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SXI899
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:04 pm

PA515 wrote:
Don't think the ATR has the range for RUH-CMB. This must be RUH-MCT, then MCT-CMB-SZB-DPS-DRW-BNE-CHC.

PA515

Correct, RUH-CMB is too far for an ATR (even empty).

And this time round NAG will be replacing CMB as a stop.
We deliver......
 
torin
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:03 pm

MH has released new flight timings effective 27Oct

MH131/130 is removed and two new flight numbers added - MH133/MH145 inbound

MH133 – KUL/AKL 0825/2355 – Mon/Tue/Thu/Sat Airbus A330-200 (332)
MH132 – AKL/KUL 0110/0720 – Tue/Wed/Fri/Sun Airbus A330-200 (332)

MH145 – KUL/AKL 2045/1205 – Tue/Wed/Fri/Sun Airbus A330-200 (332)
MH144 – AKL/KUL 1320/1930 – Mon/Wed/Thu/Sat Airbus A330-200 (332)

sauce: https://tinyurl.com/yxowv78j

Isnt this similar to how it used to be, with the alternating times?
 
zkeoj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:48 pm

PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
I’ve drawn a blank, have the 789s been maintained in AKL? NZF has WIFI fitted during its 18 months grounded at AKL, where are they at with WIFI installation?


As far as I know all Air NZ's 789 maintenance has been done in AKL. The only photo of ZK-NZF I could find with the Wifi radome is in the airliners.net database and was taken on 25 April 2019. Someone said ZK-NZE would also be fitted with Wifi in AKL while it is grounded. Presumably the catering vehicle damage has been repaired and it's just waiting for engines. On 28 Feb 2019 Chris Luxon said the RR engine issues would be all resolved by 01 Sep 2019.

The 77Es with Wifi are ZK-OKB, ZK-OKD, ZK-OKE, ZK-OKF, ZK-OKG and ZK-OKH.
So ZK-OKA and ZK-OKC yet to be done.

The 77Ws with Wifi are ZK-OKN, ZK-OKO, ZK-OKP, ZK-OKQ and ZK-OKS.
ZK-OKM had maintenance in SIN about March 2019 but didn't get Wifi, which surprised me.
ZK-OKR may have been left to last as I believe it's the aircraft referred to in the Investor Day presentation as having early lease termination options for FY2020 and FY2021.

As for the other 789s, maybe ZK-NZR will be delivered with Wifi, but suspect the others will be done in SIN as they can probably do it faster.

PA515


Thanks for the great info, PA515, as always :-) How long in advance are frames allocated to actual city pairs, i.e. does anybody already know which frame is planned to do NZ 24 on the 7th, i.e. one with or without wifi?

Cheers
micha
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:56 pm

Well it looks like we have an answer to what is happening on the 1st of August, and no it isn’t non-stop flights CHC-LAX, KKE-YVR, and WLG-EZE. Those thinking new safety video were on the money:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?objectid=12253951

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:34 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:

Pier B is a prime example of AIALs cheap approach, it’s a tin shed, it’s cheap construction, there’s nothing nice about it all.


But I'm sure we'd all prefer a 'tin shed' similar to Pier B for a new Domestic terminal over the current cramped overcrowded disgrace we call AKLD!

Sadly, the actual building shell isn't the issue, it's all the preparation works and other infrastructure that costs an arm and leg.


Pier B and the domestic terminal are both tin sheds. It doesn’t take decades to build a new domestic terminal, the Chinese can built a airport from scratch with 80m passenger capacity quicker than it took AIAL to build Pier B.

AIAL are a shitty operator who need to be given the boot, they have not done a worthy job on AKL since the airport was privatised.


The issue AKL has created themselves is they're trying to build and expand in an already congested space, its got to be like trying to make your bed while you're still in it. The actual building itself it's so much of the issue, it's keeping the site secure and building all the other infrastructure around it while also trying to operate at near capacity.

Another example is, look how long it's taking to build the CRL.... a construction site that size in the middle of the CBD will naturally be slower.

I completely agree with your last sentence, and this issue has been brought about due to their OWN lack of development even though domestic travel numbers have grown year on year for over a decade all while they continue to build shops and hotels!

At least Pier B has high ceilings and wide, straight and long corridors.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:42 pm

torin wrote:
MH has released new flight timings effective 27Oct

MH131/130 is removed and two new flight numbers added - MH133/MH145 inbound

MH133 – KUL/AKL 0825/2355 – Mon/Tue/Thu/Sat Airbus A330-200 (332)
MH132 – AKL/KUL 0110/0720 – Tue/Wed/Fri/Sun Airbus A330-200 (332)

MH145 – KUL/AKL 2045/1205 – Tue/Wed/Fri/Sun Airbus A330-200 (332)
MH144 – AKL/KUL 1320/1930 – Mon/Wed/Thu/Sat Airbus A330-200 (332)

sauce: https://tinyurl.com/yxowv78j

Isnt this similar to how it used to be, with the alternating times?


Back to the split schedule, looks like 8 weekly so there is a departure everyday ex AKL. Beats the long ground time they have now.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:59 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
I wouldn't rule out the 787-10 also serving as a 77W replacement. Sure it's a little smaller, but in the US market where the 77W operates size has given way to frequency and diversity of destinations. An all 787 fleet would have great advantages in scheduling and crewing.

The 77X was talked about primarily because of its range but now that the various 787 types have the promise of more MTOW that advantage is mostly lost.


The two key features of the 77X range and capacity is not a mix NZ wants or needs together though, they need moderate to lite load over a long distance for NYC/ORD etc and, if at all, a larger load SFO/LAX which obviously doesn't need the range. However, looking at the fact NZ's continued expansion into the US will we simply see more services, therefore, voiding any need for the size of the 77X.

I agree with you, the 78J is a serious contender for the 77W replacement.

It's going to come down to, does NZ see long term benefit in 350+/- seat aircraft to LAX/SFO and maybe IAH/LHR
 
tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:38 pm

NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
I wouldn't rule out the 787-10 also serving as a 77W replacement. Sure it's a little smaller, but in the US market where the 77W operates size has given way to frequency and diversity of destinations. An all 787 fleet would have great advantages in scheduling and crewing.

The 77X was talked about primarily because of its range but now that the various 787 types have the promise of more MTOW that advantage is mostly lost.


The two key features of the 77X range and capacity is not a mix NZ wants or needs together though, they need moderate to lite load over a long distance for NYC/ORD etc and, if at all, a larger load SFO/LAX which obviously doesn't need the range. However, looking at the fact NZ's continued expansion into the US will we simply see more services, therefore, voiding any need for the size of the 77X.

I agree with you, the 78J is a serious contender for the 77W replacement.

It's going to come down to, does NZ see long term benefit in 350+/- seat aircraft to LAX/SFO and maybe IAH/LHR


Still a lot of wishful thinking on what the 78J can do – helped by some poor reporting on the 77E replacement announcement. First, on what the 78Js can do, we still have nothing concrete beyond the comments that Boeing found a bit more range and that the GEnX gives better range than the Trent. Lost in the excitement on the 78J announcement was Luxon’s comment that the -10s would mostly be used on Asian routes. We are not hearing any evidence of a transformational improvement in payload/range for either the 789 or 78J. Extended range in both cases will require trade-off with payload.

As for the idea that the 78J could replace the 77W, an interview with Luxon in the latest Australian Aviation knocks that firmly on the head:

Luxon said the question of replacement for the airline’s seven 777-300ERs was a separate decision from the options on the 787-10. "We’ve actually compartmentalised those decisions so our view at this point is that we would still need a replacement for the 777-300ER. Our intention at this stage is that when the 777-300s come up for replacement towards the mid-to-late 2020s . . . that would be the logical time when we will probably want to look at a larger aircraft. The A350s and the Boeing 777Xs come into the frame. At this point the 787-10s (or -9s) are not code for replacing the -300s. We are really impressed with the candidate aircraft (to replace them). The A350-1000 is a great aircraft, as is the Boeing 777X, though it still has to come through development.”


Looks to me as if NZ found the seat/mile savings on the 78J for Asian and regional routes irresistible and decided they could live with their marginal capability for LAX/SFO. The downturn in traffic projections seems to have nudged them toward the more conservative fleet option. And they are left with the 77Ws (and to some extent the 789s) to handle cargo traffic out of the US as the 77Es are phased out. The 78Js will have huge cargo capacity on the shorter Asian routes.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:50 am

tealnz wrote:
As for the idea that the 78J could replace the 77W, an interview with Luxon in the latest Australian Aviation knocks that firmly on the head:


I assume you're referring to this article,
https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... -787-order

Then by what Luxon has said, no, the 77W is not being replaced by the 78J at this point, wouldn't safe firmly on its head as it's also not being replaced by the 77X or A35K either. The key message is, that decision hasn't been made and they probably want to look at large planes. No definitely and there is no message that they must or need more space etc.

But, where will the airline be and how will they view this in 2025? That's another 6 years from now, Will the airline get a 778 or (unlikely) 779 to replace 5 77W or will the trend and a global trend at that continue with more mid-sized aircraft.

It's clear, the door is open, the 12 options covers some growth of a few frames and probably enough for 77W replacements if they went this way. Can't see the airline needing more than the 7 they have.

As for my opinion, I hope they get some 778's but get the feeling it's too big and there's just not enough routes on their network to support it, looking at the long term plan and what's worked well for most airlines, it's going to be about connecting AKL with more places more directly so the mass hub flying is dwindling. If the -10 becomes a genuine ER with 330+ seats it may raise some serious questions
 
tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Tue Jul 30, 2019 2:32 am

A plain reading of Luxon’s comments is that NZ expect to be looking at the 35K or 77X come time to replace the 77Ws. That shouldn’t be a surprise: the 77Ws offer a lot more capability, and NZ are known both for their higher density cabins and for heavy cargo loads.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Tue Jul 30, 2019 3:52 am

tealnz wrote:
A plain reading of Luxon’s comments is that NZ expect to be looking at the 35K or 77X come time to replace the 77Ws. That shouldn’t be a surprise: the 77Ws offer a lot more capability, and NZ are known both for their higher density cabins and for heavy cargo loads.


The first half of that I agree with based on the article, the second half not so much..

- Luxon is saying they are probably looking at something bigger. There is nothing stopping the airline from shifting their focus away from this and into more point to point flying which is proving successful to date.

- You say NZ's known for the density of their cabins however this has more to do with the economics of that config and equipment vs the actual demand being the driver for this "density". As an example, the 78J is said to be 25% more fuel-efficient than the 772. Does this allow the airline to operate thinner routes over hub flying with higher density?

- Heavy Cargo is incorrect; NZ carries high-value perishable cargo such as fresh salmon / live bees etc. Heavy cargo goes via sea. Besides that, you don't buy a plane based on cargo volume, just look at any report where cargo revenue is compared to passenger revenue to understand why.

I find this article interesting.. firstly there's a clear shift in long haul strategy which has been happening for a while; since the 744's really... but this comment?

At this point the 787-10s (or nines) are not code for replacing the -300s


It's clear NZ hasn't made its mind up and if a call had to be made today to replace the 77W, NZ would look for a bigger aircraft but I think NZ is placing pressure on Boeing to delivery something they need, either between the 778 or 787 but also keeping airbus interested.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:07 am

NZ6 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

But I'm sure we'd all prefer a 'tin shed' similar to Pier B for a new Domestic terminal over the current cramped overcrowded disgrace we call AKLD!

Sadly, the actual building shell isn't the issue, it's all the preparation works and other infrastructure that costs an arm and leg.


Pier B and the domestic terminal are both tin sheds. It doesn’t take decades to build a new domestic terminal, the Chinese can built a airport from scratch with 80m passenger capacity quicker than it took AIAL to build Pier B.

AIAL are a shitty operator who need to be given the boot, they have not done a worthy job on AKL since the airport was privatised.


The issue AKL has created themselves is they're trying to build and expand in an already congested space, its got to be like trying to make your bed while you're still in it. The actual building itself it's so much of the issue, it's keeping the site secure and building all the other infrastructure around it while also trying to operate at near capacity.

Another example is, look how long it's taking to build the CRL.... a construction site that size in the middle of the CBD will naturally be slower.

I completely agree with your last sentence, and this issue has been brought about due to their OWN lack of development even though domestic travel numbers have grown year on year for over a decade all while they continue to build shops and hotels!

At least Pier B has high ceilings and wide, straight and long corridors.


I use OSL all the time, In recent years they have doubled the size of the checkin area, added a new pier and are now working on a new non schengen international departure area. All in congested space whilst keeping the airport functioning. AIAL could build the facilities we need but they would rather build facilities which make a quick return on investment for shareholders, the entire problem is because they aren’t govt owned so return to shareholders is the primary function, running an airport is secondary.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:06 am

SXI899 wrote:
And this time round NAG will be replacing CMB as a stop.


Thanks Yorden.

zkeoj wrote:
How long in advance are frames allocated to actual city pairs, i.e. does anybody already know which frame is planned to do NZ 24 on the 7th, i.e. one with or without wifi?


This 01 Dec 2018 'TravelTalk' blog post by Steve Biddle had the list of aircraft with Wifi updated on 14 June 2019, so presumably the rest is still valid.

https://traveltalk.nz/news-opinion/how- ... ight-wifi/

PA515
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:37 pm

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... UHvC7-_Mwg

Things seem to be getting very New York-ish for this 1 August announcement.

Lewis Leitt (Suits character) to star in the upcoming All Blacks safety star.

Could be it be EWR coming soon, with maybe an AB game in New York as an promotional gimmick.

Did the AB’s do an game pre ORD too?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:07 pm

zkncj wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12253951&fbclid=IwAR0KLuZMbgquS0TlAilh2miRM0-YAxwxFZ3xStxTWxl3db7b3UHvC7-_Mwg

Things seem to be getting very New York-ish for this 1 August announcement.

Lewis Leitt (Suits character) to star in the upcoming All Blacks safety star.

Could be it be EWR coming soon, with maybe an AB game in New York as an promotional gimmick.

Did the AB’s do an game pre ORD too?


Am I right in thinking, your thoughts are tomorrow's announcement is...

- Safety Video coupled with the
- Launch of NYC flights supported by a
- AB's game in NYC
 
jimmyah
Posts: 52
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:17 pm

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12253951&fbclid=IwAR0KLuZMbgquS0TlAilh2miRM0-YAxwxFZ3xStxTWxl3db7b3UHvC7-_Mwg

Things seem to be getting very New York-ish for this 1 August announcement.

Lewis Leitt (Suits character) to star in the upcoming All Blacks safety star.

Could be it be EWR coming soon, with maybe an AB game in New York as an promotional gimmick.

Did the AB’s do an game pre ORD too?


Am I right in thinking, your thoughts are tomorrow's announcement is...

- Safety Video coupled with the
- Launch of NYC flights supported by a
- AB's game in NYC


As much as I wish for all of those to be true, I will eat my hat if its anything more than a video.
 
stor72
Posts: 6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:51 am

zkncj wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12253951&fbclid=IwAR0KLuZMbgquS0TlAilh2miRM0-YAxwxFZ3xStxTWxl3db7b3UHvC7-_Mwg

Things seem to be getting very New York-ish for this 1 August announcement.

Lewis Leitt (Suits character) to star in the upcoming All Blacks safety star.

Could be it be EWR coming soon, with maybe an AB game in New York as an promotional gimmick.

Did the AB’s do an game pre ORD too?

Hoping airnz order A350s to replace the 77Ws. Have the range to do New York and maybe even London. There are a couple of training issues but air nz has switched to airbus on its narrow-bodies, and things are going great there.
Hi.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:34 am

tealnz wrote:
A plain reading of Luxon’s comments is that NZ expect to be looking at the 35K or 77X come time to replace the 77Ws. That shouldn’t be a surprise: the 77Ws offer a lot more capability, and NZ are known both for their higher density cabins and for heavy cargo loads.


You are reading a lot into this imo, a 77W replacement order is probably what 5 yeas away?
 
A350OZ
Posts: 144
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:59 am

Kiwirob wrote:
I use OSL all the time, In recent years they have doubled the size of the checkin area, added a new pier and are now working on a new non schengen international departure area. All in congested space whilst keeping the airport functioning. AIAL could build the facilities we need but they would rather build facilities which make a quick return on investment for shareholders, the entire problem is because they aren’t govt owned so return to shareholders is the primary function, running an airport is secondary.


Same with HEL, if you look at the drastic expansion of their new pier, and also continuously over the last few years while also significantly growing in pax numbers and still maintaining to be a very pleasant airport to use and connect.

On the discussion of private vs public ownership of airports, I think if critical infrastructure is privatised then it needs to be coupled with certain conditions, and the whole "shareholder first" philosophy is clearly an issue when it comes to running an asset that needs to serve the greater community. One solution could be to mandate companies like AIAL to become certified B Corporations, by which statutes they would not only need to be accountable to shareholders, but serve a multitude of interests including also their employees, customers, suppliers, the community they operate in, etc. You probably cannot mandate this after the fact of privatisation though...
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6976
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:17 am

stor72 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12253951&fbclid=IwAR0KLuZMbgquS0TlAilh2miRM0-YAxwxFZ3xStxTWxl3db7b3UHvC7-_Mwg

Things seem to be getting very New York-ish for this 1 August announcement.

Lewis Leitt (Suits character) to star in the upcoming All Blacks safety star.

Could be it be EWR coming soon, with maybe an AB game in New York as an promotional gimmick.

Did the AB’s do an game pre ORD too?

Hoping airnz order A350s to replace the 77Ws. Have the range to do New York and maybe even London. There are a couple of training issues but air nz has switched to airbus on its narrow-bodies, and things are going great there.


London? That’s ambitious. I think you will need more than 1-2 routes while training will be a huge cost not to mention another type. They have been able over time to drop the 737 and make the A320 its sole narrow body which won’t happen with wide bodies.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:56 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
They have been able over time to drop the 737 and make the A320 its sole narrow body which won’t happen with wide bodies.

Unless, of course, the 78J does end up being the 77W replacement, which is a real possibility, especially given that EWR is likely to be served by 789s and therefore the range of the A350 and 777X are not critical to the decision.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6976
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:30 am

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
They have been able over time to drop the 737 and make the A320 its sole narrow body which won’t happen with wide bodies.

Unless, of course, the 78J does end up being the 77W replacement, which is a real possibility, especially given that EWR is likely to be served by 789s and therefore the range of the A350 and 777X are not critical to the decision.


Sorry badly worded myself, what I meant is that a new type seems unlikely given that as you say at this early stage I’d see a 78J being the 77W replacement. I do think people are reading to much into Luxon’s comments given he won’t be CEO much longer.

Maybe Luxon does plan to announce NYC given its his goal to fly rhere
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:49 am

Looking at some random dates in January some LAX flights say 777-300 which indicates OKT is staying longer given the other 77W services say 777-300ER. Interesting. Anyone know how long it’s around for or if we can expect some kind of official announcement?
 
zkeoj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:01 am

PA515 wrote:
SXI899 wrote:
And this time round NAG will be replacing CMB as a stop.


Thanks Yorden.

zkeoj wrote:
How long in advance are frames allocated to actual city pairs, i.e. does anybody already know which frame is planned to do NZ 24 on the 7th, i.e. one with or without wifi?


This 01 Dec 2018 'TravelTalk' blog post by Steve Biddle had the list of aircraft with Wifi updated on 14 June 2019, so presumably the rest is still valid.

https://traveltalk.nz/news-opinion/how- ... ight-wifi/

PA515


Thanks heaps for the info :-)

Oh, I forgot about the symbol in the app - should show up any day now - or not. Flightradar doesn't have the rego either yet, but the past few flights were a lot on OKA and OKC, so chances are that NZ rosters them on that route frequently.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:15 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Looking at some random dates in January some LAX flights say 777-300 which indicates OKT is staying longer given the other 77W services say 777-300ER. Interesting. Anyone know how long it’s around for or if we can expect some kind of official announcement?


It was mentioned on another forum that ZK-OKT would be leaving at the end of October 2019. The schedule you looked at was probably a pro forma schedule based on January 2019. The 'book' schedule is now showing only 777-300ER or 777-200 for AKL-LAX and there are now more 777-200 flights, up to four a week on NZ6 / NZ5 during peak season.

PA515
 
tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:53 am

NZ6 wrote:
tealnz wrote:
A plain reading of Luxon’s comments is that NZ expect to be looking at the 35K or 77X come time to replace the 77Ws. That shouldn’t be a surprise: the 77Ws offer a lot more capability, and NZ are known both for their higher density cabins and for heavy cargo loads.


The first half of that I agree with based on the article, the second half not so much..

- Luxon is saying they are probably looking at something bigger. There is nothing stopping the airline from shifting their focus away from this and into more point to point flying which is proving successful to date.

- You say NZ's known for the density of their cabins however this has more to do with the economics of that config and equipment vs the actual demand being the driver for this "density". As an example, the 78J is said to be 25% more fuel-efficient than the 772. Does this allow the airline to operate thinner routes over hub flying with higher density?

- Heavy Cargo is incorrect; NZ carries high-value perishable cargo such as fresh salmon / live bees etc. Heavy cargo goes via sea. Besides that, you don't buy a plane based on cargo volume, just look at any report where cargo revenue is compared to passenger revenue to understand why.

I find this article interesting.. firstly there's a clear shift in long haul strategy which has been happening for a while; since the 744's really... but this comment?

At this point the 787-10s (or nines) are not code for replacing the -300s


It's clear NZ hasn't made its mind up and if a call had to be made today to replace the 77W, NZ would look for a bigger aircraft but I think NZ is placing pressure on Boeing to delivery something they need, either between the 778 or 787 but also keeping airbus interested.


I don't think it's all that complicated:

- Obviously they haven't taken a decision on what will replace the 77Ws. They did take a decision to "compartmentalise" the 77W replacement – meaning they didn't build that into the new 78J/789/GEnX package, even though that order includes a number of options.

- The working assumption is that they will replace the 77Ws with an aircraft larger than a 787 – Luxon specified 35K and 77X as possibilities. That's not a throwaway line: it implies the analysis they did for the 77E replacement came up with a continuing need for a type in the 35K/77X category.

- It's not a surprise. NZ may be fine flying pax-only 789s from NYC and ORD and 78Js on some LAX/SFO services. But they also need aircraft in the fleet that can carry a hold full of freight westbound. Cargo revenue is mostly profit - it's important for the bottom line.

- Yes we are seeing a continuing shift in long-haul strategy away from hubbing toward point to point. NZ like monopoly routes and they are planning for more, including ULH routes. Luxon still said they expected to need a larger aircraft to replace the 77Ws. There is no inconsistency there.
 
tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:06 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
You are reading a lot into this imo, a 77W replacement order is probably what 5 yeas away?

Luxon has just announced the 78Js, to great fanfare. But he doesn't see them as the eventual 77W replacement. He says specifically he expected the airline to be looking at the 35K and 77X as the 77W replacement. Nothing complicated about what he said. And of course the 77W decision is years away. But Luxon will be basing his comments on the same analysis of future fleet needs that produced the 78J decision. You can't have it both ways.

DavidByrne wrote:
Unless, of course, the 78J does end up being the 77W replacement, which is a real possibility, especially given that EWR is likely to be served by 789s and therefore the range of the A350 and 777X are not critical to the decision.

Same issue: why do we think Luxon is brilliant when he buys the 78Js but suddenly out of touch when he says the airline will need something in the 35K/77X class to replace the 77Ws?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:19 pm

tealnz wrote:
Same issue: why do we think Luxon is brilliant when he buys the 78Js but suddenly out of touch when he says the airline will need something in the 35K/77X class to replace the 77Ws?

Who knows if any of Luxon's decisions will turn out to be brilliant? It's not so black and white IMHO. I imagine NZ will be happy to keep airframers guessing as to its intentions for the moment, given Luxon is on the way out.

Personally, if the order eventually went to the 35K or the 778 I'd trust that the right decision had been taken by people in full possession of the facts. It's just that I think that the 78J may end up with the performance to make an all 787 WB fleet an interesting and possibly irresistible option.

There has been a strong signal that a significant performance bump for the 78J is imminent, though how significant we don't yet know. We do know that NZ has implied (though not stated) that the range would be sufficient to reach the West Coast. Uncertainty about the timing of the 778 (and even, according to some, the 778 itself) may yet be a factor in the decision, too.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -July 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:24 pm

Please continue discussion in New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2019

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