ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:08 am

seahawk wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
seahawk wrote:

So yeah, great influence.


But not on technical level. What is happening now has to happen the way it does and it is good that they are taking a close look at the processes, but on technical level this problem is easy to handle, maybe not easy given the current hardware on the 737MAX, but that is solely Boeing´s problem and if true it down to their decision making and not some technical hurdle.

There is no separation there. Once you decide how to handle things implementation might be easy (which is a universal statement, btw), but getting to that stage is hard. These are not two levels though. Why do you think Boeing could not come up with a fix for MCAS in almost half a year between Lion and ET? Nobody was looking at them. They could make the fix, deploy it, and the MAX would still be happily flying. Nobody would give them hard time for the other problem they are dealing with atm.

One guy here claiming to be from BA said they started to work on the fix immediately after Lion. And I believe him. And yet they failed to produce the fix before ET. Why? My guess - they simply could not come up with a workable logic that was not breaking something else. So maybe it is not so easy.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:13 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
seahawk wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:

But not on technical level. What is happening now has to happen the way it does and it is good that they are taking a close look at the processes, but on technical level this problem is easy to handle, maybe not easy given the current hardware on the 737MAX, but that is solely Boeing´s problem and if true it down to their decision making and not some technical hurdle.

There is no separation there. Once you decide how to handle things implementation might be easy (which is a universal statement, btw), but getting to that stage is hard. These are not two levels though. Why do you think Boeing could not come up with a fix for MCAS in almost half a year between Lion and ET? Nobody was looking at them. They could make the fix, deploy it, and the MAX would still be happily flying. Nobody would give them hard time for the other problem they are dealing with atm.

One guy here claiming to be from BA said they started to work on the fix immediately after Lion. And I believe him. And yet they failed to produce the fix before ET. Why? My guess - they simply could not come up with a workable logic that was not breaking something else. So maybe it is not so easy.

Afraid not in my view. The fix MCAS V2.0 is relatively simple. (it would have been cheap and easy to implement this design from the point MCAS was found required for slow speed stall approach as well as high speed).

The initial Boeing statement is pretty clear as well (remember the safe/safer one!):
'On Mar 12th 2019 Boeing issued following release with respect to MCAS, Lion Air Flight 610 and Ethiopian flight 302:

For the past several months and in the aftermath of Lion Air Flight 610, Boeing has been developing a flight control software enhancement for the 737 MAX, designed to make an already safe aircraft even safer. This includes updates to the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control law, pilot displays, operation manuals and crew training. The enhanced flight control law incorporates angle of attack (AOA) inputs, limits stabilizer trim commands in response to an erroneous angle of attack reading, and provides a limit to the stabilizer command in order to retain elevator authority.

The FAA says it anticipates mandating this software enhancement with an Airworthiness Directive (AD) no later than April. We have worked with the FAA in development of this software enhancement.'
avherald.com/h?article=4c534c4a/0052&opt=0

At this point, the target would have appeared to be end March for certification and at least some flight testing would have already been completed. Shortly thereafter, a problem was found with Flaps System and the first delay pushing the target to the April/May timeframe occurred. Draft FSB for MCAS V2.0 cert. was issued 17th April. Development and certification (including flight testing) of safety critical flight control software mod in 3 or 4 months is quick.

What it does indicate is that Boeing/FAA were in full possession of the facts i.e. MCAS was fundamentally flawed and hazardous almost immediately following the Lion Air event.

Ray
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:01 pm

Talking about additional delays after ET is pointless because it was already too late for quick fixes.

3-4 Month maybe is quick, but end of March would be full 5 month. Maybe I'm wrong, and they could not do it fast because they wanted to bundle up a whole bunch of fixes into a single update, instead of focusing on pushing through single most critical one. Then that is just compounding previous error. Also I fail to understand why they did not initiate full review of the plane's flight control system. All the new problems that are popping up now should have been discovered last year by Boeing itself, not by other parties.

In hindsight they are probably kicking themselves in nuts for not grounding the planes right after Lion. There was only 200 planes on operation at the time. I think they still could convince everyone the problems are limited to MCAS if they acted proactively.
Last edited by ArgentoSystems on Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:02 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
seahawk wrote:

There is no separation there. Once you decide how to handle things implementation might be easy (which is a universal statement, btw), but getting to that stage is hard. These are not two levels though. Why do you think Boeing could not come up with a fix for MCAS in almost half a year between Lion and ET? Nobody was looking at them. They could make the fix, deploy it, and the MAX would still be happily flying. Nobody would give them hard time for the other problem they are dealing with atm.

One guy here claiming to be from BA said they started to work on the fix immediately after Lion. And I believe him. And yet they failed to produce the fix before ET. Why? My guess - they simply could not come up with a workable logic that was not breaking something else. So maybe it is not so easy.

Afraid not in my view. The fix MCAS V2.0 is relatively simple. (it would have been cheap and easy to implement this design from the point MCAS was found required for slow speed stall approach as well as high speed).

The initial Boeing statement is pretty clear as well (remember the safe/safer one!):
'On Mar 12th 2019 Boeing issued following release with respect to MCAS, Lion Air Flight 610 and Ethiopian flight 302:

For the past several months and in the aftermath of Lion Air Flight 610, Boeing has been developing a flight control software enhancement for the 737 MAX, designed to make an already safe aircraft even safer. This includes updates to the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control law, pilot displays, operation manuals and crew training. The enhanced flight control law incorporates angle of attack (AOA) inputs, limits stabilizer trim commands in response to an erroneous angle of attack reading, and provides a limit to the stabilizer command in order to retain elevator authority.

The FAA says it anticipates mandating this software enhancement with an Airworthiness Directive (AD) no later than April. We have worked with the FAA in development of this software enhancement.'
avherald.com/h?article=4c534c4a/0052&opt=0

At this point, the target would have appeared to be end March for certification and at least some flight testing would have already been completed. Shortly thereafter, a problem was found with Flaps System and the first delay pushing the target to the April/May timeframe occurred. Draft FSB for MCAS V2.0 cert. was issued 17th April. Development and certification (including flight testing) of safety critical flight control software mod in 3 or 4 months is quick.

What it does indicate is that Boeing/FAA were in full possession of the facts i.e. MCAS was fundamentally flawed and hazardous almost immediately following the Lion Air event.

Ray

At that time (Mar 12th 2019) Boeing was confident hat it could provide the fixes en close the story quickly. There did not realized that the required actions was not only the fixes the deliveries but to analyse and fix how a such failure could happen in the first place. There did not realized how deeply the relation was broken with the agencies, the airlines and the public. Boeing learned the hard way that there need to fix itself in addition to fix the deliveries. And this take a far much longer time...
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:19 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
seahawk wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:

But not on technical level. What is happening now has to happen the way it does and it is good that they are taking a close look at the processes, but on technical level this problem is easy to handle, maybe not easy given the current hardware on the 737MAX, but that is solely Boeing´s problem and if true it down to their decision making and not some technical hurdle.

There is no separation there. Once you decide how to handle things implementation might be easy (which is a universal statement, btw), but getting to that stage is hard. These are not two levels though. Why do you think Boeing could not come up with a fix for MCAS in almost half a year between Lion and ET? Nobody was looking at them. They could make the fix, deploy it, and the MAX would still be happily flying. Nobody would give them hard time for the other problem they are dealing with atm. .


Because the target was to not only fix the MCAS but also keep the differences btw. a NG and a MAX as small as possible and create as little need for crew training as possible.

It is not wizardry to heal the MCAS.

1. fix rt the code
2. use at least 2 sensors
3. allow the crew to disable automatic trim systems without disabling manual electric trim
4. adjust the manuals
5. train MCAS failure
6. train roller coaster manoeuvrer
 
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InsideMan
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:49 pm

seahawk wrote:
3. allow the crew to disable automatic trim systems without disabling manual electric trim


that sounds tricky.... maybe someone with knowledge of the 737 system design can elaborate how this could be achieved
 
art
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:27 pm

I read earlier (source unknown) that a relative of a victim or victims was appealing to what I think was a government committee to dictate that the 737MAX should go through full certification as a different type to its ancestors. The reason he gave was that he thought it had become a different airplane.

Has that been reported here?
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:04 pm

InsideMan wrote:
seahawk wrote:
3. allow the crew to disable automatic trim systems without disabling manual electric trim


that sounds tricky.... maybe someone with knowledge of the 737 system design can elaborate how this could be achieved

The "STABILIZER TRIM MOTOR" assembly have a single motor but two controller inputs according the schematic http://avherald.com/img/ethiopian_b38m_et-avj_190310_10.jpg This assembly is the big box on the right of the image when oriented correctly.
One of the input is for the manual electric stab trim switches on the yokes: the "MAIN TRIM ENABLE SPEED & DIRECTION" box.
The other input is for all the automatic stab trim commands, including MCAS: the "AUTOPILOT ENABLE SPEED & DIRECTION" box.
The solution is to disable the second input while keeping the first input working.

Maybe a cutoff switch on the A/P ENABLE input signal of the "AUTOPILOT ENABLE SPEED & DIRECTION" box could be enough.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:06 pm

InsideMan wrote:
seahawk wrote:
3. allow the crew to disable automatic trim systems without disabling manual electric trim


that sounds tricky.... maybe someone with knowledge of the 737 system design can elaborate how this could be achieved

Even thought there were two switches on the NG to do this, was there a procedure that called for just flipping off the autopilot first and leaving the other switch on? Or, did all procedures for runaway trim just say flip off both switches?
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:21 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
Talking about additional delays after ET is pointless because it was already too late for quick fixes.

3-4 Month maybe is quick, but end of March would be full 5 month. Maybe I'm wrong, and they could not do it fast because they wanted to bundle up a whole bunch of fixes into a single update, instead of focusing on pushing through single most critical one. Then that is just compounding previous error. Also I fail to understand why they did not initiate full review of the plane's flight control system. All the new problems that are popping up now should have been discovered last year by Boeing itself, not by other parties.

In hindsight they are probably kicking themselves in nuts for not grounding the planes right after Lion. There was only 200 planes on operation at the time. I think they still could convince everyone the problems are limited to MCAS if they acted proactively.

You're trying to make too much of the time scale, in my opinion, Quick = Fast. It would have been in flight test by ~end February. The 'pipeline' mods in the same sort of period were incorporated in Version P12.0 of the FCC software issued around January 2019 (which, funnily enough, included a 5 min time limit on stick shaker continuous activation!!).

In the end, we get where you got to - The safe decision would be to ground the A/C immediately the problem became known. There was a gamble that the fix could be rolled-out before another catastrophic event.


Ray
 
art
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:30 pm

Relatives of 737 Max crash victims want regulators to re-certificate the troubled Boeing narrowbody as a completely new aircraft, and only after crash investigations are complete.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... fo-459728/
 
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sergegva
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:59 pm

I apologize for asking the question here, since I couldn't find the answer anywhere: when was the first commercial flight of the 737 MAX 9? I do have the date of the first delivery, but not the date of the first revenue flight. Thank you in advance
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:43 pm

art wrote:
Relatives of 737 Max crash victims want regulators to re-certificate the troubled Boeing narrowbody as a completely new aircraft, and only after crash investigations are complete.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... fo-459728/
very good idea IMO!!

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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:48 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
At that time (Mar 12th 2019) Boeing was confident hat it could provide the fixes en close the story quickly. There did not realized that the required actions was not only the fixes the deliveries but to analyse and fix how a such failure could happen in the first place. There did not realized how deeply the relation was broken with the agencies, the airlines and the public. Boeing learned the hard way that there need to fix itself in addition to fix the deliveries. And this take a far much longer time...

It's interesting how many posters to this thread and its predecessors keep expecting Boeing to have some sort of come to Jesus moment, yet I don't see any evidence of that happening.

As of 29 April, Boeing thought it had analyzed itself and found nothing amiss:

“We have gone back and taken a look at the design of the MCAS system itself, the original design. We have confirmed that it was designed per our standards, certified per our standards and we are confident in that process,” he says. “We haven’t seen a technical slip or gap in terms of the fundamental design or certification.”

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... lo-457769/

I'm not seeing any other evidence of what you are suggesting after that point in time either.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:02 pm

If anyone asks how much of a financial hit Boeing is taking over MCAS, it seems $7.3B is the current figure:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/busi ... harge.html
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smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:11 pm

Revelation wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
At that time (Mar 12th 2019) Boeing was confident hat it could provide the fixes en close the story quickly. There did not realized that the required actions was not only the fixes the deliveries but to analyse and fix how a such failure could happen in the first place. There did not realized how deeply the relation was broken with the agencies, the airlines and the public. Boeing learned the hard way that there need to fix itself in addition to fix the deliveries. And this take a far much longer time...

It's interesting how many posters to this thread and its predecessors keep expecting Boeing to have some sort of come to Jesus moment, yet I don't see any evidence of that happening.

As of 29 April, Boeing thought it had analyzed itself and found nothing amiss:

“We have gone back and taken a look at the design of the MCAS system itself, the original design. We have confirmed that it was designed per our standards, certified per our standards and we are confident in that process,” he says. “We haven’t seen a technical slip or gap in terms of the fundamental design or certification.”


Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... lo-457769/

I'm not seeing any other evidence of what you are suggesting after that point in time either.

But such position is based on the premise, Boeing and Boeing-employed FAA reps interpretation and implementation of said rules is 100% correct and accurate. And that no influence, duress or coercion existed between Boeing and Boeing-employed FAA reps and FAA employees.

The acid test of this, will be the communication trail following each accident, the corrective initiatives proposed after each, and the degree to which Boeing-employed FAA reps, and FAA employees were consulted / involved.

Presumably FBI investigations will follow these trails, and look at key 737 staff, including those no longer with the company, transferred to Brazil and further away, and check HR for one on one confidentiality agreements and payments.
 
FLALEFTY
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
If anyone asks how much of a financial hit Boeing is taking over MCAS, it seems $7.3B is the current figure:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/busi ... harge.html


And based on this old article in Flight Global, Boeing and CFM allegedly spent "only" between $3B-$4B for the entire 737MAX development program.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rt-367504/

Someone asked in another post if Boeing could simply "move" money from the defense/space division to the commercial division to cover the writeoff. The answer would likely be "No". Furthermore, Boeing is still writing off cost overruns caused by the troubled, KC-46 tanker program.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:45 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
Someone asked in another post if Boeing could simply "move" money from the defense/space division to the commercial division to cover the writeoff. The answer would likely be "No". Furthermore, Boeing is still writing off cost overruns caused by the troubled, KC-46 tanker program.


I don't see how it matters, it's all one company with a single stock market entity. It's not like Boeing Defence and Boeing Commercial are separate companies. That money will come out of Boeing's profits, it doesn't matter in the slightest which division caused it.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:48 pm

smartplane wrote:
But such position is based on the premise, Boeing and Boeing-employed FAA reps interpretation and implementation of said rules is 100% correct and accurate. And that no influence, duress or coercion existed between Boeing and Boeing-employed FAA reps and FAA employees.

The acid test of this, will be the communication trail following each accident, the corrective initiatives proposed after each, and the degree to which Boeing-employed FAA reps, and FAA employees were consulted / involved.

Presumably FBI investigations will follow these trails, and look at key 737 staff, including those no longer with the company, transferred to Brazil and further away, and check HR for one on one confidentiality agreements and payments.

I don't think a "come to Jesus" moment will come from NTSB accident reports being issued, it's common enough for vendors to disagree with findings.

I do think if any "smoking guns" are found by the FBI, then there will be such a moment, and I've been saying that ever since I heard of the FBI/DoJ investigation.

FLALEFTY wrote:
Furthermore, Boeing is still writing off cost overruns caused by the troubled, KC-46 tanker program.

I'm not sure about that. They've now delivered 12 frames ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_KC ... #Operators ) so there is now cash flowing in to cover the on-going FUD foul ups.
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:06 pm

scbriml wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
Someone asked in another post if Boeing could simply "move" money from the defense/space division to the commercial division to cover the writeoff. The answer would likely be "No". Furthermore, Boeing is still writing off cost overruns caused by the troubled, KC-46 tanker program.


I don't see how it matters, it's all one company with a single stock market entity. It's not like Boeing Defence and Boeing Commercial are separate companies. That money will come out of Boeing's profits, it doesn't matter in the slightest which division caused it.


One of Boeing's favorite weapons to use against Airbus is to pull out the issue of government subsidies. Therefore, I could see Airbus going to the WTO wailing against Boeing taking corporate profit writeoffs to "rescue" a troubled commercial program such as the 737MAX. This would be especially true if given evidence that Boeing's defense operations were providing most of the corporate operating profits. Being a public company, where Boeing's profits come from at the division level are all laid bare in their 10K filings.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:43 pm

Revelation wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
At that time (Mar 12th 2019) Boeing was confident hat it could provide the fixes en close the story quickly. There did not realized that the required actions was not only the fixes the deliveries but to analyse and fix how a such failure could happen in the first place. There did not realized how deeply the relation was broken with the agencies, the airlines and the public. Boeing learned the hard way that there need to fix itself in addition to fix the deliveries. And this take a far much longer time...

It's interesting how many posters to this thread and its predecessors keep expecting Boeing to have some sort of come to Jesus moment, yet I don't see any evidence of that happening.

As of 29 April, Boeing thought it had analyzed itself and found nothing amiss:

“We have gone back and taken a look at the design of the MCAS system itself, the original design. We have confirmed that it was designed per our standards, certified per our standards and we are confident in that process,” he says. “We haven’t seen a technical slip or gap in terms of the fundamental design or certification.”

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... lo-457769/

I'm not seeing any other evidence of what you are suggesting after that point in time either.

The evidences is that before the grounding Boeing was overconfident on the fixes timeline because there did not realized that there internal standards will not be trusted anymore by a number of agencies. The grounding is the moment you are looking for. And the current long process is Boeing fixing there internal standards to comply with the agencies standards.
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:50 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
scbriml wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
Someone asked in another post if Boeing could simply "move" money from the defense/space division to the commercial division to cover the writeoff. The answer would likely be "No". Furthermore, Boeing is still writing off cost overruns caused by the troubled, KC-46 tanker program.


I don't see how it matters, it's all one company with a single stock market entity. It's not like Boeing Defence and Boeing Commercial are separate companies. That money will come out of Boeing's profits, it doesn't matter in the slightest which division caused it.


One of Boeing's favorite weapons to use against Airbus is to pull out the issue of government subsidies. Therefore, I could see Airbus going to the WTO wailing against Boeing taking corporate profit writeoffs to "rescue" a troubled commercial program such as the 737MAX. This would be especially true if given evidence that Boeing's defense operations were providing most of the corporate operating profits. Being a public company, where Boeing's profits come from at the division level are all laid bare in their 10K filings.



There's no doubt that the military contracts will have checks and balances in them to prevent costs from commercial programmes being charged against military ones. But once the profit is in, and the cash is in, it is Boeing's to do whatever they want with. It doesn't go into a separate pot.
And whilst you can see a set of accounts for military as well as civil, you won't see a separate cashflow or net cash statement. That's only done at corporate level.
And as a point of order, it was US contractors ability to spend the roughly 10% profit margin and cash generation virtually guaranteed on Military programmes (at least until the KC46) to underwrite their civil airliner developments that prompted the development of RLI for Airbus as a response.

Rgds
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:54 am

astuteman wrote:
And as a point of order, it was US contractors ability to spend the roughly 10% profit margin and cash generation virtually guaranteed on Military programmes (at least until the KC46) to underwrite their civil airliner developments that prompted the development of RLI for Airbus as a response.

Rgds

So all the mention of local state taxes and tax breaks was just coincidental?
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:52 am

par13del wrote:
astuteman wrote:
And as a point of order, it was US contractors ability to spend the roughly 10% profit margin and cash generation virtually guaranteed on Military programmes (at least until the KC46) to underwrite their civil airliner developments that prompted the development of RLI for Airbus as a response.

Rgds

So all the mention of local state taxes and tax breaks was just coincidental?


No. But I was highlighting the primary driver behind the origin of RLI in the first place, not where the arguments subsequently went.

Rgds
 
klkla
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 2:00 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
scbriml wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
Someone asked in another post if Boeing could simply "move" money from the defense/space division to the commercial division to cover the writeoff. The answer would likely be "No". Furthermore, Boeing is still writing off cost overruns caused by the troubled, KC-46 tanker program.


I don't see how it matters, it's all one company with a single stock market entity. It's not like Boeing Defence and Boeing Commercial are separate companies. That money will come out of Boeing's profits, it doesn't matter in the slightest which division caused it.


One of Boeing's favorite weapons to use against Airbus is to pull out the issue of government subsidies. Therefore, I could see Airbus going to the WTO wailing against Boeing taking corporate profit writeoffs to "rescue" a troubled commercial program such as the 737MAX. This would be especially true if given evidence that Boeing's defense operations were providing most of the corporate operating profits. Being a public company, where Boeing's profits come from at the division level are all laid bare in their 10K filings.


They wouldn't have to "move" money. That's not how corporate accounting works.

The profits of both the military and civilian divisions are combined into the earnings of the corporation as a whole. They are free to use the proceeds how they see fit.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:53 am

seahawk wrote:
It is not wizardry to heal the MCAS.

1. fix rt the code
2. use at least 2 sensors
3. allow the crew to disable automatic trim systems without disabling manual electric trim
4. adjust the manuals
5. train MCAS failure
6. train roller coaster manoeuvrer


2- Potentially requires a system architecture changes. In a system, that is capacity constrained by hardware, as we learned. It's a huge unknown and can easily require some real creative wizardry to "heal it".
5, 6- These two points Boeing does not see as an option (too expensive).
6- That maneuver is no option close to the ground.


Revelation wrote:
As of 29 April, Boeing thought it had analyzed itself and found nothing amiss:
“We have gone back and taken a look at the design of the MCAS system itself, the original design. We have confirmed that it was designed per our standards, certified per our standards and we are confident in that process,” he says. “We haven’t seen a technical slip or gap in terms of the fundamental design or certification.”

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... lo-457769/

I'm not seeing any other evidence of what you are suggesting after that point in time either.

That is because you only listen to what Boeing said. In another forum a real MAX pilot was in total denial that MCAS even existed long after the ET crash! Why? Because all that she believed was the official Boeing information. And that was thin. So thin, that I never before have heard a pilot speaking so confused about an accident. No wonder, pilots could become overwhelmed by the MAX. And good that the planes wait one the ground until the level of knowledge among the pilots reaches the level of knowledge e.g. Leeham or Satcom guru readers have.

Revelation wrote:
If anyone asks how much of a financial hit Boeing is taking over MCAS, it seems $7.3B is the current figure:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/busi ... harge.html

So together with the MAX program cost, they would have gotten the NSA or the MOM program for free. Cutting time and cost to get MCAS v1 quickly in the air must be the worst business case of any aircraft system ever.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:58 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
seahawk wrote:
It is not wizardry to heal the MCAS.

1. fix rt the code
2. use at least 2 sensors
3. allow the crew to disable automatic trim systems without disabling manual electric trim
4. adjust the manuals
5. train MCAS failure
6. train roller coaster manoeuvrer


2- Potentially requires a system architecture changes. In a system, that is capacity constrained by hardware, as we learned. It's a huge unknown and can easily require some real creative wizardry to "heal it".
5, 6- These two points Boeing does not see as an option (too expensive).
6- That maneuver is no option close to the ground..


Neither of those are technical problems, they are only problems through commercial decisions. If you keep a system architecture that is very close to the limit for a major up-date, it might come with some drawbacks. If you sign contracts that your new version will require nearly no training for up-grades from the last version, it is a commercial decision. And yes the roller coaster has a limited effect near to the ground but training would also include detecting a trim runaway and probably stricter guidelines for the speed to not exceed.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 7:14 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
Revelation wrote:
If anyone asks how much of a financial hit Boeing is taking over MCAS, it seems $7.3B is the current figure:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/busi ... harge.html

So together with the MAX program cost, they would have gotten the NSA or the MOM program for free. Cutting time and cost to get MCAS v1 quickly in the air must be the worst business case of any aircraft system ever.

So, pretty much the only advantage the MAX has left, versus a clean sheet replacement, is that it was timely enough to compete sufficiently with the NEO. On the profit side, Boeing is taking a massive hit.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 7:25 am

Boeing is still pumping out heaps of 737MAX's. How many do they have parked at the final assembly line?

Surely they will run out of space soon?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 7:31 am

If I were Boeing I’d ask Airbus to jump in and help solve the problem. The’ve got experience with FBW and software based flying models. And If I were Airbus I’d jump in immediately. It’s in interest of both for so many reasons. They should work closely and secretly and make the 737Max fly again asap.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 7:44 am

Revelation wrote:
If anyone asks how much of a financial hit Boeing is taking over MCAS, it seems $7.3B is the current figure:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/busi ... harge.html


Its not the best article I hope it will be followed by one that gives a bit more clarification:

Is the 1B hit from Q1 included in this figure and as Q3 will probably be lost aswell, can we estimate another 5.6B on top or are the 5.6B for all expected costs with the expectation to have the aircraft flying again (limited) in Q4?

And we at least know the number will rise, as litigation is not included yet. This is expected as the court cases will take years and therefore the litigation will kick in in future years, but legal fees will pile up a lot.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:19 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Is the 1B hit from Q1 included in this figure and as Q3 will probably be lost aswell, can we estimate another 5.6B on top or are the 5.6B for all expected costs with the expectation to have the aircraft flying again (limited) in Q4?

And we at least know the number will rise, as litigation is not included yet. This is expected as the court cases will take years and therefore the litigation will kick in in future years, but legal fees will pile up a lot.


5.6B can't possibly include losses for Q3 and Q4. They lose 500M per month (in revenues) just from the lost productivity. They make 10 planes less than 52 originally, and that production capacity is lost forever. But remember, their original plan (prior to ET) was to start making 57 plans in Jun or Jul'19. So starting from Q3 their permanent productivity losses are 750M per month. As you can see, these losses alone for Q2 Q3 Q4 will exceed 5.6B figure.

Also, each subsequent quarter the cost of grounding goes up. In Q1 there was only 350 planes grounded. Now it is getting close to 500. So more airlines are affected, and to greater extent.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:48 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Is the 1B hit from Q1 included in this figure and as Q3 will probably be lost aswell, can we estimate another 5.6B on top or are the 5.6B for all expected costs with the expectation to have the aircraft flying again (limited) in Q4?

And we at least know the number will rise, as litigation is not included yet. This is expected as the court cases will take years and therefore the litigation will kick in in future years, but legal fees will pile up a lot.


5.6B can't possibly include losses for Q3 and Q4. They lose 500M per month (in revenues) just from the lost productivity. They make 10 planes less than 52 originally, and that production capacity is lost forever. But remember, their original plan (prior to ET) was to start making 57 plans in Jun or Jul'19. So starting from Q3 their permanent productivity losses are 750M per month. As you can see, these losses alone for Q2 Q3 Q4 will exceed 5.6B figure.

Also, each subsequent quarter the cost of grounding goes up. In Q1 there was only 350 planes grounded. Now it is getting close to 500. So more airlines are affected, and to greater extent.


If your assumptions are correct, the 5.6B$ are 5.3million$ per aircraft per month in Q2. Projected with 500 for the months of July/August/September that is another 8B$ in Q3. This seems to be really high and if this would be the case then the share price would have dropped significantly, because then a 7 month grounding (Q2+Q3+march) would cost 5.6B$+8B$+1B$+1.7B$(future costs of production)+XXXB$ for litigation. In best case it is around 20B$. Even without development costs, thats 4 million per aircraft (Backlog of 5000 aircraft). Development cost, litigation cost and the 1 million penalty (probably not all customers) if sim training is required, the break even for the MAX aircraft would be the production costs + ca. 5million$.

With this (to be fair really inaccurate) calculation it would be rather difficult to make a profit of your most successful product and that are not good news at all.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:07 am

I did not imply that 5.6B covers ONLY the Q2. It probably somewhat covers Q3 and Q4, just not entirely.

I did not really think in terms per plane cost... Even 1M is per plane is lot. That is like 5% of their profits.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:09 am

FluidFlow wrote:
And we at least know the number will rise, as litigation is not included yet. This is expected as the court cases will take years and therefore the litigation will kick in in future years, but legal fees will pile up a lot.


Boeing will settle all litigation out of court. The only way they’ll end up in court is if a government agency takes them there.
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StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Is the 1B hit from Q1 included in this figure and as Q3 will probably be lost aswell, can we estimate another 5.6B on top or are the 5.6B for all expected costs with the expectation to have the aircraft flying again (limited) in Q4?

And we at least know the number will rise, as litigation is not included yet. This is expected as the court cases will take years and therefore the litigation will kick in in future years, but legal fees will pile up a lot.


5.6B can't possibly include losses for Q3 and Q4. They lose 500M per month (in revenues) just from the lost productivity. They make 10 planes less than 52 originally, and that production capacity is lost forever. But remember, their original plan (prior to ET) was to start making 57 plans in Jun or Jul'19. So starting from Q3 their permanent productivity losses are 750M per month. As you can see, these losses alone for Q2 Q3 Q4 will exceed 5.6B figure.

Also, each subsequent quarter the cost of grounding goes up. In Q1 there was only 350 planes grounded. Now it is getting close to 500. So more airlines are affected, and to greater extent.


You are partially correct.

Because of the lower build rate Boeing are losing out on revenues that they would otherwise have booked.

BUT you are absolutely wrong to say this is part of the money that Boeing have just set aside. That is set aside to pay cash out to vendors, airlines, leasing companies, etc etc whilst the planes are grounded and not being delivered.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:52 am

capshandler wrote:
If I were Boeing I’d ask Airbus to jump in and help solve the problem. The’ve got experience with FBW and software based flying models. And If I were Airbus I’d jump in immediately. It’s in interest of both for so many reasons. They should work closely and secretly and make the 737Max fly again asap.


Boeing has lots of experience of FBW on its other planes.. but stuck with the old cables and pulleys for the 737MAX.
Maybe Embraer could pitch in, but there is not much you can do with such an old design.

I hope someone at Boeing is looking at doomsday scenarios .. and ‘what if’s’
What if the FAA want a new trim wheel that does not require a bodybuilder to operate it
What if they want a third AoA vane
What if they want aerodynamic changes, vortex generators, etc, etc
Changes that will cost more than the value of the frames..

How far away are Boeing from a 737 replacement?
Here is an idea.. Boeing does a lot of business with China, the Comac C919 is already flying, it has western engines and avionics... why not partner up with them?

Anyway .. will get back in my box now :)
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:06 am

FluidFlow wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Is the 1B hit from Q1 included in this figure and as Q3 will probably be lost aswell, can we estimate another 5.6B on top or are the 5.6B for all expected costs with the expectation to have the aircraft flying again (limited) in Q4?

And we at least know the number will rise, as litigation is not included yet. This is expected as the court cases will take years and therefore the litigation will kick in in future years, but legal fees will pile up a lot.


5.6B can't possibly include losses for Q3 and Q4. They lose 500M per month (in revenues) just from the lost productivity. They make 10 planes less than 52 originally, and that production capacity is lost forever. But remember, their original plan (prior to ET) was to start making 57 plans in Jun or Jul'19. So starting from Q3 their permanent productivity losses are 750M per month. As you can see, these losses alone for Q2 Q3 Q4 will exceed 5.6B figure.

Also, each subsequent quarter the cost of grounding goes up. In Q1 there was only 350 planes grounded. Now it is getting close to 500. So more airlines are affected, and to greater extent.


If your assumptions are correct, the 5.6B$ are 5.3million$ per aircraft per month in Q2. Projected with 500 for the months of July/August/September that is another 8B$ in Q3. This seems to be really high and if this would be the case then the share price would have dropped significantly, because then a 7 month grounding (Q2+Q3+march) would cost 5.6B$+8B$+1B$+1.7B$(future costs of production)+XXXB$ for litigation. In best case it is around 20B$. Even without development costs, thats 4 million per aircraft (Backlog of 5000 aircraft). Development cost, litigation cost and the 1 million penalty (probably not all customers) if sim training is required, the break even for the MAX aircraft would be the production costs + ca. 5million$.

With this (to be fair really inaccurate) calculation it would be rather difficult to make a profit of your most successful product and that are not good news at all.


5 Million per plane is a bit high but for some customers the monthly costs are not minor. If you have financed the plane, you will pay interest for the money that has been booked for a certain date. You might have to pay lease rates for replacement aircraft or have to charter planes. In addition those planes have probably higher operating costs and maybe less revenue, if you had to charter a 700 instead of your 8MAX. Others may decide to not open routes or have to put existing frames through expensive maintenance cycles due to the delay. A million per months is easy to reach and that is just for the extra costs created without any penalties for the delayed deliveries.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:36 am

capshandler wrote:
If I were Boeing I’d ask Airbus to jump in and help solve the problem. The’ve got experience with FBW and software based flying models. And If I were Airbus I’d jump in immediately. It’s in interest of both for so many reasons. They should work closely and secretly and make the 737Max fly again asap.

You do know that Boeing makes aircraft other than the 737 that do have FBW, right?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:42 am

seahawk wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:

5.6B can't possibly include losses for Q3 and Q4. They lose 500M per month (in revenues) just from the lost productivity. They make 10 planes less than 52 originally, and that production capacity is lost forever. But remember, their original plan (prior to ET) was to start making 57 plans in Jun or Jul'19. So starting from Q3 their permanent productivity losses are 750M per month. As you can see, these losses alone for Q2 Q3 Q4 will exceed 5.6B figure.

Also, each subsequent quarter the cost of grounding goes up. In Q1 there was only 350 planes grounded. Now it is getting close to 500. So more airlines are affected, and to greater extent.


If your assumptions are correct, the 5.6B$ are 5.3million$ per aircraft per month in Q2. Projected with 500 for the months of July/August/September that is another 8B$ in Q3. This seems to be really high and if this would be the case then the share price would have dropped significantly, because then a 7 month grounding (Q2+Q3+march) would cost 5.6B$+8B$+1B$+1.7B$(future costs of production)+XXXB$ for litigation. In best case it is around 20B$. Even without development costs, thats 4 million per aircraft (Backlog of 5000 aircraft). Development cost, litigation cost and the 1 million penalty (probably not all customers) if sim training is required, the break even for the MAX aircraft would be the production costs + ca. 5million$.

With this (to be fair really inaccurate) calculation it would be rather difficult to make a profit of your most successful product and that are not good news at all.


5 Million per plane is a bit high but for some customers the monthly costs are not minor. If you have financed the plane, you will pay interest for the money that has been booked for a certain date. You might have to pay lease rates for replacement aircraft or have to charter planes. In addition those planes have probably higher operating costs and maybe less revenue, if you had to charter a 700 instead of your 8MAX. Others may decide to not open routes or have to put existing frames through expensive maintenance cycles due to the delay. A million per months is easy to reach and that is just for the extra costs created without any penalties for the delayed deliveries.


I think we talk about the same, if you have 1 million per month in costs, after 7 months (March till September) of grounding you have 7 million you claim from Boeing, Multiply this by 350 aircraft and you are at 2.45B$. On top of that you the penalties for late deliveries and the additional costs for the not delivered aircraft, which increase over time. Penalties for sim training and litigation payouts. The reduced production rates and therefore even more delayed deliveries far down the backlog.

I estimate even if the aircraft is cleared for flying for October, the actual damages for Boeing will be 10B$+. With a Backlog of 5000 aircraft that is 2 million additional costs per frame. If Boeing wants to keep the same profit, the price per 737 Max has to be increased by 2 million. If Boeing has to keep the selling price then they lose 2 million in profits per sold frame. That is a lot and only the best case estimation.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:48 am

scbriml wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
And we at least know the number will rise, as litigation is not included yet. This is expected as the court cases will take years and therefore the litigation will kick in in future years, but legal fees will pile up a lot.


Boeing will settle all litigation out of court. The only way they’ll end up in court is if a government agency takes them there.




Now obviously I am not a lawyer, but my understanding is that is takes 2 sides to settle out of court. Someone (i.e. Boeing) makes an offer for settlement, the other party accepts. Can the other party be forced to settle outside of court? I think no.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:02 am

flyingphil wrote:
Here is an idea.. Boeing does a lot of business with China, the Comac C919 is already flying, it has western engines and avionics... why not partner up with them?


Here's a reality check: Trump has done his utmost to alienate relations with China. COMAC is a government owned entity. You do the math.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:04 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Is the 1B hit from Q1 included in this figure and as Q3 will probably be lost aswell, can we estimate another 5.6B on top or are the 5.6B for all expected costs with the expectation to have the aircraft flying again (limited) in Q4?

And we at least know the number will rise, as litigation is not included yet. This is expected as the court cases will take years and therefore the litigation will kick in in future years, but legal fees will pile up a lot.


5.6B can't possibly include losses for Q3 and Q4. They lose 500M per month (in revenues) just from the lost productivity. They make 10 planes less than 52 originally, and that production capacity is lost forever. But remember, their original plan (prior to ET) was to start making 57 plans in Jun or Jul'19. So starting from Q3 their permanent productivity losses are 750M per month. As you can see, these losses alone for Q2 Q3 Q4 will exceed 5.6B figure.

Production is lower. But cost will also be lower'they don't have to buy engines, avionics, wings, bolts, nuts etc. for planes not being produced. Chances are that their labor force will also be somewhat lower. I guess what I'm trying to say is that lost production income does not equal losses. Costs are also going down. Not to the same extent of course.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:04 am

So what is the latest planned date of the planes flying again?
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:19 am

PW100 wrote:
Production is lower. But cost will also be lower'they don't have to buy engines, avionics, wings, bolts, nuts etc. for planes not being produced. Chances are that their labor force will also be somewhat lower. I guess what I'm trying to say is that lost production income does not equal losses. Costs are also going down. Not to the same extent of course.


Wrong.
1.They continue to pay for 52 of everything per month - engines, nuts, bolts., hulls
2.They did not fire anybody, so no saving on labor either.
3. I gave estimate of their loss of revenues. Costs has nothing at all to do with that.

Think about it this way: Company shuts down for a week long mandatory unpaid vacation. Nothing to buy, no workers to pay. By your logic, company does not lose anything since there are no out of pocket payments.
Last edited by ArgentoSystems on Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:23 am

Mystic wrote:
So what is the latest planned date of the planes flying again?


No such plan exists, at least not outside the wet dreams of Boeing executives. Boeing have provided ever deteriorating forecasts, whereas the FAA had made clear they're not working on a time-line bound schedule, rather a task based one. The other regulators of the world are keeping silent, as they have nothing to win by setting an expected return to service date, only to be blindsided when yet another spectre emerges from the dungeons of Boeing ineptitude.

Early 2020 looks more likely by the day, but it can go both ways - albeit forward moving seems way less plausible than the opposite.
Last edited by B777LRF on Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:23 am

StTim wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
5.6B can't possibly include losses for Q3 and Q4.


You are partially correct.

BUT you are absolutely wrong to say this is part of the money that Boeing have just set aside.

I never said that. I only showed that 5.6B figure can't possibly be the final bill.
 
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capshandler
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:38 am

par13del wrote:
capshandler wrote:
If I were Boeing I’d ask Airbus to jump in and help solve the problem. The’ve got experience with FBW and software based flying models. And If I were Airbus I’d jump in immediately. It’s in interest of both for so many reasons. They should work closely and secretly and make the 737Max fly again asap.

You do know that Boeing makes aircraft other than the 737 that do have FBW, right?


I do, but don't seem to work don't you think?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:44 am

oschkosch wrote:
Now obviously I am not a lawyer, but my understanding is that is takes 2 sides to settle out of court. Someone (i.e. Boeing) makes an offer for settlement, the other party accepts. Can the other party be forced to settle outside of court? I think no.


Of course, but the reality is that the vast majority of litigation against large corporations doesn’t end up in court. Eventually, Boeing will offer enough to “make it go away”.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:05 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
StTim wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
5.6B can't possibly include losses for Q3 and Q4.

You are partially correct.

BUT you are absolutely wrong to say this is part of the money that Boeing have just set aside.

I never said that. I only showed that 5.6B figure can't possibly be the final bill.

Perhaps not the final bill, but the market is treating it as a clear signal from Boeing that it thinks the worst is over.

Leeham quotes Cowan Research:

Key takeaway from yesterday’s Q2 preannounce was that BA assumes “return to service early in Q4in line with our estimates and plans to reach 57/month in 2020 vs. our assumption of a 52/month peak. While timing of return to service obviously is in the hands of the regulators, we assume that BA’s timing comments are based on its extensive interactions with regulators. Furthermore, its willingness to publicly target reaching 57/month next year presumably reflects discussions with customers indicating sufficient demand to warrant taking the rate up to that level.

Lots of similar analysis at https://leehamnews.com/2019/07/19/analy ... ouncement/
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