Planetalk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:47 pm

prebennorholm wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
I find it rather strange that BOEING has only publicly stated they have set aside 1 billion for this fiasco... it will be in the several billions

It can wait. For the time being Boeing will fix the plane and have it certified so they can deliver planes again. $1B is plenty of money for that.

At some time, likely next year, the accident reports will be published. Very likely they will be at least partially disputed by some stake holders. That will keep time running.

At some uncertain time far out in the future there will then be a lot of work in different courtrooms around the world. They will work for years before they come up with rulings which will be appealed to a higher level to begin from scratch.

Etc. etc.

At this stage it is pure guesswork what money Boeing in the end will have to fork out. The only relatively certain things are that they will not pay one cent more than needed, and if it becomes a substantial money pile, then it will likely be in the time frame 5 to 10 years out in the future.

New subject: There are also companies which are earning millions on the MAX grounding. Airlines with no MAX planes enjoy decreased competition from airlines with MAX planes, higher load factors and booming revenue management systems. In a totally fair world they should hand out part of their extra profit to Boeing, but that's not gonna happen.

Also airlines with MAX fleet enjoy higher load factors and higher average ticket prices than what would have been the case if 500 MAX planes world wide were flying instead of parked. They will conveniently forget to subtract that when they finally present their grounding bill to Boeing.


Did you actually just say that in a fair world Airlines with nothing to do with the MAX should be paying Boeing for having designed a plane that killed over 350 people directly due to its design?

If coke changes its manufacturing processes and as a result starts poisoning people, should Pepsi pay coke when it is withdrawn from the market? Bizarre logic.
 
blrsea
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
WSJ ( https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1150405248822980610 ) tweets:

Boeing 737 MAX grounding could stretch into 2020 as company executives, FAA engineers and regulators expand safety analyses

Sounds ominous.

Article ( https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-737 ... 1563112801 ) is behind a paywall.

Anyone got a link that isn't behind a paywall?


Search for title from google.com and click the wsj link, you can read full article.

Excerpts from the article...

During early stages of work on the fix, Boeing and FAA officials disagreed behind the scenes about the extent of changes needed to reduce hazards posed by the MCAS system, according to people familiar with the details. Then in March, just as Boeing was slated to submit a long-awaited proposal with the goal of jump-starting the process, new questions arose about related software systems and emergency checklists, requiring weeks of additional intense evaluation.

The topics included concerns about whether the average pilot has enough physical strength to manually crank a flight-control wheel in extreme emergencies.

In late June, Boeing and the FAA disclosed still another flight-control problem on the MAX, involving failure of a microprocessor that meant test pilots couldn’t counteract a potential misfire of MCAS as quickly as required.

...
From a purely technical standpoint, some senior FAA officials believe they could be in a position to approve Boeing’s proposed fix at some point in October, though working with international regulators on a coordinated return to service could cause a delay, according to one person briefed on the matter. Another wild card, this person added, relates to the potential impact of new FAA leadership if the U.S. Senate confirms Stephen Dickson in the fall as the next agency administrator.
 
SEU
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 4:23 pm

blrsea wrote:
Revelation wrote:
WSJ ( https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1150405248822980610 ) tweets:

Boeing 737 MAX grounding could stretch into 2020 as company executives, FAA engineers and regulators expand safety analyses

Sounds ominous.

Article ( https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-737 ... 1563112801 ) is behind a paywall.

Anyone got a link that isn't behind a paywall?


Search for title from google.com and click the wsj link, you can read full article.

Excerpts from the article...

During early stages of work on the fix, Boeing and FAA officials disagreed behind the scenes about the extent of changes needed to reduce hazards posed by the MCAS system, according to people familiar with the details. Then in March, just as Boeing was slated to submit a long-awaited proposal with the goal of jump-starting the process, new questions arose about related software systems and emergency checklists, requiring weeks of additional intense evaluation.

The topics included concerns about whether the average pilot has enough physical strength to manually crank a flight-control wheel in extreme emergencies.

In late June, Boeing and the FAA disclosed still another flight-control problem on the MAX, involving failure of a microprocessor that meant test pilots couldn’t counteract a potential misfire of MCAS as quickly as required.

...
From a purely technical standpoint, some senior FAA officials believe they could be in a position to approve Boeing’s proposed fix at some point in October, though working with international regulators on a coordinated return to service could cause a delay, according to one person briefed on the matter. Another wild card, this person added, relates to the potential impact of new FAA leadership if the U.S. Senate confirms Stephen Dickson in the fall as the next agency administrator.


Doesnt work for me?
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 4:29 pm

Assuming the article is accurate (which is sometimes a stretch when it comes to aviation specifics), the most interesting part to me is:

Since the 737 MAX and its earlier version, called the 737 NG, share the same flight-control computer, fixes related to the microprocessor also apply to NG models, thousands of which remain in service around the world.


This seems to indicate that the MCAS 2.0 software is not what introduced the microprocessor issue. It also indicates that the slowed response time is not an issue on the NG with the extremely low number (which may be 0) of runaway stabilizer incidents.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:34 pm

https://www.marketscreener.com/BOEING-C ... -28902581/

Hmmm... hinting that the manual trim wheel may need to be modified.. but thats just my guess. You cant really expect the FAA to give a minute by minute summary I suppose. The trim wheel was shrunk for the NG cockpit.. so that opens another can of worms.
 
LDRA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:47 pm

How is Boeing going to fix manual trim wheel? Mandate pilot training and physical strength test?
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:47 pm

flyingphil wrote:
https://www.marketscreener.com/BOEING-COMPANY-THE-4816/news/Boeing-737-MAX-Grounding-Could-Stretch-Into-2020-28902581/

Hmmm... hinting that the manual trim wheel may need to be modified.. but thats just my guess. You cant really expect the FAA to give a minute by minute summary I suppose. The trim wheel was shrunk for the NG cockpit.. so that opens another can of worms.

I think more likely it means getting the simulators to accurately simulate the required force and enhance training for load alleviation (aka "roller coaster procedure") when in extreme situations.

I don't think the changes to the wheel on the NG caused the issue as it was already present in the -100. The larger stabilizer exacerbated the issue. If they change the gearing to make it easier to move the stabilizer under extreme conditions, it will need a ridiculous number of turns to move it which will make normal situations more difficult.

LDRA wrote:
How is Boeing going to fix manual trim wheel? Mandate pilot training and physical strength test?


See above.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:46 pm

LDRA wrote:
How is Boeing going to fix manual trim wheel? Mandate pilot training and physical strength test?

One solution could be to use a separate second electric motor powered from a backup power source (as the A350 do). On the cockpit this only require to find a place for the backup trim switch.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:14 pm

Revelation wrote:
WSJ ( https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1150405248822980610 ) tweets:

Boeing 737 MAX grounding could stretch into 2020 as company executives, FAA engineers and regulators expand safety analyses

Sounds ominous.

Article ( https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-737 ... 1563112801 ) is behind a paywall.

Anyone got a link that isn't behind a paywall?

Looking at that photo in the tweet, I don't see a wifi bump on the Air Canada, GOL, and Sun Country that United and American have. Do they not have wifi?
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:24 pm

I estimate the cost of the grounding at 1/2B per month, so if it lasts a year that is 6B, plus the cost of the fix, and the payments to the victims, so the cost is now headed past 5B into the 5B to 10B range. Will they have to make physical changes to the trim wheel? If so, I don't see how the NG would escape this, which is a big can of worms in terms of logistics and cost.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:31 pm

planecane wrote:
Assuming the article is accurate (which is sometimes a stretch when it comes to aviation specifics), the most interesting part to me is:

Since the 737 MAX and its earlier version, called the 737 NG, share the same flight-control computer, fixes related to the microprocessor also apply to NG models, thousands of which remain in service around the world.

This seems to indicate that the MCAS 2.0 software is not what introduced the microprocessor issue. It also indicates that the slowed response time is not an issue on the NG with the extremely low number (which may be 0) of runaway stabilizer incidents.

I think the article indeed isn't very specific, and is lumping together a bunch of suggestions that could have been picked up just surfing the web with the latest UA/AA postponements to weave together a pretty speculative piece.

My $0.02 click bait prediction: If the delays wipe out the Thanksgiving/Xmas/New Years travel cycles, heads will roll at Boeing, starting from the CEO on down. The losses from the summer peak are bad enough, if it wipes out the winter peak too the airlines are going to scream, and the shareholders are going to demand scapegoats.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
LDRA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:52 pm

planecane wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
https://www.marketscreener.com/BOEING-COMPANY-THE-4816/news/Boeing-737-MAX-Grounding-Could-Stretch-Into-2020-28902581/

Hmmm... hinting that the manual trim wheel may need to be modified.. but thats just my guess. You cant really expect the FAA to give a minute by minute summary I suppose. The trim wheel was shrunk for the NG cockpit.. so that opens another can of worms.

I think more likely it means getting the simulators to accurately simulate the required force and enhance training for load alleviation (aka "roller coaster procedure") when in extreme situations.

I don't think the changes to the wheel on the NG caused the issue as it was already present in the -100. The larger stabilizer exacerbated the issue. If they change the gearing to make it easier to move the stabilizer under extreme conditions, it will need a ridiculous number of turns to move it which will make normal situations more difficult.

LDRA wrote:
How is Boeing going to fix manual trim wheel? Mandate pilot training and physical strength test?


See above.


It might have been perfectly fine back in the 60s 70s and whatnot. But it is not OK in modern times. The demographics of aviators has changed. Significant portion of 737 type holders are female
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:51 pm

LDRA wrote:
planecane wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
https://www.marketscreener.com/BOEING-COMPANY-THE-4816/news/Boeing-737-MAX-Grounding-Could-Stretch-Into-2020-28902581/

Hmmm... hinting that the manual trim wheel may need to be modified.. but thats just my guess. You cant really expect the FAA to give a minute by minute summary I suppose. The trim wheel was shrunk for the NG cockpit.. so that opens another can of worms.

I think more likely it means getting the simulators to accurately simulate the required force and enhance training for load alleviation (aka "roller coaster procedure") when in extreme situations.

I don't think the changes to the wheel on the NG caused the issue as it was already present in the -100. The larger stabilizer exacerbated the issue. If they change the gearing to make it easier to move the stabilizer under extreme conditions, it will need a ridiculous number of turns to move it which will make normal situations more difficult.

LDRA wrote:
How is Boeing going to fix manual trim wheel? Mandate pilot training and physical strength test?


See above.


It might have been perfectly fine back in the 60s 70s and whatnot. But it is not OK in modern times. The demographics of aviators has changed. Significant portion of 737 type holders are female


However, if it isn't difficult to turn in normal situations (e.g. the electric motor stopped working) then it doesn't matter if there are female pilots. It's not like all male pilots are bodybuilders either. The males can't turn it in a severe out of trim situation either.
 
VS11
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:53 pm

Bloomberg reports that AA and UA will extend non-MAX schedules until Nov 2/3.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:03 pm

planecane wrote:
LDRA wrote:
planecane wrote:
I think more likely it means getting the simulators to accurately simulate the required force and enhance training for load alleviation (aka "roller coaster procedure") when in extreme situations.

I don't think the changes to the wheel on the NG caused the issue as it was already present in the -100. The larger stabilizer exacerbated the issue. If they change the gearing to make it easier to move the stabilizer under extreme conditions, it will need a ridiculous number of turns to move it which will make normal situations more difficult.



See above.


It might have been perfectly fine back in the 60s 70s and whatnot. But it is not OK in modern times. The demographics of aviators has changed. Significant portion of 737 type holders are female


However, if it isn't difficult to turn in normal situations (e.g. the electric motor stopped working) then it doesn't matter if there are female pilots. It's not like all male pilots are bodybuilders either. The males can't turn it in a severe out of trim situation either.
The whole plane is designed to cope with abnormal situations. Why should the trim system be any different?
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:18 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
planecane wrote:
LDRA wrote:

It might have been perfectly fine back in the 60s 70s and whatnot. But it is not OK in modern times. The demographics of aviators has changed. Significant portion of 737 type holders are female


However, if it isn't difficult to turn in normal situations (e.g. the electric motor stopped working) then it doesn't matter if there are female pilots. It's not like all male pilots are bodybuilders either. The males can't turn it in a severe out of trim situation either.
The whole plane is designed to cope with abnormal situations. Why should the trim system be any different?


The abnormal situation recovery will be load alleviation. The only time this appears to be necessary is if there is a runaway stabilizer AND the electric trim won't work. In service data seems to indicate that this hasn't happened on the NG. It shouldn't happen any more often on the MAX with MCAS 2.0. It actually may not have happened with MCAS 1.0. We won't know for sure until the final reports if the electric trim was functional on the two crash flights.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:41 pm

Planetalk wrote:
Did you actually just say that in a fair world Airlines with nothing to do with the MAX should be paying Boeing for having designed a plane that killed over 350 people directly due to its design?

If coke changes its manufacturing processes and as a result starts poisoning people, should Pepsi pay coke when it is withdrawn from the market? Bizarre logic.

Yes, I agree, I used bizarre logic to explain how the MAX crisis has many different economic consequences, and not only negative consequences for airlines.

To your last question, maybe Pepsi should change the name of Pepsi Max into something else…?
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
LDRA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:55 pm

planecane wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
planecane wrote:

However, if it isn't difficult to turn in normal situations (e.g. the electric motor stopped working) then it doesn't matter if there are female pilots. It's not like all male pilots are bodybuilders either. The males can't turn it in a severe out of trim situation either.
The whole plane is designed to cope with abnormal situations. Why should the trim system be any different?


The abnormal situation recovery will be load alleviation. The only time this appears to be necessary is if there is a runaway stabilizer AND the electric trim won't work. In service data seems to indicate that this hasn't happened on the NG. It shouldn't happen any more often on the MAX with MCAS 2.0. It actually may not have happened with MCAS 1.0. We won't know for sure until the final reports if the electric trim was functional on the two crash flights.


At Vmo, Max electric trim is inhabited BY DESIGN. So it does not even take failure conditions to need to use manual trim wheel.
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:35 am

LDRA wrote:
At Vmo, Max electric trim is inhabited BY DESIGN. So it does not even take failure conditions to need to use manual trim wheel.


Did you mean inhibited? Where did this information come from? IIRC it isn’t on the NG. Please enlighten.
 
LDRA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:01 am

7BOEING7 wrote:
LDRA wrote:
At Vmo, Max electric trim is inhabited BY DESIGN. So it does not even take failure conditions to need to use manual trim wheel.


Did you mean inhibited? Where did this information come from? IIRC it isn’t on the NG. Please enlighten.


Sorry should say inhibited. It is Max only, for detail see below

https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... S%2010.pdf

STATEMENT OF ISSUE
The aisle stand trim switches can be used to trim the airplane throughout the flight envelope and fully complies with the reference regulation Simulation has demonstrated that the thumb switch trim does not have enough authority to completely trim the aircraft longitudinally in certain corners of the flight envelope, e.g. gear up/flaps up, aft center of gravity, near Vmo/Mmo corner, and gear down/flaps up, at speeds above 230 kts.In those cases, longitudinal trim is achieved by using the manual stabilizer trim wheel to position the stabilizer. The trim wheel can be used to trim the airplane throughout the entire flight envelope.In addition, the autopilot has the authority to trim the airplane in these conditions.The reference regulation and policy do not specify the method of trim, nor do they state that when multiple pilot trim control paths exist that they must each independently be able to trim the airplane throughout the flight envelope.Boeing did not initially consider this to be a compliance issue because trim could always be achieved, even during the conditions where use of the aisle stand trim switch was required.Subsequent to flight testing, the FAA-TAD expressed concern with compliance to the reference regulation based on an interpretation of the intent behind “trim”. The main issue being that longitudinal trim cannot be achieved throughout the flight envelope using thumb switch trim only.

EASA POSITION
Boeing set the thumb switch limits in order to increase the level of safety for out-of-trim dive characteristics(CS 25.255(a)(1)). The resulting thumb switch limits require an alternative trim method to meet CS 25.161trim requirements in certain corners of the operational envelope. The need to use the trim wheel is considered unusual, as it is only required for manual flight in those corners of the envelope.The increased safety provided by the Boeing design limits on the thumb switches (for out-of-trim dive characteristics) provides a compensating factor for the inability to use the thumb switches throughout the entire flight envelope. Furthermore, the additional crew procedures and training material will clearly explain to pilots the situations where use of the trim wheel may be needed due to lack of trim authority with the wheel mounted switches.The trim systems on the 737Max provide an appropriate level of safety relative to longitudinal trim capability.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:27 am

LDRA wrote:

EASA POSITION
[The trim systems on the 737Max provide an appropriate level of safety relative to longitudinal trim capability.

I don't fully understand all of what they are saying, but this last sentence seems clear enough. No problem with the trim system?
 
LDRA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:24 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
LDRA wrote:

EASA POSITION
[The trim systems on the 737Max provide an appropriate level of safety relative to longitudinal trim capability.

I don't fully understand all of what they are saying, but this last sentence seems clear enough. No problem with the trim system?

Provided the manual trim wheel always works at Vmo, which turns out to be not true
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:03 am

My solution becomes more probable: get Chicago out of the Boeing commercial unit, sell the later to Buffet. LOL
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
maint123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:23 am

snasteve wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
CitiGroup: "Boeing's 737 MAX needs to return to service by Q4 or else airlines could make plans without the jet for summer 2020."

https://www.investors.com/news/boeing-7 ... n-warning/


Not much of a lawsuit. Mind you that anybody is free to file suit for anything, winning is of course another matter. Since the passenger was not injured, predict this lawsuit will fail and the request for class action status will be denied.

Some frivolous lawsuits might be filed to discredit genuine ones.
 
maint123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:33 am

planecane wrote:
LDRA wrote:
Firing working level technical staff solves zero issue. They need to look at Boeing corporate management, the ones that are company officers

Unless it is shown that corporate management made the call on the MCAS design I disagree. It is most likely engineers and engineering managers that made the choices.

If management gave the directive for minimal differences but the engineers and engineering managers didn't alert them to compromises being made, it isn't the fault of the people that made the "ask" it is the fault of the people that didn't bring up concerns.

But sometimes decisions are made at a senior level and the engineer has no option but to comply. And when it all goes south, the senior management wash their hands off it and punish the engineer. Keeping it all in writing also doesn't help. They will just bury the issue and you will become a target. Not being dramatic, speaking from experience.
 
maint123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:40 am

Getting the max back in air is not the issue. Suppose usa twists arms and the max is back in the air. But if the issues are not all tackled or the plane has inherent issues with flyability in certain envelopes, we might unfortunately face the same situation after some time.
Cant fight physics.
Max has to achieve the same reliability that NG or the other planes have. Anything less will be exposed in the real world.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:48 am

LDRA wrote:
7BOEING7 wrote:
LDRA wrote:
At Vmo, Max electric trim is inhabited BY DESIGN. So it does not even take failure conditions to need to use manual trim wheel.


Did you mean inhibited? Where did this information come from? IIRC it isn’t on the NG. Please enlighten.


Sorry should say inhibited. It is Max only, for detail see below

https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... S%2010.pdf

STATEMENT OF ISSUE
The aisle stand trim switches can be used to trim the airplane throughout the flight envelope and fully complies with the reference regulation Simulation has demonstrated that the thumb switch trim does not have enough authority to completely trim the aircraft longitudinally in certain corners of the flight envelope, e.g. gear up/flaps up, aft center of gravity, near Vmo/Mmo corner, and gear down/flaps up, at speeds above 230 kts.In those cases, longitudinal trim is achieved by using the manual stabilizer trim wheel to position the stabilizer. The trim wheel can be used to trim the airplane throughout the entire flight envelope.In addition, the autopilot has the authority to trim the airplane in these conditions.The reference regulation and policy do not specify the method of trim, nor do they state that when multiple pilot trim control paths exist that they must each independently be able to trim the airplane throughout the flight envelope.Boeing did not initially consider this to be a compliance issue because trim could always be achieved, even during the conditions where use of the aisle stand trim switch was required.Subsequent to flight testing, the FAA-TAD expressed concern with compliance to the reference regulation based on an interpretation of the intent behind “trim”. The main issue being that longitudinal trim cannot be achieved throughout the flight envelope using thumb switch trim only.

EASA POSITION
Boeing set the thumb switch limits in order to increase the level of safety for out-of-trim dive characteristics(CS 25.255(a)(1)). The resulting thumb switch limits require an alternative trim method to meet CS 25.161trim requirements in certain corners of the operational envelope. The need to use the trim wheel is considered unusual, as it is only required for manual flight in those corners of the envelope.The increased safety provided by the Boeing design limits on the thumb switches (for out-of-trim dive characteristics) provides a compensating factor for the inability to use the thumb switches throughout the entire flight envelope. Furthermore, the additional crew procedures and training material will clearly explain to pilots the situations where use of the trim wheel may be needed due to lack of trim authority with the wheel mounted switches.The trim systems on the 737Max provide an appropriate level of safety relative to longitudinal trim capability.

What's the "aisle stand trim switch"? I thought those were cutout switches.
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:58 am

prebennorholm wrote:
New subject: There are also companies which are earning millions on the MAX grounding. Airlines with no MAX planes enjoy decreased competition from airlines with MAX planes, higher load factors and booming revenue management systems. In a totally fair world they should hand out part of their extra profit to Boeing, but that's not gonna happen.

Also airlines with MAX fleet enjoy higher load factors and higher average ticket prices than what would have been the case if 500 MAX planes world wide were flying instead of parked. They will conveniently forget to subtract that when they finally present their grounding bill to Boeing.



Wow - that is some leap. You Airbus/Airlines flying airbus's have gained. You now need to share that with poor old Boeing.
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:17 am

DenverTed wrote:
LDRA wrote:
7BOEING7 wrote:

Did you mean inhibited? Where did this information come from? IIRC it isn’t on the NG. Please enlighten.


Sorry should say inhibited. It is Max only, for detail see below

https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... S%2010.pdf

STATEMENT OF ISSUE
The aisle stand trim switches can be used to trim the airplane throughout the flight envelope and fully complies with the reference regulation Simulation has demonstrated that the thumb switch trim does not have enough authority to completely trim the aircraft longitudinally in certain corners of the flight envelope, e.g. gear up/flaps up, aft center of gravity, near Vmo/Mmo corner, and gear down/flaps up, at speeds above 230 kts.In those cases, longitudinal trim is achieved by using the manual stabilizer trim wheel to position the stabilizer. The trim wheel can be used to trim the airplane throughout the entire flight envelope.In addition, the autopilot has the authority to trim the airplane in these conditions.The reference regulation and policy do not specify the method of trim, nor do they state that when multiple pilot trim control paths exist that they must each independently be able to trim the airplane throughout the flight envelope.Boeing did not initially consider this to be a compliance issue because trim could always be achieved, even during the conditions where use of the aisle stand trim switch was required.Subsequent to flight testing, the FAA-TAD expressed concern with compliance to the reference regulation based on an interpretation of the intent behind “trim”. The main issue being that longitudinal trim cannot be achieved throughout the flight envelope using thumb switch trim only.

EASA POSITION
Boeing set the thumb switch limits in order to increase the level of safety for out-of-trim dive characteristics(CS 25.255(a)(1)). The resulting thumb switch limits require an alternative trim method to meet CS 25.161trim requirements in certain corners of the operational envelope. The need to use the trim wheel is considered unusual, as it is only required for manual flight in those corners of the envelope.The increased safety provided by the Boeing design limits on the thumb switches (for out-of-trim dive characteristics) provides a compensating factor for the inability to use the thumb switches throughout the entire flight envelope. Furthermore, the additional crew procedures and training material will clearly explain to pilots the situations where use of the trim wheel may be needed due to lack of trim authority with the wheel mounted switches.The trim systems on the 737Max provide an appropriate level of safety relative to longitudinal trim capability.

What's the "aisle stand trim switch"? I thought those were cutout switches.


Interesting question. The aisle stand "cutout" switches remove power from the system -- they're either ON of OFF so to speak. We have this "official looking statement" that doesn't even use the correct nomenclature gives me some concern or I guess it could be interpreted that if those switches are engaged the system will operate normally throughout the envelope. The other interesting statement is relative to the VMO/MMO corner which seems to indicate if you're doing VMO or MMO and aren't within "X" knots/Mach number of the corner there is no issue. Wonder what that number is?

Just to be clear I believe that statement has been there since the model was certified and didn't come about because of the MCAS issue.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:13 am

StTim wrote:
prebennorholm wrote:
New subject: There are also companies which are earning millions on the MAX grounding. Airlines with no MAX planes enjoy decreased competition from airlines with MAX planes, higher load factors and booming revenue management systems. In a totally fair world they should hand out part of their extra profit to Boeing, but that's not gonna happen.

Also airlines with MAX fleet enjoy higher load factors and higher average ticket prices than what would have been the case if 500 MAX planes world wide were flying instead of parked. They will conveniently forget to subtract that when they finally present their grounding bill to Boeing.



Wow - that is some leap. You Airbus/Airlines flying airbus's have gained. You now need to share that with poor old Boeing.

Yes, and the same applies to the oil companies, that gain(ed) from higher fuel consumption overall. :)

In truth, the MAX is bad luck for the airlines that have it and nobody can be asked to pay back the losses except Boeing. Leeham estimates, that Boeings final losses could come near to the dimension of a fully fledged new development program. Rather than financing the MAX grounding Boeing could have gotten the NSA or the NMA mostly for free.

The airlines on the other hand had business plans, that required the MAX to be delivered & operated in order to serve the network and realize fuel burn reductions. Of course the airlines liked the very competitive purchase prices Boeing offered. With hindsight, they probably better would have payed a bit more to get a less cheaply designed aircraft (because MCAS smells like a cheap&quick-solution allover).

But how competitive would the MAX have been, if it would have been designed safely from the beginning? EIS would surely have been delayed about the same time, as the grounding takes (because designing the systems rightly seems to take a lot longer than it took to create MCAS v1)? The MAX would have had EIS at the end of 2017 instead of in May 2017.

Something else to consider is Boeing reputation regarding groundings. Boeing now has superseded McDonnel Douglas in the number of grounded aircraft designs. Going by "experience" airlines might start to "calculating in" grounding phases for new Boeing designs. Flagging that risk correctly regarding "occurrence probability" (2 out of the last 3 were affected) and "impact" might start to give a dent to the overall business proposition of ordering unproven Boeing designs.
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majano
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:19 am

Francoflier wrote:
majano wrote:
Thank you for all these responses. If it is based on cost incurred, then I would agree that any cost "saved" due to the grounding has to be seen as a credit.


Boeing is saving the airlines' money by preventing them from spending it on new aircraft!
:rotfl:

(Sorry, couldn't resist)

Fair game. Not offended at all.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:19 am

 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:35 am

LDRA wrote:
STATEMENT OF ISSUE
The aisle stand trim switches can be used to trim the airplane throughout the flight envelope and fully complies with the reference regulation Simulation has demonstrated . . . .


What are "aisle stand trim switches"
Initially I thought they meant the trim cut off switches (as they are on the centre pedestal), but they aren't used to "trim the airplane throughout the flight envelope".

Can anyone enlighten me?
Thanks.

EDIT: just noticed I'm not the only one with this question. To me, that EASA quote would seem rather useless when it does not correctly describe the intended function of the switches.
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uta999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:43 pm

Is an MCAS type event (accident) more or less likely when the MAX-8 flies empty to a storage airport? Boeing are still flying these new builds around the US daily.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:55 pm

uta999 wrote:
Is an MCAS type event (accident) more or less likely when the MAX-8 flies empty to a storage airport? Boeing are still flying these new builds around the US daily.

The "MCAS type event" we have are both due to faulty Angle of Attack sensors causing the flawed MCAS 1.0 system to kick in, and the pilots not being able to recover.

If you either (a) have good AoA sensors -- OR -- (b) have pilots who can recover then you do not have a problem.

I think it's safe to presume that the company pilots Boeing uses on these flights are very well informed on recovery from faulty AoA triggering MCAS.

I would imagine some special training is a requirement of the special ferry permits authorizing these flights.
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IWMBH
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:59 pm

Revelation wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Is an MCAS type event (accident) more or less likely when the MAX-8 flies empty to a storage airport? Boeing are still flying these new builds around the US daily.

The "MCAS type event" we have are both due to faulty Angle of Attack sensors causing the flawed MCAS 1.0 system to kick in, and the pilots not being able to recover.

If you either (a) have good AoA sensors -- OR -- (b) have pilots who can recover then you do not have a problem.

I think it's safe to presume that the company pilots Boeing uses on these flights are very well informed on recovery from faulty AoA triggering MCAS.

I would imagine some special training is a requirement of the special ferry permits authorizing these flights.


This :checkmark: . The -Max is not as safe as other airplanes. But informed aircrew can counter a "MCAS type event'', especially when it is one of the only thing on their mind when they flying the aircraft.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:18 pm

IWMBH wrote:
Revelation wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Is an MCAS type event (accident) more or less likely when the MAX-8 flies empty to a storage airport? Boeing are still flying these new builds around the US daily.

The "MCAS type event" we have are both due to faulty Angle of Attack sensors causing the flawed MCAS 1.0 system to kick in, and the pilots not being able to recover.

If you either (a) have good AoA sensors -- OR -- (b) have pilots who can recover then you do not have a problem.

I think it's safe to presume that the company pilots Boeing uses on these flights are very well informed on recovery from faulty AoA triggering MCAS.

I would imagine some special training is a requirement of the special ferry permits authorizing these flights.


This :checkmark: . The -Max is not as safe as other airplanes. But informed aircrew can counter a "MCAS type event'', especially when it is one of the only thing on their mind when they flying the aircraft.

Much more sensible to fly @~20Kft, slow with Flaps 1, as they seem to do in Europe. Bit boring for US sky gods though.

Ray
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:48 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
Much more sensible to fly @~20Kft, slow with Flaps 1, as they seem to do in Europe. Bit boring for US sky gods though.

Flying at max alt/speed efficiency is doing their part to help save the environment, lol.
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LDRA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:15 pm

I don't know why EASA is calling manual trim system "aisle stand trim switches". Could be what Boeing is referring to manual trim system in their submitted document

The EASA document does specifically refers to trim wheel later in the same cited paragraphs
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:45 pm

LDRA wrote:
I don't know why EASA is calling manual trim system "aisle stand trim switches". Could be what Boeing is referring to manual trim system in their submitted document

The EASA document does specifically refers to trim wheel later in the same cited paragraphs

Reckon they just got their 'wheels' confused and tried to make it read comprehensibly (and failed).

If you read it as:

'Aisle mounted trim switches' = 'Aisle mounted trim wheels'
and
'Wheel mounted trim switches' = 'Yoke mounted trim switches'

It makes sense, although somewhat repetitive, another sign they were struggling with language by the way.

Ray
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:42 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/15/boeing- ... gs-on.html

Maybe news of what happened here will leak out.. I expect the lessors are losing patience.
 
maint123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:51 am

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48995509
"Boeing ditches 737 Max name on new Ryanair plane"

"A Boeing 737 Max due to be delivered to Ryanair has had the model's name changed on the nose of the aircraft, it has emerged.
Photos shared on Twitter show a plane in Ryanair colours outside Boeing's manufacturing base, with the name 737 Max replaced by 737-8200.
It has fuelled speculation that the troubled Max will be rebranded after two fatal accidents led to a worldwide grounding.
Boeing and Ryanair have yet to comment."

That's one way to solve the problem.
 
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MrBren
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:12 am

maint123 wrote:
That's one way to solve the problem.


Certainly not. Changing a name does not change the DNA.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:35 am

So now Ryanair are warning of routes being cut and base closures due to the 737MAX (or 737-8200).
No doubt they will want even more compensation from Boeing.
The bad PR for Boeing seems unending.. plus the way information leaks out does not do them any favours.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ys-459684/
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:58 am

flyingphil wrote:
So now Ryanair are warning of routes being cut and base closures due to the 737MAX (or 737-8200).
No doubt they will want even more compensation from Boeing.
The bad PR for Boeing seems unending.. plus the way information leaks out does not do them any favours.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ys-459684/



Well clearly Mr MOL is applying an excellent tactic here. He will certainly screw Boeing for every penny possible.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:14 pm

flyingphil wrote:
So now Ryanair are warning of routes being cut and base closures due to the 737MAX (or 737-8200).
No doubt they will want even more compensation from Boeing.
The bad PR for Boeing seems unending.. plus the way information leaks out does not do them any favours.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ys-459684/

It seems Boeing could not care less about bad PR. The only metric they have to answer for is stock price, and by that measure they are doing superb job. And no amount of bad press make the stock drop.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:30 pm

maint123 wrote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48995509
"Boeing ditches 737 Max name on new Ryanair plane"

We have an entire 737-8200 thread dedicated to this item.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426977

flyingphil wrote:
So now Ryanair are warning of routes being cut and base closures due to the 737MAX (or 737-8200).

And yet we read Ryanair CEO says confident in 'great' Boeing 737 MAX despite delays:

“While it is disappointing that we have delays, while it is disappointing that the growth for next year will be slightly slower than we had originally planned, we remain confident in the aircraft. We still think it is a great product,” O’Leary told a conference call with investors.

As soon as we can reasonably organize these deliveries with Boeing we would intend to take all of the 135 firm aircraft we have ordered over the next five years,” he said.

He seems to be working all the angles.

oschkosch wrote:
Well clearly Mr MOL is applying an excellent tactic here. He will certainly screw Boeing for every penny possible.

If he wanted to do that, he'd retain those employees and bases for those 135 737s he will be taking after the ungrounding and bill Boeing for the cost of keeping them.

I think this shows he's using the grounding as an excuse to trim excess employees and bases.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:31 pm

So is that a Boeing problem or the stockholders?
If Boeing only responds to them and they are keeping the stock price high, perhaps we are looking in the wrong place?
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:39 pm

par13del wrote:
So is that a Boeing problem or the stockholders?
If Boeing only responds to them and they are keeping the stock price high, perhaps we are looking in the wrong place?

Perhaps.

Too bad Boeing is owned by entities who at the moment are more concerned with preserving value of their stakes (i.e. keep stock from falling) rather than with fixing the issue. That's what being TBTF does to you.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:45 pm

Revelation wrote:

oschkosch wrote:
Well clearly Mr MOL is applying an excellent tactic here. He will certainly screw Boeing for every penny possible.

If he wanted to do that, he'd retain those employees and bases for those 135 737s he will be taking after the ungrounding and bill Boeing for the cost of keeping them.

I think this shows he's using the grounding as an excuse to trim excess employees and bases.


O'Leary will use it for everything possible to improve the bottom line, e.q. cuts in staff and bases and to squeeze every single cent he can grab out of Boeing. He would have switched to Airbus or any other aircraft he would have seen a business case in if it would have been cheaper, it is not like he has loyalty to anyone except money. This is of course legit and he is doing really well with Ryanair (except for the strikes and forgetting to give his crew enough holidays).

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