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jfklganyc
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:11 pm

Agreed JFK SAN is next. Let’s see if it comes back after the runway
 
ASFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:16 pm

tphuang wrote:
so DAL goes back to 13x daily and cut BLI down to SEA, continue to increase SEA and PDX. oh look, I think PDX is growing again. It's just a matter of time before AS throws in the towel in DAL.


Except the announced expansion never really even began, so they didn't "go back to 13X daily" (which, arguably, is a healthy schedule to the west coast from one airport) - they just pulled back the announced expansion. According to an internal notice, the pullback was because of the uncertainty of the fate of the 2nd gate and not wanting to inconvenience even more people by starting the flights then having to cancel them because of lack of gate space if it's taken away and given to DL for their several daily flights to ATL.
 
jayunited
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:21 pm

enilria wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
COEWR787 wrote:
So looks like UA is pretty much done with service to India come August. I guess AI or LH will now be the Star Alliance choices.


If the political situation in the region stabilizes, UA will restart the EWR-DEL and EWR-BOM flights. They have no competition in the market on nonstops (AI is a Star Alliance member and not likely anyone's first choice) and these are long standing routes that are highly profitable.

If DL really starts I’m not certain they will come back.


Enilria does OAG show EWR-BOM or EWR-DEL on sale in either September or October? I'm curious to know if UA has loaded the flights because we are basically in July now there should be something loaded if what UA posted on Flying Together is true that they intend to resume flying in September.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:42 pm

enilria wrote:
SANFan wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Yep. Altho it appears that PDX and SEA (according to this thread anyway) are still up in the air as far as what happens to DAL in Nov... But SAN & SJC are indeed gone as of Nov and SFO & LAX seem to be reduced so, yeah, DAL appears to be, let's say not prospering for AS! Time for me to analyze the Nov AS skeds again and see what else turns up.

bb


I have to correct myself. SEA and PDX to DAL might very well be staying with what is already published for Nov onward - that is roughly 4x daily for SEA and 3x daily for PDX.

Sorry Enilria, I forgot. I'm just glad I corrected myself before you had to! ;)

bb

Well I think you are right. DAL is up in the air. Even with some stuff continuing they may well just shut it. They need to do a deal to sell the gate access to DL. I asked that AS fan guy to post proof they can’t do that. I don’t think he did or I didn’t see it.

That's a weird thing to ask for proof of. Has anybody ever seen a sublease that allows the subleasee to transfer the lease and make a profit for themselves???
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:27 am

sxf24 wrote:
enilria wrote:
SANFan wrote:

I have to correct myself. SEA and PDX to DAL might very well be staying with what is already published for Nov onward - that is roughly 4x daily for SEA and 3x daily for PDX.

Sorry Enilria, I forgot. I'm just glad I corrected myself before you had to! ;)

bb

Well I think you are right. DAL is up in the air. Even with some stuff continuing they may well just shut it. They need to do a deal to sell the gate access to DL. I asked that AS fan guy to post proof they can’t do that. I don’t think he did or I didn’t see it.


While I greatly enjoy reading these weekly posts, I don’t think you’ve created a special position for yourself where such condescending attitude is justified.

It is not possible to post proof that AS’ sublease with AA prohibits them from “selling” a gate(s) at DAL. However, logic would indicate that you can’t sell or dispose of something that you do not own.

What is a possible outcome is that AS simply wishes to cut its losses and terminate a sublease on one gate. Normally, the head lessee would not allow this since it eliminates their source of income. In this situation, AA may permit or encourage it since there is an opportunity to lease to DL.

As I said in the other thread, gates are pretty much never “owned” by an airline in the USA. Slots legally cannot be owned. That doesn’t mean there have not been dozens of sales and trades of slots/gates in this industry. Just google it. You proclaimed that DAL gates cannot be transferred to another airline for money, colloquially called “sold”, but this is common in the industry. I asked you to provide proof they cannot be sold and you can’t. The only slots or gates that I am aware of that cannot be sold are Air21 slots and DCA beyond perimeter slots. Those are only because there is a law passed by Congress preventing it. Other than that it’s common. That doesn’t mean the sale or transfer doesn’t have to be approved by DOT/DOJ but it’s just false to say that gates/slots cannot be “sold”. Just google it.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:33 am

LHUSA wrote:
enilria wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

If the political situation in the region stabilizes, UA will restart the EWR-DEL and EWR-BOM flights. They have no competition in the market on nonstops (AI is a Star Alliance member and not likely anyone's first choice) and these are long standing routes that are highly profitable.

If DL really starts I’m not certain they will come back.


Shocker, more anti-UA rhetoric from Enilria, so lame. UA has much stronger flow via EWR than DL does out of JFK.

More anti-UA rhetoric? Where is this collection of anti-UA rhetoric? This fanboyism makes me want to just delete airliners.net from my browser.

So UA stopped flying the route, DL is adding the route, but it’s unreasonable of me to say that May replace UA in the NY-India market? Just wow...
 
TWA85
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:38 am

jfklganyc wrote:
Here come the AA transcon cuts at JFK!


I do agree that AA cutting JFK-SEA isn't a great sign for their NYC strategy, however their strategy has been to focus on travelers flying to NYC then returning home (example, XXX-NYC-XXX). With DL having hubs on both ends of the route, AA is at a network disadvantage on the route. Then add in heavy competition from AS, B6, and indirectly UA, and AA's disadvantage grows. What particularly concerns me is that like many other JFK routes, AA has flown this route since the late 90's. 20+ years is an eternity in the airline industry. Have their fortunes truly changed that much since just a few years ago, or have they never been as profitable at JFK as they claimed over the years. I'm curious to see if they will codeshare with AS on the route after it discontinues, or if they are even will be allowed to.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:44 am

United is selling bom in September- I just booked a ticket on the nonstops.


uote="jayunited"]
enilria wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

If the political situation in the region stabilizes, UA will restart the EWR-DEL and EWR-BOM flights. They have no competition in the market on nonstops (AI is a Star Alliance member and not likely anyone's first choice) and these are long standing routes that are highly profitable.

If DL really starts I’m not certain they will come back.


Enilria does OAG show EWR-BOM or EWR-DEL on sale in either September or October? I'm curious to know if UA has loaded the flights because we are basically in July now there should be something loaded if what UA posted on Flying Together is true that they intend to resume flying in September.[/quote]
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:46 am

jasoncrh wrote:
United is selling bom in September- I just booked a ticket on the nonstops.


uote="jayunited"]
enilria wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

If the political situation in the region stabilizes, UA will restart the EWR-DEL and EWR-BOM flights. They have no competition in the market on nonstops (AI is a Star Alliance member and not likely anyone's first choice) and these are long standing routes that are highly profitable.

If DL really starts I’m not certain they will come back.


Enilria does OAG show EWR-BOM or EWR-DEL on sale in either September or October? I'm curious to know if UA has loaded the flights because we are basically in July now there should be something loaded if what UA posted on Flying Together is true that they intend to resume flying in September.
[/quote]
They are still loaded but zeroed out as I understand it.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:50 am

ASFlyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
so DAL goes back to 13x daily and cut BLI down to SEA, continue to increase SEA and PDX. oh look, I think PDX is growing again. It's just a matter of time before AS throws in the towel in DAL.


Except the announced expansion never really even began, so they didn't "go back to 13X daily" (which, arguably, is a healthy schedule to the west coast from one airport) - they just pulled back the announced expansion. According to an internal notice, the pullback was because of the uncertainty of the fate of the 2nd gate and not wanting to inconvenience even more people by starting the flights then having to cancel them because of lack of gate space if it's taken away and given to DL for their several daily flights to ATL.


Of course, the internal notice. Did the internal notice also tell you that these are disastrous routes in terms of financial performance and they'd be better of flying those out of DFW?

I get that people like to support their airline route planner decisions, but these are not being made on the merit of their performance. They are kept around because people up in AS management don't want to give up on a piece of property they picked up in the VX merger. But the longer that merger is behind us, the less incentive they have.

And believe me, the performances to DAL are not going to get any better. There are 2 airlines flying to DAL outside of WN and both of them have better numbers to the same destinations from DFW. Yet, I keep getting told that gates at DAL is some prized property for airlines other than WN.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:10 am

enilria wrote:
[
More anti-UA rhetoric? Where is this collection of anti-UA rhetoric? This fanboyism makes me want to just delete airliners.net from my browser.

So UA stopped flying the route, DL is adding the route, but it’s unreasonable of me to say that May replace UA in the NY-India market? Just wow...

If the airspace is still closed when DL is due to launch then they likely won't launch it. There is no way DL can replace UA to India. Would UA be starting SFO-DEL this winter if they weren't happy with the EWR performance?

enilria wrote:
They are still loaded but zeroed out as I understand it

Taking 5 seconds to search and you'll find you can buy it for $861 RT in Y this September...
 
sxf24
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:24 am

enilria wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Well I think you are right. DAL is up in the air. Even with some stuff continuing they may well just shut it. They need to do a deal to sell the gate access to DL. I asked that AS fan guy to post proof they can’t do that. I don’t think he did or I didn’t see it.


While I greatly enjoy reading these weekly posts, I don’t think you’ve created a special position for yourself where such condescending attitude is justified.

It is not possible to post proof that AS’ sublease with AA prohibits them from “selling” a gate(s) at DAL. However, logic would indicate that you can’t sell or dispose of something that you do not own.

What is a possible outcome is that AS simply wishes to cut its losses and terminate a sublease on one gate. Normally, the head lessee would not allow this since it eliminates their source of income. In this situation, AA may permit or encourage it since there is an opportunity to lease to DL.

As I said in the other thread, gates are pretty much never “owned” by an airline in the USA. Slots legally cannot be owned. That doesn’t mean there have not been dozens of sales and trades of slots/gates in this industry. Just google it. You proclaimed that DAL gates cannot be transferred to another airline for money, colloquially called “sold”, but this is common in the industry. I asked you to provide proof they cannot be sold and you can’t. The only slots or gates that I am aware of that cannot be sold are Air21 slots and DCA beyond perimeter slots. Those are only because there is a law passed by Congress preventing it. Other than that it’s common. That doesn’t mean the sale or transfer doesn’t have to be approved by DOT/DOJ but it’s just false to say that gates/slots cannot be “sold”. Just google it.


You. Can’t. Sell. Or profit from. What. You. Don’t. Control.

If you want to respond and have the last word, that’s fine. I don’t need to be validated by this website.
 
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:12 am

jfklganyc wrote:
Agreed JFK SAN is next. Let’s see if it comes back after the runway

There is a difference between SAN and SEA: AS does not fly SAN-JFK; we have 4 DL n/s and 2 on B6. (AA has 2 competitors here.) My count is 11 n/s SEA-JFK in the summer, not inc AA. And yes, I do realize SEA-JFK is a larger market. I'm hoping AA may hold on to SAN at least for a while.

Finally, all the previous changes to JFK in the past several months have been done to both SEA and SAN at the same time. That didn't happen this time so...

bb
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:33 am

tphuang wrote:
Thanks enilria. Glad to be reading this every Sunday morning!

enilria wrote:
AA ANU-JFK NOV 0.2>0.4[0.1] DEC 0.5>0.9[0.5]
AA CLT-JFK OCT 6>7[6]
*AA JFK-MBJ NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>1.0[0]
AA JFK-MIA OCT 6>7[6] DEC 7>8[6] JAN 7>8[6] FEB 7>8[6] MAR 7>8[6]
AA JFK-ORD OCT 2>3[1.0]
AA JFK-PHX OCT 5>6[4]
**AA JFK-SEA DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0]
*AA JFK-SJO NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>1.0[0]
AA JFK-YUL OCT 1.9>1.0[2]

So AA's new strategy is cut important transcon completely (which I predicted over a year ago on JFK-SEA), more hub flying (within perimeter stuff) and now more leisure routes? I thought Vasu kept saying they are going after business travelers. I guess that didn't work out. JFK-SAN is next.


JetBlue Mint has really been killing American on many routes, excluding LAX and SFO, whose product has gone downhill, especially with American cramming 172 seats onto a B738 in 3 classes - on a plane with an exit door limit of 189 (B6 Mint A321 planes have 159 seats in 3 classes with Mint equivalent to long-haul J, and could theoretically go to 171 and still maintain 32" pitch in Y - on a plane with an exit door limit of 230). Also, AS' adding of a second daily SEA-JFK frequency might have been the final straw.

What is really amazing is that there is only a 4-seat difference between a reconfigured AA A321/new A21N (196 seats with domestic first) and a non-Mint B6 A321/A21N (200 seats in all-economy). B6 having a lower cost structure is going to get the customers who used to fly AA, especially out of JFK. I'm waiting for JFK to be officially downgraded to focus city on AA.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:41 am

SANFan wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Agreed JFK SAN is next. Let’s see if it comes back after the runway

There is a difference between SAN and SEA: AS does not fly SAN-JFK; we have 4 DL n/s and 2 on B6. (AA has 2 competitors here.) My count is 11 n/s SEA-JFK in the summer, not inc AA. And yes, I do realize SEA-JFK is a larger market. I'm hoping AA may hold on to SAN at least for a while.

Finally, all the previous changes to JFK in the past several months have been done to both SEA and SAN at the same time. That didn't happen this time so...

bb

I think the cuts were about DAL. I hear the new leadership is still a fan of SAN. It may just get caught up in changing attitude to other hubs.
sxf24 wrote:
enilria wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

While I greatly enjoy reading these weekly posts, I don’t think you’ve created a special position for yourself where such condescending attitude is justified.

It is not possible to post proof that AS’ sublease with AA prohibits them from “selling” a gate(s) at DAL. However, logic would indicate that you can’t sell or dispose of something that you do not own.

What is a possible outcome is that AS simply wishes to cut its losses and terminate a sublease on one gate. Normally, the head lessee would not allow this since it eliminates their source of income. In this situation, AA may permit or encourage it since there is an opportunity to lease to DL.

As I said in the other thread, gates are pretty much never “owned” by an airline in the USA. Slots legally cannot be owned. That doesn’t mean there have not been dozens of sales and trades of slots/gates in this industry. Just google it. You proclaimed that DAL gates cannot be transferred to another airline for money, colloquially called “sold”, but this is common in the industry. I asked you to provide proof they cannot be sold and you can’t. The only slots or gates that I am aware of that cannot be sold are Air21 slots and DCA beyond perimeter slots. Those are only because there is a law passed by Congress preventing it. Other than that it’s common. That doesn’t mean the sale or transfer doesn’t have to be approved by DOT/DOJ but it’s just false to say that gates/slots cannot be “sold”. Just google it.


You. Can’t. Sell. Or profit from. What. You. Don’t. Control.

If you want to respond and have the last word, that’s fine. I don’t need to be validated by this website.

Just read this. The bank takes your slots and gates if you default. Collateral.
https://www.aerotime.aero/zivile.zalage ... and-routes
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:45 am

Rdh3e wrote:
enilria wrote:
[
More anti-UA rhetoric? Where is this collection of anti-UA rhetoric? This fanboyism makes me want to just delete airliners.net from my browser.

So UA stopped flying the route, DL is adding the route, but it’s unreasonable of me to say that May replace UA in the NY-India market? Just wow...

If the airspace is still closed when DL is due to launch then they likely won't launch it. There is no way DL can replace UA to India. Would UA be starting SFO-DEL this winter if they weren't happy with the EWR performance?

enilria wrote:
They are still loaded but zeroed out as I understand it

Taking 5 seconds to search and you'll find you can buy it for $861 RT in Y this September...

UA will fly it if they can make money or come up with some other justification, DL will fly it if for the same reasons. Both flying it means neither will do as well. It’s just economics. The fares are very low to India. That’s a fact. They were low even before the ME3 came along. It is what it is. Winning and losing in a market like that is a fine line.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:57 am

enilria wrote:
UA will fly it if they can make money or come up with some other justification, DL will fly it if for the same reasons. Both flying it means neither will do as well. It’s just economics. The fares are very low to India. That’s a fact. They were low even before the ME3 came along. It is what it is. Winning and losing in a market like that is a fine line.

There is no need to dig in on this, the position you've taken is bit absurd. You have good insights often, but you're off the reservation here, just like when you said the 737 MAX will never fly again, they are patently indefensible statements.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:10 am

tphuang wrote:
A*C PDX-YYZ AUG 1.0>0.7[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.1[1.0] OCT 0.8>0[0.9]

this seems really weak. If AC can't even make this work during Sep/Oct, are there any demand for this route during off peak seasons?


Any cut at AC at the moment is almost undoubtedly MAX-related. I wouldn’t read too much into seasonal PDX being ended after Labour Day.
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:14 am

enilria wrote:
LF CEC-OAK SEP 0.8>1.3[1.0] NOV 0>0.9[1.0] FEB 0>0.6[1.0]
LF LAS-PGA OCT 0.5>0.8[0] NOV 0>0.5[0.3] DEC 0>0.6[0.4] JAN 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.3[0.4]
LF LAS-SBA OCT 0.5>1.0[0.3] NOV 0>1.0[0.7] DEC 0>1.0[0.6] JAN 0>1.0[0.7] FEB 0>0.6[0.7]
LF LAS-SBP OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.5[0] DEC 0>0.6[0] JAN 0>0.6[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
LF OAK-SBA SEP 0.9>1.8[0] OCT 0>1.4[0.5] NOV 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>0.6[1.0]
LF PGA-PHX OCT 0.5>1.0[1.7] NOV 0>1.0[1.3] DEC 0>1.0[1.2] JAN 0>1.0[1.3] FEB 0>0.6[1.3]
LF PSP-SMF SEP 0>0.5[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.6[0]
LF SBA-SMF SEP 1.0>1.4[0] OCT 0.5>1.7[0] NOV 0>1.6[0] DEC 0>1.6[0] JAN 0>1.7[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]


Interesting to watch Contour carve out their niche. I feel like the more they add, the less risk as they can connect more dots depending on demand.

I do question how putting 30 people on a 50 person plane, especially without commanding a fare premium, is going to be successful in the long run. Pilot costs/availability and lack of replacement equipment are also long term uncertainties.
 
Austin787
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:27 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I'm waiting for JFK to be officially downgraded to focus city on AA.

You don't have to wait any longer. JFK is essentially a focus city for AA, even if they still call it a "hub".
 
Lootess
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:11 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

If the political situation in the region stabilizes, UA will restart the EWR-DEL and EWR-BOM flights. They have no competition in the market on nonstops (AI is a Star Alliance member and not likely anyone's first choice) and these are long standing routes that are highly profitable.

If DL really starts I’m not certain they will come back.


DL had JFK-BOM in 2006 or 2009 not sure exactly when it operated, but it did (EWR-DEL/BOM was already established several years prior) and DL pulled the route. It was flown on a 77L. UA is a very established player in this market.


Incorrect. DL JFK-BOM was the world's first non-stop from New York area.
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:09 am

Austin787 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
I'm waiting for JFK to be officially downgraded to focus city on AA.

You don't have to wait any longer. JFK is essentially a focus city for AA, even if they still call it a "hub".


It's JFK is a OD Gateway since the merger the connection part of the hub Is not needed and or not able to compete due to earlier decisions. ORD/PHL are the connections hubs for the North East >West-connections. CLT is the North South connection hub. PHL is the ATL gateway ORD/PHL are the Northeast US connections hubs. MIA is the South America Gateway hub. DFW mid west Mega Hub East West connection super hub and PHX/LAX are there Western US connections hubs w/LAX a PAC Gateway hub.

With BA moving to AA JFK terminal they can partner easier with there International partner. Not bad coverage of the US.

I don't like there JFK plan but it was done and set in stone awhile ago. Mr. Parker should get some new blood and or leave while on top imop. He's not good at Expansion and I look forward to the next chapter for AA. I'm ready for some new leadership. I like what's he's accomplished and am ready for New.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:24 am

tphuang wrote:
people up in AS management don't want to give up on a piece of property they picked up in the VX merger.


Which is what I began saying on, oh, April 4, 2016. Many here said I was nuts, and that DAL would immediately be gone. As in, day one. I said no, they'd give it at least a few solid years of tinkering, plugging it into the much larger AS network to see what they could make of it first, since that asset is so difficult to come by.

And here we are, three years on, still tinkering with it. They haven't thrown in the towel on DAL yet; maybe they will at some point, but for now, DAL remains connected to all the AS hubs. It's not like the assets couldn't be deployed elsewhere, so clearly they see some opportunity there that you don't.

tphuang wrote:
But the longer that merger is behind us, the less incentive they have.


Perhaps. Perhaps not. Time will tell, but either way, the DAL experiment still goes on for now and all the people here who hyperventilated about DAL not having a place in the network beyond close of the acquisition still haven't admitted they were wrong.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
jasoncrh
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:11 am

You understand incorrectly. As I said, I bought a ticket. $1090 on the nonstop round trip ewr to BOM. They were not zeroed our.

enilria wrote:
jasoncrh wrote:
United is selling bom in September- I just booked a ticket on the nonstops.


uote="jayunited"]
enilria wrote:
If DL really starts I’m not certain they will come back.


Enilria does OAG show EWR-BOM or EWR-DEL on sale in either September or October? I'm curious to know if UA has loaded the flights because we are basically in July now there should be something loaded if what UA posted on Flying Together is true that they intend to resume flying in September.

They are still loaded but zeroed out as I understand it.[/quote]
 
Cointrin330
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:22 am

Lootess wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
enilria wrote:
If DL really starts I’m not certain they will come back.


DL had JFK-BOM in 2006 or 2009 not sure exactly when it operated, but it did (EWR-DEL/BOM was already established several years prior) and DL pulled the route. It was flown on a 77L. UA is a very established player in this market.


Incorrect. DL JFK-BOM was the world's first non-stop from New York area.


LOL. NO. And BOM was definitely not the first destination served nonstop from the NEW YORK AREA either.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:38 am

enilria wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Here come the AA transcon cuts at JFK!

DCA BOS 15 daily on a LCC is a ludicrous waste of slots.

AA/US have done that for decades. Why not an LCC?


Agreed! Plus, B6 services plenty of BOS based business travelers.
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:04 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
LF CEC-OAK SEP 0.8>1.3[1.0] NOV 0>0.9[1.0] FEB 0>0.6[1.0]
LF LAS-PGA OCT 0.5>0.8[0] NOV 0>0.5[0.3] DEC 0>0.6[0.4] JAN 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.3[0.4]
LF LAS-SBA OCT 0.5>1.0[0.3] NOV 0>1.0[0.7] DEC 0>1.0[0.6] JAN 0>1.0[0.7] FEB 0>0.6[0.7]
LF LAS-SBP OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.5[0] DEC 0>0.6[0] JAN 0>0.6[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
LF OAK-SBA SEP 0.9>1.8[0] OCT 0>1.4[0.5] NOV 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>0.6[1.0]
LF PGA-PHX OCT 0.5>1.0[1.7] NOV 0>1.0[1.3] DEC 0>1.0[1.2] JAN 0>1.0[1.3] FEB 0>0.6[1.3]
LF PSP-SMF SEP 0>0.5[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.6[0]
LF SBA-SMF SEP 1.0>1.4[0] OCT 0.5>1.7[0] NOV 0>1.6[0] DEC 0>1.6[0] JAN 0>1.7[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]


Interesting to watch Contour carve out their niche. I feel like the more they add, the less risk as they can connect more dots depending on demand.

I do question how putting 30 people on a 50 person plane, especially without commanding a fare premium, is going to be successful in the long run. Pilot costs/availability and lack of replacement equipment are also long term uncertainties.


They fly E-135's which carry on average 36 pax...not E-145's or even E-140's. LF has a good product, very good seat pitch and great prices.
 
usairways85
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:17 pm

enilria wrote:
F9 LAS-PHL SEP 1.0>1.2[0] OCT 1.0>1.3[0] NOV 0.4>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>0.4[0]
F9 MCO-PHL NOV 1.6>4[3] DEC 0>4[3] JAN 0>4[3] FEB 0>4[3] MAR 0>1.2[3]

LAS must be doing well for them to bump it up to more than daily during the slow season.

And F9 and NK really going at it on PHL-MCO.
 
Lootess
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:41 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Lootess wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

DL had JFK-BOM in 2006 or 2009 not sure exactly when it operated, but it did (EWR-DEL/BOM was already established several years prior) and DL pulled the route. It was flown on a 77L. UA is a very established player in this market.


Incorrect. DL JFK-BOM was the world's first non-stop from New York area.


LOL. NO. And BOM was definitely not the first destination served nonstop from the NEW YORK AREA either.


Nice try.

2006: Delta Makes History with First-Ever Nonstop Service between New York-JFK and Mumbai, India
https://news.delta.com/delta-makes-history-first-ever-nonstop-service-between-new-york-jfk-and-mumbai-india

2007: Continental to fly Mumbai-NY non-stop from Oct 31
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/continental-to-fly-mumbai-ny-non-stop-from-oct-31/articleshow/1731563.cms
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:59 pm

Lootess wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Lootess wrote:

Incorrect. DL JFK-BOM was the world's first non-stop from New York area.


LOL. NO. And BOM was definitely not the first destination served nonstop from the NEW YORK AREA either.


Nice try.

2006: Delta Makes History with First-Ever Nonstop Service between New York-JFK and Mumbai, India
https://news.delta.com/delta-makes-history-first-ever-nonstop-service-between-new-york-jfk-and-mumbai-india

2007: Continental to fly Mumbai-NY non-stop from Oct 31
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/continental-to-fly-mumbai-ny-non-stop-from-oct-31/articleshow/1731563.cms


Derp... Delta's was the first JFK-India, not the first NYC India. Also, CO started Delhi in 2005, BEFORE it started Mumbai. Take a lap.
 
ScottB
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:56 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
According to an internal notice, the pullback was because of the uncertainty of the fate of the 2nd gate and not wanting to inconvenience even more people by starting the flights then having to cancel them because of lack of gate space if it's taken away and given to DL for their several daily flights to ATL.


As I said in the other thread, that's a nice fig leaf for backtracking on an announced expansion. However, if DAL were a strong performer and AS were seeing good advance bookings, you can bet they'd fight hard to maintain exclusive access to that second gate. Pulling the flights less than two months out from the planned start would be disruptive if the flights were doing well, and I think it'd be very easy for AS to make the case that their two gates are "full" with flights beginning next month and that the status quo with DL operating from a WN gate ought to continue.

EA CO AS wrote:
Which is what I began saying on, oh, April 4, 2016. Many here said I was nuts, and that DAL would immediately be gone. As in, day one. I said no, they'd give it at least a few solid years of tinkering, plugging it into the much larger AS network to see what they could make of it first, since that asset is so difficult to come by.

And here we are, three years on, still tinkering with it. They haven't thrown in the towel on DAL yet; maybe they will at some point, but for now, DAL remains connected to all the AS hubs. It's not like the assets couldn't be deployed elsewhere, so clearly they see some opportunity there that you don't.


Eh, I give AS management some credit for trying with DAL and the degradation of the partnership with AA obviously makes DFW less relevant as a connecting point than it was three years ago. However, as with HOU, MDW, and OAK, it's not clear that DAL provides any benefit to carriers not named Southwest. For travelers originating outside the Metroplex, there's not much of a preference for one airport over the other. For D/FW area travelers, WN is so tightly associated with Love Field (as they are with Hobby) that it's incredibly difficult for any other carrier to compete. After all, they were the only airline at DAL for decades.

But the fact is that serving both DAL and DFW saddles AS with the cost of serving both airports (and higher unit costs on the E175s to DAL) without the benefit of higher margins or improved passenger loyalty at the airports they connect to DAL. In 2016 the AA relationship made the DAL flights even more of a head-scratcher, but today that's less of a factor.

Honestly, AA convincing DOT/DOJ to accept the divestiture of assets at DAL as a "remedy" for the anti-competitive effects of the merger with US was a masterstroke. The net effect was the elimination of two competitors at DFW to five (or six?) airports (LAX, SFO, PHX, CLT, PHL, DCA?) and instead subjecting the indirect competitor at DAL to greater competition in key business markets.

enilria wrote:
So UA stopped flying the route, DL is adding the route, but it’s unreasonable of me to say that May replace UA in the NY-India market? Just wow...


Well, UA ostensibly has suspended the EWR-India routes due to issues with traversing Pakistani and Iranian airspace, and the suspensions were sudden enough to make that reasoning quite plausible. UA and predecessor CO have been in those markets for well over a decade and they also benefit from much of the Indian-descent population in the region living on the west side of the Hudson. I think it's highly unlikely that DL will push UA out of EWR-India with its service from JFK.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:00 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
Lootess wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

LOL. NO. And BOM was definitely not the first destination served nonstop from the NEW YORK AREA either.


Nice try.

2006: Delta Makes History with First-Ever Nonstop Service between New York-JFK and Mumbai, India
https://news.delta.com/delta-makes-history-first-ever-nonstop-service-between-new-york-jfk-and-mumbai-india

2007: Continental to fly Mumbai-NY non-stop from Oct 31
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/continental-to-fly-mumbai-ny-non-stop-from-oct-31/articleshow/1731563.cms


Derp... Delta's was the first JFK-India, not the first NYC India. Also, CO started Delhi in 2005, BEFORE it started Mumbai. Take a lap.


Thank you...
 
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
so DAL goes back to 13x daily and cut BLI down to SEA, continue to increase SEA and PDX. oh look, I think PDX is growing again. It's just a matter of time before AS throws in the towel in DAL.


Except the announced expansion never really even began, so they didn't "go back to 13X daily" (which, arguably, is a healthy schedule to the west coast from one airport) - they just pulled back the announced expansion. According to an internal notice, the pullback was because of the uncertainty of the fate of the 2nd gate and not wanting to inconvenience even more people by starting the flights then having to cancel them because of lack of gate space if it's taken away and given to DL for their several daily flights to ATL.


Of course, the internal notice. Did the internal notice also tell you that these are disastrous routes in terms of financial performance and they'd be better of flying those out of DFW?

I get that people like to support their airline route planner decisions, but these are not being made on the merit of their performance. They are kept around because people up in AS management don't want to give up on a piece of property they picked up in the VX merger. But the longer that merger is behind us, the less incentive they have.

And believe me, the performances to DAL are not going to get any better. There are 2 airlines flying to DAL outside of WN and both of them have better numbers to the same destinations from DFW. Yet, I keep getting told that gates at DAL is some prized property for airlines other than WN.


Nope, the internal notice didn't mention that the financial performance is disastrous. I did see, however, that they've reduced SEA-DFW to 2-3x daily for the winter schedule, and SEA-DAL is 4x daily. PDX-DFW is 1x daily and PDX-DAL is 3x daily. LAX and SFO to DFW is 0X daily while LAX and SFO to DAL are each 3x daily. I'm familiar with AS management and, for the most part, they have never been fans of throwing money out the window. Maybe it's just an experiment but with over a year of history flying to both airports, something tells me that AS is hedging their bets on DAL. They'll maintain 13 flights a day from DAL and 3-4 daily from DFW. I'll make sure they know that someone on airliners.net thinks it's a bad idea.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:06 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:

Except the announced expansion never really even began, so they didn't "go back to 13X daily" (which, arguably, is a healthy schedule to the west coast from one airport) - they just pulled back the announced expansion. According to an internal notice, the pullback was because of the uncertainty of the fate of the 2nd gate and not wanting to inconvenience even more people by starting the flights then having to cancel them because of lack of gate space if it's taken away and given to DL for their several daily flights to ATL.


Of course, the internal notice. Did the internal notice also tell you that these are disastrous routes in terms of financial performance and they'd be better of flying those out of DFW?

I get that people like to support their airline route planner decisions, but these are not being made on the merit of their performance. They are kept around because people up in AS management don't want to give up on a piece of property they picked up in the VX merger. But the longer that merger is behind us, the less incentive they have.

And believe me, the performances to DAL are not going to get any better. There are 2 airlines flying to DAL outside of WN and both of them have better numbers to the same destinations from DFW. Yet, I keep getting told that gates at DAL is some prized property for airlines other than WN.


Nope, the internal notice didn't mention that the financial performance is disastrous. I did see, however, that they've reduced SEA-DFW to 2-3x daily for the winter schedule, and SEA-DAL is 4x daily. PDX-DFW is 1x daily and PDX-DAL is 3x daily. LAX and SFO to DFW is 0X daily while LAX and SFO to DAL are each 3x daily. I'm familiar with AS management and, for the most part, they have never been fans of throwing money out the window. Maybe it's just an experiment but with over a year of history flying to both airports, something tells me that AS is hedging their bets on DAL. They'll maintain 13 flights a day from DAL and 3-4 daily from DFW. I'll make sure they know that someone on airliners.net thinks it's a bad idea.


Check above, even EA CO AS doesn't deny my point on the yield and financial performance. Because the fare data and LF is public and out there for everyone to see. I've even posted some numbers in the thread for this. They are certainly free to chose how they deploy capacity across the network and you can laugh at me as an arm chair qb all you want. But the numbers are out there for everyone to see.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:30 pm

tphuang wrote:
even EA CO AS doesn't deny my point on the yield and financial performance.


I also pointed out how the equipment going to DAL could very easily be deployed elsewhere, so clearly these people - who, I might remind you, do this for a living - see something in DAL that you do not. You'll understand my inclination to give them the benefit of the doubt on this over your armchair analysis, public data or not.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:19 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
even EA CO AS doesn't deny my point on the yield and financial performance.


I also pointed out how the equipment going to DAL could very easily be deployed elsewhere, so clearly these people - who, I might remind you, do this for a living - see something in DAL that you do not. You'll understand my inclination to give them the benefit of the doubt on this over your armchair analysis, public data or not.

That might be the case, but I also don't have to answer questions to the board and shareholders about why I am giving up on property I told them was worth a lot. Airlines are always going to operate routes that lose money for network reasons or other reasons. I don't have any skin in the other reasons.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:59 pm

tphuang wrote:
I also don't have to answer questions to the board and shareholders about why I am giving up on property I told them was worth a lot. Airlines are always going to operate routes that lose money for network reasons or other reasons.


They won't have to answer on that either, as no one said, "Hey, DAL is worth a lot!" as part of the VX purchase. It was something that just happened to be part of the deal, and certainly wasn't a determining factor in whether or not AS made the bid for VX. Not by a long shot. But this senior leadership team didn't get where they are by walking away from assets, and so they've been going about trying to make the best of them, which is what I told everyone would happen and was then roundly booed by the armchair CEO contingent here for suggesting that DAL had anything other than few month lifespan as part of the AS network.

Funny side note; years ago, I'm in a meeting with then-CEO Bill Ayer when he said, "Y'know, we used to be in the business of flying to certain money-losing destinations, but labeling them as 'strategic' and sticking it out anyway," saying those days were long since over. Brad Tilden and the rest of the senior leadership team have never forgotten that, so if DAL turns out to be a money pit no matter what, AS will eventually move the planes elsewhere.

But clearly, so far, they're encouraged by what they see.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
alasizon
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:45 pm

YYZORD wrote:
AA should've codeshared with CX and JL on their ORD/PHX-YVR routes, this could've helped increase pax on those flights.


Number of pax likely aren't the issue, rather yield is.
Manager on Duty & Tower Planner
 
capitalflyer
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Tue Jul 02, 2019 3:35 pm

shaneam12 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Here come the AA transcon cuts at JFK!

DCA BOS 15 daily on a LCC is a ludicrous waste of slots.


How can you have shuttle service without flying at least once an hour during the day? 15 daily is anything but a waste of slots. If JetBlue is currently trying to rebuild and achieve higher profitability, they need to cut unprofitable routes and use those slots to add on to routes that make them money. Adding more frequently to a high profile business route makes them way more competitive to travelers that need that flexibility to fly any hour of the day. Now that Delta, who is trying to expand and take the spot as the number one carrier at Boston, is starting 6x daily DCA-BOS in September, JetBlue needs to do whatever it takes to keep those important business travelers with them.

Edit: A word.


BOS does seem to be getting over saturated. There are a number more shuttle flights to BOS from DCA than there are to NYC between DL, AA, and B6 (EWR doesn't count, if it did we would have to add PVD, etc).. There are only 3 to JFK. Is there actually the demand for B6 to run 15x and AA to run up to 12x? I think BOS will reach the breaking point soon, fares will drop, and then whoever can hang on the longest will be the BOS-DCA shuttle champion and have the lionshare of shuttle flights from BOS. I am surprised that DL doesn't try to get in on the party as well if they are trying to beat out B6 at BOS. They have nothing currently from BOS-DCA and 6x in the fall. Which of course adds to the over saturation. 6x doesn't seem like they are trying to be competitive and drive anyone off the route,
 
HVNandrew
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Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Tue Jul 02, 2019 3:45 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
shaneam12 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Here come the AA transcon cuts at JFK!

DCA BOS 15 daily on a LCC is a ludicrous waste of slots.


How can you have shuttle service without flying at least once an hour during the day? 15 daily is anything but a waste of slots. If JetBlue is currently trying to rebuild and achieve higher profitability, they need to cut unprofitable routes and use those slots to add on to routes that make them money. Adding more frequently to a high profile business route makes them way more competitive to travelers that need that flexibility to fly any hour of the day. Now that Delta, who is trying to expand and take the spot as the number one carrier at Boston, is starting 6x daily DCA-BOS in September, JetBlue needs to do whatever it takes to keep those important business travelers with them.

Edit: A word.


BOS does seem to be getting over saturated. There are a number more shuttle flights to BOS from DCA than there are to NYC between DL, AA, and B6 (EWR doesn't count, if it did we would have to add PVD, etc).. There are only 3 to JFK. Is there actually the demand for B6 to run 15x and AA to run up to 12x? I think BOS will reach the breaking point soon, fares will drop, and then whoever can hang on the longest will be the BOS-DCA shuttle champion and have the lionshare of shuttle flights from BOS. I am surprised that DL doesn't try to get in on the party as well if they are trying to beat out B6 at BOS. They have nothing currently from BOS-DCA and 6x in the fall. Which of course adds to the over saturation. 6x doesn't seem like they are trying to be competitive and drive anyone off the route,

6x starting in the fall is DL getting "in on the party". They know that entry into the market with a full shuttle product (1) would require DCA slots that they don't have/are better used elsewhere and (2) would likely lose a huge amount of money. The 6x entry into the market allows them to provide service to their FF base in BOS with a decent schedule on a necessary route in order to be the preferred airline there while losing the least amount of money; it's going to be a loss leader for DL.

DL isn't trying to drive anyone off the route; instead, with their two biggest competitors in BOS serving the route, it is one they have to serve.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Tue Jul 02, 2019 4:21 pm

HVNandrew wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:
shaneam12 wrote:

How can you have shuttle service without flying at least once an hour during the day? 15 daily is anything but a waste of slots. If JetBlue is currently trying to rebuild and achieve higher profitability, they need to cut unprofitable routes and use those slots to add on to routes that make them money. Adding more frequently to a high profile business route makes them way more competitive to travelers that need that flexibility to fly any hour of the day. Now that Delta, who is trying to expand and take the spot as the number one carrier at Boston, is starting 6x daily DCA-BOS in September, JetBlue needs to do whatever it takes to keep those important business travelers with them.

Edit: A word.


BOS does seem to be getting over saturated. There are a number more shuttle flights to BOS from DCA than there are to NYC between DL, AA, and B6 (EWR doesn't count, if it did we would have to add PVD, etc).. There are only 3 to JFK. Is there actually the demand for B6 to run 15x and AA to run up to 12x? I think BOS will reach the breaking point soon, fares will drop, and then whoever can hang on the longest will be the BOS-DCA shuttle champion and have the lionshare of shuttle flights from BOS. I am surprised that DL doesn't try to get in on the party as well if they are trying to beat out B6 at BOS. They have nothing currently from BOS-DCA and 6x in the fall. Which of course adds to the over saturation. 6x doesn't seem like they are trying to be competitive and drive anyone off the route,

6x starting in the fall is DL getting "in on the party". They know that entry into the market with a full shuttle product (1) would require DCA slots that they don't have/are better used elsewhere and (2) would likely lose a huge amount of money. The 6x entry into the market allows them to provide service to their FF base in BOS with a decent schedule on a necessary route in order to be the preferred airline there while losing the least amount of money; it's going to be a loss leader for DL.

DL isn't trying to drive anyone off the route; instead, with their two biggest competitors in BOS serving the route, it is one they have to serve.


On the flip side, by having the weakest schedule, they are guaranteed to have the lowest fares/yields amongst the 3 airlines. You can see this on BOS-LGA, B6 has easily the worst schedule and far and away the lowest yield.
 
phxsanslcpdx
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:36 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:31 pm

enilria wrote:
Well I think you are right. DAL is up in the air. Even with some stuff continuing they may well just shut it. They need to do a deal to sell the gate access to DL. I asked that AS fan guy to post proof they can’t do that. I don’t think he did or I didn’t see it.


I don't know the terms of the Alaska-AA contract. But Alaska's settlement with the DOJ (https://www.justice.gov/atr/case-document/file/915971/download section IV B) requires them to get "prior written consent of the United States" to "directly or indirectly sell, trade, lease, or sub-lease" the DAL gates. They also "shall not directly or indirectly transfer any interest in the [gates] to American or permit American to use" them. Maybe they got prior written consent to turn over the gates to someone else in November, or maybe they've finally decided that they just need to try to abandon a gate so that the airport will seize it (section IV C provides an exception "if required by lawful directive of an airport authority or any other governmental body").

My hunch is that they're abandoning a gate. The DOJ was previously unwilling to let AA sublease the gates to DL or WN; I think it's unlikely that they've changed their minds. And I also doubt that DL (or any airline other than WN) would be willing to pay to sublease. DL in particular sees that they're getting value out of blocking WN market share--paying to sublease would erode that value and cost whatever the payment is.
 
ScottB
Posts: 6641
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/30/2019:AA Drops JFK-SEA,YVR-ORD/PHX,Adds;F9 Changes;AS Reduces DAL;B6 Shuffles Routes;DL RDU-JAX

Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:55 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
BOS does seem to be getting over saturated. There are a number more shuttle flights to BOS from DCA than there are to NYC between DL, AA, and B6 (EWR doesn't count, if it did we would have to add PVD, etc).. There are only 3 to JFK. Is there actually the demand for B6 to run 15x and AA to run up to 12x? I think BOS will reach the breaking point soon, fares will drop, and then whoever can hang on the longest will be the BOS-DCA shuttle champion and have the lionshare of shuttle flights from BOS. I am surprised that DL doesn't try to get in on the party as well if they are trying to beat out B6 at BOS. They have nothing currently from BOS-DCA and 6x in the fall. Which of course adds to the over saturation. 6x doesn't seem like they are trying to be competitive and drive anyone off the route,


BOS-DCA is a much stronger air market than BOS-NYC, though, thanks to the availability of several competitive ground transportation options between BOS and NYC. There's Acela, there's the bus, and there's driving. Acela is arguably faster city-center-to-city-center for Boston-NYC and suffers from fewer weather or ATC delays. The drive can be done in under four hours if the traffic isn't bad. The train to NYC takes 7 hours and driving is even longer; flying is easily the best option unless one is extremely price-sensitive.

And EWR absolutely counts as NYC. It is far, far closer to downtown or midtown Manhattan than PVD. Heck, HPN is closer to the city center than PVD is to Boston.

DL doesn't have enough DCA slots to try to match AA and B6 in the fight for DCA-BOS. As it is, they're stealing slots from other markets to fund DCA-BOS. As others have pointed out, it's basically a loss-leader so they can attract and retain corporate accounts who require availability of non-stop service to DCA.

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
Maybe they got prior written consent to turn over the gates to someone else in November, or maybe they've finally decided that they just need to try to abandon a gate so that the airport will seize it (section IV C provides an exception "if required by lawful directive of an airport authority or any other governmental body").

My hunch is that they're abandoning a gate. The DOJ was previously unwilling to let AA sublease the gates to DL or WN; I think it's unlikely that they've changed their minds. And I also doubt that DL (or any airline other than WN) would be willing to pay to sublease. DL in particular sees that they're getting value out of blocking WN market share--paying to sublease would erode that value and cost whatever the payment is.


The City of Dallas has rights under the lease to require carriers to share gates if those gates are underutilized. The standard for full utilization at DAL is ten daily turns. What I expect will happen is that the City will, if AS maintains a schedule of 13 daily departures, require AS to accommodate DL's 5 daily round-trips to ATL on one of its gates. With 195 departures from 18 gates, WN is already over the standard for full utilization. That sharing is permitted by section iv(c) that you cite and doesn't require AS to abandon a gate.

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