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Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:56 pm
by qf789
Welcome to Australian Aviation Thread July 2019. Please continue to add your comments below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1423737&p=21477737#p21477737

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:47 pm
by qf789
A few PER related things

Today SQ223/214 will see the A333 replaced with regional A359
AirAsia X resumes second flight 4 weekly for this month, operates Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday
Air Asia Lombok flights have performed rather well for the first month
Over the past month SA had operated the A332 more than the A343, so perhaps that is going to be a more regular thing
EK loads seem to be improving though QR is still kicking their backsides

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:40 pm
by ben175
qf789 wrote:
A few PER related things

Today SQ223/214 will see the A333 replaced with regional A359
AirAsia X resumes second flight 4 weekly for this month, operates Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday
Air Asia Lombok flights have performed rather well for the first month
Over the past month SA had operated the A332 more than the A343, so perhaps that is going to be a more regular thing
EK loads seem to be improving though QR is still kicking their backsides


Interesting - I was under the impression QR was doing better than EK these days? Do we think the 380 will be sticking around on this route? Saying that, I’d say June will be a strong month with all the people flocking abroad for a European summer.

I have a feeling SQ was the real winner when EY exited the market.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:49 pm
by x1234
What ETOPS rating does SAA have on their A330's for their JNB-PER flight!? I know LATAM has ETOPS 330 for SCL-AKL/MEL. Also anyone know if LATAM has loaded the SCL-SYD non-stops into their system yet? They will become MUCH more competitive to GRU on the days they operate the non-stop flight (versus stopping in AKL on the alternate days).

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:54 pm
by x1234
UPDATE: I did some Googling and SAA has ETOPS 240 on their A330's allowing JNB-PER/GRU.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:34 pm
by redroo
Jeez. It’s july!

Bring on spring :-)

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:13 am
by F100Flyer
QR900 DOH-PER diverted to Colombo last night. Arrived into PER around midnight (6hrs late) and delayed QR901 by 3.5hrs.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:18 am
by ZK-NBT

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:31 am
by SeaEagle8
ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/285156/fiji-airways-discontinues-adelaide-service-in-late-july-2019/

FJ to end ADL from late July.


That was posted as one of the last few entries in the June thread.

Possibly temporary due to the Max grounding.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:32 am
by qf789
Jetstar has extended OOL-ICN from seasonal to year round

https://blueswandaily.com/jetstar-takes ... ear-round/

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:39 am
by ZK-NBT
SeaEagle8 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/285156/fiji-airways-discontinues-adelaide-service-in-late-july-2019/

FJ to end ADL from late July.


That was posted as one of the last few entries in the June thread.

Possibly temporary due to the Max grounding.


I must have missed it. I did wonder also if the MAX grounding has something to do with it, I’m not overly convinced that it does TBH.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:43 am
by qf789
ZK-NBT wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/285156/fiji-airways-discontinues-adelaide-service-in-late-july-2019/

FJ to end ADL from late July.


That was posted as one of the last few entries in the June thread.

Possibly temporary due to the Max grounding.


I must have missed it. I did wonder also if the MAX grounding has something to do with it, I’m not overly convinced that it does TBH.


I agree, I think that scenarios like this the MAX is being used as it is convenient and fits into the current narrative, I think the truth lies elsewhere such as the route not performing up to expectation

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:21 am
by qf789
9V-SHG has taken the honours of operating the first SQ223/214 A359 rotation

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:33 am
by qf789
AirAsia currently promoting Perth and WA, wonder if this coincides with the recently launched Lombok services

https://twitter.com/AirAsia/status/1145 ... 51040?s=20

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:06 am
by oskarclare
Few things for BNE recently

Thai Airasia X commenced DMK-BNE last Wednesday. Will operate 4x weekly with A333 before changing to A339 soon
Royal Brunei starting BWN-BNE next Thursday (11/7) with A32N and will operate 4x weekly
Compass Jet expected to commence services sometime in next few months
China Southern from July to October operating A332 in lieu of A333 but still daily
Hainan Airlines increasing SZX-BNE to 3x weekly until 31/8 with all flights on A333
Eva Air adding 78J from 4th quarter replacing A333 as well as increasing to 5x weekly year-round and daily in peak periods

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:47 am
by VHZNE
oskarclare wrote:
Few things for BNE recently

Thai Airasia X commenced DMK-BNE last Wednesday. Will operate 4x weekly with A333 before changing to A339 soon


Any date on the A339 at all yet?

TIA.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:12 pm
by BAeRJ100
Cobham's first Q400 has just ferried to SNN for painting, expect it to arrive in PER before the end of the month. Three year old frame, ex D-ABQS of LGW/Air Berlin.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:01 pm
by qf789
It seems that VA 77W VH-VPH is at VCV for repairs on its fuel tank

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:03 pm
by oskarclare
VHZNE wrote:
oskarclare wrote:
Few things for BNE recently

Thai Airasia X commenced DMK-BNE last Wednesday. Will operate 4x weekly with A333 before changing to A339 soon


Any date on the A339 at all yet?

TIA.


Heard in next 2 weeks or so. Won’t be on every flight initially, probably will be once 2nd one is delivered.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 10:13 am
by CraigAnderson
Fiji Airways confirms it is pulling the plug on ADL-NAN as of July 20

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... -on-pause/

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 10:25 am
by qf789
Garuda's LCC Citilink is planning services to Australia

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... it-459394/

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:34 am
by qf789
Thai Cargo and Menzies have renewed cargo handling contract for another 5 years

https://blueswandaily.com/thai-cargo-an ... w-zealand/

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 12:00 pm
by DanielK
VH-NJE arrived at 1900 AWST ex. MKR as JTE979. It was greeted by emergency services due to a gear issue

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 4:02 pm
by ben175
qf789 wrote:
Garuda's LCC Citilink is planning services to Australia

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... it-459394/


Hopefully this won’t be at the expense of GA services, particularly to PER. GA is the only J option besides Batik.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:16 am
by qf789
BITRE out for April

Virgin numbers improved across the board, New Zealand improved somewhat with a 80.5% LF inbound and 72.8% outbound
Qatar carried more passengers in/out of PER than EK for the first time, outbound LF just under 98% for the month vs EK 96%
Batik Indonesia slowly improving coming in at just over 50%

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/o ... y_1904.pdf

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:59 am
by eamondzhang
ben175 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Garuda's LCC Citilink is planning services to Australia

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... it-459394/


Hopefully this won’t be at the expense of GA services, particularly to PER. GA is the only J option besides Batik.

Have a feeling that East Coast-DPS flight is their target due to severe competition and the nature of being a price-sensitive market; if they want to go PER they can literally do that tomorrow since it's within A320's range IMO.

Michael

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:07 am
by ben175
eamondzhang wrote:
ben175 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Garuda's LCC Citilink is planning services to Australia

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... it-459394/


Hopefully this won’t be at the expense of GA services, particularly to PER. GA is the only J option besides Batik.

Have a feeling that East Coast-DPS flight is their target due to severe competition and the nature of being a price-sensitive market; if they want to go PER they can literally do that tomorrow since it's within A320's range IMO.

Michael


I still hope GA doesn’t exit the market fully - hopefully they follow a similar model to QF at HNL - maybe 4 x weekly GA and 5 x weekly Citilink services to both SYD and MEL.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:19 am
by eamondzhang
ben175 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
ben175 wrote:

Hopefully this won’t be at the expense of GA services, particularly to PER. GA is the only J option besides Batik.

Have a feeling that East Coast-DPS flight is their target due to severe competition and the nature of being a price-sensitive market; if they want to go PER they can literally do that tomorrow since it's within A320's range IMO.

Michael


I still hope GA doesn’t exit the market fully - hopefully they follow a similar model to QF at HNL - maybe 4 x weekly GA and 5 x weekly Citilink services to both SYD and MEL.

Or even QF group's own DPS service for that matter :bouncy:

But being GA, things can change anytime so don't think we'll know until closer to the date. Just look at their LHR drama for example.

Michael

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:15 am
by aviationaware
qf789 wrote:
BITRE out for April

Virgin numbers improved across the board, New Zealand improved somewhat with a 80.5% LF inbound and 72.8% outbound
Qatar carried more passengers in/out of PER than EK for the first time, outbound LF just under 98% for the month vs EK 96%
Batik Indonesia slowly improving coming in at just over 50%



98% average load sounds like terrible yield management. They have left plenty of money on the table.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:41 am
by AsiaTravel
aviationaware wrote:
98% average load sounds like terrible yield management. They have left plenty of money on the table.


No it's not, price/demand isn't a straight line as demand is quite elastic in aviation. You are maximizing revenues by maximizing volumes and prices.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:44 am
by tullamarine
aviationaware wrote:
qf789 wrote:
BITRE out for April

Virgin numbers improved across the board, New Zealand improved somewhat with a 80.5% LF inbound and 72.8% outbound
Qatar carried more passengers in/out of PER than EK for the first time, outbound LF just under 98% for the month vs EK 96%
Batik Indonesia slowly improving coming in at just over 50%



98% average load sounds like terrible yield management. They have left plenty of money on the table.

April included school holidays, Easter and ANZAC Day which all occurred across the same few weeks so good traffic is not surprising. I flew to Europe on Maundy Thursday and saw the loads out of Melbourne on all the airlines on the night I departed and they were all pretty much chockers. As to question of yields, we do not know and never will.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:49 am
by Qantas029
LATAM new Sydney schedule out, looks like AKL is being reduced to 4 weekly! Sydney Schedule below
LA803 0615 LA802 1000 1..4.6.
LA801 0915 LA800 1100 .23.5.7

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:59 am
by QF742
Qantas029 wrote:
LATAM new Sydney schedule out, looks like AKL is being reduced to 4 weekly! Sydney Schedule below
LA803 0615 LA802 1000 1..4.6.
LA801 0915 LA800 1100 .23.5.7


I wonder how LA’s schedule would look if they weren’t having issues with their 787 fleet. I think their fleet is stretched quite thin - hence MEL and AKL now reduced.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:04 am
by aviationaware
AsiaTravel wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
98% average load sounds like terrible yield management. They have left plenty of money on the table.


No it's not, price/demand isn't a straight line as demand is quite elastic in aviation. You are maximizing revenues by maximizing volumes and prices.


Correct, but as you said demand isn't linear. Especially for higher yielding traffic it's not easy to shift demand from one day of the week to another by pricing. So a 98% load factor indicates that there were quite a few days in there where the plane was full to the brim, and that means either they hit the sweet spot exactly (quite unlikely) or they left money on the table because they undercharged the passengers.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:49 am
by SCFlyer
98% load factor may or may not be a good thing. Without knowledge of QR's yields who knows.

There were only 2 scenarios I could think of in regards to QR's 98% loads.

Best case scenario:
QR could've charged most economy passengers near (or close to full flexible) fares. In combination with full premium cabins with mostly fully paid passengers. Meaning QR would've been rolling around in cash and profit

Worst case scenario:
QR filled those flights with low yielding VFR, backpacker/tourist fares in economy and mostly "redemptions" in the premium cabins. This means QR has undercharged and/or had to discount their fares to fill their cabins, meaning they mostly lost money.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:53 am
by RyanairGuru
AsiaTravel wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
98% average load sounds like terrible yield management. They have left plenty of money on the table.


No it's not, price/demand isn't a straight line as demand is quite elastic in aviation. You are maximizing revenues by maximizing volumes and prices.


Sorry but you're wrong. Pretty much every airline in the world runs on a similar yield management model, and having an average load factor of 98% is pretty much a fail whichever way you dice it. If they can fill the aircraft at the same average yield as they would get at 80% then they are on to a winner, but that is highly unlikely in which case QR have prioritised capacity ahead of revenue management.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:35 pm
by PA515
QF742 wrote:
Qantas029 wrote:
LATAM new Sydney schedule out, looks like AKL is being reduced to 4 weekly! Sydney Schedule below
LA803 0615 LA802 1000 1..4.6.
LA801 0915 LA800 1100 .23.5.7


I wonder how LA’s schedule would look if they weren’t having issues with their 787 fleet. I think their fleet is stretched quite thin - hence MEL and AKL now reduced.


LA's schedule would look the same as all of their 787s are now flying.

PA515

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:51 pm
by eta unknown
aviationaware wrote:
98% average load sounds like terrible yield management. They have left plenty of money on the table.


Would a similar post have been made if the airline in question was QF instead of QR?

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:22 pm
by aviationaware
eta unknown wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
98% average load sounds like terrible yield management. They have left plenty of money on the table.


Would a similar post have been made if the airline in question was QF instead of QR?


Of course. It's about the number not the airline.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:22 pm
by AsiaTravel
RyanairGuru wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:

No it's not, price/demand isn't a straight line as demand is quite elastic in aviation. You are maximizing revenues by maximizing volumes and prices.


Sorry but you're wrong. Pretty much every airline in the world runs on a similar yield management model, and having an average load factor of 98% is pretty much a fail whichever way you dice it. If they can fill the aircraft at the same average yield as they would get at 80% then they are on to a winner, but that is highly unlikely in which case QR have prioritised capacity ahead of revenue management.


It's not just about yield, it's all about the right balance between volume and yield to maximize revenues. Both parameters have an upper bound, a customer won't pay $20k for a PER-DOH return in economy and you can't add more seats to an A380. Add the high elasticity of aviation in general and airlines are better off filling 98% of their plane at a lower yield than 80% at a higher yield.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:56 pm
by qf789
While some are focusing on yields the high load factor of QR does tell a story. In fact this is not a once off, these high loads have also continued into May and June with a good proportion of flights departing with 100% load factor. As for Emirates even after them reducing to daily their loads are inconsistent, some days as recent as in the past couple of weeks the difference between Emirates and Qatar has been anywhere between 50 and 100 passengers on some nights. Without a doubt the main benefactor of EK dropping down to daily has been QR. Sure some of the Asian airlines such as SQ, CX and to a lesser extent MH have also benefited.

While on the subject of MH, over the past 2 weeks the A333 has been operating quite a bit, they seem to be doing rather well to PER atm.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:01 pm
by qf789
PA515 wrote:
QF742 wrote:
Qantas029 wrote:
LATAM new Sydney schedule out, looks like AKL is being reduced to 4 weekly! Sydney Schedule below
LA803 0615 LA802 1000 1..4.6.
LA801 0915 LA800 1100 .23.5.7


I wonder how LA’s schedule would look if they weren’t having issues with their 787 fleet. I think their fleet is stretched quite thin - hence MEL and AKL now reduced.


LA's schedule would look the same as all of their 787s are now flying.

PA515


By the time this service starts LA will have taken delivery of another 2 789's, both of which are due around the same time as QF's first 2 789's

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:04 pm
by qf789
Singapore Airlines extends marketing agreement with Tourism WA for another 5 years

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... ourism-wa/

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:06 pm
by qf789
CASA safety investigators will begin inspecting REX maintenance facilities at WGA today after allegations of safety problems

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/inv ... continues/

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:08 pm
by qf789
Virgin says Qantas has not provided any new evidence regarding the CX/QF codeshare deal

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... codeshare/

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:12 pm
by qf789
Jetstar to cancel SYD-CHC services from mid October

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/113 ... ey-service

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:21 pm
by x1234
I read that all LATAM ETOPS problems are fixed. LA802 is blocked at 13 hours 15 minutes east-bound SYD-SCL (1000 to 0915) and LA803 is 14 hours 45 minutes west-bound SCL-SYD (0130 0615) in 2019. I wonder how much longer the flights are due to ETOPS 330 compared with QF27/28. LA802/LA803 will become the flight with the longest diversion point from a ETOPS point (that and Air New Zealand's AKL-EZE). MEL-SCL is downgraded to the B788 and the SYD/AKL flights (both non-stop and one-day via AKL) are now B789.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:25 pm
by myki
x1234 wrote:
I read that all LATAM ETOPS problems are fixed. LA802 is blocked at 13 hours 15 minutes east-bound SYD-SCL (1000 to 0915) and LA803 is 14 hours 45 minutes west-bound SCL-SYD (0130 0615) in 2019. I wonder how much longer the flights is due to ETOPS 330 compared with QF27/28. LA802/LA803 will become the flight with the longest diversion point from a ETOPS point (that and Air New Zealand's AKL-EZE). MEL-SCL is downgraded to the B788 and the SYD/AKL flights (both non-stop and one-day via AKL) are now B789.

How does SCL-MEL compare re diversion point, I presume very similar to SCL-SYD?

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:33 pm
by x1234
Very similar. You can see MEL-SCL on FR here: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 4#211eba53
The flight goes VERY far south to take advantage of the winds. Flightaware has a virtual showing of the path: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/LAN ... /YMML/SCEL
On the Australian/NZ side there's Christchurch & Melbourne. On the Argentinian side there's Ushuaia and Río Gallegos (the only airports that can take a B788 or B789). The bad thing is LATAM has RR engines on their 787 fleet and there's concerns of RR engine reliability. (Hopefully RR has fixed it at last!).

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:14 pm
by CraigAnderson
LATAM SYD-SCL goes non-stop on Oct 27 three days a week, remaining four days stay as SYD-AKL-SCL.

https://www.ausbt.com.au/latam-begins-n ... go-flights