TryToFlySomeday
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U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:26 pm

https://www.incpak.com/business/pia-to- ... -new-york/

Sounds like PK is trying to start ISB-JFK. TSA visiting Pakistan’s Islamabad Airport during July 17-18.
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
LH658
Posts: 1049
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:35 am

Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:50 pm

Nice to hear, hopefully PIA can update their cabins. Great to see TSA/Homeland Security touring Pakistani airports. Hopefully the new ISB airport qualifies. Hopefully before the year end we can grab another international carrier to Pakistan.
 
Adipocere
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:33 pm

Would be fantastic if CBP setup pre-clearance at ISB in anticipation of more flights - maybe the US3 will jump in..
 
FlyHappy
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:42 pm

Adipocere wrote:
Would be fantastic if CBP setup pre-clearance at ISB in anticipation of more flights - maybe the US3 will jump in..


Uh no.
Don't hold your breath on preclearance, it will be a very long time before that is remotely viable.
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:20 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Would be fantastic if CBP setup pre-clearance at ISB in anticipation of more flights - maybe the US3 will jump in..


Uh no.
Don't hold your breath on preclearance, it will be a very long time before that is remotely viable.

The only one of the US3 that COULD make at least ONE Pakistani city work is UA from EWR, a la how they used to run their nonstops to India (DEL and BOM).

I wouldn’t hold my breath on UA coming to ISB. The only scenario I see that possible is if LH comes to Pakistan and then starts carrying alot of American traffic from ISB via FRA, and I mean alot.
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 12324
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:22 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Would be fantastic if CBP setup pre-clearance at ISB in anticipation of more flights - maybe the US3 will jump in..

Uh no.
Don't hold your breath on preclearance, it will be a very long time before that is remotely viable.

...why?

Contrary to popular belief, preclearance was in part conceived to service marginal/questionable/fringe destinations. The concept evolved into servicing areas based on mass US throughput.

But using it in the likes of Pakistan actually falls right under the umbrella of its original concept.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
IndyHoosier
Posts: 75
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:31 pm

Adipocere wrote:
Would be fantastic if CBP setup pre-clearance at ISB in anticipation of more flights - maybe the US3 will jump in..


:lol: Not happening anytime remotely soon.
 
TryToFlySomeday
Topic Author
Posts: 306
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:57 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Would be fantastic if CBP setup pre-clearance at ISB in anticipation of more flights - maybe the US3 will jump in..

Uh no.
Don't hold your breath on preclearance, it will be a very long time before that is remotely viable.

...why?

Contrary to popular belief, preclearance was in part conceived to service marginal/questionable/fringe destinations. The concept evolved into servicing areas based on mass US throughput.

But using it in the likes of Pakistan actually falls right under the umbrella of its original concept.

Ah, I see. This is why they have preclearance in AUH, right?
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
FlyHappy
Posts: 1036
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 1:06 pm

Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:03 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Would be fantastic if CBP setup pre-clearance at ISB in anticipation of more flights - maybe the US3 will jump in..

Uh no.
Don't hold your breath on preclearance, it will be a very long time before that is remotely viable.

...why?

Contrary to popular belief, preclearance was in part conceived to service marginal/questionable/fringe destinations. The concept evolved into servicing areas based on mass US throughput.

But using it in the likes of Pakistan actually falls right under the umbrella of its original concept.


and the PC was conceived to type letters, replacing typewriters.
let's see, of the measly 6 countries with current CBP preclearance facilities, only Ireland and UAE are remotely distant in either distance or culture. None of the others (Carribeans/Canada) fall into your historical reference of preclearance as a way to "spot criminal threats before they enter" .

So lets just agree (shall we?) that preclearance for Islamabad, Pakistan before, ummmmmm.... hmmmmmm..... , about 1000 other locations is very unlikely.

How about we just see if if anyone can keep an ISB-JFK flight operational for more than a year, first?
 
YYZORD
Posts: 296
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:05 pm

The US shouldn't allow PK to fly to America, such a horrible airline it is!
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Posts: 306
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:19 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
Uh no.
Don't hold your breath on preclearance, it will be a very long time before that is remotely viable.

...why?

Contrary to popular belief, preclearance was in part conceived to service marginal/questionable/fringe destinations. The concept evolved into servicing areas based on mass US throughput.

But using it in the likes of Pakistan actually falls right under the umbrella of its original concept.


and the PC was conceived to type letters, replacing typewriters.
let's see, of the measly 6 countries with current CBP preclearance facilities, only Ireland and UAE are remotely distant in either distance or culture. None of the others (Carribeans/Canada) fall into your historical reference of preclearance as a way to "spot criminal threats before they enter" .

So lets just agree (shall we?) that preclearance for Islamabad, Pakistan before, ummmmmm.... hmmmmmm..... , about 1000 other locations is very unlikely.

How about we just see if if anyone can keep an ISB-JFK flight operational for more than a year, first?

ISB-JFK would likely be operational for more than a year, most likely.

YYZ is successful because it is nonstop from Pakistan. JFK would receive relative success because of the same fact - it would be nonstop from Pakistan.

I always argued PK failed in JFK because it stopped in MAN on the way from LHE. Now that they're planning to do it it nonstop from ISB, they're going to do slightly better.

YYZORD wrote:
The US shouldn't allow PK to fly to America, such a horrible airline it is!


Yeah, and horrible airlines shouldn't get to fly to America at all. Oh wait... *AI flies to ORD and JFK from DEL, and they have similar service to PK*
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
LH658
Posts: 1049
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:35 am

Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:46 pm

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
...why?

Contrary to popular belief, preclearance was in part conceived to service marginal/questionable/fringe destinations. The concept evolved into servicing areas based on mass US throughput.

But using it in the likes of Pakistan actually falls right under the umbrella of its original concept.


and the PC was conceived to type letters, replacing typewriters.
let's see, of the measly 6 countries with current CBP preclearance facilities, only Ireland and UAE are remotely distant in either distance or culture. None of the others (Carribeans/Canada) fall into your historical reference of preclearance as a way to "spot criminal threats before they enter" .

So lets just agree (shall we?) that preclearance for Islamabad, Pakistan before, ummmmmm.... hmmmmmm..... , about 1000 other locations is very unlikely.

How about we just see if if anyone can keep an ISB-JFK flight operational for more than a year, first?

ISB-JFK would likely be operational for more than a year, most likely.

YYZ is successful because it is nonstop from Pakistan. JFK would receive relative success because of the same fact - it would be nonstop from Pakistan.

I always argued PK failed in JFK because it stopped in MAN on the way from LHE. Now that they're planning to do it it nonstop from ISB, they're going to do slightly better.

YYZORD wrote:
The US shouldn't allow PK to fly to America, such a horrible airline it is!


Yeah, and horrible airlines shouldn't get to fly to America at all. Oh wait... *AI flies to ORD and JFK from DEL, and they have similar service to PK*


CBP works at AUH cause it different crowd you have VFR and also american tourist are roaming the Middle East south and Southeast Asia that returning back to the USA. UAE airports are updated and have the latest technology etc. CBP facility in ISB would be expensive as the American staff need housing etc, and housing cost in ISB is expensive.

Problem was PK had 1 way flight MAN - JFK, I wonder if they flew both ways JFK - MAN - LHE - MAN - JFK, would the flight make money as pax going to Manchester and back to JFK could book a round trip flight.

If PIA can update their cabins, and IFE, that would be lovely. Only time I would book PIA direct from North America or Europe would only be in emergency. I always prefer fly 1 stop, then head to PK.
 
LH658
Posts: 1049
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:35 am

Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:48 pm

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
...why?

Contrary to popular belief, preclearance was in part conceived to service marginal/questionable/fringe destinations. The concept evolved into servicing areas based on mass US throughput.

But using it in the likes of Pakistan actually falls right under the umbrella of its original concept.


and the PC was conceived to type letters, replacing typewriters.
let's see, of the measly 6 countries with current CBP preclearance facilities, only Ireland and UAE are remotely distant in either distance or culture. None of the others (Carribeans/Canada) fall into your historical reference of preclearance as a way to "spot criminal threats before they enter" .

So lets just agree (shall we?) that preclearance for Islamabad, Pakistan before, ummmmmm.... hmmmmmm..... , about 1000 other locations is very unlikely.

How about we just see if if anyone can keep an ISB-JFK flight operational for more than a year, first?

ISB-JFK would likely be operational for more than a year, most likely.

YYZ is successful because it is nonstop from Pakistan. JFK would receive relative success because of the same fact - it would be nonstop from Pakistan.

I always argued PK failed in JFK because it stopped in MAN on the way from LHE. Now that they're planning to do it it nonstop from ISB, they're going to do slightly better.

YYZORD wrote:
The US shouldn't allow PK to fly to America, such a horrible airline it is!


Yeah, and horrible airlines shouldn't get to fly to America at all. Oh wait... *AI flies to ORD and JFK from DEL, and they have similar service to PK*


Flying with AI can be pain yes, though atleast they have fleet of new planes, 777 and 787 coming to North America, with actual lie flat seat in business, and first class.
 
LH658
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Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:35 am

Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:49 pm

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Would be fantastic if CBP setup pre-clearance at ISB in anticipation of more flights - maybe the US3 will jump in..


Uh no.
Don't hold your breath on preclearance, it will be a very long time before that is remotely viable.

The only one of the US3 that COULD make at least ONE Pakistani city work is UA from EWR, a la how they used to run their nonstops to India (DEL and BOM).

I wouldn’t hold my breath on UA coming to ISB. The only scenario I see that possible is if LH comes to Pakistan and then starts carrying alot of American traffic from ISB via FRA, and I mean alot.


If Pakistan continues with progress with PM Khan and no disruptions etc, then yeah maybe within 10 years you could see American carrier flying there. Though for now if LH restarts, UA would just funnel PAX via UA, and AA would do same via QR or BA.
 
LH658
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:54 pm

Pakistan to JFK can work with minimum of 3 weekly flights, though so max capacity with BA, TK, QR, EK, EY, and Kuwait Airways, their gunna be a price war for sure. Hopefully PK can manage.
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:17 pm

LH658 wrote:
Pakistan to JFK can work with minimum of 3 weekly flights, though so max capacity with BA, TK, QR, EK, EY, and Kuwait Airways, their gunna be a price war for sure. Hopefully PK can manage.


Please proofread your posts before hitting the submit button.
Whatever
 
MalevTU134
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:24 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Would be fantastic if CBP setup pre-clearance at ISB in anticipation of more flights - maybe the US3 will jump in..

Uh no.
Don't hold your breath on preclearance, it will be a very long time before that is remotely viable.

...why?

Contrary to popular belief, preclearance was in part conceived to service marginal/questionable/fringe destinations. The concept evolved into servicing areas based on mass US throughput.

But using it in the likes of Pakistan actually falls right under the umbrella of its original concept.

So, if the BA crew and flight has to be "guarded" using extreme measures at ISB, imagine what risk not only a US airline crew, but US Government employees would run. Now, all the PakFan boys here will come out and state how this is ridiculous and how Pakistan is absolutely safe, just like Finland or something...but reasonable minds know better. In short: little gain but huge risk in putting US preclearance in Pakistan. Not going to happen.
 
MalevTU134
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Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:30 pm

FriscoHeavy wrote:
LH658 wrote:
Pakistan to JFK can work with minimum of 3 weekly flights, though so max capacity with BA, TK, QR, EK, EY, and Kuwait Airways, their gunna be a price war for sure. Hopefully PK can manage.


Please proofread your posts before hitting the submit button.

That is the least of that poster's issues.
 
TryToFlySomeday
Topic Author
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:06 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
Uh no.
Don't hold your breath on preclearance, it will be a very long time before that is remotely viable.

...why?

Contrary to popular belief, preclearance was in part conceived to service marginal/questionable/fringe destinations. The concept evolved into servicing areas based on mass US throughput.

But using it in the likes of Pakistan actually falls right under the umbrella of its original concept.

So, if the BA crew and flight has to be "guarded" using extreme measures at ISB, imagine what risk not only a US airline crew, but US Government employees would run. Now, all the PakFan boys here will come out and state how this is ridiculous and how Pakistan is absolutely safe, just like Finland or something...but reasonable minds know better. In short: little gain but huge risk in putting US preclearance in Pakistan. Not going to happen.

I understand your point, however, let us remember airlines play this game for money. The investments for security that BA is making will pay off in the end as Pakistan is quite underserved. I don’t imagine UA will come to Pakistan within the next decade — not at all. However PK coming back to America, is not at all out of the question. Why else is TSA coming to Pakistan?
By the way, just to clarify, I still think Pakistan has a long way to go. They’ve come a long way, but still need some more time
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2091
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:10 pm

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
...why?

Contrary to popular belief, preclearance was in part conceived to service marginal/questionable/fringe destinations. The concept evolved into servicing areas based on mass US throughput.

But using it in the likes of Pakistan actually falls right under the umbrella of its original concept.

So, if the BA crew and flight has to be "guarded" using extreme measures at ISB, imagine what risk not only a US airline crew, but US Government employees would run. Now, all the PakFan boys here will come out and state how this is ridiculous and how Pakistan is absolutely safe, just like Finland or something...but reasonable minds know better. In short: little gain but huge risk in putting US preclearance in Pakistan. Not going to happen.

I understand your point, however, let us remember airlines play this game for money. The investments for security that BA is making will pay off in the end as Pakistan is quite underserved. I don’t imagine UA will come to Pakistan within the next decade — not at all. However PK coming back to America, is not at all out of the question. Why else is TSA coming to Pakistan?

Sure, but airlines don't pay for CBP preclearance. At least not directly. The host country's government foots the bill. Anyhow, my point was that I don't see the CBP putting their employees in harm's way in Pakistan, for a handful of flights.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:18 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
So, if the BA crew and flight has to be "guarded" using extreme measures at ISB, imagine what risk not only a US airline crew, but US Government employees would run. Now, all the PakFan boys here will come out and state how this is ridiculous and how Pakistan is absolutely safe, just like Finland or something...but reasonable minds know better. In short: little gain but huge risk in putting US preclearance in Pakistan. Not going to happen.

I understand your point, however, let us remember airlines play this game for money. The investments for security that BA is making will pay off in the end as Pakistan is quite underserved. I don’t imagine UA will come to Pakistan within the next decade — not at all. However PK coming back to America, is not at all out of the question. Why else is TSA coming to Pakistan?

Sure, but airlines don't pay for CBP preclearance. At least not directly. The host country's government foots the bill. Anyhow, my point was that I don't see the CBP putting their employees in harm's way in Pakistan, for a handful of flights.


I think that’s right. Even where preclearance was prophylactic (Ireland in the early days), it was in a relatively safe, liberal country. Not so in Pakistan in 2019, though we all probably hope Pakistan gets there.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
TryToFlySomeday
Topic Author
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:25 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
So, if the BA crew and flight has to be "guarded" using extreme measures at ISB, imagine what risk not only a US airline crew, but US Government employees would run. Now, all the PakFan boys here will come out and state how this is ridiculous and how Pakistan is absolutely safe, just like Finland or something...but reasonable minds know better. In short: little gain but huge risk in putting US preclearance in Pakistan. Not going to happen.

I understand your point, however, let us remember airlines play this game for money. The investments for security that BA is making will pay off in the end as Pakistan is quite underserved. I don’t imagine UA will come to Pakistan within the next decade — not at all. However PK coming back to America, is not at all out of the question. Why else is TSA coming to Pakistan?

Sure, but airlines don't pay for CBP preclearance. At least not directly. The host country's government foots the bill. Anyhow, my point was that I don't see the CBP putting their employees in harm's way in Pakistan, for a handful of flights.

Ah I see. I didn’t know. I’m still young. Anyways, thanks for the heads up.

Well, I’ll update you about how the TSA visit in ISB goes when I get news about it
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
Adipocere
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:31 pm

Pakistan is a treaty ally of the United States, on the same plane as Japan, Australia, NZ and other major non-NATO allies. This should have drive a lot of military, contractor, CIA and defense traffic out of IAD. IAH area has also had close relations with Pakistan from the days of Charlie Wilson and Joanne Herring. UA could potentially have a go from both IAD and IAH.
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:49 pm

Adipocere wrote:
Pakistan is a treaty ally of the United States, on the same plane as Japan, Australia, NZ and other major non-NATO allies. This should have drive a lot of military, contractor, CIA and defense traffic out of IAD. IAH area has also had close relations with Pakistan from the days of Charlie Wilson and Joanne Herring. UA could potentially have a go from both IAD and IAH.

If UA comes to Pakistan, it will be 10-15 years from now, and from EWR. PK from ISB to JFK could possibly happen this year
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:34 am

FlyHappy wrote:
your historical reference of preclearance as a way to "spot criminal threats before they enter" .

Why do you have that in quotes, as if I said it? :roll:

Anyway, preclearance was conceived initially a response to the 1951 Convention Related to the Status of Refugees. The idea was to have processing centers remotely, to avoid instant claims of asylum and lessen international criminal seizure, on US soil... and hell, this was 64yrs before Trump.

But it's not like you have to take my word for it, simply review the script of the 2004 Oxford Amnesty Lectures, and hear it quoted from the individuals who actually wrote the policy, and defended it against international scorn.

But that aside, getting back to my question (which I'll point out, you ducked)..... why, do you (erroneously) assume that preclearance in Pakistan is somehow not "remotely viable?"
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Antarius
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:53 am

LAX772LR wrote:
But that aside, getting back to my question (which I'll point out, you ducked)..... why, do you (erroneously) assume that preclearance in Pakistan is somehow not "remotely viable?"


Because it makes no sense. PK starts 1 flight per day. Let's assume UA does too. They are not putting pre-clearance in a place that is, still, not allowed to fly to the US... for 2 flights a day.

There are plenty of places where pre-clearance would make sense that would be far higher on the list than ISB.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHTYYZ DEN DOH BLR MAA TXL MEX
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:58 am

Antarius wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
But that aside, getting back to my question (which I'll point out, you ducked)..... why, do you (erroneously) assume that preclearance in Pakistan is somehow not "remotely viable?"


Because it makes no sense. PK starts 1 flight per day. Let's assume UA does too. They are not putting pre-clearance in a place that is, still, not allowed to fly to the US... for 2 flights a day.

There are plenty of places where pre-clearance would make sense that would be far higher on the list than ISB.

Probably true
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
behramjee
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:36 am

There is a lot of incorrect stuff posted above by users so allow me to provide a reality check:

1. PIA's on board product in J and Y class has not been updated since 2007 and nor are there any plans what so ever for this to be improved in 2019 nor 2020. PK's B777 product is actually now way behind Biman and Air India's !

2. The actual demand between Pakistan's main 3 cities and NYC in 2018 was as follows

ISB - 47,000 @ US$ 487 one way
LHE - 76,000 @ US$ 499 one way
KHI - 44,000 @ US$ 518 one way
*Above fares include YQ*

3. PIA's new HitIt reservation system has been a major issue for them as since its adoption in Fall 2017, it has lost its SPA and code share arrangements with all airlines + Expedia / Orbtiz stopped selling them too for this reason. For PIA to have even a remote chance in the U.S. it needs to either go back to Sabre or preferably change from HitIt to Amadeus of which the latter will greatly benefit the airline.

Pakistan is a treaty ally of the United States, on the same plane as Japan, Australia, NZ and other major non-NATO allies. This should have drive a lot of military, contractor, CIA and defense traffic out of IAD. IAH area has also had close relations with Pakistan from the days of Charlie Wilson and Joanne Herring. UA could potentially have a go from both IAD and IAH.


4. This is totally laughable as the U.S Contractor traffic from IAH and IAD only fly TK, EK and QR to PAK. Also no Pakistani living in IAH will buy 2 seperate tickets i.e. IAH-JFK-IAH on DL/AA and then PK JFK-ISB-JFK. More importantly, the market from IAH is mainly KHI bound and not ISB. The main ISB-USA markets are JFK, IAD and ORD only.

Pakistan to JFK can work with minimum of 3 weekly flights, though so max capacity with BA, TK, QR, EK, EY, and Kuwait Airways, their gunna be a price war for sure. Hopefully PK can manage.


5. No it cannot work as the financial reality is totally opposite. Firstly, a B77L costs US$ 15,500 per hour to operate whilst the flying block time for ISB-JFK is 14 hours 30 minutes approximately. This means the one way total cost to fly the B77L would be $224,750. If even you take cargo of US$ 22,500 one way that means US$ 202,250 / 487 = 415 passengers are required to fly one way to just break even when PK's B77L seat 310 pax. Remember PIA lost US$ 45 million in 2017 (as per officially stated newspaper records) flying to JFK. As per my very optimistic forecast of 3 weekly B77L flights operating ISB-JFK-ISB with 85% seat factor (which in reality would never happen year round), it will still lose US$ 41 million net !

YYZ is successful because it is nonstop from Pakistan. JFK would receive relative success because of the same fact - it would be nonstop from Pakistan.


YYZ does well only from a seat factor point of view and not financial. Financially on a net P/L level, it should be the biggest money losing route on the PIA network due to the route stage length. Remember a lot of free ticket staff travel on YYZ too ever since JFK became offline as staff fly PK to YYZ and then AC/AA beyond on staff rebated tickets to their final destination in U.S.

I wouldn’t hold my breath on UA coming to ISB. The only scenario I see that possible is if LH comes to Pakistan and then starts carrying alot of American traffic from ISB via FRA, and I mean alot.


UA/AA/DL wont be coming to PAK anytime soon nor for a long time. As for LH and AF, they too will lose money flying to PAK but out of the two, AF will lose slightly more than LH due to the higher number of J class pax that LH would be able to attract.

To conclude, operating 3 weekly ISB-JFK-ISB is a waste of a dedicated B777 frame which rather be used to boost frequencies on profitable KSA and UAE services from Northern Pakistan (LHE + ISB).
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:42 am

Antarius wrote:
They are not putting pre-clearance in a place that is, still, not allowed to fly to the US... for 2 flights a day.

Based on what?

AUH was at 3 flights to the USA back when the decision was made to place preclearance there; fastforward by more than a half-decade, and they're at ....(drum roll).... 4.

So what, other than your own arbitrary assessment, is the basis for that conclusion?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:51 am

behramjee wrote:
There is a lot of incorrect stuff posted above by users so allow me to provide a reality check:

1. PIA's on board product in J and Y class has not been updated since 2007 and nor are there any plans what so ever for this to be improved in 2019 nor 2020. PK's B777 product is actually now way behind Biman and Air India's !

2. The actual demand between Pakistan's main 3 cities and NYC in 2018 was as follows

ISB - 47,000 @ US$ 487 one way
LHE - 76,000 @ US$ 499 one way
KHI - 44,000 @ US$ 518 one way
*Above fares include YQ*

3. PIA's new HitIt reservation system has been a major issue for them as since its adoption in Fall 2017, it has lost its SPA and code share arrangements with all airlines + Expedia / Orbtiz stopped selling them too for this reason. For PIA to have even a remote chance in the U.S. it needs to either go back to Sabre or preferably change from HitIt to Amadeus of which the latter will greatly benefit the airline.

Pakistan is a treaty ally of the United States, on the same plane as Japan, Australia, NZ and other major non-NATO allies. This should have drive a lot of military, contractor, CIA and defense traffic out of IAD. IAH area has also had close relations with Pakistan from the days of Charlie Wilson and Joanne Herring. UA could potentially have a go from both IAD and IAH.


4. This is totally laughable as the U.S Contractor traffic from IAH and IAD only fly TK, EK and QR to PAK. Also no Pakistani living in IAH will buy 2 seperate tickets i.e. IAH-JFK-IAH on DL/AA and then PK JFK-ISB-JFK. More importantly, the market from IAH is mainly KHI bound and not ISB. The main ISB-USA markets are JFK, IAD and ORD only.

Pakistan to JFK can work with minimum of 3 weekly flights, though so max capacity with BA, TK, QR, EK, EY, and Kuwait Airways, their gunna be a price war for sure. Hopefully PK can manage.


5. No it cannot work as the financial reality is totally opposite. Firstly, a B77L costs US$ 15,500 per hour to operate whilst the flying block time for ISB-JFK is 14 hours 30 minutes approximately. This means the one way total cost to fly the B77L would be $224,750. If even you take cargo of US$ 22,500 one way that means US$ 202,250 / 487 = 415 passengers are required to fly one way to just break even when PK's B77L seat 310 pax. Remember PIA lost US$ 45 million in 2017 (as per officially stated newspaper records) flying to JFK. As per my very optimistic forecast of 3 weekly B77L flights operating ISB-JFK-ISB with 85% seat factor (which in reality would never happen year round), it will still lose US$ 41 million net !

YYZ is successful because it is nonstop from Pakistan. JFK would receive relative success because of the same fact - it would be nonstop from Pakistan.


YYZ does well only from a seat factor point of view and not financial. Financially on a net P/L level, it should be the biggest money losing route on the PIA network due to the route stage length. Remember a lot of free ticket staff travel on YYZ too ever since JFK became offline as staff fly PK to YYZ and then AC/AA beyond on staff rebated tickets to their final destination in U.S.

I wouldn’t hold my breath on UA coming to ISB. The only scenario I see that possible is if LH comes to Pakistan and then starts carrying alot of American traffic from ISB via FRA, and I mean alot.


UA/AA/DL wont be coming to PAK anytime soon nor for a long time. As for LH and AF, they too will lose money flying to PAK but out of the two, AF will lose slightly more than LH due to the higher number of J class pax that LH would be able to attract.

To conclude, operating 3 weekly ISB-JFK-ISB is a waste of a dedicated B777 frame which rather be used to boost frequencies on profitable KSA and UAE services from Northern Pakistan (LHE + ISB).

Regardless of the feasibility of making money on ISB-JFK on PK, I still think they would do it because, let’s face it, it’s PK. They’re probably thinking about Pakistanis who immigrated to NYC rather than making money
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
Antarius
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:05 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Antarius wrote:
They are not putting pre-clearance in a place that is, still, not allowed to fly to the US... for 2 flights a day.

Based on what?

AUH was at 3 flights to the USA back when the decision was made to place preclearance there; fastforward by more than a half-decade, and they're at ....(drum roll).... 4.

So what, other than your own arbitrary assessment, is the basis for that conclusion?


If you are going to play the "anything is possible " card, then sure they can open pre clearance at ISB, KHI. PIA could also launch hourly service to the USA on a380s after EY buys 49% of them. Possible, right?

You are confusing common sense with "arbitrary assessment".

Finally, the UAE pay for most of the AUH cost. Given Pakistan has forex reserves of a paltry 7 billion, they arent going to blow it on pre-clearance for one flight. Even they, despite years of the PIA clown show, arent that dumb.

But, putting equal value in far fetched possibilities is an arbitrary assessment of the value of time.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHTYYZ DEN DOH BLR MAA TXL MEX
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:42 am

Antarius wrote:
If you are going to play the "anything is possible " card
Antarius wrote:
You are confusing common sense with "arbitrary assessment".

So in other words, you don't have a tangible cost nor precedent basis for that conclusion, and it is indeed only your completely-arbitrary opinion.

...just figured we'd clarify.

But now then, with that established:
The reason I keep bringing it up, is because the process that brought preclearance to AUH also saw a change from previous procedure, in that the host country funded the majority of its costs. This was followed by the amended PreClearance Authorization Act (written out in S.Rept. 114-180) which further paves the way for civilian and military integration in preclearance facilities by allowing for customs in addition to simply immigration... both were also not previously done before. I would argue that the following presentation from Transcom also hints at said potential integration.
https://www.ustranscom.mil/cmd/associat ... ation.pptx

So to spell it out:
In consideration for nonstop flights or any other incentive; the USA suckers Pakistan into paying for a preclearance concept that can handle both military and civilian, then saves a crap-ton of costs by no longer having to fund said ops itself at the old OPRN, which it still uses for both personnel and logistical support within the Centcom region.

Pax flights would be the least of its concerns in this regard, but an obvious beneficiary. I don't expect it to happen in the near term, but assuming the category determination is made in Pakistan's favor, I wouldn't be surprised to see it quickly instituted. But notice I'm taking care to denote that as solely a postulation, and not an expression of fact. You'd do well to learn from that example.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:50 am

Let us see what happens, I guess. TSA will make their visit to ISB on July 17 and July 18. Funny thing is I’ll be down in KHI for a few days prior to that action. Though I come back to ORD on July 16.
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
Antarius
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:01 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Antarius wrote:
If you are going to play the "anything is possible " card
Antarius wrote:
You are confusing common sense with "arbitrary assessment".

So in other words, you don't have a tangible cost nor precedent basis for that conclusion, and it is indeed only your completely-arbitrary opinion.

...just figured we'd clarify.



Just to clarify, you have zero reason to believe it would happen and are wildly speculating. There is absolutely nothing indicating ISB will receive pre clearance - so you are helping propagate rumors.

The onus of justifying the validity of crazy rumors are on the rumor monger.

Shall we discuss chemtrails next?
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHTYYZ DEN DOH BLR MAA TXL MEX
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:05 am

Well I think there are quite a few places in line for preclearance. I’m personally more excited about the fact that a PK bird may land at JFK again. It all depends on TSA though
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
Antarius
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:08 am

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
Well I think there are quite a few places in line for preclearance. I’m personally more excited about the fact that a PK bird may land at JFK again. It all depends on TSA though


The TSA coming to ISB is about reviewing security procedures and protocols for PIA to resume non stop inbound service to the US.

There is nothing to suggest this is anything more than that.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHTYYZ DEN DOH BLR MAA TXL MEX
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 472
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:08 am

I have no clue why everyone is talking about preclearance, its a totally irrelevant point that has nothing to do with TSA. I do hope to see the resumption of PK JFK nonstop flights in the near future.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:10 am

Maybe they will offer TSA Pre-Check?
 
TryToFlySomeday
Topic Author
Posts: 306
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:15 am

sonicruiser wrote:
I have no clue why everyone is talking about preclearance, its a totally irrelevant point that has nothing to do with TSA. I do hope to see the resumption of PK JFK nonstop flights in the near future.

Idk why people were talking about preclearance either. Nice idea, but I don’t think ISB would be prioritized that high. In fact, I’d prioritize them below BOM. (Which if I’m not mistaken, only has AI to EWR.)
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
TryToFlySomeday
Topic Author
Posts: 306
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:18 am

Ziyulu wrote:
Maybe they will offer TSA Pre-Check?

All we can do is speculate on what TSA will potentially do.

Quick q, will TSA train local Pakistanis if ISB is approved for US flights or bring Americans abroad to work at the security station?
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:09 am

LAX772LR wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
your historical reference of preclearance as a way to "spot criminal threats before they enter" .

Why do you have that in quotes, as if I said it? :roll:



Because I am paraphrasing the CDP's own stated purpose for preclearance.

LAX772LR wrote:
Anyway, preclearance was conceived initially a response to the 1951 Convention Related to the Status of Refugees. The idea was to have processing centers remotely, to avoid instant claims of asylum and lessen international criminal seizure, on US soil... and hell, this was 64yrs before Trump.

But it's not like you have to take my word for it, simply review the script of the 2004 Oxford Amnesty Lectures, and hear it quoted from the individuals who actually wrote the policy, and defended it against international scorn.


What does 1951, 2004 or Trump have anything to do with what I said, you said, or what is the actual reality of preclearance today? (answer = nothing)

LAX772LR wrote:
But that aside, getting back to my question (which I'll point out, you ducked)..... why, do you (erroneously) assume that preclearance in Pakistan is somehow not "remotely viable?"


Because its not "remotely viable" due to money, that's why, and thats plainly obvious - and you well know that.
PIA or the Pakistani govt won't be picking up the enormous cost of safely staffing US officers on their soil, but feel free to pull out a 1974 citiation that shows me to be wrong.
Unlike AUH, as you replied to another poster, with their 4 flights per day, their government and airline have deep pockets to invest in preclearance as a attraction (for the airline) to link connecting travelers to the US.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:15 am

Antarius wrote:
Just to clarify, you have zero reason to believe it would happen and are wildly speculating.

Meh, if using clear legislative patterns to suggest a plausible outcome bothers you so badly, you had the option to simply ignore it... but I do realize that butthurt from having twice pointing out that you (whoever you are) are in no position to factually speak as to the feasibility of what I was referencing, one way or the other, compels you to now whine about speculation-- something that occurs every second of every day, on every thread, on this website.


FlyHappy wrote:
Because I am paraphrasing the CDP's own stated purpose for preclearance.

Which is a rather illogical thing to do, when the official objective can be simply looked up... and when one does, they'll see something that directly contradicts your "paraphrase."

The DHS objective of preclearance, as quoted by the Preclearance Authorization Act:

    Preclearance is the process by which CBP officers stationed abroad screen and make admissibility decisions about passengers and their accompanying goods or baggage heading to the U.S. before they leave a foreign port.''\2\ By deploying over 600 customs, immigration, and agriculture specialists to foreign airports, CBP is able to conduct interviews to determine admissibility, capture biometric information for vetting purposes, and thoroughly inspect passengers to prevent terrorists and criminals from boarding planes to the United States.

https://www.congress.gov/congressional- ... report/180



FlyHappy wrote:
Because its not "remotely viable" due to money, that's why, and thats plainly obvious - and you well know that.

Actually, no, I don't... and neither do you. Hence the question in the first place.
You have no idea what the US' acceptable cost assessment is, or is not, for that institution; especially now that the host country can front that cost.

I would argue that aviation ties with Pakistan would be an excellent use of the latter, for the reasons outlined above.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
LH658
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:20 am

Back to topic, Pre clearance, TSA Pre-Check, or American carriers coming to Pakistan right now is not on table at all! It damn obvious how expensive that would be, and I doubt Americans would ever do such thing. Pakistan no Finland correct. TSA coming to review the security arrangements etc, to give a green light for a non stop flight from Pakistan to USA.

Before PK ever returns, it needs to invest on a good on board product, cause I wouldn't fly 16 hours non stop on a appalling 777.
 
Antarius
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:27 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Just to clarify, you have zero reason to believe it would happen and are wildly speculating.

Meh, if using clear legislative patterns to suggest a plausible outcome bothers you so badly, you had the option to simply ignore it... but I do realize that butthurt from having twice pointing out that you (whoever you are) are in no position to factually speak as to the feasibility of what I was referencing, one way or the other, compels you to now whine about speculation-- something that occurs every second of every day, on every thread, on this website.


Hahahaha. You propagate baseless rumors and then argue that we cannot conclusively refute them. Again, there is NO evidence to suggest preclearance is even under consideration at ISB. Cite a source otherwise. If you want to speculate, feel free - when others question your speculation, acting like they have no business doing so, not so much.

That wonderful authoritarian tone you've perfected on this forum may work elsewhere to intimidate, but sorry, time to put some facts behind the bravado.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHTYYZ DEN DOH BLR MAA TXL MEX
 
Antarius
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:48 am

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:
Maybe they will offer TSA Pre-Check?

All we can do is speculate on what TSA will potentially do.

Quick q, will TSA train local Pakistanis if ISB is approved for US flights or bring Americans abroad to work at the security station?


The TSA is inspecting the facilities and procedures to ensure that they meet US acceptable levels. More of an audit and review. They will not be staffing security or anything.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHTYYZ DEN DOH BLR MAA TXL MEX
 
sonicruiser
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:12 am

This is a dumb question but is there a difference between safety vs security audits? ie. PK in this case vs TG/VN for example. Or are they basically evaluated the same way?
 
LH658
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:49 am

Probably audit how the overall airport security entry and exits, ramp security, inside airport security, and also probably if it US bound flight another security check at the boarding gate like QR has at Doha.

Does flights originating in India that are US bound have another security check at the boarding gate?
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:28 pm

LH658 wrote:
Probably audit how the overall airport security entry and exits, ramp security, inside airport security, and also probably if it US bound flight another security check at the boarding gate like QR has at Doha.

Does flights originating in India that are US bound have another security check at the boarding gate?

I’m not sure, though I can ask my in-law (who’s Indian) to ask his dad. He traveled BOM-EWR recently.
Pakistan's aviation sector is coming back. It won't be as strong as our eastern neighbor, nowhere close, but it's going to grow over time. Stand by and watch.

Born to Pakistani parents near ORD; raised and based near ORD.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:46 pm

I don't understand why so many here think pre-clearance will happen. There are many more bigger airports around the world with US service that do not have pre-clearance.
 
AntonioMartin
Posts: 527
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Re: U.S. TSA to visit Pakistan

Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:01 pm

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Would be fantastic if CBP setup pre-clearance at ISB in anticipation of more flights - maybe the US3 will jump in..


Uh no.
Don't hold your breath on preclearance, it will be a very long time before that is remotely viable.

The only one of the US3 that COULD make at least ONE Pakistani city work is UA from EWR, a la how they used to run their nonstops to India (DEL and BOM).

I wouldn’t hold my breath on UA coming to ISB. The only scenario I see that possible is if LH comes to Pakistan and then starts carrying alot of American traffic from ISB via FRA, and I mean alot.

How about Delta from Detroit?

And..I agree with you about best friends Lufthansa and United!

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