losers:
JFK: How does an AA “hub” manage to only have one daily flight to another hub, even when it’s one of the most crowded routes in the US?
PHL: Two TATLs (AMS, CDG) moved to less than daily.

And the I cannot begin to understand award goes to... ORD! (Honestly though, there are probably so many changes that half the AA destinations changed over the course of a week.)
What's the deal with airplane food?

Frontier Airlines: Spirit of the west
 
sprxUSA
Posts: 199
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 5:17 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:57 pm

The BOI-ORD is following same schedule as this year. It was cut until it came back in May. Nothing different it would seld.
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5215
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:16 pm

FSDan did great work with flight counts by hub/carrier/type. I wish he would do seat counts (or RPM totals). I have to wonder if this is the start of AA's long term decline at ORD, the way AA conceded to B6 at BOS.
 
midway7
Posts: 247
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2004 10:24 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:22 pm

I will take the opportunity this week to thank you for publishing this!
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2078
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:26 pm

For AA’s ORD-CHS/ERI/RNO/BOI cuts, they appear to be seasonal. OAK on the other hand, I wonder?

Thanks for this as always.
Last edited by Dominion301 on Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jayunited
Posts: 2071
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:26 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
FSDan did great work with flight counts by hub/carrier/type. I wish he would do seat counts (or RPM totals). I have to wonder if this is the start of AA's long term decline at ORD, the way AA conceded to B6 at BOS.


I don't even work for AA but I'm quite sure AA is not giving up or declining at ORD they may be making adjustments but strategic adjustments isn't the same as declining. ORD is far to important to AA's overall network than either JFK or BOS and it is clear AA is in decline at both of those airports, AA at ORD will be just fine.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2898
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:32 pm

Thanks for releasing this so early in the morning, enilria!

enilria wrote:
**9K BOS-PWM SEP 0>1.7[0] OCT 0>4[0] NOV 0>4[0] DEC 0>4[0] JAN 0>4[0] FEB 0>4[0] MAR 0>4[0]

I do wonder if this will eventually become year round and then B6 will cancel JFK-PWM.

AA LAX-ORD JAN 10>8[9] FEB 10>8[9] MAR 10>9[9]
AA LAX-PHL FEB 6>5[6]
AA LAX-RNO JAN 4>5[5] FEB 4>5[5] MAR 4>5[5]
AA LAX-SAN JAN 6>5[6] FEB 6>5[6] MAR 6>5[6]
AA LAX-SEA FEB 5>4[5] MAR 5>4[5]
*AA LAX-SFO OCT 11>8[12] NOV 11>8[10] DEC 11>8[10] JAN 11>8[9] FEB 11>8[10] MAR 11>8[10]

are they upgauging LAX? Quite a bit of reduction going on.

*AA LGA-PBI DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>1.0[1.1] MAR 0>1.0[1.3]
AA LGA-RIC DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>6[4] FEB 3>5[4] MAR 3>6[4]

interesting they brought back LGA-PBI. RIC is getting a lot more flights from AA out of NYC.

B6 FLL-MEX AUG 2>1.6[2] SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.0[2] DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 0.8>0.4[2]
B6 MCO-MEX AUG 2>1.6[2] SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.0[2] DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 0.8>0.4[2]

These are definitely not performing well. Maybe they are ready to return 2 MEX slots.

Quite a few SEA increases. Pick up a gate?
*DL BOS-SEA JAN 1.1>1.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.7[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.7[1.5]

I've seen them change Jan/Feb/Mar to 1.5 and back several times this year already. I think someone in DL HQ is embarrassed they have the lowest frequency here.
 
jb1087xna
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:45 pm

Thanks as always for your work in putting this together!

enilria wrote:
AA DFW-FSM JAN 4>5[4] FEB 4>5[4] MAR 4>5[4]

I'm shocked that is needed. FSM's traffic has only grown 1-2% over the last ~2 years. AA will be up to 5 CR9s daily and DL can't make anything more than 2 CR2s a day work.
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:59 pm

enilria wrote:

*3E DSI-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]
*3E JBR-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]



Well, those are...different.

Thanks for doing this each week, enilria!
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:25 pm

enilria wrote:
AA BFL-DFW JAN 1.0>1.8[0] FEB 1.0>2[0] MAR 1.0>2[0.9]
*AA DFW-OAK DEC 1.0>0.1[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0]


Pretty quick increase for BFL-DFW, it started March 3rd around the same time as MRY/SBP-DFW.

And DFW-OAK has been all over the map ever since it started. IIRC, it quickly jumped to twice daily and ever since has been a seesaw of frequency adjustments. Seems like they could at least make an E175 work if mainline is too much capacity to fill.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:27 pm

Glad to see IAH-CAE back in the schedule.
Religion is the root of evil...
 
flyfresno
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:31 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
AA BFL-DFW JAN 1.0>1.8[0] FEB 1.0>2[0] MAR 1.0>2[0.9]
*AA DFW-OAK DEC 1.0>0.1[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0]


Pretty quick increase for BFL-DFW, it started March 3rd around the same time as MRY/SBP-DFW.

And DFW-OAK has been all over the map ever since it started. IIRC, it quickly jumped to twice daily and ever since has been a seesaw of frequency adjustments. Seems like they could at least make an E175 work if mainline is too much capacity to fill.


Great news for BFL! Perhaps the service will last beyond the grant?
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:34 pm

American's actually growing faster in percentage terms YOY not only in comparison with UA at ORD but
Not shown in UA is some upgauging at ORD. MSN, XNA, COS, GRB, SYR, GSO all see a lot of CRJ/ERJ > CR7 upgauging.
ORD-CLE goes nearly all mainline (9x daily) during the week (except for Monday/Saturday which see some 50-seaters)
ORD-PBI goes mainline
Some routes lose 50 seaters entirely (ORD-MSN/XNA/some others)
Still not enough to get UA out of its domestic whole entirely but positive.
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:40 pm

midway7 wrote:
I will take the opportunity this week to thank you for publishing this!

:)
Dominion301 wrote:
For AA’s ORD-CHS/ERI/RNO/BOI cuts, they appear to be seasonal. OAK on the other hand, I wonder?

Thanks for this as always.

:)
Yes, I said suspended to leave that open. I agree on OAK. Perhaps worth a trip to aa.com to see if it is for sale in May 2020?
jayunited wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
FSDan did great work with flight counts by hub/carrier/type. I wish he would do seat counts (or RPM totals). I have to wonder if this is the start of AA's long term decline at ORD, the way AA conceded to B6 at BOS.


I don't even work for AA but I'm quite sure AA is not giving up or declining at ORD they may be making adjustments but strategic adjustments isn't the same as declining. ORD is far to important to AA's overall network than either JFK or BOS and it is clear AA is in decline at both of those airports, AA at ORD will be just fine.

I think it's more a question of whether they have given up trying to overtake UA and instead solidify what they have and hold there.
tphuang wrote:
Thanks for releasing this so early in the morning, enilria!

:)
tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
**9K BOS-PWM SEP 0>1.7[0] OCT 0>4[0] NOV 0>4[0] DEC 0>4[0] JAN 0>4[0] FEB 0>4[0] MAR 0>4[0]

I do wonder if this will eventually become year round and then B6 will cancel JFK-PWM.

Maybe, but it is definitely there to feed B6.
tphuang wrote:
*AA LGA-PBI DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>1.0[1.1] MAR 0>1.0[1.3]
AA LGA-RIC DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>6[4] FEB 3>5[4] MAR 3>6[4]

interesting they brought back LGA-PBI. RIC is getting a lot more flights from AA out of NYC.

Yeah, I didn't remark on that because it was there last year. I assume they are just slow moving on seasonal re-adds.
tphuang wrote:
B6 FLL-MEX AUG 2>1.6[2] SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.0[2] DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 0.8>0.4[2]
B6 MCO-MEX AUG 2>1.6[2] SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.0[2] DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 0.8>0.4[2]

These are definitely not performing well. Maybe they are ready to return 2 MEX slots.

Agreed. The AM/DL slots that were freed up are just overwhelmed by market power. The DOT program was a bit of a failure.
tphuang wrote:
Quite a few SEA increases. Pick up a gate?
*DL BOS-SEA JAN 1.1>1.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.7[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.7[1.5]

I've seen them change Jan/Feb/Mar to 1.5 and back several times this year already. I think someone in DL HQ is embarrassed they have the lowest frequency here.

That is interesting. It may be that it sucks, but that a VP keeps saying we can't win in these markets with a poor schedule.
jb1087xna wrote:
Thanks as always for your work in putting this together!
:)

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

*3E DSI-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]
*3E JBR-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]



Well, those are...different.

Thanks for doing this each week, enilria!

Yeah, what is that about? Just tags I guess?
flyfresno wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
AA BFL-DFW JAN 1.0>1.8[0] FEB 1.0>2[0] MAR 1.0>2[0.9]
*AA DFW-OAK DEC 1.0>0.1[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0]


Pretty quick increase for BFL-DFW, it started March 3rd around the same time as MRY/SBP-DFW.

And DFW-OAK has been all over the map ever since it started. IIRC, it quickly jumped to twice daily and ever since has been a seesaw of frequency adjustments. Seems like they could at least make an E175 work if mainline is too much capacity to fill.


Great news for BFL! Perhaps the service will last beyond the grant?

That would imply definitely
 
FATFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:43 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
For AA’s ORD-CHS/ERI/RNO/BOI cuts, they appear to be seasonal. OAK on the other hand, I wonder?

Thanks for this as always.


I agree they could be seasonal cuts although we cannot be sure until next year.

But looking at last year, the June 17, 2018 OAG thread shows ORD-CHS/RNO/BOI all being cut last year. But those routes returned. So last year these were seasonal cuts. Could be the same this year.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1396827
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FlyingElvii
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:03 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
AA BFL-DFW JAN 1.0>1.8[0] FEB 1.0>2[0] MAR 1.0>2[0.9]
*AA DFW-OAK DEC 1.0>0.1[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0]


Pretty quick increase for BFL-DFW, it started March 3rd around the same time as MRY/SBP-DFW.

And DFW-OAK has been all over the map ever since it started. IIRC, it quickly jumped to twice daily and ever since has been a seesaw of frequency adjustments. Seems like they could at least make an E175 work if mainline is too much capacity to fill.

MRY has always had significant premium traffic. The SBP is interesting though. Is there more premium demand there, these days?
 
CIDFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:22 pm

CID got some love this week, Allegiants Nashville flight extended now through October (second time it’s been extended) and AA goes to 7 daily to ORD
 
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compensateme
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:44 pm

DF
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:52 pm

AA BFL-DFW JAN 1.0>1.8[0] FEB 1.0>2[0] MAR 1.0>2[0.9]


Last time BFL-DFW was x2 daily would have to have been 1995...but congratulations nonetheless to BFL for not just gaining service but expanding upon it!
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:00 pm

enilria wrote:


AA ALB-DCA JAN 4>5[4] FEB 4>5[4] MAR 4>5[4]
AA DCA-EYW DEC 0.3>0.6[1.2] JAN 0.3>1.0[1.2] FEB 0.3>1.0[1.1] MAR 0.3>1.0[1.0]
AA DCA-MHT JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3] MAR 3>4[3]
AA DCA-PBI DEC 1.5>2[2] JAN 1.0>2[2] FEB 1.0>2[2] MAR 1.0>2[2]
AA DCA-PIT JAN 4>5[4] FEB 4>5[4] MAR 4>5[4]
AA DCA-STL JAN 4>5[3] FEB 3>4[4] MAR 3

A number of off season adds. Do they have unused slots they need to fill?
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:03 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
FSDan did great work with flight counts by hub/carrier/type. I wish he would do seat counts (or RPM totals). I have to wonder if this is the start of AA's long term decline at ORD, the way AA conceded to B6 at BOS.



My gosh if we believe what the executives say and I’m believe domestic has climbed and international shrank.
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:06 pm

I don't get the MKL flights. It's 80 miles to Memphis. Jackson used to be the 5th largest in Tennessee, now it's barely holding on to eighth place. EAS or not, seems a waste to me.
I have been on this site 15 years. A unrecoverable email account led me to starting over. Those of you who call me a rookie, you may stop ok?
 
malev2012
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:16 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Winners, losers

Winners:
AUS: 4 NK flights made daily.



NK AUS flights are currently daily this is just an extension. NK hadn't entered AUS at this point last year.
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, BA, CO, DL, DY, EW, F9, G4, IB, KL, LH, LX, NK, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE
 
LAXBUR
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:24 pm

RE: BOI-SEA
Obviously, a Delta retaliation after they went from 5 to 7 daily. In August AlaskaAir.com shows up to 12 daily with three 737s. Back to 11 in fall with two 737s. Big capacity increase. The extra 737 makes for two AS737 RONs. Not sure where they’ll put the extra one as all the gates are full at night.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:41 pm

enilria wrote:
midway7 wrote:
I will take the opportunity this week to thank you for publishing this!

:)
Dominion301 wrote:
For AA’s ORD-CHS/ERI/RNO/BOI cuts, they appear to be seasonal. OAK on the other hand, I wonder?

Thanks for this as always.

:)
Yes, I said suspended to leave that open. I agree on OAK. Perhaps worth a trip to aa.com to see if it is for sale in May 2020?


jayunited wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
FSDan did great work with flight counts by hub/carrier/type. I wish he would do seat counts (or RPM totals). I have to wonder if this is the start of AA's long term decline at ORD, the way AA conceded to B6 at BOS.


I don't even work for AA but I'm quite sure AA is not giving up or declining at ORD they may be making adjustments but strategic adjustments isn't the same as declining. ORD is far to important to AA's overall network than either JFK or BOS and it is clear AA is in decline at both of those airports, AA at ORD will be just fine.

I think it's more a question of whether they have given up trying to overtake UA and instead solidify what they have and hold there.
tphuang wrote:
Thanks for releasing this so early in the morning, enilria!

:)
tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
**9K BOS-PWM SEP 0>1.7[0] OCT 0>4[0] NOV 0>4[0] DEC 0>4[0] JAN 0>4[0] FEB 0>4[0] MAR 0>4[0]

I do wonder if this will eventually become year round and then B6 will cancel JFK-PWM.

Maybe, but it is definitely there to feed B6.
tphuang wrote:
*AA LGA-PBI DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>1.0[1.1] MAR 0>1.0[1.3]
AA LGA-RIC DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>6[4] FEB 3>5[4] MAR 3>6[4]

interesting they brought back LGA-PBI. RIC is getting a lot more flights from AA out of NYC.

Yeah, I didn't remark on that because it was there last year. I assume they are just slow moving on seasonal re-adds.
tphuang wrote:
B6 FLL-MEX AUG 2>1.6[2] SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.0[2] DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 0.8>0.4[2]
B6 MCO-MEX AUG 2>1.6[2] SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.0[2] DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 0.8>0.4[2]

These are definitely not performing well. Maybe they are ready to return 2 MEX slots.

Agreed. The AM/DL slots that were freed up are just overwhelmed by market power. The DOT program was a bit of a failure.
tphuang wrote:
Quite a few SEA increases. Pick up a gate?
*DL BOS-SEA JAN 1.1>1.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.7[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.7[1.5]

I've seen them change Jan/Feb/Mar to 1.5 and back several times this year already. I think someone in DL HQ is embarrassed they have the lowest frequency here.

That is interesting. It may be that it sucks, but that a VP keeps saying we can't win in these markets with a poor schedule.
jb1087xna wrote:
Thanks as always for your work in putting this together!
:)

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

*3E DSI-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]
*3E JBR-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]



Well, those are...different.

Thanks for doing this each week, enilria!

Yeah, what is that about? Just tags I guess?
flyfresno wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:

Pretty quick increase for BFL-DFW, it started March 3rd around the same time as MRY/SBP-DFW.

And DFW-OAK has been all over the map ever since it started. IIRC, it quickly jumped to twice daily and ever since has been a seesaw of frequency adjustments. Seems like they could at least make an E175 work if mainline is too much capacity to fill.


Great news for BFL! Perhaps the service will last beyond the grant?

That would imply definitely


As suggested :) I took a look enilria at AA’s May 18, 2020 schedule and all the the route cuts are seasonal. When exactly they return, I’ll leave that for someone else to dig through though :-p
 
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:11 pm

Thanks as aways, enilria!

enilria wrote:
*3E DSI-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]
*3E JBR-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]


Air Choice One is adding unsubsidized Thurs/Fri/Sun/Mon service to Destin by adjusting the subsidized JBR-STL schedule to free up an aircraft for several hours to run JBR-MKL-DSI and back. It was only announced about 2 weeks prior to the start of service (July 4).

https://www.airchoiceone.com/air-choice ... n-florida/

Given that the flights are on Caravans it's no surprise they are slow...the one-way trip is 2.5 hours from Jackson and (with the added top to / stop in Jackson) 3.5 hours from Jonesboro. Also perhaps not surpring is that fares for these unsubsidized flights are high. Nonrefundable prices start at $204.25 one way from Jackson and $236.50 one way from Jonesboro. Then again many of the same dates these Destin flights operate this summer the one-way fare Southwest has from STL to ECP is over $200 as well.

I give Air Choice One credit for looking to diversify. The smallest-city EAS markets have grown much more competitive in the past 18-30 months or so. Boutique has been joined by Southern, Cape and Advanced Air as carriers more aggressivley bidding for 9-seat EAS markets in wider parts of the country. Some communities who have traditionally been happy with their nine-seat EAS carrier have opted for new blood when the contract came up instead of the status quo A few markets have gone with the Alternate EAS route which usually brings in a larger aircraft but with lower and/or seasonally adjusted frequency. And Skywest continues to hover looking to snatch up 9-seat EAS markets they can find a way to bring in a less-frequent CRJ for similar or lower subsidy. So I think there's danger for these low-tier EAS carriers to be bid out of their reason for existance if they lose an award or two.

Of course an obvious, valid question is if you're going to try something like this why not do Destin from someplace bigger like Little Rock or Memphis, Jonesboro and Jackson can barely support their subsidized EAS service. But if you look at the factors this may not be as dumb as it seems.

--They only need 27 passengers per week each way to hit 75% full, so it's not a whole lot of people.

--That small cities which have failed to support traditional commuter service can (suprisingly) fill hundreds of weekly seats on direct flights to places like Florida and Vegas has been proven over and over by Allegiant. Obviuosly very, very different dynamics and business models in play but it counters the stereotype of smaller communities generating next to zero air traffic.

--Because Air Choice One already serves Jonesboro and Jackson the added airport costs are minimal. Operating out of a new airport like Little Rock or Memphis would add significant cost.

--Air Choice One is already known in JBR and MKL and has marketed themselves in those two communities for a few years. They are an absolute unknown in places like LIttle Rock or Memphis. Perhaps even more important the segment of local residents who do travel by air sometimes (even if it is not a huge portion) use Air Chioce One now and are likely the best customers for these new Destin flights. Again, they'd have nothing similar in Little Rock or Memphis and would struggle to have anything similar.

I'm certainly not saying these will necessarily be successful, but after giving it some thought it's not as off the wall as it first seemed.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:13 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:
I don't get the MKL flights. It's 80 miles to Memphis. Jackson used to be the 5th largest in Tennessee, now it's barely holding on to eighth place. EAS or not, seems a waste to me.


I understand the case for MKL-DSI. West Tennessee is a part of the world where Destin vacations are popular, the drive is arduous, and there are not many seats to fill. I have no idea whether it will work but it’s not totally off the wall.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:20 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Thanks as aways, enilria!

enilria wrote:
*3E DSI-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]
*3E JBR-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]


Air Choice One is adding unsubsidized Thurs/Fri/Sun/Mon service to Destin by adjusting the subsidized JBR-STL schedule to free up an aircraft for several hours to run JBR-MKL-DSI and back. It was only announced about 2 weeks prior to the start of service (July 4).

https://www.airchoiceone.com/air-choice ... n-florida/

Given that the flights are on Caravans it's no surprise they are slow...the one-way trip is 2.5 hours from Jackson and (with the added top to / stop in Jackson) 3.5 hours from Jonesboro. Also perhaps not surpring is that fares for these unsubsidized flights are high. Nonrefundable prices start at $204.25 one way from Jackson and $236.50 one way from Jonesboro. Then again many of the same dates these Destin flights operate this summer the one-way fare Southwest has from STL to ECP is over $200 as well.

I give Air Choice One credit for looking to diversify. The smallest-city EAS markets have grown much more competitive in the past 18-30 months or so. Boutique has been joined by Southern, Cape and Advanced Air as carriers more aggressivley bidding for 9-seat EAS markets in wider parts of the country. Some communities who have traditionally been happy with their nine-seat EAS carrier have opted for new blood when the contract came up instead of the status quo A few markets have gone with the Alternate EAS route which usually brings in a larger aircraft but with lower and/or seasonally adjusted frequency. And Skywest continues to hover looking to snatch up 9-seat EAS markets they can find a way to bring in a less-frequent CRJ for similar or lower subsidy. So I think there's danger for these low-tier EAS carriers to be bid out of their reason for existance if they lose an award or two.

Of course an obvious, valid question is if you're going to try something like this why not do Destin from someplace bigger like Little Rock or Memphis, Jonesboro and Jackson can barely support their subsidized EAS service. But if you look at the factors this may not be as dumb as it seems.

--They only need 27 passengers per week each way to hit 75% full, so it's not a whole lot of people.

--That small cities which have failed to support traditional commuter service can (suprisingly) fill hundreds of weekly seats on direct flights to places like Florida and Vegas has been proven over and over by Allegiant. Obviuosly very, very different dynamics and business models in play but it counters the stereotype of smaller communities generating next to zero air traffic.

--Because Air Choice One already serves Jonesboro and Jackson the added airport costs are minimal. Operating out of a new airport like Little Rock or Memphis would add significant cost.

--Air Choice One is already known in JBR and MKL and has marketed themselves in those two communities for a few years. They are an absolute unknown in places like LIttle Rock or Memphis. Perhaps even more important the segment of local residents who do travel by air sometimes (even if it is not a huge portion) use Air Chioce One now and are likely the best customers for these new Destin flights. Again, they'd have nothing similar in Little Rock or Memphis and would struggle to have anything similar.

I'm certainly not saying these will necessarily be successful, but after giving it some thought it's not as off the wall as it first seemed.


I stopped at MKL for fuel and lunch the last time we were coming home from South Carolina to California. Nice airport, nice little terminal. The FBO was in the same building as 3E. They have courtesy cars for driving into town for lunch.
 
flyboy7974
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:21 pm

Quoting Gulfsream500, don’t know why it didn’t show the copy .........

Losers:
JFK: How does an AA “hub” manage to only have one daily flight to another hub, even when it’s one of the most crowded routes in the US?
PHL: Two TATLs (AMS, CDG) moved to less than daily.

Nothing new for PHL and happens yearly after the holidays that TATL are flown less then daily. Once finalized, I’m sure we’ll also eventually see FCO suspended for 3 weeks in FEB and other small reductions for JAN/FEB. Now I’m really waiting for the late summer announcement for next year’s summer seasonal adds, PHL rumored to get a couple new TATL markets.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:32 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
FSDan did great work with flight counts by hub/carrier/type. I wish he would do seat counts (or RPM totals). I have to wonder if this is the start of AA's long term decline at ORD, the way AA conceded to B6 at BOS.

Base on what? Seasonal cuts they make every year.
 
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jsnww81
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:40 pm

*AA LAX-SFO OCT 11>8[12] NOV 11>8[10] DEC 11>8[10] JAN 11>8[9] FEB 11>8[10] MAR 11>8[10]


Hopefully this means a bit more mainline coming back to the route in exchange for frequencies? The route went all E175 back in 2015-16 but since then 1-2 mainline rotations have crept back in. Having to bus out to the Eagle's Nest for a regional jet flight - which American will inevitably sacrifice on the altar of flow control as soon as a cloud appears over San Francisco Bay - has made the route hugely unreliable.

I fly into SJC unless I absolutely need to be in the city for business (even meeting clients in places like San Mateo, Redwood City, etc), because you cannot depend on the LAX-SFO flights to get you in anywhere near scheduled time. They weren't great when the route was all mainline either, but I can't tell you how many meetings I've missed or had to reschedule since the route went all Eagle.
 
Cactusjuba
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:56 pm

jsnww81 wrote:
*AA LAX-SFO OCT 11>8[12] NOV 11>8[10] DEC 11>8[10] JAN 11>8[9] FEB 11>8[10] MAR 11>8[10]


Hopefully this means a bit more mainline coming back to the route in exchange for frequencies? The route went all E175 back in 2015-16 but since then 1-2 mainline rotations have crept back in. Having to bus out to the Eagle's Nest for a regional jet flight - which American will inevitably sacrifice on the altar of flow control as soon as a cloud appears over San Francisco Bay - has made the route hugely unreliable.

I fly into SJC unless I absolutely need to be in the city for business (even meeting clients in places like San Mateo, Redwood City, etc), because you cannot depend on the LAX-SFO flights to get you in anywhere near scheduled time. They weren't great when the route was all mainline either, but I can't tell you how many meetings I've missed or had to reschedule since the route went all Eagle.


Just so you know, it's ATC that does the flow control sacrifices, not the airline. SFO will always be a cluster when they cannot accept visual approaches (clouds over the bridge/bay). Having intersecting runways cuts the numbers of arrivals considerably, but the real issue is the closely spaced parallel runways 28L/R. Jets can't fly side by side on landing unless they can maintain visual with each other to landing.
 
Ishrion
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 6:06 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Winners, losers

Winners:
LGA: seems to be taking up JFK’s flights on AA!
DCA: significant expansion from AA!
SEA: great expansion from DL and AS to BOI, SFO, TUS, BOS, and more.
AUS: 4 NK flights made daily.
PWM: Nonstop 9K flights to BOS, connections with B6

Losers:
JFK: How does an AA “hub” manage to only have one daily flight to another hub, even when it’s one of the most crowded routes in the US?
PHL: Two TATLs (AMS, CDG) moved to less than daily.

And the I cannot begin to understand award goes to... ORD! (Honestly though, there are probably so many changes that half the AA destinations changed over the course of a week.)


Would you really call PHL a loser? CDG/AMS are now at the same frequency as last year. Not really anything different.

However, note that PHL-AMS will be a 788 starting next January. That’s a loss of 8 business class seats, the introduction of 28 PE seats, 48 MCE seats, and 143 Economy seats. 30 extra seats in total, which is an increase in capacity compared to last year.
 
flyboy7974
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 6:48 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Winners, losers

Winners:
LGA: seems to be taking up JFK’s flights on AA!
DCA: significant expansion from AA!
SEA: great expansion from DL and AS to BOI, SFO, TUS, BOS, and more.
AUS: 4 NK flights made daily.
PWM: Nonstop 9K flights to BOS, connections with B6

Losers:
JFK: How does an AA “hub” manage to only have one daily flight to another hub, even when it’s one of the most crowded routes in the US?
PHL: Two TATLs (AMS, CDG) moved to less than daily.

And the I cannot begin to understand award goes to... ORD! (Honestly though, there are probably so many changes that half the AA destinations changed over the course of a week.)


Would you really call PHL a loser? CDG/AMS are now at the same frequency as last year. Not really anything different.

However, note that PHL-AMS will be a 788 starting next January. That’s a loss of 8 business class seats, the introduction of 28 PE seats, 48 MCE seats, and 143 Economy seats. 30 extra seats in total, which is an increase in capacity compared to last year.



ZRH/MAN also moving to the 788 starting January 7
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:09 pm

jsnww81 wrote:
*AA LAX-SFO OCT 11>8[12] NOV 11>8[10] DEC 11>8[10] JAN 11>8[9] FEB 11>8[10] MAR 11>8[10]


Hopefully this means a bit more mainline coming back to the route in exchange for frequencies? The route went all E175 back in 2015-16 but since then 1-2 mainline rotations have crept back in. Having to bus out to the Eagle's Nest for a regional jet flight - which American will inevitably sacrifice on the altar of flow control as soon as a cloud appears over San Francisco Bay - has made the route hugely unreliable.

I fly into SJC unless I absolutely need to be in the city for business (even meeting clients in places like San Mateo, Redwood City, etc), because you cannot depend on the LAX-SFO flights to get you in anywhere near scheduled time. They weren't great when the route was all mainline either, but I can't tell you how many meetings I've missed or had to reschedule since the route went all Eagle.


The reasons you state has pushed me towards DL on this route. AA is my first preferred airline, however out here in the west Delta is more and more becoming the airline that I use do you do they are easy northwest flow.

I wish AA what are me to focus Citi at SFO once they drop the San Jose experiment. It’s north and south flow that I have a problem with stuff I can’t use LAX Are go through Phoenix on. SFO should’ve always been a small focus city, even with the huge United hub there due to the American Airlines trans cons that are still barely hanging on out of San Francisco even to this day.

AA should be using some of those LAX San Francisco flights to do a stop and then bounce up to Seattle Portland and other places up north. Similar to how Southwest does it
 
chonetsao
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:43 pm

I think AA is quietly agreeing with majority of frequent flyers that LGA is more preferred Airport among NY3. (OK EWR people should relax as AA was never an EWR major player)

But the cut in LAX is concerning. I wonder if AA thinks the B738MAX grounding will last until next March now.
 
chonetsao
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:45 pm

grbauc wrote:
jsnww81 wrote:
*AA LAX-SFO OCT 11>8[12] NOV 11>8[10] DEC 11>8[10] JAN 11>8[9] FEB 11>8[10] MAR 11>8[10]


Hopefully this means a bit more mainline coming back to the route in exchange for frequencies? The route went all E175 back in 2015-16 but since then 1-2 mainline rotations have crept back in. Having to bus out to the Eagle's Nest for a regional jet flight - which American will inevitably sacrifice on the altar of flow control as soon as a cloud appears over San Francisco Bay - has made the route hugely unreliable.

I fly into SJC unless I absolutely need to be in the city for business (even meeting clients in places like San Mateo, Redwood City, etc), because you cannot depend on the LAX-SFO flights to get you in anywhere near scheduled time. They weren't great when the route was all mainline either, but I can't tell you how many meetings I've missed or had to reschedule since the route went all Eagle.


The reasons you state has pushed me towards DL on this route. AA is my first preferred airline, however out here in the west Delta is more and more becoming the airline that I use do you do they are easy northwest flow.

I wish AA what are me to focus Citi at SFO once they drop the San Jose experiment. It’s north and south flow that I have a problem with stuff I can’t use LAX Are go through Phoenix on. SFO should’ve always been a small focus city, even with the huge United hub there due to the American Airlines trans cons that are still barely hanging on out of San Francisco even to this day.

AA should be using some of those LAX San Francisco flights to do a stop and then bounce up to Seattle Portland and other places up north. Similar to how Southwest does it


I think AA may wish to keep the space for Alaska Airlines. Both airline may expecting further cooperation in near future when the restrictions of Alaska Airlines and Virgin America merger wade off.
 
santi319
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:29 pm

Wonder if the MEX slots that B6 is abandoning will be up for grabs. I could see F9 or NK trying to get them. Specially F9 with their Volaris Codeshare
 
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:57 pm

santi319 wrote:
Wonder if the MEX slots that B6 is abandoning will be up for grabs. I could see F9 or NK trying to get them. Specially F9 with their Volaris Codeshare

You do realize that wn has cut all it's Mex flights already right? And no one has grabbed those slots yet. If your airline wants to go to mex and lose a bunch of money, they are free to do so.
 
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jbpdx
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:18 pm

chonetsao wrote:
grbauc wrote:
AA should be using some of those LAX San Francisco flights to do a stop and then bounce up to Seattle Portland and other places up north. Similar to how Southwest does it


I think AA may wish to keep the space for Alaska Airlines. Both airline may expecting further cooperation in near future when the restrictions of Alaska Airlines and Virgin America merger wade off.


There are already ~18 flights a day each way between PDX and LAX and ~18 flights a day each way between PDX and SFO. (About 30 a day if you include SJC and OAK, and 30 a day if you include BUR, ONT, LGB and SNA.) As for Alaska, they’ve been cutting back cooperation with American not increasing it.
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grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:38 pm

jbpdx wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
grbauc wrote:
AA should be using some of those LAX San Francisco flights to do a stop and then bounce up to Seattle Portland and other places up north. Similar to how Southwest does it


I think AA may wish to keep the space for Alaska Airlines. Both airline may expecting further cooperation in near future when the restrictions of Alaska Airlines and Virgin America merger wade off.


There are already ~18 flights a day each way between PDX and LAX and ~18 flights a day each way between PDX and SFO. (About 30 a day if you include SJC and OAK, and 30 a day if you include BUR, ONT, LGB and SNA.) As for Alaska, they’ve been cutting back cooperation with American not increasing it.



Yup it’s super competitive Delta has stepped in in the last 6 to 8 years you are Southwest Airlines Alaska Airlines and Delta and If AA is just going to concede it like jfk it will dwindle down. American Airlines has drawn the line on international travel out of LAX but they also need to domestic also. DL is looking to take Lax also.
AA East west is good north south not so.
 
iyerhari
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:00 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Winners, losers

Winners:
LGA: seems to be taking up JFK’s flights on AA!
DCA: significant expansion from AA!
SEA: great expansion from DL and AS to BOI, SFO, TUS, BOS, and more.
AUS: 4 NK flights made daily.
PWM: Nonstop 9K flights to BOS, connections with B6

Losers:
JFK: How does an AA “hub” manage to only have one daily flight to another hub, even when it’s one of the most crowded routes in the US?
PHL: Two TATLs (AMS, CDG) moved to less than daily.

And the I cannot begin to understand award goes to... ORD! (Honestly though, there are probably so many changes that half the AA destinations changed over the course of a week.)

Thank you enilrea as always for all your effort. This is AA at JFK assuming all these cuts are permanent.

AA hubs: CLT, PHX, DFW, LAX, MIA, ORD (one flight)
International: CDG, LHR, BCN, MXP, MAD, EZE, GRU
Flights hanging like a leaf to check the box and potential to be retrenched anytime soon: BOS
Other domestic AA destinations: AUS, LAS, SAT, SFO
Caribbean destinations - nobody knows how long any of this may last thanks to B6: CUN, BDA, ANU, STT
AAE destinations: CLE, CVG, IND, YUL, BNA, ORF, PIT, RDU, RIC, YYZ

I believe AA maybe bigger at BOS than JFK. Kudos to B6 and DL.
 
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chepos
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OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:09 am

iyerhari wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Winners, losers

Winners:
LGA: seems to be taking up JFK’s flights on AA!
DCA: significant expansion from AA!
SEA: great expansion from DL and AS to BOI, SFO, TUS, BOS, and more.
AUS: 4 NK flights made daily.
PWM: Nonstop 9K flights to BOS, connections with B6

Losers:
JFK: How does an AA “hub” manage to only have one daily flight to another hub, even when it’s one of the most crowded routes in the US?
PHL: Two TATLs (AMS, CDG) moved to less than daily.

And the I cannot begin to understand award goes to... ORD! (Honestly though, there are probably so many changes that half the AA destinations changed over the course of a week.)

Thank you enilrea as always for all your effort. This is AA at JFK assuming all these cuts are permanent.

AA hubs: CLT, PHX, DFW, LAX, MIA, ORD (one flight)
International: CDG, LHR, BCN, MXP, MAD, EZE, GRU
Flights hanging like a leaf to check the box and potential to be retrenched anytime soon: BOS
Other domestic AA destinations: AUS, LAS, SAT, SFO
Caribbean destinations - nobody knows how long any of this may last thanks to B6: CUN, BDA, ANU, STT
AAE destinations: CLE, CVG, IND, YUL, BNA, ORF, PIT, RDU, RIC, YYZ

I believe AA maybe bigger at BOS than JFK. Kudos to B6 and DL.


You forgot, FCO, GIG, EGE, PUJ and SKB - seasonal service

GEO - year round, which starts in December.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Last edited by chepos on Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
continental004
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:10 am

Love seeing another US-PTP option open up.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:20 am

FATFlyer wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
For AA’s ORD-CHS/ERI/RNO/BOI cuts, they appear to be seasonal. OAK on the other hand, I wonder?

Thanks for this as always.


I agree they could be seasonal cuts although we cannot be sure until next year.

But looking at last year, the June 17, 2018 OAG thread shows ORD-CHS/RNO/BOI all being cut last year. But those routes returned. So last year these were seasonal cuts. Could be the same this year.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1396827

enilria wrote:
AA CHS-ORD JAN 1.0>0.2[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0]

CHS-ORD ran last year, as noted. They may have dropped it and added it back.

iyerhari wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Winners, losers

Winners:
LGA: seems to be taking up JFK’s flights on AA!
DCA: significant expansion from AA!
SEA: great expansion from DL and AS to BOI, SFO, TUS, BOS, and more.
AUS: 4 NK flights made daily.
PWM: Nonstop 9K flights to BOS, connections with B6

Losers:
JFK: How does an AA “hub” manage to only have one daily flight to another hub, even when it’s one of the most crowded routes in the US?
PHL: Two TATLs (AMS, CDG) moved to less than daily.

And the I cannot begin to understand award goes to... ORD! (Honestly though, there are probably so many changes that half the AA destinations changed over the course of a week.)

Thank you enilrea as always for all your effort. This is AA at JFK assuming all these cuts are permanent.

AA hubs: CLT, PHX, DFW, LAX, MIA, ORD (one flight)
International: CDG, LHR, BCN, MXP, MAD, EZE, GRU
Flights hanging like a leaf to check the box and potential to be retrenched anytime soon: BOS
Other domestic AA destinations: AUS, LAS, SAT, SFO
Caribbean destinations - nobody knows how long any of this may last thanks to B6: CUN, BDA, ANU, STT
AAE destinations: CLE, CVG, IND, YUL, BNA, ORF, PIT, RDU, RIC, YYZ

I believe AA maybe bigger at BOS than JFK. Kudos to B6 and DL.
knope2001 wrote:
Thanks as aways, enilria!

enilria wrote:
*3E DSI-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]
*3E JBR-MKL JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]


Air Choice One is adding unsubsidized Thurs/Fri/Sun/Mon service to Destin by adjusting the subsidized JBR-STL schedule to free up an aircraft for several hours to run JBR-MKL-DSI and back. It was only announced about 2 weeks prior to the start of service (July 4).

https://www.airchoiceone.com/air-choice ... n-florida/

Given that the flights are on Caravans it's no surprise they are slow...the one-way trip is 2.5 hours from Jackson and (with the added top to / stop in Jackson) 3.5 hours from Jonesboro. Also perhaps not surpring is that fares for these unsubsidized flights are high. Nonrefundable prices start at $204.25 one way from Jackson and $236.50 one way from Jonesboro. Then again many of the same dates these Destin flights operate this summer the one-way fare Southwest has from STL to ECP is over $200 as well.

I give Air Choice One credit for looking to diversify. The smallest-city EAS markets have grown much more competitive in the past 18-30 months or so. Boutique has been joined by Southern, Cape and Advanced Air as carriers more aggressivley bidding for 9-seat EAS markets in wider parts of the country. Some communities who have traditionally been happy with their nine-seat EAS carrier have opted for new blood when the contract came up instead of the status quo A few markets have gone with the Alternate EAS route which usually brings in a larger aircraft but with lower and/or seasonally adjusted frequency. And Skywest continues to hover looking to snatch up 9-seat EAS markets they can find a way to bring in a less-frequent CRJ for similar or lower subsidy. So I think there's danger for these low-tier EAS carriers to be bid out of their reason for existance if they lose an award or two.

Of course an obvious, valid question is if you're going to try something like this why not do Destin from someplace bigger like Little Rock or Memphis, Jonesboro and Jackson can barely support their subsidized EAS service. But if you look at the factors this may not be as dumb as it seems.

--They only need 27 passengers per week each way to hit 75% full, so it's not a whole lot of people.

--That small cities which have failed to support traditional commuter service can (suprisingly) fill hundreds of weekly seats on direct flights to places like Florida and Vegas has been proven over and over by Allegiant. Obviuosly very, very different dynamics and business models in play but it counters the stereotype of smaller communities generating next to zero air traffic.

--Because Air Choice One already serves Jonesboro and Jackson the added airport costs are minimal. Operating out of a new airport like Little Rock or Memphis would add significant cost.

--Air Choice One is already known in JBR and MKL and has marketed themselves in those two communities for a few years. They are an absolute unknown in places like LIttle Rock or Memphis. Perhaps even more important the segment of local residents who do travel by air sometimes (even if it is not a huge portion) use Air Chioce One now and are likely the best customers for these new Destin flights. Again, they'd have nothing similar in Little Rock or Memphis and would struggle to have anything similar.

I'm certainly not saying these will necessarily be successful, but after giving it some thought it's not as off the wall as it first seemed.

Always good info. Thanks
 
jplatts
Posts: 2514
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:37 am

ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
*AA DFW-OAK DEC 1.0>0.1[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0]


And DFW-OAK has been all over the map ever since it started. IIRC, it quickly jumped to twice daily and ever since has been a seesaw of frequency adjustments. Seems like they could at least make an E175 work if mainline is too much capacity to fill.


AA also already serves SFO and SJC in the San Francisco Bay Area nonstop from DFW. In addition, there are many travelers in the San Francisco Bay Area who prefer to fly on UA or WN since UA has a hub at SFO and WN has focus cities at both OAK and SJC.
 
JohnAudiR18
Posts: 18
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:37 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:06 am

*sighs and twiddles thumbs* still no AA ORD-GFK or DFW-GFK, at least no reductions to FAR on AA
 
ctrabs0114
Posts: 838
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:09 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:14 am

tphuang wrote:
*AA LAX-SFO OCT 11>8[12] NOV 11>8[10] DEC 11>8[10] JAN 11>8[9] FEB 11>8[10] MAR 11>8[10]

are they upgauging LAX? Quite a bit of reduction going on.

Did a dummy booking for LAX-SFO in mid-March: 4 mainline (3x 738, 1x 319) and 4 regional (Compass E75) both directions. Compare to mid-July, where it's 5 E175 regionals and 3 mainline (2x A319, 1x A321), and you could argue there's increased seat capacity in March with one of the Compass regionals upgauged to mainline.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), 739 (DL), 712 (DL)
Next: AA: DFW-PHL (752), PHL-MIA (763), MIA-LAX (77W), LAX-DFW (789)
 
RJNUT
Posts: 1764
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 1999 1:58 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/23/2019:AA Suspends ORD-RNO/ERI/BOI/CHS;DFW-OAK;AF Adds MIA-PTP;DL Increases BOS/SEA

Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:17 am

regarding the Air Choice One service to DSI, I have heard Destin sometimes referred to as Little Memphis. so these outlying communities just outside of MEM should probably respond pretty well

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