Virtual737
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:21 pm

asdf wrote:
that alone is a big red hering that the whole case of the very unusual engine position is not that simple and that harmless


Did you mean red flag?
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:47 pm

Interested wrote:
The claim that because the Lion air flight had no problems with MCAS after it was turned off and all is ok without MCAS isnt that convincing to me as an outsider looking in?

Being honest

Well the claim was that MCAS was needed to keep the MAX in level flight, that alone was proof along with the hundreds of other flight performed with MCAS inactive because the autopilot was on or they were in manual flight with the flaps deployed on take off and landing.
So being honest, the claim of MCAS being needed for level flight should be debunked, now we can move on to more substantive issues.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:52 pm

planecane wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The dispatch reliability is not an argument imho, as the 2 sensors are flight critical anyway, as they supply the flight computers for captain and co-pilot.

The reasoning was flawed but the anonymous insider told a reporter that it was the reason. Perhaps the MCAS software team didn't know that both sensors needed to be functional for dispatch.

That is factually incorrect since AOA sensor is not on MEL. Both sensor must be working at all times.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:56 pm

I mentioned a while back that grounding in 2019 (assuming it ends in 2019) will affect airlines' ability to absorb new planes in 2020. Now RyanAir CEO confirms that.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ryan ... SKCN1U52ME
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:04 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
I mentioned a while back that grounding in 2019 (assuming it ends in 2019) will affect airlines' ability to absorb new planes in 2020. Now RyanAir CEO confirms that.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ryan ... SKCN1U52ME
MOL has thus told Boeing to fork some cash over, compensation for the missing planes, lower prices than IAG. This will become expensive for Boeing! And he also clearly states FR cannot take more than 6-8 new planes per month due to internal processes.

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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:34 pm

Boeing has cut production from 50+ to 40 or so, so even when the a/c is fit to fly, it will take time to get all the already produced and parked frames updated for delivery to clients, I don't think Boeing will get back to 50+ in 2020, not unless they go on a hiring binge, at present the backlog in resources is at Boeing where frames are piling up, vendors are pushing out at a smaller reduced rate.
The airlines growth or efficiency projections based on the MAX frames definitely will continue to take a hit, how long is a big question, until the a/c is released it is hard to make decently accurate projections.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:00 pm

par13del wrote:
Boeing has cut production from 50+ to 40 or so, so even when the a/c is fit to fly, it will take time to get all the already produced and parked frames updated for delivery to clients, I don't think Boeing will get back to 50+ in 2020, not unless they go on a hiring binge, at present the backlog in resources is at Boeing where frames are piling up, vendors are pushing out at a smaller reduced rate.
The airlines growth or efficiency projections based on the MAX frames definitely will continue to take a hit, how long is a big question, until the a/c is released it is hard to make decently accurate projections.

I think they told that they did not cut production rates for their suppliers. So if they run at -10 planes/month for 9 months, they will need to run at +10 plane/month for another 9 month to consume all of the supply chain excess.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:30 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
planecane wrote:
The investigative reports said that the single sensor was chosen for dispatch reliability.
Really ? Please give a link on that.
I don't see how a software change could have anything to do with the dispatch reliability of two AoA sensors that are already mounted anyway on the previous model.

Feel free to go find it in the Q2 thread. It was WSJ or Bloomberg.

It quotes a source that said when they had to remove the g-force sensor they wanted to keep it simple and only use one AoA sensor because using two would lead to more failures.

Clearly the left hand didn't know what the right hand was doing so the people making that decision didn't know that the aircraft couldn't be dispatched with either AoA sensor not functioning.
 
majano
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:46 pm

Firstly, I am not sure if this is the best thread to ask this question, but I think it is better than opening a separate thread. AA has a fleet of 24 737 MAX whilst Norwegian has a fleet of 18. AA says the MAX grounding cost it USD185 million in Q2 alone. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/america ... arter.html Norwegian on the other hand claims it suffered only USD83 million. On face value, this difference is substantial given the number of aircraft of each operator. Are the damages calculated on margins rather than revenue? With AA's gross and operating margins being better than Norwegian's, the differences may appear reasonable.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:26 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
planecane wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The dispatch reliability is not an argument imho, as the 2 sensors are flight critical anyway, as they supply the flight computers for captain and co-pilot.

The reasoning was flawed but the anonymous insider told a reporter that it was the reason. Perhaps the MCAS software team didn't know that both sensors needed to be functional for dispatch.

That is factually incorrect since AOA sensor is not on MEL. Both sensor must be working at all times.

Do you even read my post before responding? How is it factually incorrect. With what was going on internally during the design, don't you think it is very possible that the same team that didn't properly analyze the MCAS failure scenario also didn't bother to ask if the sensors were on the MEL. The fact is that a source told the reporter that dispatch reliability was the reason.
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:27 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
asdf wrote:
that alone is a big red hering that the whole case of the very unusual engine position is not that simple and that harmless


Did you mean red flag?


yes, sir ...

this proofs that it is a seriouse problem
why should testpilots insist on that much increasing MCAS interventions if the behavior of the MAX its not really a problem in normal circumstances
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:36 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
The five requirements the European Aviation Safety Agency have listed so far are as follows:

Reduce the difficulty manually turning the trim wheel
Address the unreliability of Angle of Attack sensors
Address the training situation
Investigate software issues with a lagging microprocessor


https://samchui.com/2019/07/10/easa-ide ... lot-fault/

This will take how long again to fix? Flying end of September, huh?

The Bloomberg article that this article is rehashing does not use the same semantics with respect to the trim wheel. From the actual article (not the author paraphrasing it for clicks and ad revenue):

EASA’s checklist includes a number of issues that have been disclosed: the potential difficulty pilots have in turning the jet’s manual trim wheel


This does not say anything about reducing the difficulty with hardware changes. It could simply be proving that it can be turned if MCAS 2.0 inputs the new maximum authority out of trim. It could also be training for aerodynamic load alleviation (known as the "roller coaster procedure" in the 737-200 training manual).

Contrary to popular belief, at least the NG training manual says that in extreme situations it may be necessary to alleviate the load to turn the wheel. It just uses different, more technical wording than the -200 manual.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:45 pm

asdf wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
asdf wrote:
that alone is a big red hering that the whole case of the very unusual engine position is not that simple and that harmless


Did you mean red flag?


yes, sir ...

this proofs that it is a seriouse problem
why should testpilots insist on that much increasing MCAS interventions if the behavior of the MAX its not really a problem in normal circumstances


The test pilots didn't "insist" on anything. They discovered that a similar issue that was originally thought to only occur at high speed was also present at low speed. That doesn't mean normal situations.

The reason for the increased authority is simple. At low speed the control surface needs to move more to achieve the same result. Just look out the window on your next flight. Shortly after takeoff or before landing the ailerons deflect a lot (and are augmented at least on the 737 by spoilers) to bank. At cruise speed they barely deflect at all.

It's the exact same concept with MCAS. They didn't "increase the power" because the stability issue was worse. They increased the authority because it needed to provide the same stick force increase at low speed that it did at high speed.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:53 pm

To repeat: Not all issues have to be fixed immediately. MCAS obviously first and now. We don't know about the others.
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DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:21 pm

majano wrote:
Firstly, I am not sure if this is the best thread to ask this question, but I think it is better than opening a separate thread. AA has a fleet of 24 737 MAX whilst Norwegian has a fleet of 18. AA says the MAX grounding cost it USD185 million in Q2 alone. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/america ... arter.html Norwegian on the other hand claims it suffered only USD83 million. On face value, this difference is substantial given the number of aircraft of each operator. Are the damages calculated on margins rather than revenue? With AA's gross and operating margins being better than Norwegian's, the differences may appear reasonable.

If they can rent an airplane for 1/2 M a month, that is 24 airplanes x 3 months x 1/2 = 36 M per quarter, which is quite a bit less than 185 M per quarter.
But maybe there are no airplanes to rent.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:10 pm

DenverTed wrote:
majano wrote:
Firstly, I am not sure if this is the best thread to ask this question, but I think it is better than opening a separate thread. AA has a fleet of 24 737 MAX whilst Norwegian has a fleet of 18. AA says the MAX grounding cost it USD185 million in Q2 alone. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/america ... arter.html Norwegian on the other hand claims it suffered only USD83 million. On face value, this difference is substantial given the number of aircraft of each operator. Are the damages calculated on margins rather than revenue? With AA's gross and operating margins being better than Norwegian's, the differences may appear reasonable.

If they can rent an airplane for 1/2 M a month, that is 24 airplanes x 3 months x 1/2 = 36 M per quarter, which is quite a bit less than 185 M per quarter.
But maybe there are no airplanes to rent.


Its actually not only the rent you can claim. Say you have to rent a 737-800 to replace the Max-8. Its the rent + the cost for the capital to rent it + the cost for the additional manpower to organize everything + the cost for parking the Max + the cost for the additional fuel burn of the -800 + the additional cost for compensation eventually stranded passengers + additoonal insurance costs because your fleet is actually now bigger and the Max aircraft need ground insirance and so on. There is actually a huge tally of costs airlines are facing especially in the background.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:54 pm

The BILLION dollar question - When will the 737MAX be flying again?

So.. do we know the extent of the issues that need fixing? Errr well kinda

Do we know what the fix is? Software or Software and Hardware? More training? A new bigger trim wheel, new flight computer .. errr… we are working on it

So when will my shiny new 737MAX be back earning me money? September! Umm October. .January.. soon..

The cost of the eventual fix and the compensation payments must have wiped out any profit Boeing could hope to make on these birds.

Boeing must be bleeding dollars at an incredible rate right now.

If I was a Boeing customer I would not be making stage payments on a bird that cant fly.. plus it would be costing me money in pilots wages, parking fees, maintenance, chartering in replacement planes.. and on and on.

A tipping point must be coming up where if a fix is not agreed worldwide, and soon, they will have to halt production at Renton.

I really hope someone at Boeing is working on a Plan B.
 
14ccKemiskt
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:25 pm

flyingphil wrote:
A tipping point must be coming up where if a fix is not agreed worldwide, and soon, they will have to halt production at Renton.

I really hope someone at Boeing is working on a Plan B.


Rest assured that Plan B is identical to Plan A – Get that MAX back in the air, whatever it takes! Included in "whatever" is money, time and PR. Boeing will have this as its only goal before desciding to do anything else.

The 737 MAX isn't that bad of a plane, it's just that people don't trust it right now. Also, right now people does not really trust Boeing. Or the FAA. Or Boeing's relation to the FAA. The Plan has a good chance of succeeding but it will be expensive, time consuming and embarrassing. It kind of HAS to be all that, in order for people to really feel that every stone has been turned, that the authorities are back in charge and that Boeing has been fully "reprimanded" for their misuse of FAA trust and poor engineering choices.
 
hivue
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:08 pm

flyingphil wrote:
The cost of the eventual fix and the compensation payments must have wiped out any profit Boeing could hope to make on these birds.


I'm going to go waaaaaaaaay out on a limb ( :D ) and predict that the MAX eventually will end up just as much a cash cow for Boeing as its ancestors have been.

Boeing must be bleeding dollars at an incredible rate right now.


Correct. It's good that they have way more dollars than they could ever possibly bleed out.

...plus it would be costing me money in pilots wages...


If you were a Boeing customer and paying your pilots not to fly, you'd have more problems than Boeing has right now.
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DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:11 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
majano wrote:
Firstly, I am not sure if this is the best thread to ask this question, but I think it is better than opening a separate thread. AA has a fleet of 24 737 MAX whilst Norwegian has a fleet of 18. AA says the MAX grounding cost it USD185 million in Q2 alone. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/america ... arter.html Norwegian on the other hand claims it suffered only USD83 million. On face value, this difference is substantial given the number of aircraft of each operator. Are the damages calculated on margins rather than revenue? With AA's gross and operating margins being better than Norwegian's, the differences may appear reasonable.

If they can rent an airplane for 1/2 M a month, that is 24 airplanes x 3 months x 1/2 = 36 M per quarter, which is quite a bit less than 185 M per quarter.
But maybe there are no airplanes to rent.


Its actually not only the rent you can claim. Say you have to rent a 737-800 to replace the Max-8. Its the rent + the cost for the capital to rent it + the cost for the additional manpower to organize everything + the cost for parking the Max + the cost for the additional fuel burn of the -800 + the additional cost for compensation eventually stranded passengers + additoonal insurance costs because your fleet is actually now bigger and the Max aircraft need ground insirance and so on. There is actually a huge tally of costs airlines are facing especially in the background.

Does Boeing get any credit for saved hours and cycles which would otherwise be on the aircraft over the quarter?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:18 pm

14ccKemiskt wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
A tipping point must be coming up where if a fix is not agreed worldwide, and soon, they will have to halt production at Renton.

I really hope someone at Boeing is working on a Plan B.


Rest assured that Plan B is identical to Plan A – Get that MAX back in the air, whatever it takes! Included in "whatever" is money, time and PR. Boeing will have this as its only goal before desciding to do anything else.

The 737 MAX isn't that bad of a plane, it's just that people don't trust it right now. Also, right now people does not really trust Boeing. Or the FAA. Or Boeing's relation to the FAA. The Plan has a good chance of succeeding but it will be expensive, time consuming and embarrassing. It kind of HAS to be all that, in order for people to really feel that every stone has been turned, that the authorities are back in charge and that Boeing has been fully "reprimanded" for their misuse of FAA trust and poor engineering choices.


Why aren't airlines held to this level of contempt when their maintenance practices or pilots are responsible for a deadly crash?
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:45 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ryan ... SKCN1U52ME

So Ryanair are getting restless..
So their Plan B is to order 100 Airbus for its Laudamotion subsidary.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:30 am

DenverTed wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
If they can rent an airplane for 1/2 M a month, that is 24 airplanes x 3 months x 1/2 = 36 M per quarter, which is quite a bit less than 185 M per quarter.
But maybe there are no airplanes to rent.


Its actually not only the rent you can claim. Say you have to rent a 737-800 to replace the Max-8. Its the rent + the cost for the capital to rent it + the cost for the additional manpower to organize everything + the cost for parking the Max + the cost for the additional fuel burn of the -800 + the additional cost for compensation eventually stranded passengers + additoonal insurance costs because your fleet is actually now bigger and the Max aircraft need ground insirance and so on. There is actually a huge tally of costs airlines are facing especially in the background.

Does Boeing get any credit for saved hours and cycles which would otherwise be on the aircraft over the quarter?


Good point! You should work at Boeing PR! :-)

That and the fuel savings are big positives.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:31 am

Reuters has a few spicy leads:
I find the first article to be the most interesting. I wonder if this is the last "retirement" we will be seeing. It's interesting that the NMA guy now owns fixing MAX, and a.net punching bag Mike Sinnett now owns NMA while retaining the role of MAX punching bag.
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MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:55 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Why aren't airlines held to this level of contempt when their maintenance practices or pilots are responsible for a deadly crash?


Sadly not a publicly or politically engaging contempt. It's not interesting.

This has never been about true safety.
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:09 am

flyingphil wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ryanair-hldgs-boeing-737/ryanair-sees-risk-to-2020-growth-if-737-max-grounded-beyond-november-idUSKCN1U52ME

So Ryanair are getting restless..
So their Plan B is to order 100 Airbus for its Laudamotion subsidary.


That was always Plan A for Laudamotion and has not been a secret.
 
Planetalk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:33 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
14ccKemiskt wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
A tipping point must be coming up where if a fix is not agreed worldwide, and soon, they will have to halt production at Renton.

I really hope someone at Boeing is working on a Plan B.


Rest assured that Plan B is identical to Plan A – Get that MAX back in the air, whatever it takes! Included in "whatever" is money, time and PR. Boeing will have this as its only goal before desciding to do anything else.

The 737 MAX isn't that bad of a plane, it's just that people don't trust it right now. Also, right now people does not really trust Boeing. Or the FAA. Or Boeing's relation to the FAA. The Plan has a good chance of succeeding but it will be expensive, time consuming and embarrassing. It kind of HAS to be all that, in order for people to really feel that every stone has been turned, that the authorities are back in charge and that Boeing has been fully "reprimanded" for their misuse of FAA trust and poor engineering choices.


Why aren't airlines held to this level of contempt when their maintenance practices or pilots are responsible for a deadly crash?


Well its kind of hard to prove that every pilot in an airline behaves the same way, but I would hope every 737 Max does.

In any case airlines have suffered severe reputational damage and penalties in the past. See Korean Air. And plenty of people avoid Air France, though I don't think that's at all justified anymore.

Not sure your point though, Boeing should just be left alone and an unsafe plane allowed to fly, because otherwise its not fair?
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:36 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-48953892

The negative stories about Boeing keep building.

"Families cheated of Boeing crash compensation"

74k per family - I've no doubt with the level of focus on this crash Boeing wont get away with this. Maybe they would in the past. But not this time.
 
marcelh
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:18 am

For those who are blaming the airlines, maintenance department and pilots for crashing the MAX, I have one question:
Why are those people perfectly able not to kill hundreds of people within a few months with the 737NG?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:21 am

Seriously just discuss the topic without trying to provoke others users or engaging in personal attacks. If you can not engage with other users in a respectful manner, remove yourself from the discussion. This will be the last warning posted by moderators in this thread, the next time the thread will be locked for good.
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journeyperson
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:22 am

Morning ritual: Scroll through 737 Max thread looking for links to actual developments...
 
Absynth
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:27 am

I'm not quite sure why some of the Boeing 'defenders' (whitewashing is a forbidden word so it seems) object to the notion of ill-intent.

If this truely is a case of a complete failure of SE processes, gross incompetence in engineering and design and failure to verify and (in this case most importantly) validate the system that would be the worst possible outcome for Boeing.

It changes the root cause from an easily replacable management set on specific targets like economics and planning over safety, to the complete organisation itself. That would, for me personally, change my position from 'MAX on probation' to 'if it's Boeing I ain't going'.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:03 am

marcelh wrote:
For those who are blaming the airlines, maintenance department and pilots for crashing the MAX, I have one question:
Why are those people perfectly able not to kill hundreds of people within a few months with the 737NG?


Good question. But..

ET lost a 737NG back in 2010 off Beirut, to which the probable cause was described by Lebanese authorities to be "the flight crew's mismanagement of the aircraft's speed, altitude, headings and attitude through inconsistent flight control inputs resulting in a loss of control and their failure to abide by CRM". The airline obviously refutes the conclusion.

As for JT, they did write off a 737NG within two months of delivery back in 2013, luckily without any fatalities. Not to mention several other incidents throughout the years right up until JT610,

Granted the NG accidents weren't consecutively. But that's just the luck of the draw to be honest.
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B777LRF
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:19 am

You only need to ask one simple question: Would those two aircraft have crashed if they were NGs. The answer is obviously a resounding NO, which leads us right back to the point of Max airworthiness. It stands to reason the Max with MCAS V1.0 should never have been certified to operate commercial services, question is whether its many, and seemingly increasing on a weekly basis, flaws can be fixed in a reasonable timeframe and to the satisfaction of aviation regulators around the world.

There are people here fighting Boeing's corner, and will do so regardless of the evidence stacked against them. Nothing is going to change that; they're blinded by loyalty and/or on the payroll of a PR firm hired by Boeing.
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uta999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:20 am

Some of this thread should be moved to the equivalent Technical/Operations, particularly when discussing the operating system and chips used. I thought that is what it was for.
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max999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:28 am

Revelation wrote:
Reuters has a few spicy leads:
I find the first article to be the most interesting. I wonder if this is the last "retirement" we will be seeing. It's interesting that the NMA guy now owns fixing MAX, and a.net punching bag Mike Sinnett now owns NMA while retaining the role of MAX punching bag.


A 'retirement' means he leaves with his golden parachute intact without being held accountable. Senior executives in the US corporate culture can only fail upward.

While workers who screw up at work get shoved out the door with nothing at all.
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:34 am

Revelation wrote:
Reuters has a few spicy leads:
I find the first article to be the most interesting. I wonder if this is the last "retirement" we will be seeing. It's interesting that the NMA guy now owns fixing MAX, and a.net punching bag Mike Sinnett now owns NMA while retaining the role of MAX punching bag.


A couple of interesting quotes from the first article:

'Boeing Co. said 737 program chief Eric Lindblad is retiring after about a year in the post'

'Lindblad, 57, “shared with me his desire to retire last year, and we will now begin to embark on a thoughtful and seamless transition plan,” '

So apparently he was planning on early retirement within a few months either side of his appointment as head on the MAX program.
 
majano
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:46 am

DenverTed wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
If they can rent an airplane for 1/2 M a month, that is 24 airplanes x 3 months x 1/2 = 36 M per quarter, which is quite a bit less than 185 M per quarter.
But maybe there are no airplanes to rent.


Its actually not only the rent you can claim. Say you have to rent a 737-800 to replace the Max-8. Its the rent + the cost for the capital to rent it + the cost for the additional manpower to organize everything + the cost for parking the Max + the cost for the additional fuel burn of the -800 + the additional cost for compensation eventually stranded passengers + additoonal insurance costs because your fleet is actually now bigger and the Max aircraft need ground insirance and so on. There is actually a huge tally of costs airlines are facing especially in the background.

Does Boeing get any credit for saved hours and cycles which would otherwise be on the aircraft over the quarter?

Thank you for all these responses. If it is based on cost incurred, then I would agree that any cost "saved" due to the grounding has to be seen as a credit.
 
bgm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:50 am

B777LRF wrote:
You only need to ask one simple question: Would those two aircraft have crashed if they were NGs. The answer is obviously a resounding NO, which leads us right back to the point of Max airworthiness. It stands to reason the Max with MCAS V1.0 should never have been certified to operate commercial services, question is whether its many, and seemingly increasing on a weekly basis, flaws can be fixed in a reasonable timeframe and to the satisfaction of aviation regulators around the world.

There are people here fighting Boeing's corner, and will do so regardless of the evidence stacked against them. Nothing is going to change that; they're blinded by loyalty and/or on the payroll of a PR firm hired by Boeing.


Thank you. Couldn’t have put it better myself.
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:34 am

majano wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

Its actually not only the rent you can claim. Say you have to rent a 737-800 to replace the Max-8. Its the rent + the cost for the capital to rent it + the cost for the additional manpower to organize everything + the cost for parking the Max + the cost for the additional fuel burn of the -800 + the additional cost for compensation eventually stranded passengers + additoonal insurance costs because your fleet is actually now bigger and the Max aircraft need ground insirance and so on. There is actually a huge tally of costs airlines are facing especially in the background.

Does Boeing get any credit for saved hours and cycles which would otherwise be on the aircraft over the quarter?

Thank you for all these responses. If it is based on cost incurred, then I would agree that any cost "saved" due to the grounding has to be seen as a credit.



???

I'm probably missing the sarcastics behind this.

Customers fork out north of 50 million dollars to purchase a machine with the intent to generate income.
Now they are making ZERO income out of this machine, but still face all the capital costs, monthly lease payments, storing costs, etc.
Not sure where there is credit to be found in that . . .

Or are you your suggesting that Boeing assumes all of the customer's financing and operating costs, and then somehow gets reimbursed for not having the operating costs?
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Francoflier
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:48 am

majano wrote:
Thank you for all these responses. If it is based on cost incurred, then I would agree that any cost "saved" due to the grounding has to be seen as a credit.


Boeing is saving the airlines' money by preventing them from spending it on new aircraft!
:rotfl:

(Sorry, couldn't resist)
Last edited by Francoflier on Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
maint123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:50 am

Wasn't the lion air report due this month ?
Any updates from ppl in the know ?
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:06 am

Virtual737 wrote:
'Boeing Co. said 737 program chief Eric Lindblad is retiring after about a year in the post'

'Lindblad, 57, “shared with me his desire to retire last year, and we will now begin to embark on a thoughtful and seamless transition plan,” '

So apparently he was planning on early retirement within a few months either side of his appointment as head on the MAX program.

Haha, good catch! :thumbsup: Funny he had to lie about that.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:46 am

DenverTed wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
If they can rent an airplane for 1/2 M a month, that is 24 airplanes x 3 months x 1/2 = 36 M per quarter, which is quite a bit less than 185 M per quarter.
But maybe there are no airplanes to rent.


Its actually not only the rent you can claim. Say you have to rent a 737-800 to replace the Max-8. Its the rent + the cost for the capital to rent it + the cost for the additional manpower to organize everything + the cost for parking the Max + the cost for the additional fuel burn of the -800 + the additional cost for compensation eventually stranded passengers + additoonal insurance costs because your fleet is actually now bigger and the Max aircraft need ground insirance and so on. There is actually a huge tally of costs airlines are facing especially in the background.

Does Boeing get any credit for saved hours and cycles which would otherwise be on the aircraft over the quarter?


It will most probably be the other way around and there might be claims towards Boeing because of this. If you buy the aircraft you calculate the depreciation. During the grounding (and in this case I assume it will be lifted at one point, otherwise the value of the aircraft falls to zero) the depreciation is lower when the aircraft is grounded as there are no cycles accumulated. Therefore the airlines have more values on the balance sheet and if this results in more taxes owed Boeing might be asked to cover this additional costs (only applies for airlines in countries with capital taxation)

On the other side if you leased your aircraft for a fixed time (say 5 years) with fixed amount of cycles and you give it back with 2000 less cycles the leasing company might have to compensate the airline, depending on the contract (like with company cars that you return with less mileage than expected) and therefore the leasing company can claim this from Boeing if the additional value of the aircraft will result in higher costs.

This whole topic is really complicated and normally the airlines and Boeing will sit together and just settle for a number both are equally unhappy with.

EDIT: To explain the difference of Norwegian and AA: Depends how the airlines calculate this values and especially how the contracts were.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:54 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
A couple of interesting quotes from the first article:

'Boeing Co. said 737 program chief Eric Lindblad is retiring after about a year in the post'

'Lindblad, 57, “shared with me his desire to retire last year, and we will now begin to embark on a thoughtful and seamless transition plan,” '

So apparently he was planning on early retirement within a few months either side of his appointment as head on the MAX program.

Of course that is pretty dubious.

You don't hand over leadership of the program delivering the most profit to the corporation to a guy wanting to leave in a year.

My guess is that Jenks is viewed as a better problem solver than Lindblad, so a graceful way had to be found to get Lindblad out of the way.

It will be interesting if this change in management will bring on changes in direction.

Often times it does.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:54 pm

I have heard of executives who have spent year or so in hell rescuing failed products. Then offered big promotion to rescue another one. Some would say two years in hell is enough.
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piedmontf284000
Posts: 406
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:20 pm

United extending its groundings of the max thru November 3rd. By that point, aside from the weeks of Christmas, it shouldn't really have much of an impact on their fleet schedules.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/07/12/uni ... ember.html
 
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7BOEING7
Posts: 3017
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:21 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
'Boeing Co. said 737 program chief Eric Lindblad is retiring after about a year in the post'

'Lindblad, 57, “shared with me his desire to retire last year, and we will now begin to embark on a thoughtful and seamless transition plan,” '

So apparently he was planning on early retirement within a few months either side of his appointment as head on the MAX program.

Haha, good catch! :thumbsup: Funny he had to lie about that.


I wouldn’t read too much into this. EL was about to retire (>55 and a good retirement package) when he was asked to return to Renton from Everett (777X to 737) to straighten out the issues on the 737 line. He had nothing to do with the 737 issues and what he came to Renton for was accomplished. Anybody with any intelligence would say “time to retire”.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:36 pm

The more interesting thing would be if this satisfies those who are looking for scalps at the management level.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:58 pm

CitiGroup: "Boeing's 737 MAX needs to return to service by Q4 or else airlines could make plans without the jet for summer 2020."

https://www.investors.com/news/boeing-7 ... n-warning/

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