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airnorth
Posts: 456
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:30 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:54 pm

AirwayBill wrote:
Interested wrote:

Do you understand how business works in the real world?

Everything that goes into a Boeing branded plane is Boeing's responsibility

Stop trying to deflect blame

Last month it was all the pilots fault. Now it's the subcontractors

Lol


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

The manufacturer of a finished product is responsible for constantly monitoring the quality of its suppliers, and rejecting elements that are not up to standard.

If a problem occurs with said product, final manufacturer will be ultimately held responsible. Boeing is no exception, they miserably failed in that regard.

Would the general public sue Foxconn if one of the components of their iPhone had a catastrophic defect? No. Apple's brand image gets tarnished. Apple faces the charges. Apple pays the compensations.


The automotive industry saw a recent example where the parts supplier was also held responsible for supplying defective air bags. The airbag fiasco at Takata was the demise of the company. The auto manufacturers were of course responsible to repair the cars on behalf of the consumer.

But in this example, it shows that at times the subcontractor will bear the financial costs of defective parts in a final product that is not theirs.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:57 pm

seahawk wrote:
I was mainly trying to point out, that any solution causes new failure modes and they might find a problematic one in the process.

I understand your point of view, but I disagree. This all depend on the architecture capabilities and margins. While it's obvious that the FAA have hit something with the actual architecture, I think that an other architecture would have allowed a such minor algorithm change without causing any new failure mode.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:16 pm

airnorth wrote:

The automotive industry saw a recent example where the parts supplier was also held responsible for supplying defective air bags. The airbag fiasco at Takata was the demise of the company. The auto manufacturers were of course responsible to repair the cars on behalf of the consumer.

But in this example, it shows that at times the subcontractor will bear the financial costs of defective parts in a final product that is not theirs.

Supplier is only liable for manufacturing defects. And even then OEM should be doing inspection on received goods.

In case of FCC the flaws are not manufacturing defects. Even if you assume RC made a mistake in s/w (which is pure speculation at this point), after Boeing performed acceptance tests for the s/w at R&D stage and OK'ed production, it is on them. Next time test better.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:21 pm

kalvado wrote:
macc wrote:
Anyone has an idea how many planes parked out of the shop? I wonder if Boeing will have to cut production rates down again soon, must be hell of a strain on the cash flow to have all these parts and planes sitting around.

production keeps running at 40 frames per month, down from 50. With almost 4 months of grounding, 150-200 frames at Boeing is a safe guess; +370 or so already delivered and parked by airlines.
With list price of $100M, actual selling price probably half of that, and at progress payments already made on those, I would guess $20M is due on delivery - or $3-4B total, out of $100B annual sales.
Looks like everyone is tight liped about progress payments on frames in production; if those are on hold as well, it is another 3-4 billion.
With $10B of cash on hand before events unfolded, and with compensations for this and that possibly paid (as cash paid out now or as a discount for future payments?), Boeing may start feeling some discomfort on their bank accounts.

Does some of the cost fit in this https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/49/subtitle-VII/part-A/subpart-iii/chapter-443 ?
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
SelseyBill
Posts: 713
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:57 pm

Interested wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
ubeema wrote:
I am lost. How Rockwell Collins wronged Boeing?


They are responsible for the design of MCAS.


Stop trying to deflect blame

Last month it was all the pilots fault. Now it's the subcontractors Lol


Exactly.

'TTailedTiger' was promoting a policy a few short weeks ago that Boeing should deny any blame for this MAX situation. Thankfully, even Boeing could see this wasn't a wise strategy. People can only address problems if they admit to having them in the first place. I would suggest that if Boeing had followed the advice of 'TTailedTiger'; they would be in a much deeper hole than the one they are in now. If you're in a hole, best advice is to stop digging.

We all want Boeing to fix this mess, and for the world to travel safely again on the 737 without any fears, but Boeing can only get back to the status quo if they own up to their shortcomings and address them face on.

Im afraid the way things are going following this latest problem with processors revealed this week, this gets deeper and darker for Boeing. The 737 is their cash-cow, and if it stops mooing, they will be in much deeper trouble.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 5:10 pm

PixelFlight wrote:


Would they have insurance against something like this?

Would an insurer underwrite it at a reasonable price?
 
hivue
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 5:31 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
I'm shocked that they are still building 40 frames a month in Renton. It shows loyalty to their workers but at some point they'll have to stop.


Loyalty to their workers likely has little to do with it. Boeing's stock has remained relatively stable (give the circumstances) but, per what I've heard on business broadcasts, if (when) they make additional significant productions cuts is when the stock price will take a hit.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 5:36 pm

hivue wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
I'm shocked that they are still building 40 frames a month in Renton. It shows loyalty to their workers but at some point they'll have to stop.


Loyalty to their workers likely has little to do with it. Boeing's stock has remained relatively stable (give the circumstances) but, per what I've heard on business broadcasts, if (when) they make additional significant productions cuts is when the stock price will take a hit.


Their 2nd quarter numbers will be interesting to see as well.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 5:42 pm

planecane wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I wonder how much Boeing will ask in compensation from Rockwell-Collins.

I wonder whether Boeing will compensate the airlines for the missed fuel burn delta. The business case of buying and operating the MAX is currently not working out for the airlines. They have a competitive disadvantage vs. the NEO operators.

You could argue they are saving fuel by cancelling all those flights! :-)


Yes for sure the Max 737 is currently the best plane ever designed for the environment

Zero emissions
 
ubeema
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Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:48 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 6:06 pm

hivue wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
I'm shocked that they are still building 40 frames a month in Renton. It shows loyalty to their workers but at some point they'll have to stop.


Loyalty to their workers likely has little to do with it. Boeing's stock has remained relatively stable (give the circumstances) but, per what I've heard on business broadcasts, if (when) they make additional significant productions cuts is when the stock price will take a hit.

Agreed. Protect stock price talking points which Muilenburg has been doing all along reached the point of diminishing returns. Thus a more measured response with no clear timeline about the latest FAA finding. Compound the multiple failed self imposed deadlines, any further production cuts will send a very bad signal to Wall Street.
 
airnorth
Posts: 456
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 6:16 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
airnorth wrote:

The automotive industry saw a recent example where the parts supplier was also held responsible for supplying defective air bags. The airbag fiasco at Takata was the demise of the company. The auto manufacturers were of course responsible to repair the cars on behalf of the consumer.

But in this example, it shows that at times the subcontractor will bear the financial costs of defective parts in a final product that is not theirs.

Supplier is only liable for manufacturing defects. And even then OEM should be doing inspection on received goods.

In case of FCC the flaws are not manufacturing defects. Even if you assume RC made a mistake in s/w (which is pure speculation at this point), after Boeing performed acceptance tests for the s/w at R&D stage and OK'ed production, it is on them. Next time test better.


I see what you are saying, but my assumption in the case of the airbags is that both the supplier/manufacturer of the airbags, and the manufacturer of the many brands of cars thought, or assumed that the airbags met spec's. I believe the issue was found to be an issue with quality control, an issue that continued on for some time. One of the main differences though, was Takata did eventually accept the blame and responsibility.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 6:30 pm

Interested wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
ubeema wrote:
I am lost. How Rockwell Collins wronged Boeing?


They are responsible for the design of MCAS.


Do you understand how business works in the real world?

Everything that goes into a Boeing branded plane is Boeing's responsibility

Stop trying to deflect blame

Last month it was all the pilots fault. Now it's the subcontractors

Lol


No, you don't seem to know how it works. Ford didn't take all of the blame for their SUV issues in early 2000's. Firestone was liable as well.
 
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enzo011
Posts: 1901
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 6:32 pm

uta999 wrote:
Is this whole sorry MAX saga indicative of aircraft design in general? Little has improved over the last 30 years, it just keeps getting worse. A rush to the bottom. Somehow we have gone from the 707/DC-8 to the 747/Concorde, then fallen off a cliff in terms of design and innovation, back to the 1970s. Pretty soon LCC will be offering wooden seats and a bucket (for an extra fee). Boeing may have come up with the MAX and MCAS, but its the airlines that are leading this route to all things crap.



I don't think that is fair. Aircraft have become safer than ever, MAX aside. The 777, A380, 787 and A350 has had stellar safety records recently and the A350 has had a great introduction into service. I also don't know how you would compare the early designs to the new ones, it is a tube that flies. How much different can you make it to make it exciting? If you look at the wings of the new aircraft and how they operate in flight, I fail to see how you could be bored when you compare it to the older designs.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 6:34 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
Interested wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

They are responsible for the design of MCAS.


Stop trying to deflect blame

Last month it was all the pilots fault. Now it's the subcontractors Lol


Exactly.

'TTailedTiger' was promoting a policy a few short weeks ago that Boeing should deny any blame for this MAX situation. Thankfully, even Boeing could see this wasn't a wise strategy. People can only address problems if they admit to having them in the first place. I would suggest that if Boeing had followed the advice of 'TTailedTiger'; they would be in a much deeper hole than the one they are in now. If you're in a hole, best advice is to stop digging.

We all want Boeing to fix this mess, and for the world to travel safely again on the 737 without any fears, but Boeing can only get back to the status quo if they own up to their shortcomings and address them face on.

Im afraid the way things are going following this latest problem with processors revealed this week, this gets deeper and darker for Boeing. The 737 is their cash-cow, and if it stops mooing, they will be in much deeper trouble.


If you think the pilots and aielines will be blameless in the accident reports then you aren't paying attention. Both crews made mistakes. The previous Lion Air crew faced the same situation yet they got the plane on the ground safely. And Lion Air repeatedly oushed a malfunctioning aircraft back to the flight line.
 
ubeema
Posts: 410
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:48 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:02 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Interested wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

They are responsible for the design of MCAS.


Do you understand how business works in the real world?

Everything that goes into a Boeing branded plane is Boeing's responsibility

Stop trying to deflect blame

Last month it was all the pilots fault. Now it's the subcontractors

Lol


No, you don't seem to know how it works. Ford didn't take all of the blame for their SUV issues in early 2000's. Firestone was liable as well.

Since you hellbent on R-C liability, can you clarify for us what were their involvement when Boeing decided to unilaterally do away with MCASv0.1 (0.6 deg AND) in favor of MCASv1 (2.5 deg AND or 0.27deg/sec). Also is R-C involved in MCASv2 ongoing development?
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:13 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
Interested wrote:

Stop trying to deflect blame

Last month it was all the pilots fault. Now it's the subcontractors Lol


Exactly.

'TTailedTiger' was promoting a policy a few short weeks ago that Boeing should deny any blame for this MAX situation. Thankfully, even Boeing could see this wasn't a wise strategy. People can only address problems if they admit to having them in the first place. I would suggest that if Boeing had followed the advice of 'TTailedTiger'; they would be in a much deeper hole than the one they are in now. If you're in a hole, best advice is to stop digging.

We all want Boeing to fix this mess, and for the world to travel safely again on the 737 without any fears, but Boeing can only get back to the status quo if they own up to their shortcomings and address them face on.

Im afraid the way things are going following this latest problem with processors revealed this week, this gets deeper and darker for Boeing. The 737 is their cash-cow, and if it stops mooing, they will be in much deeper trouble.


If you think the pilots and aielines will be blameless in the accident reports then you aren't paying attention. Both crews made mistakes. The previous Lion Air crew faced the same situation yet they got the plane on the ground safely. And Lion Air repeatedly oushed a malfunctioning aircraft back to the flight line.

Oh, just stop it already with this childish blame game. You need to recognize hyperbole when you see it, and ignore it for what it is. Besides, it's actually been quite a long while since anyone's written "100% Boeing's fault." You're the one who's now bringing this discussion back to blame.

As to what problems we should tackle first, the evidence is quite clear that the aircraft is the primary problem. Crews all over the world are flying around in 7000+ NG's and they're not crashing them nose first in a high-speed dive.

There's also a difference between recognizing that the crews could have done something different, versus holding them responsible for the accidents. If they had crashed a perfectly fine aircraft, that would be different. However, at this point, it's impossible to argue that the MAX, as originally certified, was "perfectly fine."

So, let's stop bringing up the crews, okay? We haven't learned ANYTHING new about their actions in a VERY long time. On the other hand, the revelations about Boeing and the FAA just keep pouring in. It's perfectly legit that our conversation be focused in that direction.

So, cut it out with this "but, the pilots(!)" bullcrap. Move on, already.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:16 pm

Of course every pilot could have done something different when faced with this terrible problem to solve

That's humans for you

The planes attempted numerous times to crash themselves and succeeded 2 out of 3 times

Boeing entirely to blame for their flawed designs
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:51 pm

aerolimani wrote:
Besides, it's actually been quite a long while since anyone's written "100% Boeing's fault."


And yet the very next post after yours is claiming just that. Instead of getting mad at me, how about educating the ignorant people who want to see Boeing fail? I'm on record for not wanting any aircraft manufacturer to fail. I was very much against Airbus taking the C Series and Boeing getting together with Embraer. How any so-called aviation enthusiasts could hate an aircraft manufacturer is just absurd.
 
ubeema
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:21 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Besides, it's actually been quite a long while since anyone's written "100% Boeing's fault."


And yet the very next post after yours is claiming just that. Instead of getting mad at me, how about educating the ignorant people who want to see Boeing fail? I'm on record for not wanting any aircraft manufacturer to fail. I was very much against Airbus taking the C Series and Boeing getting together with Embraer. How any so-called aviation enthusiasts could hate an aircraft manufacturer is just absurd.

Perhaps you should take a page out of your own book? Most on this thread wanted Boeing to take responsibility full on without mincing words and make the loss of 346 people a quick fix for the sake of protecting stock price. Yet where are we? The fix supposedly to have been finalized end of April is back to the drawing board. You should question why Boeing shot themselves in both feet so many times with deadlines only they agreed to. Now even customers are forced to re-update the public on a monthly basis about future schedules, you know well this is not good for business and PR. Remember measure twice-cut once!
A return to service/ungrounding should have only been published/estimated once regulators had an opportunity to fully review the fix and its implementation. It was also very if ignorant of you to cast blame on deceased crews without a final report fully assessing the circumstances and chain of events that got them there. You are on the record for that, aren’t you?
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:33 pm

ubeema wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Besides, it's actually been quite a long while since anyone's written "100% Boeing's fault."


And yet the very next post after yours is claiming just that. Instead of getting mad at me, how about educating the ignorant people who want to see Boeing fail? I'm on record for not wanting any aircraft manufacturer to fail. I was very much against Airbus taking the C Series and Boeing getting together with Embraer. How any so-called aviation enthusiasts could hate an aircraft manufacturer is just absurd.

Perhaps you should take a page out of your own book? Most on this thread wanted Boeing to take responsibility full on without mincing words and make the loss of 346 people a quick fix for the sake of protecting stock price. Yet where are we? The fix supposedly to have been finalized end of April is back to the drawing board. You should question why Boeing shot themselves in both feet so many times with deadlines only they agreed to. Now even customers are forced to re-update the public on a monthly basis about future schedules, you know well this is not good for business and PR. Remember measure twice-cut once!
A return to service/ungrounding should have only been published/estimated once regulators had an opportunity to fully review the fix and its implementation. It was also very if ignorant of you to cast blame on deceased crews without a final report fully assessing the circumstances and chain of events that got them there. You are on the record for that, aren’t you?


Yes, I am quite confident the crews and especially Lion Air will receive part of the blame. Do you think an airline like KLM or BA would dispatch an airplane that had been written up three times for the same problem? No, they wouldn't. It would have been sent to the maintenance base and wouldn't have left until they were certain they had identified the problem and made sure it was corrected.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:34 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
If you think the pilots and aielines will be blameless in the accident reports then you aren't paying attention. Both crews made mistakes. The previous Lion Air crew faced the same situation yet they got the plane on the ground safely. And Lion Air repeatedly oushed a malfunctioning aircraft back to the flight line.



Off course they made mistakes, just like the design of MCAS from Boeing was a mistake. If Boeing had done its job to perfection, which seem to be required of the pilots of both flights, then there would not have been the loss of the aircraft. Also, the previous flight had something the two crews who had the accident didn't, a fellow pilot in the jumpseat who was helping to monitor and give advice. Maybe that is the solution, have a three member crew to deal with the extra work Boeing gives to the pilots?
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:35 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Besides, it's actually been quite a long while since anyone's written "100% Boeing's fault."


And yet the very next post after yours is claiming just that. Instead of getting mad at me, how about educating the ignorant people who want to see Boeing fail? I'm on record for not wanting any aircraft manufacturer to fail. I was very much against Airbus taking the C Series and Boeing getting together with Embraer. How any so-called aviation enthusiasts could hate an aircraft manufacturer is just absurd.


I don't want Boeing to fail

I want them to take full responsibility for this never happening again

I want them to put safety first and show they have learnt from their mistakes

Diverting blame won't achieve that

I want to trust Boeing again

Whilst boeing supporting posters like you try to divert blame I find it very hard to trust anything that's happening

I think you would do Boeing a favour by just letting them fix the plane now and not trying to defend what is indefensible IMO
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:43 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
I'm shocked that they are still building 40 frames a month in Renton. It shows loyalty to their workers but at some point they'll have to stop.

https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing- ... ked-2019-6

The three key factors determining production volume, will be the contracts with CFM and Spirit.

Supplier contracts are banded, affording both parties flexibility, so presumably 40 per month is the lowest level before incurring price resets and penalties.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:55 pm

kalvado wrote:
macc wrote:
Anyone has an idea how many planes parked out of the shop? I wonder if Boeing will have to cut production rates down again soon, must be hell of a strain on the cash flow to have all these parts and planes sitting around.

production keeps running at 40 frames per month, down from 50. With almost 4 months of grounding, 150-200 frames at Boeing is a safe guess; +370 or so already delivered and parked by airlines.
With list price of $100M, actual selling price probably half of that, and at progress payments already made on those, I would guess $20M is due on delivery - or $3-4B total, out of $100B annual sales.
Looks like everyone is tight liped about progress payments on frames in production; if those are on hold as well, it is another 3-4 billion.
With $10B of cash on hand before events unfolded, and with compensations for this and that possibly paid (as cash paid out now or as a discount for future payments?), Boeing may start feeling some discomfort on their bank accounts.

Milestone / progress payments for all stages of production must have flat-lined. Even if the customer wants to pay, no financier is going to authorise. The exception is where the customer has contracted directly with CFM - they will be liable for engine milestone payments (but not the last two - customer delivery of the aircraft and withholding payment).

Within 30-60 days, Boeing must reach the point where they start production of aircraft for which they only hold conditional orders (either as standalone or follow on tranches), because no customer will go unconditional with the present uncertainty, and even if they want to, no financier will fund the milestone payment associated with going unconditional. This is perhaps where the IAG LOI comes into to play, acting as a breakeven safety net in the event some currently conditional orders, for which aircraft are built, do not subsequently go unconditional.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:58 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
And Lion Air repeatedly oushed a malfunctioning aircraft back to the flight line.

How would/could/should they have known that? (assuming, you meant the doomed plane).
Do you have any evidence that they did not follow Boeing approved maintenance procedures?
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:01 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
If you think the pilots and airlines will be blameless in the accident reports then you aren't paying attention.
The biggest mistake the crew made on the days of the crashes was to get out of bed that morning. How can you 'blame' the airlines and pilots about a piece of kit that Boeing had not told them about? I know pilots are talented folks, but they don't have ESP. I think your stance here may be missing the point. Boeing employs the very best aeronautic engineers in the world, no doubt; but even in their collective brilliance, they didn't see these MAX issues coming. Aside from the financial losses here and the 346 poor souls that perished, Boeings' very reputation for excellence is taking a real pounding internationally. I heard a crew member at an all-Airbus airline I flew on the other day joke; "if its a Boeing; I aint going". Just mull that over for a few seconds, and think about reputations, and how you earn them.......

TTailedTiger wrote:
Both crews made mistakes. The previous Lion Air crew faced the same situation yet they got the plane on the ground safely.
.......so why didn't Boeing react sooner and more decisively then? They had had numerous warnings from other airline crews of MAX problems, but failed to take action. Just reinforces the view that Boeing have 'share-price ranked higher than safety', and that is a real deep-rooted organisational problem, and folks who share your view 'T-Tail' are in denial of.......

TTailedTiger wrote:
......and Lion Air repeatedly oushed (?) a malfunctioning aircraft back to the flight line.
.......maybe because Boeing had failed to advise airlines of the MCAS, and in order to cut corners and costs, had done so to avoid any training requirements.........

I appreciate your evident loyalty to Boeing 'T-Tail, but sometimes you simply cannot defend the indefensible.........
Last edited by SelseyBill on Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
marcelh
Posts: 1027
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:10 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
Interested wrote:

Stop trying to deflect blame

Last month it was all the pilots fault. Now it's the subcontractors Lol


Exactly.

'TTailedTiger' was promoting a policy a few short weeks ago that Boeing should deny any blame for this MAX situation. Thankfully, even Boeing could see this wasn't a wise strategy. People can only address problems if they admit to having them in the first place. I would suggest that if Boeing had followed the advice of 'TTailedTiger'; they would be in a much deeper hole than the one they are in now. If you're in a hole, best advice is to stop digging.

We all want Boeing to fix this mess, and for the world to travel safely again on the 737 without any fears, but Boeing can only get back to the status quo if they own up to their shortcomings and address them face on.

Im afraid the way things are going following this latest problem with processors revealed this week, this gets deeper and darker for Boeing. The 737 is their cash-cow, and if it stops mooing, they will be in much deeper trouble.


If you think the pilots and aielines will be blameless in the accident reports then you aren't paying attention. Both crews made mistakes. The previous Lion Air crew faced the same situation yet they got the plane on the ground safely. And Lion Air repeatedly oushed a malfunctioning aircraft back to the flight line.

And still they are able not to kill their passengers in the NG’s they’re flying.....
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:19 pm

smartplane wrote:
Within 30-60 days, Boeing must reach the point where they start production of aircraft for which they only hold conditional orders (either as standalone or follow on tranches), because no customer will go unconditional with the present uncertainty, and even if they want to, no financier will fund the milestone payment associated with going unconditional. This is perhaps where the IAG LOI comes into to play, acting as a breakeven safety net in the event some currently conditional orders, for which aircraft are built, do not subsequently go unconditional.

Not sure what you mean by "conditional". As far as I understand, MAX backlog is 4000+ frames, which is more than 6 years worth of production. Not sure how many of those are firm - seems like a lot; but if it is 1/4, then 1000 is more than 1.5 year of production.
With the lead times for major assemblies, order has to be committed for at least a few months out, so again 6 month
Of you are saying something else legally happens within half a year before delivery?
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:19 pm

hivue wrote:
sillystrings wrote:
I don't know. To me this argument sounds like "the purpose of a wall switch is to provide current to the light bulb, not to turn the light on".


That argument would be valid except for the fact there are real stall prevention systems -- systems that actually prevent the pilot from stalling the airplane. MCAS is not one of them.


Why does the failure mode analysis for MCAS include the pilot recognizing runaway stabilizer trim, but the "stall prevention system" definition many are using here excludes the pilot (prevents pilot from stalling)?

Ie, the system needs the pilot in case it screws up, but when it's working fine, get out of the way. (and the AOA disagree is an indicator if its working fine)
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:27 pm

marcelh wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:

Exactly.

'TTailedTiger' was promoting a policy a few short weeks ago that Boeing should deny any blame for this MAX situation. Thankfully, even Boeing could see this wasn't a wise strategy. People can only address problems if they admit to having them in the first place. I would suggest that if Boeing had followed the advice of 'TTailedTiger'; they would be in a much deeper hole than the one they are in now. If you're in a hole, best advice is to stop digging.

We all want Boeing to fix this mess, and for the world to travel safely again on the 737 without any fears, but Boeing can only get back to the status quo if they own up to their shortcomings and address them face on.

Im afraid the way things are going following this latest problem with processors revealed this week, this gets deeper and darker for Boeing. The 737 is their cash-cow, and if it stops mooing, they will be in much deeper trouble.


If you think the pilots and aielines will be blameless in the accident reports then you aren't paying attention. Both crews made mistakes. The previous Lion Air crew faced the same situation yet they got the plane on the ground safely. And Lion Air repeatedly oushed a malfunctioning aircraft back to the flight line.

And still they are able not to kill their passengers in the NG’s they’re flying.....


See this is why I can't take some of you seriously. Pilots have crashed the NG. More than once.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2822
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:43 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
marcelh wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

If you think the pilots and aielines will be blameless in the accident reports then you aren't paying attention. Both crews made mistakes. The previous Lion Air crew faced the same situation yet they got the plane on the ground safely. And Lion Air repeatedly oushed a malfunctioning aircraft back to the flight line.

And still they are able not to kill their passengers in the NG’s they’re flying.....


See this is why I can't take some of you seriously. Pilots have crashed the NG. More than once.

It is called "statistics". And statistics shows that crash rate on NG is way lower, even at Lion.
Or, if you look at things at a different angle:
Boeing is in deep shit. MAX is grounded, compensations are mounting. Final reports - which are still months out - will not lift the grounding and will not absolve Boeing of compensation payments to airlines.
The only relief they may have from the share of fault assigned to other parties is reducing - not totally eliminating - Boeing's share of compensation payments for 2 crashes, which is a relatively minor amount of money in ongoing situation.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:03 pm

kalvado wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Within 30-60 days, Boeing must reach the point where they start production of aircraft for which they only hold conditional orders (either as standalone or follow on tranches), because no customer will go unconditional with the present uncertainty, and even if they want to, no financier will fund the milestone payment associated with going unconditional. This is perhaps where the IAG LOI comes into to play, acting as a breakeven safety net in the event some currently conditional orders, for which aircraft are built, do not subsequently go unconditional.

Not sure what you mean by "conditional". As far as I understand, MAX backlog is 4000+ frames, which is more than 6 years worth of production. Not sure how many of those are firm - seems like a lot; but if it is 1/4, then 1000 is more than 1.5 year of production.
With the lead times for major assemblies, order has to be committed for at least a few months out, so again 6 month
Of you are saying something else legally happens within half a year before delivery?

Three financial stages to acquiring a commercial aircraft. LoI/MoU. Small deposit, fully refundable. This step often incorporated in the next step. Conditional contract. Larger deposit. Not refundable in cash, but often 100% transferable. Unconditional contract, larger milestone payment, financier on board, OEM's start production (air frame and engines).

Very unusual for an OEM to build without the contract going unconditional, unless prepared to have white tails in storage.

If the MAX backlog is 4,000+, all those being built at the time of the grounding, plus some of those soon to be started, will be (or should have been) unconditional orders.

Even those aircraft whose build started prior to the grounding, and for which Boeing hold unconditional contracts, may/will not have had all milestone payments made since the grounding.

For aircraft whose build was due to start after the grounding, many customers and their financiers, would have been persuaded by Boeing's optimism for return to service by June / July, to go unconditional and make initial milestone payments.

But now, the sentiment has changed, and even if customers remain optimistic, financiers are less so. Can my customer finance an aircraft they cannot use, AND retain an aircraft that was to be used to partially finance the new acquisition?

When an order becomes unconditional, it infers none of the parties (OEM, purchaser and financier) can cancel or back out of the transaction.

In contrast, a conditional order provides exits, the most common of which are finance (by far the most frequently used), delivery and performance.

Taking a hypothetical 100 unit aircraft acquisition, consisting of 10 tranches of 100 aircraft (though sometimes the first tranche will be 11 or 12 units, and the last 8 or 9).

As at today, Tranche One may be unconditional, with the OEM already part way through delivery. Tranche Two may have just become unconditional. Tranches 3-7 may be conditional, and Tranches 8-10 still LoI/MoU/options.

For Tranche One, milestone payments will be different for every aircraft, reflecting the different stages of production and delivery.

Boeing must be in a whole world of financial discomfort. MAX production continues, with an increasingly larger proportion being started with conditional, not unconditional orders.

Milestone payments are not not being made, but Boeing will still be paying Spirit and CFM.

No deliveries or withholding payments (the latter is the final payment held to cover warranty issues, so affects already delivered aircraft now grounded).

Meanwhile, customers with retrospective credits (most of them), will demand the credits accrue as if MAX aircraft were delivered on time.

Air frame and engine OEM's purchase / supply contracts contain water tight arbitration and confidentiality clauses, so just minimum market disclosures (another good reason retrospective credits are used in lieu of discounts).
 
kalvado
Posts: 2822
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:14 pm

smartplane wrote:
Three financial stages to acquiring a commercial aircraft. LoI/MoU. Small deposit, fully refundable. This step often incorporated in the next step. Conditional contract. Larger deposit. Not refundable in cash, but often 100% transferable. Unconditional contract, larger milestone payment, financier on board, OEM's start production (air frame and engines).

Thank you for details!
Can you clarify what does the term"firm order"&"option" which is often used in public communications stands for in this context? The way you described it, everything is an option until the contract is firmed...
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:37 pm

kalvado wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Three financial stages to acquiring a commercial aircraft. LoI/MoU. Small deposit, fully refundable. This step often incorporated in the next step. Conditional contract. Larger deposit. Not refundable in cash, but often 100% transferable. Unconditional contract, larger milestone payment, financier on board, OEM's start production (air frame and engines).

Thank you for details!
Can you clarify what does the term"firm order"&"option" which is often used in public communications stands for in this context? The way you described it, everything is an option until the contract is firmed...

PR and media would describe nearly every acquisition status as a firm order.

The only true firm order, would be an unconditional order, but in general, unconditional and conditional orders are placed under the same umbrella as a firm order. Definitely many times firmer than an LoI, MoU or option, which are used interchangeably, with at least 50 shades of grey.
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 21834
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 3:12 am

hivue wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
I'm shocked that they are still building 40 frames a month in Renton. It shows loyalty to their workers but at some point they'll have to stop.


Loyalty to their workers likely has little to do with it. Boeing's stock has remained relatively stable (give the circumstances) but, per what I've heard on business broadcasts, if (when) they make additional significant productions cuts is when the stock price will take a hit.


They also have contractual obligations to their suppliers and whatnot to take parts. Given that, also makes sense to continue producing them as long as possible from a logistical POV because once the grounding is lifted, Boeing only has to modify the existing frames and then they can deliver them all very quickly. But if the grounding goes on for a very long time, other logistical pressures (financial, places to put the frames) will become more important and may force Boeing to slow or halt production.

The only pitfall is if the modifications require major structural changes. For example (and this is a very remote possibility to verging on impossible) let's suppose that the ultimate solution is to reposition the entire engine nacelle, requiring major changes to the wing. Then Boeing would have to scrap the existing frames (or at least remove their wings). Again, not likely. The modifications will probably be software-related and any aerodynamic modifications would take the form of a vortex control device or something that can be added easily.
-Doc Lightning-

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767333ER
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 3:52 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Besides, it's actually been quite a long while since anyone's written "100% Boeing's fault."


And yet the very next post after yours is claiming just that. Instead of getting mad at me, how about educating the ignorant people who want to see Boeing fail? I'm on record for not wanting any aircraft manufacturer to fail. I was very much against Airbus taking the C Series and Boeing getting together with Embraer. How any so-called aviation enthusiasts could hate an aircraft manufacturer is just absurd.

See here's the thing, you're talking about enthusiasts which is basically the equivalent of a fan. Now in sports for example fans are seen to be more or less dumb or ignorant. This is all besides the point however as I don't see how anyone could possibly like a company that makes planes that fly themselves into the ground, falsifies documents, and fires and threatens to sue employees that caught nonconformities on the assembly line. I for one sure don't like organizations that cover things up. I suppose the only people that could are nationalists or otherwise ill informed people.
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2 ears for spatial hearing, 2 eyes for depth perception, 2 ears for balance... How did Boeing think 1 sensor was good enough?!
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 4:02 am

767333ER wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Besides, it's actually been quite a long while since anyone's written "100% Boeing's fault."


And yet the very next post after yours is claiming just that. Instead of getting mad at me, how about educating the ignorant people who want to see Boeing fail? I'm on record for not wanting any aircraft manufacturer to fail. I was very much against Airbus taking the C Series and Boeing getting together with Embraer. How any so-called aviation enthusiasts could hate an aircraft manufacturer is just absurd.

See here's the thing, you're talking about enthusiasts which is basically the equivalent of a fan. Now in sports for example fans are seen to be more or less dumb or ignorant. This is all besides the point however as I don't see how anyone could possibly like a company that makes planes that fly themselves into the ground, falsifies documents, and fires and threatens to sue employees that caught nonconformities on the assembly line. I for one sure don't like organizations that cover things up. I suppose the only people that could are nationalists or otherwise ill informed people.


Maybe I see through the faux outrage. Some of is realize Boeong isn't alone in having an airplane with a defect or design flaw.

But Boeing does need new leadership. Not just because of this bit the NMA should have been launched a long time ago. They are being way too conservative in that market. I can't blame them for not launching an NSA. There was no engine for it and as far as I know there stll isn't.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7146
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 4:41 am

Spotted this whilst having breakfast this morning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48872395

The MAX is still appearing as headline news in national media …

Rgds
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 6:00 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
767333ER wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

And yet the very next post after yours is claiming just that. Instead of getting mad at me, how about educating the ignorant people who want to see Boeing fail? I'm on record for not wanting any aircraft manufacturer to fail. I was very much against Airbus taking the C Series and Boeing getting together with Embraer. How any so-called aviation enthusiasts could hate an aircraft manufacturer is just absurd.

See here's the thing, you're talking about enthusiasts which is basically the equivalent of a fan. Now in sports for example fans are seen to be more or less dumb or ignorant. This is all besides the point however as I don't see how anyone could possibly like a company that makes planes that fly themselves into the ground, falsifies documents, and fires and threatens to sue employees that caught nonconformities on the assembly line. I for one sure don't like organizations that cover things up. I suppose the only people that could are nationalists or otherwise ill informed people.


Maybe I see through the faux outrage. Some of is realize Boeong isn't alone in having an airplane with a defect or design flaw.

But Boeing does need new leadership. Not just because of this bit the NMA should have been launched a long time ago. They are being way too conservative in that market. I can't blame them for not launching an NSA. There was no engine for it and as far as I know there stll isn't.


350 dead - 5000 more people with their families devastated as a result

"Faux Outrage"

Says it all

If there are any key decision makers at Boeing with the same attitude as you - then maybe Boeing can actually fail after all

And if so it will be fully deserved

Let's hope for Boeing's sake you are just a severe outlier

Disregard the public at your peril
 
marcelh
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:02 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
marcelh wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

If you think the pilots and aielines will be blameless in the accident reports then you aren't paying attention. Both crews made mistakes. The previous Lion Air crew faced the same situation yet they got the plane on the ground safely. And Lion Air repeatedly oushed a malfunctioning aircraft back to the flight line.

And still they are able not to kill their passengers in the NG’s they’re flying.....


See this is why I can't take some of you seriously. Pilots have crashed the NG. More than once.

It’s obvious you are unaware of what we call “statistics”. Last year, how many flights have been made with the NG and ended with a hull loss and killing everyone on board? And the MAX?
If you ignore those facts, I’m afraid you’re clear view is somehow “blurred” by your enthousiasm for Boeing.
 
Blotto
Posts: 133
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:09 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you think an airline like KLM or BA would dispatch an airplane that had been written up three times for the same problem? No, they wouldn't. It would have been sent to the maintenance base and wouldn't have left until they were certain they had identified the problem and made sure it was corrected.


That's just wrong
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:15 am

Blotto wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you think an airline like KLM or BA would dispatch an airplane that had been written up three times for the same problem? No, they wouldn't. It would have been sent to the maintenance base and wouldn't have left until they were certain they had identified the problem and made sure it was corrected.


That's just wrong


We have a very wide difference of opinion then. BA and KLM are not in the same category as Lion Air.
 
rheinwaldner
Posts: 1859
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:17 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
marcelh wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

If you think the pilots and aielines will be blameless in the accident reports then you aren't paying attention. Both crews made mistakes. The previous Lion Air crew faced the same situation yet they got the plane on the ground safely. And Lion Air repeatedly oushed a malfunctioning aircraft back to the flight line.

And still they are able not to kill their passengers in the NG’s they’re flying.....


See this is why I can't take some of you seriously. Pilots have crashed the NG. More than once.

You demonstrate total ignorance about impact of the failed MAX design. NGs would have crashed by the hundreds, if they would be affected by a similarly dangerous design. Even the worst NG pilots happily contribute to the phenomenal safety record of the 737 family sans MAX.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
rheinwaldner
Posts: 1859
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:20 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Maybe I see through the faux outrage. Some of is realize Boeong isn't alone in having an airplane with a defect or design flaw.

The MAX is the first aircraft since many decades which brought us back a crash rate that was typical in the 1960s. Its seems, some have not realized that fact....
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
macc
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:37 am

smartplane wrote:
kalvado wrote:
smartplane wrote:


Milestone payments are not not being made, but Boeing will still be paying Spirit and CFM.



Is Boeing paying for the engines or the airlines, as is the case usually with bigger planes? I remember that Boeing said CFM keeps production rates to compensate for the troubles in the beginning. Now, if Boeing has to pay 100 engines a month, that's quite some cash.

If its the airlines, I don't see them paying either.
I exchanged political frustration with sexual boredom. better spoil a girl than the world
 
cuban8
Posts: 253
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:38 am

Their 2nd quarter numbers will be interesting to see as well.[/quote]

Without starting a flame war about program accounting.

Would it be possible for Boeing to make a program accounting scheme for the B737 MAX program (since they have a huge backlog), in order to keep Wall Street “calm” for Q2, Q3, Q4 financial reports?

Would that help keeping the Boeing stock price up and please financial institutions/investors?

Do note, this is a question about potential tools Boeing can use to please Wall Street and not about the legality of program accounting.
When business goes to hell, you get rid of three things. Your private jet, your yacht and your mistress..........and most importantly in that order.
~ Russian Billionaire ~
 
marcelh
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:53 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you think an airline like KLM or BA would dispatch an airplane that had been written up three times for the same problem? No, they wouldn't. It would have been sent to the maintenance base and wouldn't have left until they were certain they had identified the problem and made sure it was corrected.


And yet Lion Air is capable of flying the NG without converting them into a lawn dart....
 
majano
Posts: 272
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:02 am

astuteman wrote:
Spotted this whilst having breakfast this morning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48872395

The MAX is still appearing as headline news in national media …

Rgds

I read that article as well early this morning. The sense of loss these individuals and families are going through must be unimaginable.
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:04 am

It's ok

Boeing have decided to only supply planes to airlines like KLM and BA from now on

It's their new business plan. It means they don't have to worry about plane defects or flaws as much
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2492
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:36 am

marcelh wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you think an airline like KLM or BA would dispatch an airplane that had been written up three times for the same problem? No, they wouldn't. It would have been sent to the maintenance base and wouldn't have left until they were certain they had identified the problem and made sure it was corrected.


And yet Lion Air is capable of flying the NG without converting them into a lawn dart....


Wrong again. Lion Air has crashed the NG.
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