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NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:24 am

getluv wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Not that popular - working from BITRE you can see that there was an average of 86 pax/flight in December, 110 pax/flight in January, and 91 pax/flight. For them to commit to a three-year operation must have required significant investment from NTL and/or the local Council.


Yes but they may also see long term potential. If they still had the tie up with NZ it would have been much better IMO.

I'm heading to SFO in December and leaving NTL instead of SYD would be nice.


The Council were probably better off throwing the money at NZ than VA.

50-65% LF during high season is atrocious, however I would like to hear from the locals whether the route was promoted well. Clearly VA are getting thrown enough money to keep these services running.


As a local I'd say it was reasonably well marketed. Certainly plenty of press, radio and TV coverage.

The lead in time to flights was about the same last year which may not have been enough. I hope there was marketing of the Hunter as a destination in NZ.

The airport is owned by 2 councils so at least the subsidy ( whatever it is ) is split.
 
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QuayWeeAir
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:43 am

getluv wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Not that popular - working from BITRE you can see that there was an average of 86 pax/flight in December, 110 pax/flight in January, and 91 pax/flight. For them to commit to a three-year operation must have required significant investment from NTL and/or the local Council.


Yes but they may also see long term potential. If they still had the tie up with NZ it would have been much better IMO.

I'm heading to SFO in December and leaving NTL instead of SYD would be nice.


The Council were probably better off throwing the money at NZ than VA.

50-65% LF during high season is atrocious, however I would like to hear from the locals whether the route was promoted well. Clearly VA are getting thrown enough money to keep these services running.



I think it would've been the lead in time for bookings that saw low load factors for Virgin Australia. IIRC the original announcement was made only a few months before the first scheduled flights. Hopefully this time around, there'll be more passengers on the flights.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:07 am

getluv wrote:
The Council were probably better off throwing the money at NZ than VA.

I tend to agree. In fact, I'm guessing they may have had to throw less money at NZ than they are throwing at VA. My reasoning:

1. This is clearly an inbound market for NTL, and therefore most of the marketing grunt needs to be in NZ. But VA is almost invisible in NZ, apart from some obscure TV adverts (alluding to the fact that they offered baggage and meals etc in their fare, but which took me several times watching the advert to figure out).I don't think I saw any adverts at all specifically promoting NTL, but I'm open to correction there. But any which way, NZ's marketing presence in AKL is an order of magnitude greater than VA's, and it was always going to be a big ask for VA to make AKL-NTL work profitably.

2. NZ has the possibility of carrying NTL passengers onward to the USA, Canada and South America, but VA cannot take AKL passengers anywhere meaningful through connections at NTL. If NZ managed to get 20-30 pax a week to connect seamlessly through AKL, that's an automatic boost of 5%-ish in LF, which could be the make or break of a route like this.

I've long thought that NTL had potential as an NZ destination from AKL (next in line after HBA and CBR and before TSV) but I doubt that they would try it now in competition with VA.

Speaking of HBA, a couple of years ago I was assured by Tassie tourist industry locals "in the know" who had been over to AKL promoting HBA's merits that NZ would make a big announcement and would be serving HBA within a year or so. Since then nothing. No whispers on the NZ side of the Tasman, either. Do any of our HBA posters have any scuttlebutt on this? I travel from AKL-HBA at least annually and would really welcome a direct service. Back in 1987 QF operated a weekly AKL-HBA service with 762s for a very short period, but since then . . . nothing.
Last edited by DavidByrne on Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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oskarclare
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:08 am

The Embraer E195-E2 arrived into BNE yesterday arvo and left this afternoon today for SYD. The aircraft (PR-ZIG) arrived from POM yesterday and completed a demonstration flight today. Here are a couple of photos:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected] ... otostream/

Courtesy and Permission from Tourismman (SSC)
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:29 am

DavidByrne wrote:
getluv wrote:
The Council were probably better off throwing the money at NZ than VA.

I tend to agree. In fact, I'm guessing they may have had to throw less money at NZ than they are throwing at VA. My reasoning:

1. This is clearly an inbound market for NTL, and therefore most of the marketing grunt needs to be in NZ. But VA is almost invisible in NZ, apart from some obscure TV adverts (alluding to the fact that they offered baggage and meals etc in their fare, but which took me several times watching the advert to figure out).I don't think I saw any adverts at all specifically promoting NTL, but I'm open to correction there. But any which way, NZ's marketing presence in AKL is an order of magnitude greater than VA's, and it was always going to be a big ask for VA to make AKL-NTL work profitably.

2. NZ has the possibility of carrying NTL passengers onward to the USA, Canada and South America, but VA cannot take AKL passengers anywhere meaningful through connections at NTL. If NZ managed to get 20-30 pax a week to connect seamlessly through AKL, that's an automatic boost of 5%-ish in LF, which could be the make or break of a route like this.

I've long thought that NTL had potential as an NZ destination from AKL (next in line after HBA and CBR and before TSV) but I doubt that they would try it now in competition with VA.

Speaking of HBA, a couple of years ago I was assured by Tassie tourist industry locals "in the know" who had been over to AKL promoting HBA's merits that NZ would make a big announcement and would be serving HBA within a year or so. Since then nothing. No whispers on the NZ side of the Tasman, either. Do any of our HBA posters have any scuttlebutt on this? I travel from AKL-HBA at least annually and would really welcome a direct service. Back in 1987 QF operated a weekly AKL-HBA service with 762s for a very short period, but since then . . . nothing.


I agree with most of your post apart from point 1. I don't agree that it is clearly an inbound market. The population of Newcastle is circa 500 000 with a reasonably large NZ born population. It would be interesting to see the breakdown of inbound/ outbound.

I do agree that there needs to be marketing done in Auckland and probably more than there has been. I may be biased but there is a lot to recommend the Hunter region as a short break destination.
 
TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:06 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Speaking of HBA, a couple of years ago I was assured by Tassie tourist industry locals "in the know" who had been over to AKL promoting HBA's merits that NZ would make a big announcement and would be serving HBA within a year or so. Since then nothing. No whispers on the NZ side of the Tasman, either. Do any of our HBA posters have any scuttlebutt on this? I travel from AKL-HBA at least annually and would really welcome a direct service. Back in 1987 QF operated a weekly AKL-HBA service with 762s for a very short period, but since then . . . nothing.


HBA is scheduled to commence construction of a swing gate, which will facilitate International flights, in December 2019; the scheduled completion date is December 2020. Federal money was allocated for CIQ in the Hobart City Deal, so International flights will happen once the airport completes the necessary infrastructure.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:14 pm

Just posted on AusBT, Qantas BNE-ORD flights to begin April 20 2020 running on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays. Tickets will be on sale from 10am today EST.
https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-launche ... ane-flight
 
FL420FT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:40 am

[photoid][/photoid]
CraigAnderson wrote:
Just posted on AusBT, Qantas BNE-ORD flights to begin April 20 2020 running on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays. Tickets will be on sale from 10am today EST.
https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-launche ... ane-flight


And the link from the Qantas news room, with the timings of the flights ...

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... -business/
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:41 am

QF will start BNE-SFO on 9 Feb 20, 3 weekly

BNE-LAX will also increase to 13 weekly 2 Jan to 8 Feb 20

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... -business/
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rushed
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:10 am

FL420FT wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
CraigAnderson wrote:
Just posted on AusBT, Qantas BNE-ORD flights to begin April 20 2020 running on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays. Tickets will be on sale from 10am today EST.
https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-launche ... ane-flight


And the link from the Qantas news room, with the timings of the flights ...

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... -business/


Any thoughts on what the 787’s will do between 6am and 15:30/20:35 in BNE? QF seem to want to use these pretty efficiently so wonder where they might go during the day?
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:20 am

rushed wrote:
FL420FT wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
CraigAnderson wrote:
Just posted on AusBT, Qantas BNE-ORD flights to begin April 20 2020 running on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays. Tickets will be on sale from 10am today EST.
https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-launche ... ane-flight


And the link from the Qantas news room, with the timings of the flights ...

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... -business/


Any thoughts on what the 787’s will do between 6am and 15:30/20:35 in BNE? QF seem to want to use these pretty efficiently so wonder where they might go during the day?


One suggestion is a BNE-AKL-BNE round-trip (replacing the A330 or 738) on the days the 789s are scheduled on BNE-SFO, considering the SFO flights depart BNE at 2030.
I'm tipping the 789 will probably sit in BNE all-day for the days it's scheduled on BNE-ORD, which depart BNE at 1530.
 
budgetflyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:10 am

TasFlyer wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Speaking of HBA, a couple of years ago I was assured by Tassie tourist industry locals "in the know" who had been over to AKL promoting HBA's merits that NZ would make a big announcement and would be serving HBA within a year or so. Since then nothing. No whispers on the NZ side of the Tasman, either. Do any of our HBA posters have any scuttlebutt on this? I travel from AKL-HBA at least annually and would really welcome a direct service. Back in 1987 QF operated a weekly AKL-HBA service with 762s for a very short period, but since then . . . nothing.


HBA is scheduled to commence construction of a swing gate, which will facilitate International flights, in December 2019; the scheduled completion date is December 2020. Federal money was allocated for CIQ in the Hobart City Deal, so International flights will happen once the airport completes the necessary infrastructure.


International flights out of HBA have been talked about for years, and the airport has had limited provisions for intl ops for quite some time now (which the Skytraders flights have made use of, I believe). As much as I would love to see the resumption of flights to NZ, I am not convinced the business case stacks up. According to the link below, 16,140 passengers travelled between HBA and AKL in the 12 months from July 2017 to June 2018. This equates to an average of 22 passengers travelling in each direction, per day. Even with the potential for connections ex-AKL, I am not sure whether there is enough traffic to make this viable.

Maybe NZ might be able to make it work in the same way they launched AKL-MCY flights - a couple of flights a week, over the busiest three or four months of the year. JQ could also make a go of it by stimulating the market with low fares.

This link also provides some more info on HBA-CBR traffic; this city pairing had a PDEW of 72 over the same time period, perfect for a Q400 or 717!

https://www.anna.aero/2019/01/17/hobart-airport-800000-more-passengers-annum-2010/
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:10 am

There's currently a 787 that just sits in BNE (on the logistics apron) on the days that QF55 goes out (and there's the PER rotation on Fridays, but that's only doable because the next QF55 is Saturday evening). AKL is possible, but that's probably the only possibility aside from leaving it sitting around. I guess in the 14 or so hours that it's parked down at Logistics they probably do some minor maintenance?
 
budgetflyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:17 am

SCFlyer wrote:
rushed wrote:
FL420FT wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]

And the link from the Qantas news room, with the timings of the flights ...

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... -business/


Any thoughts on what the 787’s will do between 6am and 15:30/20:35 in BNE? QF seem to want to use these pretty efficiently so wonder where they might go during the day?


One suggestion is a BNE-AKL-BNE round-trip (replacing the A330 or 738) on the days the 789s are scheduled on BNE-SFO, considering the SFO flights depart BNE at 2030.
I'm tipping the 789 will probably sit in BNE all-day for the days it's scheduled on BNE-ORD, which depart BNE at 1530.


Another idea would be BNE-DRW - the timings of QF824/825 slot in nicely with the new SFO flights. This flight was operated with a 767 for years and even saw the occasional A330 (if I'm not mistaken), largely owing to demand for freight. Perhaps this could alternate with a hypothetical BNE-AKL rotation; send the 787 to DRW in the dry season, and across the Tasman over the busier summer months?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:35 am

budgetflyer wrote:
International flights out of HBA have been talked about for years, and the airport has had limited provisions for intl ops for quite some time now (which the Skytraders flights have made use of, I believe). As much as I would love to see the resumption of flights to NZ, I am not convinced the business case stacks up. According to the link below, 16,140 passengers travelled between HBA and AKL in the 12 months from July 2017 to June 2018. This equates to an average of 22 passengers travelling in each direction, per day. Even with the potential for connections ex-AKL, I am not sure whether there is enough traffic to make this viable.

Maybe NZ might be able to make it work in the same way they launched AKL-MCY flights - a couple of flights a week, over the busiest three or four months of the year. JQ could also make a go of it by stimulating the market with low fares

Yes, one option is a seasonal summer service, which as you note NZ is not averse to. I'd say that while current demand is low, a new service would create its own market, and we shouldn't read too much into existing traffic. They currently have a number of seasonals: CHC-PER, CHC-NAN, WLG-NAN, AKL-KIX, AKL-DPS. AKL-CNS, AKL-MCY among them.

On the subject of the seasonal AKL-CNS, a couple of months ago I read an FNQ newspaper in which it was stated that CNS expected to do a deal (subsidy/guarantee I assume) with NZ to expand their AKL-CNS services to year round (again). Nothing further on that either. Anyone heard anything further on that?
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 4:29 am

Qantas to add an extra 1800 seats per week to OOL for the busy summer period, both SYD-OOL and MEL-OOL will see frequency increases or larger equipment

https://blueswandaily.com/qantas-increa ... r-2019-20/
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uhoh
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 4:29 am

DanielK wrote:
I’ve heard reports that OE-IIP Cobham’s new Q400 hasn’t flown since its first leg due to radio issues. It’s believed it will take another week for it to arrive in Perth


Its departing Saarbrucken at 0800UTC today for Heraklion.
 
a7ala
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 4:49 am

SCFlyer wrote:
rushed wrote:
FL420FT wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]

And the link from the Qantas news room, with the timings of the flights ...

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... -business/


Any thoughts on what the 787’s will do between 6am and 15:30/20:35 in BNE? QF seem to want to use these pretty efficiently so wonder where they might go during the day?


One suggestion is a BNE-AKL-BNE round-trip (replacing the A330 or 738) on the days the 789s are scheduled on BNE-SFO, considering the SFO flights depart BNE at 2030.
I'm tipping the 789 will probably sit in BNE all-day for the days it's scheduled on BNE-ORD, which depart BNE at 1530.


BNE-WLG-BNE would be a good use of the aircraft - seems to be a gap in the QF Tasman offering and B787 connection through to US would be popular.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:03 am

Air Mauritius plans to have the A339 on all PER services by early 2020

https://www.ausbt.com.au/air-mauritius- ... o-to-perth
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QuayWeeAir
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:04 am

a7ala wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
rushed wrote:

Any thoughts on what the 787’s will do between 6am and 15:30/20:35 in BNE? QF seem to want to use these pretty efficiently so wonder where they might go during the day?


One suggestion is a BNE-AKL-BNE round-trip (replacing the A330 or 738) on the days the 789s are scheduled on BNE-SFO, considering the SFO flights depart BNE at 2030.
I'm tipping the 789 will probably sit in BNE all-day for the days it's scheduled on BNE-ORD, which depart BNE at 1530.


BNE-WLG-BNE would be a good use of the aircraft - seems to be a gap in the QF Tasman offering and B787 connection through to US would be popular.


Or maybe a BNE-NAN-BNE rotation would be ideal. And then Fiji Airways can codeshare with them.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:12 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
There's currently a 787 that just sits in BNE (on the logistics apron) on the days that QF55 goes out (and there's the PER rotation on Fridays, but that's only doable because the next QF55 is Saturday evening). AKL is possible, but that's probably the only possibility aside from leaving it sitting around. I guess in the 14 or so hours that it's parked down at Logistics they probably do some minor maintenance?


I think that is the most likely outcome. At some point in time there needs to be some downtime for general line maintenance and with the 789 being pushed quite hard as it is this would be a good opportunity to use the time of line maintenance. I also think it would also allow the aircraft to be deep cleaned which are usually scheduled on a monthly basis of which is probably the most practical way as again there is not enough times between flights at other ports
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:56 am

Arrival of first scheduled A339 into Australia

https://twitter.com/PerthAirport/status ... 75974?s=20
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:23 am

DavidByrne wrote:
On the subject of the seasonal AKL-CNS, a couple of months ago I read an FNQ newspaper in which it was stated that CNS expected to do a deal (subsidy/guarantee I assume) with NZ to expand their AKL-CNS services to year round (again). Nothing further on that either. Anyone heard anything further on that?


It wouldn't surprise me. Look up who the former CNS Aviation Development Manager was, and who is the current NZ Country Manager for Canada.
 
TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:31 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas to add an extra 1800 seats per week to OOL for the busy summer period, both SYD-OOL and MEL-OOL will see frequency increases or larger equipment

https://blueswandaily.com/qantas-increa ... r-2019-20/


After stagnating for the last couple of years, it looks like domestic holiday capacity growth is back in vogue. I hazard a guess a similar announcement for HBA is not to far around the corner given it is the fastest growing airport in the country. Perhaps the upguaged 717s from SYD-OOL will be redeployed to SYD-HBA and SYD-LST over the peak season. SYD-MCY would also be a likely candidate for these.
 
TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:48 am

budgetflyer wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Speaking of HBA, a couple of years ago I was assured by Tassie tourist industry locals "in the know" who had been over to AKL promoting HBA's merits that NZ would make a big announcement and would be serving HBA within a year or so. Since then nothing. No whispers on the NZ side of the Tasman, either. Do any of our HBA posters have any scuttlebutt on this? I travel from AKL-HBA at least annually and would really welcome a direct service. Back in 1987 QF operated a weekly AKL-HBA service with 762s for a very short period, but since then . . . nothing.


HBA is scheduled to commence construction of a swing gate, which will facilitate International flights, in December 2019; the scheduled completion date is December 2020. Federal money was allocated for CIQ in the Hobart City Deal, so International flights will happen once the airport completes the necessary infrastructure.


International flights out of HBA have been talked about for years, and the airport has had limited provisions for intl ops for quite some time now (which the Skytraders flights have made use of, I believe). As much as I would love to see the resumption of flights to NZ, I am not convinced the business case stacks up. According to the link below, 16,140 passengers travelled between HBA and AKL in the 12 months from July 2017 to June 2018. This equates to an average of 22 passengers travelling in each direction, per day. Even with the potential for connections ex-AKL, I am not sure whether there is enough traffic to make this viable.

Maybe NZ might be able to make it work in the same way they launched AKL-MCY flights - a couple of flights a week, over the busiest three or four months of the year. JQ could also make a go of it by stimulating the market with low fares.

This link also provides some more info on HBA-CBR traffic; this city pairing had a PDEW of 72 over the same time period, perfect for a Q400 or 717!

https://www.anna.aero/2019/01/17/hobart-airport-800000-more-passengers-annum-2010/


That HBA-AKL figure feels too low to me; I'm not privy to the methodology used by OAG in calculating it. The demand is there. This point isn't even arguable - you don't go from a marginal full service 767 service thirty
years ago to completely unviable narrow body lower cost service now when the market has grown by at least a factor of five if not ten since then. HBA is now a destination in its own right rather than just somewhere to visit if you have any spare time after SYD and MEL.

The HBA-CBR estimate also appears low given DJ used to fill the E90, and even upgauged to 73G in particular on Mondays, plus any connecting traffic on all airlines. How many Parliamentary staff stuck with QF for the lounge despite the DJ non-stop service? HBA and CBR are the two fastest growing airports in the country. A six-weekly (no need for CBR-HBA on Saturday evenings nor HBA-CBR on Sunday mornings) 717 service would be viable provided the network logistics, e.g. another rotation out of CBR such as ADL, MCY, or TSV would be needed, fitted.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:52 pm

Upon looking into things a bit deeper it looks like there are still some more announcements coming regarding QF 789 routes

Firstly all 3 789's coming online should be in the fleet by end of November so that will be make it 11 789's in the fleet

The schedule for mid December includes

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
MEL-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly
SYD-SFO daily
SYD-AKL daily

The above can use 10 frames with 1 frame spare

Come late April 2020

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
SYD-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly (ends 25th April)
SYD-SFO daily
BNE-SFO 3 weekly
BNE-ORD 4 weekly

Based on the last week of April this would use 11 789's.

With another 3 789's due by late June 2020 this will leave the 789's due to replace 744's short. One would think Qantas will need to add another order to cover up the shortfall

So I guess the question is for December dies the extra 789 get used into Asia or extra frequencies into the US, maybe to SFO

Can we still see the 744 being retired by November 2020 or is Qantas leaving themselves short
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:35 pm

I don't want to sound like a smart ass, but some of us have been saying this for ages. While having schedules confirms this, basic arithmetic said that you can't replace 8 747s with 6 787s *and* add new routes such as BNE-ORD, BNE-SFO. Something has to give.

If we focus on just SYD-SCL/JNB/HND you could operate those routes with 4 frames, so the 3 new frames plus cancelling HKG would provide enough capacity, but this means running the fleet at 14/14 year round which is not feasible. It also means SCL cannot be increased beyond 4x weekly as there is no flexibility in the fleet to do so. Routes like YVR and charters will of course cease to exist, but that's likely to occur with the retirement on the 747 anyway.

Since Qantas started drawing down the 747 fleet every single announced milestone has slipped back. There's no reason to think that Nov 2020 won't slip either. Right now I think the chance of them being out of the fleet in 18 months is very, very low.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:30 pm

qf789 wrote:
Upon looking into things a bit deeper it looks like there are still some more announcements coming regarding QF 789 routes

Firstly all 3 789's coming online should be in the fleet by end of November so that will be make it 11 789's in the fleet

The schedule for mid December includes

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
MEL-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly
SYD-SFO daily
SYD-AKL daily

The above can use 10 frames with 1 frame spare

Come late April 2020

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
SYD-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly (ends 25th April)
SYD-SFO daily
BNE-SFO 3 weekly
BNE-ORD 4 weekly

Based on the last week of April this would use 11 789's.

With another 3 789's due by late June 2020 this will leave the 789's due to replace 744's short. One would think Qantas will need to add another order to cover up the shortfall

So I guess the question is for December dies the extra 789 get used into Asia or extra frequencies into the US, maybe to SFO

Can we still see the 744 being retired by November 2020 or is Qantas leaving themselves short


How many frames would just SYD-SCL/JNB require if both were made daily? It is possible these will be replaced by 789 but HND will not. If QF were to do some other fleet shuffling, could this be done?

Maybe QF will opt to order the Project Sunrise aircraft now which, when it arrives, will create further fleet reshuffling and may negate the need to buy any more 789s now.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 7832
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:48 pm

QF742 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Upon looking into things a bit deeper it looks like there are still some more announcements coming regarding QF 789 routes

Firstly all 3 789's coming online should be in the fleet by end of November so that will be make it 11 789's in the fleet

The schedule for mid December includes

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
MEL-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly
SYD-SFO daily
SYD-AKL daily

The above can use 10 frames with 1 frame spare

Come late April 2020

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
SYD-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly (ends 25th April)
SYD-SFO daily
BNE-SFO 3 weekly
BNE-ORD 4 weekly

Based on the last week of April this would use 11 789's.

With another 3 789's due by late June 2020 this will leave the 789's due to replace 744's short. One would think Qantas will need to add another order to cover up the shortfall

So I guess the question is for December dies the extra 789 get used into Asia or extra frequencies into the US, maybe to SFO

Can we still see the 744 being retired by November 2020 or is Qantas leaving themselves short


How many frames would just SYD-SCL/JNB require if both were made daily? It is possible these will be replaced by 789 but HND will not. If QF were to do some other fleet shuffling, could this be done?

Maybe QF will opt to order the Project Sunrise aircraft now which, when it arrives, will create further fleet reshuffling and may negate the need to buy any more 789s now.


1.5 frames each. You could dovetail with HND and SFO to operate all four routes daily with 6 frames.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6943
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 11:38 pm

qf789 wrote:
Upon looking into things a bit deeper it looks like there are still some more announcements coming regarding QF 789 routes

Firstly all 3 789's coming online should be in the fleet by end of November so that will be make it 11 789's in the fleet

The schedule for mid December includes

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
MEL-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly
SYD-SFO daily
SYD-AKL daily

The above can use 10 frames with 1 frame spare

Come late April 2020

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
SYD-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly (ends 25th April)
SYD-SFO daily
BNE-SFO 3 weekly
BNE-ORD 4 weekly

Based on the last week of April this would use 11 789's.

With another 3 789's due by late June 2020 this will leave the 789's due to replace 744's short. One would think Qantas will need to add another order to cover up the shortfall

So I guess the question is for December dies the extra 789 get used into Asia or extra frequencies into the US, maybe to SFO

Can we still see the 744 being retired by November 2020 or is Qantas leaving themselves short



The BNE-LAX terminator goes 6 weekly in DEC-JAN so uses the 11th frame.
 
vhebb
Posts: 333
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 5:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 11:48 pm

When I had a quick look yesterday in late April 2020 the 2x MEL-LAX had been and MEL-SFO was only showing 2x weekly.
 
moa999
Posts: 522
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:23 am

I can see the 2020 747 retirements occuring, as the QF schedule generally pulls back some routes during the middle of the year.
But i see a need for a small top-up order as otherwise they will have less aircraft for Dec/Jan 2020/21 compared to 2019/20
And any Sunrise order won't come in time.

Unless JQ sends say 3-4 787-8s to QF during 2020 as it begins to receive 321neos (due from mid-2020 according to last release)
(A scenario previously speculated by a few)
 
Pm3207
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2017 5:20 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 1:05 am

Seems that QF49/50 is M, W, F and Sa schedule from Feb as anticipated to align with the "two flights per day" to SFO statement (1 x SYD; 1 x MEL or BNE).

QF95/96 moves to Tu (QF96 already Tu), Th, Su.
 
QF742
Posts: 144
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:00 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:54 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
QF742 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Upon looking into things a bit deeper it looks like there are still some more announcements coming regarding QF 789 routes

Firstly all 3 789's coming online should be in the fleet by end of November so that will be make it 11 789's in the fleet

The schedule for mid December includes

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
MEL-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly
SYD-SFO daily
SYD-AKL daily

The above can use 10 frames with 1 frame spare

Come late April 2020

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
SYD-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly (ends 25th April)
SYD-SFO daily
BNE-SFO 3 weekly
BNE-ORD 4 weekly

Based on the last week of April this would use 11 789's.

With another 3 789's due by late June 2020 this will leave the 789's due to replace 744's short. One would think Qantas will need to add another order to cover up the shortfall

So I guess the question is for December dies the extra 789 get used into Asia or extra frequencies into the US, maybe to SFO

Can we still see the 744 being retired by November 2020 or is Qantas leaving themselves short


How many frames would just SYD-SCL/JNB require if both were made daily? It is possible these will be replaced by 789 but HND will not. If QF were to do some other fleet shuffling, could this be done?

Maybe QF will opt to order the Project Sunrise aircraft now which, when it arrives, will create further fleet reshuffling and may negate the need to buy any more 789s now.


1.5 frames each. You could dovetail with HND and SFO to operate all four routes daily with 6 frames.


It seems then that QF does not need to order any more 789s as all remaining 744 routes will be taken care of? The fleet will of course be tightly operated and a spare might be useful at times and for maintenance...
Last edited by QF742 on Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
QF742
Posts: 144
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:00 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:55 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
QF742 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Upon looking into things a bit deeper it looks like there are still some more announcements coming regarding QF 789 routes

Firstly all 3 789's coming online should be in the fleet by end of November so that will be make it 11 789's in the fleet

The schedule for mid December includes

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
MEL-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly
SYD-SFO daily
SYD-AKL daily

The above can use 10 frames with 1 frame spare

Come late April 2020

MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-SFO 4 weekly
MEL-LAX 2 weekly
SYD-HKG daily
BNE-LAX-JFK daily
BNE-LAX terminator 3 weekly (ends 25th April)
SYD-SFO daily
BNE-SFO 3 weekly
BNE-ORD 4 weekly

Based on the last week of April this would use 11 789's.

With another 3 789's due by late June 2020 this will leave the 789's due to replace 744's short. One would think Qantas will need to add another order to cover up the shortfall

So I guess the question is for December dies the extra 789 get used into Asia or extra frequencies into the US, maybe to SFO

Can we still see the 744 being retired by November 2020 or is Qantas leaving themselves short


How many frames would just SYD-SCL/JNB require if both were made daily? It is possible these will be replaced by 789 but HND will not. If QF were to do some other fleet shuffling, could this be done?

Maybe QF will opt to order the Project Sunrise aircraft now which, when it arrives, will create further fleet reshuffling and may negate the need to buy any more 789s now.


1.5 frames each. You could dovetail with HND and SFO to operate all four routes daily with 6 frames.


It seems then that QF does not need to order any more 789s as all remaining 744 routes will be taken care of? The fleet will of course be tightly operated and a spare might be useful at times and for maintenance...
 
ben175
Posts: 727
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:44 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:09 am

I flew the QF10 PER-MEL sector and ended up running late to airport and was certain I had missed the 60 minute check in time cutoff arriving with less than 50 minutes to spare. Luckily they still let me on and my bags made it - have the international rules on this flight been relaxed? Previously they have been super strict in my experiences.
 
Pcoder
Posts: 107
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:44 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:27 am

With the 6 747s beings replaced by the 8 789s, I think I worked it out to be a drop in seat capacity by a third. Part of this may have been deliberate as maybe the airline felt they had over capacity.

The 747-400ERs are still relatively new only arrived into the fleet in the early 2000s, so there's probably life in these planes for cargo service after their passenger days. With the delays to the a380 refurb and other issues, I could possibly see a delay as the existing 789 order looks to be already stretched quite thin.

Another point is we should be closer to knowing what aircraft has been selected for the sunrise project. If the A350 is selected, we could possibly see a few enter the fleet a bit earlier (maybe from the EY slots), maybe even as early as next year, which might be a better aircraft for Qantas for some of its new routes (PER-LHR , BNE-ORD) as the existing a350 has a larger payload and range capability then the 789.
 
User avatar
qf2220
Posts: 1667
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:16 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:53 am

Ive always been surprised that the ERs were going to be sold so soon. Given their very niche role (QF is the only operator of them) and the SCL/JNB routes go as south as they do, Id always thought they'd stay around for a bit longer. Perhaps they will...
 
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qf789
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Topic Author
Posts: 8779
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 7:03 am

MH to operate A359 to SYD on various dates during NW18/20 season

https://twitter.com/airlineroute/status ... 23457?s=21
Forum Moderator
 
Captdasbomb
Posts: 67
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:08 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:01 am

qf2220 wrote:
Ive always been surprised that the ERs were going to be sold so soon. Given their very niche role (QF is the only operator of them) and the SCL/JNB routes go as south as they do, Id always thought they'd stay around for a bit longer. Perhaps they will...

Not if the fuel price stays this high & the cost of doing a 2nd D check on a 20 year old plane.
 
Qantas029
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:09 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:26 am

Jetstar increasing MEL to DPS. ZQN and AKL over dec/jan

MEL-DPS TO 18 weekly
Good news for Melbournians, we've added an extra flight to and from #Bali for Dec and Jan on Mondays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. The flight will depart Melbourne at 07:25am and arrive in Bali at 10.20am.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JetstarAirwa ... gr%5Etweet

MEL-ZQN tp 10 weekly
The additional flights, coming into effect from December 13 until January 28, will operate on Tuesday, Fridays and Sundays, leaving Melbourne at 7.20am and arriving in the resort at 12.30pm.

https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstow ... urne-route

AKL also extra 3 weekly services
 
kriskim
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:44 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:33 am

TG will return MEL-BKK to 2 daily eff 27OCT, right now its until the end of northern winter timetable, so can still be permanent as its subject to change.

TG465/466 is currently x4 weekly, but will go back to daily, complementing daily TG461/462.
A world built upon connectivity.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 330
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:14 am

I'm curious as to why QF can't make YVR work year round? AC can't be a monopoly...
 
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qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 8779
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:37 am

YYZORD wrote:
I'm curious as to why QF can't make YVR work year round? AC can't be a monopoly...


Because they firstly don't have an aircraft available to serve it year round and there other markets such as the US which are a higher priority. On top of that QF does have codeshare agreements with both AS and WS to cover YVR and beyond
Forum Moderator
 
YYZORD
Posts: 330
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:31 am

Doesn't QF have 787-9? That's the perfect aircraft for SYD-YVR. AC serves YVR-SYD on the 777-300ER while YVR-BNE & YVR-MEL is served on the 787-9.

qf789 wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
I'm curious as to why QF can't make YVR work year round? AC can't be a monopoly...


Because they firstly don't have an aircraft available to serve it year round and there other markets such as the US which are a higher priority. On top of that QF does have codeshare agreements with both AS and WS to cover YVR and beyond
 
User avatar
SCFlyer
Posts: 271
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:36 am

YYZORD wrote:
Doesn't QF have 787-9? That's the perfect aircraft for SYD-YVR. AC serves YVR-SYD on the 777-300ER while YVR-BNE & YVR-MEL is served on the 787-9.

qf789 wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
I'm curious as to why QF can't make YVR work year round? AC can't be a monopoly...


Because they firstly don't have an aircraft available to serve it year round and there other markets such as the US which are a higher priority. On top of that QF does have codeshare agreements with both AS and WS to cover YVR and beyond


At the risk of sounding pedantic. BNE-YVR is normally a 788 (789 during peak periods or the occasional substitutions outside of peak)
 
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qf2220
Posts: 1667
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:16 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:37 am

YYZORD wrote:
Doesn't QF have 787-9? That's the perfect aircraft for SYD-YVR. AC serves YVR-SYD on the 777-300ER while YVR-BNE & YVR-MEL is served on the 787-9.

qf789 wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
I'm curious as to why QF can't make YVR work year round? AC can't be a monopoly...


Because they firstly don't have an aircraft available to serve it year round and there other markets such as the US which are a higher priority. On top of that QF does have codeshare agreements with both AS and WS to cover YVR and beyond


Yes but using that 789 elsewhere makes more money.
 
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eta unknown
Posts: 2381
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:13 am

These days AC BNE-YYZ is usually always scheduled as 788 even in peak season, although the odd 789 does show up sometimes.

Yes QF has 789's, but they are premium configured whereas YVR is predominantly an economy class market. In addition, AC has the corporate Canadian market locked up (just as QF does in AU) and Westjet is a distant competitor and therefore most QF Canada traffic will transit via LAX/SFO.
 
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SeaEagle8
Posts: 151
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:32 am

And AC SYD-YVR is usually on their 77Ls.
AC uses different aircraft for each of their Australia flights:
77Ls to SYD, 789s to MEL and 788s to BNE. YVR-AKL will also be on a 788.

Perhaps SYD-YVR on QF will become year-round with the next round of deliveries.
NSW based avgeek
 
QF742
Posts: 144
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:00 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:46 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
And AC SYD-YVR is usually on their 77Ls.
AC uses different aircraft for each of their Australia flights:
77Ls to SYD, 789s to MEL and 788s to BNE. YVR-AKL will also be on a 788.

Perhaps SYD-YVR on QF will become year-round with the next round of deliveries.


Does anyone know how MEL-YVR is going. It had been at 4 weekly for a while now. Is this due to a shortage of aircraft at AC?

Re QF and YVR. I am skeptical about seeing this go to year round. QF are increasing capacity to the US and, while not the same market, adding YVR year round would take passengers away from their US flights who would be connecting onward to Canada.
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